Castle ROTY watch

[baseline bum]

This is a 23-games sample size by the way. I won't be surprised if Castle is an 18 ppg guy on better efficiency next season.

For what is widely considered the weakest draft class in more than 20 years, the Spurs really hit a home run with the 4th pick (the equivalent of 10-12th pick in a normal/strong draft)

Kinda weird how much these odds are fluctuating. A couple of days ago Bovada had Steph at -1100 for ROY. Now it's -700, with Sarr and Risacher both tied at +1500 for second place.

https://www.bovada.lv/sports/basketb...rs/futures-odd

[R. DeMurre]

It's funny how people go back and forth between the eye test, raw stats, and impact stats-- I know I'm always trying to find a balance there, but sometimes we look for the best "evidence" to back up our already maybe slightly biased views. I love the way Castle looks on court-- the confidence, the aggression, the driving, passing, and defense-- but his overall impact numbers are relatively bad, with a negative BPM and a big net negative of -16 on his ORtg/Drtg of 104/120. This isn't completely uncommon with 20 yr old rookies, but I can't say it doesn't worry me at least a little bit. I'd bet his impact stats take a significant leap next year along with his raw stats... if they don't, then it'll turn into a much more interesting debate.

[spurraider21]

rookies tend to have efficiency/turnover issues and so they rarely show well with advanced stats. and to be fair, its not like his defense has been anything special for the last few weeks either.

but when you are trying to see if his game translates to the pro level, if his bullyball tendencies would work against bigger/stronger athletes, its pretty clear it does. his handles are better than i expected.

its still an open question of how big a role he will end up being good at. its possible that his game simply doesnt scale up well, and he shouldnt be shooting as much as he is right now. but the early returns are promising. the kid is good enough, but he has to work out a lot of th warts in his game.

[Ice009]

rookies tend to have efficiency/turnover issues and so they rarely show well with advanced stats. and to be fair, its not like his defense has been anything special for the last few weeks either.

but when you are trying to see if his game translates to the pro level, if his bullyball tendencies would work against bigger/stronger athletes, its pretty clear it does. his handles are better than i expected.

its still an open question of how big a role he will end up being good at. its possible that his game simply doesnt scale up well, and he shouldnt be shooting as much as he is right now. but the early returns are promising. the kid is good enough, but he has to work out a lot of th warts in his game.

He is definitely getting a lot of shots. I've been looking at that the past couple of weeks (even though he was in foul trouble last game, he still got up quite a few shots), so I wonder how he'd play if he gets less shots and had to up his efficiency.
One reason would be because he has the ball in his hands quite a bit since he can handle the ball better than most guys on the team. Not sure if you guys think he's been calling his own number a little too much lately and not passing it as much as he could be, or maybe he's just trying to get the Spurs back in the games as a lot of the guys on the team can't create for themselves. I don't know, he's a rookie, so the balance isn't quite there at this early stage of his development. I'm more than OK with it as I'd rather he try and develop as much as possible, but curious what you guys think about his balance between shooting and playmaking.

[spurraider21]

He is definitely getting a lot of shots. I've been looking at that the past couple of weeks (even though he was in foul trouble last game, he still got up quite a few shots), so I wonder how he'd play if he gets less shots and had to up his efficiency.
One reason would be because he has the ball in his hands quite a bit since he can handle the ball better than most guys on the team. Not sure if you guys think he's been calling his own number a little too much lately and not passing it as much as he could be, or maybe he's just trying to get the Spurs back in the games as a lot of the guys on the team can't create for themselves. I don't know, he's a rookie, so the balance isn't quite there at this early stage of his development. I'm more than OK with it as I'd rather he try and develop as much as possible, but curious what you guys think about his balance between shooting and playmaking.

its also easy to say "well theres no wemby or fox so he has to take on more, which would lead to efficiency issues" but his efficiency has been poor all season

[scott]

His biggest weakness is how he causes Vassell to miss so many wide open 3s. Until he cleans that up, he won't pass the eye test.

