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  1. #901
    Believe. onechance87's Avatar
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    chicago going full tank now it seems

  2. #902
    Veteran Dejounte's Avatar
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    Current tier list, in order of who I think the Spurs will draft first

    Tier 1 - has great potential to be an elite two way player, or offense is so good that the rest doesnt matter
    -Flagg
    -Dylan Harper

    Tier 2 - has some potential to be an elite two way player, or may someday be an offensive engine
    -Rasheer Fleming
    -Kasparas

    Tier 3 - 2nd option potential on offense
    -Ace Bailey - reminds me of young Rudy Gay
    -Edgecombe - reminds me of Donovan Mitc

    Tier 4 - high risk, high potential guys
    -Egor Demin
    -Sergio de Larria
    -Ben Saraf
    -Nolan Traore
    -Miles Byrd

    Tier 5 - obvious, more exciting guys, but less of a sure thing
    -Noa Essengue
    -Will Riley
    -Fears
    -Boogie Fland
    -Hugo Gonzales

    Tier 6 - Boring sure thing guys
    -Kon Knueppel - reminds me of Jordan Hawkins
    -Kam Jones
    -Alex Karaban
    -Labaron Philon

    Tier 7 - decent players, but probably wont address the team’s issues
    -Derik Queen - reminds me of Sengun
    -Collin Murray Boyles
    -Danny Wolf
    -Thomas Sorber
    -Adou Thiero
    -Asa Newell

    Tier 8 - bust
    -McNeely

    i would be happy with any guy from tier 1-4
    Last edited by Dejounte; 3 Weeks Ago at 07:20 AM.

  3. #903
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    We need shooting badly (obviously). We've talked about trade targets like Cam Johnson, Lauri Markannen, Trey Murphy etc. I wanted to take a look to see if there were any prospects similar to this in the draft.

    When looking at pre-draft trends, my favorite type of prospect is usually the high IQ functional athlete +/- a jumper - lots of stocks, good guard rebounders, good big man passers - think Devin Carter last year, CMB this year. However, the tall wing shooter represents a departure from the aforementioned prospect. If we look at Cam, Lauri, and Trey, we see that all of them had very low STL% and BLK%, not really great passers, and weren't great rebounders. In fact, the only things that matter for these guys are 1) They're really tall and 2) They had pre-draft shooting indicators predicting an elite stroke.

    Lauri 7'0" age 19 season - 8.6 3P/100, 42% 3, 84% FT, BPM 8.6
    Cam 6'9" age 23 season - 10.3 3P/100, career 40% 3, career 84% FT, BPM 12.1
    Trey 6'9" age 21 season - 10.7 3P/100, career 40% 3, career 82% FT, BPM 7.2

    In fact, and this may be obvious, but drafted tall shooters with good shooting indicators (specifically good FT%) tend to do very well in the league irrespective of anything else. Quick filter of drafted prospects with >35% 3PT and >80% FT listed at 6'8" or above yields a lot of promising shooters and NBA successes - Cam, Brandon Miller, Paul George, Trey Murphy, Jabari Smith, Tristan da Silva. When filtering out outlier bad STL% and AST:TO, the only bust is Dylan Windler, who is on the shorter side (now listed as 6'6"), and whose career FT% is 76%.

    The logical next question to ask from this would be - is Alex Karaban next in line? He seems to be the most obvious "tall wing shooter" mentioned in this draft
    Karaban age 22 - 11.1 3P/100, career 40% 3, career 83% FT, BPM 7.2

    On surface level analysis, the answer is a resounding "yes", but there are a few factors that give me pause
    1. His age-adjusted BPM is relatively low relative to the aforementioned 3 guys, who put up better numbers relative to their age
    2. His eFG%/TS% really nosedives against top 100/top 50 compe ion - TS drops down to 56% against top 100 comp, whereas the aforementioned 3 guys were all 63%+ - this may indicate difficulty getting his shot off against bigger/more athletic defenders
    3. Really anemic steal rate - not just normal bad, but bad bad, which was one of the filters on the aforementioned list that predicted bust

    These are the 3 factors that I'll be looking at for the rest of the season - specifically, how his shooting holds up against decent compe ion first and foremost, and also that hopefully his STL rate starts ticking up.

