Manu Ginobili: NBA most clutch player

[Rick Von Braun]

At 82games.com (http://www.82games.com/), there is a 3-part article that analyzes the performance of all NBA players in the clutch.

From the last article:

"All right, a lot of people would balk at the notion of Manu Ginobili as the NBA's most clutch player. The facts though are he is very productive on offense (#6 in the league in points per minute during clutch stages), draws an incredible number of shooting fouls (#8 and the top perimeter player), knocks down the free throws (81%), creates his own shot (only 8% of his clutch FGM are assisted), holds his counterpart to sub-par performance (.342 eFG and only 1.9 Assists to 3.1 Turnovers), and while his +9 plus/minus doesn't seem like much, the Spurs have actually been -21 when he's off the court during crunch time, good for the #12 on/off or Clutch Roland Rating in the league. Did we mention that 60% of his crunch time shots are taken inside? Manu takes it to the hole!

This will not sway Kobe Bryant fans any, who are still reveling in his incredible recent performance in the 4th quarter against Charlotte. That however is the problem in a nutshell -- people remember the game where he's brilliant, and forget the games (yes, plural) where he falls short. Let's state it one more time, Kobe is a good clutch player, but not currently the best. For further evidence that Kobe is not infallible, you might want to check out his 03-04 playoff clutch efforts (http://www.82games.com/P3LAL4E.HTM), when he had a Field Goal Percentage of, ahem, 28%..."

I recommend reading it, since it is quite instructive.

The articles can be found at:

Part I: Clutch Scorers (http://www.82games.com/clutchplayers.htm)

Part II: Plus/Minus, Rebounding, Passing (http://www.82games.com/clutchplay2.htm)

Part III: PER Ratings, Counterpart PER, Overall Ratings (http://www.82games.com/clutchplay3.htm)

[TDfan2007]

:lmao :lmao :lmao :lmao :lmao :lmao :lmao :lmao :lmao

[ALVAREZ6]

word.

[timvp]

Ginobili has been great this season. When he's attacking the basket in the fourth, the Spurs are tough to beat.

[ducks]

so does that mean he is greater then james?

[timvp]

No.

[ducks]

so being more clutch then someone else does not make you actually the better player :fro

[timvp]

Correct.

[MaNuMaNiAc]

noone is saying Manu is better than Kobe, that would be ridiculous

[Nikos]

It means Manu is being used more for his scoring this season, especially in the clutch.

And for the most part he has been an efficient and effective clutch player. He may not have made last second shots to win games, but he does all the things that he needs to be doing for his team to contend in the clutch (such as scoring, getting to the line and converting).

Of course it does not mean he is better than the elite SG's of the league, but it is nice to know Ginobili can usually be counted on to attack the basket and convert at the FT line in the clutch.

[ALVAREZ6]

Of course it does not mean he is better than the elite SG's of the league, but it is nice to know Ginobili can usually be counted on to attack the basket and convert at the FT line in the clutch.
Isn't Manu himself one of the elite SG's in the league?

After all he is an all-star....

[Nikos]

Depends on who and what you classify as being elite. He isn't on the level of the Kobe's, Iversons, McGrady's, and Wade's of the league. Of course it depends on who you classify as being an SG, but there are a good handful of elite swingmen who are obviously better players than Manu.

[thispego]

Isn't Manu himself one of the elite SG's in the league?

After all he is an all-star....
word.

[BronxCowboy]

He isn't on the level of the Kobe's, Iversons, McGrady's, and Wade's of the league.

He's not better than all of those guys, but if he could play 40 mpg and was his teams primary scoring option like those guys are, he'd be right there.

[Rummpd]

"Depends on who and what you classify as being elite. He isn't on the level of the Kobe's, Iversons, McGrady's, and Wade's of the league. Of course it depends on who you classify as being an SG, but there are a good handful of elite swingmen who are obviously better players than Manu."

Considering he is a better defender than many on that list, led his team to Olympic Gold and has a ring a case could be made is severely under-rated. Is he a Kobe no?

But what other ones on that list have ever won anything?

[Nikos]

Ginobili has won a lot as a leader INTERNATIONALLY. Not in the NBA.

It's like comparing apples to oranges. Using the whole 'winner' mantra is a little tired because we do not know what Ginobili would do as a team leader in the NBA, and we do not know what Tmac or Ivy would do Internationally under similiar circumstances as Manu. It's an illogical comparison.

