Call Your Ideal Off-Season

[Chinook]

But we wouldn't be getting year 4 Middleton, we'd be getting a vet that understands the game much better. Also, this Middleton is more of a 3 now while Vassell is a 2. It's not an 'either-or' situation with those guys.

Yep, Vassell being on track to become Middleton would be more reason to bring in Khris to mentor him. Then in a couple of years, Middleton steps back or moves on, Vassell takes his role, and a young SF like Holland moves into the starting lineup.

Instead of trading draft picks to bring in a young vet SF at a premium, they're bringing in an actualized SF while using fewer picks to draft his successor. It's significantly more sustainable while also being more likely to lead to immediate success.

[LeBowen]

But we wouldn't be getting year 4 Middleton, we'd be getting a vet that understands the game much better. Also, this Middleton is more of a 3 now while Vassell is a 2. It's not an 'either-or' situation with those guys.

I know, but Middleton wouldn't move to the Spurs for anything less than max money and he wouldn't solve all of our playmaking issues. And he's not a great defender anymore. And is injury prone.

If we're talking about veterans to throw the bag at, I wouldn't mind Harden on a two year max deal.
Nephw looks ready for retirement, if PG leaves Harden won't stay there by himself.
It would be between Orlando and Spurs for him if he's still looking to get paid.

Also, I read that Pistons are getting a new GM. Who knows what's his plan. Maybe he doesn't want to give Cade the max while they're still two years away, because that team really has nothing to work with even after all these years.
Maybe Cade isn't up for some more years of losing. I'd go for it if Cade became available.

[mo7888]

Yep, that's why I said "a year or two". Basically, the "bag" would be paying like $12 Million more for Middleton than they're already slated to be giving Collins. I don't consider that a bad risk. Now if he's starts breaking down, and they get him to opt in and sign a big extension or give him a new big contract, that could be its own thing. But that trade wouldn't require Middleton or Portis do anything but play out his contract

Yes, the amount of money left on their contracts are almost irrelevant to me. It's the assets we'd be giving up that is more relevant. I'd be more in favor of giving up significant assets if they were willing to opt-in on year two.

[mo7888]

I know, but Middleton wouldn't move to the Spurs for anything less than max money and he wouldn't solve all of our playmaking issues. And he's not a great defender anymore. And is injury prone.

If we're talking about veterans to throw the bag at, I wouldn't mind Harden on a two year max deal.
Nephw looks ready for retirement, if PG leaves Harden won't stay there by himself.
It would be between Orlando and Spurs for him if he's still looking to get paid.

Also, I read that Pistons are getting a new GM. Who knows what's his plan. Maybe he doesn't want to give Cade the max while they're still two years away, because that team really has nothing to work with even after all these years.
Maybe Cade isn't up for some more years of losing. I'd go for it if Cade became available.

We aren't talking about paying him max money in this scenario. He's under contract for $31.6 next season with a PO for the following.

Also, if were sending out Collins etc, as in Chinook's trade suggestion, there are still ways to throw a bag at Harden if we wanted to go that route or trade for another max guy on a contract.

[scott]

We have no idea how they will fare in the NBA. Maybe not busts, but not starting material either. We also can't repeat this draft is weak and rave at all these kids.



You have around 40% chances to end up with a back up in the lottery, around 30% a starter, something like 16-17% with an all star and 10% with an end of bench guy...

Sure, the higher in the lottery the better the chances of success but again, this draft is considered weak, so those numbers probalby have to be lowered, or more exactly how high next june prospects would be drafted in your average draft (and then their expected success). For example Sarr or Risacher expected to be drafted top 3 this year certainly have a much lower probability to end up all stars than top 3 guys in most other years.

(I'll try to find the the table, pick by pick, I posted last year).

This is a great chart. Mind sharing where you found it (or is it one you built?)?

[LeBowen]

We aren't talking about paying him max money in this scenario. He's under contract for $31.6 next season with a PO for the following.

Usually when trades happen, players opt out of their options to get longer deals.
I don't see a reason why would 33 year old Middleton want to join the Spurs only to get the same contract security he would with the Bucks and to be out of contract as a 34 year old, injury prone veteran.
Tbh, idk why are we even discussing him. As long as Giannis is with the Bucks, Middleton will also be there.

Also, if were sending out Collins etc, as in Chinook's trade suggestion, there are still ways to throw a bag at Harden if we wanted to go that route or trade for another max guy on a contract.

Yeah, it's a given that Collins+Keldon are a perfect package for salary matching.
If we're going Harden route, my next move would be to call the Nets.
Keldon+Collins for Bridges+DFS. With 2 FRPs. Chicago and Toronto.
Or even Bridges+Cam Johnson, but that would likely require one more pick. Or anyone on the roster except Jeremy if they're into any of our scrubs.
I'd maybe even consider Devin for Bridges straight up.