    Otherwise, there are no other candidates who can fit the archetype described above. Payton Sandfort has a very outside shot, but he profiles as much more of a Sam Hauser type of guy.

    Just for fun, if we drop the height requirement from 6'8"+ to 6'7", we actually get Miles Byrd

    Miles Byrd, age 20 - 12.5 3P/100, career 36% 3, career 83% FT, BPM 12.4 (6.7 OBPM) - (props to Dejounte and jesterbobman for finding this guy!)
    TS% is 60% against top 100 comp and is very low mainly due to his atrocious at rim % which when combined with his low rebound rate indicates that he may lack the strength to go up against NBA athletes given that his frame is also quite wiry. Unlike all the other guys on the list, he is actually a stock machine with a decent AST:TO. He will be another one to watch throughout the season to see if his numbers hold up.

    Outside of these two guys, it looks like a barren wasteland out there when it comes to tall wing shooters for this draft class thus far.

  4. #904
    Believe. onechance87's Avatar
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    Current tier list, in order of who I think the Spurs will draft first

    Tier 1 - has great potential to be an elite two way player, or offense is so good that the rest doesnt matter
    -Flagg
    -Dylan Harper

    Tier 2 - has some potential to be an elite two way player, or may someday be an offensive engine
    -Rasheer Fleming
    -Kasparas

    Tier 3 - 2nd option potential on offense
    -Ace Bailey - reminds me of young Rudy Gay
    -Edgecombe - reminds me of Donovan Mitc

    Tier 4 - high risk, high potential guys
    -Egor Demin
    -Sergio de Larria
    -Ben Saraf
    -Nolan Traore
    -Miles Byrd

    Tier 5 - Boring sure thing guys
    -Kon Knueppel - reminds me of Jordan Hawkins
    -Kam Jones
    -Alex Karaban
    -Labaron Philon

    Tier 6 - obvious, more exciting guys, but less of a sure thing
    -Noa Essengue
    -Will Riley
    -Fears
    -Boogie Fland
    -Hugo Gonzales

    Tier 7 - decent players, but probably wont address the team’s issues
    -Derik Queen - reminds me of Sengun
    -Collin Murray Boyles
    -Danny Wolf
    -Thomas Sorber
    -Adou Thiero
    -Asa Newell

    Tier 8 - bust
    -McNeely

    i would be happy with any guy from tier 1-4
    we badly need a playmaker.Just not sold on castle.Whoever is the best playmaker and shooter thats on the board is
    who we shoud target.

  5. #905
    Veteran Dejounte's Avatar
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    we badly need a playmaker.Just not sold on castle.Whoever is the best playmaker and shooter thats on the board is
    who we shoud target.
    Playmaking wont stop our opponents from bombing us from the 3 pt land, perimeter defense will. Weak point of attack defense and perimeter defense are our main issues.

  6. #906
    Believe. onechance87's Avatar
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    Playmaking wont stop our opponents from bombing us from the 3 pt land, perimeter defense will. Weak point of attack defense and perimeter defense are our main issues.
    Drafting castle and sochan are suppose to help with that.

  7. #907
    Veteran Dejounte's Avatar
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    Drafting castle and sochan are suppose to help with that.
    I think we need more help tbh

    OKC flooded their team with these types of guys: Cason Wallace, Caruso, Dort, and so forth.

  8. #908
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    Unless we luck our way into another top5 pick, I don't want to draft a playmaker.
    Rookie/sophmore guard combo would set us back even more, not worth it unless it's a player with star ceiling.

    Just get Fox and be done with it. Use the highest pick on BPA wing and trade other picks for rotation pieces.

