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we all know youre in ginobilis corner, yall have to be for globalization reasons
After the Spurs got eliminated from the playoffs in April for the first time in a dozen years, I took the opportunity to go on vacation for the month of May. That month turned into seven weeks.
I went into the vacation wanting to cut myself off from all things Spurs. While my curiosity to check SpursTalk from time to time got the best of me, it was a great opportunity to "fill the cup", as Pop would say.
During the vacation, I did a lot of fishing, hiking and more fishing. Even the Lakers championship couldn't spoil my tranquility.
As I attempted to become one with nature, I spent a lot of time thinking about what the Spurs need to do to squeeze in championship number five before the Tim Duncan Window slams shut. However, prior to looking ahead, I want to take time to look at what went wrong for the 2008-09 San Antonio Spurs.
By the final buzzer of Game 5, the shortcomings of the team were obvious. But how did the Spurs get to that point? I believe it was a combination of three aspects.
I. Injuries
Most objective Spurs fans knew that San Antonio's playoff hopes were doomed from the start. Injuries had all but officially ended the season prior to the postseason. There was a tiny, tiny flicker of hope, in theory. But even saying the Spurs had a 1% chance to win the championship prior to the playoffs probably was a bit optimistic in hindsight.
A. Manu Ginobili
When all was said and done in the 2008-09 campaign, Ginobili had played in 44 games and missed 43 games. As it turned out, the stress fracture that ended his season also ended the season for the Spurs.
The controversy surrounding his injury woes goes back to the 2008 Beijing Olympics. Did Ginobili suiting up for Argentina and subsequently getting injured lead to his injury ravaged season? First of all, we'll never know conclusively one way or the other. It's just an impossibility to say for sure.
That said, I do think his injuries were connected. Ginobili was forced to try to go from 0 to 60 after missing all of training camp and the preseason. While he eventually found his rhythm, he never really looked overly comfortable on the court. His gait appeared to be odd, which could have contributed to the stress reaction and the resulting stress fracture.
But maybe his injuries aren't connected. Perhaps he just had an unlucky season. Either way, I'm 100% still in Ginobili's corner. Expecting him to skip the Olympics is lunacy. I would have done the exact same thing. Anyone with any type of compe ive pulse would have done the same thing.
B. Tim Duncan
Entering the playoffs, there was the hope that Duncan would be able to flip the switch and rise above his pair of sore knees. While he didn't exactly play poorly in the postseason, he wasn't the dominant Duncan we've come to know and expect.
Going back to the regular season, it was day and night when comparing a healthy Duncan and a hobbled Duncan. To begin the season, he was playing at an extremely high level. He was able to score efficiently, he elevated the play of those around him and his passing was better than ever. But then after his tendonosis, it's like he aged ten years overnight.
Did Duncan's knees tire from carrying the team on his back early in the season? Was it just another case of bad luck? Did we just witness the beginning of the end of the superstar Duncan?
I don't have the answer. Hopefully Duncan will be able to bounce back and play superstar level basketball for at least a couple more seasons. If not, that window may have already closed on number five.
C. Ian Mahinmi
It's blasphemy to even list Mahinmi with the two players above him in this section but he was the forgotten injury of the season. Pop said that he was going to play him 35 minutes per game in the preseason. If Mahinmi had shined in that role, the entire course of the season would have been altered.
Right now, nobody knows what the Spurs have in Mahinmi. He could be a poor man's Francisco Elson. He may be that athletic bigman who can provide the energy, shotblocking and intimidation this team desperately needs. Hopefully the Spurs will be able to figure out the truth this coming season.
II. Coaching Mistakes
As a coach, Pop is a gambler. He rarely goes with the road most traveled. As a result, he often either looks like a genius or he makes you scratch your head raw. There's rarely any middle ground when it comes to Pop's coaching.
In the past, he's rolled the dice and won. In the 1999 championship run, he invested in a pair of castoffs in Jaren Jackson and Malik Rose and that investment paid off tenfold by the time the Larry O'Brien was being raised. He 2003, he invested in Stephen Jackson and Speedy Claxton -- and won again. In 2005, he refused to give up on Robert Horry and Horry responded with amazing play. Sticking with a seemingly decrepit Horry once again paid off in 2007.
In the 2009 playoffs, virtually all of Pop's gambles blew up in his face. His investments resulted in a total loss. You can call it bad coaching. I think it's more of a gambling coach who rolled the dice and came up snake eyes.