Harden/Tre
Devin/Branham
Bridges/rookie
DFS/Sochan
Wemby/veteran (Drummond or Plumlee)

Guaranteed play-in team, would still keep all the valuable picks and cap flexibility because there would be no contracts running past 2026.

With that being said, no chance Harden comes here, but getting him would be ideal.

[poopbox]

He's signed for another year or two. That's the same length or less than Collins. What bag are you assuming the Spurs are holding?

Holding the bag as in if we got Middleton he going to spend more times on the sideline hurt than he going to spend on the court.

You don't want to be the team paying a player when his body is broken down and he can't consistently stay on the court.

Kawhi is a perfect example. He had his best years as a Spur and we got a le out of it. He actually played through pain in Toronto and limped them to a le. Then he went to the clippers and they have only done two noetworthy things since he got there. Blow a 3 - 1 lead to Denver and make the WCF while he was hurt. Between the Spurs, Raptors, and Clippers, the Clippers are the one who got left holding the bag playing premium money for a player who can never be healthy for them in the most important games. Even if it was only 2 years with Middleton we would be better served giving those minutes to someone else. Almost anyone else really.

[mo7888]

Usually when trades happen, players opt out of their options to get longer deals.
I don't see a reason why would 33 year old Middleton want to join the Spurs only to get the same contract security he would with the Bucks and to be out of contract as a 34 year old, injury prone veteran.
Tbh, idk why are we even discussing him. As long as Giannis is with the Bucks, Middleton will also be there.



Yeah, it's a given that Collins+Keldon are a perfect package for salary matching.
If we're going Harden route, my next move would be to call the Nets.
Keldon+Collins for Bridges+DFS. With 2 FRPs. Chicago and Toronto.
Or even Bridges+Cam Johnson, but that would likely require one more pick. Or anyone on the roster except Jeremy if they're into any of our scrubs.
I'd maybe even consider Devin for Bridges straight up.

Harden/Tre
Devin/Branham
Bridges/rookie
DFS/Sochan
Wemby/veteran (Drummond or Plumlee)

Guaranteed play-in team, would still keep all the valuable picks and cap flexibility because there would be no contracts running past 2026.

With that being said, no chance Harden comes here, but getting him would be ideal.

The word is that several 2nd level stars are interested in Wemby, so KM should be right there especially since he's a little lower than that. Also, he can only opt out after he's played 1 season, which is why I'd preger he opt-in as part of the deal. Even if he doesn't though, is anyone really paying him more in year 2 than he can get by opting in? I doubt it, which open up the opportunity to extend at a lower future number.

[JPB]

This is a great chart. Mind sharing where you found it (or is it one you built?)?

I'm flattered you considered it could be my own built but...:

https://www.draftexpress.com/

there's the exact % if you mouse over the columns (just saw that lol).

[LeBowen]

The word is that several 2nd level stars are interested in Wemby, so KM should be right there especially since he's a little lower than that. Also, he can only opt out after he's played 1 season, which is why I'd preger he opt-in as part of the deal. Even if he doesn't though, is anyone really paying him more in year 2 than he can get by opting in? I doubt it, which open up the opportunity to extend at a lower future number.

Imo, those second level stars would be some younger players.
Odds of Spurs winning a ring in 2025 or 2026 are really low, I dom't think any star older than 30 is on the list.

If the word is true, those stars would most likely be along the lines of players in their mid-late 20s looking to finally win like Mitc , Lavine, Bridges, Trae, Markkanen, Fox or upcoming stars looking to get out of ty franchises like Lamelo and Cade.

[JPB]

An here's a few interesting stats, before if I find (or not) the pick by pick career expectations. Source seems reliable (somehow).

https://gitnux.org/average-nba-career-length/



Average NBA Career Length Statistics
.
The average career length of an NBA player is 4.5 years.
Only 5% of NBA players last more than 14 seasons in the league.
Nearly 60% of NBA players have careers that span two seasons or less.
Players on guaranteed contracts average a length of 4.8 years.
players who have All-Star appearance average 11.7 career years in the NBA.
The average career length of an NBA first-round pick is about six years.
On average, NBA players retire at age 34.
Only 20% of NBA players play past their fifth season.
Shooting guards have the second longest career average at 4.8 years.
Players who make the NBA All-Rookie First Team average more than 9 seasons.
Power forwards have the third longest career average at 4.7 years.
The average age of NBA draft picks since 2000 is 21.
14% of NBA players have a career that lasts ten seasons or longer.
Players who make the NBA All-Star team at least once, on average, last 12.2 seasons.
Small forwards average 4.6 years in their careers.
The average player drafted in the lottery since 2000 played in the NBA for 10.6 years.
Point guards average 4.5 years in their careers.
NBA players who are 7 feet tall or taller average careers of nearly 10 seasons.

