Election Prediction Thread

[MannyIsGod]

I keep seeing the Whottt predictions in sigs and I figured a thread where we all predict shit that will happen.

BTW, My Avatar, Title and sig are all open for bets if anyone wants to lay one out.

Obama will capture more than 50% of the popular vote nation wide.
Obama will win with over 330 EVs.
Obama will outperform polls in almost every single state.
Georgia and Arkansas will be much closer than anyone has figured for.
Texas will be very close to a 5 point race and which will make for pretty big headlines.
The race will be called before the West Coast is done voting.
The Democrats surpass the 60 seat threshold. (Senator Al Franken is funny as hell)

[DarkReign]

Texas will be very close to a 5 point race and which will make for pretty big headlines.

Ooooooooo.....that one is seriously tempting.

But I dont have the balls to bet a native Texan who actively participates politically in his geographical area.

But man.....its tempting...

[nkdlunch]

Obama will win VA and FL that's all there is to predict.

[timvp]

Texas will be very close to a 5 point race and which will make for pretty big headlines.I need to get in on this action. I just don't see it ... too many red counties.

Although, voting against myself would be kinda weird . . .

[Supergirl]

I predict it will be 337 - 201, with Obama winning NV, CO, NM, VA, PA, OH, NH, and NC but losing FL and IN and TX.

I do NOT think the election will be called before the West is done voting, because without all three of those states, he doesn't win, and there's some nasty campaigns in CA in particular right now that have galvanized the right. Also, because most respectable news sources have learned their lesson from 2000 about prematurely predicting.

[Findog]

Obama 329 Electoral Votes
McCain 209 Electoral Votes

Obama Popular 52%
McCain Popular 47%
Third Party 1%

Obama will take all Kerry states. He will pick up the following Bush 2004 states:

Iowa, Colorado, Florida, Nevada, New Mexico, Virginia and Missouri

[Findog]

I predict Obama will NOT take Ohio. Ohio has a lot of racist voters, has been hit hard by NAFTA, and there's been a resultant brain drain out of the state.

This is Ohio for you:

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[lurker23]

The race will be called before the West Coast is done voting.


After 2000, there's virtually no way this happens. Obama may be at 260 with the entire west coast still at the polls (and we all know CA/OR/WA will go his way), but there's little chance they're going to "call" the election until those polls are closed. They're too afraid that by calling the race they'll impact the actual voting that goes on there, and with good reason.

(After typing this, I guess the only way this happens is if it is a huge landslide for Obama (that is, he doesn't need the 77 EVs of the west coast plus Hawaii (and/or the 5 in NV) to win). However, even then, I suspect they would hold off on a close race in the midwest just so they don't impact the west coast.)

Edit: Supergirl beat me to part of this idea.

[Findog]

I think they don't call states until the polling closes. Now if Virginia or North Carolina is called for Obama while the polls are still open in California, logic would dictate that he's won the election. But he won't officially start answering to "President-Elect Obama" until California, Nevada, Washington and Oregon are called. He probably needs those to *officially* surpass 270.

[DWest30]

I think Obama will win around 360 ECVs and around 54% of the popular vote. I think he'll take FL, MO and VA. Dems will have 57 senators.

[JoeChalupa]

OBama wins.

[florige]

I keep seeing the Whottt predictions in sigs and I figured a thread where we all predict shit that will happen.

BTW, My Avatar, Title and sig are all open for bets if anyone wants to lay one out.

Obama will capture more than 50% of the popular vote nation wide.
Obama will win with over 330 EVs.
Obama will outperform polls in almost every single state.
Georgia and Arkansas will be much closer than anyone has figured for.
Texas will be very close to a 5 point race and which will make for pretty big headlines.
The race will be called before the West Coast is done voting.
The Democrats surpass the 60 seat threshold. (Senator Al Franken is funny as hell)



I sure as hell hope so. I have to be in court the next morning early....:lol

[Findog]

^ I'm taking a personal day on November 5th. Either crying and masturbating at the same time, or deliriously happy.

[MannyIsGod]

I predict it will be 337 - 201, with Obama winning NV, CO, NM, VA, PA, OH, NH, and NC but losing FL and IN and TX.

