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I agree Wallace should be the top target.
Heading into free agency, the Spurs have a large need -- a bigman to put next to Tim Duncan in the starting lineup. Last year's starter Matt Bonner won't return to his starting role and backups Drew Gooden, Kurt Thomas and Fabricio Oberto are no longer with the team. Besides Bonner, the only other bigmen on the roster are the inexperienced duo of Ian Mahinmi and DeJuan Blair.
The good news for San Antonio is that there are a number of interesting bigman prospects in the 2009 free agency class. In a perfect world, the Spurs can find a starting bigman who can rebound, block shots and defend both in the block and out on the perimeter. On offense, it'd be preferred if he can hit shots from the outside, pass the ball well and be comfortable as a fourth or fifth option.
In past years few years, an athletic, running bigman would make the most sense. Right now? Not necessarily. Mahinmi and Blair should give the bigman rotation enough athleticism and energy. The Spurs actually need a player with enough experience and basketball savvy to be able to close out games. Otherwise, we are likely to see a ton of small ball -- especially in fourth quarters.
Here are the top 25 attainable bigmen free agents who can fit the role for the Spurs:
1. Rasheed Wallace
Coming into the offseason, I had Antonio McDyess as the number one bigman free agent target and Rasheed Wallace at two. After the Richard Jefferson trade, I still wanted McDyess slightly more than Wallace. However, after landing Blair on draft day, that addition changed the equation of what the Spurs need just enough to push Wallace up into the number one spot.
Trying to figure out Wallace's value to the Spurs is extremely complicated. There is so much to factor in when it comes to Wallace's game, his on-court combustible nature and the future of his production. After considering everything, I think the Spurs should make Wallace the first person they call when free agency officially begin on July 1st.
When figuring out what Wallace can do for the Spurs, I use Robert Horry as a guide. While there are definitely differences between the two players, they have a lot of similar attributes. They both have extremely high basketball IQs. They both can stretch a defense with their outside shooting. They are both very good post defenders. They are both unafraid of big situations.
Wallace brings a few things to the table that Horry didn't. He's a better rebounder, blocks more shots, turns the ball over less and has the ability to score on the low block. Wallace is also unquestionably the better regular season player.
On the other hand, Horry's mellow personality meshed really well with his teammates -- especially in the playoffs when his calm play helped the team execute even in the most intense situation. Wallace, as everyone knows, isn't calm at all. Horry was also a better passer and knew how to silently impact a game.
That said, I think Wallace could successfully play an Horry-like role with the Spurs. His on-court antics give me pause but everything else about him fits too perfectly to pass him up. Besides, Duncan has a history of responding to emotion.
His three-point shooting has been frowned upon in Detroit for the last few years because they've needed him to be a post presence. In San Antonio, that three-point shooting will come in handy. With Duncan, Manu Ginobili, Tony Parker and Richard Jefferson all most effective near the rim, the fifth player on the court needs to be a able to shoot to keep teams from packing the lane.
In four consecutive seasons, Wallace has shot between 35.1% and 35.7% from beyond the three-point arc, so it's safe to expect a similar number. On the Spurs, I'd expect at least half of his field goal attempts to be from downtown. Considering that his three-point percentage is equal to a two-point percentage of approximately 53%, I have no problem with him shooting as many threes as he wishes. He could give the Spurs a few low post looks each game but his main value will be his outside shooting.
Wallace's knock offensively over the years has been a lack of assertion. He just has never prospered in a go-to role. On the Spurs, that shouldn't be a factor. His overly unselfish offensive play is actually preferred due to the other options available. I can picture him flourishing in a fourth or fifth offensive option role. Add in his ridiculously low turnover rate and his offensive game should fit like a glove with the Spurs' talent.
Defensively, the Duncan and Wallace combination should be effective. It's not the quickest duo anymore but they both have good length and should be able to protect the rim reasonably well. You can stick Wallace on the other team's best post player on most nights and let Duncan concentrate on weakside help defense. Wallace is also a quality rebounder on the defensive end.
