2024 NBA Draft Thread

[baseline bum]

One of the whole 'small guards' thing here is of course you want tall guards, but who else are you going to draft in this lottery?

You can either get a guard with superior skills (exceptional scoring, ball-handling, compe iveness, clutchness) - OR - you can draft a less talented player just because they're tall.

We can talk theoreticals or we can talk about who is actually available.

Ugh if the Spurs draft Topic just for size and he ends up costing the Spurs series when no one guards him at the three point line just like Aaron Gordon is costing the Nuggets this series with Minnesota. Or just like Turkoglu vs the Lakers in 04 when no one guarded him at the three point line.

[spurraider21]

Ugh if the Spurs draft Topic just for size and he ends up costing the Spurs series when no one guards him at the three point line just like Aaron Gordon is costing the Nuggets this series with Minnesota. Or just like Turkoglu vs the Lakers in 04 when no one guarded him at the three point line.

mother ers got away with ignoring a career 38% 3 point shooter who had hit 42% during that season

spurs still gave up on him too soon tbh

[baseline bum]

mother ers got away with ignoring a career 38% 3 point shooter who had hit 42% during that season

spurs still gave up on him too soon tbh

Yeah but they knew he was soft and scared of the moment and that was their hail mary in the series per Tex Winter

[R. DeMurre]

You are such a sheep for media talking heads

here is Givony’s 2021 mock draft where he got everything wrong after the top 3 (the top 3 was obvious to anybody):

1. Detroit Pistons: Cade Cunningham
2. Houston Rockets: Jalen Green
3. Cleveland Cavaliers: Evan Mobley
4. Toronto Raptors: Jalen Suggs
5. Orlando Magic: Scottie Barnes
6. Oklahoma City Thunder: James
   Bouknight
7. Golden State Warriors: Franz Wagner
   (Previously - Jonathan Kuminga)
8. Orlando Magic: Jonathan Kuminga
   (Previously - Moses Moody)
9. Sacramento Kings: Moses Moody
   (Previously - Franz Wagner)
10. Memphis Grizzlies: Josh Giddey
    (Previous/v/Same Position - Josh
    Giddey to New Orleans)
11. Charlotte Hornets: Corey Kispert
12. San Antonio Spurs: Alperen Sengun
13. Indiana Pacers: Davion Mitc
14. Golden State Warriors: Chris Duarte
15. Washington Wizards: Trey Murphy

One could argue this is a hit for Givony and a miss for Golden State, and a good example of a media talking head making a better choice than a professional NBA GM & FO.

[Ariel]

One could argue this is a hit for Givony and a miss for Golden State, and a good example of a media talking head making a better choice than a professional NBA GM & FO.

Plenty of teams drafting worse than consensus, and arguably that includes the Spurs if we're just considering the past 5 years. No sense paying a whole bunch of scouts if you can't consistently beat random internet mocks.

[spurraider21]

You are such a sheep for media talking heads

here is Givony’s 2021 mock draft where he got everything wrong after the top 3 (the top 3 was obvious to anybody):

1. Detroit Pistons: Cade Cunningham - actual draft position: 1
2. Houston Rockets: Jalen Green - actual draft position: 2
3. Cleveland Cavaliers: Evan Mobley - actual draft position: 3
4. Toronto Raptors: Jalen Suggs - actual draft position: 5 (off by 1)
5. Orlando Magic: Scottie Barnes - actual draft position: 4 (off by 1)
6. Oklahoma City Thunder: James - actual draft position: 11 (off by 5)
   Bouknight
7. Golden State Warriors: Franz Wagner - actual draft position: 8 (off by 1)
   (Previously - Jonathan Kuminga)
8. Orlando Magic: Jonathan Kuminga - actual draft position: 7 (off by 1)
   (Previously - Moses Moody)
9. Sacramento Kings: Moses Moody - actual draft position: 14 (off by 5)
   (Previously - Franz Wagner)
10. Memphis Grizzlies: Josh Giddey - actual draft position: 6 (off by 4)
    (Previous/v/Same Position - Josh
    Giddey to New Orleans)
11. Charlotte Hornets: Corey Kispert - actual draft position: 15 (off by 4)
12. San Antonio Spurs: Alperen Sengun - actual draft position: 16 (off by 4)
13. Indiana Pacers: Davion Mitc - actual draft position: 9 (off by 4)
14. Golden State Warriors: Chris Duarte - actual draft position: 13 (off by 1)
15. Washington Wizards: Trey Murphy - actual draft position: 17 (off by 2)

this is actually very good accuracy as far as nailing how the players are evaluated/valued around the league. has average margin error was 2.2 picks. thats not bad at all

[R. DeMurre]

Plenty of teams drafting worse than consensus, and arguably that includes the Spurs if we're just considering the past 5 years. No sense paying a whole bunch of scouts if you can't consistently beat random internet mocks.