I do NOT think the election will be called before the West is done voting, because without all three of those states, he doesn't win, and there's some nasty campaigns in CA in particular right now that have galvanized the right. Also, because most respectable news sources have learned their lesson from 2000 about prematurely predicting.


After 2000, there's virtually no way this happens. Obama may be at 260 with the entire west coast still at the polls (and we all know CA/OR/WA will go his way), but there's little chance they're going to "call" the election until those polls are closed. They're too afraid that by calling the race they'll impact the actual voting that goes on there, and with good reason.

(After typing this, I guess the only way this happens is if it is a huge landslide for Obama (that is, he doesn't need the 77 EVs of the west coast plus Hawaii (and/or the 5 in NV) to win). However, even then, I suspect they would hold off on a close race in the midwest just so they don't impact the west coast.)

Edit: Supergirl beat me to part of this idea.


I think they don't call states until the polling closes. Now if Virginia or North Carolina is called for Obama while the polls are still open in California, logic would dictate that he's won the election. But he won't officially start answering to "President-Elect Obama" until California, Nevada, Washington and Oregon are called. He probably needs those to *officially* surpass 270.

I think any rational person will concede that if Obama takes states like NC and VA then the game is over. I guess whether or not they call is up in the air, but I'm not sure what type of path to victory McCain has without a VA in his column much less NC. I guess it will be interesting to see, but I really expect the race to be called by 9pm central time which is when the West Coast polls will close.

I agree with Timvp that my Texas prediction is the one that is the riskiest and I may simply be tainted by being so close to one side of the contest, but I have faith. In reality Texas being within 8 points is a victory for Obama and I think thats almost a certainty.

[Findog]

Yeah, it's all over but the shouting at that point.

[Wild Cobra]

I'll stick with my original prediction:

http://i181.photobucket.com/albums/x262/Wild_Cobra/electionprediction.jpg

[tp2021]

^ I'm taking a personal day on November 5th. Either crying and masturbating at the same time, or deliriously happy.

Aren't they one in the same?

[Duff McCartney]

I'm not gonna bet any sig garbage cause I don't care enough about your sig or pic to bet. Nor do I visit this site as often anymore..but Texas won't be within 5 points. Book that.

[MannyIsGod]

Its not as outlandish as people think and here's my reasoning. The polling I've seen is skewed pretty heavily to a republican angle and its only about a 10 point lead with a lot of undecideds. There is a bit of polling cause of the senate race which has tightened (if the Dems somehow win this seat then they've not only gotten 60 but maybe 61-2) and it is just far more favorable to the GOP.

This isn't big news, and this is Texas, but we're also seeing record turnout figures across the state in early voting and I promise you that is not due to GOP enthusiasm but the opposite. This a good indicator that 3 main Obama groups are turning out and they're turning out in force. Hispanics, Blacks, and the Youth are all going to break records as far as turnout in this election and because Obama does so well with these groups any underestimation of their numbers by a poll really starts to skew the numbers torward Obama.

I actually think this phenomenon is going to be present across the country and the early voting numbers coupled with the comments I keep reading about the status of the GOTV campaigns and ground games just reinforces my thinking in this regard.

[Nbadan]

Its not as outlandish as people think and here's my reasoning. The polling I've seen is skewed pretty heavily to a republican angle and its only about a 10 point lead with a lot of undecideds. There is a bit of polling cause of the senate race which has tightened (if the Dems somehow win this seat then they've not only gotten 60 but maybe 61-2) and it is just far more favorable to the GOP.

This isn't big news, and this is Texas, but we're also seeing record turnout figures across the state in early voting and I promise you that is not due to GOP enthusiasm but the opposite. This a good indicator that 3 main Obama groups are turning out and they're turning out in force. Hispanics, Blacks, and the Youth are all going to break records as far as turnout in this election and because Obama does so well with these groups any underestimation of their numbers by a poll really starts to skew the numbers torward Obama.

I actually think this phenomenon is going to be present across the country and the early voting numbers coupled with the comments I keep reading about the status of the GOTV campaigns and ground games just reinforces my thinking in this regard.

I think your right, but after 00 and 04 I can't help but worry about GOP voter suppression and massive e-voting fraud...e-voting problems are already happening and the GOP has set the stage to help justify massive voter suppression with the whole ACORN registration problems...despite the massive leads in the polls and what will be a sizeable lead in the exit polls on Nov 4th, I will be breathing a sigh of relief when Obama pulls it out...