[Mr. Body]

I don't know how you can watch him play and make up about "the eye test." If there's a problem with Castle it's finishing overall. You can say that will improve, or not. Those are legitimate opinions.

It is not, however, a legitimate opinion to say he doesn't pass the eye test, because he absolutely does. It just means you don't know what you're looking at.

[exstatic]

I don't know how you can watch him play and make up about "the eye test." If there's a problem with Castle it's finishing overall. You can say that will improve, or not. Those are legitimate opinions.

It is not, however, a legitimate opinion to say he doesn't pass the eye test, because he absolutely does. It just means you don't know what you're looking at.

65% in the restricted area, so, maybe not so much. Finishing is one of his strong points.

[tim_duncan_fan]

Gotta put some RPG level-up points in the Shooting skill. These 40% overall percentage nights will hopefully happen less as he gets more time in the league.

[spurraider21]

being able to bully and score through Bridges + Anunoby... thats not normal

[ambchang]

Love castle and he has exceeded all I’ve expected of him in his rookie season. His outside shot is getting better and he has no concerning hesitation launching them, he can be a strong defensive player but advanced stats aren't backing that up yet. He’s playing one of the hardest roles to learn (lead guard, sort of) and seems to be getting a decent handle on it. No doubt castle is the right pick and likely the best player in the draft when viewed in a vacuum. But …

I’ve been excited about keldon, I’ve been excited about Vassell, then sochan (remember his rookie year when he showed so much promise?), and we all thought wemby would challenge for the mvp this year with his second half last year, but then keldon never learned defense, Vassell forgot about defense and forgot how to play offense either, sochan took a huge step back last year and is taking a little step forward this year with his ceiling falling line Tesla stocks did the last few months, and wemby came out of the gates this year struggling and not showing any marked improvements in his game. I’m not sure what PATFO will do to castle next year. Will they try him at PF to see if it can compliment wemby jacking 10 3s a game? Will they continue to stick him on the bench and play him 15 mins a game? Will they have a competent staff working on his shooting with him? Will they insist on playing him with a lineup of sochan, bassey, Wesley and keldon to make sure there is no spacing? I have no idea, but PATFO just plays so much 4D chess that the players are lost in another dimension.

[spurraider21]

Love castle and he has exceeded all I’ve expected of him in his rookie season. His outside shot is getting better and he has no concerning hesitation launching them, he can be a strong defensive player but advanced stats aren't backing that up yet. He’s playing one of the hardest roles to learn (lead guard, sort of) and seems to be getting a decent handle on it. No doubt castle is the right pick and likely the best player in the draft when viewed in a vacuum. But …

I’ve been excited about keldon, I’ve been excited about Vassell, then sochan (remember his rookie year when he showed so much promise?), and we all thought wemby would challenge for the mvp this year with his second half last year, but then keldon never learned defense, Vassell forgot about defense and forgot how to play offense either, sochan took a huge step back last year and is taking a little step forward this year with his ceiling falling line Tesla stocks did the last few months, and wemby came out of the gates this year struggling and not showing any marked improvements in his game. I’m not sure what PATFO will do to castle next year. Will they try him at PF to see if it can compliment wemby jacking 10 3s a game? Will they continue to stick him on the bench and play him 15 mins a game? Will they have a competent staff working on his shooting with him? Will they insist on playing him with a lineup of sochan, bassey, Wesley and keldon to make sure there is no spacing? I have no idea, but PATFO just plays so much 4D chess that the players are lost in another dimension.

our development program has been pretty ass for a while tbh. dejounte is the last guy i can remember who played his best here

[ace3g]

[CGD]

our development program has been pretty ass for a while tbh. dejounte is the last guy i can remember who played his best here

I dont know man, Keldon was the 29th pick for a reason and they developed him to the point that if you re-draft that class he's comfortably in the Top 10. I'd call that a win for the developers. Devin was on a really nice trajectory too before Victor got here, but has really regressed in the last 2 season. Feels mental. I don't understand the hate for Sochan, he's been great this year coming off that dumb PG experiment last season. Then add finds on the margins like Tre Jones (who helped grease the wheels for Fox) and Champ.

