With lots of vibrant discussion around the ATL picks, their perspective value and what their realistic ceiling could be, it got me curious about just how high a draft pick acquired via trade has historically been able to reach.
I went back to look at the last 10 drafts, and here are the results. The first number is the highest pick acquired via trade (and only looking at trades that happened well before the draft, not draft day trades) for that reason. The second number is the number of picks acquired via trade that landed in the lottery, and the third number is the number of FRPs acquired via trade overall. The last number is just the ratio between the second and third number, the % of acquired picks that ended up in the lotto.
2023: 11; 1; 10; 10%
2022: 8; 2, 9; 22%
2021: 7; 2; 7; 29%
2020: 14; 1; 10; 10%
2019: 10; 2; 6; 33%
2018: 8; 3; 9; 33%
2017: 1, 3; 10; 30% (More on this below)
2016: 3; 4; 10; 40% (Also more on this below)
2015: 15, 0, 5; 0%
2014: 9; 3; 10; 30%
The 2016 and 2017 results were from the 2013 trade that sent KG, Paul Pierce, and a 2017 FRP(#27) amongst some other scraps to BKY for 3 FRPs (#17 in 2014, #3 in 2016, #8 in 2018) and a Swap (#1 in 2017). This is the only draft pick trades that have hit the ultimate jackpot of a Top 5 pick.
One thing we can draw from this is just how rare it is for this Toronto pick to potentially thread the needle so perfectly, and the FO certainly deserves a lot of credit for that move. The data is also a makes the case that a Top-6 protection has been just as good as an unprotected pick from a practical perspective, since outside of the BKY-BOS trade, no traded FRP has made it that high into the lottery (with one potential caveat, below).
However, I think this should put some perspective on the ATL picks. The data above is a good illustration of what is common sense: teams will not hard tank when they don't have their picks. Boston capitalized on BKY going all in on some aging stars. KG was 37 at the time of the trade, and was traded by BKY during the following season (for or old friend, Thad Young). Paul Peirce was 36 and had a good season for BKY but bolted to WAS after one season. BKY with the ultimate fail of a trade here, and also a great example of Danny Ainge will ruin you if you trade with him
.
Anything can happen (like injuries), but it's probably a fair bet to assume that the ATL picks have a realistic cap around #8-10, and that they'll certainly be trying to improve their team along the way so long as they don't have their picks. IMO, the Hawks likely will not entertain packages for Trae Young that are primarily based on far out picks. The Hawks would likely entertain trades for Trae (or Dejounte) to immediately improve their team and only entertain a rebuild-move if it is with the Spurs for their own picks back.
The caveat I mentioned above: in the 2017 draft where Boston had the #1 pick from BKY, they then traded that pick to Philly, there was another swap that went into play. The Kings (#3) had previously traded a swap to Philly (#5), so that was exercised. So we actually have 3 instances where a pick or swap ended up "in the money" of a top 5 pick.