But as it stands, as an NBA player Ginobili has not proven any more than these guys. Sure the International titles are impressive and show he can be a solid leader on the floor. But the fact remains is he has not actually done it FOR A SEASON in the NBA.

Until he starts putting up 21-5-5 in this system, I cannot say he is on the same plain as the ELITE SWINGMEN on the league.

[BronxCowboy]

Until he starts putting up 21-5-5 in this system, I cannot say he is on the same plain as the ELITE SWINGMEN on the league.

You've got to be kidding. Name one swingman in the league that puts up 21-5-5 in 30 minutes. Just one. Bryant, McGrady, Iverson all play over 40mpg. If Manu's numbers are projected out to 40mpg, they're 21.5/6/5. And he's the third scoring option on the team, unlike all of those guys.

The only legitimate knock on Ginobili as one of the league's elite wings is that he may not be durable enough to play that many minutes. And that still remains to be seen, IMO.

BTW,You think Ivy would score 21 a game on this team, in this system??? What about as the third scoring option? Dude takes half of the shots for his team, and misses most of them. You think Pop would put up with that?

[xcoriate]

If Manu's numbers are projected out to 40mpg, they're 21.5/6/5

Shit I had no idea they were that good per 40

thats freakin awesome.

[Nikos]

You've got to be kidding. Name one swingman in the league that puts up 21-5-5 in 30 minutes. Just one. Bryant, McGrady, Iverson all play over 40mpg. If Manu's numbers are projected out to 40mpg, they're 21.5/6/5. And he's the third scoring option on the team, unlike all of those guys.

The only legitimate knock on Ginobili as one of the league's elite wings is that he may not be durable enough to play that many minutes. And that still remains to be seen, IMO.

BTW,You think Ivy would score 21 a game on this team, in this system??? What about as the third scoring option? Dude takes half of the shots for his team, and misses most of them. You think Pop would put up with that?

I'm not kidding at all. If Manu could play just as effectively for 40mpg as he does 30mpg he would at least get 35-36mpg by Pop. If you increase Manu's possesions dramatically, your likely to see law of diminishing returns in terms of his efficiency. Thats just the way it usually works out. In some cases a player might get better with more possesions, but I don't think Manu's efficiency would INCREASE if you gave him leadership of a team and 17 or 18 shots. Usually young players are the guys who fall into the category of getting better with more possesions, because they are actually still growing as basketball players at a higher degree than middle age veterans.

I think Manu's passing and assist to TO ratio would be better, but his scoring efficiency would go down with a heavy increase in minutes.

[smeagol]

AI, Tmac and Wade are amazing players, but they haven't won shit. Internationally or in the NBA.

[BronxCowboy]

Nikos, his scoring efficiency could go down a long way before it got as bad as AI's. Check it out. It doesn't need to increase at all. The only question is if he could play more minutes at the same level that he does now. It's not a question of him getting better. He's already that good for 30 minutes. If he got 16-17 shots per game he could score 24 ppg even if his efficiency did drop off some.

[Nikos]

The only question is if he could play more minutes at the same level that he does now.

Well that is a BIG question. I tend to think his scoring efficiency would go down, but his ballhandling/passing efficiency would go up. But that is just a guess. Manu is more of an all around player, not a pure scorer if you play him 40mpg. Even he alludes to this as well. In 30-35mpg he can be used as an excellent scorer per minute, while also providing a solid floor game. But all that changes with more possesions, minutes, pressure, and responsilibity.

I think Manu still can improve on his turnover situation. That is his main weakness and my only gripe on his game thus far. I think he can limit those turnovers even despite his 'wild' style of play.

As for those other elite guards, well they are better than Manu. Wade and Iverson may not have won a title, but they are playing better basketball than Manu. They have accomplished more in the NBA as individual talents and how it fits with respect to their team.

Winning on the international stage is nice, and I respect Manu a lot for it. He has shown his character, leadership, and his ability to win despite his team being the underdog. But I am not going to use that as a major basis for saying he is a better NBA player than the NBA's elite swing men. His international accolades are not enough to elevate him over and into the NBA's elite. He is an all star, but not a dominant player in this league at his position. He is an above average player, and an all star teamatte. A championship type of player. But he is no more of a leader of an NBA team than Tmac, Iverson, Kobe, or Wade. He has not proven as much as these guys on the NBA stage. I hope he can continue to improve into next season and eventually be a borderline elite/perenial all star calibur NBA guard. He has the goods to possibly even be a better player than he is. But who knows, if he will get any better? Who knows if he really could lead an NBA team any better than Iverson or McGrady?