[Kamala]

I believe McCain will win. Bradley effect, corruption, and a stupid electorate are in his favor.

[Nbadan]

I believe McCain will win. Bradley effect, corruption, and a stupid electorate are in his favor.

God help this country..

[Mr. Peabody]

Wait are we talking a mini-Obama or the real size?

mini Obama 550 EV
McCain (-12) EV

No, really -

Obama - 300-320 EV
McCain - 218-238 EV

Obama wins 52%-47% over McCain in popular vote.

[florige]

^ I'm taking a personal day on November 5th. Either crying and masturbating at the same time, or deliriously happy.




:lol Man if this shit goes into Wed, I'm going to totally lose my faith in ALL polls.... (well unless of course Obama is caught jacking it in a gay club or something between now and the 3rd. And even then, lol)

[TheMadHatter]

If early voting is any indication of the Democratic turnout this year the Republicans are dead in the water.

Thus far, in the battleground states where early voting has started the Democrats are posting historical record numbers. I really believe as the GOP continues to get more and more desperate it will have a net negative effect and not only turn off Republican voters and keep them from voting McCain but will energize Democrats into voting for Obama.

Obama landslide, it could get MUCH worse for McCain depending on how low he wants to go from here on out.

[TheMadHatter]

^ I'm taking a personal day on November 5th. Either crying and masturbating at the same time, or deliriously happy.

I'm seriously contemplating heading out to wherever Obama makes his acceptance speech. I want to be there for that moment.

Otherwise I'm gonna get ridiculously shit faced with my fellow Demoncrats and Anti-Christ Obama supporters :hat

[florige]

I'm seriously contemplating heading out to wherever Obama makes his acceptance speech. I want to be there for that moment.

Otherwise I'm gonna get ridiculously shit faced with my fellow Demoncrats and Anti-Christ Obama supporters :hat



Probably in his home state I'm guessing. Not sure though.

[Bartleby]

Obama will take all Kerry states. He will pick up the following Bush 2004 states:

Iowa, Colorado, Florida, Nevada, New Mexico, Virginia and Missouri

I can see that, but I'd replace Missouri with North Carolina.

Obama will win with 344 Electoral votes.

[balli]

I don't think we're going to see a Bradley effect. Few Dems (which is half the nation) are racist and neither are independents. Here, in 2008, most [closet] racists are lurking in the dark wings of the GOP anyway. In addition I think there's going to be a heavier African-American turnout than otherwise expected.

[Shastafarian]

I can see that, but I'd replace Missouri with North Carolina.

Obama will win with 344 Electoral votes.

I think we had the same map goin. The worst case I could do and still think it plausible was Obama getting 306.

[TheMadHatter]

There is not going to be a Bradley affect. Those who won't vote for Obama because of his race will just say they are voting for McCain because he is more experienced. They have no reason to lie and say they are voting for Obama when they aren't, that makes no sense to me in this general election.

[MannyIsGod]

I'm seriously contemplating heading out to wherever Obama makes his acceptance speech. I want to be there for that moment.

Otherwise I'm gonna get ridiculously shit faced with my fellow Demoncrats and Anti-Christ Obama supporters :hat

Yeah good luck getting into that party. It'll probably be in Chicago. I plan on being in NM.

[MannyIsGod]

The Bradley effect is the most over hyped phenomenon I've ever seen in my life. 2% points. Thats what we're talking about. 2% points and its not even a sure thing that it ever existed.

[TheMadHatter]

Yeah good luck getting into that party. It'll probably be in Chicago. I plan on being in NM.

I might make the trip when he gets sworn into office. That would be worth seeing more than his acceptance speech actually.

[MannyIsGod]

I might make the trip when he gets sworn into office. That would be worth seeing more than his acceptance speech actually.

Oh god yes. I'm scheming to get into the Inauguration stuff but its going to be hard.

[DWest30]

From fivethirtyeight.com dated 10/17:

"So a canvasser goes to a woman's door in Washington, Pennsylvania. Knocks. Woman answers. Knocker asks who she's planning to vote for. She isn't sure, has to ask her husband who she's voting for. Husband is off in another room watching some game. Canvasser hears him yell back, "We're votin' for the n***er!"

