Spurs Historical Lineup Analysis, Projecting 2023-24

[spurraider21]

there definitely arent enough (if any) minutes to wonder what that "ideal" lineup looks like but if they can get away with shampenny in there instead of keldon, to keep the keldon bench thing going

[scott]

there definitely arent enough (if any) minutes to wonder what that "ideal" lineup looks like but if they can get away with shampenny in there instead of keldon, to keep the keldon bench thing going

Great call out, I completely spaced for a moment and forgot Keldon is on the bench unit now and that Lineup 1 is NOT the current starting 5.

Here is the current starting 5's numbers:

Lineup	GP	Min	Off Rtg	Def Rtg	Net Rtg	Ast/TO	Reb %	EFG%	Pace	PIE
Vassell-Champagnie-Branham-Sochan-Wembanyama	4	23	133.3	115.2	18.1	3.0	40.0	72.4	95.44	64.5

The good news - even better than the other lineup! Definitely benefits from an insane EFG% on a small sample size in just 4 games. We'll see how this one pans out. Also, rebounding a concern for this unit as well and the Defense is not up to the same level as with Johnson in over Champ.

One note, Pace doesn't apparer correlated with NetRtg. Some high pace lineups are good, some are bad.

[spurraider21]

[scott]

^Amazing how the amateur's on this website were able to see this from the get-go, while the professional basketball coaches who actual get paid to do this insisted on these other mutated lineups.

[spurraider21]

^Amazing how the amateur's on this website were able to see this from the get-go, while the professional basketball coaches who actual get paid to do this insisted on these other mutated lineups.

not to mention all the local beat writers semen shielding for pop before the obvious change was made

and then being incredibly petty after the change was made

[CorrectCrusader]

^Amazing how the amateur's on this website were able to see this from the get-go, while the professional basketball coaches who actual get paid to do this insisted on these other mutated lineups.

Sniffers on suicide watch

[spurraider21]

not surprisingly, the worst 3 man rotation including wemby (with the same 200 min qualifier) is wemby/sochan/branham

doesnt take a basketball genius to identify this stuff

[spurraider21]

as you increase the size of the lineup to 4 or 5, there simply arent that many lineups that meet the minute threshold

if i filter 5 man lineups with more than 25 minutes, the two best lineups are wemby/vassell/tre/sochan/keldon (+27) and wemby/vassell/tre/sochan/champagnie (+17)

but when the sample sizes are that low, they are prone to all kinds of noise, like the latter lineup benefitting a ton from the pistons game given that they have a total of 39 minutes together

[dbestpro]

Historically, do you think Pop will take a hint from Bellichek?

[Seventyniner]

^Amazing how the amateur's on this website were able to see this from the get-go, while the professional basketball coaches who actual get paid to do this insisted on these other mutated lineups.

Either the coaching staff truly is that incompetent or it was just cover for a (hopefully final) tank job.

I have a feeling players, and maybe even coaches, will be willing to talk about this around August or September.

[RC_Drunkford]

Pop got bailed out by a bunch of injuries that forced him to start Tre, just like I called it. Otherwise he never would've found out,

[RC_Drunkford]

Either the coaching staff truly is that incompetent or it was just cover for a (hopefully final) tank job.

I have a feeling players, and maybe even coaches, will be willing to talk about this around August or September.

that has been the narrative for the past 5 years. Maybe Pop is just a in idiot? The old man told Bam Adebayo he wasn't ready and thought Mason Plumlee was the better player.

[spurraider21]

that has been the narrative for the past 5 years. Maybe Pop is just a in idiot? The old man told Bam Adebayo he wasn't ready and thought Mason Plumlee was the better player.

bam and thad young got into it during practice and both were basically kicked off

[DAF86]

Pop got bailed out by a bunch of injuries that forced him to start Tre, just like I called it. Otherwise he never would've found out,

I give Pop a ton of but I think he knew all along that the team would do better with Tre at PG. But he also knows that Tre (and therefore the team as a whole) has a very clear ceiling, so he wanted to experiment and see if higher ceiling players could grab the PG spot. But I'm pretty sure he never expected the Spurs to suck as bad as they did while he experimented.

[spurraider21]

[R. DeMurre]

If nothing else, these kinds of advanced stats will change the playing field for those still arguing that Chet has better "efficiency" and therefore a legit case for ROY.

[R. DeMurre]

Another positive to glean from this: if the Spurs can get another legit PG-- not even a great one, but one as good or just barely better than Tre-- they'll get full coverage of legit PG play to go with Wemby's court time next season. That would be huge. One of the reasons I liked Quickley so much for this team.

[scott]

Good stuff! I'll have an update to lineup stats soon!

[ginobilized]

This is fascinating..........Spurs have the Number 1 defense on this list. Thanks for sharing!

[spurraider21]

This is fascinating..........Spurs have the Number 1 defense on this list. Thanks for sharing!

Vassell's man to man defense aint bad, and he has pretty good physical tools for it. he does have a knack for losing focus off-ball though. gives up cuts, etc

[CGD]

I think the truth nukes the Bulls announcer had last month for the Spurs is starting to set in:

https://x.com/BalaPattySZN/status/17...696367365?s=20

[scott]

Here is an update as we sit at 10-36. Right now we are projecting towards our top lineup playing around 200-250 minutes together this season. These are ordered by minutes played. I included all lineups with over 48 minutes played and threw in a few others to highlight some things.

