Real CitiesWASHINGTON — Republican Senate candidates have fought back to regain an edge in two key races, pivotal battlegrounds that could determine which party controls the Senate, according to a series of new McClatchy-MSNBC polls.
Republicans hold narrow leads in Tennessee and Virginia, two must-win states where the party hopes to build a Southern bulwark against a Democratic tide that's threatening their Senate seats elsewhere across the country.
The new polls show Democrats leading in two states they must hold - New Jersey and Washington - as well as in five states now held by Republicans: Missouri, Montana, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Rhode Island.
Yet even if Democrats take all seven of those, they still need to win either Tennessee or Virginia to take control of the Senate. Democrats must gain six seats overall to take a majority.
"Control of the Senate is going to come down to Tennessee and Virginia,'' said Brad Coker, the pollster for Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc. who conducted the surveys for McClatchy-MSNBC in eight states, as well as one in Virginia for several major newspapers there.
Mecaca is going down, but it still will be difficult for Demos to take the Senate because large, rural areas, typically republican strong-holds, are over-represented in the Senate where a state like N. Dakota has as many votes as NY.
The Demos hopes lie in the House.
I really don't think democrats will take the senate. With two weeks left I see the republicans getting their message out to their base to get out and vote and I wouldn't be surprised if the republicans keep control of the house too.
All the polls don't mean anything on election day.
It'll be interesting to see if there is any backlash from the racially tinged ad the RNC ran against Ford in Tennessee that even his Republican opponent Bob Corker denounced.
The Times/Bloomberg polls found that among likely voters:
LA TimesIn Ohio, the Democratic challenger, Rep. Sherrod Brown, led Republican Sen. Mike DeWine, 47% to 39%.
In New Jersey, Democratic Sen. Robert Menendez held a 45%-41% edge over his GOP challenger, Tom Kean Jr.
In Virginia, Democrat Jim Webb led Republican Sen. George Allen, 47% to 44%.
In Missouri, Republican Sen. Jim Talent was ahead of Democrat Claire McCaskill, 48% to 45%.
In Tennessee, Republican Bob Corker — the former mayor of Chattanooga — led Democratic Rep. Harold E. Ford Jr., 49% to 44%, in the race for the seat being vacated by Republican Sen. Bill Frist.
The polls, supervised by Times Polling Director Susan Pinkus, were conducted Friday through Monday. They have a margin of error of plus or minus four percentage points in Ohio, Missouri and Tennessee, five percentage points in Virginia and 5.5 points in New Jersey.
The Times/Bloomberg poll results are generally in line with other recent surveys. In Virginia, however, this is the first major poll to show Webb leading Allen.
I don't think democrats should be so confident.
You mean backlash against Ford? I've been to Tennessee (25 years ago, but things don't change that quickly). I certainly don't see how racism could hurt the Republican candidate; the Republicans have been winning elections by appealing to the racism of their base for half a century now.
I saw the ad on MSNBC.
Now the ad has a white woman saying "I saw him at the playboy mansion" and "Ford, call me"
Ok, im too dense to understand, could someone explain the reason this ad is deemed racist?
Why is it anti-Ford? Single guy at the Playboy mansion? More power to him.
No, against Corker.You mean backlash against Ford?It plays to the element of the electorate that might be moved by the thought of race mixing.I saw the ad on MSNBC.
Now the ad has a white woman saying "I saw him at the playboy mansion" and "Ford, call me"
Ok, im too dense to understand, could someone explain the reason this ad is deemed racist?
Ironically North Dakota is represented by two Democrats. A couple of real salt of the earth kind of guys.
Harold Ford would be great for Tennessee. He is a bit conservative for me but I would love to have him take Frist's seat.
The Senate remains a long shot as the Dems pretty much have to sweep Rhode Island, Montana, Ohio, Missouri and Pennsylvania; and then have to win one of Tennessee or Viriginia which are long shots.
They also have to hang onto New Jersey and don't forget Connecticut. They need to hang onto that seat because if Judas Lieberman wins he will screw the Dems faster than Aggie Hoops Fan running from a military recruiter.
Interesting comment on the new GOP Ford ad:
GOP’S NEW AD CAMPAIGN: HAVE YOU 'RIDDEN' A FORD, LATELY?
LinkWho says the Republican party doesn’t believe in evolution? Just look at how far they’ve evolved since 1988, from Bush pere, to Bush rear.
Ya’ see, even the know-nothings know enough to avoid resurrecting the specter of Willie Horton, the dark-skinned black rapist who was a major part of the senior Bush’s Lee A er-inspired scare campaign against Dukakis.
Now, the Republican National Committee has endorsed ads in the Tennessee Senate race suggesting that a light-skinned black man — Democrat Harold Ford, Jr. – is merely dating white women. In the offending ad, an actress says she met Ford at a “Playboy party” and later winks and says, “Harold, call me.”
So I guess the dream of the Rev. Martin Luther king, Jr. has finally been realized.
When It Comes to Politics, Charlie Cook Has the Prophecy Market Cornered
By Dana Milbank
Wednesday, October 25, 2006; A02
Washington PostPlease tell us, Seer of Future Congresses, how many seats the Democrats will pick up in the House on Election Day.
"Twenty to 35," Cook answers.
And how about in the Senate, O Prophet on the Potomac?
"At least four," the man with the crystal ball says. "Most likely five or six."
What fate does the seer see for Sen. George Allen (R-Va.)?
"He wins ugly, but he wins," Cook divines.
And, pray tell, how are the planets aligning for Rep. Curt Weldon (R-Pa.)?
"Gone," he decrees.
All are looking for the same thing: next month's election returns. And Cook has them. "Senators Santorum in Pennsylvania and Mike DeWine in Ohio are pretty much done," he told the Piper audience at the Willard hotel. And the lifelines of Sens. Conrad Burns (R-Mont.) and Lincoln Chafee (R-R.I.) aren't looking any longer. "I'd be surprised if any of those four can survive," Cook informed the crowd of lobbyists, diplomats and journalists.
He commissions his own poll, and his column appears once a week in the National Journal. A Nexis search finds 873 mentions in the past 60 days for him and his company, the Cook Political Report.
And while he's not always on the mark (he admits to having "tread marks on my forehead" after understating the Republican gains in '94) he's close enough that nobody challenges his forecasts. "I'm not as much of an expert as he is, so I have to defer to him," said Gephardt, a former House Democratic leader, after Cook's talk to the Piper firm.
Cook gave the same speech about Frankenstein and hurricanes, then offered some presidential prognostication for dessert. "I would give McCain a 60, 65 percent chance of winning the Republican nomination," he disclosed. By contrast, he added, "I'll win the Tour de France before Rudy Giuliani wins the Republican nomination."
The oracle hopped into a waiting sedan to catch his flight to Boston. The car ride gave him the first chance in hours to check his BlackBerry -- and to make some last-minute revisions to his prophecies. "Montana closing more than thought," he typed in an e-mail to a reporter. "Burns might not be dead yet."
The Senate coming down to Tennessee/Jesusland....good luck guys. And as much as I would like a change in leadership, it is only because of Corkers partisan that I can even support Ford. He is a sick joke.
**BUMP**
2020 Senate
A 14-year bump, Basilio? Really?
TheGreatYacht
Chumpettes are always bean counting like this.
It's what their corporate overlords taught them to do first and foremost.
There are currently 1 users browsing this thread. (0 members and 1 guests)
Posting Permissions
Reply With Quote