[Ignazzz]

Nets got offer 4 FRP for Bridges and said NO.

[CGD]

Nets got offer 4 FRP for Bridges and said NO.

They’re idiots.

[BacktoBasics]

An here's a few interesting stats, before if I find (or not) the pick by pick career expectations. Source seems reliable (somehow).

https://gitnux.org/average-nba-career-length/



Average NBA Career Length Statistics
.
The average career length of an NBA player is 4.5 years.
Only 5% of NBA players last more than 14 seasons in the league.
Nearly 60% of NBA players have careers that span two seasons or less.
Players on guaranteed contracts average a length of 4.8 years.
players who have All-Star appearance average 11.7 career years in the NBA.
The average career length of an NBA first-round pick is about six years.
On average, NBA players retire at age 34.
Only 20% of NBA players play past their fifth season.
Shooting guards have the second longest career average at 4.8 years.
Players who make the NBA All-Rookie First Team average more than 9 seasons.
Power forwards have the third longest career average at 4.7 years.
The average age of NBA draft picks since 2000 is 21.
14% of NBA players have a career that lasts ten seasons or longer.
Players who make the NBA All-Star team at least once, on average, last 12.2 seasons.
Small forwards average 4.6 years in their careers.
The average player drafted in the lottery since 2000 played in the NBA for 10.6 years.
Point guards average 4.5 years in their careers.
NBA players who are 7 feet tall or taller average careers of nearly 10 seasons.

This should be mandatory reading material for this board. The constant complaining about picks panning out without any reasonable basis to go off of.

[spurraider21]

Nets got offer 4 FRP for Bridges and said NO.

a) i dont believe them
b) if they are telling the truth, then the nets are idiots

[LeBowen]

a) i dont believe them
b) if they are telling the truth, then the nets are idiots

It's accurate and the entire story is kind of hillarious because it turned out to be a massive L for the Nets.
Before the season started, Memphis offered 4 FRPs for Bridges.
Still, it made sense since Memphis already has their core and those picks were supposed to be bad. I guess at least one was also lottery protected Wizards/Suns swap.

Anyhow, they didn't take the offer because they bought into the Bridges hype. He averaged 26ppg in 27 games after the trade last season.
He comes down to his actual level this season, his value tanks and Memphis pick will be top10 due to all the injuries they had.

Supposedly they asked for 3 FRP at the deadline and noone even tried to negotiate it.
They'll be lucky to get two average picks and a solid player this summer.
And it looks like Bridges is done with the Nets. He's about to turn 28, he's not good enough to be the first option and he wants to win.

If the cost is just something like I mentioned a few posts ago, then Spurs should go for it regardless of other roster developments.

[Chinook]

I'll say this: I don't think any vet acquired by the team this year is likely to be a prominent member of the roster by the time the team is ready to contend. They'll either be too old or too expensive in the world of the second apron. Trading for Bridges is making a trade for two or three years from now while paying as if he's the missing piece right now. It's a very similar move to Young, though with less upside and down.

[vy65]

Yep, Vassell being on track to become Middleton would be more reason to bring in Khris to mentor him. Then in a couple of years, Middleton steps back or moves on, Vassell takes his role, and a young SF like Holland moves into the starting lineup.

Instead of trading draft picks to bring in a young vet SF at a premium, they're bringing in an actualized SF while using fewer picks to draft his successor. It's significantly more sustainable while also being more likely to lead to immediate success.

I think you had floated the idea of KD before. With the Suns being a round one sweep/second apron team, you’d have to think that they’ll do something with their core. I’d rather KD than Middleton.

[LeBowen]

I'll say this: I don't think any vet acquired by the team this year is likely to be a prominent member of the roster by the time the team is ready to contend. They'll either be too old or too expensive in the world of the second apron. Trading for Bridges is making a trade for two or three years from now while paying as if he's the missing piece right now. It's a very similar move to Young, though with less upside and down.

Depends if those vets would be willing to take paycuts in order to stay with the team and contend.
But we really have to start somewhere. Right now this roster is disgustingly bad and Wemby obviously won't accept tanking for a couple more years.
What are we supposed to do? We've got two NBA players and two more who could be NBA players. Put all our hopes on a couple of rookies in a bad draft and then some more hope in the next draft?
Wait for those rookies and sophmores to develop?

Being outside of play-in contention the next season would be disastrous for everyone.
Wemby, PATFO's reputation, fanbase and attendance.

[TD 21]

Hard no on CJ McCollum. Old, bad contract, poor defender, volume scorer who looked completely washed against OKC. The Spurs already have plenty of guys who can shoot 24% from three in the playoffs.

