Stock market tanking

[RandomGuy]

LOL @ everyone parroting the 21% figure. Nothing annoys me more at the moment than acting as though the financial crisis started in January. How much is it off from its peak and when was its peak again? how much did it lose in actual value as opposed to percentage. Which is greater?

The fact is there was good news today CC. It doesn't mean that the worst is behind us, but good news is good news. You seem to be doing your best to disregard it.

But, but, but if it goes down it is Obama's fault and if it goes up it is the power of the free market at work... :rolleyes

[smeagol]

Of course it was a bounce, and a nice bounce at that. 5.8% is nothing to sneeze at, but after dropping 21% since Obama was inaugurated I wouldn't exactly bet the farm that we are suddenly a bull market.

Even a dead cat can bounce if it falls far enough and fast enough.

You are better than this . . . (I think)

[DarkReign]

If you need any basic explanation of the short squeeze, there was a blog-style article posted by Winehole, (I think it was him) about the porsche short squeeze.

here is another:
http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/10/30/business/norris31.php

RG = The Man

:tu

[Marcus Bryant]

Market bounces due to good news from Citi (never mind the writedown in Q4 apparently and the fact it's a penny stock) as well as some signs of leadership from DC, albeit from Bernanke.

Whoever's to blame at this point, let's figure that out later. The bailout (nationalization, whatever) of AIG continues to look like a black hole and provides a neat trick to provide cover to the fact that the US taxpayer is, at this point, bailing out foreign counterparties, as well as Goldman (surprise, surprise) and BofA, among others. As far as the funny money printing in DC goes, AIG seems to be the final determinant in how much longer that will continue.

[CavsSuperFan]

Are we missing out on a tremendous buy & hold opportunity? The markets have sustained a brisk rally & are approaching 7000... Citi Bank is posting profits, GE has rebounded, Ford has re worked their contracts…Is now the time to invest in equities? :wow

[smeagol]

Are we missing out on a tremendous buy & hold opportunity? The markets have sustained a brisk rally & are approaching 7000... Citi Bank is posting profits, GE has rebounded, Ford has re worked their contracts…Is now the time to invest in equities? :wow

Only if you are prepared to live with the volatility and see you investment go down in value 20 - 30% in the short term.

In the long term, this is a buying opportunity.

[CosmicCowboy]

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_RHwzqq5yGy0/SUA9_MVhkXI/AAAAAAAAAMs/Y-OERDFtAHE/s400/Dead+Cat+Bounce+2008.JPG

[RandomGuy]

Are we missing out on a tremendous buy & hold opportunity? The markets have sustained a brisk rally & are approaching 7000... Citi Bank is posting profits, GE has rebounded, Ford has re worked their contracts…Is now the time to invest in equities? :wow

That is the problem with trying to time the market.

You never fully know when the down market will end, and stocks will rebound.

Better to simply go for the long term, invest in sound, well-managed companies, and not sweat swings like this. Buy in at regular intervals, and accept that you will lose some money in down markets, but the fact that you bought in down markets will give you more shares when the market finally turns around.

Dollar cost averaging seems to me to be an excellent idea/strategy/concept.

Brief primer:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dollar_cost_averaging

More links:
http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&q=dollar+cost+averaging&btnG=Search

A quickie about the pros and cons:
http://cashmoneylife.com/2008/10/08/dollar-cost-averaging-pros-and-cons/

[smeagol]

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_RHwzqq5yGy0/SUA9_MVhkXI/AAAAAAAAAMs/Y-OERDFtAHE/s400/Dead+Cat+Bounce+2008.JPG

I agree.

This is nothing but a short term bounce. With UBS announcing a record $18B loss and consumer confidence hitting a new low (just two of the most recent negative headlines), the market will continue to fall until there are clear indications the economy will be turning around in the future.

[RandomGuy]

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_RHwzqq5yGy0/SUA9_MVhkXI/AAAAAAAAAMs/Y-OERDFtAHE/s400/Dead+Cat+Bounce+2008.JPG

http://media.economist.com/images/na/2009w11/CFO.jpg

CFO optimism index
Dead-cat bounce?
Mar 11th 2009
From Economist.com

Chief financial officers around the world are a bit less gloomy


GLIMMER of recovery or a dead-cat bounce? Confidence in economic prospects has picked up slightly among chief financial officers around the world—although pessimists still far outnumber optimists. This is according to the latest quarterly poll of over 1,000 CFOs, conducted in late February by Duke University in America, Tilburg University in the Netherlands and CFO, a sister publication to The Economist. But whereas finance chiefs may be marginally less dour than in previous quarters, they are continuing to slash earnings forecasts and are speeding up plans for layoffs and spending cuts. Most CFOs in America, Europe and Asia expect to freeze hiring and wages over the next 12 months.

------------------

Personally, I would not even begin to want to speculate about where it is going in a week.

[CavsSuperFan]

The "dead cat" just bounced past 7000...

[monosylab1k]

I'm no expert on any of this, but it IS kinda funny how CC only shows up in this thread when the market is going south.

[CosmicCowboy]

I'm here. I'm glad to see the market bounce. It's better than it continuing to go straight down.

The fact that the bounce has lasted for three days does not mean that it's still not just a dead cat bounce.

If you really think that the markets are that great I suggest you put your money where your mouth is and then check back in a month.

[TDMVPDPOY]

man was hoping for the market to tank so i can use me dividends on DRP....fkn market has been good for last couple of days...still holding on...

[RandomGuy]

I'm here. I'm glad to see the market bounce. It's better than it continuing to go straight down.

The fact that the bounce has lasted for three days does not mean that it's still not just a dead cat bounce.

If you really think that the markets are that great I suggest you put your money where your mouth is and then check back in a month.

No way man. The market is giving us its judgment on Obama's policies, remember?

Investors must really like what he is doing, and think it will be enourmously effective.

If Republicans want to hand their hat on the "the market is ONLY tanking because of Obama's policies", then when the market goes up they give the Democrats the "the market ONLY went up because of Obama's policies."

The actual truth that what the president does has not a whole lot of impact on the state of the economy, and any real impact takes years to be felt, is irrelevant.

[DarkReign]

The actual truth that what the president does has not a whole lot of impact on the state of the economy, and any real impact takes years to be felt, is irrelevant.

Thats what I always thought, anyway. The President only controls the surplus/balance/deficit of the Federal government directly.

He can indirectly influence the economy by policy, proposed legislation and cabinet appointments, but I never thought less than 90 days was enough to judge accordingly or, the most absurd, lay blame.

[CosmicCowboy]

You guys just keep 69ing each other and pretend that politics don't affect the markets.

Actually, I heard the best financial news today that I have heard in weeks. The premier of China came out today and very subtly but obviously warned Obama to not devalue the dollar through reckless spending (with the implied "or else we will quit buying your bonds")

He might be able to ignore the Republicans in Congress but he would be ill advised to ignore China.

[clambake]

now he's pandering to china while throwing in some homophobic innuendo.

[CosmicCowboy]

As I have told you previously I am not a homophobe. I fully support your right to (paraphrasing B2b) take a nice stiff supple meaty lubed up cock up your ass.

[RandomGuy]

You guys just keep 69ing each other and pretend that politics don't affect the markets.

Actually, I heard the best financial news today that I have heard in weeks. The premier of China came out today and very subtly but obviously warned Obama to not devalue the dollar through reckless spending (with the implied "or else we will quit buying your bonds")

He might be able to ignore the Republicans in Congress but he would be ill advised to ignore China.

Strawman, spin, repeat. Conservatives seem to take their debate strategies from shampoo instructions, i.e. lather, rinse, repeat.

I would never say that politics don't really effect markets. That is silly.

I will say day-to-day swings are not really good indicators of effective policy. THAT is reaaally silly.

You distorted my ultimate position in an attempt to dismiss it, i.e. strawman fallacy, then commit a further logical fallacy, the post hoc fallacy.


The post hoc ergo propter hoc (after this therefore because of this) fallacy is based upon the mistaken notion that simply because one thing happens after another, the first event was a cause of the second event. Post hoc reasoning is the basis for many superstitions and erroneous beliefs. http://skepdic.com/posthoc.html

The only thing you can logically prove in this case is order of time, you have absolutely zero proof of causality, any more than I had when I sarcastically claimed that Obama is doing something great because of what the markets are doing.

[RandomGuy]

Don't Believe Everything You Think: The 6 Basic Mistakes We Make in Thinking (Paperback)

Product Description
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[RandomGuy]

I do bookkeeping for an older couple who have managed to accumulate a fair amount of wealth.

They were invited to a rather exclusive seminar given by Ken Fischer of Fischer investments. Valuing my insight and expertise, they asked me to come along as their guest.

Since the seminar was in the middle of the election season, one of the questions that came up was "What do I do with my money if X gets elected?"

Fischer has spent some time as a political analsyst (if my memory is correct), and brought up an interesting graphic showing market performances during each year of each president for the last 100 years or so, excluding the outlier of the Great Depression, which tended to skew the average performance rather unfavorably away from Republicans.

He showed a VERY consistant trend in market performance. In the first year of Democratic presidencies, the market tended to be down a bit more than in Republican presidencies. In the second year of Democratic presidencies, that downturn was more than made up for in the second year, and there was no statisctically signficant difference between Republican presidents overall and Democratic presidents overall.

His analysis was that a lot of investors seemed to believe that Democrats were bad for investors, and pulled their money out, then realized that there wasn't really a difference in overall business environments and put their money back into the market in the second year.

You might be confident in your confirmation bias, but what I know of the actual data contradicts your theory, and suggests that there is not really that much difference between the two parties as some, apparently including yourself, Cosmic, would want to believe.

[CosmicCowboy]

You might be confident in your confirmation bias, but what I know of the actual data contradicts your theory, and suggests that there is not really that much difference between the two parties as some, apparently including yourself, Cosmic, would want to believe.

Unfortunately you are correct that there is little difference between the two parties these days when it comes to spending. They both suck. Fiscal conservatism is dead and buried. At the same time, if you really think that Obama's socialist nanny state vision is going to be good for the economy long term I want some of what you are smoking.

[clambake]

we get it, roy. you're just looking for a safe place to land.

[CubanMustGo]

I agree.

This is nothing but a short term bounce. With UBS announcing a record $18B loss and consumer confidence hitting a new low (just two of the most recent negative headlines), the market will continue to fall until there are clear indications the economy will be turning around in the future.


NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. consumers' mood improved unexpectedly in March as confidence in government economic policy improved, but sentiment remained anemic overall and close to a record low, a survey showed on Friday.

It's all about confidence, with that I agree. The thing's just as likely to drop 500 points next week as it is to go up.

The financial people are turned on by the possibility of
- changing the accounting rules so they don't have to massively write down investments to reflect real actual value, and
- the stock market change that will make short selling (in bulk) harder.

If those two things don't happen you can expect the market to lose all this week's gains and then some.

The funny thing is everyone is talking about this "three day gain" when the Dow eeked out a stastically insignificant 5 point gain on Wednesday. I guess when the market hadn't gone up 2 days in row for over a month, you take what you can get ...

[RandomGuy]

Unfortunately you are correct that there is little difference between the two parties these days when it comes to spending. They both suck. Fiscal conservatism is dead and buried. At the same time, if you really think that Obama's socialist nanny state vision is going to be good for the economy long term I want some of what you are smoking.

Every Democratic president that I know of was called a socialist by the right.

EVERY one.

Never has happened yet, despite the noises from the right about it.

You underestimate the moderate Democrats, as most conservatives are wont to do.

Think of it this way:

You have a three person group of voters who decide issues, A, B, and C.

A and C always vote in the completely opposite manner.

Where does the real power to decide an issue lie in this case?