Until he improves a bit on his turnovers, plays a few more minutes and/or increases his scoring I do not think he can be considered elite. Maybe if the Spurs win the title in convincing fashion a few times, and he continues to put up 17-18ppg-5rpg/4apg , than maybe you can make a better case for him being a perenial all star and elite guard in this league.

I hope he gets there, but he is not there...yet.

[ALVAREZ6]

Bronx Cowboy wins.

[Rummpd]

Nikos:

Stats comparisons are always BS. Uh Manu was an all-star this year already, whose to say he is not already going to be a periannual all-star? The WCF coaches know how special he is - it is just not in his stats! He is also a hell of a defender.

I have a feeling interchange him with Wade (where there are not both Parker and Duncan getting points and both teams would have about same record and players statistics, Wade and Manu might well flip) In other words, despite Wade's statistical breakout year I am not convinced yet he is "heads and shoulders above Manu". TMac has arguebly the most talent of all you list but time will tell, so far = big loser in NBA.

[picnroll]

Check out Wade's TOs.

Manu has become the go to player in the 4th. TD and TP often carry the team for three and then clear out and let Manu do his work in the 4th when the games on the line. Same as Wade this year. Same as kobe in past years. And usually he delivers as the 82game.com article points out. The clutch player on a dominant team. To me that makes him an elite player.

[Rick Von Braun]

Nikos, his scoring efficiency could go down a long way before it got as bad as AI's. Check it out. It doesn't need to increase at all. The only question is if he could play more minutes at the same level that he does now. It's not a question of him getting better. He's already that good for 30 minutes. If he got 16-17 shots per game he could score 24 ppg even if his efficiency did drop off some.
Furthermore, assuming he would play 35 minutes, his scoring efficiency in the extra 5 minutes should have to drop very drastically in order for his wins over replacements to remain the same (same contribution to the team). As Kevin Pelton (http://sonicscentral.com/apbrmetrics/viewtopic.php?t=85&start=0) pointed out,

"... In the specific discussion of Ginobili, here's how I'd look at it. I have him rated at a winning percentage of .721, which produces 7.4 wins above replacement player with his current playing time. Say we boosted him to 35 minutes per game arbitrarily. That would push him to 8.7 WARP. To get back down to 7.4, we have to lower his overall winning percentage to about .680.

Doing the math, my rating of Ginobili's individual winning percentage would have to sink to .466 or lower in those extra five minutes per game to make him less valuable at 35 mpg than at 30 mpg..."

That scenario is very improbable.

Moreover, Justin Kubatko (http://www.basketball-reference.com/) performed a nice statistical analysis (http://sonicscentral.com/apbrmetrics/viewtopic.php?t=85&start=14) on the relationship between increase minutes played and efficiency for a sample of players from 1978 to 2004.

"I did a small study using player-seasons from 1978-2004. To be included in the study, a player had to (a) see an increase of at least 50% in minutes per game from one season to the next and (b) play at least 41 games in each season. These criteria gave me 465 player-seasons. In 346 of these seasons (74.41%), the player's PER increased with an increase in playing time. The mean change in PER was 1.55 and the median was 1.58. The range of changes for the middle 50% was -0.05 to 3.18.

Because younger players are more likely to improve (and see an increase in playing time) than older players, I decided to add an age requirement to the criteria above. Now players had to be at least 30 years old in the target season to be inlcuded in the sample. The results were similar: in 42 of the 58 seasons (72.41%) the player's PER increased with an increase in playing time. The mean change in PER was 0.98 and the median was 1.19. The range of changes for the middle 50% was -0.21 to 2.32."

These results show categorically that the common intuition about drastic decrease in efficiency with increase minutes is amiss.

[MaNuMaNiAc]

Well that is a BIG question. I tend to think his scoring efficiency would go down, but his ballhandling/passing efficiency would go up. But that is just a guess. Manu is more of an all around player, not a pure scorer if you play him 40mpg. Even he alludes to this as well. In 30-35mpg he can be used as an excellent scorer per minute, while also providing a solid floor game. But all that changes with more possesions, minutes, pressure, and responsilibity.

I think Manu still can improve on his turnover situation. That is his main weakness and my only gripe on his game thus far. I think he can limit those turnovers even despite his 'wild' style of play.

As for those other elite guards, well they are better than Manu. Wade and Iverson may not have won a title, but they are playing better basketball than Manu. They have accomplished more in the NBA as individual talents and how it fits with respect to their team.

