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  1. #351
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    Atlanta is drowning. They canít improve without tearing it down, which means theyíll finish like 8-12. Whatís lost in the discussion is thatís still a pretty decent pick each year, even if they donít jump into the top 4. Iím not completely out on the trade, but Iím skeptical, and I think this year is the wrong time to do it.

    There was a buzz around the league and the blogosphere this season after the ASB. In brief, it seemed like they made a correction to officiating to allow more defense. Normally,the league releases guidance on this,but they said nothing, leading many to think it was a trial period, leading to a full rollout next season. The gist of it is, theyíre not allowing foul hunting to the degree they have in the past. If thatís the case, Trae becomes much less valuable, because he becomes even less efficient with fewer FTs. Thatís why I would wait. If someone like the Lakers jumps in and grabs him, good for us. Those three picks will climb, because the only near term pick the Lakers have is this year, at #17, which wonít help Atlanta. Their other two picks are after our 25-27 ATL pick window.
    I'd have no issue waiting for the trade deadline, but that would eliminate getting the #1 pick. Unless they draft him.

  2. #352
    Every game is game 1 Seventyniner's Avatar
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    My suggestions:

    Hawks Get:

    #8
    ATL25
    ATL27
    26 Swap removed
    Some Players

    Spurs Get:

    #1
    Trae

    So, Atlanta nets 2 picks, a swap, and whatever players are included

    Could switch out 8 for 4, but I wouldn't send both.
    Oh, your trade involves #8 going out. DPG's version had the Spurs keeping #8.

  3. #353
    El rojo y los Spurs!!! Ariel's Avatar
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    They are not going into a full rebuild with the requisite tank job without their picks. Their picks are incredibly valuable to them right now since the DJM trade did not produce the desired results. The perceived value of those picks right now is way higher than the likely actual value. Just like trading DJM after his all star year got back premium value trading the picks now gets back premium value again. Just look at this forum. You mention Atlanta 25 and everyone gets a woody. That is a sure sign that people are overvaluing the picks. I've made a load of money over the years doing that same thing in the stock and options markets. John Rockefeller once said he got rich by accomodating people. When everyone wants to buy I sell to them. When everyone wants to sell I buy from them. Now is the time to cash in on perceived value.
    On paper it makes sense, Atlanta's picks are more valuable in their hands than they are in the Spurs' because they'd have incentive to maximize their value (i.e., tank), and we could trade them back and split the difference. However, I don't love their assets, and they're incompetent enough that they may still give up high picks even if they don't intend to do so, kind of like Brooklyn's picks. I guess it depends on how desperate they are, if they don't want to recongnize that fact and pay the price, then I'd take my chances with the picks, but if they REALLY want those picks back then I'm sure you can find a way, maybe even re routing their assets (players) to a third team for value.

  4. #354
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    Getting their own picks back is waaaaaay more valuable to the Hawks than normal FRPs. If they get their bag back then no additional picks:

    Hawks get: Atl 25, Atl 27, cancel 26 swap, Char 25, Collins, Tre, filler
    Spurs get: Trae, Atl 24

    Atlanta is the desperate team here, not the Spurs. That opens up so much flexibility for them it is unreal.
    If ATL is desperate, why are you being so generous?

  5. #355
    Bruce Almighty Bruno's Avatar
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    The whole "he is working out with Spurs because there are talks about Spurs trading up" thing is incredibility stupid. Risacher isn't at all a lock to be drafted top2 and Spurs at #4 would be a great draft outcome for him. I'm quite sure that he would rather be drafted at #4 by Spurs than at #2 by Wizards.

    What lies behind all theses rumors is that Hawks don't have an obvious choice with their first pick. Sarr might be too much a project for a team that is trying to win now. Risacher won't really improve their roster given that they already have De'Andre Hunter, Jalen Johnson and Bogdan Bogdanovic. Clingan is the player who will help them the most in the next couple of years but they might think he will be there at #3 or #4 with the lower salary associated...

  6. #356
    Starter off the bench Uriel's Avatar
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    The whole "he is working out with Spurs because there are talks about Spurs trading up" thing is incredibility stupid. Risacher isn't at all a lock to be drafted top2 and Spurs at #4 would be a great draft outcome for him. I'm quite sure that he would rather be drafted at #4 by Spurs than at #2 by Wizards.