If the Spurs are to sign him, the Spurs should tell him to lose about 15 pounds. He's gotten a little chunky in recent years, perhaps in response to having to play down low on both ends more often since Ben Wallace left. But on the Spurs, he'd be more of a perimeter player and could use the extra mobility.
Wallace will be 35 years old by the start of next season, so there is a little bit of a risk that he may be near the end of his road. But he's coming off of a season that saw him play 32.2 minutes per game and with Pop likely slashing that to around 25 to 28 minutes, Wallace should have a couple of quality years left.
Speaking of Pop, it'd be really interesting to see how he responds to Wallace's technicals. Pop hates technical fouls but he would have to know that technicals are a part of the package with Wallace. And really, I think his emotion could keep the players and the fans engaged during the regular season. With the Pistons, I'm sure his emotional outbursts got old after five seasons. But in San Antonio, I don't see it being too huge of a problem in the short term.
All in all, I'd offer Wallace the full MLE for two years. He's evolving into a perimeter-oriented player but that would work perfectly for San Antonio. Put Wallace into Horry's role and the Spurs have a talented complementary piece both for the starting lineup and to close out contests.
2. Antonio McDyess
If Wallace can't be had, McDyess makes a fantastic Plan B. He's coming off of a very good season and I'm not sure any player in the NBA is as hungry for a championship as McDyess. He gives 110% effort to win and would fit perfectly off the court for San Antonio as well.
On the court, his rebounding would be a major asset. Even though he's 34, he's coming off of his second best per-minute rebounding season. He averaged 9.6 points and 9.7 rebounds in 30.1 minutes per game last season. Mathematically speaking, McDyess was a better rebounder than Duncan in the 2008-09 campaign.
Outside of his rebounding, McDyess is a good post defender and constantly fights for his position. He's not a great shotblocker but he adjusts a fair amount of attempts at the rim.
On the offensive end, he's a really good jumpshooter. Last year, he knocked down 47.3% of his two-point jumpers -- the seventh best mark in the league. Only Jason Terry, Ray Allen, Steve Nash, Chris Paul, Derek Fisher and Dirk Nowitzki shot better. While McDyess doesn't shoot three-pointers, his ability to drain mid-range jumpers would keep teams from leaving him open.
There's really not much of a downside to McDyess' game. I put him behind Wallace because Wallace has a higher basketball IQ, can spread the court a little bit better, has a better feel for the game out on the perimeter and doesn't have a history of knee problems. But that said, with McDyess, there would be absolutely no worries about whether his personality can fit on the team and health-wise he has actually held up quite well in recent years.
The addition of Blair makes rebounding slightly less important and makes spacing slightly more important, but I'd still be ecstatic if McDyess lands in San Antonio. Like Wallace, I'd give McDyess two years at the MLE.
3. Chris Andersen
It was difficult to figure out where to put Andersen on this list but one thing about him makes him desirable -- his shotblocking. Andersen is coming off of a season where he was just a tremendous shotblocker. He blocked 5.75 shots per 48 minutes -- a full block better than anyone else in the NBA.
Last year, the Spurs were the fourth worst shotblocking team in the league. Averaging just 4.01 blocks per game is very un-Spurs-like and played a big part in the defense falling off. Andersen would drastically change that and could single-handedly make the lane a much more fearful place to be for the opposition.
Other than his shotblocking, Andersen is also a capable rebounder. His post defense is decent and his perimeter defense is slightly above average.
On offense, Andersen is a good finisher at the rim. He has a knack for offensive rebounds and his hands are good.
Andersen's downsides are many. He's not really built to be a starter. His character and personality have to be in question following his drug suspension. He is old enough (31) that you can't expect much improvement. Plus his offensive game isn't varied at all. However, his shotblocking, athleticism and energy makes him an intriguing Plan C.
4. Anderson Varejao
I'm not sure anyone likes Varejao. He flops constantly, isn't pretty on the offensive end and seems to whine non-stop. That said, his defense makes him quite valuable.
On the post against power forwards, there are few defensive players as effective as Varejao. He uses boundless energy and a great ability to flop to shut down his opponents. Varejao also racks up rebounds, steals and blocks at quality rates.
Offensively, he's not much to write home about but he has a lot of experience playing off of great players. He usually knows where to be and is coming off of a season in which he hit 53.6% of his shots.
