Nice article in the ESPN on Duncan's canny and fundamentally sound defense.
At 36, can Tim Duncan be DPOY?
Spurs' aging star enjoying a rebirth and putting on clinic in blocking shots
Even if the Mayans had turned out to be right, I'd have been half-expecting Tim Duncan to find a way to continue to put up double-doubles on a nightly basis. That's how ludicrously consistent the Big Fundamental's career has been.Seriously, here were are, just a few days away from 2013, and Duncan ranks as the NBA's top big man in player efficiency rating (PER) at 25.2. This is a guy who made his NBA debut in October 1997 just after Detroit Pistons center Andre Drummond blew out the candles at his fourth birthday party. There's more: Duncan was playing in the NBA at the same time asCharles Jones, who used to be Dr. J's teammate.
Yes, Duncan is 36 years old and still dominating the league, 45,000 minutes later. Here's a long list of players who have averaged 17 points, 10 rebounds and two blocks at age 36:
Tim Duncan.
And that's it. No one else.
Chris Bosh called Duncan a "timeless classic" earlier this season, effectively making Duncan the "Citizen Kane" of basketball. The Heat center has a point; it feels like we can always count on Duncan for a good ol' 20-and-10 and a few swats on the side.
And it's those swats that has made this Duncan season as remarkable as any.
As startling as it sounds, Duncan, a 13-time all-defensive big man, has never had a better shot-blocking campaign in his career. He's currently collecting 2.6 blocks per game with an average of only 30.6 minutes of playing time. In other words, he's blocking more shots per 36 minutes (3.0) than at any point in his 15 seasons in the league.
And the best part? He probably hasn't left his feet for most of those blocks.
He certainly didn't leave his feet on Tuesday when he blocked the 7-foot-2 pogo stick JaVale McGee. Duncan barely left Earth to pin Corey Brewer's reverse layup to the backboard on Tuesday as well. Duncan just casually rotated over, reached up with two hands and stopped the ball dead in its tracks against the glass and descended to the ground with the rock. Before Brewer saw what happened, Duncan had already raised the ball above his head to distribute the outlet pass.
This is where the beauty of Duncan's game lies, the same technical mastery that gave him the Big Fundamental moniker. Rather than swat it like a volleyball e as so many young players tend to do, Duncan politely rejects the shot attempt with a certain delicacy that undoubtedly loses him macho points. More importantly, Duncan's compassionate blocks allow him to easily snatch away the possession.
Duncan is particularly adept in this underrated realm of block recovery. Research from 82games.com has found that only 57 percent of blocks are recovered from the defensive team and one of every six blocks is sent out of bounds in vain. But a quick viewing of the tape shows that the Spurs recovered 16 of Duncan's last 25 blocks, which is a 64 percent recovery rate. In Tuesday's game against Denver, he reeled in four of his five swats.
Another hidden value of Duncan's blocks: He stays home rather than chase rejections all over the floor. In fact, 83.6 percent of Duncan's blocks come within five feet of the basket, which is the highest rate among the 17 players with at least 40 blocks to their name this season.
Contrast that with Dwight Howard who registers a lot of blocks, but only 67.6 percent of them come in the immediate basket area, which means that Howard spends much of his time blocking lower-percentage shots that probably won't go in anyway.
In some ways, Duncan's lack of athleticism is a blessing in disguise; it keeps him in close proximity of the rim and prevents him from block hunting on jumpers like others. Seen another way, the average shot distance of a Duncan blocked shot is 2.9 feet. Among the top 25 shot-blockers in the league, only Bismack Biyombo posted a shorter block average (2.7 feet). Compare that 2.9-foot average with Anthony Davis, who's often hailed as the next Duncan. His average blocked-shot is 7.1 feet away. Andrei Kirilenko? 8.4 feet. JaVale McGee? 5.2 feet. Duncan probably silently scoffs in their general direction.