What gambles went bad?
A. Trusting Matt Bonner
Watching Pop stick with Bonner was like watching a car wreck in slow motion. Bonner's tendency to be overwhelmed by pressure was a major red flag heading into the playoffs. As it turned out, Bonner's postseason play was even worse than anyone could have imagined.
It's somewhat easy to see what Pop was hoping. Starting Bonner spaced the court for the Spurs and gave Duncan room to operate. His shooting made him a quality pick-and-roll participant and his defense was underrated -- especially in terms of moving his feet on the perimeter. But all of those positive attributes on paper went limp when Bonner entered the reality of the playoffs and failed miserably.
Watching the Orlando Magic, you can sort of see what Pop was thinking. The Magic relied on one interior player surrounded by a team of shooters who can stretch the floor. With the new rules of the NBA, it's almost impossible to deny penetration. With penetration comes a sagging defense, which results in open shooters. That's where Bonner should have been valuable.
The result of relying on Bonner makes it look like a bad coaching move but I think the reasoning was somewhat sound.
B. Playing Roger Mason, Jr. at Point Guard
This had to be one of the more frustrating moves Pop made in the 2008-09 season. Out of the blue, Pop decided to try to stick Mason into the backup point guard position -- and stubbornly kept at it.
It never seemed to work in the regular season and worked even less in the postseason. Mason looked like a fish out of water who couldn't handle the ball well enough, pass well enough or create well enough to play point guard.
Why did Pop do it? I think the answers are many. First, he obviously thought George Hill wasn't ready for the limelight. Second, he wanted to provide the bench unit with more scoring. Third, and most important, he did it for Mason.
If you look at Mason's play, some of his best games early in the season came at point guard. He's a player who needs the ball to get into a groove and what better way to get the ball than to be point guard? You can even go back to his Wizards days and see he played best when at point guard. Mason himself even said that he enjoys playing point guard.
What happened? I'm not sure. My best guess is that teams adjusted to the fact that he almost always looked for the jumper off of the pick-and-roll. Once they took away his jumper and made him drive and create, Mason was taken out of his comfort zone.
Pop remained confident in Mason hoping he'd be able to readjust -- but that readjustment never came to fruition.
C. Banishing George Hill
Hill seemed to be having a relatively good rookie season. He had his ups and downs but overall Hill seemed to be an able member of the rotation. Pop apparently disagreed with that assessment and figured that Hill simply wasn't ready.
Pop probably had bad memories of Beno Udrih crash landing in the NBA Finals and almost costing the team a championship. With Mason showing to be a decent point guard and Hill still having room to grow, Pop decided to take Hill out of the direct sunlight coming down the stretch of the season.
In retrospect, the move appears to have been a mistake. When given a chance in the playoffs, Hill looked like he belonged in the rotation. Perhaps not as a point guard but at least somewhere out on the perimeter.
D. Believing in Michael Finley
By the end of the season, Finley was getting big minutes game in and game out. But I don't think that was Pop's plan from the beginning. Bruce Bowen began the year as the starting small forward. Pop then inserted Ime Udoka into the starting lineup at small forward but Udoka struggled mightily. Finley was the third and final answer at small forward.
In the regular season, he actually wasn't that bad. In fact, it may have been his best season as a member of the Spurs. But like Bonner, most Spurs fans saw the disastrous end before it played out on the court. Finley was just too old, too slow and too unathletic to compete when the going got tough in the postseason.
Pop seemed to be hoping for an Horry-esque miracle out of Finley. That never came, to say the least.
E. Giving Up on Bruce Bowen
This may have been the oddest gamble of them all by Pop. The coach who has drilled defense first, defense second and defense last decided to bench his defensive ace for basically the entire season? It is a decision I will never understand.
Predictably, Bowen was one of the team's lone bright spots when the playoffs rolled around -- on both ends of the court. He not only was the best perimeter defender, he was also the one shooter who didn't seem frightened by the stage.
If I had to guess, I'd say that Pop thought the Spurs needed more offense than Bowen could provide. As a result, Pop went with the home run in hoping Finley could turn back the clock instead of going with the ol' dependable with three championships to his name. It was surely a gamble -- and a bad one at that, in my opinion.
III. Lack of Talent
The truth in its rawest form is that even if the Spurs were healthy and even if Pop's gambles paid off, a championship still was likely unattainable due to a lack of talent. The roster has slowly eroded over the years thanks to limited money and limited quality draft picks to work with.
