George Hill PPM: Brief number crunching

[lurker23]

So, I was looking at the ESPN rookie rankings earlier today ( Here for those interested ), when I noticed that George Hill was at #14, behind (among others) Mario Chalmers. I thought to myself, "What would George do if he had the kind of playing time that Chalmers has?" Obviously one could easily interpolate Hill's per minute averages and put it toward another players MPG and get an idea. However, I decided to dig just a little deeper.

This year, George has had two types of games: ones where he was a starter or key reserve and got solid playing time, and ones where he was strictly a backup and (quite frankly) hasn't had enough time on the court to really get into a groove offensively. So, with the help of basketball-reference.com and a spreadsheet, I decided to try to separate out these two kinds of games, with 15 minutes played being a decent cutoff.

When playing 15 minutes per game or less:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/...=&order_by=pts
Games: 13
Total minutes: 143
Total points: 38
Points per minute: 0.27

When playing 16 minutes or more:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/...=&order_by=pts
Games: 21
Total minutes: 500
Total points: 224
Points per minute: 0.45


Obviously there are a lot of confounding variables in this data, including the fact that the sample size of the latter group is larger, and that if Hill is hot, Pop will keep playing him (and will bench him if he's cold). Nonetheless, I think it's safe to say that as far as points scored goes, George Hill is much more effective when he gets a steady dose of minutes played.

[HarlemHeat37]

I have no doubt that George is better than a lot of rookies that are getting more minutes and have a larger role than him..

if Chalmers or Westbrook play poorly, their coach isn't going to pull them..also, neither guy plays behind a top 3 PG in the NBA..

Hill proved his worth while Parker and Manu were out..

he's easily one of the top 3 steals of the draft off the top of my head..

[Solid D]

As you know, points are only one statistical measurement for a lead guard. The Spurs' most effective 5-man unit this year, so far?
Top Five-Man Floor Units
Unit______________________Min Off Def +/- W L Win%

Hill-Mason-Finley-Bonner-Duncan 37 1.36 0.93 +31 8 2 80.0

[lurker23]

Interesting that in Hill's first game after I post this thread, he has his first double-digit game in less than 16 minutes played, scoring 10 points in 14:28. I think the key for Hill against the Lakers was the fact that Pop basically used him in two long stretches of about 7 minutes each, so he was able to get in more of a rhythm than say 3 stretches of 5 minutes.

[raspsa]

What are your expectations of George Hill? Now that I've seen him play, I\m hoping that he continues to develop as a PG.. ideally, he could turn into something like a Dennis Johnson, a great defensive PG who could also score in the clutch.. at the worst, he might turn out to be another Lindsey Hunter with his long arms and tenacious defense.

[timvp]

Nice work

I'm hoping Pop soon gets full confidence in Hill. Right now he's seems to be about 85% confident in him ... but he'll still bench him in the second half for poor play. I think Pop should virtually always stick with him no matter what. Benching Hill right now would only stunt his growth.

Parker usually goes through a stretch in the regular season where he tires easily and just loses his legs. Hopefully this year Pop recognizes when Parker is going through that stretch and ups Hill's minutes. Even a 30/18 split of minutes between Parker/Hill would be worth doing until Parker gets his second wind.

Oh and it's a good sign Hill came to play against the Lakers. He should really help level the athleticism disadvantage, especially once Farmar returns.

[Spurminator]

Hill made a couple of careless turnovers last night but Pop stuck with him, and beyond those few mistakes he had a solid game. I can see Pop's confidence in Hill growing, and I can see Hill's confidence growing with Pop's.

[mrspurs]

Looks like Hill was brought in to be a backup. And Mario was brought in take over an NBA team. If Hill would be asked to be a starter in this league. Noone knows how he would do.

[urunobili]

Hill made a couple of careless turnovers last night but Pop stuck with him, and beyond those few mistakes he had a solid game. I can see Pop's confidence in Hill growing, and I can see Hill's confidence growing with Pop's.

He got the ball right back when he lost the ball to Ariza... so one of them he immediately compensate for it