Somebody just compared this guy to Jokic, currently at 26th at Tankathon. Danny Wolf.
I’m okay with the next Spurs Diaw.
Last edited by John B; 02-07-2025 at 03:54 AM.
Bailey fits what we need, first from a size perspective, followed shortly by shooting and acceptable defense (according to this video). He will get stronger too. At least on O, his improvement areas (not his game) remind me of Danny Green - shoots well but can work on his drives over time. With Wemby Fox and Castle on the team, that’s ok.
Edgecombe looks nice but with his size feels like hes butting up against Castle.
I'll take BPA. Love Edgecomb, but I'd even be fine with Kasparas. We still need a 6th man, so even if we get a guard just take him. We're starting Fox/CP3 so any other combination is possible.
I don't want to personally spend much time on 'what if we get a top 4 pick' questions. Nice to pretend, but even if ATL hovers around 8-9, the chances are slim.
That said, I think my top of the board is like:
Cooper Flagg
Dylan Harper
VJ Edgecombe
Ace Bailey
Tre Johnson
Kasparas Jakucionas
and then there's a drop. I can see Demin or someone getting next slot, but we're getting more into 'more questions' territory. Already with Tre you have him needing time to get his actions moving, questionable efficiency, and what else he brings. Kaspar has fallen off a tad, and his lack of athleticism, burst, bad handles, hurt him.
De'Aaron Fox changes things. We now have two players who will command around 18-20 shots a game in him and Victor. I don't know how a team factors a third high volume shooter (Harper, Bailey) or how those players do off-ball. Your creation is going to come primarily through Wemby and/or Fox. Castle will be a secondary facilitator in the main unit.
It's weird to talk about fit with a top 4 pick, but teams with a lot of talent (Houston, with Reed Sheppard) start talking about fit. This is why Edgecombe right now is my #2 on the Spurs board after Flagg. I think they're both players who don't need to be number one scoring options and probably are best if they don't have to be, but can be lethal operating away from other players' gravity. And then both have very high defensive potential. Of course Flagg is on another level, but even as Edgecombe is getting talked about more right now, I still think the Rutgers players are getting more oxygen.
So, yeah, with Harper, Bailey, and Johnson, a big question for me is what shots are they going to get, can they work off-ball, can they work as non-focal points. And then with either Flagg or Edgecombe you have your fourth starter who could slot in perfectly given the shot diets already getting established on the court and you just need your fifth guy.
Pairing a Fox with a Wolf...that's some high level genetic manipulation.
This past week has changes some things regarding the 2025 Draft:
- Spurs will have 3 picks: 2 firsts (own and Hawks) and 1 second (own). Right now, theses picks are #10, #11 and #41.
- Vegas has Spurs and Hawks as unlikely to make the playoffs. Spurs are at +300 and Hawks at +225 to make the playoffs. Most likely scenario right now is to get two picks in the 8th to 12th range.
- Getting Fox has sped up the rebuilding process. It is now more likely (or less unlikely) that Spurs trade picks for vets. Spurs will have $28.7M in tradable expiring contracts with Barnes, Branham and Wesley this summer to do this kind of trades.
- There are several lead guards without a good jumpshot projected around Spurs/Hawks first round picks (Fears, Traoré and Saraf). With Fox and Castle, I think it's highly unlikely Spurs go after them.
- Adding shooting is even more a priority than before with the addition of Fox, who is primary a driver.
- Spurs biggest need is forwards who can ideally shoot and defend. They also don't have a backup to Wembanyama but I don't see them spending a lottery pick on a big if he can't be paired with Wembanayama.
- Not directly draft related but Spurs won't have cap space this summer. They will have the non-taxpayer MLE ($60.6M/4 years) and the BAE ($10.5M/2 years) to sign free agents.
Don't try to find the next Jokic, you're going to be disappointed.
Kon and Essengue
A bucket getter or a super versatile forward. That’s what I want
Fleming
Saraf
Demin
Larrea
is so far what I got
Those are my top 6 as well and the drop after that is substantial. If we get #1 it's obviously Flagg, but I'm can genuinely make a case for Edgecombe, Bailey, or Harper as #2, so I'd be thrilled with any top 4 pick.
If we are outside of that I'm looking for shooting first and fit second. Guys I like at varying points from 7-15 are Sergio De Larrea (47% from 3- 6'6" combo guard), Rasheer Fleming, Kon Knueppel, and Liam McNeeley. After that I'm looking for fit or upside. Guys like Jase Richardson, Danny Wolf, Maluach, Dink Pate, Asa Newell, and Ben Saraf.
If we’re top 4:
Flagg
Edgecomb
Harper
Bailey just gives me the willies that high up in the draft. I don’t trust his shooting and his playmaking and defense are sub par.
