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  1. #1
    Millennial Messiah UNT Eagles 2016's Avatar
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    All major outlets are predicting a near-record or record-breaking 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season, at least in terms of overall ac ulated cyclone energy, total hurricanes, and total major hurricanes. Will be difficult to beat the 30 named storms of 2020, but that year had a ton of weak and short-lived storms that arguably should not have been named.

    Official government forecast is for 17-25 named storms, the most bullish forecast in history.

    https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/no...rricane-season

    Current Sea surface temperature anomalies centralized in the Atlantic similar to 2005. Neutral conditions persist as of late May 2024 with a displaced La Nina to the east and El Nino persisting in the West Pacific equatorially. This is known as the Modoki setup which is very similar to what happened from 2004 leading into 2005, the most powerful and devastating hurricane season in modern history, including Katrina, Dennis, Rita, and Wilma. Expect La Nina to gradually strengthen between now and the end of 2024 and for a weak to moderate La Nina to impact the coming winter.



  2. #2
    Millennial Messiah UNT Eagles 2016's Avatar
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    June Fajrun, but, no "A" storm yet or nothing on the horizon.

  3. #3
    Millennial Messiah UNT Eagles 2016's Avatar
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    As per the SST maps, seems like El Nino Modoki seems to persist. La Nina in the East Pacific, but El Nino remains in the 3.4 and 4 regions, closer to the West Pacific and Indonesia.

    Reminds me a lot of June 2005. Ominous. We didn't get a storm that year until mid June but then it REALLY ramped up quickly.

  4. #4
    Millennial Messiah UNT Eagles 2016's Avatar
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    I will say this, in early June 2005 the "neutral" across the Pacific was more evenly spread out, and we didn't have that hot pool in the far north Pacific near Alaska like this year.


  5. #5
    Millennial Messiah UNT Eagles 2016's Avatar
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    Easterly La Nina / El Nino Modoki split continues to persist. SST anomalies have cooled in the southern Atlantic near the Gulf of Guinea, though not nearly to the extent of 2005 to this point. Wind shear is still too strong to permit most development in the Atlantic, but we do have our first couple disturbances. The one off the East coast won't develop, but I expect to see our first named storm out of the orange coded one in the Bay of Campeche:


  6. #6
    Millennial Messiah UNT Eagles 2016's Avatar
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  7. #7
    Millennial Messiah UNT Eagles 2016's Avatar
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    18Z is 13:00 so 1PM CDT.

    in honor of summer 2022 Marissa, it's 19:06 in Michigan and Ohio... 18:06 in Texas.

  8. #8
    Millennial Messiah UNT Eagles 2016's Avatar
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    That's definitely a landfalling 50-60 MPH tropical storm Alberto and a big time soaker for South Texas.

  9. #9
    Take the fcking keys away baseline bum's Avatar
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    Yeah no I'm not taking much from a nonlinear differential equation's time series two weeks out.

  10. #10
    Against Home Schooling Ef-man's Avatar
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    Ok, I see 9 posts but where are Andy's travel logs, dating opportunities, taking mom along in travel, political landscape, misogamy references, and misadventures at?

  11. #11
    Millennial Messiah UNT Eagles 2016's Avatar
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    Google Timeline shut down literally on May 24th and my phone deleted all of that data. Before, in the past 15 and a half years I've been able to store it neatly on my web browser. Given that I'm a millennial and thus a computer person and not a phone person, the future seems very bleak.

    dating opportunities
    Very bleak. I haven't had sex since May 29th, 2023, in Wausau, Wisconsin. That relationship ended June 2, 2023 with me calling the cops on her for stranding me at a dentist office Amanda drove off threw a 7 year old girl temper tantrum and almost crushed my feet with her Nissan Rogue in the process.. I haven't had any decent shot at any relationship with anyone else since.

    taking mom along in travel
    Non existent since June 4-July 5, 2022. But, that trip home with her shouldn't have happened. Not only was I completely dead and cranky at 1:30am when mega construction forced me off I-35 in Waco on the night of July 5th/ going into 6th, costing me an hour in time and more in sanity, but if I would only have just paid for the extended stay at that hotel to help Marissa transition away from her parents' house into living with me, I probably would have had a good wife by now in her. Instead, I dumped her in the parking lot, in Plymouth Michigan because I'm a jerk, at least was in 2022. The way that relationship ended... was completely my fault.

    political landscape
    It's going to be close. Whoever wins wins fair and square, I just hope the counting is completed on the night of election night and all relevant states and the presidency can be called. 2020 was shenanigans. 2012 was fair and square. 2016 and 2008 also.

    misogamy references
    Yeah, I was railroaded. Don't even get me started. I'm appealing the adjudication, for sure, and have a damn good lawyer up there in Lynchburg VA. She's going to get that overturned, but it can take up to another year or so.

    I've had 1 good adventure (the week in Florida, flew) and two "misadventures" (bad adventures, waste of trip etc), one in early March to MI and MN which was about a week, and the other one in spring spent the majority of it in MI and OH and was pretty much lonely throughout the way. Don't feel like traveling anymore honestly, especially with my Google Timeline memories ripped from the internet server which is essentially my brain.

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