Considering everything, Varejao would be an extremely safe option who would undoubtedly help the Spurs on the defense end.
5. Marcin Gortat
If the Spurs want to roll the dice, Gortat could be an interesting gamble. In limited minutes, Gortat has been quite impressive. His rebounding is off the charts and he blocks shots at a very high rate.
Even though he's a big and strong seven-footer, Gortat can move his feet. He's also capable of running the court and finishes with authority around the basket. The native of Poland oftentimes did a remarkable Dwight Howard impersonation during his minutes on the court.
That said, there are a lot of risks regarding Gortat. First of all, he's a very, very limited offensive player. He's a poor passer and hit a total of three shots from the perimeter all season. He doesn't seem to have a good feel of the game when it comes to spacing and knowledge of where to be to help out his teammates.
Increasing the risk is the gimmick system he played in while with the Magic. He was almost always surrounded by four players who are best out on the perimeter. With the Spurs, he'd spend a lot of time playing with teammates who thrive near the rim. Could he adjust? There's a chance. But there's also a chance that the Magic's system accentuated his strengths and camouflaged his weaknesses.
6. Drew Gooden
It might be unfair to Gooden to put him this low on the list considering the statistical production he gave the Spurs last year during his stint. In his 19 games with San Antonio, he averaged 9.8 points and 4.4 rebounds in only 16.8 minutes per game. Stretch that production out to 36 minutes and his numbers are 21 points and 9.3 rebounds. Those numbers are hardly anything to ignore.
Offensively, Gooden has a good jumper. He can finish around the rim and his post-up skills are deceptively very good. Scoring-wise, he pretty much has it all in his game.
Where Gooden struggles is defensively and in the intangibles department. On D, he's doesn't make quick rotations. He's not a shotblocker. His rebounding seemed to get worse and worse while playing for the Spurs. In terms of basketball IQ, Gooden will always be poor. He just doesn't have a good feel for what's going on and his decision-making is lacking.
With the addition of Jefferson, I just don't see Gooden as a very good fit. Although, if the above five players aren't available, Gooden's scoring talent would be enough to look his direction again.
7. Zaza Pachulia
Pachulia has to be one of the most underrated bigmen in the league. He's big, strong and plays unafraid. In fact, sometimes he plays with too much confidence and too much anger that it gets him in trouble.
Two years ago, Pachulia averaged 12.2 points and 6.9 rebounds per game in 28.1 minutes per game. With the addition of Al Horford in Atlanta, Pachulia has been a bench player the last two seasons. He's coming off of a campaign that saw him average 6.2 points and 5.7 rebounds in 19.1 minutes per contest.
Even though he's a good rebounder, Pachulia doesn't block shots and makes a lot of bad decisions on the defensive end. He fouls a lot and has a lot to learn position defense. Pachulia would need to improve his defense to survive under Pop. Thankfully he's just 24 so it's possible he could still be improving.
Offensively, he's a good finisher around the basket and he's more coordinated than you'd expect. His outside jumper isn't horrible but it's definitely a work in progress. Pachulia does turn it over a little too much and he tends to try to do too much when he's isolated in one-on-one situations.
All things considered, Pachulia has a potential to grow into what the Spurs need but right now he's a little too raw to be any higher on this list.
8. Charlie Villanueva
If the Spurs want to go after a young player who could blossom into a star, Villanueva is a good choice. Though he's more of a small forward, he could get away with playing power forward on the Spurs.
At 6-foot-11, Villanueva is a capable rebounder, picks up a decent amount of blocks and steals, and has improved his passing over the last year. However, where he shines is offensively. He put up 16.2 points per game this past season in only 26.9 minutes per game.
Villanueva can shoot from the perimeter, score around the basket and knock down the mid-range jumper. When it comes to scoring, sky is the limit for him.
The neon question mark is his defense. Villanueva right now is a poor defender who often seems to have trouble with motivation and keeping his energy at a high level. He has the size to improve but does he have any interest in becoming a passable defensive player?