Could a team win a championship that relied on Bonner and Finley to play major roles? I just don't think so. For the Spurs to win a fifth championship, I believe that an increase in talent level is needed. There doesn't have to be sweeping changes but spots 4 through 12 on the roster need a bit of tweaking.
Overall, the 2008-09 will likely be remembered as a lost season. If the Spurs bounce back, history will remember it as an injury plagued season. If the Spurs don't bounce back, history will remember it as the first sign of slippage as the San Antonio slid into mediocrity.
Let's believe it will be the former and not the latter.
If you are still reading this, I'd like to thank you for being apart of the SpursTalk community. During the offseason, Kori and I have some plans to hopefully better the site. If you have any comments, questions or recommendations for the future of SpursTalk, feel free to email the website at spurstalk@gmail.com.
In the coming 48 hours, I hope to outline my beliefs of what the Spurs should do during this offseason to return to the top. I will also be writing the 9th annual Spurs draft cheat sheet in that time frame. (Speaking of the draft, I will be moving the draft threads into the main Spurs forum so that we can concentrate on the draft -- even though it does appear to be quite underwhelming, especially from San Antonio's perspective.)
Oh and I'll also now start replying to the email and private messages I ignored while on vacation. I apologize in advance for any late replies.
Thanks again.
we all know youre in ginobilis corner, yall have to be for globalization reasons
I agree with most of it, good stuff. Looking forward to the future.
IMO, the most important thing you noted was this: Even if fully healthy, the Spurs were not winning a le. All of the other stuff is trivial really (Injuries, coaching mistakes...). I think every fan, although hard to admit, knew this.
I think the coaches knew this and so did Tim, TP and Manu. So all of the other problems do not matter (injuries do obviously) relatively speaking. The Spurs need major upgrades to close the wide gap between them and the Lakers.
Who knows if it is possible within the Spurs system? But healthy or not, the Spurs cannot win unless they upgrade significantly.
Last edited by DPG21920; 06-22-2009 at 04:58 PM.
Well let's just hope they don't chalk it up as an injury plagued season and face reality. Our roster was one lid short of A trash can. Old and scrubby. Also i'd rather fail giving new players A chance and seeing what they bring than staying the course with guys that just wont cut it. Good thread by the way.
Nice thoughts...and I think that most reasonable fans agree completely with your assessment. This was a difficult year to watch because it was undoubtedly a "car wreck in slow motion." It was a strange year with strange decisions that led to exactly what most of us thought it would lead to. As of right now, I have full confidence that as long as the big three are healthy we have a chance. Hopefully the FO will be diligent in mapping out the rest of the roster with the right pieces...and when situations arise where one or more of those pieces are not effective they will make adjustments accordingly instead of watching the ship slowly take on water.
I do not think they will do that at all. I am not sure what they will be able to do in real terms to improve the team's situation (signing FA, trades, draft...), but I would highly doubt they think it was just a health issue last year.
Everyone knows it is a talent issue.
all this was pretty much obvious.
Thank you for your earth shaking contribution to this thread. I will probably never be the same after reading it.
very well written!
Awesome thread! Pretty much sums up my thoughts exactly. The thing that I was most disappointed about this season was the benching of George Hill. He provided much needed energy for the Spurs in the postseason. I am also looking foward to the play of Ian Mahinmi. I think that kid has some serious potential. Hopefully he works out. If not, its a damn shame.
This is a good analysis. However, to the point that talent needs upgrade, I'm afraid that Spurs would be operating under limited possibilities and options, thanks to the economy, their financial viability and lack of availability of disposable talent that could fetch something meaningful in return. This upcoming season very well could be hard for spurs in terms of managing expectations. Let us hope lady luck smiles on Spurs this time around.
Can't wait for the draft cheat sheet.
Timvp, let me ask you this, you think there might be any truth to what some of the posters
are saying as to the spurs possibly moving up in the draft?
Or would it be wise to use the draft to move some dead weight on draft night?(Bonner, Oberto, Finely)
Thanks for the overview, and welcome back. Gald you were able to take some time for yourself.
I think it helps to try to put it in perspective now that the initial shock of a first round exit has worn off. Seeing it all in one place is a little overwhelming. There's a lot that needs to be addressed for any shot at another le in the Duncan Era.
I hope they do everything they can to 'fix' things; even if they do there are still things, like injury, that are out of their control.
