Rethinking the Timeline Discussion

[scott]

Note: I originally wrote this right before the forum went down. Thankfully I saved it in Notepad first, because I spent more time on it than I really wanted to . Anyway, here it is.

I'm starting this thread with one particular purpose in mind - to reset the thinking that seems prevalent on this message board about timelines, specifically Wemby's timeline and when we can expect the Spurs to start contending.


This stems from many of the comments in the Trade Ideas thread about "Player X does not fit the timeline" - typically this line of thinking is attached to the philosophy that the Spurs should simply sit back, make draft picks, and build this team organically. IMO, that is a huge mistake, for one very simple reason:


The Victor Wembanyama Timeline Has Already Begun. To put an even finer point on it, I'd argue a high-performing veteran in his late 20's (Murray, Bridges, whatever other name you want to throw out there) is very much more on Wemby's timeline than some 19-year old who will need 3 seasons to develop.


Yes, Victor will continue to get better, pretty much everyone agrees on this. But we need not wait for Wemby to evolve into his peak form before declaring the compe ive window open. Wemby's impact on the game is already there.


This is not to be confused with a "Spurs should go all in for Player X" thread - that is not what is being suggested here. But whether via in-season trade or via moves this summer, the Spurs should plan on approaching next season with the playoffs in mind, not another year of "seeing what we have".


The Spurs have more draft assets than they are capable of actually using on players, and it is important to keep that in mind. The Spurs (should have) acquired these assets with the mindset of eventually moving them, rather than using them on picks who would ultimately be rostered. So remember that as ideas are discussed. We must move some of this draft capital - we can't simply horde it. With that said, no - we should blow the entire war chest on ill gotten moves. No one is suggesting such a thing. But it is time to dispense with this notion that a 27-year old is not on the Wemby timeline.


Also, a key reminder, that the Spurs roster had 4 distinct evolutions in Duncan's career, with Duncan a key contributor to the first 3 (all of whom won at least one championship).


Era 1: The Emergence (1997-2002)


Key Contributors (NBA experience differential vs Duncan in Parenthesis): David Robinson (+8), Sean Elliott (+8), Avery Johnson (+9), Mario Elie (+7), Jaren Jackson (+7), Antonio Daniels (0), Malik Rose (+1), Danny Ferry (+7), Terry Porter (+12), Steve Kerr (+9)


Era 2: Domination (2003-2010)

Key Contributors: Tony Parker (-4), Manu Ginobili (-5), Bruce Bowen (+1), Steven Jackson (-3), Malik Rose (+1), Steve Smith (+6), Kevin Willis (+12), Robert Horry (+5), Rasho Nesterovich (-1), Hedo Turkoglu (-3), Brent Barry (+2), Nazr Mohammed (-1), Fabs Oberto (-8), Michael Finley (+2), Matt Bonner (-7), George Hill (-11), Dejuan Blair (-12), Richard Jefferson (-4)


Era 3: The Beautiful Game (2010-2015)


Key Contributors: Tony Parker (-4), Manu Ginobili (-5), Matt Bonner (-7), Danny Green (-12), Gary Neal (-13), Tiago Splitter (-13), Boris Diaw (-6), Kawhi Leonard (-14), Patty Mills (-12), Marco Belinelli (-10)


Era 4: The Transition (2016)


Key Contributors: Tony Parker (-4), Manu Ginobili (-5), Kawhi Leonard (-14), Lamarcus Aldridge (-9), Kyle Anders (-17), Matt Bonner (-7), Danny Green (-12), Patty Mills (-12), Jonathan Simmons (-18)


Note, that Era 2 (starting in Duncan's 7th season) is when the majority of the MAIN contributors were close to Duncan's age/experience or younger. Right now we are in Era 1 of Wemby. We need not wait until Era 2 to be a compe ive basketball team. We can build a good team with capable vets while still allowing us to have picks to load up in advance for Era 2. Especially in a time when most draft picks are not ready for the NBA, this is the smart play.