    What lies behind all theses rumors is that Hawks don't have an obvious choice with their first pick. Sarr might be too much a project for a team that is trying to win now. Risacher won't really improve their roster given that they already have De'Andre Hunter, Jalen Johnson and Bogdan Bogdanovic. Clingan is the player who will help them the most in the next couple of years but they might think he will be there at #3 or #4 with the lower salary associated...
    In that case, we should offer to swap the #4 pick and a second round pick or a heavily protected future first round pick in exchange for the #1 pick. And if they say no, then just wager that they pick Clingan anyway and hope Zaccharie falls into our laps.

  7. #357
    The Dude minds DPG21920's Avatar
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    The whole "he is working out with Spurs because there are talks about Spurs trading up" thing is incredibility stupid. Risacher isn't at all a lock to be drafted top2 and Spurs at #4 would be a great draft outcome for him. I'm quite sure that he would rather be drafted at #4 by Spurs than at #2 by Wizards.

    What lies behind all theses rumors is that Hawks don't have an obvious choice with their first pick. Sarr might be too much a project for a team that is trying to win now. Risacher won't really improve their roster given that they already have De'Andre Hunter, Jalen Johnson and Bogdan Bogdanovic. Clingan is the player who will help them the most in the next couple of years but they might think he will be there at #3 or #4 with the lower salary associated...
    I just laugh at how so many think mock draft rankings are exactly what teams go off of and that nothing else matters. Value is relative especially in a draft like this. And it’s doubly funny to think ATL would “love” Clingan at 4 but cant stomach taking him at 1?

    No, if Clingan in their guy, while they may like to extract extra value, they are going to draft him without hesitation at 1. Theres zero scenario where they say “well we love Clingan the most but you know its just not worth it at one like it is at 4”

  8. #358
    Veteran scott's Avatar
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    I can't wait for draft day to get here already since we've been doing this exercise since November

    Hope draft day is complete chaos with a zillion unexpected trades tbh

  9. #359
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    In that case, we should offer to swap the #4 pick and a second round pick or a heavily protected future first round pick in exchange for the #1 pick. And if they say no, then just wager that they pick Clingan anyway and hope Zaccharie falls into our laps.
    It also depends on how Spurs like Risacher compared to other prospect. If they like Castle nearly as much, there is a good chance that at least one of them will be available at #4. Spurs can also trade up with Wizards or Rockets which should be less expensive than trading up with Hawks...

    To be honest, I have quite no clue what Spurs will do because I don't know how they have evaluated various prospect and what is their whole rebuilding plan. Aside of listing some various scenarios that are sensible, there isn't a lot more to say. Wait and see...

  10. #360
    Bruce Almighty Bruno's Avatar
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    I just laugh at how so many think mock draft rankings are exactly what teams go off of and that nothing else matters. Value is relative especially in a draft like this. And itís doubly funny to think ATL would ďloveĒ Clingan at 4 but cant stomach taking him at 1?

    No, if Clingan in their guy, while they may like to extract extra value, they are going to draft him without hesitation at 1. Theres zero scenario where they say ďwell we love Clingan the most but you know its just not worth it at one like it is at 4Ē
    I think it's more complicate than that.

    Sarr and Risacher are viewed as the only legit option at #1. If Landry Fields (Hawks GM) goes with Clingan an it doesn't work, he is basically done as a GM. Chris Grant, who made the bold move of going with Anthony Bennett at #1 in 2013, still hasn't recovered from it. If Fields go with Sarr/Risacher and it doesn't work, the backlash will be way smaller because it would be a case of "we were all wrong about him".

    Fields also isn't working in a quiet environment with Hawks. Trae Young has publicly put pressure on Hawks FO and there is Hawks owner's son breathing down his neck.

    The key factor for Hawks is how they view their future with Young. If they think he will stick with them, Clingan might be the right pick. If they think he will soon ask to be traded, the high upside Sarr should go #1. Risacher is the in-between choice who is a weird fit with their roster.

  11. #361
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    I think it's more complicate than that.

    Sarr and Risacher are viewed as the only legit option at #1. If Landry Fields (Hawks GM) goes with Clingan an it doesn't work, he is basically done as a GM. Chris Grant, who made the bold move of going with Anthony Bennett at #1 in 2013, still hasn't recovered from it. If Fields go with Sarr/Risacher and it doesn't work, the backlash will be way smaller because it would be a case of "we were all wrong about him".