[CavsSuperFan]

Nouriel Roubini's personal investment strategy is to follow Cosmic’s advice…

Dear investors, do enjoy this dead cat bounce and bear market sucker’s rally ... don’t wait too long until you jump ship while the financial Titanic hits the next financial iceberg: you may get squeezed and crashed in the rush to the lifeboats.

http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/208703/Roubini-Says-Rally-Is-a-%22Dead-Cat-Bounce%22;_ylt=AgeLEqvQIPDxsZpo3atp2wq7YWsA?ticker s=%5Edji,%5Egspc

[clambake]

Nouriel Roubini's personal investment strategy is to follow Cosmic’s advice…

Dear investors, do enjoy this dead cat bounce and bear market sucker’s rally ... don’t wait too long until you jump ship while the financial Titanic hits the next financial iceberg: you may get squeezed and crashed in the rush to the lifeboats.

http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/208703/Roubini-Says-Rally-Is-a-%22Dead-Cat-Bounce%22;_ylt=AgeLEqvQIPDxsZpo3atp2wq7YWsA?ticker s=%5Edji,%5Egspc

i haven't heard anyone say that the market has recovered. it would be foolish to think that it has.

it's still a good time to invest if you go long.

[peewee's lovechild]

http://money.cnn.com/2009/03/16/markets/markets_newyork/index.htm?postversion=2009031610


Dow stretches rally to day 5


Financial shares lead the latest advance, but tech weakness limits the Nasdaq's gains.

By Alexandra Twin, CNNMoney.com senior writer
Last Updated: March 16, 2009: 2:13 PM ET


NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- The Dow surged Monday afternoon, stretching its recent run to a fifth straight session thanks to a rally in bank shares and some upbeat comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) added 130 points, or 1.8%, with under 2 hours left in the session. The S&P 500 (SPX) index added 13 points, or 1.8%. The Nasdaq composite (COMP) was little changed, with weakness in technology shares keeping it from gaining with the broader market.

Stocks rallied last week, bouncing back after the Dow and S&P 500 hit 12-year lows. The week was Wall Street's best since last November, with the Dow gaining 9%, the S&P 500 gaining 10.7% and the Nasdaq adding 10.6%.

Bernanke's comments and news from the bank sector helped Monday, but stocks were also just continuing to rebound off the lows, said John Forelli, portfolio manager at Independence Investments.

"Sentiment was really negative a week ago, and so each day the market goes up, the sentiment improves," he said.

Forelli said the advance could continue in the short run if investors are able to gain confidence that the economy is in the healing process. Yet, the run is bound to hit some speed bumps when quarterly results start pouring in next month.

"If you thought the fourth-quarter earnings were bad, get ready for the first quarter," he said.

[peewee's lovechild]

I threw a dead cat from my roof last week. The fucker didn't bounce.

Well, it came off the ground like 1/16 of an inch, but that's hardly a bounce.

This cat people around here are talking about is unlike any cat I've ever seen.

[Viva Las Espuelas]

The recession is over!!!!!! Go and charge, charge, charge!!!!!!!!!

[peewee's lovechild]

The recession is over!!!!!! Go and charge, charge, charge!!!!!!!!!

:lmao

Damn, you're still that asshurt that McCain lost?

[Viva Las Espuelas]

:lmao

Damn, you're still that asshurt that McCain lost?
no. i really don't have faith in government at all anymore. what's funny is you do. nice try dewey decimal boy.

[JoeChalupa]

:lmao

Damn, you're still that asshurt that McCain lost?

:lmao

[peewee's lovechild]

no. i really don't have faith in government at all anymore. what's funny is you do. nice try dewey decimal boy.

:lmao:lmao:lmao

Viva = "I'm going to try and save face now that I know McCain doesn't stand a chance and say that I'm going to vote for Bob Barr."

:lmao:lmao:lmao

If you really don't have faith in the government, then shut the fuck up and don't post on any one of these threads anymore.

Because, if you REALLY don't care, you wouldn't even be looking into threads like these.

:lmao:lmao

Bob Barr!!!

[MannyIsGod]

When you realize that Viva is among the most bitter, small, and pitiful human beings you'll encounter, you learn to deal with his posts with a lot more pity than anger.

[Viva Las Espuelas]

When you realize that Viva is among the most bitter, small, and pitiful human beings you'll encounteryou're sadly wrong, clyde.

[Viva Las Espuelas]

:lmao:lmao:lmao

Viva = "I'm going to try and save face now that I know McCain doesn't stand a chance and say that I'm going to vote for Bob Barr."

:lmao:lmao:lmao

If you really don't have faith in the government, then shut the fuck up and don't post on any one of these threads anymore.

Because, if you REALLY don't care, you wouldn't even be looking into threads like these.

:lmao:lmao

Bob Barr!!!
speak louder and bigger. use more icons also. it makes it appear that i'm losing this argument even more.

[MannyIsGod]

you're sadly wrong, clyde.


Of course I am. :toast

[peewee's lovechild]

speak louder and bigger. use more icons also. it makes it appear that i'm losing this argument even more.

:lmao:lmao:lmao

Bob Barr!!

LOL at you stating that you even have an arguement!

What's you're argument?
Go ahead, make it.

[Viva Las Espuelas]

When you realize that Viva is among the most bitter, small, and pitiful human beings you'll encounter, you learn to deal with his posts with a lot more pity than anger.
......oh, and pitiful? i seem to recall a pretty butt hurt posting of you whining like a chimp in the middle of a banana famine about you being dumped. laughable.

[peewee's lovechild]

speak louder and bigger. use more icons also. it makes it appear that i'm losing this argument even more.


Hey, stupid fuck.

"speak louder and bigger"?

Check out this little nugget that started the back and forth:



The recession is over!!!!!! Go and charge, charge, charge!!!!!!!!!


:lmao:lmao:lmao

You are such a stupid ass!!

BOB BARR!!!!

[MannyIsGod]

......oh, and pitiful? i seem to recall a pretty butt hurt posting of you whining like a chimp in the middle of a banana famine about you being dumped. laughable.

Who are you trying to convince, me or yourself?

[clambake]

banana smack means you've run out of smack.

[Viva Las Espuelas]

Who are you trying to convince, me or yourself?
the proof is in the banana pudding.

[smeagol]

Citi went from $1 to $2.20 in four days :wow

[smeagol]

Citi went from $1 to $2.20 in four days :wow

Closed at $3.08 after bottoming at ninety-something cents some days ago . . .

The market is putting on a nice rally. Indices are up more than 12% since they hit the bottom.

CC, I think Obama must be doing something right. :lol

But all kidding aside, the economic woes are far from over and this market will turn around for the worse, probably in early April, when 1Q results become available, as weel as 1Q economic data, both of which are going to be bad.

I would be careful about jumping into the market just yet. There might be another 5 - 7% of upside, but I have no doubt we will hit the recent lows in the coming months . . .

[Das Texan]

This is one ridiculous dead cat.

[peewee's lovechild]

This is one ridiculous dead cat.

It's a dead cow bounce.

[CosmicCowboy]

Oh well...another week, another trillion dollars. "The Fed buying Treasuries" is a polite way of saying "printing money". It may make the market giddy short term but is cancerous long term.

[smeagol]

Damn, this cat can really bounce :lol

In any case, I still believe we are not out of the woods by any stretch of the imagination. We migt have some more upside, but I have a feeling we will test the lows in the Dow and the S&P in the coming months . . .

[CosmicCowboy]

Damn, this cat can really bounce :lol

In any case, I still believe we are not out of the woods by any stretch of the imagination. We migt have some more upside, but I have a feeling we will test the lows in the Dow and the S&P in the coming months . . .

You realize that Obama just announced today that he is throwing ANOTHER TRILLION TAX DOLLARS towards buying bad bank assets? On top of all the OTHER TRILLIONS he has already announced? Hell yeah bank stocks went up.

This is absolute fucking insanity.

[MannyIsGod]

Damned if you do, Damned if you don't. Fuck putting out the fire because we'll go thirsty tomorrow. We should just burn today.

K.

(for the record, I'm not a huge fan of the plan today, but CC acting as though this is new money when everyone and their mother knew something of this sort was coming is laughable.)

[MannyIsGod]

And yeah - this dead cat is really bouncing.

[CosmicCowboy]

Damned if you do, Damned if you don't. Fuck putting out the fire because we'll go thirsty tomorrow. We should just burn today.

K.

(for the record, I'm not a huge fan of the plan today, but CC acting as though this is new money when everyone and their mother knew something of this sort was coming is laughable.)

Damn Manny...Obama could rape your sister and you would tell her it was her fault for dressing slutty.

Over stimulating the economy to be popular and look like "you care" and are "doing something" is not worth destroying the US currency and the "full faith and credit" of the Federal government.

The whole city burns down then, not just the random house.

[clambake]

he's trying to avoid gigantic amounts of unemployment.

[MannyIsGod]

Damn Manny...Obama could rape your sister and you would tell her it was her fault for dressing slutty.

Over stimulating the economy to be popular and look like "you care" and are "doing something" is not worth destroying the US currency and the "full faith and credit" of the Federal government.

The whole city burns down then, not just the random house.

Sure dude, inflation is the biggest worry right now. Sure dude. Dead cat bounce, inflation, anymore words of wisdom?

And :lol @ destroying US currency. ZOMG MY DOLLAR IS WORTHLESS.

You know, when you make statements like this it just makes you look stupid when it doesn't pan out. Even the biggest critics of what is being done right now don't say shit like "he's destroying the US currency" because its so out of touch with reality. Good job bud.

[clambake]

but i thought the daily tracking of the dow was the smell test of how good the president is?

[MannyIsGod]

Oh and for the record, I wasn't defending Obama CC. I was pointing out how stupid YOU were being. I think the plan - whether it works or not - is a ridiculous fucking way of making rich people richer while the taxpayer is the one in the line of fire. But to act as if inflation is what we're worried about at the moment is fucking retarded.

[clambake]

if the plan works, then both sides make money and unemployment won't shellshock the country.

[TDMVPDPOY]

if the plan works, then both sides make money and unemployment won't shellshock the country.

what fkn plan are you talkin about? all USAG and obama is doing printing more money and shit pouring it onto the stock exchange...

let me tell you something your currency value is worth nothing if obama continues to print money without gold reserves to back that shit up....US currency will not be a trade commodity in the future since alot of euro/arab countries will start dumping US Currency for trade and switch to the euro.

[Das Texan]

all i know is that this must be a dead cat from some other universe. No dead cat from this universe would bounce like this.

[mrcoon29]

what fkn plan are you talkin about? all USAG and obama is doing printing more money and shit pouring it onto the stock exchange...

let me tell you something your currency value is worth nothing if obama continues to print money without gold reserves to back that shit up....US currency will not be a trade commodity in the future since alot of euro/arab countries will start dumping US Currency for trade and switch to the euro.

When did the US go back to backing our money with gold?

BTW, the US backs printing it money with HOPE - the Obama campaign liturgy.

[smeagol]

What is the alternative to pouring money into the credit markets to thaw them (aside from destroying the financial industry by letting every major bank fail, and going back to bartering as the prefered means for commerce)?

[TDMVPDPOY]

What is the alternative to pouring money into the credit markets to thaw them (aside from destroying the financial industry by letting every major bank fail, and going back to bartering as the prefered means for commerce)?

you know where the money is if you want credit, but cant access it....or wont lend it to the banks cause they fuckd it up for everyone....401K and superfunds, they have alot of money but doing nothing atm....then again trustees have too look out for its members.

[clambake]

thats kinda the point. make this money accessible.

[TDMVPDPOY]

http://img19.imageshack.us/img19/6078/poster17721363.jpg

[MrChug]

Rebounded today...closed well.