Shortest blocked shot distance (minimum 30 blocks)
Player Feet Blocks Bismack Biyombo 2.7 39 Tim Duncan 2.9 67 Serge Ibaka 3.3 80 Michael Kidd-Gilchrist 3.3 34 Josh Smith 3.6 48 Average 4.8
Duncan isn't cherry-picking against lesser players either. Duncan remains the only player in the NBA to block MVP candidates Kevin Durant and Carmelo Anthony each on multiple occasions. Poor Al Jefferson has been victimized by Duncan six times this season; Paul Millsap and DeMarcus Cousins have been rejected by Duncan three times.
More evidence of Duncan's subtle dominance on defense: He almost never fouls. As an illustration, let's compare him to his contemporaries. Serge Ibaka, Larry Sanders, Roy Hibbert and Dwight Howard are the only players who have more blocks than Duncan, and they've received 3.5, 4.3, 5.7 and 3.7 whistles per 36 minutes, respectively, this season. Duncan's foul rate? 2.1 fouls per 36 minutes, almost half those shot-blockers collective rate of 4.1 blocks per 36 minutes. Again, the Big Fundamental.
It might be too early to talk about defensive player of the year candidates -- then again, this is the Internet - but the Spurs have been defending like mad this season. They're currently ranking seventh in defensive efficiency on that end of the floor which is the team's highest ranking since 2008-09. Looking at the list of top defensive teams, it's hard not to at least consider Duncan as an early favorite, especially when you consider that he also has the fourth highest defensive rebound rate in the league as well.
As crazy as it sounds, Duncan's path to his first defensive player of the year award could be clearer than ever. Howard's balky back has drastically limited him this season, and Tyson Chandler's candidacy is hurt by the fact that the Knicks currently rank as a below-average defense in efficiency (16th), a ranking that could only get worse when Amar'e Stoudemire returns.
No one has ever won the top defender award after age 34, but that shouldn't stop Duncan from accomplishing the feat. When it comes to basketball, nothing seems to stop Duncan from accomplishing anything.
Such a joy to watch this guy continue to dominate into his elderly years. If the Spurs could dig deep and get him one more ring he might move into the top 5 all-time.
It is true that the DPOY award is more open this year than previous years. There are a few teams ahead of the Spurs in defensive efficiency but only the Clippers and Grizzlies are around the same rankings as the Spurs. However, there isn't a runaway player anchoring those teams while it is obvious that the Spurs' defense would tank dramatically without Duncan. The Spurs still need to crack the top 5 though for him to be really considered the favorite.
Duncan has a knack of getting guys to block their own shots. He has this uncanny ability to get guys out of position when they try to score.
Duncan is just better physically than he has been these past few years. Another stat that show it are dunks.
Tim's dunks per 40 minutes:
00-01: 1.18
01-02: 1.38
02-03: 1.70
03-04: 1.57
04-05: 1.54
05-06: 1.09
06-07: 0.85
07-08: 0.92
08-09: 0.49
09-10: 0.67
10-11: 0.72
11-12: 1.07
12-13: 1.26
You can really draw a parallel between that stat and Tim's physical shape. 08-09 was the tendonosis year.
Good find Bruno
Well if the articles keep coming and Tim still gonna be on the row, DPOTY is a high possibility
That's a great stat.
Duncan has had some absolutely nasty throwdowns this year.
Tim's award should be called the ADOPY -- the Actual Defensive Player of the Year -- award. In contrast to pretend defense like Dwight Howard does. Oooh look he blocks shots! He must be a great defender and really help his team win games that way! Ummm..... no.
http://www.nba.com/spurs/video/2012/...nba/index.html
Mmmmmmmmmm. Tasty.
I so badly want Duncan to win the defensive player of the year award. It was bull that Bowen was scoffed and forgotten his whole career. But Duncan is the greatest Spur of all time, and there might never be anyone better to follow. I'd like him to have this additional feather in an already very full hat.
I don't see it happening, and it has everything to do with the conspiracy of Spurs antipathy in the NBA FO of the past 6 or so years. Why are we talking about the possibility of Duncan's FIRST Dpoy? Why doesn't Bowen have one? , will Duncan be passed over for ANY All-Defense Team placement for Kobe again? If so, that would make 3 consecutive years.
Stern's got the lovechild of Russell & Mikan in his league and he ing hates him. *scoffs*
Oh yeah, "Pete Sampras." Just get the out of here with that.