9. Brandon Bass
The Spurs tend to like to go after players who play well against them. Since Bass has been a thorn in their side for the last couple of years, the Spurs might take a look at Dallas' backup power forward.
The good thing about him is he can score both at the rim and from the perimeter. His outside jumper would help him fit offensively on the Spurs. On the defensive end, he's a deceptively good shotblocker and gives good energy in his post defense.
His biggest negative is his rebounding. He's 6-foot-8 and struggles to rebound his position, especially on the defensive end. Bass also isn't much of a passer and his feel for the game is questionable.
10. Glen Davis
In the playoffs, Big Baby came to play. Filling in for Kevin Garnett, Davis averaged 15.8 points and 5.6 rebounds in 36.4 minutes per game. He also hit a number of clutch baskets and appeared to be confident enough to let it fly from the perimeter -- not matter the situation.
At 6-foot-9 and 290 pounds, Davis is big dude. But the main problems are that he doesn't rebound or block shots nearly enough. He rebounded decently as a rookie but his rate fell off his sop re season. Davis isn't an overwhelming athlete and despite his girth, he gets pushed around easily. That hurts him both in terms of rebounding and on the defensive end.
11. Linas Kleiza
If the Spurs want to copy the Magic and find a small forward to play power forward next to Duncan, Kleiza might be a good choice. Even though he's only 6-foot-8, he's a physical player and that allows him to play against opponents who are bigger him.
Offensively, he'd be a good fit on the Spurs. He shoots it relatively well from the perimeter and usually makes smart decisions. On defense, he doesn't rebound too well or block many shots, so the Spurs would basically be in a small ball formation from the get go.
He'd be a surprise target but if Pop and the front office believes that the NBA is trending toward smaller and quicker lineups, Kleiza is one of the few small forwards on the market who could do a decent Rashard Lewis impersonation.
12. Chris Wilcox
Wilcox has tons of athleticism and a healthy amount of talent. The problem is that he's long been undermotivated and doesn't play with a consistent amount of energy. If you just watch highlights, he looks like a superstar in the making. But in reality, he's close to winning the Stromile Swift Lifetime Underachievement award.
Perhaps the Spurs could motivate him. Unlikely but theoretically possible. As is, he doesn't play defense or anything else that requires something other than natural talent and the ability to jump really high.
13. Rasho Nesterovic
Since being traded away, Nesterovic has become a much better offensive player. He has more confidence in his outside shooting and he's not afraid to attempt difficult passes. He's also shooting much better at the line and overall is more confident than the last time he was in silver and block.
His post defense is still good. He can still move his feet deceptively well. However, last season his rebounding and blocks were at career-low marks per minute. It'd be nice to add a player who doesn't need to learn the defense from scratch but if his rebounding and blocked shots are trending south, that's not a good sign.
14. Leon Powe
If it weren't for a torn ACL, Powe would make a lot of sense. He can score, rebound and even protect the rim reasonably well. His best attribute of all might be his great ability to get to the free throw line.
But with an injury that will keep him out for the beginning of the 2009-10 season and likely slow him for the rest of the year, he'd be a risky signing.
15. Hakim Warrick
Offensively, Warrick is quality. He can score both on jumpers and by using his elite athleticism. He gets to the line and at 26, there's a chance he could blossom into a good player.
The problem is that he's a horrible defensive player. He's shown no ability to guard the power forward position and his skinny build will likely never allow him to even become even an average defender.
16. Shelden Williams
Since being the fifth pick of the 2006 draft, Williams has been a disappointment. He was billed as a defensive player who could be dominant on the glass. While he's shown some potential, his production has been negated by a blatant lack of basketball smarts. He turns the ball over a lot, fouls a lot and can't pass.
In a short stint with the Timberwolves last season, Williams had very good rates in rebounding, steals and blocks. Perhaps the Spurs sign Williams with the hopes that they can help him to finally live up to his potential as a defensive stopper and rebounder.
17. Fabricio Oberto
Spurs fans know what Oberto brings to the table. He's an extremely crafty player who can pass the ball, move without the ball and defend the post reasonably well. Last season, Oberto fell out of favor mostly due to his sudden drop in rebounding. Seemingly overnight, he went from capable rebounder to poor rebounder -- especially on the defensive end.