[timvp]

:smokin

[smeagol]

you know where the money is if you want credit, but cant access it....or wont lend it to the banks cause they fuckd it up for everyone....401K and superfunds, they have alot of money but doing nothing atm....then again trustees have too look out for its members.

You might as well have written "mumble . . . mumble . . . mumble".

It would've been the same . . .

[smeagol]

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aCvWs8KIIsUo&refer=home

Roubini Says Stocks Will Drop as Banks Go ‘Belly Up’ (Update1)


By Michael Patterson and Simon Kennedy

March 26 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks will fall and the government will nationalize more banks as the economy contracts through the end of 2009, said Nouriel Roubini, the New York University professor who predicted last year’s economic crisis.

“The stock market is a bit ahead of the real macroeconomic and financial news,” Roubini, a professor at NYU’s Stern School of Business and the chairman of consulting firm Roubini Global Economics, said in an interview with Bloomberg Television in London today. “We’ll have some major banks going belly up that will need to be taken over.”

The global equity rebound in March that sent the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index to its best monthly advance in 17 years is a “bear-market rally” (or dead cat Bounce, as CC put it) and U.S. Treasury yields will “remain relatively low” as investors flock to the safest assets, Roubini said. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner’s new plan to remove toxic debt from financial companies won’t be enough for insolvent banks, he said.

Roubini’s outlook contrasts with predictions this week from Templeton Asset Management Ltd.’s Mark Mobius and Traxis Partners LLC’s Barton Biggs, who said that equities are poised to rally as government efforts to revive the economy and banking system begin to work (who should I believe, Mobius or Roubini? . . . I think I'm going with the professor) . Investors are “way too optimistic” about the prospects for a recovery in the economy and earnings, Roubini said.

The S&P 500 surged 7.1 percent on March 23 after Geithner unveiled a plan to finance as much as $1 trillion in purchases of illiquid real-estate assets, using $75 billion to $100 billion of the Treasury’s remaining bank-rescue funds. The government is conducting stress tests of banks to determine how much more capital each will need.

Stress Tests

Roubini said the stress tests will reveal that some banks need to be taken over and have their good and bad assets separated before being sold to the private sector. He estimates loan and securities losses in the U.S. will reach $3.6 trillion.

Critics of Geithner’s plan including Nobel laureate Paul Krugman, a professor at Princeton University, say the government should take over banks loaded with devalued assets, remove their top management, and dispose of the toxic securities. Sweden adopted the temporary nationalization approach in the 1990s.

“Some banks are going to have to be nationalized,” said Roubini. “It’s going to be bumpy ahead of us.”

Geithner and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke this week called for new powers to take over and wind down failing financial companies. They said the U.S. also needs stronger regulation to constrain the risks taken by firms that could endanger the financial system.

‘Deflationary Forces’

With “deflationary forces” lingering for as long as three years, Roubini said U.S. government bond yields will remain low and American house prices will fall as much as 20 percent in the next 18 months. While the dollar will initially benefit as investors seek a safe haven in the U.S., the currency will ultimately drop as the country’s trade deficit shrinks, he said.

Mobius, who helps oversee about $20 billion of emerging- market assets as executive chairman at San Mateo, California- based Templeton, said March 23 the next “bull-market” rally has begun. Biggs, the former chief global strategist for Morgan Stanley who now runs New York-based hedge fund Traxis Partners, predicted the same day the S&P 500 may jump between 30 percent and 50 percent.

The benchmark index for U.S. equities has surged 11 percent in March, poised for its biggest monthly gain since 1991. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index of equities in 23 developing nations is headed for the steepest monthly advance on record after rising 20 percent in March.

[TDMVPDPOY]

fuck the banks

when the economy was booming they had good rates for deposits, and even during the recession rates were still about 7-8% for deposits, online accounts were 5%.....
now they are trying to get ppl to spend the money instead of saving it, so they lowered the rates to 1.5%-3% for most deposits in my country...

i aint spending any money to bail out any kent whose not spending money that trickles down in my field....

[RandomGuy]

Wall Street rebounds on last day of the quarter


NEW YORK – Wall Street ended a tumultuous March on a high note, managing its first winning month this year and its best monthly performance in nearly seven years.

Stocks finished off their earlier highs on Tuesday but resumed a three-week rally that has brought the Dow Jones industrials up a total of 16 percent since hitting their lowest level in 12 years on March 9.

The Dow rose 7.7 percent overall in March, its biggest monthly gain since October 2002.

Technology and financial shares led the rally as large investors loaded up on rising stocks in order to report strong holdings at the end of the first quarter, which ended on Tuesday.

Investors shrugged off lackluster economic data and snatched up some of the biggest names in technology and banking including Google Inc., International Business Machines Corp., Bank of America Corp. and Citigroup Inc.

The market is coming off a two-day pullback as stocks took a breather from a recent surge driven by optimism that U.S. banks may be emerging from the worst of a lending crisis.

The government finally delivered details last week of its plans to take failed loans off the books of struggling banks and leaders of several large banks have said they did well in January and February.

Financial services companies are likely to get another dose of good news later this week. The Financial Accounting Standards Board is widely expected to ease accounting rules that require companies to list their assets at current market values.

Banks have had to take massive write-downs over the past two years as the value of mortgage-backed securities and other investments has withered. Banks say a softening of the "mark-to-market" rules would help their bottom lines.

Keith Wirtz, president and chief investment officer at Fifth Third Asset Management in Cincinnati, said the gain in bank stocks on Tuesday was likely boosted by some short-covering in anticipation of a resolution on the rules, as traders don't want to miss out on a possible rally in financials later this week. Short covering, or the buying of stocks to cover bets that stocks would fall, has played a large role in the surge in bank stocks over the past few weeks.

According to preliminary calculations, the Dow Jones industrial average rose 86.90, or 1.2 percent, to 7,608.92, after earlier rising as much as 203 points. The Standard & Poor's 500 index gained 10.34, or 1.3 percent, to 797.87, while the technology-heavy Nasdaq composite index rose 26.79, or 1.8 percent, to 1,528.59.

The Dow, which broke a string of six monthly declines, is still down 13.3 percent for the year. The S&P 500 is down 11.7 percent, and the Nasdaq is down 3.1 percent.

In other trading Tuesday, the Russell 2000 index of smaller companies rose 6.78, or 1.6 percent, to 422.75.

Advancing issues outnumbered decliners by more than 3 to 1 on the New York Stock Exchange, where volume came to 1.64 billion shares.

The advance on Tuesday was also supported by "window dressing" buying as large investors not wanting to end the quarter with large amounts of cash loaded up on stocks they think have good prospects.

"Technology, of all the S&P sectors, is the only one that is up on the year," said Craig Peckham, an analyst at Jefferies & Co. "If you're going to try to window dress anywhere on the last day of the quarter, technology is a good place to start."

Technology shares got a lift Tuesday from a deal between The Walt Disney Co. and Google that will allow Google's video site YouTube to show short-form videos from Disney's ABC and ESPN networks. Disney shares rose 31 cents to $18.64, while Google gained $5.37 to $348.06...
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090331/ap_on_bi_st_ma_re/wall_street

[RandomGuy]

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aCvWs8KIIsUo&refer=home

Roubini Says Stocks Will Drop as Banks Go ‘Belly Up’ (Update1)


By Michael Patterson and Simon Kennedy

March 26 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks will fall and the government will nationalize more banks as the economy contracts through the end of 2009, said Nouriel Roubini, the New York University professor who predicted last year’s economic crisis.

“The stock market is a bit ahead of the real macroeconomic and financial news,” Roubini, a professor at NYU’s Stern School of Business and the chairman of consulting firm Roubini Global Economics, said in an interview with Bloomberg Television in London today. “We’ll have some major banks going belly up that will need to be taken over.”

The global equity rebound in March that sent the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index to its best monthly advance in 17 years is a “bear-market rally” (or dead cat Bounce, as CC put it) and U.S. Treasury yields will “remain relatively low” as investors flock to the safest assets, Roubini said. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner’s new plan to remove toxic debt from financial companies won’t be enough for insolvent banks, he said.

Roubini’s outlook contrasts with predictions this week from Templeton Asset Management Ltd.’s Mark Mobius and Traxis Partners LLC’s Barton Biggs, who said that equities are poised to rally as government efforts to revive the economy and banking system begin to work (who should I believe, Mobius or Roubini? . . . I think I'm going with the professor) . Investors are “way too optimistic” about the prospects for a recovery in the economy and earnings, Roubini said. .

The good professor may have predicted the initial nastiness, but don't think anyone truly has much of an idea how this will pan out 2 years down the road.

Personally, I think equities have been a bit oversold. Yeah, the economy is sucking wind, and probably will for a year or so, but there are still companies making profits, and still companies slogging on.

My gut says the professor is right that there are still things left to happen as the asset collapse unfolds, but it will not be a complete, Mad-Max meltdown.

Not that I wouldn't want to own the stock of bullet and gun manufacturers in the meantime.. heh.

[CosmicCowboy]

The good professor may have predicted the initial nastiness, but don't think anyone truly has much of an idea how this will pan out 2 years down the road.

Personally, I think equities have been a bit oversold. Yeah, the economy is sucking wind, and probably will for a year or so, but there are still companies making profits, and still companies slogging on.

My gut says the professor is right that there are still things left to happen as the asset collapse unfolds, but it will not be a complete, Mad-Max meltdown.

Not that I wouldn't want to own the stock of bullet and gun manufacturers in the meantime.. heh.

Obama has been very very good to gun and ammo manufacturers as people stocked up and emptied the shelves, but it hasn't been reflected in stock prices...everyone is still ultimately expecting draconian gun restrictions to come out of this administration despite the recent decision to delay going after the new assault weapon ban..

[exstatic]

Let me start by saying that I own and regularly shoot a firearm, and I have NO PROBLEM with a complete and total ban on assault weapons. WTF do you need an assault weapon for if you aren't USA/USMC infantry? Will someone please explain that one to me?

[peewee's lovechild]

Let me start by saying that I own and regularly shoot a firearm, and I have NO PROBLEM with a complete and total ban on assault weapons. WTF do you need an assault weapon for if you aren't USA/USMC infantry? Will someone please explain that one to me?

A-fucking-men.

Totally agree.

[smeagol]

A-fucking-men.

Totally agree.

Even though I thik you are a fucking moron, I agree with you and Ex.

[peewee's lovechild]

No comments on today's closing of the market?

No?

Anyone?

No mention of it hitting 8,000?


Hmmmm . . .



Anyway:

http://money.cnn.com/2009/04/02/markets/markets_newyork/index.htm?postversion=2009040210

[peewee's lovechild]

I have no idea why kids prefer bouncing rubber balls when obviously a dead cat is far superior to any rubber ball ever made in the world.

[CosmicCowboy]

No comments on today's closing of the market?

No?

Anyone?

No mention of it hitting 8,000?


Hmmmm . . .



Anyway:

http://money.cnn.com/2009/04/02/markets/markets_newyork/index.htm?postversion=2009040210

Oh, I've been watching it.

Obama should leave the country more often...:lol

[Viva Las Espuelas]

Let me start by saying that I own and regularly shoot a firearm, and I have NO PROBLEM with a complete and total ban on assault weapons. WTF do you need an assault weapon for if you aren't USA/USMC infantry? Will someone please explain that one to me?i guess you've never heard of the ol' give 'em an inch and they take a mile saying.

[CuckingFunt]

I have no idea why kids prefer bouncing rubber balls when obviously a dead cat is far superior to any rubber ball ever made in the world.

Have you ever seen a cat chase a bouncing rubber ball? It's one of the funniest things in the world.

I don't know how I'd feel about watching a cat chase a bouncing dead cat, though.

[Das Texan]

Suck on it bears.

[exstatic]

i guess you've never heard of the ol' give 'em an inch and they take a mile saying.