Timmy is a true professional. I feel fortunate to watch him play.. It is something that I will tell my kids.. He is the best SPUR.. I hope he does win the DPOY. It will be something nice to add to his trophy case..
I believe 08-09 was the last time the Spurs were a good defensive team. Then the next year the defense fell of a cliff and has been there the past few years.
For what it's worth, Duncan is 3rd in Defensive Win Shares this year (behind Joakim Noah and Paul George) and 2nd in Defensive Rating (behind Larry Sanders). Pretty incredible.
I am highly on board with the idea that he's the DPOY so far this year.
Nice comparisonStern's got the lovechild of Russell & Mikan in his league and he ing hates him. *scoffs*
Great work by Tom Haberstroh. He seems to have taken the baton from Hollinger and is doing well so far
Duncan has been the best defensive bigman this season from what I've seen (I'd probably put Asik or Chandler). It's criminal that he doesn't have a DPOY to date but it'd be awesome if he got one this year. The Spurs would have to finish in the top three defensively and Duncan would have to probably play >30 minutes per game .... but I don't think it's impossible. The article doesn't mention it but Duncan is also averaging more steals than ever, and while it's probably not that important in reality, it sounds good on paper.
It used to be that David Robinson was the best at blocking shots and instantly grabbing it ... now Duncan is suddenly great at doing that same thing
Just a great damn season for Duncan...
Fantastic work. Might be the post of the season so far.
It's difficult to prove that Duncan has been able to turn back the clock ... but those numbers pretty much do exactly that.
05-06 was his plantar fasciitis year, thus the big drop. His other big drop, as you pointed out, was the tendonosis year in 08-09. If it was possible to go back further, I bet we'd see a big drop due to the torn meniscus he suffered at the end of 99-00 (that would explain why he had to build back up to that 02-03 peak).
It's logical that Duncan dunks more when he's feeling good. Going forward, it'd be a good idea to keep an eye on that stat in order to note any changes.
About damn time
And starting Tiago instead of Blair should help too
As for turning back the clock, hopefully Timmy can keep it up. I remember some seasons with good starts only to get tired and injured after the Rodeo Trip
Duncan was dunking with authority (for his age anyway) against the Grizz in the first round before he injured his ankle that got hurt late in the season.
He won't win without vigorous campaigning from strong media personalities, and maybe a lot from Pop.
Unfortunately, the votes for DPOY depend on who s the most to the idiot media possibly more than any other award, which is why Duncan or Bowen never won before.
Dikembe only got the award after crying to the media non-stop, then the lazy media gave it to him for years. Rick Carlisle is the prince of media ass-kissing, thus Ben Wallace won it for years with the lazy voters even after he left. After he left Detroit, he personally lobbied members of the media to name Artest DPoY, going so far as to supply them with made-up, proprietary in-house Pacer stats to prove it. Then Dwight Howard cries to the media, and they give it to him. Other attempts to sway the media have been made by teams, like Morey's pushing Battier in national media, to no doubt Carlisle trying desperately to get Marion the DPoY. , Carlisle's efforts on behalf of Chandler paid off after he left the team.
If Barkley or Jeff Van Gundy took up the mantle of promoting Duncan as DPoY, it could happen. If Pop ever tries to play the media game on behalf of his players, Duncan has a chance. Duncan and Bowen would have already won it if Pop begged like Carlisle.
I feel like a case can already be made for him being to 5 all-time, especially since he's widely considered the GOAT power forward.
I still think Ibaka will get it this year
I sure hope not. At this point it's almost common knowledge, but Ibaka's defensive numbers aren't all that great. He's above average, but not by much. Basically he's an amazing shot blocker, and can't do much of anything else.
They will just check the bpg and rpg numbers for the DPOY.
Timmy's also posting his best rebounding season in years, though.
Also worth noting that of the top 5 shot blockers in the league, only Roy Hibbert is on a team with a better overall defense than the Spurs - they're IIRC 2nd or 3rd overall while the Spurs are 6th. The Lakers, Bucks, and Thunder are all in the teens in defensive rating.
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