But if the Spurs can't land a more talented player, Oberto could be brought back in as veteran insurance. He'd be a solid piece deep on the bench but it'd be foolish to go into next season depending on Oberto to produce.
18. Joe Smith
Like Oberto, Smith is a decent veteran filler at this point in his career. When waived last season, the Cavaliers made a quick push to acquire his services. While with Cleveland, he produced decently well but nothing too impressive.
His positive aspects are that he can hit the outside shot, defend the post, block shots at a decent rate, pass adequately and not turn the ball over. But he came up short last year in the playoffs and his lackluster rebounding and lack of footspeed limit his value.
19. Ike Diogu
Ever since he came into the league, Diogu has seemed on the brink of figuring it all out. What has hurt him most is that he's never really been given a fair chance to show what he can do. On a per-minue basis, he's been very productive despite his sporadic play.
Offensively, Diogu thrives in the low post. He's only 6-foot-8 but he's strong and has a good touch around the hoop. He has also become a pretty good rebounder despite his size.
Defense, though, is his problem. He doesn't guard the post well and is slow out on the perimeter. He tends to lose focus and will oftentimes find himself pushed underneath the rim.
On the Spurs, Diogu would give the team a second post scorer. But his poor defense will likely cause San Antonio to look elsewhere.
20. Ryan Hollins
As Spurs fans saw last year in the playoffs, Hollins is an extremely athletic seven-footer who can block shots. He's still learning the game and has shown good progress on the defensive end. Offensively, Hollins is basically just a dunker.
The problems with him as a prospect are he's not a good rebounder, not a good passer, turns the ball over a lot and has a low basketball IQ. That said, if the Spurs want a seven-foot gazelle on the cheap, he's their man.
21. Chris Mihm
The Spurs have shown interest in Mihm in the past. When healthy, he can score, rebound and block shots. He turns the ball over way too much, fouls too much and isn't a good passer but he can do other things well enough to help out.
The problem is he's been injured constantly for much of the last four years. If the Spurs think he's finally healthy, they could sign Mihm without spending much money.
22. Mikki Moore
The Celtics signed Moore last year in hopes that he could help provide bigman depth. By the playoffs, he had played himself out of the rotation.
Moore plays with good energy and his jumper is accurate. But he doesn't rebound too well, he doesn't block shots and his defense is mediocre at best.
23. Sean May
May has undergone microfracture surgery already in his short career and has struggled with his weight as of late. However, prior to his surgery, his per-minute numbers were good. He has good hands and supreme touch around the basket. May can also pop the jumper.
Defensively, he's not very good at all but he does rebound and may have room to improve if he can drop some extra pounds. If the Spurs sign May, they'd have to bring him along slowly and hope that he could eventually regain his former level of play.
24. Theo Ratliff
At 36, Ratliff is well past his prime. He has a difficult time staying on the court and he may have very well reached the end of his usefulness. But the one thing he still does very well is one thing the Spurs need -- shotblocking. He averaged one block per game last year in only 12.6 minutes per game. The rest of his game isn't very helpful but he can still be used as a defensive sub when needed.
25. Channing Frye
Frye's main attraction from the Spurs point of view would be his outside shot. He has range that extends out to about 20 feet and has even started shooting three-pointers. But everything else about Frye is underwhelming. He's a soft player who doesn't rebound, protect the rim or give quality effort. Overall, he's basically a worse version of Bonner.
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When July 1 hits, it'll be interesting to see who the Spurs talk to first. I think Wallace and McDyess should be the first two players contacted. If either one of those two players agree to come aboard the San Antonio ship, the Spurs have the answer to who starts next to Duncan.
If the Spurs strikeout on both, the rest of the options aren't as perfect but there is plenty of talent to be had. Equipped with the MLE and a gaping hole in the middle of their staring lineup, I'm confident the Spurs can attract a solid bigman.
I agree Wallace should be the top target.
At what point of your list do you think the full MLE is too much?
Would you prefer an overpaid middle ranked guy or a lower ranked guy for the minimum?
Good list, I don't know about Vaj though, i'd rather them go after some of the others first, Wednesday should be interesting.
