Pretty clear it's going to be Trump/Biden...

[Thread]

https://www.cnn.com/2023/11/05/polit...nds/index.html

02:48 - Source: CNN
CNN
—
Former President Donald Trump holds an edge over President Joe Biden in a series of hypothetical matchups among registered voters in four key swing states, new polling from The New York Times and Siena College shows.

In Nevada, a state Biden narrowly carried in the 2020 presidential election, Trump boasts 52% support to Biden’s 41%. Trump also tops Biden in Georgia, a state that was central to his ploy to overturn the last presidential election, with 49% to Biden’s 43%.

Trump leads Biden in Arizona, too, with 49% to the president’s 44%. In Michigan, Trump holds a 5-point lead as well: 48% to Biden’s 43%.

Each poll has a margin of sampling error between 4.4 and 4.8 points, and the head-to-head matchup remains theoretical — primary voting does not begin until next year. Trump overwhelmingly remains the Republican front-runner, while Biden, who drew a primary challenge from Minnesota Rep. Dean Phillips last month, is heavily favored for the Democratic nomination.

CNN prepping the ground to goose the Democrat voters to get their mail-in ballots congregated and at the ready. It's that (fool me once shame on you, fool me twice shame on me) thingy. They ain't gonna get the latter this time around. They're goin' after Trump like the last pork chop on the plate with everything they got including "guns, and knives and things." as Barney Fife testified to in that "Andy Griffith Show" show episode..."The Big House."

But that old man, CC? He already made President. You know it. That old in the White House knows it, and Trump's assassins know it. What's more? That old man knows that they all know that he knows they know it. That's the best part.

I love that old man with every beat of me heart.

[ElNono]

Andy, remember the frustration you had with Trump post-2020, to the point of aligning with fat fingers?

You've grown out of it and rationalized it out because you're the prototypical GOP voter. That's not the case for the rest of the electorate.

Midterms "red tsunami" that never was should've been a warning sign, but somehow it wasn't taken seriously.

And unfortunately, there's nothing Trump can do to right that ship. The best that can happen to the GOP is that Trump doesn't get the nomination. Be it because of legal woes or whatever.

[CosmicCowboy]

No. Again, you're rationalizing this wrong because you really, really want an (R) president.

Old Joe is basically non-threatening in any way, regardless if he's more or less liked. If the race would be Kamala or AOC vs Trump, then you would have a point.

IMO, there would need to be an absolutely major economic debacle from here to the election to make this compe ive.

Maybe so, but the primary issues are going to be the economy and illegal immigration and Old Joe loses both of those.

[Thread]

Old data, but the point still stands. As per RCP, Trump is currently ahead by Likely margins in Michigan and Georgia, strong Lean margins in Arizona and Nevada (but they've overestimated the GOP lately, especially Nevada), and a low lean to tilt margin in PA, while WI keeps going back and forth.

North Carolina which the Dems are targeting for 2024 doesn't look like it will be contested. Trump winning in aggregate polls there by nearly double digits. The House gerrymander there could help Trump run up the score a bit there, too.

Also, today's latest New Hampshire primary poll has Trump up +16 over Haley, 50% to 34%. Primary is six days from now; it's over.


People don't dislike Trump MORE than they disliked him in 2020, though. The difference is that Biden himself is equally or even more disliked than Trump now when he was net liked in 2020.

A lot of left leaning independents that broke for Biden in 2020 will likely be voting third party, and we expect at least three strong third party candidates to be on the ballots in 2024.

You're mistaken. An anticipatory run this time around may end in his murder to put a stop to it once & for all.

God bless him & keep him. Amen.

[Millennial_Messiah]

Maybe so, but the primary issues are going to be the economy and illegal immigration and Old Joe loses both of those.

Yes. Particularly inflation and gas prices which don't hurt coastal elites that vote generally democrat anyway, but they absolutely kill the swing voters in the Midwest.

ElNono is overlooking that the general public sees "Old Joe" as culpable as to why gas is much higher than it was from 2014 to 2020 since 2021, and grocery and basic goods and services prices have gone up substantially and in many cases doubled or worse, while wages and salaries have essentially stagnated and rent and housing prices continue to have soared and you can't blame Covid anymore.

People forget, not only was gas much cheaper under Trump, but also in Obama's last two years in office... gas prices (and inflation) really weren't a talking point or campaign issue in 2016. Free trade vs. fair trade, rebuilding the upper Midwest industrial areas, ISIS, and to an extent Obamacare were. Trade was an especially big issue that year.

You're mistaken. An anticipatory run this time around may end in his murder to put a stop to it once & for all.

God bless him & keep him. Amen.

If the left assassinates him, we will absolutely have Civil War II and conservatives will win. We have far more guns, person for person, and are far better at using them, person for person. The military will turn against the deep state. It will be bloody, but perhaps much needed.

Andy, look at it this way.

Trump is the Cowboys, locked and loaded for a le run.

Sleepy Joe is the Packers with Jordan Love.

No... better analogy is::

Trump is the 2018 Patriots, fresh off winning on a miraculous, historically amazing comeback in 2016 but just narrowly and barely losing the next time around despite having the highest numbers performance in defeat.