I noticed that Dean (of Dean on Draft fame, https://twitter.com/deanondraft), a guy that often outdrafts pro GMs, hasn't posted anything since January, which is very unusual for him. My guess is he has been hired as a consultant by some NBA team and is keeping quiet on the analysis front, so as not to give away any insights.

[Biggems]

Yes, I'm looking forward to his combine, he's invited, I think he might get to 6-9 in shoes.

He's been at 4 different colleges in 4 years, I think that some stability in an organization and g-league might unlock some things and he could turn into a real player, he already has interesting analytics in college. He absolutely can't shoot right now, but has shown be can make progress going from 49% free throw 3 as a junior to 63%

right now, I feel he is a UDFA. He can change that by killing it at the combine and in interviews with teams. If he is a UDFA, I hope the Spurs pounce like a fat man at a buffet

[Degoat]

Do y’all think Nikola Topic has the same ceiling as Josh Giddey? Minus being a perv I always thought Giddey fit into the spurs mold as a player.

[Vienna]

You can either get a guard with superior skills (exceptional scoring, ball-handling, compe iveness, clutchness) - OR - you can draft a less talented player just because they're tall.

first off, the Spurs are not bound to draft a guard in this draft. and second, why not add defensive to those superior skills? that's why, if the Spurs draft a guard at all with their own pick, I prefer Castle over Dillingham. (I wouldn't want Topic, at least not with the Spurs pick. if they pick him with the Raptors pick at 7 or later....ok, I can live with it)

I think we have a different approach to this draft, because you don't see Risacher as a legitimate option in case Spurs win the lottery. my approach is, if they win a top pick, let's use it on Risacher. (if he's there). if they don't win and draft later, let's think about Cody Williams. he kind of went from overrated to underrated. at 6 or 7 I can see him as the right pick. I think especially the later injury hurt his stock to much, after the ankle injury in late February he wasn't the same. so I give him the benefit of the doubt.

[JPB]

[/LIST]

this is actually very good accuracy as far as nailing how the players are evaluated/valued around the league. has average margin error was 2.2 picks. thats not bad at all

Yup, specially if you consider GMs making bad picks and the ones they should have made. Again, a mock draft isn't about predicting what every team is gonna do, it's about ranking players on perceived value, specially the ones made before we do even know where every team is gonna pick.

As far as size is concerned picking Miller over Scoot last year, because of size and versatility vs. "superior skills, ball handlings and scoring abilities", and the outcome of that, is gonna go a long way for Risacher being picked #1 over shorter guards in this draft.

[Ariel]

Yup, specially if you consider GMs making bad picks and the ones they should have made. Again, a mock draft isn't about predicting what every team is gonna do, it's about ranking players on perceived value, specially the ones made before we do even know where every team is gonna pick

Mock drafts are team specific, rankings based on value are called big boards.

[Dejounte]

One could argue this is a hit for Givony and a miss for Golden State, and a good example of a media talking head making a better choice than a professional NBA GM & FO.

This same mock also had Sengun at 12, and other bad misses (like Trey Murphy) so it’s not really making good choices overall. My argument isn’t about teams making better choices than media talking heads.

[Dejounte]

Plenty of teams drafting worse than consensus, and arguably that includes the Spurs if we're just considering the past 5 years. No sense paying a whole bunch of scouts if you can't consistently beat random internet mocks.

Teams drafting worse than consensus doesn’t mean the consensus is correct. The consensus gets it wrong plenty of times too.

[Dejounte]

[/LIST]

this is actually very good accuracy as far as nailing how the players are evaluated/valued around the league. has average margin error was 2.2 picks. thats not bad at all

Let me clarify my point here in that these mock drafts being semi-accurate or whatever is not relevant to how most readers perceive mock drafts in general. An individual generally views players at the top as better than players mocked later. That’s just how it is and there’s so much evidence that it’s wrong. So relying on how these prospects are ordered by media talking heads to gauge talent is the wrong choice since time and time again we see how everything ends up in a re-draft.