  9. #909
    Veteran Dejounte's Avatar
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    A couple days ago I was using barttovik and sorted the defensive metrics from best to worst and definitely was surprised i didn’t see Karaban at anywhere near the top, similar to your findings SpursBills. You’re right, i might drop this guy for good

  10. #910
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    A couple days ago I was using barttovik and sorted the defensive metrics from best to worst and definitely was surprised i didn’t see Karaban at anywhere near the top, similar to your findings SpursBills. You’re right, i might drop this guy for good
    Unless we're at the top and get into the top 3 it sort of looks like to me that we should draft a PG that can shoot and has some ability to get to the rim. The use that 2nd pick either in a trade or to draft a lower rated 3-D guy. I'd prefer trading it unless we have some Intel that we could get Aldama/ Naz (preferably both).

  11. #911
    Veteran Dejounte's Avatar
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    Unless we're at the top and get into the top 3 it sort of looks like to me that we should draft a PG that can shoot and has some ability to get to the rim. The use that 2nd pick either in a trade or to draft a lower rated 3-D guy. I'd prefer trading it unless we have some Intel that we could get Aldama/ Naz (preferably both).
    All the non top 5 projected pgs are mid so far tbh

  12. #912
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    gotta draft a wing, this draft is loaded with wings

  13. #913
    Why not?
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    Outside of these two guys, it looks like a barren wasteland out there when it comes to tall wing shooters for this draft class thus far.
    Kon Knueppel and Liam McNeeley also fit the archetype you're looking for, and I think either would be good picks in the 8-12 range where the Spurs should be picking. Knueppel is more of a big guard than a big wing. I also have some concerns about what positions he'll be able to defend at the next level, but I still like him better than a lot of the alternatives at this range.

    I'm a big fan of McNeeley, and that's who I hope the Spurs target assuming they don't trade picks. He was handling a heavy offensive load for a tough to play for UConn team as a freshman until he got injured. I think he's kind of slipping through the cracks given that he was a top 10 high school recruit who's producing at a good school. Seems like that's nothing new given that the same thing happened to Castle at UConn.

  14. #914
    Body Of Work Mr. Body's Avatar
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    We need shooting badly (obviously). We've talked about trade targets like Cam Johnson, Lauri Markannen, Trey Murphy etc. I wanted to take a look to see if there were any prospects similar to this in the draft.

    When looking at pre-draft trends, my favorite type of prospect is usually the high IQ functional athlete +/- a jumper - lots of stocks, good guard rebounders, good big man passers - think Devin Carter last year, CMB this year. However, the tall wing shooter represents a departure from the aforementioned prospect. If we look at Cam, Lauri, and Trey, we see that all of them had very low STL% and BLK%, not really great passers, and weren't great rebounders. In fact, the only things that matter for these guys are 1) They're really tall and 2) They had pre-draft shooting indicators predicting an elite stroke.

    Lauri 7'0" age 19 season - 8.6 3P/100, 42% 3, 84% FT, BPM 8.6
    Cam 6'9" age 23 season - 10.3 3P/100, career 40% 3, career 84% FT, BPM 12.1
    Trey 6'9" age 21 season - 10.7 3P/100, career 40% 3, career 82% FT, BPM 7.2

    In fact, and this may be obvious, but drafted tall shooters with good shooting indicators (specifically good FT%) tend to do very well in the league irrespective of anything else. Quick filter of drafted prospects with >35% 3PT and >80% FT listed at 6'8" or above yields a lot of promising shooters and NBA successes - Cam, Brandon Miller, Paul George, Trey Murphy, Jabari Smith, Tristan da Silva. When filtering out outlier bad STL% and AST:TO, the only bust is Dylan Windler, who is on the shorter side (now listed as 6'6"), and whose career FT% is 76%.

    The logical next question to ask from this would be - is Alex Karaban next in line? He seems to be the most obvious "tall wing shooter" mentioned in this draft
    Karaban age 22 - 11.1 3P/100, career 40% 3, career 83% FT, BPM 7.2

    On surface level analysis, the answer is a resounding "yes", but there are a few factors that give me pause
    1. His age-adjusted BPM is relatively low relative to the aforementioned 3 guys, who put up better numbers relative to their age
    2. His eFG%/TS% really nosedives against top 100/top 50 compe ion - TS drops down to 56% against top 100 comp, whereas the aforementioned 3 guys were all 63%+ - this may indicate difficulty getting his shot off against bigger/more athletic defenders
    3. Really anemic steal rate - not just normal bad, but bad bad, which was one of the filters on the aforementioned list that predicted bust

    These are the 3 factors that I'll be looking at for the rest of the season - specifically, how his shooting holds up against decent compe ion first and foremost, and also that hopefully his STL rate starts ticking up.

