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I would too, this is a legendarily bad draft
I do it, but not at that price. I think fair is either a 1) quality player + quality FRP, or 2) two quality FRPs. I’d throw in the fake CHA FRP to help DET save face, which will be the biggest barrier honestly.
The other thing I’d like about this deal is that it breaks the “mystique” of Cade being the first selection. The Spurs would then be justified in taking his next deal to restricted free agency which should yield a better deal, as opposed to just giving him a max extension.
I would too, this is a legendarily bad draft
So there's a chance the cha,chi and tor picks all dont convey?? Damn
Any pick that’s not completely unprotected has a chance to not convey as a FRP, falling back as one or two SRPs, whatever the trade conditions were. That being said, two of those picks haven’t even had a chance to convey yet, as they are still in the future.
The Charlotte pick has the least chance to convey. It already had one draft chance expire before we got it as a throw in in the Dejounte trade. It didn’t convey last year, and barring a dramatic turnaround, won’t in 2024. We get another shot in 2025, but even if it conveys, the highest it can be is #15, since it’s lottery protected. Like I said, a throw in to the Dejounte trade, along with the unprotected picks and swap.
The Toronto pick has the highest chance to convey, being 1-6 protected the next 3 drafts. Other than the Durant trade, this was the only FRP to change hands at the deadline last year. It was a great return on what was at the time a rental of Jakob Poeltl.
The Chicago pick has decreasing protections over 3 drafts, 2025 1-10,2026 1-8, 2027 1-8. This pick was obtained from the S&T of unrestricted FA DeMar Derozan.
The summary: of our protected FRPs, the Charlotte pick is the least likely to convey, but also the least valuable, since if it conveys, it will fall in the range of 15-30. The Toronto pick is the best and most likely to convey, and was obtained for a 1/3 season rental of Poeltl. The Chicago pick is the middle of the pack, better and more likely to convey than the Charlotte pick, but not quite as good as the Toronto pick. It was obtained by trading an unrestricted FA who could have walked for nothing.
This is an excellent summation of where we stand with those picks. Anyone who's stressed over those picks should take a little time and read this.
I haven't watched any Piston games because we've had our own losing streak to manage. I knew Cunningham was the #1 pick in '21, but then that's about the last I heard of him. Find it interesting how much some are willing to give up for him, but I'm sure he would be a big help. Doubt Detroit is in the market to trade their best prospect, but you never know.
Good summary, the only other note I'd add re: the Toronto pick is that 1-6 is a really nice sweetspot for protections (as the receiving team). Even if Toronto goes hard tank, they can only truly protect their pick by finishing with the worst or next-to-worst record. This season, that looks out of reach. Here are the odds that the pick will convey based on the final TOR record:
3rd Worst: 7%
4th Worst: 18.9%
5th Worst: 36.0%
6th Worst: 54.2%
7th Worst: 68.0%
8th Worst: 73.8%
9th Worst: 79.8%
10th Worst: 89.1%
11th Worst: 90.6%
12th Worst: 93.9%
13th Worst: 94.3%
14th Worst: 97.6%
Even if it doesn't convey this year, I'm still not *too* worried about the TOR pick until there are signs they are going to go full hard tank.
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