[BacktoBasics]

The Victor Wembanyama Timeline Has Already Begun. To put an even finer point on it, I'd argue a high-performing veteran in his late 20's (Murray, Bridges, whatever other name you want to throw out there) is very much more on Wemby's timeline than some 19-year old who will need 3 seasons to develop.

I think your last sentence is especially relevant to the PG position. I’m all for drafting a future PG but even a really good one would need a couple years to develop into a real floor leader.

The timeline does appear to be busted and Wemby has looked as good as advertised. A vet pg would be a good move regardless of what you draft.

I know we want to see moves now and I’m fine with that but I know this team is gonna get churned in the offseason. I expect some decent movement in the offseason.

[Mr. Body]

Not really sure what the options are for a veteran PG. Michael Conley? He becomes a free agent and the Wolves will be above $190 million with him and Kyle Anderson coming off the books. They're a bit in cap . But he'd probably want to stay as they're close to competing.

Kyle Lowry is a FA, too, but probably the same story - wants to compete.

Chris Paul could probably be acquired from the Warriors but not sure I want a grumpy Paul.

[K...]

for better or worse tre jones is a veteran PG and while he low key is not an NBA player he could be serviceable in the near term depending on how long you need your rookie to get up to speed. I prefer jones to corpses like Westbrook and Crhis paul.

The first real free agent will be the catalyst for the next free agent and or a major trade. i think everyone knows wemby is for real but want to avoid coming in too early.

[onechance87]

for better or worse tre jones is a veteran PG and while he low key is not an NBA player he could be serviceable in the near term depending on how long you need your rookie to get up to speed. I prefer jones to corpses like Westbrook and Crhis paul.

The first real free agent will be the catalyst for the next free agent and or a major trade. i think everyone knows wemby is for real but want to avoid coming in too early.

we need a real pg who can shoot....We will be so much better with that upgrade alone

[spurraider21]

era 1 works because the spurs were a Duncan away from being legit contenders

Can’t say the same about wemby and these spurs

[scott]

I like Conley and think he would be a decent two-year stop gap (assuming homie even wants to play that long), but I don’t know if we fit HIS timeline.

I don’t think free agency is where we are going to find a starting PG, or anything more than role players (which we also need). The main “core” will need to come from the draft or trades, but the draft means it will be years before those seeds turn into flowers. Vassell, despite his recent struggles, has shown he is good enough to keep rolling with (so there is one draft piece). Sochan is showing a lot of progress now that he isn’t playing PG, and even the last few games he’s starting to make some good, smart passes to Wemby. IMO, he is shown enough to stick with for now. So there is another piece (gotten through the draft) that you can roll with.

We’re going to have to make some trades (and again, doesn’t have to be in the next month… can be this summer).

[DAF86]

I have always been on this boat, that's why I wanted to get into the Chris Paul trade. I wouldn't give up any first round capital, though, unless it is for a true good offensive PG: a Darius Garland type player is the least I would consider giving up a first for. Anything less and I would prefer to take my chances in the draft or get a player in free agency without overpaying.

[scott]

era 1 works because the spurs were a Duncan away from being legit contenders

Can’t say the same about wemby and these spurs

Of course, but that is the FO’s job - to construct a roster around Wemby. The Duncan Spurs were a fluke of cir stances, a consistent playoff team (and not far removed from the WCF) who had a rash of injuries to land a generational prospect. The Spurs had to take a different route to land Wemby, but once they secured him it is now time to build the roster quickly, but without giving up the farm.

[scott]

I have always been on this boat, that's why I wanted to get into the Chris Paul trade. I wouldn't give up any first round capital, though, unless it is for a true good offensive PG: a Darius Garland type player is the least I would consider giving up a first for. Anything less and I would prefer to take my chances in the draft or get a player in free agency without overpaying.

For sure. We’re going to have to give up some of those FRP’s eventually anyway, but of course we shouldn’t just piss them away. It’s why I like a deal like potentially bringing Dejounte back. We can debate whether that is the right player, but it’s generally the right move. 27-year old locked up on a good contract is on the right timeline is my main point.