Sleepy Joe is the 2018 Chiefs with MVP Mahomes, at home, the favorites to win, at Arrowhead, the in bent darlings.

[monosylab1k]

Yes. Particularly inflation and gas prices which don't hurt coastal elites that vote generally democrat anyway, but they absolutely kill the swing voters in the Midwest.

ElNono is overlooking that the general public sees "Old Joe" as culpable as to why gas is much higher than it was from 2014 to 2020 since 2021, and grocery and basic goods and services prices have gone up substantially and in many cases doubled or worse, while wages and salaries have essentially stagnated and rent and housing prices continue to have soared and you can't blame Covid anymore.

People forget, not only was gas much cheaper under Trump, but also in Obama's last two years in office... gas prices (and inflation) really weren't a talking point or campaign issue in 2016. Free trade vs. fair trade, rebuilding the upper Midwest industrial areas, ISIS, and to an extent Obamacare were. Trade was an especially big issue that year.

Andy, look at it this way.

Trump is the Cowboys, locked and loaded for a le run.

Sleepy Joe is the Packers with Jordan Love.

[Blake]

https://www.cnn.com/2023/11/05/polit...nds/index.html

02:48 - Source: CNN
CNN
—
Former President Donald Trump holds an edge over President Joe Biden in a series of hypothetical matchups among registered voters in four key swing states, new polling from The New York Times and Siena College shows.

In Nevada, a state Biden narrowly carried in the 2020 presidential election, Trump boasts 52% support to Biden’s 41%. Trump also tops Biden in Georgia, a state that was central to his ploy to overturn the last presidential election, with 49% to Biden’s 43%.

Trump leads Biden in Arizona, too, with 49% to the president’s 44%. In Michigan, Trump holds a 5-point lead as well: 48% to Biden’s 43%.

Each poll has a margin of sampling error between 4.4 and 4.8 points, and the head-to-head matchup remains theoretical — primary voting does not begin until next year. Trump overwhelmingly remains the Republican front-runner, while Biden, who drew a primary challenge from Minnesota Rep. Dean Phillips last month, is heavily favored for the Democratic nomination.

So who are you voting for?

[ElNono]

Maybe so, but the primary issues are going to be the economy and illegal immigration and Old Joe loses both of those.

Not really, no. It's going to be the economy and the end of democracy as we know it, and Old Joe wins on those by a long, long mile. Like not even close.

[baseline bum]

Old data, but the point still stands. As per RCP, Trump is currently ahead by Likely margins in Michigan and Georgia, strong Lean margins in Arizona and Nevada (but they've overestimated the GOP lately, especially Nevada), and a low lean to tilt margin in PA, while WI keeps going back and forth.

North Carolina which the Dems are targeting for 2024 doesn't look like it will be contested. Trump winning in aggregate polls there by nearly double digits. The House gerrymander there could help Trump run up the score a bit there, too.

Also, today's latest New Hampshire primary poll has Trump up +16 over Haley, 50% to 34%. Primary is six days from now; it's over.


People don't dislike Trump MORE than they disliked him in 2020, though. The difference is that Biden himself is equally or even more disliked than Trump now when he was net liked in 2020.

A lot of left leaning independents that broke for Biden in 2020 will likely be voting third party, and we expect at least three strong third party candidates to be on the ballots in 2024.

Biden being Netenyahu's lap dog is going to cost him Michigan with all the Muslims there. Right now I think I'd peg it 70/30 in the nazi's favor over the mummy in the general.

[ElNono]

Don't get me wrong, it's actually interesting what the view is from the GOP lenses. The point is that lens really doesn't matter. Much like the blue lens doesn't really matter.

[Millennial_Messiah]

Not really, no. It's going to be the economy and the end of democracy as we know it, and Old Joe wins on those by a long, long mile. Like not even close.

Except, nobody in 2024 gives a rat's ass about J6, 2020 shenanigans, or covid. Lol @ muh demoocracy / muh insurrooctionists. Nobody in 2024 gives a about that.

As for the economy, Trump is polling over 30% ahead of Biden on that issue.

Biden has muhbortion, Trump scandals, and that's about it. He can't even claim Trump is anti social security/medicare or anti union.

Biden being Netenyahu's lap dog is going to cost him Michigan with all the Muslims there. Right now I think I'd peg it 70/30 in the nazi's favor over the mummy in the general.

Trump will win Michigan. For the first time since 1992, Michigan will vote to the right of PA and WI, and I've said it for a long time.

While that part of Wayne County votes third party and to the right of the past 20 years, that's not why Trump will win Michigan. The outer west and southern downriver parts of Wayne County is all white working class as well as Macomb County and that's zooming right. The Dems are pretty much maxed out in Washtenaw and Oakland is D+10 or so but has trends in both directions. Also, massive room for the GOP and Trump to grow upstate in the rural parts of the state, where the Dems are already pretty much maxed out. The Dems might gain a couple points out west in Kent and Ottawa counties but that isn't going to be nearly enough.

