I believe Matt Dolan will win the primary and the general unfortunately. He is extremely well funded. It will be the shy McCormick-PA-2022 vote on steroids. Dolan doesn't typically poll well, but he overperformed polls in the 2022 primary against Vance and co. and he's already polling close to Moreno just before the primary election. There are more establishment conservatives in Ohio than in PA. See the DeWine margin of victory in 2022.
Dolan will be Rob Portman 2.0, not the most socially conservative candidate, not the biggest ally of Trump but a generic Republican. The gay scandal will be enough to turn out evangelical conservative Ohioans against Moreno in the GOP primary under concerns of elooctability vs. Sherrod Brown.
Trump and Vance endorsed Moreno, but DeWine and a lot of the establishment endorsed Dolan, and Dolan has a ton of money. LaRose was probably the best "toe the line" candidate to win both the MAGA and establishment base, but unfortunately he never had much money.
I expect Dolan to win the primary on the back of establishment conservatives in the west and south parts of the state, plus the Cincinnati, north Columbus, and Cleveland suburbs. Moreno will do well in the remote areas near PA and WV, and in the Youngstown area, and maybe the north central area between Toledo and Lorain County, but it won't be enough. Dolan will win the general on the back of Trump and being pegged as generally a moderate.
Man, I was wrong...and it wasn't close.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...i-primary.html
I think Sherrod Brown almost certainly now wins re-election, right? Bernie Moreno is literally a gay got.
It was an open primary, so my guess is about 200k+ Dems crossed over to vote Moreno. The DNC is competent, and they know what they are doing.
He is backed by Trump.
You got what you wanted.
A step forward for Trump to completely get his way.
You want these people, don’t go bipolar on the board again.
I expect Biden to flip Ohio back blue in the presidential this November by about 3% and then Brown wins by about 5%.
Indiana could be Tilt R or Tilt D with Biden/Trump, who knows, but Gen Z in Indiana is becoming of voting age and is EXTREMELY blue, and not just in Indianapolis.
I expect Biden to cruise to a solid re-election victory, with roughly the Obama 2008 election map, plus maybe Arizona instead of North Carolina. Kansas and Nebraska-At Large might be in play. The Dems will have a 52-48 Senate seat majority by virtue of flipping both Nebraska's senate seats and losing WV but holding MT and Ohio and all the other blue states.
Now you're siding this cross-eyed SOB peeg? What gives?
Arizona voted heavily to repudiate Trump. The McCain Democrat voter is very real. Arizona is lost. Kari Lake is lost. Arizona is blue.
Also, Kansas' ancestral Rs voted HEAVILY (roughly a whopping 25%) to reject Trump even though he's the only candidate left in the GOP Primary. Kansas has a very liberal governor who is very popular, and that state is absolutely in play for the Democrats this fall.
Kansas and Arizona sent clear messages tonight: "Orange Man Bad".
All I wanted after he made President was for you all not to cut his damn head off, peeg.
This is a recurring theme around these here places... maybe take a hint?Man, I was wrong...
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