[JeffDuncan]

Remember the old cartoon of two vultures perched on a tree in the desert, and one says to me other, “Patience, my ass. I’m going to kill something.”

Victor will get better as time goes by, sure. But he’s already good enough to build around, right now.

Just to cherry pick one stat, he has 37 blocks over his last ten games, and that’s with a lot of opponents shying away from him. Everybody who’s watched him has seen him do the most amazing things.

I don’t know what the Spurs can do, or will do, but there’s no need to wait.

[baseline bum]

I have always been on this boat, that's why I wanted to get into the Chris Paul trade. I wouldn't give up any first round capital, though, unless it is for a true good offensive PG: a Darius Garland type player is the least I would consider giving up a first for. Anything less and I would prefer to take my chances in the draft or get a player in free agency without overpaying.

Every PG prospect outside Dillingham looks really shaky though, and if it stays that way it wouldn't surprise me to see Dillingham off the board by the time the Spurs pick considering there will be at least a 48% chance they fall out of the top 4.

[baseline bum]

Biggest downside I see with a Dejounte trade though is you probably can't draft Dillingham or Topic without pissing him off while it would be fine if they're still starting Tre or bring in someone like Conley, Paul, Lowry, etc. Of course the upside is you could go after a forward where there is probably more talent in this draft if you have Dejounte with Tre backing him up as your PG rotation.

[TD 21]

Basically a longform version of what I've been saying.

Every PG prospect outside Dillingham looks really shaky though, and if it stays that way it wouldn't surprise me to see Dillingham off the board by the time the Spurs pick considering there will be at least a 48% chance they fall out of the top 4.

If the Spurs interest in Murray is more than "exploratory", it could be an inkling that they're more focused on big wings/forwards than small/point guards in the draft.

[Allan Rowe vs Wade]

Yep. Let's get 1 more good draft position then back to winning

[scott]

Biggest downside I see with a Dejounte trade though is you probably can't draft Dillingham or Topic without pissing him off while it would be fine if they're still starting Tre or bring in someone like Conley, Paul, Lowry, etc. Of course the upside is you could go after a forward where there is probably more talent in this draft if you have Dejounte with Tre backing him up as your PG rotation.

I'd be curious at how Dejounte feels about his time at the 2 with Atlanta. I don't think it would be too hard to sell him on a 3-man guard rotation between himself, Dev, and a developmental PG. By the time the rookie is ready, DJ may be better suited at sliding over the 2 anyway? Just a thought, though I haven't put too much thought into it.

[Dejounte]

You All Really Underestimate How Much A Man Puts Aside His Ego As He Grows Older And Goes Through Life Experiences, Especially A Guy Like Murray Who Now Has Two Kids.

[Chinook]

Might seem weird but "Let's just copy Tim Duncan's career" isn't a more sustainable path for a team to take around an NBA superstar than "Let's just copy Tom Brady's career" is for an NFL team to take around a QB. At best Brock Purdy is the closet thing we've seen in terms of immediate unheralded excellence bolstering a team with a championship core. Every other team that's won a Lombardi has had to do it a different way. The 99 Spurs were closer to the 2022-2023 Heat than to that version of the Spurs. To build that kind of core takes time and shouldn't be hand-waved as "what a good GM is supposed to do". The best recent analog I can think of for Wemby winning a le in "era 1" would be Wade in 2006. That would require the Spurs to do something like trading for Kawhi, Durant or Curry and making the right moves around them in terms of role-players. I don't see a realistic trade out there that can accomplish that. MAYBE if the Warriors completely collapse and they decide to cash out, the Spurs can win the bidding war to get him while having enough to put a team around them. But I assume he's entrenched, just like Butler, Durant and Leonard are.