In an ideal world, I agree. Within' the confines of what I believe this overly conservative organization wants to or is willing to do, if he could be had in the context discussed, he should be a consideration.

I don't see a reason why would 33 year old Middleton want to join the Spurs only to get the same contract security he would with the Bucks and to be out of contract as a 34 year old, injury prone veteran.
Tbh, idk why are we even discussing him. As long as Giannis is with the Bucks, Middleton will also be there.

There's no reason to think he would at any point or that the Spurs would want him too and Portis wouldn't fit their precious "culture" (which is code for avoiding inner city stereotypes unless the value is too good to pass up, like Murray at 29).

But we really have to start somewhere. Right now this roster is disgustingly bad and Wemby obviously won't accept tanking for a couple more years.
What are we supposed to do? We've got two NBA players and two more who could be NBA players. Put all our hopes on a couple of rookies in a bad draft and then some more hope in the next draft?
Wait for those rookies and sophmores to develop?

Being outside of play-in contention the next season would be disastrous for everyone.
Wemby, PATFO's reputation, fanbase and attendance.

Don't worry, if they're just patient, in short order they'll either draft the Parker and Ginobili to Wembanyama's Duncan or one of the handful of MVP caliber players will demand a trade, naturally to here specifically and they'll acquire them for pennies on the dollar.

[Chinook]

This thread is very specifically not about what the Spurs would "actually do". It's about what posters would consider to be their ideal off-season. Some of us have put limits on what that means for sanity, but for the most part this is our chance to say what we want independent of what PATFO thinks. It makes zero sense to try to criticize that while also criticizing folks who defer all judgment on player moves to PATFO.

[TD 21]

I'm aware and was speaking generally.

Even so, you might want to operate within' the basis of reality and if you follow the league closely enough, you'd know that Middleton isn't going anywhere as long as Antetokounmpo is around and Portis wouldn't fit their precious "culture".

You're far from the only one, but this is the one I scrolled across and I don't care enough to bother going through the rest.

[Chinook]

Depends if those vets would be willing to take paycuts in order to stay with the team and contend.

Yes, like Middleton might take a paycut and lesser role to stay. Guys who are popular on here are going to be in the back half of their primes and at the peak of their earning potential. It's very unlikely the NBA culture shifts enough that fast in order for it to be kosher to give up money to form a good team.

But we really have to start somewhere. Right now this roster is disgustingly bad and Wemby obviously won't accept tanking for a couple more years.

This is insecurity brought on by Leonard's situation. It's not rational to worry about that. Wemby doesn't actually give off vibes that he wants his teammates gone. That's fans and the media assuming it. He seems to like his teammates and probably hopes to win with them. Given that the team was much closer to a .500 club after the ASB, I don't think Wemby's as worried as you are.

What are we supposed to do? We've got two NBA players and two more who could be NBA players. Put all our hopes on a couple of rookies in a bad draft and then some more hope in the next draft?
Wait for those rookies and sophmores to develop?

I've given my opinion on what the Spurs could do that is nothing like what you're proposing. They don't have to make some overpay for meh "young" players in an attempt to build a long-lasting team around Victor. They need to embrace how evanescent the NBA is and bring in guys who can be good examples in the locker room and on the court while the young players develop. The first mistake that teams that lose their star do is try to spent a bench on a "young co-star" for their franchise player. It's basically always the wrong move. I believe they should get older, good players and continue to draft guys to replace them. Along the lines of what folks are talking about in this thread, there are older vets who'd be interested in playing on the Spurs. They don't all have the compulsion to seek a ring, nor are all of them willing to take min deals to be bit players on one few true contenders assuming those teams have spots for them at all. The Spurs should absolutely be aggressive in finding those players. They just need to stay away from all of the popular targets mentioned here.

Being outside of play-in contention the next season would be disastrous for everyone.
Wemby, PATFO's reputation, fanbase and attendance.

Eh, it really wouldn't. It depends on how the season goes. Most of us expect the team to compete for a playoff spot. But there are a lot of scenarios where it doesn't happen and it not be a bad thing. I don't think folks have to worry about attendance numbers for a long time given Victor's abilities.

[MultiTroll]

I think you had floated the idea of KD before. With the Suns being a round one sweep/second apron team, you’d have to think that they’ll do something with their core. I’d rather KD than Middleton.

What they say and what they do can always vary.
That being said, they are claiming the trades for Durbeta, Beal and the BookerDashian extention were all made with a 3-4 year plan that they are sticking to.
I didn't save the link.
Believe it was Bookerdashian who was quoted. Can't recall if any of the FO chimed in.

[MultiTroll]

I'm not getting a stiffy over Middleton.
Indiana is very injured themselves so i would not judge by this R1 win.

Didn't he miss like half this season?