Lineup	Min	Off Rtg	Def Rtg	Net Rtg	Ast/TO	Reb %	EFG%	Pace	PIE
Vassell-Jones-Champ-Sochan-Wemby **NEW SL**	144	121.6	109.3	12.3	2.42	52.0	60.9	105.03	55.7
Johnson-Vassell-Branham-Sochan-Wemby **SL 2**	88	102.0	99.5	2.5	1.5	50.5	53.6	108.40	51.3
Collins-Johnson-Vassell-Sochan-Wemby **ORIG SL**	88	93.8	110.8	-17.1	1.51	51.6	47.8	104.76	41.8
Collins-Johnson-Branham-Sochan-Wemby	84	110.6	126.3	-15.7	1.96	51.9	56.2	102.9	45.7
Johnson-Vassell-Jones-Sochan-Wemby **CLOSING 5?**	60	130.7	97.9	32.8	3.20	45.7	62.4	111.18	68.2
Vassell-Champ-Branham-Sochan-Wemby	44	111.2	122.0	-10.7	2.15	41.5	59.3	98.93	50.0
Collins-Johnson-Vassell-Branham-Sochan **ANTI-DEATH**	41	86.9	124.2	-37.3	1.06	51.1	44.6	112.25	28.7
Vassell-Jones-Champ-Sochan-Barlow **DOM FOR VIC**	24	132.7	122.4	10.2	3.75	54.5	53.9	98.34	49.6
Vassell-Jones-Champ-Sochan-Collins **ZACH FOR VIC**	16	81.8	111.8	-29.9	1.0	46.4	54.3	103.52	37.5

A few observations:

• Hey, our current starting lineup is pretty good!
• the SL that had Branham in for Jones wasn't terrible (and was actually really good defensively), but you can see what a difference having Jones in there at PG makes, especially on our AST/TO ratio
• Compare that to our original SL and you can see what atrocious basketball that was leading to.
• Our closing 5 lineup is REALLY good. Weak on the boards would be the main criticism there.
• Look at that bench unit with Collins and Branham in. Yuck. Avoid at all costs.
• I included the last two because it is a direct look at Vic coming out and Zach or Dom coming in for him. It is a limited sample size, but a MASSIVE 40 pt NetRtg swing. Just goes to show how bad Zach has been this season.

[CorrectCrusader]

Here is an update as we sit at 10-36. Right now we are projecting towards our top lineup playing around 200-250 minutes together this season. These are ordered by minutes played. I included all lineups with over 48 minutes played and threw in a few others to highlight some things.

Lineup	Min	Off Rtg	Def Rtg	Net Rtg	Ast/TO	Reb %	EFG%	Pace	PIE
Vassell-Jones-Champ-Sochan-Wemby **NEW SL**	144	121.6	109.3	12.3	2.42	52.0	60.9	105.03	55.7
Johnson-Vassell-Branham-Sochan-Wemby **SL 2**	88	102.0	99.5	2.5	1.5	50.5	53.6	108.40	51.3
Collins-Johnson-Vassell-Sochan-Wemby **ORIG SL**	88	93.8	110.8	-17.1	1.51	51.6	47.8	104.76	41.8
Collins-Johnson-Branham-Sochan-Wemby	84	110.6	126.3	-15.7	1.96	51.9	56.2	102.9	45.7
Johnson-Vassell-Jones-Sochan-Wemby **CLOSING 5?**	60	130.7	97.9	32.8	3.20	45.7	62.4	111.18	68.2
Vassell-Champ-Branham-Sochan-Wemby	44	111.2	122.0	-10.7	2.15	41.5	59.3	98.93	50.0
Collins-Johnson-Vassell-Branham-Sochan **ANTI-DEATH**	41	86.9	124.2	-37.3	1.06	51.1	44.6	112.25	28.7
Vassell-Jones-Champ-Sochan-Barlow **DOM FOR VIC**	24	132.7	122.4	10.2	3.75	54.5	53.9	98.34	49.6
Vassell-Jones-Champ-Sochan-Collins **ZACH FOR VIC**	16	81.8	111.8	-29.9	1.0	46.4	54.3	103.52	37.5

A few observations:

• Hey, our current starting lineup is pretty good!
• the SL that had Branham in for Jones wasn't terrible (and was actually really good defensively), but you can see what a difference having Jones in there at PG makes, especially on our AST/TO ratio
• Compare that to our original SL and you can see what atrocious basketball that was leading to.
• Our closing 5 lineup is REALLY good. Weak on the boards would be the main criticism there.
• Look at that bench unit with Collins and Branham in. Yuck. Avoid at all costs.
• I included the last two because it is a direct look at Vic coming out and Zach or Dom coming in for him. It is a limited sample size, but a MASSIVE 40 pt NetRtg swing. Just goes to show how bad Zach has been this season.

That closing lineup rating is insane.

[JPB]

Max batum tbh.

[TimmehC]

That closing lineup is incredible. Amazing what happens when you put the most talented players on the team together.