Later:
Fears
Demin
Essengue
McNeely
I’m not looking for role players if we don’t jump up. I still want big upside.
Flagg
Bailey
________
Trade the pick if we jump up or draft a backup big if we don't.
playmaking is less of a premium with fox/wemby/castle in the fold. the traits we needs are
- guys who can be shooting threats after fox/castle penetrate or wemby is doubled
- guys who can get out and score in transition (fox/castle steals, wemby blocks leading to fastbreaks, fox pushing the pace needs some horses with him)
- guys who can defend at least reasonably well, preferably with positional size to help on the boards
obviously its hard to find players who excel at all 3. i think its tough to pass on Bailey's talent if we're lucky enough to have him available. anywhere past 2 and he's a snap autopick for me
They shouldn't even consider fit right now. That's how you end up with Reed Sheppard on your team instead of Stephon Castle. That's how Portland selects Sam Bowie over Michael Jordan. Take the BPA and worry about the fit later.
This team needs to fix its outside shooting in the worst way, but I agree... where they likely pick will be devoid of shooters.
I still think they best bet is to keep amassing talent, then let God sort it out. Address the needs in free agency or with trades. I also wouldn't be opposed to them pushing the latter of the first round picks down the road like they did with Minnesota last year. That just seems like good business to have those in your back pocket when extensions start kicking in.
I don't think it's weird to talk about fit if we have Fox and PATFO sees Castle as the future franchise cornerstone.
Don't get me wrong, if we get a top3 pick and we can draft Harper, you don't pass on him, but I'd rather trade that pick to NOLA and get Murphy if there's a possibility.
Backup big issue can easily be fixed with a veteran, but our wings are really bad compared to every playoff team and wings are harder to get than guards.
Another issue is that we already have enough players to develop, we don't want more rookies who are two years away from contributing. And most rookies picked outside top5 need time.
IMO the problem with Reed Sheppard isn't that they were going for fit, it's that he sucks.
And I mean that sincerely. I think he has an avenue to success, but even watching him in college he was slow, had no handle, couldn't stop bigger players defensively, and couldn't start and control an offense. His archetype is what the Rockets might have needed in a wonky draft, but he was wildly overrated.
we could also trade up, depending on where the pick lands. We got enough picks to do so.
We're pretty far out, but the strategies seem to be something like this:
1. Draft at our slots and pick up possible role players that may have slimmer star upside. Say, we pull Derek Queen and Liam McNeeley or Kon Kneuppel. Possible back-up big and wing shooter, both needs. Nothing fancy, but we don't really need to get fancy at this point, and role players are what you usually get at those slots.
2. Go for veterans. Trade off one or both picks and try to upgrade the roster with existing good players.
3. Dive for that great young starter. If Atlanta winds up at like #8 and the Spurs at like #12, package them or do whatever it takes to get in for that potential top 6 in this draft. Flagg won't be traded, Harper probably not, but maybe poach an Edgecombe from the 4 or 5 spot.
To me, the draft isn't very exciting if we just get role-players, but we're already transitioning into our next phase, which is play-off contention. Going forward we're not looking at multiple draft picks, we'll be hoping our swaps work out, etc. Getting a third star would be awesome, but maybe too expensive to get this year.
If Atlanta finishes #8 and San Antonio #12, the probability that at least one of them lands in the top 4 of the draft is 31%.
So we’re looking at a roughly 1 in 3 chance that we get one of Flagg, Harper, Bailey, or Edgecombe.
Just starting to look at Centers we might take in the second round if our record improves I think he might be worth a high teen pick and definitely worth a second round pick if he falls to us.
Another French guy I really like is Maxine Raynaud from Stanford you mentioned earlier and I have been falling him he is putting up really good numbers not as good as a defender but is a good shooter and rebounder.
Right now, Asa Newell is the only big I think is worth a lottery pick for Spurs.
For second round picks options, an intriguing prospect is a German player called Johann Grünloh. He is still a little green but he can shoot threes and block shots which is a great start.
Last edited by Bruno; 02-08-2025 at 02:39 AM.
Still a month early for me to really look deep into this draft, but I've seen a decent bit of Tre Johnson. Wouldn't take him top 4 if the Spurs wind up there but if they end up 6-10 and he's there he'd be my pick. I see him as the kind of player the Spurs want Vassell to ideally be. Assuming Vassell doesn't show any improvement the rest of the season you can trade him and plug Johnson into his role, opening up cap space to fill out the roster.
there are plenty of good C's available in the 2nd round. I hope we don't make it a condition that they have to sign a 2-way contract. Just lock one of them up.
Jase Richardson with a career high 29 today, he’s only 18.
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