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Yes.
How optimistic are you about us this year?? Is the Play In realistic?!
Yes.
They definitely can, just like every NBA team. Will they? They’ll probably get to the play in tournament, assuming Wemby plays regularly and up to his hype.
I'm optimistic that Wemby can make the playoffs in every season of his career.
If they fix the defense they can straight up make the playoffs.
Yes. If there aren't significant injuries to key pieces that keep people out for long stretches. Specifically Vassell, Wembanyama, Sochan.
If not, were the same non playoff team with the bottom 2 worst record.
I don't see a reason why they shouldn't make the playoffs. I think too many people really think too little of what we got.
You're aware we were 22-60 last year pretty much with all those same players returning. Now we absolutely tanked a bit and had some injuries, but you are what your record says you are within a few spots, at least. We sucked, sometimes purposefully, but we sucked. Our defense literally was the worst on NBA history.
Imagine a stretch where Wemby cannot play and our defense presumably reverts back to all-time suckage?
I think I can imagine several reasons why people might think little of what we got, and why we might not be playoff bound. In fact, I can easily envision a scenario where we are once again picking well inside the lottery, equally as well as I can see us sneaking into a play-in spot.
Spurs are going to lose a lot of games. They will get another lottery pick this year. But they will still be fun to watch. Wemby is too young and raw to duplicate what Tim Duncan and David Robinson did to turn around the Spurs and also both had more experienced teammates than Wemby. I'll be content if he plays 68+ games and averages double digit points and close to that in rebounds and is top 4 in the league in blocks.
That means you need at least 5 teams behind you... Will there be 5 teams worse than the spurs next year? Hard to say with the tanking game, like Dallas deliberately missing the play in last year, a tanking game we may participate in next year too at the end of the season. If somehow (long shot) spurs are in the fight for a top 6-8 spot, I believe they' ll be all in. Would they try their best for a 9th or 10th spot? I'm not sure.
Last edited by JPB; 09-19-2023 at 06:13 PM.
Zach in his interview, thinks if the Spurs improve their defense to top 15-20, they’re a playoff team. I think he knows than anybody here. This is Pop’s team. If anything, they will be a better defensive team. They have the personnel to be one. Wemby’s presence alone will block and alter a lot of shots.
NBA In Tiers '23-'24 (spurstalk.com)
The Spurs had a 22-60 record, but performed like that of a 18-64 team. Yes, they "tanked" and the collective youth might improve, but a lot of bad teams can say the same.
I think the Spurs can make a credible run for the play-in but it's an uphill battle. Top 6 is basically out of the question.
It takes hard work from coaches to lose enough to be bottom 3. It's a concerted effort. A bad team with a coach that actually tries should have a decent chance at the play-in.
i dont expect wemby to play over 70 games but they should have a shot.. this roster is better than it was a few yrs ago when they made it.
I'm not sure where this idea that they'll be a ty team again comes from. Even without Wembanyama, if they played out of tank mode they'd be pushing 30 wins. With Wembanyama? Could be another ten wins. There's just this ESPN-driven pessimism about the team that's unfounded. A lot of that stems from this bizarre decision to discount Victor Wembanyama as a player. For some reason y'all think he's gonna suck.
Beyond this... Take a look at the WC. There's also this idea that it's stacked.
Denver won the west with only 53 wins, historically a very weak number for a supposedly elite team.
Memphis was second. They will miss Ja Morant for 25 games and were shakier overall than they were the year before.
Sacramento was third. They look up-and-coming, but hardly worldbeaters.
Phoenix, LA Clippers, LA Lakers, Golden State, all are on the verge of collapse largely due to age. The Suns are paper tigers with no depth. None of the others scared anybody and they're all weaker and getting worse by the day.
Minnesota looks like they're plateauing.
New Orleans is trouble with a fit and active Zion, but that's a huge question mark. Their parts aren't fitting as well together as they hoped, but maybe a bounce-back year.
Dallas is a glass cannon; they can blow you away but are very fragile.
Utah played well above expectations. Can they keep it up?
Only OKC Thunder look to make a major move up, in my mind. They should be top 3 in the west along with Sacramento. The rest? Who do you actually believe in among this lot?
I mark a much lower probability of winning ~22 games for the Spurs than I do ~40.
Interesting ESPN article about the spurs exactly to the convo:
https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/...layoff-chances
Full article:
Don't expect an instant turnaround for Victor Wembanyama and the Spurs
Andrew Lopez
Kevin Pelton
Sep 19, 2023, 07:00 AM E
The San Antonio Spurs have been here before.
In 1987, after finishing 28-54, they won the draft lottery and the right to select David Robinson, a 7-foot-1 generational big man out of Navy.
A decade later, following a 20-62 season, they again won the draft lottery and the right to select Tim Duncan, a 6-foot-11 generational big man out of Wake Forest .
