Election Prediction Thread

[MannyIsGod]

I keep seeing the Whottt predictions in sigs and I figured a thread where we all predict that will happen.

BTW, My Avatar, le and sig are all open for bets if anyone wants to lay one out.

Obama will capture more than 50% of the popular vote nation wide.
Obama will win with over 330 EVs.
Obama will outperform polls in almost every single state.
Georgia and Arkansas will be much closer than anyone has figured for.
Texas will be very close to a 5 point race and which will make for pretty big headlines.
The race will be called before the West Coast is done voting.
The Democrats surpass the 60 seat threshold. (Senator Al Franken is funny as )

[DarkReign]

Texas will be very close to a 5 point race and which will make for pretty big headlines.

Ooooooooo.....that one is seriously tempting.

But I dont have the balls to bet a native Texan who actively participates politically in his geographical area.

But man.....its tempting...

[nkdlunch]

Obama will win VA and FL that's all there is to predict.

[timvp]

Texas will be very close to a 5 point race and which will make for pretty big headlines.

I need to get in on this action. I just don't see it ... too many red counties.

Although, voting against myself would be kinda weird . . .

[Supergirl]

I predict it will be 337 - 201, with Obama winning NV, CO, NM, VA, PA, OH, NH, and NC but losing FL and IN and TX.

I do NOT think the election will be called before the West is done voting, because without all three of those states, he doesn't win, and there's some nasty campaigns in CA in particular right now that have galvanized the right. Also, because most respectable news sources have learned their lesson from 2000 about prematurely predicting.

[Findog]

Obama 329 Electoral Votes
McCain 209 Electoral Votes

Obama Popular 52%
McCain Popular 47%
Third Party 1%

Obama will take all Kerry states. He will pick up the following Bush 2004 states:

Iowa, Colorado, Florida, Nevada, New Mexico, Virginia and Missouri

[Findog]

I predict Obama will NOT take Ohio. Ohio has a lot of racist voters, has been hit hard by NAFTA, and there's been a resultant brain drain out of the state.

This is Ohio for you:

[lurker23]

The race will be called before the West Coast is done voting.

After 2000, there's virtually no way this happens. Obama may be at 260 with the entire west coast still at the polls (and we all know CA/OR/WA will go his way), but there's little chance they're going to "call" the election until those polls are closed. They're too afraid that by calling the race they'll impact the actual voting that goes on there, and with good reason.

(After typing this, I guess the only way this happens is if it is a huge landslide for Obama (that is, he doesn't need the 77 EVs of the west coast plus Hawaii (and/or the 5 in NV) to win). However, even then, I suspect they would hold off on a close race in the midwest just so they don't impact the west coast.)

Edit: Supergirl beat me to part of this idea.

[Findog]

I think they don't call states until the polling closes. Now if Virginia or North Carolina is called for Obama while the polls are still open in California, logic would dictate that he's won the election. But he won't officially start answering to "President-Elect Obama" until California, Nevada, Washington and Oregon are called. He probably needs those to *officially* surpass 270.

[DWest30]

I think Obama will win around 360 ECVs and around 54% of the popular vote. I think he'll take FL, MO and VA. Dems will have 57 senators.

[JoeChalupa]

OBama wins.

[florige]

I keep seeing the Whottt predictions in sigs and I figured a thread where we all predict that will happen.

BTW, My Avatar, le and sig are all open for bets if anyone wants to lay one out.

Obama will capture more than 50% of the popular vote nation wide.
Obama will win with over 330 EVs.
Obama will outperform polls in almost every single state.
Georgia and Arkansas will be much closer than anyone has figured for.
Texas will be very close to a 5 point race and which will make for pretty big headlines.
The race will be called before the West Coast is done voting.
The Democrats surpass the 60 seat threshold. (Senator Al Franken is funny as )

I sure as hope so. I have to be in court the next morning early....

[Findog]

^ I'm taking a personal day on November 5th. Either crying and masturbating at the same time, or deliriously happy.

[MannyIsGod]

I predict it will be 337 - 201, with Obama winning NV, CO, NM, VA, PA, OH, NH, and NC but losing FL and IN and TX.

I do NOT think the election will be called before the West is done voting, because without all three of those states, he doesn't win, and there's some nasty campaigns in CA in particular right now that have galvanized the right. Also, because most respectable news sources have learned their lesson from 2000 about prematurely predicting.

After 2000, there's virtually no way this happens. Obama may be at 260 with the entire west coast still at the polls (and we all know CA/OR/WA will go his way), but there's little chance they're going to "call" the election until those polls are closed. They're too afraid that by calling the race they'll impact the actual voting that goes on there, and with good reason.

(After typing this, I guess the only way this happens is if it is a huge landslide for Obama (that is, he doesn't need the 77 EVs of the west coast plus Hawaii (and/or the 5 in NV) to win). However, even then, I suspect they would hold off on a close race in the midwest just so they don't impact the west coast.)