For most teams, "era 2" is the best they can hope for to begin their le. That's where Denver and Milwaukee won their les. You need years of chemistry and growth. That's why there are gaps in between these les. Tim had to grow into the guy who could lead "era 2", and Parker and Manu had to age into "era 3" before finally senescing in "era 4". Yes, folks should realize that the Spurs aren't likely going to have running mates with Victor for more than a decade. It's okay to bring in older players, and there will always be a need to draft well and hope to pick up more high impact guys on rookie contracts. But the way that should be used is that there can be moves that aren't made with trying to win a le really in mind. Getting the right guy -- even for a year or two -- could be huge for building the foundation in the locker room for a championship core to form. Think Paul Millsap with the Nuggets or Jason Terry with the Bucks.

Who could fit that box? Klay Thompson maybe? He's probably not going to stay with the Warriors, and the team needs consistent shooting. Thompson has looked cooked at times and in general didn't look like his best self since long before his injury. Add in his contract expectations and the fact that he plays the same position as the team's best hope for an organic running mate, and he doesn't seem like the best fit. Maybe Wiggins as a trade target if the Warriors make a win-now move and have to use Andrew's contract as ballast? He'd at least fit the positional needs. But even more than Thompson, making that move would feel more like "proximity to greatness" rather than getting a legit vet pace-setter. It's too bad Draymond is crazy, but he checks a lot of boxes when it comes to his intelligence, compe iveness and spirit. But dude's got problems and can't even be trusted to direct his issues toward the opposing team. I know that's three Warriors, but they've won so many of the recent les, that there aren't a ton of proven championship-level culture-setters to pick from. We're feeling the aftershocks of the all those Warriors/Cavs Finals.

In terms of whether the Spurs should look more to the draft or free agency this summer, I look at it more as a situation of "Yes, and" rather than "either/or". The team should absolutely draft a PG, and that PG needs to be quick and able to penetrate. That's the single box the team absolutely needs and is the reason why Quickley and Murray are mostly just wasting time in my mind. The team doesn't need this PG to run the offense. They need him to bend the defense. A guy who can get into the paint is going to create opportunities for the easy reps that help build the experience people are worried about. That's why Collier really hasn't lose esteem in my book. For all the talk about needing a PG who can shoot, the Spurs could only wish the biggest issue in their offense is that too many people are choosing to go to the rim rather than hoist up threes. Yes, you want a guy who can do both, and whether the coaching believe the guy can learn to shoot is a reasonable requirement. But the Spurs would be much better in terms of shooting if they had legit vertical spacing to get guys in-rhythm attempts and create conflicts in the defense.

The vet they need is really more of a wing or forward who can create and close. Think Rudy Gay after he recovered from his injury. So what are we looking at there? Maybe Harris or Oubre? Maybe an old hand like DeRozan coming back or making a deal for Wiggins, as I said? It's not going to be easy to find that vet, no matter what criteria one uses.

[Gibbz]

I ain't reading all 'at, but we need to be competing come the '26-'27 season if we want to do Vic right and make him a lifer.

[Dejounte]

The Foundation Was Supposedly Forming Even Before The Spurs Drafted Wemby, That Was The Whole Reason DeMar Was Here And Guys Like Mills And Gay Lasted Longer As Spurs Than They Should Have Because They Were Here To Bridge The Gap And Make A Lasting Impression To The Next Generation Of Guys Like Murray, White, Lonnie, Keldon, And So Forth. Can You Seriously Say With A Straight Face That These Moves Have Become Fruitful And Are Showing Its Impact Today?

I Think It’s Ridiculous To Think You Can’t Do Both Of “Getting The Right Guy To Build The Locker Room” And “Compete To Win”.

I Would Hate To Be A Player On That Hypothetical Roster Of Has-Beens Giving Comfort To Younger Players Because Of The Losses Being Accrued Since The Focus Is To Get Nice Guys In The Locker Room. What The Actual ?

[Dejounte]

I Wonder If Anyone On The Team Right Now Is Remembering DeRozan’s Wise Words In The Locker Room As They’re Mounting Up These Losses. “Don’t Worry, Kid. Everything Is Going To Be Alright” - DeMar, March 22nd 2019. Boom! Everything Is All Better. Foundation Built, Baby.