[Ariel]

Teams drafting worse than consensus doesn’t mean the consensus is correct. The consensus gets it wrong plenty of times too.

Of course, but I never said that. My point is that's the bare minimum standard any should measure themselves against. If you get consistently outperformed by consensus mock drafts, then you might as well be replaced by a 5 liner bot.

[Dejounte]

Of course, but I never said that. My point is that's the bare minimum standard any should measure themselves against. If you get consistently outperformed by consensus mock drafts, then you might as well be replaced by a 5 liner bot.

Sound reasoning at first but after some thought I’m not sure I agree with that. Teams doing their due diligence that writers of these mock drafts can’t do such as in-person accounts of players by team scouts, reviewing collected tape over the years, analytics, interviews, workouts, scrimmages should be the baseline… not these mock drafts. Because again, in a re-draft, all mock drafts (and big boards) are consistently wrong in terms of how players are ranked talent-wise. And yes, even after teams do their due diligence they can get it wrong. But that has more to do with that team and their personnel than the process itself.

[spurraider21]

Let me clarify my point here in that these mock drafts being semi-accurate or whatever is not relevant to how most readers perceive mock drafts in general. An individual generally views players at the top as better than players mocked later. That’s just how it is and there’s so much evidence that it’s wrong. So relying on how these prospects are ordered by media talking heads to gauge talent is the wrong choice since time and time again we see how everything ends up in a re-draft.

Strong disagree. Mock drafts are meant to give fans a preview of how the drafts are expected to go. Yes in part this is done by the mock drafter evaluating prospects (or just parroting off others) to estimate how high that given player is expected to go.

i never look at mock drafts and mean “oh that means this guy being mocked at 25 is destined to be an nba failure” or “this guy in the top 10 is a sure fire good starter.” Nobody evaluates any sport with 100% accuracy. But yeah generally the more successful nba players are the ones picked at the top.

[Uriel]

5. San Antonio Spurs | Average pick: 5.0

No. 1 pick odds: 10.5% | Top-three pick odds: 31.6%
If they land in the top four, they should pick ...
1. Rob Dillingham
2. Nikola Topic
3. Reed Sheppard
4. Zaccharie Risacher

Most likely pick if they stay at 5: Rob Dillingham | PG

The Spurs struck gold in last year's draft lottery, and this year is icing on the cake while building around Victor Wembanyama's star power. The Spurs' messy Jeremy Sochan experiment only amplified the need for a point guard who can complement Wembanyama's extraordinary skill level, making the draft's top backcourt prospects the natural place to look regardless of where this pick lands.

Dillingham's combination of perimeter shooting, ballhandling and pick-and-roll playmaking gives him significant offensive potential to grow into long term. His size and defensive limitations could be mitigated alongside a future Defensive Player of the Year-caliber rim-protector such as Wembanyama cleaning up mistakes behind him.

Topic is the best passer in this class and has enviable size that allows for significant flexibility in roster construction. He can reliably get the ball where it needs to be but has some questions about his perimeter shooting.

Sheppard's outstanding perimeter shooting, feel for the game and unselfish style of play also make for an intriguing fit for the Spurs both short term and long term. His average physical tools might not be an issue alongside Wembanyama, who could take pressure off Sheppard on both ends of the floor.

Risacher is another safe option in many ways, even if he doesn't answer any of the immediate questions the Spurs have in the backcourt. -- Givony

https://www.espn.com/nba/insider/sto...dds-every-team

[Uriel]

If Givony says Dillingham and timvp says Dillingham, then Dillingham must be our man.

[Pauleta14]

If Givony says Dillingham and timvp says Dillingham, then Dillingham must be our man.

Genuine question... Has Givony or any other renown journalist ever been right in his predictions? and When? (Wemby aside of course)

[Dejounte]

Strong disagree. Mock drafts are meant to give fans a preview of how the drafts are expected to go. Yes in part this is done by the mock drafter evaluating prospects (or just parroting off others) to estimate how high that given player is expected to go.

i never look at mock drafts and mean “oh that means this guy being mocked at 25 is destined to be an nba failure” or “this guy in the top 10 is a sure fire good starter.” Nobody evaluates any sport with 100% accuracy. But yeah generally the more successful nba players are the ones picked at the top.