So drug dealers continue to get their weapons of choice. Nice.

To outlaw guns completely, the Constitution would have to be amended. They make that hard on purpose.

No law abiding citizen of this country need more than a couple of recreational and home protection sidearms, and some hunting rifles/shotguns. Only criminals and the NRA want people to have more than that.

[exstatic]

Oh, and the next bump in the stock market will be due to massive credit card writedowns. Defaults are almost to 9% of cardholders and another 6-7% of cardholders are in arears. We're not done here yet, folks.

[smeagol]

Lots of talk from so called experts that the worst of the crisis is over.

I still think the 2nd and 3 rd Q will be bad. We might see a bottom during one of those quarters. I still feel we will test the lows we saw earlier this month in the major indices.

[CosmicCowboy]

Oh, and the next bump in the stock market will be due to massive credit card writedowns. Defaults are almost to 9% of cardholders and another 6-7% of cardholders are in arears. We're not done here yet, folks.

Or commercial real estate. All these major anchor store closings across the country mean no rent and lost minor tenants which means major loan defaults.

Take your pick. This shit isn't over.

[peewee's lovechild]

Or commercial real estate. All these major anchor store closings across the country mean no rent and lost minor tenants which means major loan defaults.

Take your pick. This shit isn't over.


You see, if prostitution were legal, you could convert these empty stores into brothels and still get your rent money.

[smeagol]

Or commercial real estate. All these major anchor store closings across the country mean no rent and lost minor tenants which means major loan defaults.

Take your pick. This shit isn't over.

I still don't get what the stock market is goin on? Just fumes?

There are people out there (and I've seen plenty on Bloomberg TV) saying that this is the right time to step into the market and that the worst is behind us.

My feeling is that many investors simply want to believe this and take any opprotunity (the smallest piece good news) as a buyting opportunity.

[CosmicCowboy]

I still don't get what the stock market is goin on? Just fumes?

There are people out there (and I've seen plenty on Bloomberg TV) saying that this is the right time to step into the market and that the worst is behind us.

My feeling is that many investors simply want to believe this and take any opprotunity (the smallest piece good news) as a buyting opportunity.

I agree.

All the so called "experts" that never saw this shit coming now want to say "see, it's just a normal V shaped correction"...

[RandomGuy]

Or commercial real estate. All these major anchor store closings across the country mean no rent and lost minor tenants which means major loan defaults.

Take your pick. This shit isn't over.

I would agree.

I do think stocks have been somewhat oversold though.

I think we have at least another year or two of dead companies and losses.

[exstatic]

Or commercial real estate. All these major anchor store closings across the country mean no rent and lost minor tenants which means major loan defaults.

Take your pick. This shit isn't over.

I think CR will be a problem, but many of the legacy property owners can lower their rent prices to pre-boom rates to get tenants. They were making a killing, but that time is over. It's a better alternative than letting it sit empty, and may actually spur some small business growth.

That credit card shit, though...man. The fuse on that was lit when the bankruptcy laws were tightened, and the CC companies started giving cards to ANYONE, knowing they could probably only pay interest. That only works while the economy is up. I think they'll have no other option than to write it down. Bankruptcies are back to the levels before the rule changes, meaning people are REALLY in trouble.

[CubanMustGo]

I still don't get what the stock market is goin on? Just fumes?

There are people out there (and I've seen plenty on Bloomberg TV) saying that this is the right time to step into the market and that the worst is behind us.

My feeling is that many investors simply want to believe this and take any opprotunity (the smallest piece good news) .

Stock markets are all about emotion. Recent US economic news has been less disastrous than expected so some people are buying. There's also a huge amount of cash that's been pulled out of the market over the last six months and people / firms are desperate to find something, anything, that will return more than the 0.25% they can get in other, less risky investments. As a result there's a lot of money flowing back into the markets and whenever that happens the markets are going to go up.

But ... should the economic news return to being universally gloomy, look out below.

[smeagol]

Boy was I wrong!

[LnGrrrR]

B/C Wall Street knows this administration and treasury will fuck things up even worse.

Sometimes I just like pulling out old quotes.

[chreph]

I'm so depressed... I had been looking at MGM stock ever since I heard they reached an agreement with DubaiWorld to finish CityCenter in Vegas. It was only at $5.XX/share and I told my wife about it. Watched it for a day or two and nothing happened so I decided to pass. A week and a half later, it's up 150% :bang

[smeagol]

I'm so depressed... I had been looking at MGM stock ever since I heard they reached an agreement with DubaiWorld to finish CityCenter in Vegas. It was only at $5.XX/share and I told my wife about it. Watched it for a day or two and nothing happened so I decided to pass. A week and a half later, it's up 150% :bang

Citibank is up 300% and if it is true it's capital-related problems are behind it, it should go to $10 pretty soon.

[chreph]

Citibank is up 300% and if it is true it's capital-related problems are behind it, it should go to $10 pretty soon.

Yeah, almost all the banks have at least doubled or tripled their stock rate from early March until now. I feel like a dumbass because I purchased BOA stock at $8.25 and saw it raise to $11 before falling back down to $7. When it raised to $10.75 again, I was sure it was going to drop back down to at least $10 or so (had been watching it's activity all week throughout the day). I sold 200 shares at that point thinking it'd drop a little and I'd buy it back up while pocketing the difference.... but the SOB kept raising until it hit $15 :( Cost myself $850.

For the record, I just started playing the stock "game" a few weeks ago. I got 30 days of free trading so I decided I was going to start with $2K and see what I could grow it to by being very active and making a few quick bucks here and there. Had I not had free trading, I most definitely would've held onto my BOA stock instead of trying to turn a quick $50-$75 the day I sold it. They are going to issue a few billion in additional stocks at $8.75 a share soon, though. So I'm most definitely going to get in on that. Also, they are offering 5 year bonds with a 7.25% return for those who like to play it safe :toast

[peewee's lovechild]

Dead Cat Bounce!!!!!!!

[CosmicCowboy]

Dead Cat Bounce!!!!!!!

Cute. I presume that was directed at me.

I will admit that this bear market rally has had legs, despite the fact that there has been very little good economic news. It was a no brainer that the financial stocks were oversold once it became obvious that the Fed was in the pocket of the big wall street banking firms and wasn't gonna let them fail no matter what and wasn't going to dilute their equity either.

And amazingly. no one seems to be concerned that China has pulled out of the treasury auctions and the Fed is buying all the debt...most people won't even ubderstand what hit them when interest rates jump into the double digits and the dollar crashes...

Most of the smart money guys I run with are buying high yield, low rated, tax free muni funds for the short term because they know bond ratings don't matter anymore because the Fed is gonna bail out any cities or states that get upside down.

Your tax dollars are gonna make them a shit load of money...a 9% after tax yield is nothing to sneeze at.

[CubanMustGo]

I picked up some Ford stock @ 1.80 :king

I wish I would have bought more :depressed

[FaithInOne]

Is it true the IMF wanted to dump all its gold for China to purchase?

[Cant_Be_Faded]

They're selling gold to anyone to purchase.

I still cannot get over how stupid greedy people are. I realize it probably went too low back in early March than it was worth, but it's rallying hardcore over little-to-no legit positive news. Those stress tests were also designed to tell people that the bailouts are working, and there are several critics out there pointing out how the results are not nearly as positive as the treasury department has described them.

[smeagol]

They're selling gold to anyone to purchase.

I still cannot get over how stupid greedy people are. I realize it probably went too low back in early March than it was worth, but it's rallying hardcore over little-to-no legit positive news. Those stress tests were also designed to tell people that the bailouts are working, and there are several critics out there pointing out how the results are not nearly as positive as the treasury department has described them.

I agree with most of what you say.

I'm very surprised the S&P has rallies almost 40% since early March on the heals of news such as "537K job losses in March"!!!????

[Fat Bones]

My mutual funds are up 23.7% YTD, 18.3% since Nov. 1st; :toast
How y'all doin'?

[Wild Cobra]

My mutual funds are up 23.7% YTD, 18.3% since Nov. 1st; :toast
How y'all doin'?
I haven't looked, but probably similar. For my retirement purchases, I had no fear of the drop. It just meant I was buying more shares for the same price.

[JoeChalupa]

We are back on track!!

[Spurminator]

I picked up some Ford stock @ 1.80 :king

I wish I would have bought more :depressed


Hell, I bought at $6 and I'm kicking myself for not buying more.

[CavsSuperFan]

I am glad everyone’s portfolio is doing so well but do we really know the value of anything while the Government props up the system with cash infusions? The Government now is the largest stake holder in GM & boosts GM’s sales by a cash for clunkers program….I this free markets?

[CubanMustGo]

I want to know how 25000 clunkers @ $4K (average) per car equates to the program being out of money already. Last time I checked, 25K * 4K = $100M, not $1B.

And re the market, yes, if you've been in steady and investing this year, you're doing OK - but if you've been in for any length of time you're still down for the last year. Things are looking a lot better but for the rally to continue, there must actually be a recovery, not simply for the pace of the recession to keep slowing.

[ChumpDumper]

I want to know how 25000 clunkers @ $4K (average) per car equates to the program being out of money already. Last time I checked, 25K * 4K = $100M, not $1B.I believe there is a large backlog of unprocessed rebates.

[RandomGuy]

Look at how much it has dropped since after the November 2006 elections and the democrats changed some market rules starting in the summer of 2006, and fear of what the democrats will still do... It's dropped harder since the Housing lenders bubble burst, and will drop even more with Obama's policies and fears generated into the markets.

Can you say Dow at 6000?

http://ichart.finance.yahoo.com/z?s=%5EDJI&t=5y&q=l&l=on&z=m&c=%5EDJI&a=v&p=s

:lmao

oopsies. six months later, and we're still waiting on 6000....

[CosmicCowboy]

Don't get too smug. There has been no logical reason for the recent market bump up. The economy still sucks and is getting worse.

[Viva Las Espuelas]

:lmao

oopsies. six months later, and we're still waiting on 6000....

you must get heartbroken everytime you watch the weather on the news.

[ChumpDumper]

Don't get too smug. There has been no logical reason for the recent market bump up. The economy still sucks and is getting worse.From what I understand, some economic indicators are getting worse but the rate at which they are getting worse is lessening. That leads many to believe that the economy is on it's way to stabilizing.

[Sportcamper]

Sooo...What is the latest forecast....Dow almost up to 10,000…

[Sportcamper]

Anyone have an economic forecast or stock market analysis?

[Cant_Be_Faded]

I bet smegmal is busy buying S&P calls

[MannyIsGod]

:lol

I love this thread.

[Viva Las Espuelas]

Sooo...What is the latest forecast....Dow almost up to 10,000…
unemployment still going down.

:toast

[CosmicCowboy]

I'm still extremely negative on most dollar denominated stocks over a five year window, especially in services and manufacturing industries. The fact that the market goes up 20% while the dollar drops 20% just gives you a push, and the dollar is GOING to keep dropping. Our elected officials (both republicans and democrats) don't have the political guts to do what is necessary to really fix our economy for the long term. They are just buzzards standing on the left/right of the carcass picking off chunks for themselves.

[Fat Bones]

I'm up 39% YTD, I get the feeling I should back away from the table, cash in my chips, get my meal comped, and go see the Blue Man Group or Penn and Teller.

I am afraid you are right, CC, the problems with our economy haven't been addressed and we have an out of control trade deficit. Between the ongoing/escalating war, and all the cash being dumped to prop up short term fixes without any real fundamental and strategic change to business as usual, our national debt is probably irrecoverable at this point. We could be in for a stagnation like Japan's in the 90's...or worse.

[CosmicCowboy]

The rest of the world is losing patience with us. They see our politicians burning dollars and promising (non producing/taxpaying citizens) more and more benefits without any way to pay for it without borrowing money from other countries. We are very much in danger of the rest of the world cutting loose from the dollar. When this happens we will be well and truly screwed.