Woman turns back to canvasser, and says brightly and matter of factly: "We're voting for the n***er."

In this economy, racism is officially a luxury. How is John McCain going to win if he can't win those voters? John Murtha's "racist" (http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5j0q0L6_tj5OkoqKqBgOieU39awQAD93R80C80) western Pennsylvania district, where this story takes place, is some of the roughest turf in the nation. But Barack Obama is on the ground and making inroads due to unusually strong organizing leadership."
(http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/on-road-western-pennsylvania.html)

I think the "Bradley Effect" if it ever was real, wont play a part this election.

[Findog]

I'm seriously contemplating heading out to wherever Obama makes his acceptance speech. I want to be there for that moment.

Otherwise I'm gonna get ridiculously shit faced with my fellow Demoncrats and Anti-Christ Obama supporters :hat

You live in Chicago? It's in Grant Park from what I understand.

[MannyIsGod]

From fivethirtyeight.com dated 10/17:

"So a canvasser goes to a woman's door in Washington, Pennsylvania. Knocks. Woman answers. Knocker asks who she's planning to vote for. She isn't sure, has to ask her husband who she's voting for. Husband is off in another room watching some game. Canvasser hears him yell back, "We're votin' for the n***er!"

Woman turns back to canvasser, and says brightly and matter of factly: "We're voting for the n***er."

In this economy, racism is officially a luxury. How is John McCain going to win if he can't win those voters? John Murtha's "racist" (http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5j0q0L6_tj5OkoqKqBgOieU39awQAD93R80C80) western Pennsylvania district, where this story takes place, is some of the roughest turf in the nation. But Barack Obama is on the ground and making inroads due to unusually strong organizing leadership."
(http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/on-road-western-pennsylvania.html)

I think the "Bradley Effect" if it ever was real, wont play a part this election.

I've read that and OTHER stories that say basically the same thing. Its pretty damn insane.

[florige]

I wonder where McCain's acceptance speech will be my friends?

[Findog]

I think your right, but after 00 and 04 I can't help but worry about GOP voter suppression and massive e-voting fraud...e-voting problems are already happening and the GOP has set the stage to help justify massive voter suppression with the whole ACORN registration problems...despite the massive leads in the polls and what will be a sizeable lead in the exit polls on Nov 4th, I will be breathing a sigh of relief when Obama pulls it out...

Did you see the Palin-McCain joint interview with Brian Williams? They certainly don't act like they can count on massive electoral fraud.

[Findog]

I wonder where McCain's acceptance speech will be my friends?

Same place as the Phoenix Suns parade route for winning the NBA Championship. There's not going to be a lot of happy people along Jefferson and Washington Street on Election Night.

[florige]

Same place as the Phoenix Suns parade route for winning the NBA Championship. There's not going to be a lot of happy people along Jefferson and Washington Street on Election Night.



:lol Poor AZ, stay getting screwed. I wonder if they are going to have a car with a picture of Obama on the front of the hood with some moron with a sledgehammer pounding the sand out of it?

[MannyIsGod]

IE

From Ben Smith's blog:


In the first house I visited, a huge Confederate flag that completely filled my field of view was tacked to the living room wall. Couldn't take my eyes off it as I launched into my standard Obama talk. The guy stopped me mid-sentence, "We're with Obama. He's the only one for the working man. Most of us around here are GM and GM is with Obama."

His neighbor was a postal worker. I almost missed the ceramic black lawn jockey on his porch, a relic of bygone days in many other parts of the state, but what was unmistakable was the household's political allegiance: a "Postal Workers Back Obama" yard sign was planted on the front lawn.BTW there was no massive voter fraud in 04. Lets get past that please. Kerry lost because he sucked.

[DaDakota]

Obama in a landslide.

330+ Electoral votes

McSame - who cares.

Palin back to obscurity

DD

[RandomGuy]

I keep seeing the Whottt predictions in sigs and I figured a thread where we all predict shit that will happen.

BTW, My Avatar, Title and sig are all open for bets if anyone wants to lay one out.