You are in the minority in the statements you make in your second paragraph and you know it. There are mountains of posts on here of guys saying they have very low to no expectations from players selected outside the lottery. Even the ones drafted in late lottery people think there’s no hope for them. Half of the all stars this year were selected after the 10th pick, which tells you again that writers are often wrong about how they evaluate prospects. You may say, “mock drafts are meant to give a preview…” and that fans don’t use it as a means to rank talent but that’s again off base because you have people wanting to trade up in the draft year after year which tells you they think those players mocked at the top are of greater talent then talent picked later.

[Ariel]

Sound reasoning at first but after some thought I’m not sure I agree with that. Teams doing their due diligence that writers of these mock drafts can’t do such as in-person accounts of players by team scouts, reviewing collected tape over the years, analytics, interviews, workouts, scrimmages should be the baseline… not these mock drafts. Because again, in a re-draft, all mock drafts are consistently wrong.

Yet all those interviews and due dilligence can't tell apart a guy who will play his ass off from a lazy bum who won't chase his man on a fast break or a healthy, normal teen from another with deep rooted traumas and serial sexual misconducts; and all that tape, analytics, workouts and scrimmages lead you to overanalyze and make choices that no one else would and come up short time and again. Overconfidence is often worse than ignorance, and I'd rather assume nothing than make the wrong assumption.

Bottom line, at the end of the day everyone will be wrong when compared to the hindsight ideal draft, the question is HOW wrong. Media are in the business of selliing content (and often something else) and they have their own biases and agendas, and of course teams should be held to a higher standard. The problem is that, even with all their resources, they often fail to meet a basic YouTube draft blogger big board. That isn't to say that random big boards are great nor do they make actual scouting redundant, but if you can't top them on the face of their limitations, then maybe you should take it as a hint that something may be wrong in its execution (you as in general, not you specifically).

[Dejounte]

Yet all those interviews and due dilligence can't tell apart a guy who will play his ass off from a lazy bum who won't chase his man on a fast break or a healthy, normal teen from another with deep rooted traumas and serial sexual misconducts; and all that tape, analytics, workouts and scrimmages lead you to overanalyze and make choices that no one else would and come up short time and again. Overconfidence is often worse than ignorance, and I'd rather assume nothing than make the wrong assumption.

Bottom line, at the end of the day everyone will be wrong when compared to the hindsight ideal draft, the question is HOW wrong. Media are in the business of selliing content (and often something else) and they have their own biases and agendas, and of course teams should be held to a higher standard. The problem is that, even with all their resources, they often fail to meet a basic YouTube draft blogger big board. That isn't to say that random big boards are great nor do they make actual scouting redundant, but if you can't top them on the face of their limitations, then maybe you should take it as a hint that something may be wrong in its execution (you as in general, not you specifically).

Again, I acknowledged that extensive effort in any of those activities hasn’t prevented a team from drafting the wrong player and pointed to that being a personnel problem. One team or several having no success with drafting compared to mock draft writers repeatedly doesn’t mean the process is pointless and that all teams should throw their hands up in the air and surrender their pay to mock draft writers.

[Mr. Body]

first off, the Spurs are not bound to draft a guard in this draft. and second, why not add defensive to those superior skills? that's why, if the Spurs draft a guard at all with their own pick, I prefer Castle over Dillingham. (I wouldn't want Topic, at least not with the Spurs pick. if they pick him with the Raptors pick at 7 or later....ok, I can live with it)

I think we have a different approach to this draft, because you don't see Risacher as a legitimate option in case Spurs win the lottery. my approach is, if they win a top pick, let's use it on Risacher. (if he's there). if they don't win and draft later, let's think about Cody Williams. he kind of went from overrated to underrated. at 6 or 7 I can see him as the right pick. I think especially the later injury hurt his stock to much, after the ankle injury in late February he wasn't the same. so I give him the benefit of the doubt.

I see no reason why the Spurs wouldn't draft a guard. If that's the player who they think is good, why on earth not? This team needs talent. Reaching for a SF just because they need one isn't a good practice.

I don't dislike Risacher. I'd be happy with him with the Toronto pick. If he's all they get out of this draft, I'll gag. Or, at least, if they take him top 4. I suppose if they drop and only have their pick, maybe he's the best available.