The play-in race

[LeBowen]

Latest comments from Mitch and the players made it obvious we're done with tanking and will try to make the playoffs this year.
To get there, we need to get to the play-in first.



Unpredictable season so far, most supposed contenders aren't where they expected to be.
Spurs have played the least games and have just 1 more loss than #8 Mavs. Obviously those extra games have to be won, but schedule from now on isn't that bad.



Last season #10 seed Warriors had 46 wins, I don't think we can go 24-10 the rest of the way, 20 wins should be the minimum.
Hopefully we can get 22, could be enough to make the play-in.



Out of all the play-in compe ors, Spurs have the easiest schedule on paper, realistically it's just Mavs and Suns with a more difficult schedule than Spurs/Warriors/Kings/Minnesota that are all within .01 of each other.
It's also worth to mention that Spurs played the least home games of his bunch.
Hopefully we can go on a run (5 winstreak anyone?) after RRT and gain some serious momentum.

We'll see how the deadline goes, but right now it feels like Spurs have the most positive atmosphere out of any of these teams.
Clippers are coming back to their expected level, they'll need nephew to step up.
Timberwolves are having a disappointing and are somewhat treadmilling, but they're the best team out of this bunch.
Mavs are a dumpster fire and despite their roster's quality on paper, it will be one of the most toxic envorinments in NBA history and they could completely crumble. We'll need to win both of our March matchups against them.
Kings are Kings, able to beat anyone or lose in even worse fashion.
Suns look to be in the worst shape, failed to make singificant moves and they don't look like they care.
Warriors made a lateral move that will bring a positive shock, but that's a roster on life support.

Spurs need to have a better record than 2 of these 6 teams in order to make the play-in.
Is it doable? Obviously. Will we be able to pull it off with Mitch at the helm? I'm not sure.

[z0sa]

It's going to be tough, and it feels too early to call because of the GSW and Mavs trades. Mavs especially are essentially a new basketball team in terms of philosophy, which could either bode well (if AD can be relatively healthy) or drop them out of the play-in picture altogether if they are unable to make the new lineups cohesive.

Of the teams making big trades that are play-in level (IE not Lakers), Spurs definitely have the most form-fitting move. I see us climbing, the Kings falling, the Suns continuing to treadmill and the jury still being out for a while on Mavs and Warriors. My gut says we make it based on strength of schedule, but the variables are still too many for my brain to make a definitive prediction.

That 2nd to last game vs Phoenix could be momentous.

[RC_Drunkford]

Would be nice to make the playoffs and play the Rockets in the first round. That‘s a team where we could make the series compe ive.

[Amuseddaysleeper]

We need to stop choking big leads gonna be very tough to make it unless we close our games better. Hard to trust the outside shooting with this team

[Arguendo]

Definitely going to be tough, this next 10 game stretch will probably determine it. Spurs have 4 games they absolutely should win (Char, NO 2x, Wash), 3 maybe toss-ups (Orl, Phx, Det), 3 tough wins on the road (Bos, Hou, Mem). Very possible they go 7-3 and are sitting at 29-29 with 24 to play, 7+ of those against the worst teams in the league and 9 against teams currently right around .500, but Dallas/GS/Orl should play better moving forward than they've played so far.

Opening night, I thought it'd take 45+ wins for play-in, now 43 seems likely, 41 possible because none of the top 12 teams in West are tanking, GS/SA/LA just got a lot stronger and Dallas will play better with AD than w/o Luka the past 6 wks.

I'm hopeful not just because the schedule, but because the Spurs have collapsed in 3/4 quarter several times games since starting 18-16 (Den +11 OT, Bulls +17 4th q, Mem +26 & + 40 2nd halves) plus games against Mia and LAC that Fox would've impacted. Like, we definitely lose last night w/o Fox as Wemby was about to collapse from exhaustion.

At this point I think 19-15 finish is reasonable, get to .500 and compete for play-in. There's 11 games we should win on paper, about 13 toss-ups where we'll often have 2 of the 3 best players on the court, and about 10 tough games. But we get Hou and Mem after having Fox for 3+ weeks, so those look more winnable.

And if Fox lifts Vassell and Co the way it looked last night 21 wins is very possible and 43 wins very likely gets us in the play-in.

[Mr. Body]

Compete as hard as you can, try to get to 500, and get to the play in if possible. I won't cry if not, the future is getting set.

[Arguendo]

Also, Spurs are now a very attractive FA destination for buy-out guys, especially compared to last week.
I decent C or stretch big get cuts, this may look like a great situation to step into. If not for this season, then for next. Get your role on a future contender with need before someone else takes that role.

[scott]

Live look inside of the Spurs locker room

[Spurminator]

It's hard to see us outperforming many of those teams above us, barring a significant injury to a top player.

Sac got slightly worse IMO, and you'd have to hope the Dallas trade turns into a disaster. Maybe PHX trades Durant and they drop out.

I just want to be in the hunt and playing meaningful games in March. Making the play-in would be gravy.

[Splits]

[ffadicted]

God the west is in stacked. People hate on Butler but man got his bag and he always shows up big in important games when he's paid.
Same with AD, obviously worst trade of all time but it won't make them worse immediately to miss the playoffs.