[averageusaconsumer]

dow lost over 200 points today, yowza

[Sportcamper]

10,000...The cat is not dead....

[CosmicCowboy]

this is a very good read...

http://www.investorsinsight.com/blogs/john_mauldins_outside_the_box/archive/2009/10/12/quarterly-review-and-outlook-third-quarter-2009.aspx

[TDMVPDPOY]

is it fair to say we are back to where it all started? the market atm is still a fake economy made up of bailout payments and not fixing the financial system.

All the banks and major players who received funds, most of them bailout money is just increasing their balance books, thats about it...whether they are lending it out is another question, same with bank deposits at low rates doing nothing...ppl are just parking it in there cause of the FDIC guaranteed payouts if someshit goes wrong. Just funds from unsecured institutions transfered to a secured instituition.

I dont know if the govt has cramp down on banking operations like loans and shit, now with the govts new policy tax credits like the first home buyers grant, are the banks and its sales commission team going to restart the lending credit too ppl who dont qualify...cant wait till the shits hit the fans again

[CosmicCowboy]

Trust me, banks are scared shitless to loan money right now. The bank examiners are making them do triple back flips to document every dime they loan and giving all the bankers I know migraines. If you want to borrow money these days you better have triple A credit and not REALLY need to borrow it.

[Cant_Be_Faded]

Anyone who can look at a chart can say the stock market has recovered.

But a healthy stock market does not mean a healthy economy.

Basically all that's happened is that a fuckton of middle-uppermiddle-upper class people throughout the entire world that did good by saving their money jumped at the opportunity and have been sinking money into the markets like madmen. That in turn made the bigmoney sink more money into it, and now it's gone full circle to the typical investor douche.

I bet if this shit is not sustainable, and we see a long period of selling-off, you will start to hear talk about a "recovery bubble" in the stock market.

[CosmicCowboy]

Anyone who can look at a chart can say the stock market has recovered.

But a healthy stock market does not mean a healthy economy.

Basically all that's happened is that a fuckton of middle-uppermiddle-upper class people throughout the entire world that did good by saving their money jumped at the opportunity and have been sinking money into the markets like madmen. That in turn made the bigmoney sink more money into it, and now it's gone full circle to the typical investor douche.

I bet if this shit is not sustainable, and we see a long period of selling-off, you will start to hear talk about a "recovery bubble" in the stock market.

I think it's actually a flight from the dollar. If you put $1000 in a CD last January and got maybe 2% interest at most the $1000 you put in is now worth $900 in January dollars. Our government is intentionally trashing the dollar. I think that the hope is that the stock market "numbers" will go up faster than the dollar drops.

[Cant_Be_Faded]

I think it's actually a flight from the dollar. If you put $1000 in a CD last January and got maybe 2% interest at most the $1000 you put in is now worth $900 in January dollars. Our government is intentionally trashing the dollar. I think that the hope is that the stock market "numbers" will go up faster than the dollar drops.

the dollar has not been going straight down in concert with the upswing in the market

it was actually leveling off or going slightly up for part of the stock market recovery

but yeah, now the dollar is sucking taint in the big picture


What did go together with the first jump from march into the first lull around july was the total money supply data from the Fed. There was an obscene amount of money floating around in computers during that first big bump. Once the fed took some of it away (however it is they do that), it started going down to after-march lows

[phxspurfan]

Trust me, banks are scared shitless to loan money right now. The bank examiners are making them do triple back flips to document every dime they loan and giving all the bankers I know migraines. If you want to borrow money these days you better have triple A credit and not REALLY need to borrow it.

Banks can't lend money right now. FDIC insurance states they must keep something like 10% of all deposits in cash in case everyone starts coming to cash out. Basically if they didn't do that our currency would devalue faster than the Russian Ruble.

It's not like the billions are going just to execs (even though they are getting bonuses). And part of the bonus argument is that these companies are in trouble and in need of some serious management talent. Talent that would not come if the incentive wasn't there.

[phxspurfan]

Anyone who can look at a chart can say the stock market has recovered.

But a healthy stock market does not mean a healthy economy.

Basically all that's happened is that a fuckton of middle-uppermiddle-upper class people throughout the entire world that did good by saving their money jumped at the opportunity and have been sinking money into the markets like madmen. That in turn made the bigmoney sink more money into it, and now it's gone full circle to the typical investor douche.

I bet if this shit is not sustainable, and we see a long period of selling-off, you will start to hear talk about a "recovery bubble" in the stock market.

There will not be another complete selloff. The institutional investors ("big money") are already re-investing at the moment since almost no one actually bought right at the bottom and held up until today to make their 80%-average gains. Most funds (and their prospective clients) are questioning why they have stayed in cash during this big bull run. They're just now backing up the trucks to get in on the action before their money managers get fired for underperforming the S&P.


By the way if you think institution follows retail in investing you need to go back and study economics. The tail does not wag the dog.

[Cant_Be_Faded]

There will not be another complete selloff. The institutional investors ("big money") are already re-investing at the moment since almost no one actually bought right at the bottom and held up until today to make their 80%-average gains. Most funds (and their prospective clients) are questioning why they have stayed in cash during this big bull run. They're just now backing up the trucks to get in on the action before their money managers get fired for underperforming the S&P.


By the way if you think institution follows retail in investing you need to go back and study economics. The tail does not wag the dog.

Who said anything about a complete selloff? Plus how would you consider the previous selloff complete when there was still value in the market at the low point?
also even guys who wrote the laws on economics never experienced what the market went through over the last 2 years. When weird shit happens there is no dog no tail or no wagging

[phxspurfan]

Who said anything about a complete selloff? Plus how would you consider the previous selloff complete when there was still value in the market at the low point?
also even guys who wrote the laws on economics never experienced what the market went through over the last 2 years. When weird shit happens there is no dog no tail or no wagging

Let me break it down. There will not be another selloff to the March lows anytime soon. There are clear cut levels of support that can be seen when the uptrend has been challenged (something like 10-15 times since March) that all have led to mixed volume buying. Buying on dips has made the fund managers money and there's no way they would let the market bottom like that again unless some cataclysm happened like war.

[CosmicCowboy]

Who said anything about a complete selloff? Plus how would you consider the previous selloff complete when there was still value in the market at the low point?
also even guys who wrote the laws on economics never experienced what the market went through over the last 2 years. When weird shit happens there is no dog no tail or no wagging

Excellent point. The FED is wagging the markets. Bank stocks were shit, then the FED stepped in and said "they are too big to fail."

Smart money made 100%-1000%+ buying back in.

The markets are not rational anymore. Insiders are making a killing. Outsiders are pot builders.

[Fat Bones]

unless some cataclysm happened like war.

Wait. Aren't we still at war?

War is profitable for a lot of business, brutal on the tax payer and their families, but now we finally meet our enlistment goals.
And we're flooding the market with money we don't have while changing little in our daily business of float the note.

Seems precarious anyway.

[hater]

Down 1000 today

:lmao orange with hair thinking his shitty tariffs will do anything

China said fu k you and notched up the trade war to an 11. They are basically ready for war now.

Trump retarded asz will be too stubborn to back out so it's recession for us and the Maga retards :lol

Maybe China will give him a chance to back out without an embarrasme t and he should take it :lol

[Chucho]

Called det shit. :tu

[Chris]

Stock market goes up:

Obama's economy

Stock market goes down:

Trump's recession

[Chucho]

This must be the start of World Word 50 by Hater's count...

[Blake]

Stock market goes up:

Obama's economy

Stock market goes down:

Trump's recession

:lol no Chris you don't get to go there after Trump tweet storms when it went up

[Millennial_Messiah]

I'm hoping for Recession so I can finally start investing my piles of money that's sitting in the bank right now... Fix and flip real estate and eventually hope to buy a big student apartment complex while it's cheap... my APY% on my CD has fallen from 2.37% in April to a coupon rate of 2.00% now and I was lucky to get that one before it went down even further the next day.

Plus get to look forward to $5 Footlongs again and 55 cent junior hamburger sales. 2009 was a good time to be a consumer.

[DC23]

I do think it remains ugly and choppy for months. Not a time to panic or get aggressive. Trade war will be with us for years. No resolution in sight. So market will get use to trade war and re-calibrate. My thoughts.

[Millennial_Messiah]

I do think it remains ugly and choppy for months. Not a time to panic or get aggressive. Trade war will be with us for years. No resolution in sight. So market will get use to trade war and re-calibrate. My thoughts.

My realtor predicted Recession and a falling in real estate prices beginning around Fall 2020. That would be very good news because it's just been a steady and sharp incline since 2011 which has been a huge hardship for both homebuyers and owners (Texas property taxes have more than doubled in the past 8 years).

[spurraider21]

Stock market goes up:

Obama's economy

Stock market goes down:

Trump's recession
Stock market goes up:

Trump is doing awesome

Stock market does down:

hur dur

[DC23]

My realtor predicted Recession and a falling in real estate prices beginning around Fall 2020. That would be very good news because it's just been a steady and sharp incline since 2011 which has been a huge hardship for both homebuyers and owners (Texas property taxes have more than doubled in the past 8 years).
Real estate will be fine so long as interest rates remain low.

[phxspurfan]

I'm hoping for Recession so I can finally start investing my piles of money that's sitting in the bank right now... Fix and flip real estate and eventually hope to buy a big student apartment complex while it's cheap... my APY% on my CD has fallen from 2.37% in April to a coupon rate of 2.00% now and I was lucky to get that one before it went down even further the next day.

Plus get to look forward to $5 Footlongs again and 55 cent junior hamburger sales. 2009 was a good time to be a consumer.

I got tired of waiting and bought with my pile of money already. Hoping it doesn't hit as hard as 08.

[Spurminator]

Stock market goes up:

Obama's economy

Stock market goes down:

Trump's recession

Do you want us to call this Obama's recession?

:lmao

[Millennial_Messiah]

Do you want us to call this Obama's recession?

:lmao
Truth is there is an Economic life cycle which the length of can vary by 2-4 years up or down standard deviation with a mean of about 8 years historically. There is little any specific president, congress or the federal reserve can do about it.

[Millennial_Messiah]

I got tired of waiting and bought with my pile of money already. Hoping it doesn't hit as hard as 08.

But if you wait until the Recession hits the price of just about everything goes down and your purchasing power with said pile of money increases substantially.

When prices are high and you're young and building wealth, better to Rent and live cheaply as you can take it until the next crash inevitably happens.

[Millennial_Messiah]

Real estate will be fine so long as interest rates remain low.
The price of RE, houses in particular, will go down at some point soon following the start of a recession regardless of interest rates. It doesn't matter if the interest rate is zero if prospective buyers can't qualify for a home loan because they lost their job or their investment savings, and they sure as hell don't have the cash to buy it straight up. If nothing else, the first thing that goes down sharply is the price of fixer-uppers ("ugly" and "gutted" houses) because less people have the means to be in that market, and/or aren't willing to take on that risk in a buyer's market.

[phxspurfan]

But if you wait until the Recession hits the price of just about everything goes down and your purchasing power with said pile of money increases substantially.

When prices are high and you're young and building wealth, better to Rent and live cheaply as you can take it until the next crash inevitably happens.

You're right, but I just got sick of renting in shitholes. Saw a nice house, put an offer below asking and got it. Will probably regret it if real estate values go to hell, but at least I got a relatively low rate and a fixed mortgage (unlike friends who got ARMs and crap back in 05-07).