    Otherwise, there are no other candidates who can fit the archetype described above. Payton Sandfort has a very outside shot, but he profiles as much more of a Sam Hauser type of guy.

    Just for fun, if we drop the height requirement from 6'8"+ to 6'7", we actually get Miles Byrd

    Miles Byrd, age 20 - 12.5 3P/100, career 36% 3, career 83% FT, BPM 12.4 (6.7 OBPM) - (props to Dejounte and jesterbobman for finding this guy!)
    TS% is 60% against top 100 comp and is very low mainly due to his atrocious at rim % which when combined with his low rebound rate indicates that he may lack the strength to go up against NBA athletes given that his frame is also quite wiry. Unlike all the other guys on the list, he is actually a stock machine with a decent AST:TO. He will be another one to watch throughout the season to see if his numbers hold up.

    Outside of these two guys, it looks like a barren wasteland out there when it comes to tall wing shooters for this draft class thus far.
    Not pushing for Karaban, but someone pointed out how the UConn system depresses players' steal rates. Newton and Spencer had much higher steal rates before transferring there. Castle had a low steal rate. If true, Hurley has them playing a very risk-averse positional defense.

  15. #915
    Veteran mo7888's Avatar
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    All the non top 5 projected pgs are mid so far tbh
    Most everyone else is mid too, though

  16. #916
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    Most everyone else is mid too, though
    Mid wings are harder to find than mid guards and I'd take a couple more mid wings over what we have right now.

  17. #917
    Veteran mo7888's Avatar
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    Mid wings are harder to find than mid guards and I'd take a couple more mid wings over what we have right now.
    I get that, but id rather trade a pick for a known quan y at wing than draft one to develop unless it's a high end wing.

  18. #918
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    A couple days ago I was using barttovik and sorted the defensive metrics from best to worst and definitely was surprised i didn’t see Karaban at anywhere near the top, similar to your findings SpursBills. You’re right, i might drop this guy for good
    When I watched Karaban live in person, what struck me was he just looked like the typical upperclassman putting up numbers against younger compe ion, but not a whole lot of athleticism. It was only one game (in which UCONN lost to Memphis), but I came away pretty unimpressed. McNeeley didn't do much that game either, but I saw more potential in his off the ball movement than what I did from Karaban, fwiw

  19. #919
    Veteran Dejounte's Avatar
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    All star wings are generally easier to find past the top 10 than point guards, IMO…even if they might not have the hype during and before draft day. Paul George, Kawhi, Giannis…

    I honestly dont know any known commodity wings available right now who would move the needle. Yeah, you can get a shooter like Cam but he won’t solve or improve our perimeter defense woes at all… probably better to take a chance during the draft to find a more complete player…

  20. #920
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    I think he's got a good bit of upside, but I don't think he's a top 15-20 pick at this point. If we trade back, the Nets maybe, I could see him being a target. I like the length and 3pt%. He is a fit next to Castle too.
    He’s mocking more like 40ish where we have two picks. The article exaggerates his current draft ranking.

  21. #921
    Veteran mo7888's Avatar
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    He’s mocking more like 40ish where we have two picks. The article exaggerates his current draft ranking.
    He's 24 on tankathon

  22. #922
    Veteran mo7888's Avatar
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    He's 24 on tankathon
    Edit: You're right. I thought you were commenting on Sergio, who i had brought up. My bad..

  23. #923
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    How many rookies can we bring in next season?

  24. #924
    Veteran KobesAchilles's Avatar
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    How many rookies can we bring in next season?
    All of them

  25. #925
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    No more chance for Egor Demin??

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