[Mr. Body]

Get some vet help. Doesn't need to be a PG, but that could work. More, for me, we need guys who can steady the ship and help end runs and get scores in end games and ends of quartes.

I also don't think this will be easy to do. And the team will be jammed with developing players, so decisions will need to be made.

I believe Devin and Keldon have the loser stink on them from tanking and sucking. It's not really their fault. It'll take a while to scrape off, but they can do it. Requires confidence and belief.

If the Spurs have a good draft, this will be a big boost. They need another playmaker beside Tre, shooting, and one or two perimeter stoppers. And experience. But the experience probably has to come from within, kind of like with OKC. They haven't really received much help from veterans, they just kept adding really good players while scoring on a MVP-type talent. And now here they are.

[scott]

Might seem weird but "Let's just copy Tim Duncan's career" isn't a more sustainable path for a team to take around an NBA superstar than "Let's just copy Tom Brady's career" is for an NFL team to take around a QB. At best Brock Purdy is the closet thing we've seen in terms of immediate unheralded excellence bolstering a team with a championship core. Every other team that's won a Lombardi has had to do it a different way. The 99 Spurs were closer to the 2022-2023 Heat than to that version of the Spurs. To build that kind of core takes time and shouldn't be hand-waved as "what a good GM is supposed to do". The best recent analog I can think of for Wemby winning a le in "era 1" would be Wade in 2006. That would require the Spurs to do something like trading for Kawhi, Durant or Curry and making the right moves around them in terms of role-players. I don't see a realistic trade out there that can accomplish that. MAYBE if the Warriors completely collapse and they decide to cash out, the Spurs can win the bidding war to get him while having enough to put a team around them. But I assume he's entrenched, just like Butler, Durant and Leonard are.

You never cease to amaze me at your ability to draft a lengthy argument against a point no one is trying to make. The comparison to Duncan's career is not say we should copy it, but rather an illustration of what should otherwise be obvious: the supporting cast around superstars who stick with one club goes through numerous evolutions. We need to give up this notion that we should only be building this roster with having a career-long running mate for Wemby in mind. Kobe and Wade are other great examples of this - superstars who won les in multiple eras of their careers because the rosters around them evolved and adapted.

[Dejounte]

Get some vet help. Doesn't need to be a PG, but that could work. More, for me, we need guys who can steady the ship and help end runs and get scores in end games and ends of quartes.

I also don't think this will be easy to do. And the team will be jammed with developing players, so decisions will need to be made.

I believe Devin and Keldon have the loser stink on them from tanking and sucking. It's not really their fault. It'll take a while to scrape off, but they can do it. Requires confidence and belief.

If the Spurs have a good draft, this will be a big boost. They need another playmaker beside Tre, shooting, and one or two perimeter stoppers. And experience. But the experience probably has to come from within, kind of like with OKC. They haven't really received much help from veterans, they just kept adding really good players while scoring on a MVP-type talent. And now here they are.

The Thing With The Thunder And Teams Like The Thunder Is That What They Look Like Now And Their Upward Trajectory These Past Couple Seasons Isn’t Guaranteed To Last. One Can Look Towards The Grizzlies Of Yesteryear And Recall That They Were A Team Whose Recipe Was A Good One To Follow. The Suns, The Celtics, And Some More Were Also Teams Who People Thought Should Be Modeled After. Things Change Fast In The NBA. Today’s Promising Team Might Be Tomorrow’s Wreck Because Maybe One Or Two Players From The Core Might Ask For Money The Team Can’t Afford, And Suddenly Everything’s Changed. This Is Why Having Some Sort Of Weird Decade-Long Plan Is Pointless. The Name Of The Game Is Adaptation. Maintain Enough Flexibility To Pivot As The Situation Demands It. It’s What Brian Wright Has Also Said In One Of The Interviews:

[Dejounte]

Starts At 9:20…

”…Optionality Is The Way We’ve Discussed It. You Want To Have The Ability To At A Moment’s Notice To Pivot…” He Says A Lot More After That But Too Much Energy For Me To Type Up With This Writing Style…