[Millennial_Messiah]

You're right, but I just got sick of renting in shitholes. Saw a nice house, put an offer below asking and got it. Will probably regret it if real estate values go to hell, but at least I got a relatively low rate and a fixed mortgage (unlike friends who got ARMs and crap back in 05-07).
Yeah anyone who bought a house from 04-07 had it the worst and is still struggling more than the average middle aged American these days. The problem is the fixed mortgage doesn't go down when the RE prices go down, you have to pay what you bought it for not current market value, so you end up with a major unrealized capital loss.

[phxspurfan]

Yeah anyone who bought a house from 04-07 had it the worst and is still struggling more than the average middle aged American these days. The problem is the fixed mortgage doesn't go down when the RE prices go down, you have to pay what you bought it for not current market value, so you end up with a major unrealized capital loss.

True hence the suckage. But I just hope it doesn't go down like a rock in my area, as I'm in a good job market

[FkLA]

This is why I'm making the move to real estate. I've lost a couple hundred in less than a year on stocks and have no control. Atleast in RE if I lose it's because I fucked up.

[Millennial_Messiah]

True hence the suckage. But I just hope it doesn't go down like a rock in my area, as I'm in a good job market

Maricopa county? If so I have 8 acres of land I need to sell there before the recession

[Millennial_Messiah]

This is why I'm making the move to real estate. I've lost a couple hundred in less than a year on stocks and have no control. Atleast in RE if I lose it's because I fucked up.

But RE is a lot more time consuming. In my experience you have to take calls at whatever time of day especially early in the morning. If you're at work you might have to drop everything to meet at the local Starbucks with a random notary sent by a title company. Or you have to go to a specific bank (example, Chase, even if you don't bank there) to deposit funds in your property mgmt company's account. You'll probably get scammed out of some money the first couple times you get into RE. It's annoying.

[phxspurfan]

Maricopa county? If so I have 8 acres of land I need to sell there before the recession

Nah, but I do own there as well. From 2011

[Mitch]

I expected a correction last Monday or Tuesday, tbh.

[Millennial_Messiah]

Nah, but I do own there as well. From 2011

what area do you live? not to be nosey just interested for curious sake

[phxspurfan]

what area do you live? not to be nosey just interested for curious sake

In your heart

[Chris]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1158775967755788289?s=20

[FkLA]

But RE is a lot more time consuming. In my experience you have to take calls at whatever time of day especially early in the morning. If you're at work you might have to drop everything to meet at the local Starbucks with a random notary sent by a title company. Or you have to go to a specific bank (example, Chase, even if you don't bank there) to deposit funds in your property mgmt company's account. You'll probably get scammed out of some money the first couple times you get into RE. It's annoying.

It is more time consuming but I don't think it's that extreme, bro. :lol

[Millennial_Messiah]

It is more time consuming but I don't think it's that extreme, bro. :lol

Yes, it is. I have 3 years of experience. I lost big money on my first one. Don't think it can't or won't happen to you. It's an experienced man's game.

[FkLA]

Yes, it is. I have 3 years of experience. I lost big money on my first one. Don't think it can't or won't happen to you. It's an experienced man's game.

On a flip? Or what do you do?

[Millennial_Messiah]

On a flip? Or what do you do?

Listened to the wrong guy regarding ARV and on top of that, the construction guy he recommended me started building a mancave out of half of the garage.

Also, protip... never finish an attic or a basement unless it's a HUGE dollar flip (over $400K ARV)... because generally, it costs more to renovate that than added value. And never build a pool on a property you plan on flipping.

[FkLA]

Listened to the wrong guy regarding ARV and on top of that, the construction guy he recommended me started building a mancave out of half of the garage.

Also, protip... never finish an attic or a basement unless it's a HUGE dollar flip (over $400K ARV)... because generally, it costs more to renovate that than added value. And never build a pool on a property you plan on flipping.

Seems like an amateur mistake, imo. Should've ran your own comps.

I probably won't flip though. Atleast not right away. Where are you getting the capital for those type of flips? :lol

[Millennial_Messiah]

Seems like an amateur mistake, imo. Should've ran your own comps.

I probably won't flip though. Atleast not right away. Where are you getting the capital for those type of flips? :lol

If you don't have cash on hand, use hard money. Typically your responsibility is only 10% up front of the entire investor cost (purchase price + rehab costs). They won't give you any cash; they usually withhold the rehab costs until you get a licensed property management company to e-sign a contract with them (then they will wire them the funds instantly prior to rehabbing), or if you have some type of handyman license yourself and you want to DIY then there is usually an option to directly e-sign with them.

[FkLA]

Yeah, but 10% of 300k is still 30k. That's still a lot of money, imo.

[LaMarcus Bryant]

He probably has his daddy fronting him every step of the way

[BD24]

Andy is a pathological liar. He has never been involved in RE tbh

[SpursforSix]

This is why I'm making the move to real estate. I've lost a couple hundred in less than a year on stocks and have no control. Atleast in RE if I lose it's because I fucked up.

What do you mean that you have no control?

[FkLA]

What do you mean that you have no control?

Too dependent on the market and the companies. I like that in RE you can create your own system to analyze properties, and if you invest for cash flow and not appreciation you are less dependent on the market. Your return on investment is higher in RE too (if you know what you're doing).

[SpursforSix]

Too dependent on the market and the companies. I like that in RE you can create your own system to analyze properties, and if you invest for cash flow and not appreciation you are less dependent on the market. Your return on investment is higher in RE too (if you know what you're doing).

Ah...I thought you meant you had no control over your buying and selling of stocks.

[Mitch]

Andy is a pathological liar. He has never been involved in RE tbh

He covers up his life by lying about everything so nobody will figure out the truth :lol

Pictures don't lie tho, dude porks an obese woman and works min wage.

[Millennial_Messiah]

He covers up his life by lying about everything so nobody will figure out the truth :lol

Pictures don't lie tho, dude porks an obese woman and works min wage.

What pictures? I dare you to post them on here.

[Mitch]

What pictures? I dare you to post them on here.

:lol you'd just bitch to whoever still mods this place, pretty sure a handful of people have seen since you posted your name here using photobucket like a retarded boomer

[Millennial_Messiah]

:lol you'd just bitch to whoever still mods this place, pretty sure a handful of people have seen since you posted your name here using photobucket like a retarded boomer
Yes, I used photobucket. But there's no pictures on there.

No bitching... Avante bitches about it all the time but they don't do shit because honestly they're the most liberal/laissez faire mods on almost any message board on the internet... if you have pictures, post them, I guarantee I won't bitch lol

[Mitch]

Yes, I used photobucket. But there's no pictures on there.

No bitching... Avante bitches about it all the time but they don't do shit because honestly they're the most liberal/laissez faire mods on almost any message board on the internet... if you have pictures, post them, I guarantee I won't bitch lol

Your guarantees are worth as much as a Venezuelan bolivar :lol

Nah, but I'll just say I find it ironic a proud millennial is as tech savvy as a babuska from Moldova :lol

You use photobucket and put your actual name on it while also having a social media profile which has the same info you tell us like age, school and hometown. I knew better when I was 8 years old :lol

Be lucky nobody here really cares about your lying ass enough to really mess with you because you'd be easy pickings for plenty of shit heads on the internet.

[Millennial_Messiah]

Your guarantees are worth as much as a Venezuelan bolivar :lol

Nah, but I'll just say I find it ironic a proud millennial is as tech savvy as a babuska from Moldova :lol

You use photobucket and put your actual name on it while also having a social media profile which has the same info you tell us like age, school and hometown. I knew better when I was 8 years old :lol

Be lucky nobody here really cares about your lying ass enough to really mess with you because you'd be easy pickings for plenty of shit heads on the internet.

I think I'd manage. But I triple dog dare you to "dox" me on here like benefactor did to Queen Larry. I'm confident in who I am and I'm also pretty damn sure that social media page you found of me was completely the wrong person, but at least attempt.

[Mitch]

I think I'd manage. But I triple dog dare you to "dox" me on here like benefactor did to Queen Larry. I'm confident in who I am and I'm also pretty damn sure that social media page you found of me was completely the wrong person, but at least attempt.

Not gonna bite, boomer. Makes no sense anyways, nobody cares and you're a compulsive liar. Just google your name and see what pops up if you're curious, took just a few seconds :lol

[Trill Clinton]

How is everyone looking this week.

[SnakeBoy]

How is everyone looking this week.

Took gains on XLE & XLF last week and moved to ITOT & MSFT. Bailed on those on Monday for small gain. Should have sat on XLE & XLF a while longer. Back to cash until the market jitters settle.

Picked up some HEPA under $2 but that's just gamblin money

[RandomGuy]

I think I'd manage. But I triple dog dare you to "dox" me on here like benefactor did to Queen Larry. I'm confident in who I am and I'm also pretty damn sure that social media page you found of me was completely the wrong person, but at least attempt.

:lol Random Guy search on google.

[lefty20]

Paper handed SPY 387p for loss yesterday. Shit is worth 3x today.

Lesson learned, never sell for a loss. Profit or bankruptcy loss porn, no middle ground.

[SnakeBoy]

Market in freak out mode over inflation fears :lol

[Trill Clinton]

Diamond hands on deck

[lefty20]

https://twitter.com/i/status/1367967653302652929

[SnakeBoy]

Took gains on XLE & XLF last week and moved to ITOT & MSFT. Bailed on those on Monday for small gain. Should have sat on XLE & XLF a while longer. Back to cash until the market jitters settle.

Picked up some HEPA under $2 but that's just gamblin money

Nasdaq looking like the tech selloff is over.

Hoping to ride MSFT to the $250's by eom

HEPA making a nice move. Looking for $3+.

[Trill Clinton]

Invested in NIO LI CCIV during the dip. EV's are the future. Also got some Roblox.

[Trainwreck2100]

Invested in NIO LI CCIV during the dip. EV's are the future. Also got some Roblox.

that's a good stock with the stimulus and free money for being a parent on the way

[Millennial_Messiah]

We need sequestration not stimulus so the stock market and housing market can finally at long last even itself out. Both Dems/GOP to blame.

[TimDunkem]

So Roblox isn't just another meme stock? :lol

[Millennial_Messiah]

If I were President I would immediately announce large scale sequestration across the board, even more than Jan-Feb 2013, and require that all stimulus money since the first stimulus last spring be paid back in full by no more than 90 days or it would begin accruing interest at 25% APR and be garnished from wages until the debt was collected.

I would also draft and sign an executive order mandating a Fed interest rate floor of 5% and impose other measures to fight inflation and irresponsible borrowing. Reward the responsible savers, punish the borrowers.

[ChumpDumper]

That's pretty stupid.

[Millennial_Messiah]

That's pretty stupid.

Inflation is what's stupid.

[ChumpDumper]

Inflation is what's stupid.Eh, we'll just kill it with interest rates if it happens.

[lefty20]

So Roblox isn't just another meme stock? :lol

Nope. That's fake news. There's next to no hype on wsb about Roblox. It's mainly GME followed by a sprinkling of AMC and PLTR these days.

[Millennial_Messiah]

Eh, we'll just kill it with interest rates if it happens.

Well, it's happened in the past year even despite of COVID killing jobs... basically a year of nothing but stagflation. Both GOP/Dems at fault, but the blame is largely tilting toward the Dems as they have all 3 chambers in power now. And the government refuses to raise interest rates to protect consumers from this large-scale inflation that's been going on due to all this bullshit stimulus and borrowing due to ZIRP. Meanwhile people are still out of work and underemployed due to the plandemic.

[ChumpDumper]

Well, it's happened in the past year even despite of COVID killing jobs... basically a year of nothing but stagflation. Both GOP/Dems at fault, but the blame is largely tilting toward the Dems as they have all 3 chambers in power now. And the government refuses to raise interest rates to protect consumers from this large-scale inflation that's been going on due to all this bullshit stimulus and borrowing due to ZIRP. Meanwhile people are still out of work and underemployed due to the plandemic.:lol moar conspiracies.

The economy has to heat up before it can be cooled down.