Two picks, two Hall of Famers, five NBA championships.
Robinson didn't make his NBA debut until 1989 because of his two-year service requirement with the Navy. The Spurs went 21-61 the season before Robinson's arrival. Led by Robinson, fellow rookie Sean Elliott -- the No. 3 pick in the 1989 draft -- and then-coach Larry Brown, the Spurs jumped to 56 wins in 1988-89, finishing second in the Western Conference and reaching the second round of the playoffs.
Duncan joined a Spurs team that had won at least 55 games in three consecutive seasons before plummeting to 20 wins in 1996-97, when Robinson missed most of the season with a back injury. With a healthy Robinson and Duncan and with Gregg Popovich in his first full season as head coach, the 1997-98 Spurs won 56 games and reached the second round of the playoffs.
Both Robinson and Duncan were All-Stars and named Rookie of the Year in their respective debut seasons -- with Robinson averaging 24.3 points, 12.0 rebounds and 3.9 blocks and Duncan putting up 21.1 points, 11.9 rebounds and 2.5 blocks.
Now Victor Wembanyama, a 7-foot-3½ generational big man out of France, comes to San Antonio on the heels of a 22-60 campaign as the No. 1 pick in the 2023 draft, bringing with him lofty expectations heightened by the perfect cir stances of the Spurs' two previous No. 1 overall picks. Robinson and Duncan each led one of the three biggest turnarounds in NBA history (2007-08 Boston Celtics, +42 wins after acquiring Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen; 1997-98 Spurs, +36 wins in Duncan's first season; 1989-90 Spurs, +35 wins in David Robinson first season). So pencil Wembanyama in for an All-Star trip to Indianapolis in February, a Wilt Chamberlain Trophy as Rookie of the Year and a Spurs trip to the second round of the playoffs, right?
It's not that simple -- and neither Wembanyama nor the Spurs is expecting to match that kind of immediate success.
"Not [skipping] any steps for me makes sense because it's easy to make that mistake," Wembanyama told reporters on draft night. "I'm glad I got people around me that can help me not make that mistake."
Why the Spurs won't contend for the playoffs this season ...
Despite adding Wembanyama, the Spurs did little to upgrade their roster beyond that this summer. As a result, San Antonio has the lowest wins forecast of any team in preliminary projections for the upcoming 2023-24 campaign, an average expectation of 25.9 wins.
Although it might seem shocking for the Spurs to add Wembanyama and improve by fewer than four wins over their 22 from last season, it's worth noting that San Antonio actually performed much worse in 2022-23 than the team's record indicated. The Spurs were outscored by 10.1 points per game, far worse than the Detroit Pistons (minus-8.2 points per game), who finished with the league's worst record at 17-65.
In fact, San Antonio's 22 wins were tied with the 2020-21 Oklahoma City Thunder for the most in NBA history by a team outscored by double digits on average. Before the Thunder, only the 1990-91 Denver Nuggets had even reached 20 wins while getting outscored so badly.
If we treat the Spurs as an 18-win team (their expected record last year) rather than a 22-win team (their actual record), they are projected to improve by about eight wins. San Antonio used its salary cap space to facilitate three-team trades, taking back expiring contracts for wings Reggie Bullock and Cedi Osman, who are useful but won't likely play ahead of in bent starters Keldon Johnson and Devin Vassell.
Meanwhile, the Spurs didn't do anything to improve their biggest weakness: point guard depth. San Antonio was outscored by 11.8 points per 100 possessions with starter Tre Jones on the bench, according to NBA Advanced Stats, and went 2-14 in the 16 games Jones didn't play. Yet the Spurs chose to waive veteran point guard Cameron Payne after acquiring him from the Phoenix Suns in another deal that saved another team money, leaving combo guard Devonte' Graham and natural shooting guard Blake Wesley as the backups.
Of course, there's a logic to this. Between Wembanyama and three players drafted in the first round in 2022 (Wesley, Jeremy Sochan and Malaki Branham), San Antonio is building around four players who are 20 or younger. Weighted by subjective projections for minutes played, the Spurs have the NBA's youngest projected rotation.
The benefit will likely be another lottery pick to go along with Wembanyama and Sochan, the No. 9 overall pick in 2022. And San Antonio has plenty more tools to upgrade the roster looking forward. Including team options, the Spurs have 10 players under contract next season with a total of around $80 million in salary, giving San Antonio the ability to extend the contract of wing Devin Vassell ahead of restricted free agency and still have max-plus cap space.
Down the road, as the Spurs start to see their own draft picks come later in the first round, they'll have more coming from other teams. Although some picks are protected in a way that they might not convey, San Antonio has collected five extra first-round picks via trade along with swap rights in 2026 (Atlanta Hawks), 2028 (Boston, so long as the Celtics don't have the top overall pick) and 2030 (Dallas Mavericks).
