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You don't plan on living more than another 10 years or so?
So, I did a bit of number crunching using past results.
My projection for November, using early vote totals for governor as a proxy was:
1,000,000 votes for Democrats
1,400,000 votes for Republicans
... in the state wide races.
Which, oddly enough, got really close to the final primary totals, with most precincts reporting in.
More people will vote in the fall.
Democrats will almost certainly narrow that 400,000 difference. Trump will continue to alienate Republicans and independents, and that will keep Republicans from being overly enthusiastic. They will still vote in larger numbers than past elections, but have less room to get more people in, given their already high participation percentages.
Democrats will get to see a huge e in enthusiasm, because we are running in a LOT of races in a LOT of places. Most of those candidates WILL lose, but Dems will pick up seats around the edges.
What will happen though, is that these races will draw out a LOT of Democrats to vote against Republicans, and a lot of moderate Republicans that are being on by their party will finally rebel against Trump.
That latter part is key. That introduces a +1/-1 scenario where that switch leads to a TWO vote swing. Getting more Democrats to show up is one thing, but the GOP losing moderates will be a death knell, if that happens.
To be clear: too early to say that will happen, and I view it as only a modest factor.
We have a 42/58 split in Texas currently, using the primaries as a rough guide. My sense is that will narrow in the fall, simply due to Democratic turn out being still higher, especially after months of real campaigning.
Republicans get to keep the statewide offices for now. 2020 is another matter. Two more years of disasterous Trump policies will bring about the collapse of the GOP as a national party. There is a very good chance, that the GOP will lose statewide Texas in 2020, with Texas going blue for the first time in decades. Trump will almost certainly be the last Republican president in my lifetime.
You don't plan on living more than another 10 years or so?
Cmon now
hahahaha - maybe he thinks people will always stay the same/won't want change.
Rafael "Ted" Krazy Kristian Kruz attacked Beto for having a nickname
Then withdrew his attack
No way in that a Republican wins 2020.
After that, Texas finally goes blue/purple. Do the electoral math. California + New York + Texas = 41% of required electoral college votes for president.
I forget how many more new Democratic voters start entering the picture each year, but the trends are not going to favor Republicans, EVER after Trump's racist regime passes into history. People remember that .
Bookmarking
UPDATE (7/11/13): Potter, the state demographer, clarified that 2023 is a conservative estimate for when the Hispanic population will become larger than the non-White Hispanic population. That estimate doesn't account for migration into the state. Other estimates predict the switch could occur as early as 2017, he said.
https://www.npr.org/sections/itsallp...ed-in-2-charts
Brookings analysis a few years ago lays it out, pay attention to scenario C:
https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content...2016report.pdf
It doesn't have Texas red, but Trump has changed the calculus, IMO, and accelerated the rise of the Democratic party in Texas. We will vote, and vote more often. No going back.
Oh, I will call it now. Easy. The magic man in the sky wills it, right?Bookmarking
Texas going purple by 2020 is already a of a stretch, and your electoral math depends on it being blue. You have been talking about Texas turning blue since 2008 man and it's still as red as ever. Even if the demographic wave happens you're acting like the Koch brothers won't force the GOP to adjust?No way in that a Republican wins 2020.
After that, Texas finally goes blue/purple. Do the electoral math. California + New York + Texas = 41% of required electoral college votes for president.
I forget how many more new Democratic voters start entering the picture each year, but the trends are not going to favor Republicans, EVER after Trump's racist regime passes into history. People remember that .
“The long-term challenge for Republicans remains unchanged: They still have to figure out how to appeal to the growing proportion of the electorate that is non- white and college-educated,” said GOP pollster Whit Ayres, who worked during the Republican primaries for Trump rival Marco Rubio, the Florida senator. “Trump managed to slip the punch for one election, but that changed nothing about the long-term challenge. For the Democrats … they have to [find] a substantive message that appeals beyond iden y politics, and they haven’t figured that out yet.”
https://www.theatlantic.com/politics...ection/528519/
Even so, blue-collar whites’ continued decline in the electorate, including in the states where they are most critical, reaffirms the concerns of Trump’s GOP critics that he is defining the party in a manner that wins over those voters at too high a price: the alienation of white-collar whites and minorities, two groups that are growing in number. “Nothing has repealed the long-term demographic trends in the electorate,” Ayres said. “What Trump did was lock us more completely into a declining portion of the electorate at the cost of an increasing portion of the electorate.”
double down with the religion smackOh, I will call it now. Easy. The magic man in the sky wills it, right?
Demographic trends do not happen overnight. They are slow moving waves.
I have been saying it since 2008, yes, because that is what *is* happening. The only question is when. We have a lot more data since then and as more data comes in, we get better at seeing that trend.
I give Texas a 50/50 chance of going blue, for president at least, in 2020 for the sole reason that Trump has pissed us off, we have finally gotten off our asses, and are getting out there to do the kinds of hard work needed, and each and every election after that, the Democrats chances get better and better.
Trump is that black swan event that changes underlying factors.
We will get to see. The analysis that I have read makes each new presidential cycle harder and harder for the GOP, unless something underlying changes. Feel free to point out what you think that is.
Hispanics are not like blacks they are not just going to vote Democrat the rest of their lives. If someone like Rubio but more charismatic runs and stresses a new inclusive GOP they could easily switch up and get 50-60% of Hispanic vote of they needed to. W. nearly drove this country into another depression and people were back voting Republican in the congressional races like 2 years later despite being despised to like a 15% approval when he left office
A 50/50 shot of Texas going blue in two and a half years is nuts man. As much as we hate Trump, that's how much his voters adore him here. Every Never Trump Republican I knew during the primary now loves the guy and defends him to the death, just like we see on this forum now. Curious what you think Beto's chances are of unseating Cruz.
Distant. It will be close enough to scare the jeepers out of the s running the GOP though. Trump changes things. It will be interesting to find out.
Sadly I have to agree with this rare quality take from AaronY.
(shrugs)
We'll see. I think you are right about that to some degree, but you miss out on how young this wave is.
A lot of runnoffs in the dems side. Too many of them running.
Only Beto was able to eclipsed the 50% threshold. The rest are in a runoff.
Nice strawman, fattie. I know you need to dumb things down to such binary analysis but making such strawmen only speaks to your limitations.
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