[Millennial_Messiah]

:lol moar conspiracies.

The economy has to heat up before it can be cooled down.

It's been way too damn hot for way too many years. Particularly the housing/real estate market. It's way long overdue to cool down. Buyers haven't had a chance in over 7 years.

[Millennial_Messiah]

Too dependent on the market and the companies. I like that in RE you can create your own system to analyze properties, and if you invest for cash flow and not appreciation you are less dependent on the market. Your return on investment is higher in RE too (if you know what you're doing).

RE is great but right now is actually historically the worst time to buy. I would wait to buy because the market is long overdue to balance itself out. People talk about interest rates but the biggest problem is inventory and banks not having the balls to foreclose right now when they should be doing just that. The bottom is overdue to fall out on the housing market. Because right now it's literally the worst for buyers, worse than 2007. It has nowhere to go but down.

[Darth_Pelican]

My OGI stock was freaking boss this week.

[SnakeBoy]

RE is great but right now is actually historically the worst time to buy. I would wait to buy because the market is long overdue to balance itself out. People talk about interest rates but the biggest problem is inventory and banks not having the balls to foreclose right now when they should be doing just that. The bottom is overdue to fall out on the housing market. Because right now it's literally the worst for buyers, worse than 2007. It has nowhere to go but down.

Probably has a few years growth left. Rising interest rates in the 2nd half of this decade are going to mess it all up for sure.

[Millennial_Messiah]

Probably has a few years growth left. Rising interest rates in the 2nd half of this decade are going to mess it all up for sure.

No way. There has never been 10+ years of growth without decline. It has been overdue to plateau/decline for about two years now as per normal economic cycle trends, but the stimulus bullshit, ZIRP garbage, and banks not having the balls to foreclose (as they should, because a contract is a contract, COVID is a lame excuse) has kept it temporarily propped up.

It will go down very soon, especially with a Dem president

[Spurtacular]

My OGI stock was freaking boss this week.

Would've gotten in on it if I had seen it sooner.

[LaMarcus Bryant]

RE is great but right now is actually historically the worst time to buy. I would wait to buy because the market is long overdue to balance itself out. People talk about interest rates but the biggest problem is inventory and banks not having the balls to foreclose right now when they should be doing just that. The bottom is overdue to fall out on the housing market. Because right now it's literally the worst for buyers, worse than 2007. It has nowhere to go but down.

Why would there be foreclosures in an area like texas where anyone can sell for a huge profit within hours of listing.

[SpursforSix]

Why would there be foreclosures in an area like texas where anyone can sell for a huge profit within hours of listing.

That's actually kind of a precursor to a crash and foreclosures.

[LaMarcus Bryant]

That's actually kind of a precursor to a crash and foreclosures.

How foreclosures tho
People can sell for $$$$ within hours of listing. Why would they wait to be foreclosed on


inventories low af, sellers prob aren't even getting back into houses that need to sell bc there aren't any available in emergency time frame

[SpursforSix]

How foreclosures tho
People can sell for $$$$ within hours of listing. Why would they wait to be foreclosed on


inventories low af, sellers prob aren't even getting back into houses that need to sell bc there aren't any available in emergency time frame

It's this kind of mania that usually precedes a bubble burst. And if that bubble does burst, a lot of homeowners could be upside down pretty quickly.

[LaMarcus Bryant]

It's this kind of mania that usually precedes a bubble burst. And if that bubble does burst, a lot of homeowners could be upside down pretty quickly.

True I get that. But it took an epic lending cluster of really shitty credit lines that took out 08 housing market.
Is there really a horde of low income adjustable rate mortgages out there driving this housing market? Seems to be a diff catalyst this time, like once in lifetime low mortgage rates, historically low inventories, etc

[SpursforSix]

True I get that. But it took an epic lending cluster of really shitty credit lines that took out 08 housing market.
Is there really a horde of low income adjustable rate mortgages out there driving this housing market? Seems to be a diff catalyst this time, like once in lifetime low mortgage rates, historically low inventories, etc

As to the horde of low income rates, I don't know. I'm sure it's gotten tighter. But if there is a significant crash, I think there is a risk of lots of homeowners having negative equity.

[SnakeBoy]

https://charts.stocktwits.com/production/original_304602916.png

[FkLA]

RE is great but right now is actually historically the worst time to buy. I would wait to buy because the market is long overdue to balance itself out. People talk about interest rates but the biggest problem is inventory and banks not having the balls to foreclose right now when they should be doing just that. The bottom is overdue to fall out on the housing market. Because right now it's literally the worst for buyers, worse than 2007. It has nowhere to go but down.

Depends. I think it could be the worst time to buy for a normal home buyer that's paying market value. But for an investor? If you buy smart and pay below market value, or even take on a rehab project...I dont think it's a bad move especially when coupled with these historically low rates.

It is dry af out there though. I've been ready to buy another property for like 5-6 months and haven't landed anything. Theres noticeably fewer good deals (compared to pre-covid or even the beginning of covid) out there for sure, and they're usually gone within a few days, tbh.

[SnakeBoy]

Texas market should be a good time to buy with interest rates so low. Values should continue to go up as Texas is forecast have great growth for a generation. Interest rates will be going up the 2nd half of this decade(or sooner).

If I was a RE investor I'd be buying. I'm not an RE investor tho so take that for what it is worth.

[Millennial_Messiah]

Depends. I think it could be the worst time to buy for a normal home buyer that's paying market value. But for an investor? If you buy smart and pay below market value, or even take on a rehab project...I dont think it's a bad move especially when coupled with these historically low rates.

It is dry af out there though. I've been ready to buy another property for like 5-6 months and haven't landed anything. Theres noticeably fewer good deals (compared to pre-covid or even the beginning of covid) out there for sure, and they're usually gone within a few days, tbh.

Even pre covid it's been bad for buyers for several years now.

As for rehab projects, they're just not out there anymore, like they were from 2009-2015 big time and even to some extent a couple years after that, but by around 2017 it became such a seller's market that even the rehab project houses were going for like 80k even for the shittiest starter project homes that needed a ton of work. Long gone are the days where you could buy a gutted home for 20K, put 40K-60K of work making it look beautiful or at least move-in ready and re-sell it for like 150K-200K. Investors made good money doing that until that became too popular and everyone got priced out because the LTVs just aren't there anymore.

The low interest rates don't really matter for fix-and-flip because banks and credit unions won't offer conventional loans for rehab project homes. You have to get a hard money loan which is interest only and you have to (a) pay all the principal back at the end, and (b) still have enough cash on hand to fund the entire construction project, which is a bitch. You can potentially take out a second loan with a different financier if you don't have the cash to fund the fix part, but I've been down that road and you're paying a ton in interest because you're paying double interest and the interest rates are high on these installment type loans, definitely not the 3-5% variety you get on new mortgages or HELOCs.

Trust me, I have real estate experience, I've done fix and flip, I've had it hard, especially circa 2017-2018. I've been waist deep in debt over that shit. Don't want to go down that road again for awhile unless the value is certainly there, and right now it's definitely not. There are no >30% net profit fix and flip deals available right now because the sellers of the project homes are up-charging because it's been such a seller's market even for old homes in shitty condition. And the banks won't even fund if it's under 70% or sometimes 65% LTV. The appraisals always come in low because they don't account for the last year of sales, they go by a historical weighted average of the last 5 or 7 years or so which is BS but it's the industry.

So yeah, real estate investing sucks right now, fix and flip has been dead since 2015, and since COVID being a landlord also sucks because of all the federal and state forbearance and forgiveness and anti-eviction laws that force landlords to allow tenants to live rent free if they apply for some bogus "covid exemption"... it's all fucked up government regulatory bullshit. And fuck the Fed for keeping the interest rates low AF, there should be a mandatory Fed interest rate floor of 3% which I've been calling upon for at least a decade ever since the cancerous ZIRP was first implemented.

[Millennial_Messiah]

Texas market should be a good time to buy with interest rates so low. Values should continue to go up as Texas is forecast have great growth for a generation. Interest rates will be going up the 2nd half of this decade(or sooner).

If I was a RE investor I'd be buying. I'm not an RE investor tho so take that for what it is worth.

Have you actually f'ing looked at the MLS, Realtor, or even Zillow (the latter is not my favorite source, btw)? Everything move in ready is way overpriced, almost 150/sqft for decent suburban neighborhood homes in or around any of the big Texas cities, and edging 200/sqft for new constructions. Tack on more for anything with any decent acreage or other amenities or in a premium school district. Yes the overall price trend will always be up due to inflation, but for now it has really nowhere to go but down (this goes for the whole USA except for the most rural areas, not just Texas). Inventory is at a record low and we are in a historically peaked seller's market for a record and unsustainably long amount of time which has nowhere to go but trending back down toward's buyer's market or at least neutral. Interest rates aren't even the biggest factor. It's the fact that banks and credit unions aren't enforcing foreclosure as they should because of all the "covid" whining and bitching and government lobbyism to not foreclose. It's bullshit. The mortgagees signed a contract and should be foreclosed and forced to move if they are delinquent, regardless of circumstances. If I didn't get to use job loss as an excuse in 2018, if hundreds of thousands of Americans didn't get to use the last recession as an excuse from 2008-2011, then the "covid excuse" should absolutely NOT fly today. But, you know, the Democratic Party and big government.

[Millennial_Messiah]

Theres noticeably fewer good deals (compared to pre-covid or even the beginning of covid) out there for sure, and they're usually gone within a few days, tbh.
Not only are they "gone within a few days", they're actually non-existent if you actually know the industry right now tbh. They may look like good deals when they first hit the market, but agents have been dealing with literally dozens to even triple-digit offers over individual properties, which often turns what may look like a "good deal" on Realtor or Zillow into an overpriced one when the bidding war ends. This toxic multiple-offer-on-every-house environment has ruined the lives of countless buyers over the last few years and honestly I wouldn't mind if government stepped in and did something about it. Sellers have had it way too good of late, historically good.

[SnakeBoy]

Have you actually f'ing looked at the MLS, Realtor, or even Zillow (the latter is not my favorite source, btw)? Everything move in ready is way overpriced, almost 150/sqft for decent suburban neighborhood homes in or around any of the big Texas cities, and edging 200/sqft for new constructions. Tack on more for anything with any decent acreage or other amenities or in a premium school district. Yes the overall price trend will always be up due to inflation, but for now it has really nowhere to go but down (this goes for the whole USA except for the most rural areas, not just Texas). Inventory is at a record low and we are in a historically peaked seller's market for a record and unsustainably long amount of time which has nowhere to go but trending back down toward's buyer's market or at least neutral. Interest rates aren't even the biggest factor. It's the fact that banks and credit unions aren't enforcing foreclosure as they should because of all the "covid" whining and bitching and government lobbyism to not foreclose. It's bullshit. The mortgagees signed a contract and should be foreclosed and forced to move if they are delinquent, regardless of circumstances. If I didn't get to use job loss as an excuse in 2018, if hundreds of thousands of Americans didn't get to use the last recession as an excuse from 2008-2011, then the "covid excuse" should absolutely NOT fly today. But, you know, the Democratic Party and big government.

Texas population is going to grow by at least 20% per decade for the next 2-3 decades. Idk why you expect Texas to become a buyer's market anytime soon. As far as another foreclosure/financial crisis, the Fed has made clear "unlimited" support for shitty assets.

[Millennial_Messiah]

Texas population is going to grow by at least 20% per decade for the next 2-3 decades. Idk why you expect Texas to become a buyer's market anytime soon. As far as another foreclosure/financial crisis, the Fed has made clear "unlimited" support for shitty assets.

The government needs to have standard interest rates and keep their dirty hands off the real estate market.