    Fields also isn't working in a quiet environment with Hawks. Trae Young has publicly put pressure on Hawks FO and there is Hawks owner's son breathing down his neck.

    The key factor for Hawks is how they view their future with Young. If they think he will stick with them, Clingan might be the right pick. If they think he will soon ask to be traded, the high upside Sarr should go #1. Risacher is the in-between choice who is a weird fit with their roster.
    next couple of weeks cant come soon enough.

  12. #362
    Every game is game 1 Seventyniner's Avatar
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    Fields also isn't working in a quiet environment with Hawks. Trae Young has publicly put pressure on Hawks FO and there is Hawks owner's son breathing down his neck.
    imo this is the important part. While many of the deals we discuss here might be good or bad in a vacuum, teams have idiosyncrasies like the Hawks do in your list. That makes teams do strange, even stupid, things sometimes.

    The Hawks should be the team that the Spurs are having the most discussions with up to and including draft days (man it's weird to have that be a plural).

    Random question: can players picked during round 1 be traded the next day during round 2? I would hope so.

  13. #363
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    The whole "he is working out with Spurs because there are talks about Spurs trading up" thing is incredibility stupid. Risacher isn't at all a lock to be drafted top2 and Spurs at #4 would be a great draft outcome for him. I'm quite sure that he would rather be drafted at #4 by Spurs than at #2 by Wizards.

    What lies behind all theses rumors is that Hawks don't have an obvious choice with their first pick. Sarr might be too much a project for a team that is trying to win now. Risacher won't really improve their roster given that they already have De'Andre Hunter, Jalen Johnson and Bogdan Bogdanovic. Clingan is the player who will help them the most in the next couple of years but they might think he will be there at #3 or #4 with the lower salary associated...
    Bingo. The Trade up narrative is totally of ATL's (and WAS) doing. Spurs are truly in a great position in this specific draft.

  14. #364
    Body Of Work Mr. Body's Avatar
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    I think it's more complicate than that.

    Sarr and Risacher are viewed as the only legit option at #1. If Landry Fields (Hawks GM) goes with Clingan an it doesn't work, he is basically done as a GM. Chris Grant, who made the bold move of going with Anthony Bennett at #1 in 2013, still hasn't recovered from it. If Fields go with Sarr/Risacher and it doesn't work, the backlash will be way smaller because it would be a case of "we were all wrong about him".

    Fields also isn't working in a quiet environment with Hawks. Trae Young has publicly put pressure on Hawks FO and there is Hawks owner's son breathing down his neck.

    The key factor for Hawks is how they view their future with Young. If they think he will stick with them, Clingan might be the right pick. If they think he will soon ask to be traded, the high upside Sarr should go #1. Risacher is the in-between choice who is a weird fit with their roster.
    Totally agree about the tight spot he's in. The fanbase won't be happy with a Clingan pick. Even if none of them know much about Sarr, the narrative has already been set (by mock drafters and ESPN types). "Oh no, we drafted a big white stiff!"

    Of course they'd like to squeeze some value out of the pick. I'm not sure trading down with Clingan still in mind is the right way to go, in any case. Supposing the Spurs jump up to get Risacher, then I guess Sarr immediately goes to Washington. The risk is still that Houston trades down with a team that wants to steal the UConn big man. And then (in this scene) Atlanta has the 4 and 8 without the defensive anchor they wanted.

  15. #365
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    Sarr and Risacher are viewed as the only legit option at #1.
    is it just me and I just got a wrong impression about it, or did someone else also notice that there isn't that much interest in Sarr in the last weeks?
    so maybe he is no longer viewed as a legit top 2 pick? that would leave Risacher as the only option for Fields regarding not risking his GM job.

  16. #366
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    My suggestions:

    Hawks Get:

    #8
    ATL25
    ATL27
    26 Swap removed
    Some Players

    Spurs Get:

    #1
    Trae

    So, Atlanta nets 2 picks, a swap, and whatever players are included

    Could switch out 8 for 4, but I wouldn't send both.
    I really hope we don't do that. I don't see a scenario where if include 25 atl pick. Maybe the lesser of ours and their's, but that'd be it.

  17. #367
    The Dude minds DPG21920's Avatar
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    I think it's more complicate than that.

