lurker23
01-14-2009, 06:23 PM
So, I was looking at the ESPN rookie rankings earlier today ( Here for those interested (http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/players/rookies/rankings?season=2009&action=login&appRedirect=http%3a%2f%2finsider.espn.go.com%2fnba %2fplayers%2frookies%2frankings%3fseason%3d2009) ), when I noticed that George Hill was at #14, behind (among others) Mario Chalmers. I thought to myself, "What would George do if he had the kind of playing time that Chalmers has?" Obviously one could easily interpolate Hill's per minute averages and put it toward another players MPG and get an idea. However, I decided to dig just a little deeper.
This year, George has had two types of games: ones where he was a starter or key reserve and got solid playing time, and ones where he was strictly a backup and (quite frankly) hasn't had enough time on the court to really get into a groove offensively. So, with the help of basketball-reference.com and a spreadsheet, I decided to try to separate out these two kinds of games, with 15 minutes played being a decent cutoff.
When playing 15 minutes per game or less:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/fc/pgl_finder.cgi?request=1&player=hillge01&match=game&year_min=2009&year_max=2009&age_min=0&age_max=99&team_id=&opp_id=&game_location=&game_result=&is_starter=&pos=&c1stat=mp&c1comp=lt&c1val=15&c2stat=&c2comp=gt&c2val=&c3stat=&c3comp=gt&c3val=&c4stat=&c4comp=gt&c4val=&order_by=pts
Games: 13
Total minutes: 143
Total points: 38
Points per minute: 0.27
When playing 16 minutes or more:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/fc/pgl_finder.cgi?request=1&player=hillge01&match=game&year_min=2009&year_max=2009&age_min=0&age_max=99&team_id=&opp_id=&game_location=&game_result=&is_starter=&pos=&c1stat=mp&c1comp=gt&c1val=16&c2stat=&c2comp=gt&c2val=&c3stat=&c3comp=gt&c3val=&c4stat=&c4comp=gt&c4val=&order_by=pts
Games: 21
Total minutes: 500
Total points: 224
Points per minute: 0.45
Obviously there are a lot of confounding variables in this data, including the fact that the sample size of the latter group is larger, and that if Hill is hot, Pop will keep playing him (and will bench him if he's cold). Nonetheless, I think it's safe to say that as far as points scored goes, George Hill is much more effective when he gets a steady dose of minutes played.
This year, George has had two types of games: ones where he was a starter or key reserve and got solid playing time, and ones where he was strictly a backup and (quite frankly) hasn't had enough time on the court to really get into a groove offensively. So, with the help of basketball-reference.com and a spreadsheet, I decided to try to separate out these two kinds of games, with 15 minutes played being a decent cutoff.
When playing 15 minutes per game or less:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/fc/pgl_finder.cgi?request=1&player=hillge01&match=game&year_min=2009&year_max=2009&age_min=0&age_max=99&team_id=&opp_id=&game_location=&game_result=&is_starter=&pos=&c1stat=mp&c1comp=lt&c1val=15&c2stat=&c2comp=gt&c2val=&c3stat=&c3comp=gt&c3val=&c4stat=&c4comp=gt&c4val=&order_by=pts
Games: 13
Total minutes: 143
Total points: 38
Points per minute: 0.27
When playing 16 minutes or more:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/fc/pgl_finder.cgi?request=1&player=hillge01&match=game&year_min=2009&year_max=2009&age_min=0&age_max=99&team_id=&opp_id=&game_location=&game_result=&is_starter=&pos=&c1stat=mp&c1comp=gt&c1val=16&c2stat=&c2comp=gt&c2val=&c3stat=&c3comp=gt&c3val=&c4stat=&c4comp=gt&c4val=&order_by=pts
Games: 21
Total minutes: 500
Total points: 224
Points per minute: 0.45
Obviously there are a lot of confounding variables in this data, including the fact that the sample size of the latter group is larger, and that if Hill is hot, Pop will keep playing him (and will bench him if he's cold). Nonetheless, I think it's safe to say that as far as points scored goes, George Hill is much more effective when he gets a steady dose of minutes played.