Even if the Suns implode and the Fox/Lavine trade goes terribly for the kings, we still need to outperform two of a Butler/Steph golden state, an AD/Kyrie mavs, or the very solid Timberwolves team. Even Portland is going ham right now.

If I was a betting man I wouldn't throw down on our chances, but god I'll watch every game praying. I'd love for Vic to get a small taste of playoff basketball this early in his career.

[Arguendo]

It's hard to see us outperforming many of those teams above us, barring a significant injury to a top player.

Sac got slightly worse IMO, and you'd have to hope the Dallas trade turns into a disaster. Maybe PHX trades Durant and they drop out.

I just want to be in the hunt and playing meaningful games in March. Making the play-in would be gravy.

We are only 1 game back in loss column, I can definitely see us outperforming the Kings. Could totally see Suns losing interest and dropping a couple games they shouldn't.
AD is due for a injury and Mav's went into a tail-spin after getting Kyrie (but obvi very different double PG situ), and Draymond and Butler has a fight schedule just TBD on date.

Spurs take the next 3 against Cha, Orl, and Was and its a 5-team battle for 3 spots, with 4 teams integrating new All-Stars (Kings with no PG) and a potentially unhappy 36y/o KD whose not realistically playing for anything this yr and may be due an injury himself.
Spurs, Mavs, GS with be very motivated and have something to prove, not sure the Kings and Suns will be particularly motivated.

This is gonna be fun, but we need that 4-game win streak to kick it off.

[Arguendo]

People hate on Butler but man got his bag and he always shows up big in important games when he's paid.
Same with AD, obviously worst trade of all time but it won't make them worse immediately to miss the playoffs.

Even if the Suns implode and the Fox/Lavine trade goes terribly for the kings, we still need to outperform two of a Butler/Steph golden state, an AD/Kyrie mavs, or the very solid Timberwolves team. Even Portland is going ham right now.

I think Butler will fit very nicely in GS if him and Draymond don't turn toxic, but I think they'll have a shared goal.
But if the Suns and Kings implode, for just play under .500 from here, we have a great chance. We're only 1 loss back, just can't lose any winnable games.
We don't need 3 teams to fall, just 2 or only 1 if GS doesn't turn it around.

Also, Kings just added Jake LaRavia, he should help their spacing and so that's not ideal

[rascal]

I expect the Spurs to make the play-In barring an injury to Wemby or Fox.

[thOOdee]

I'm willing to bet 18-20 wins will do it. I can't see suns, warriors, kings safely winning close to around 22 games.

[couchman]

Kings and Suns are dropping.
Spurs and Warriors (and Blazers!?!!) are ascending.

There’s a clear path to the play-in.

[skin27]

Kings and Suns are dropping.
Spurs and Warriors (and Blazers!?!!) are ascending.

There’s a clear path to the play-in.

suns didnt lose durant so they’re not going to drop drastically.

[Knoxxx]

Fox is injured already and when did league rules allow teams to admit they are losing on purpose?

[spursistan]

Nice breakdown LeBowen . I think the Spurs will probably fall short at the end for two reasons:


(a) Too many dumb losses on the board (Jazz at home. Really? 26 point choke at Clippers and, most costly, going 0-4 against the royally mediocre Chicago & Miami. Can’t expect to make up those 4 winnable games against tougher Western Conf teams)


(b) The Spurs were simply unlucky to not face a bunch of teams when they had their star players out injured for extended period of time while our direct compe ion did and benefited multiple times in the win-loss column as a result (Magic, Dallas, Philly in particular)


It is still doable, but it will a require a winning-streak of some sort (= or > 6 games) along the way—something this team hasn’t done in ages.

[skin27]

Nice breakdown LeBowen . I think the Spurs will probably fall short at the end for two reasons:


(a) Too many dumb losses on the board (Jazz at home. Really? 26 point choke at Clippers and, most costly, going 0-4 against the royally mediocre Chicago & Miami. Can’t expect to make up those 4 winnable games against tougher Western Conf teams)


(b) The Spurs were simply unlucky to not face a bunch of teams when they had their star players out injured for extended period of time while our direct compe ion did and benefited multiple times in the win-loss column as a result (Magic, Dallas, Philly in particular)


It is still doable, but it will a require a winning-streak of some sort (= or > 6 games) along the way—something this team hasn’t done in ages.

agree, like i said so many times we need atleast 5 game winning streak to make the playoffs. Sometimes this team just play dumb aginst mediocre teams lose a winnable game.Let see how it goes with fox in the lineup.

[100%duncan]

Wouldn't it be funny if those 2 chicago losses came back to bite us in the ass? This is a close a race as it gets. As many other have mentioned, there are the must win games against bad and very bad teams that we simply cannot afford to fumble. The good thing is that the games against the better teams are mostly after the ASB. Hopefully this gives the team more time to gel, get their reps in etc.

[RC_Drunkford]

the bad thing is we are starting Fox and CP3. And we still don't have a back up center.

[Arguendo]

Mo Bamba to the resuce!

[spursistan]

Kings L Warriors L


26 in the loss column. Same as the Spurs. It is definitely time to make our play-in push here.

[skin27]

When did the last time this team goes on a 5 game winning streak? 2019-2020 or 2020-2021 season? Lmao