    Sarr and Risacher are viewed as the only legit option at #1. If Landry Fields (Hawks GM) goes with Clingan an it doesn't work, he is basically done as a GM. Chris Grant, who made the bold move of going with Anthony Bennett at #1 in 2013, still hasn't recovered from it. If Fields go with Sarr/Risacher and it doesn't work, the backlash will be way smaller because it would be a case of "we were all wrong about him".

    Fields also isn't working in a quiet environment with Hawks. Trae Young has publicly put pressure on Hawks FO and there is Hawks owner's son breathing down his neck.

    The key factor for Hawks is how they view their future with Young. If they think he will stick with them, Clingan might be the right pick. If they think he will soon ask to be traded, the high upside Sarr should go #1. Risacher is the in-between choice who is a weird fit with their roster.
    That’s true - but in this draft it’s way less consensus IMO on who is the “top” pick. While Sarr/Risacher may be kind of in the lead, it’s not the no brainer conversation that usually accompanies a legit franchise prospect.

    Taking Bennett is a big risk when theres other really higher rated players but in a draft like this, from what I see most fans and pundits all have similar messaging: theres no for sure star so pressure in that regard feels less.

    But absolutely Trae is dictating things so there is that but Im factoring all that in as assumed. Clingan wont be their main target if Trae is likely to leave. So Im just saying that if Clingan in their guy its not going to matter getting him at 1 v 4 because they have already done that Trae calculus and arrived at their conclusion.

  18. #368
    Veteran scott's Avatar
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    I really hope we don't do that. I don't see a scenario where if include 25 atl pick. Maybe the lesser of ours and their's, but that'd be it.
    Yeah I don't actually want this to happen, I just think it's a deal that ATL would agree to. I'm out on the Trae wagon (and I like him more than a lot of folks here)

  19. #369
    Bruce Almighty Bruno's Avatar
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    is it just me and I just got a wrong impression about it, or did someone else also notice that there isn't that much interest in Sarr in the last weeks?
    so maybe he is no longer viewed as a legit top 2 pick? that would leave Risacher as the only option for Fields regarding not risking his GM job.
    Sarr being the first choice for Wizards is something a lot of people agree on. He is the kind of long term and high upside prospect that is perfect for a team that is starting a full rebuild like Washington is. He is also playing a position where they don't have a good player or prospect since the Gafford trade.

    The only uncertainty about Sarr is whether he will be picked #1 or #2. I'm guessing that's why there isn't a lot of talk about him.

  20. #370
    Mahinmi in ? picnroll's Avatar
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    I pray to god the Spurs don’t acquire Young even for a second round pick in 2050.

  21. #371
    Body Of Work Mr. Body's Avatar
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    I wonder if the real play here is Washington swapping with Atlanta.

    That way Atlanta gets to be safe taking Clingan. Washington probably prefers Sarr.

    Not sure what it would take but Atlanta could squeeze and asset while still getting their man. Maybe like Kispert, although that feels a little rich.

  22. #372
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    I wonder if the real play here is Washington swapping with Atlanta.

    That way Atlanta gets to be safe taking Clingan. Washington probably prefers Sarr.

    Not sure what it would take but Atlanta could squeeze and asset while still getting their man. Maybe like Kispert, although that feels a little rich.
    Man, never thought Iíd feel bad for a team that got the #1 pick but this is close. Probably CLE in 2013, but those guys got so many 1st in a short span that itís hard to.

  23. #373
    Dyna5ty BatManu20's Avatar
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  24. #374
    The Dude minds DPG21920's Avatar
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    I just dont see how this makes sense at all. 4+8 to move up doesnt make sense. Certainly 4 or 8 + an ATL pick back doesnt make sense either IMO.

    So what does SA having ATL picks have to do with it?

    The only thing I could see and I highly doubt SA does it (Im not talking about a bigger trade involving Trae or Murray, in that case SA having ATL picks makes them linking up reasonable) is pick 1 for ATL 25’ pick back to ATL.

    Spurs keep picks 4 & 8 and get pick 1 as well. ATL gets their own pick back in 25’ and then could in theory reset if they wanted to and have some control over their fate. But again, I dont think ATL would do that.

  25. #375
    Believe. JuneJive's Avatar
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    Spurs would be crazy to deal those ATL picks back to them.

    They have them where they want them.

    Barely making the playoffs.

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