It's not Texas, it's the entire USA. There is a natural ebb and flow process that has been in place for over half a century, since WWII in fact. It's roughly 8-10 years from crest-to-crest, trough-to-trough. It's been a seller's market for way too long across the USA overall, and cyclically it has nowhere to go but down right now.

[Millennial_Messiah]

https://charts.stocktwits.com/production/original_304602916.png

I used to work for that exact BoA Merrill team as a decision science contractor working with SAS Enterprise Miner, PowerBI, Tableau, SPSS, Qlik, Excel, and the like.

[RandomGuy]

It's been way too damn hot for way too many years. Particularly the housing/real estate market. It's way long overdue to cool down. Buyers haven't had a chance in over 7 years.

:rollin

How many new houses have to be built every year to house the increasing population?

[Millennial_Messiah]

:rollin

How many new houses have to be built every year to house the increasing population?

Shortage on new constructions is definitely an issue, builders need to start doing their jobs properly with proper velocity, tbh

[RandomGuy]

Well, it's happened in the past year even despite of COVID killing jobs... basically a year of nothing but stagflation. Both GOP/Dems at fault, but the blame is largely tilting toward the Dems as they have all 3 chambers in power now. And the government refuses to raise interest rates to protect consumers from this large-scale inflation that's been going on due to all this bullshit stimulus and borrowing due to ZIRP. Meanwhile people are still out of work and underemployed due to the plandemic.

:lol large-scale inflation

[RandomGuy]

the plandemic.

Every time I might give you any credit for at least trying to do critical thinking, you go and do this shit.

"plandemic" = the worst conspiracy theory garbage.

Why do you believe stupid shit like that?

[RandomGuy]

Shortage on new constructions is definitely an issue, builders need to start doing their jobs properly with proper velocity, tbh

That handles supply tho.

What about demand? Can't really consider one in isolation from the other.

[Millennial_Messiah]

That handles supply tho.

What about demand? Can't really consider one in isolation from the other.

Supply can be handled by
-Banks foreclosing now instead of being pussies with the COVID forbearance crap. Either pay your mortgage or GTFO the home you signed a contract to pay every month regardless of circumstances
-Build more houses for crying out loud

Demand can be curbed by
-jacking up interest rates to a more reasonable, long term mean rate, on par with what was in the 1990s
-increasing standards, FICO minimums, down payment % requirements, more regulation etc. on new mortgage applications. More strict standards. I wouldn't mind doing away with the FHA loans and making 20% minimum down payment federal law.


Needs to be handled with both supply and demand intervention. Homes should be a fair price, at least under 100/sqft for a decent suburban area. Buyers (responsible mortgagees and cash buyers) deserve a chance.

[Millennial_Messiah]

:lol large-scale inflation

Well the days of $1.xx milk and gas gallons are gone. We're back to middle-Obama era price standards.

[Millennial_Messiah]

My old friend from 2016- just made 34k in GME stock on his 401k in the last 2 months. So apparently he won't have to pay capital gains tax since he isn't withdrawing it and he says he'll only pay tax on it when he's 59.5 years old (if he lives that long, a big if)

[RandomGuy]

Well the days of $1.xx milk and gas gallons are gone. We're back to middle-Obama era price standards.

:lol not understanding supply/demand.

"democrats mean gas is suddenly more expensive, durr dee durr"

You sound like an idiot when you say things like that, you know this, right?

[RandomGuy]

Supply can be handled by
-Banks foreclosing now instead of being pussies with the COVID forbearance crap. Either pay your mortgage or GTFO the home you signed a contract to pay every month regardless of circumstances
-Build more houses for crying out loud

Demand can be curbed by
-jacking up interest rates to a more reasonable, long term mean rate, on par with what was in the 1990s
-increasing standards, FICO minimums, down payment % requirements, more regulation etc. on new mortgage applications. More strict standards. I wouldn't mind doing away with the FHA loans and making 20% minimum down payment federal law.


Needs to be handled with both supply and demand intervention. Homes should be a fair price, at least under 100/sqft for a decent suburban area. Buyers (responsible mortgagees and cash buyers) deserve a chance.

1990s era interest rates for a slower growing, aging population are stupid.

Spending/saving profiles change as populations age.

Your concept here assumes "nothing underlying the economy changed since 1990s", and that is absolutely not the case.

Further, you are missing how inefficient our economy is when it comes to health-care.

The US is in a nasty spiral where the efficient, well-working parts of our economy are going to be crowded out by healthcare spending which is horribly wasteful and stupid.

Long-term I would bet on europe for that reasons. Their tax+healthcare spending is lower.

[RandomGuy]

Even better than Europe in the long term, investment-wise is Africa.

Younger, healthier, more educated than many think. Asia will have to slow down their torrid pace of growth to a more settled developed world rate that matches their own aging, shrinking populations.

The US... is a shit-hole country, paralyzed by the worst kind of political paralysis into inaction, unable to solve its problems.

[Millennial_Messiah]

1990s era interest rates for a slower growing, aging population are stupid.

Spending/saving profiles change as populations age.

Your concept here assumes "nothing underlying the economy changed since 1990s", and that is absolutely not the case.

Further, you are missing how inefficient our economy is when it comes to health-care.

The US is in a nasty spiral where the efficient, well-working parts of our economy are going to be crowded out by healthcare spending which is horribly wasteful and stupid.

Long-term I would bet on europe for that reasons. Their tax+healthcare spending is lower.

Housing prices need to go down some how some way. This rabid seller's market has gone on way too long. It needs to be cyclical. Both buyers and sellers need to have a fair chance, albeit at different times of the economic/real estate cycle. That's how it's always worked.

I do agree with you and the Democrats in general on healthcare but Obamacare was stupid. A european social healthcare system is what we need, not pandering to the greedy pig insurance companies.

[Millennial_Messiah]

Even better than Europe in the long term, investment-wise is Africa.

Younger, healthier, more educated than many think. Asia will have to slow down their torrid pace of growth to a more settled developed world rate that matches their own aging, shrinking populations.

The US... is a shit-hole country, paralyzed by the worst kind of political paralysis into inaction, unable to solve its problems.

Africa is still infested with tropical diseases, wild savage humans, starvation, blood diamond wars, impoverishment, etc. Very few reasonably inhabitable weather places there, Nairobi Kenya area is one of them, South Africa is another.

The USA is a shithole made possible by the two party system of death and corporatocracy

[Millennial_Messiah]

The 20% mandatory down payment regulation/federal ordinance would go a long way into solving the housing shortage. Too many paycheck-to-paycheck fuckers able to get into houses for next to nothing. And when they can't make their payments on time they always find workarounds and excuses from unemployment to COVID to cheat the system and not get foreclosed. It's bullshit.

[RandomGuy]

Africa is still infested with tropical diseases, wild savage humans, starvation, blood diamond wars, impoverishment, etc. Very few reasonably inhabitable weather places there, Nairobi Kenya area is one of them, South Africa is another.

The USA is a shithole made possible by the two party system of death and corporatocracy

... aaand there is the racism.

Invest based on that.

I will stick to data. Views based on reality tend to produce better decisions.

[RandomGuy]

Housing prices need to go down some how some way. This rabid seller's market has gone on way too long. It needs to be cyclical. Both buyers and sellers need to have a fair chance, albeit at different times of the economic/real estate cycle. That's how it's always worked.

I do agree with you and the Democrats in general on healthcare but Obamacare was stupid. A european social healthcare system is what we need, not pandering to the greedy pig insurance companies.

Fully agree. Our system costs more, vastly more, and is hugely inefficient at every level.

[Millennial_Messiah]

... aaand there is the racism.

Invest based on that.

I will stick to data. Views based on reality tend to produce better decisions.
The wifi and cell service rate is less than 5% throughout Africa, compare that to 94% of USA coverage and 97.8% European. The average connection speed is 1.4g in Africa with a majority of the land with zero service. That's worse than the 1990s in America/Europe.

[Millennial_Messiah]

Fully agree. Our system costs more, vastly more, and is hugely inefficient at every level.

The only worry is, with socialized medicine, will supply of medical professionals / professional care meet demand? If there is a shortage then long lines will happen. If I have to wait 3 weeks for a prescription refill or 2 months to get a CT scan on a potentially dangerous malignant cancer, that could mean the difference between life and death. Obviously lower prices and more availability drives demand up from a consumer perspective. Government will have to max out resources and incentives for healthcare professionals and cut corners elsewhere, like education (which I'm okay with).

[RandomGuy]

The wifi and cell service rate is less than 5% throughout Africa, compare that to 94% of USA coverage and 97.8% European. The average connection speed is 1.4g in Africa with a majority of the land with zero service. That's worse than the 1990s in America/Europe.

https://www.ted.com/talks/hans_rosling_let_my_dataset_change_your_mindset

well meaning humor, that references the video:
A chimp would probably do better than you on his test. Literally.

RIP Hans, a true great.

[RandomGuy]

The only worry is, with socialized medicine, will supply of medical professionals / professional care meet demand? If there is a shortage then long lines will happen. If I have to wait 3 weeks for a prescription refill or 2 months to get a CT scan on a potentially dangerous malignant cancer, that could mean the difference between life and death. Obviously lower prices and more availability drives demand up from a consumer perspective. Government will have to max out resources and incentives for healthcare professionals and cut corners elsewhere, like education (which I'm okay with).

(shrugs) the 28 other countries that do it seem to have no more or less problem than we do. Doctors report being happier anyways, since they don't have to chase billing and push unneeded services.

Government can do health insurance vastly cheaper than our current system.

[Millennial_Messiah]

(shrugs) the 28 other countries that do it seem to have no more or less problem than we do. Doctors report being happier anyways, since they don't have to chase billing and push unneeded services.

Government can do health insurance vastly cheaper than our current system.
yeah fuck that, fuck the insurance companies

but also what about malpractice?

[SnakeBoy]

1990s era interest rates for a slower growing, aging population are stupid.

Spending/saving profiles change as populations age.




What happens to the largest generation after 2025?

How does it affect their savings/spending profile?

How does that affect interest rates?

[Millennial_Messiah]

Inventory on the housing market starting to creep up. Need more foreclosures. With the unemployment% you would expect more foreclosures. COVID is a sorry excuse. Interest rates going up would be a good thing.

[InRareForm]

Weird time with the the market. Lot of new investors not used to losses and extended periods time of losses. They may give up trading or ease up on the fomo plays.

The Amazon of Africa (jumia) still looks like a great long term play imo

[Millennial_Messiah]

Weird time with the the market. Lot of new investors not used to losses and extended periods time of losses. They may give up trading or ease up on the fomo plays.

The Amazon of Africa (jumia) still looks like a great long term play imo
Last time I checked the Dow Jones was still setting records and it's in the 33K's now. Spring is historically an upper not a downer. We might see it climb even more until around mid summer then a sharp tank.

[RandomGuy]

What happens to the largest generation after 2025?

How does it affect their savings/spending profile?

How does that affect interest rates?

After getting over my shock at what looks like an honest attempt at a conversation, I remembered you are a dishonest, evil human being, who would never answer such questions in return, and the impulse to answer your questions vanished like a fart in the wind.

Keep investing according to your politics. Please.

[Millennial_Messiah]

After getting over my shock at what looks like an honest attempt at a conversation, I remembered you are a dishonest, evil human being, who would never answer such questions in return, and the impulse to answer your questions vanished like a fart in the wind.

Keep investing according to your politics. Please.

Yeah you have to look at the data and historical trends not politics, but the Trump stimulus was obviously to try to get him re-elected when naturally the economy was going to fall to the bottom of the standard sinusoidal trough as it naturally should which was probably bad for Trump's re-election chances but healthy for the economy in the long term. Instead, these stimuluses (stimuli?) are going to guarantee an even worse recession in the near future. The stimuli just kicking the can down the curb, you can't simply remove that can.