The 2030 swap, in particular, acquired from the Mavs to take Bullock's contract as part of a sign-and-trade for Grant Williams, symbolizes the Spurs' apparent patience. It's possible that swap could ultimately amount to nothing, but San Antonio timed it for after Luka Doncic's current contract ends and just as Wembanyama -- who will be 26 in 2030 -- should be reaching his peak.
... and why that's all part of the plan
Because he spent four years playing college basketball then two more years in the Navy, Robinson was 24 years and 90 days old when he debuted in the NBA. Duncan was 21 years and 189 days old after spending four years at Wake Forest.
Meanwhile, Wembanyama will be 19 years and 294 days old when he makes his debut for a team that will be significantly younger than the ones Robinson and Duncan joined.
Youth will play a pivotal role in why San Antonio is taking a slow and steady approach to improvement.
On draft night, Popovich was asked about managing expectations -- both Wembanyama's and the team's -- heading into the season.
"It's about not skipping steps, which I say often. It's A to B to C to D on a variety of levels. One is O's and X's of the game. The rules are a little bit different, obviously, than FIBA. He'll have to get used to that," Popovich said of Wembanyama on June 22.
"Because of all the hype, he'll have a target on his back. So more than O's and X's to begin with, we'll be most interested in setting a framework in an environment where he's comfortable, where he can be Victor. He's not LeBron [James] or Tim or Kobe [Bryant] or anybody else. He's Victor, and that's who we want him to be."
Like Wembanyama, James was touted as a generational superstar coming into the league in 2003. But James wasn't able to lift the last-place Cleveland Cavaliers into the playoffs until his third season in the league.
In fact, since 2009, only one No. 1 overall pick has made the playoffs: Markelle Fultz with the Philadelphia 76ers in 2017-18 (and Fultz battled injuries that season and played just 14 games for a team that was finally coming out of the Process rebuild). Half of the teams that made the No. 1 pick since 2000 needed at least three seasons to get back to the playoffs.
"I think when we set out on this draft journey a few years ago, we wanted to find pieces that were very versatile that could play with different types of players, different offensive systems and styles and, obviously, a core thing to us and what we do is the unselfishness, the body movement, the ball movement and trying to play an intelligent brand of basketball," Spurs general manager Brian Wright said on draft night. "We think we have a young group of guys that can do that and, obviously, adding a talent like Victor just only adds to that."
While San Antonio competed in both the NBA's California Classic Summer League in Sacramento, California, and the Las Vegas Summer League, Wembanyama did not. With an eye toward the season and getting acclimated, the Spurs kept him in San Antonio to get practice time with players such as Johnson, Sochan and Vassell, who weren't on the summer league squad.
"I feel like to be able to play through an 82-game season, I got to go through a lot of conditioning and level up on the energy level," Wembanyama said from San Antonio on June 30.
When he did get to Las Vegas, Wembanyama played in only two games -- in part because he was coming off a full season that ended just weeks before the draft but also because there were more chances to work out with the teammates he'll be spending more time with on the court in the regular season. It's all part of the slow process that the Spurs and Wembanyama are hoping will pay off in the long run.
"Some players have tried to win the championship, win a ring, for years and haven't made it," Wembanyama told reporters on draft night. "I don't want to be one of those. This is going to be -- my goal is going to be to get closer and closer every time to the ring and to learn how to make it."
I still believe they win more than 30 games at least. They litterally ignored defense last year.
I don’t roll with Vegas but last time I spoke to a bettor Vegas thinks no
We'll see how it goes. My hunch is we see a season of experimentation, learning, weird lineups, opportunities for some more marginal players to grow. Competing, playing hard, but not really trying to win in the fullest sense. Definitely the return of defense, which with Wemby will mean more wins than last year. But maybe not a lot more, given how useful another high draft pick could be in the long run. When Wemby and Pop talk about not skipping steps, this could be one of the dimensions they're referring to.
ESPN is just clinically full of .
Assuming reasonably good health, at our best, I believe we can win up to 35-40 games. That may be good enough to make the play-in tournament.
Well let’s take a look at the past.
In 2021 they made in into the play-in game by winning two games more than the Pelicans. That roster included DeRozan, Murray, White, Aldridge, Johnson, Gay, Walker, & Mills.
In 2022 they barely made the play-in by winning just one game more than the injured Lakers. To get there that team had Murray, Johnson, 2/3 of a season with White, Poeltl, Vassell, Walker, 1/3 season of Richardson, along with McDermott.
This year our rotation, as stands, is Johnson, Vassell, Wembanyama, Sochan, Jones, Collins, TBD, & TBD.
Is is possible? Sure! Is it likely? I don’t think so. Too much would have to “go their way”.
It will take 1/3 of the season for the coaches to figure out the lineups. This year will be a learning year and I’m thinking 35 wins.
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