Obama will capture more than 50% of the popular vote nation wide.
Obama will win with over 330 EVs.
Obama will outperform polls in almost every single state.
Georgia and Arkansas will be much closer than anyone has figured for.
Texas will be very close to a 5 point race and which will make for pretty big headlines.
The race will be called before the West Coast is done voting.
The Democrats surpass the 60 seat threshold. (Senator Al Franken is funny as hell)

I think you are right on all counts.

FWIW, my wife is driving fellow Democrats to the polls, and every district in our county has done a door to door walkthrough of neighborhoods.

Participation in our little blue county will be VERY high.

[RandomGuy]

From fivethirtyeight.com dated 10/17:

"So a canvasser goes to a woman's door in Washington, Pennsylvania. Knocks. Woman answers. Knocker asks who she's planning to vote for. She isn't sure, has to ask her husband who she's voting for. Husband is off in another room watching some game. Canvasser hears him yell back, "We're votin' for the n***er!"

Woman turns back to canvasser, and says brightly and matter of factly: "We're voting for the n***er."


:lmao

:depressed

:lmao

:depressed

:lmao

:depressed

:smchode:

[Bartleby]

FWIW, my wife is driving fellow Democrats to the polls, and every district in our county has done a door to door walkthrough of neighborhoods.

Participation in our little blue county will be VERY high.

I'm planning on doing that here in PA (in a very red county).

[RandomGuy]

I'm seriously contemplating heading out to wherever Obama makes his acceptance speech. I want to be there for that moment.

Otherwise I'm gonna get ridiculously shit faced with my fellow Demoncrats and Anti-Christ Obama supporters :hat

Yup. There will be a lot of hangovers in the fake, anti-American parts of the country. :toast

[Centaur of the Sun]

Not exactly a radical EC prediction:

http://img505.imageshack.us/img505/6302/86181375wi8.jpg

[MannyIsGod]

Obama will capture more than 50% of the popular vote nation wide.
Obama will win with over 330 EVs.
Obama will outperform polls in almost every single state.
Georgia and Arkansas will be much closer than anyone has figured for.
Texas will be very close to a 5 point race and which will make for pretty big headlines.
The race will be called before the West Coast is done voting.
The Democrats surpass the 60 seat threshold. (Senator Al Franken is funny as hell)

Still looking for bets!

[MannyIsGod]

I'm seriously contemplating heading out to wherever Obama makes his acceptance speech. I want to be there for that moment.

Otherwise I'm gonna get ridiculously shit faced with my fellow Demoncrats and Anti-Christ Obama supporters :hat

Its going to be in Chicago and I believe open to the public. Fire it up bro! Go and take lots of pictures. I really wish I could go.

[ChumpDumper]

It's going to be at Grant Park. Should be a blast.

[Trainwreck2100]

I predict the winner will suck.

I predict people will bitch about not being able to vote cause they got there late to long lines.

[Duff McCartney]

Texas will be very close to a 5 point race and which will make for pretty big headlines.


..but Texas won't be within 5 points. Book that.

With 92 Percent reporting in Texas McCain is up 55 to 44 Percent. I told you it wasn't within 5 points.

[MannyIsGod]

I keep seeing the Whottt predictions in sigs and I figured a thread where we all predict shit that will happen.

BTW, My Avatar, Title and sig are all open for bets if anyone wants to lay one out.

Obama will capture more than 50% of the popular vote nation wide.
Obama will win with over 330 EVs.
Obama will outperform polls in almost every single state.
Georgia and Arkansas will be much closer than anyone has figured for.
Texas will be very close to a 5 point race and which will make for pretty big headlines.
The race will be called before the West Coast is done voting.
The Democrats surpass the 60 seat threshold. (Senator Al Franken is funny as hell)

I was wrong on a good deal of these. I got the first 2 right but I think those were pretty easy. I don't know if he's outperformed polls yet but we'll know soon. Georgia was close but I'm not sure if I got this right. I got it right on the Arkansas side, but other states like Montana and North Dakota were certainly more competitive than anyone thought.

Texas was way wrong

The race was way over well before the polls closed in CA, and although the networks didn't officially call it thats only because they wanted the polls to close because not one second after they did they announced it was over.

I was wrong on the super majority as well. Shit, even Stevens appears to have won.

[MannyIsGod]

With 92 Percent reporting in Texas McCain is up 55 to 44 Percent. I told you it wasn't within 5 points.

Congrats and Props on your bold prediction.