Add to that the effect of the open senate seat and I believe you're looking at a net pickup there for the GOP as well.

However I see the opposite happening in Pennsylvania. I don't see the math for Trump or certainly McCormick to win in PA. Not only is it Biden's home state but more importantly the Philadelphia suburbs especially Bucks County is trending blue off a cliff while the rural areas are mostly maxed out for Trump. Trump could perform slightly better in the Pittsburgh exurbs, parts of NE PA, and Erie County, and it still won't be enough to offset what's going on around the collar of Philadelphia.

So who are you voting for?

I'm gonna guess CC probably votes for RFK Jr. if he's on the ballot. Perhaps Mapstead will be on the ballot but that's looking less likely that the (L) party gets on the ballot this year.

Don't get me wrong, it's actually interesting what the view is from the GOP lenses. The point is that lens really doesn't matter. Much like the blue lens doesn't really matter.

The blue lens, i.e. from people like LTE on Youtube, has been calling for a very close race for months now.

Democrat Gen Z podcaster LTE has Trump winning narrowly in his latest forecast by virtue of narrow wins in MI and WI.

I'm less confident about WI. The GOP turnout machine there is awful but more importantly the conservative leaning people there are generally less enthusiastically Republican or pro-Trump than their Michigan counterparts. They're typically apathetic on politics and in general the Democrats have an enthusiasm advantage in Wisconsin while there is roughly equal enthusiasm on both sides in Michigan, or slightly greater in favor of Trump and conservative populism. The GOP certainly has moderately better demographics in WI than in MI but WI has a ton more progressive hipster whites, especially in Dane County and they're growing in Ozaukee as well.

[ElNono]

Of course I can be completely wrong about this, and I'll own it, like I've always have.

[ElNono]

Except, nobody in 2024 gives a rat's ass about J6, 2020 shenanigans, or covid. Lol @ muh demoocracy / muh insurrooctionists. Nobody in 2024 gives a about that.

As for the economy, Trump is polling over 30% ahead of Biden on that issue.

Biden has muhbortion, Trump scandals, and that's about it. He can't even claim Trump is anti social security/medicare or anti union.

This is what I mean when I say you rationalized all that stuff because you really, really want an (R) president.

It was the same mistake that made you think you had a "red tsunami" in the midterms. But do keep overlooking all that and rely on polls that are basically sampling old people who are the only ones that will pick up a phone these days.

[Blake]

Don't get me wrong, it's actually interesting what the view is from the GOP lenses. The point is that lens really doesn't matter. Much like the blue lens doesn't really matter.

There's no way any of them really want Trump but they've got no choice.

[ElNono]

Let me call the polls right now, so we can get that out of the way. Barring a major economic catastrophe, most polls will "tighten" close to the election.

No pollster wants to be on the hook for being completely wrong again, so we should all be used to the hedging at this point.

[ElNono]

There's no way any of them really want Trump but they've got no choice.

They do want Trump. Or rather, they want an (R) president, whoever it is. Some of them do anyways.

[Blake]

They do want Trump. Or rather, they want an (R) president, whoever it is. Some of them do anyways.

They don't want really want him. They need him.

[Thread]

Andy, look at it this way.

Trump is the Cowboys, locked and loaded for a le run.

Sleepy Joe is the Packers with Jordan Love.

...& you're a for posting that information on this site, mono.

[monosylab1k]

This message is hidden because Thread is on your ignore list.

[Thread]

They don't want really want him. They need him.

Horse , Blake, and you know it: they want him to beat "you" so bad they can taste it.

To make America great again, yes, absolutely. So they can leave this world knowing they won not once, mind you, Blake, but twice and forever.

[Thread]

This message is hidden because Thread is on your ignore list.

I ain't goin' nowhere and I ain't ever a quittin' on spankin' that ass over this issue. You're a for a it and will stay that way.

Let us proceed...

[Thread]

They do want Trump. Or rather, they want an (R) president, whoever it is. Some of them do anyways.

No, absolutely not, "They" learned thru Trump that there is a RINO around every ing corner (AND NOW THEY COULD ACTUALLY SEE THEM IN THE BROAD DAYLIGHT.)

They want TrumpPERIOD

[CosmicCowboy]

Not really, no. It's going to be the economy and the end of democracy as we know it, and Old Joe wins on those by a long, long mile. Like not even close.

"end of democracy"



damn! You really did drink the koolaid.

[monosylab1k]

This message is hidden because Thread is on your ignore list.

[Tyronn Lue]

Andy, remember the frustration you had with Trump post-2020, to the point of aligning with fat fingers?

You've grown out of it and rationalized it out because you're the prototypical GOP voter. That's not the case for the rest of the electorate.

Midterms "red tsunami" that never was should've been a warning sign, but somehow it wasn't taken seriously.

And unfortunately, there's nothing Trump can do to right that ship. The best that can happen to the GOP is that Trump doesn't get the nomination. Be it because of legal woes or whatever.

Most of their voters are re ed or illiterate, they believe in UFOs. They will ride that into the ground then cry more when he loses again. This time they need to invade a library or fitness center.