The turds in the punchbowl are obviously Blake and Malaki, who have shown flashes but can't ever seem to put the pieces together. Can't bat 100%.

[CGD]

^ Derrick at 29 was also another great development story even excluding all the great stuff he's done in Boston. Lonnie had that one good playoff game for the Lakers, but really also played his best ball here. That dude was always going to be limited though, and his post-Spurs career shows that.

[scott]

Love castle and he has exceeded all I’ve expected of him in his rookie season. His outside shot is getting better and he has no concerning hesitation launching them, he can be a strong defensive player but advanced stats aren't backing that up yet. He’s playing one of the hardest roles to learn (lead guard, sort of) and seems to be getting a decent handle on it. No doubt castle is the right pick and likely the best player in the draft when viewed in a vacuum. But …

I’ve been excited about keldon, I’ve been excited about Vassell, then sochan (remember his rookie year when he showed so much promise?), and we all thought wemby would challenge for the mvp this year with his second half last year, but then keldon never learned defense, Vassell forgot about defense and forgot how to play offense either, sochan took a huge step back last year and is taking a little step forward this year with his ceiling falling line Tesla stocks did the last few months, and wemby came out of the gates this year struggling and not showing any marked improvements in his game. I’m not sure what PATFO will do to castle next year. Will they try him at PF to see if it can compliment wemby jacking 10 3s a game? Will they continue to stick him on the bench and play him 15 mins a game? Will they have a competent staff working on his shooting with him? Will they insist on playing him with a lineup of sochan, bassey, Wesley and keldon to make sure there is no spacing? I have no idea, but PATFO just plays so much 4D chess that the players are lost in another dimension.

I get what you are saying, but neither Keldon, Vassell or Sochan showed anywhere near this kind of promise (Castle, after all, is the favorite to win ROTY, whereas none of those guys even earned All Rookie 2nd Team honors), and Wemby was in the Top 5 of the MVP Ladder this year for a pretty decent stretch before Sneezes and Blot Clots took over.

[scott]

I dont know man, Keldon was the 29th pick for a reason and they developed him to the point that if you re-draft that class he's comfortably in the Top 10. I'd call that a win for the developers. Devin was on a really nice trajectory too before Victor got here, but has really regressed in the last 2 season. Feels mental. I don't understand the hate for Sochan, he's been great this year coming off that dumb PG experiment last season. Then add finds on the margins like Tre Jones (who helped grease the wheels for Fox) and Champ.

The turds in the punchbowl are obviously Blake and Malaki, who have shown flashes but can't ever seem to put the pieces together. Can't bat 100%.

Now sure I'd say Sochan has been great this year. He's been okay. I'd even say "good enough" to continue to invest in with a reasonable contract. But great is a bit of a stretch. He still wouldn't be able to start for a playoff team (heck, he can't even start for this team). Just to put things in the proper context.

^ Derrick at 29 was also another great development story even excluding all the great stuff he's done in Boston. Lonnie had that one good playoff game for the Lakers, but really also played his best ball here. That dude was always going to be limited though, and his post-Spurs career shows that.

Derrick (and Dejounte) were brought up under a different development staff (but so were Lonnie and Luka, so it's not like that staff was batting 1.000)

[dn0774]

I dont know man, Keldon was the 29th pick for a reason and they developed him to the point that if you re-draft that class he's comfortably in the Top 10. I'd call that a win for the developers. Devin was on a really nice trajectory too before Victor got here, but has really regressed in the last 2 season. Feels mental. I don't understand the hate for Sochan, he's been great this year coming off that dumb PG experiment last season. Then add finds on the margins like Tre Jones (who helped grease the wheels for Fox) and Champ.

The turds in the punchbowl are obviously Blake and Malaki, who have shown flashes but can't ever seem to put the pieces together. Can't bat 100%.

