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He'll fall because scouts feel he doesn't have the athleticism to guard 3s or the strength to guard 4/5. I personally think he'd be a great pickup, but I don't think the Spurs snag him with the first pick...SF is the priority.
Sorry Sabar, there are some really good picks in that list. I've highlighted them...
Agree with Mr. Body that while recruiting is ultimately an unknown, there are telling factors and measurables that lessen the risk. It's not a total crapshoot.
He'll fall because scouts feel he doesn't have the athleticism to guard 3s or the strength to guard 4/5. I personally think he'd be a great pickup, but I don't think the Spurs snag him with the first pick...SF is the priority.
Most != all
Looks like both lists show a less than 1/3 success rate.
Swell.
It's really amazing how misses there are in the draft. Despite huge amounts being spent drafting etc.
Everybody talks about the 2003 draft- it was incredible- maybe 3 possible hall of famers maybe more- and look at Barbosa and Josh Howard who fell to the 28th and 29th spot!
But look at the draft critticaly and you'll see a fair number of screwups in the first round.
I agree it's a little unfair to critisize the Spurs on a miss here and there. Granted since 03 they haven't come up with much. In defense it looks like they have learned from their mistakes.
They probably should have taken Lee over Ian- but take a look at who was drafted ahead of the Spurs- a fair number of players who may never amount to much.
Round 1
# Team Name College/HS/Country
1 MIL Andrew Bogut Utah
2 ATL Marvin Williams North Carolina
3 UTA Deron Williams Illinois
4 NOH Chris Paul Wake Forest
5 CHA Raymond Felton North Carolina
6 POR Martell Webster Seattle Prep
7 TOR Charlie Villanueva Connecticut
8 NYK Channing Frye Arizona
9 GSW Ike Diogu Arizona State
10 LAL Andrew Bynum St. Joseph High School
11 ORL Fran Vasquez Spain
12 LAC Yaroslav Korolev Russia
13 CHA Sean May North Carolina
14 MIN Rashad McCants North Carolina
15 NJN Antoine Wright Texas A & M
16 TOR Joey Graham Oklahoma State
17 IND Danny Granger New Mexico
18 BOS Gerald Green Gulf Shores Academy
19 MEM Hakim Warrick Syracuse
20 DEN Julius Hodge NC State
21 PHO Nate Robinson Washington
22 DEN Jarrett Jack Georgia Tech
23 SAC Francisco Garcia Louisville
24 HOU Luther Head Illinois
25 SEA Johan Petro France
26 DET Jason Maxiell Cincinnati
27 POR Linas Kleiza Missouri
28 SAS Ian Mahinmi France
29 MIA Wayne Simien Kansas
30 NYK David Lee Florida
What hurts as much as anything is that the Spurs' reluctance to hang on to and use their late draft picks wound up immeasurably enriching their current two biggest rivals: Phoenix, by giving them Leandro Barbosa, and Dallas, with Josh Howard.
Yes, everyone knew they were going to be so good they fell to the end of the first round.
lol, the Spurs themselves think they needed to improve domestic scouting, what is so hard to understand about how that relates?
They themselves think they could do better than they have. They aren't paying someone to be DCPP when they could have just counted on another intern putting together a 5-minute highlight video in-house again just for the of it.
They're trying the best they can to win more les, not just throw their hands in the air and say, "Oh well! Not every draft can be successful! Look at how few good players there are! Such a crap shoot. Let's just draft another guy that we don't even what he looks like."
Dallas and Phoenix were smart enough to want them.
Decent players fall on draft day for a myriad of reasons:
1. They lack "upside"
2. They are too short, skinny, slow, or fat
3. They have bad at ude/poor work ethic
4. GM Stupidity (my favorite)
Guys like Parker and Arenas don't come around every day, but the Spurs can hope to find one or two contributors if they scout well enough....
Yeah. Most everything points to the Spurs themselves recognizing a problem with their strategy and looking for a change. There are people here claiming - if only by inertia - that the Spurs will do what they've always done, which is draft foreign and stash them overseas. I don't see the team doing that this year. The need for fresh talent is too dire, which thankfully corresponds with what should be a deep draft. Even if they wind up being nothing, you'll probably find some decent SF prospects with the Milwaukee pick, even, such as Nichols from Syracuse or Dudley or Byers. Regardless, it is absolutely imperative the Spurs get a good rookie out of this draft, and they know it.
And? Was that the prediction back then?
I agree the slash and burn for cap space was wrong, but nobody thought those players would be that good and it's ridiculous that people bring them up every day on this board like they discovered plutonium. Get over it.
Did you tell everyone here to stop bit#hing about the Howard pick and then defend the Spurs not drafting him?
If you want total suck just look at the 2006 NBA Draft.
There's really only so much scouts can do.
Tim Duncan thought Howard would be good. And then over the years Pop has declared that he wanted Howard back then also.
the 06 class is indeed quite poor.
Plutonium!
see: Darko Milicic
Who cares about the stupid predictions? What, Chad Ford didn't think Barbosa was going to be dynamite off the bench? Some SI idiot didn't realize Howard was going to be an All-Star within 3 years? Who cares what they think? I'm sure Phx and Dallas are surprised and happy they've turned out to be as good as they are, but they did think they would be good. And they were right. And it's demonstrably affected their relationship vis-a-vis the Spurs. No Josh Howard, no Mavs victory over the Spurs. He absolutely kills us. Trying to sweep all this under the carpet is stupid. Should we not relive past failures? Well, we can, if we want to.
Other than that, your argument seems to be: late first round picks tend to flame out, therefore we should not bother using them. Yet demonstrably this is not the case. There is ALWAYS a gaggle of players still left who impact the league. That the #28 pick doesn't always pan out is the fault of team's lousy scouting and reliance on finger crossing far more than it's the fault of the #28 pick itself.
Teams don't draft blindly; they have rosters of players they like and wait to see if they're available where they pick. If that team picks one of their guys with their late pick and that guy winds up sucking, that's their own damn fault. It doesn't mean it's impossible or unlikely. It means that you need better scouting. The Spurs have exclusively relied on foreign R&D, essentially. They need (and have started) to also have a domestic R&D department.
But the 07 class should not be. Scouts were going into the 06 draft saying that a weak draft class had gotten weaker with the 1yr of college rule for the Odens and Durants of the world.
07 is supposedly stacked, though we'll have to see who actually declares.
Really bad. We were excited to get a late-first round type talent out of it and that guy turned out to be James White.
At least he has a 5% chance of becoming anything, but damn was that a lousy year. Even the guys I held hope for trading up to get have turned out fairly crappy so far (Ronnie Brewer, even Rodney Carney... although who I really liked was Sefalosha).
Fortunately this year's draft looks much better.
Wrong. My argument is most folks put way too much importance on late first rounders and second rounders, when even the best scouting results in less than a 33% success rate.your argument seems to be: late first round picks tend to flame out, therefore we should not bother using them.
So we shouldn't talk about the draft?
Overrate it all you want.
And claim we shouldn't care about it all you want.
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