Slam dunk, Sheed is the MAN!
Most shooters' numbers go up when they join the Spurs, sometimes drastically so. Rasheed is a very good shooter. I'd bet his numbers would go up.
If the Spurs strike out on both of the top two guys, expect to see the MLE split between more than one player. They can do that, right?
Respectfully disagree with putting the Birdman #3 on the list. He thrives in George Karl's helter-skelter system where he's pretty much got free reign to do his own thing, but I don't think he'd be nearly as effective on a team that relies on structure and discipline like the Spurs. I'd also move Pachulia up a few spots.
He's a really good defender, and he's really tough. I could actually live with the ridicule the Spurs would invite by signing him.
So would I. I think he's who the Spurs would go after if they miss on the first two on the list.
there's life after 2010/TD, whenever you think the window closes. We should get someone who will be around for a while, I like Andersen, (whoops he's 31, oh well, he's probably got 3-5 good years left) Gooden, and Varejao
If Spurs can't get Wallace or McDyess I'd roll the dice with Villanueva. With Duncan or Blair in the post CV would give the Spurs a different look and create some matchup problems potential. CV and then one cheap banger.
I'd guess the first 11 players have a relatively good shot of getting something close to the MLE. But it depends on how many teams will be willing to spend this summer.
Depends on the specific two players in question.
If it's something like Wilcox for the MLE or Rasho for the LLE, I'd bring back Rasho. Not sure if you remember him but he played pretty decent defense for the Spurs a few years ago.
I know, what happened to all the Gortat man love???
What happened to gortat #1?Most shooters' numbers go up when they join the Spurs, sometimes drastically so. Rasheed is a very good shooter. I'd bet his numbers would go up.
If the Spurs strike out on both of the top two guys, expect to see the MLE split between more than one player. They can do that, right?
If he's gonna come off the bench then I guess it would be alright, but a big no to starting.
to the nth degreeSlam dunk, Sheed is the MAN!
Birdman is really difficult to figure out. It depends a lot on whether the Spurs think he's past his problems. If he is, I think his shotblocking makes up for a lot of faults.
I like Pachulia. I just worry he's too much "bull in a china shop" right now for Pop's liking. Personally, he won me over by punking KG.
Gortat scares me. I can't help get a feeling of Gortat being like the college basketball player who has a good tourney and everyone falls in love with, despite never having heard of the guy before March. Are "we" interested in Gortat because he's a good player, or are "we" interested in him because we saw him be Dwight Howard's backup and Orlando made it to the finals?
Yes.If the Spurs strike out on both of the top two guys, expect to see the MLE split between more than one player. They can do that, right?
Great analysis as always. I think they need to make finding someone who can defend Gasol a top priority. He is able to shoot over players who are shorter than him unless they are strong enough to force him out of position.
The Spurs lost Thomas and he was the best at defending the Shaq, Yao type 7 ftrs and stronger low post players. That needs to be replaced.
Be carefull, don't talk bad about Gortat, or you will get his little two minute youtube clip of easy rebounds in the Finals and a couple little open dunks... According to some guys on the board, he is THE MAN or should I sa the HAMMER!!!
Last edited by 4RINGS; 06-28-2009 at 04:01 PM.
Nice list.
To me, there is quite a big drop in quality between Sheed and Dice and the rest of the list.
I'm also not sure that players after Diogu are even worth being signed.
Question: If Bonner was a FA, where would you put him in that list ?
Some think this guy should be #1 on the list...Be carefull, don't take bad about Gortat, or you will get his little two minute youtube clip of easy rebounds in the Finals and a couple little open dunks... According to some guys on the board, he is THE MAN or should I sa the HAMMER!!!
Which are restricted? That would seem to be a critical factor.
Excellent analysis although I might disagree with the top 2. Both are old and don't play as big on D as the Spurs need. The Spurs will need to guard Pao Gasol and, perhaps, Bynum to advance. I don't see Rasheed doing that.
Varejao would be nice and, maybe with Shaq's arrival, could be attainable. Then maybe Pachulia and Villanueva.
Camby is also possible via trade -- he plays good D, runs and can score.
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