I don't think anything can be done to overcome Duncan being too hurt to play at a high level. It's the biggest concern for me, along with Manu. If they're healthy it makes everything else easier to deal with.
Great read timvp.
I was missing your thoughts. Read McDonald to know about the Spurs sucks.
FUN TO READ!
Thank you timvp for all you do!
As I recall, Bonner disappeared the moment Gooden came on board. I haven't been able to explain why. Maybe his confidence got raddled or something. After the Gooden signing, Bonner started missing those shots he usually made.A. Trusting Matt Bonner
Watching Pop stick with Bonner was like watching a car wreck in slow motion. Bonner's tendency to be overwhelmed by pressure was a major red flag heading into the playoffs. As it turned out, Bonner's postseason play was even worse than anyone could have imagined.
It's somewhat easy to see what Pop was hoping. Starting Bonner spaced the court for the Spurs and gave Duncan room to operate. His shooting made him a quality pick-and-roll participant and his defense was underrated -- especially in terms of moving his feet on the perimeter. But all of those positive attributes on paper went limp when Bonner entered the reality of the playoffs and failed miserably.
Watching the Orlando Magic, you can sort of see what Pop was thinking. The Magic relied on one interior player surrounded by a team of shooters who can stretch the floor. With the new rules of the NBA, it's almost impossible to deny penetration. With penetration comes a sagging defense, which results in open shooters. That's where Bonner should have been valuable.
The result of relying on Bonner makes it look like a bad coaching move but I think the reasoning was somewhat sound.
The truth in its rawest form is that even if the Spurs were healthy and even if Pop's gambles paid off, a championship still was likely unattainable due to a lack of talent. The roster has slowly eroded over the years thanks to limited money and limited quality draft picks to work with.
Great read. I agree with most of your points. The Bonner ship had its ups and downs this season but when it mattered the most he choked. I'm confident we would have made it to the WC Finals with a healthy team and Hill as backup point. I also thought Gooden should have been utilized more in the Mavs series. If I recall correctly he didn't play a single minute in the last game.
If healthy I think the Spurs could have made it to the WCF, but who cares, they would not have beat the Lakers.
The Mavs series was over before it started realistically (when Gino went down) and nothing Pop could have done would have made a significant difference imo. He still could have done many things better for sure, but it would not have changed the series enough to win.
Lets hope the Spurs can have a bit of luck and land a nice FA and make a nice trade or two. Hopefully, Ian can surprise and come in hungry and earn some serious rotational minutes. That would be a huge boost.
I have zero regrets about this season. The day Manu was out, Spurs season was done and I've started to look at 09-10.
I look at the positive side of last year :
First, Spurs losing quickly was a damn good news. Duncan will have tons of rest for his knees and Parker playing for his NT will be as harmless as it can be.
Second, the total disaster of the Mavs series allow Spurs FO to draw some definitive conclusions. There are few questions marks in this team.
Another spot on article. Agree with pretty much everything and as pointed out earlier it is the glaring weaknesses in talent that is this teams ultimate downfall. I would've been even more pissed if we had a completely healthy team in the playoffs last year and still couldn't get it done because there's such a steep drop in talent after the main 3. Besides being old as dirt/lacking athleticism at the SG/SF positions, the big man situation is just as bad. Mahinmi could help a ton if he can come in and do 8 and 8 or something around that and manage a block now and then as well as being a player who can clog the lane and alter some shots-but if he doesn't come thru we need to have a backup upgrade over bonner,oberto, KT (gooden is most likely gone). It's never been so obvious since TD came on board that this team is falling way behind other teams in bench/supporting talent.
I think there are some definite question marks Bruno:
1) Will Manu and Tim be healthy enough to play at an elite level?
2) If they are not healthy, if the decline has appeared rapidly, do you blow the team up?
3) Do you extend Ginobili? It depends largely on question 1. If he is healthy, what will it take? If he is not, do you let him expire or trade him? If so, for what logically?
4) Who can the Spurs draft, sign via free agency or trade for this year in order to propel them into serious contention? This depends on question 1.
3) Is 2010 still a viable option given the way the league is headed? Do you abandon the plan or do you go with what you can get now for better or worse because you do not think you can get anything in 2010?
Edit: unless you meant there were no question marks about the need to upgrade from the FO perspective.
timvp, very well thought-out recap.
Injuries and poor defense made this past season hard to watch. It was like watching the French NT trying to qualify.
If Ginobili and Duncan are done, Spurs are done and what the FO do is meaningless.
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