Edit: Supergirl beat me to part of this idea.

I think they don't call states until the polling closes. Now if Virginia or North Carolina is called for Obama while the polls are still open in California, logic would dictate that he's won the election. But he won't officially start answering to "President-Elect Obama" until California, Nevada, Washington and Oregon are called. He probably needs those to *officially* surpass 270.

I think any rational person will concede that if Obama takes states like NC and VA then the game is over. I guess whether or not they call is up in the air, but I'm not sure what type of path to victory McCain has without a VA in his column much less NC. I guess it will be interesting to see, but I really expect the race to be called by 9pm central time which is when the West Coast polls will close.

I agree with Timvp that my Texas prediction is the one that is the riskiest and I may simply be tainted by being so close to one side of the contest, but I have faith. In reality Texas being within 8 points is a victory for Obama and I think thats almost a certainty.

[Findog]

Yeah, it's all over but the shouting at that point.

[Wild Cobra]

I'll stick with my original prediction:

[tp2021]

^ I'm taking a personal day on November 5th. Either crying and masturbating at the same time, or deliriously happy.

Aren't they one in the same?

[Duff McCartney]

I'm not gonna bet any sig garbage cause I don't care enough about your sig or pic to bet. Nor do I visit this site as often anymore..but Texas won't be within 5 points. Book that.

[MannyIsGod]

Its not as outlandish as people think and here's my reasoning. The polling I've seen is skewed pretty heavily to a republican angle and its only about a 10 point lead with a lot of undecideds. There is a bit of polling cause of the senate race which has tightened (if the Dems somehow win this seat then they've not only gotten 60 but maybe 61-2) and it is just far more favorable to the GOP.

This isn't big news, and this is Texas, but we're also seeing record turnout figures across the state in early voting and I promise you that is not due to GOP enthusiasm but the opposite. This a good indicator that 3 main Obama groups are turning out and they're turning out in force. Hispanics, Blacks, and the Youth are all going to break records as far as turnout in this election and because Obama does so well with these groups any underestimation of their numbers by a poll really starts to skew the numbers torward Obama.

I actually think this phenomenon is going to be present across the country and the early voting numbers coupled with the comments I keep reading about the status of the GOTV campaigns and ground games just reinforces my thinking in this regard.

[Nbadan]

Its not as outlandish as people think and here's my reasoning. The polling I've seen is skewed pretty heavily to a republican angle and its only about a 10 point lead with a lot of undecideds. There is a bit of polling cause of the senate race which has tightened (if the Dems somehow win this seat then they've not only gotten 60 but maybe 61-2) and it is just far more favorable to the GOP.

This isn't big news, and this is Texas, but we're also seeing record turnout figures across the state in early voting and I promise you that is not due to GOP enthusiasm but the opposite. This a good indicator that 3 main Obama groups are turning out and they're turning out in force. Hispanics, Blacks, and the Youth are all going to break records as far as turnout in this election and because Obama does so well with these groups any underestimation of their numbers by a poll really starts to skew the numbers torward Obama.

I actually think this phenomenon is going to be present across the country and the early voting numbers coupled with the comments I keep reading about the status of the GOTV campaigns and ground games just reinforces my thinking in this regard.

I think your right, but after 00 and 04 I can't help but worry about GOP voter suppression and massive e-voting fraud...e-voting problems are already happening and the GOP has set the stage to help justify massive voter suppression with the whole ACORN registration problems...despite the massive leads in the polls and what will be a sizeable lead in the exit polls on Nov 4th, I will be breathing a sigh of relief when Obama pulls it out...

[Kamala]

I believe McCain will win. Bradley effect, corruption, and a stupid electorate are in his favor.

[Nbadan]

I believe McCain will win. Bradley effect, corruption, and a stupid electorate are in his favor.

God help this country..

[Mr. Peabody]

Wait are we talking a mini-Obama or the real size?

mini Obama 550 EV
McCain (-12) EV

No, really -

Obama - 300-320 EV
McCain - 218-238 EV

Obama wins 52%-47% over McCain in popular vote.

[florige]

^ I'm taking a personal day on November 5th. Either crying and masturbating at the same time, or deliriously happy.

Man if this goes into Wed, I'm going to totally lose my faith in ALL polls.... (well unless of course Obama is caught jacking it in a gay club or something between now and the 3rd. And even then, lol)

[TheMadHatter]

If early voting is any indication of the Democratic turnout this year the Republicans are dead in the water.

Thus far, in the battleground states where early voting has started the Democrats are posting historical record numbers. I really believe as the GOP continues to get more and more desperate it will have a net negative effect and not only turn off Republican voters and keep them from voting McCain but will energize Democrats into voting for Obama.

Obama landslide, it could get MUCH worse for McCain depending on how low he wants to go from here on out.