I kinda liked Devin last year (Vic's rookie year), his most efficient season so far and he seemed to keep things a little simpler. Early on he kinda looked off Wemby a bit much for my liking but Wemby was an inefficient chucker those first 2 months so I kind of understood. Once it became obvious Wemby was the 1st option and Vassell was the 2nd option he fell in line more.

This year has clearly been a massive disappointment. Devin has 2 jobs in my view, get buckets and play average defense. He has sucked at both and his surgery is getting further and further in the rear view and can't be blamed at this point.

[ambchang]

I get what you are saying, but neither Keldon, Vassell or Sochan showed anywhere near this kind of promise (Castle, after all, is the favorite to win ROTY, whereas none of those guys even earned All Rookie 2nd Team honors), and Wemby was in the Top 5 of the MVP Ladder this year for a pretty decent stretch before Sneezes and Blot Clots took over.

Oh no doubt castle has shown more than keldon Vassell and sochan in their respective rookie years, I’m just worried about the trajectories. If castle has the same trajectory in his first 3 to 5 years like keldon, Vassell (actually regressed) or sochan did/are doing, we are talking about a borderline starter level player on a good team, which would be a disappointment as he seems to have the toolset to be an all star caliber player.

As for wemby, I remembered he started slow in November, then had a good stretch in December like he was going on a tear, then once the calendar flips to 2025 he fell off a cliff. I’d say he played like a top 5 in one month of the season, even before the blood clots he seemed to be struggling (by his standards). Perhaps I was being unrealistic but I was expecting him to play like December wemby throughout, aside from DVT. January and large parts of February seems more like Deep Mitch/Pop thrombosis.

[scott]

Oh no doubt castle has shown more than keldon Vassell and sochan in their respective rookie years, I’m just worried about the trajectories. If castle has the same trajectory in his first 3 to 5 years like keldon, Vassell (actually regressed) or sochan did/are doing, we are talking about a borderline starter level player on a good team, which would be a disappointment as he seems to have the toolset to be an all star caliber player.

As for wemby, I remembered he started slow in November, then had a good stretch in December like he was going on a tear, then once the calendar flips to 2025 he fell off a cliff. I’d say he played like a top 5 in one month of the season, even before the blood clots he seemed to be struggling (by his standards). Perhaps I was being unrealistic but I was expecting him to play like December wemby throughout, aside from DVT. January and large parts of February seems more like Deep Mitch/Pop thrombosis.

I'm with you on the concerns about development. Hopefully the FO recognizes this and makes changes to the development staff this offseason (ideally a whole new staff altogether, tbh). It's definitely a concern.

Re: Wemby, January he was clearly suffering from the allergies/flu/whatever... this is also something that definitely needs to be addressed. Every allergist in San Antonio should be working on this honestly

[spurraider21]

^ Derrick at 29 was also another great development story even excluding all the great stuff he's done in Boston. Lonnie had that one good playoff game for the Lakers, but really also played his best ball here. That dude was always going to be limited though, and his post-Spurs career shows that.

derrick was solid here but blew up once he left

[lefty20]

derrick was solid here but blew up once he left

Different expectations, imo.

We expected him to be option 1 or 2 on a nightly basis. Bro was good, but not that good.

Celtics expect him to be option 3-5 on a nightly basis. It's a perfect situation for him.

[John B]

derrick was solid here but blew up once he left

Better talent around will get him open, better shooter to pass, etc. Nothing different with the Big 3 making Diaw resurrected his career once he got to the Spurs. I’m hoping Wemby, Fox and probably Castle would help improve the skills of everyone

[CGD]

I still miss Derrick, and am happy he was able to level up. He’s about all the right stuff.

[scott]

Different expectations, imo.

We expected him to be option 1 or 2 on a nightly basis. Bro was good, but not that good.

Celtics expect him to be option 3-5 on a nightly basis. It's a perfect situation for him.

Did we?

The year he was traded, DJM and Keldon were the first and second option.

The season before that, Demar was clearly the #1 option and Derrick only played 36 games and DJM was the second option.

Before that it was still Demar and LMA.

I can't think of a time where Derrick was realistically expected to be the 1st or 2nd option on this team.