Winning on the international stage is nice, and I respect Manu a lot for it. He has shown his character, leadership, and his ability to win despite his team being the underdog. But I am not going to use that as a major basis for saying he is a better NBA player than the NBA's elite swing men. His international accolades are not enough to elevate him over and into the NBA's elite. He is an all star, but not a dominant player in this league at his position. He is an above average player, and an all star teamatte. A championship type of player. But he is no more of a leader of an NBA team than Tmac, Iverson, Kobe, or Wade. He has not proven as much as these guys on the NBA stage. I hope he can continue to improve into next season and eventually be a borderline elite/perenial all star calibur NBA guard. He has the goods to possibly even be a better player than he is. But who knows, if he will get any better? Who knows if he really could lead an NBA team any better than Iverson or McGrady?

Until he improves a bit on his turnovers, plays a few more minutes and/or increases his scoring I do not think he can be considered elite. Maybe if the Spurs win the title in convincing fashion a few times, and he continues to put up 17-18ppg-5rpg/4apg , than maybe you can make a better case for him being a perenial all star and elite guard in this league.

I hope he gets there, but he is not there...yet.
You have to be kidding!! Besides Kobe your whole list has won exactly shit on the NBA or elsewhere, and now you're telling me that for Manu to be compared to the likes of Wade, the Spurs have to win a couple of more titles?? That is bullshit. Now I'm not saying that Manu IS actually better than those guys 'cause let's face it, he's not better than Kobe or Tracy. But Wade??

[emveepee]

I'd put Manu among the elite SGs in the league. Imagine if he played for teams like Atlanta or the Bobcats - team's where he'd very likely be a major part of the offense. I bet all my vbookie cash that if he played for such teams, he would've scored at least a pair of 50 pt. games by now! Under Pop, he is tamed somewhat. Can't wait for Pop to unleash him in the play-offs!

[Rick Von Braun]

People are very hard to convince, even when presented objective proof. People arguing about Manu NOT being an elite SG eludes me, in particular in a Spurs board. We could argue which particular player is the best, but not even consider him an elite SG is unbelievable.

This is a player who is ranked SECOND in the entire league in the last Roland Rankings (http://www.82games.com/rolandratings0405.htm), and SECOND in raw +/- points. The same player that forms the BEST NBA pair of players (http://www.82games.com/ppairs0405.htm) tandem with Tim Duncan, and have been the best pair of NBA players all season long. The very same player that was elected to the All-Star game by the votes of the coaches, neither fans nor media.

Back in February, before the All-Star game, Nikos asked the very same question in a different board (http://sonicscentral.com/apbrmetrics/) (for those more statistically inclined). Here are some of the answers (http://sonicscentral.com/apbrmetrics/viewtopic.php?p=784#784):

Nikos:

Well thats another thing, I do not know anyone who would call Ginobili even close to being the best SG in the league -- even amongst non-all stars.

I think he is underrated in terms of stats, but hes obviously not on the same level as VC, McGrady, Wade, Pierce, Lebron, Ray, Kobe and all those other big names.

Honestly if you replaced Manu with those guys, do you honestly feel the Spurs could not field a similiar or better record than right now?


Bob Chaikin (http://www.bballsports3.com/):

"not only is he on the same level, simulation shows that manu ginobili, as of the stats of this past weekend, is clearly - CLEARLY - the best SG in the nba today....

replace k.bryant for 40 min/g on the lakers with ginobili for 40 min/g and simulation shows the team is 4 games better per 82 games, mcgrady on the rockets 3 games better per 82 games, v.carter on the nets 8 games better, p.pierce on the celtics 4 games better, j.richardson on the warriors 8 games better, d.wade on the heat 4 games better, r.allen on the sonice 8 games better, l.hughes on the wizards 4 games better...

ginobili has a Scoring FG% of 60%, is a very good to excellent defender, gets more steals per minute than any SG other than hughes, is a very good to excellent defensive rebounder for an SG, and does very little to hurt his team. he - along with duncan - is key to the spurs being 39-11 right now (that's 64 projected wins for the year)..."


Dan Rosenbaum (http://www.uncg.edu/bae/people/rosenbaum/nba.html):

"In my stuff (which has not not fully incorporated this year's plus/minus yet), Manu Ginobili is rated #7 overall this season and is the highest rated SG (if LeBron is counted as a SF)."


Kevin Pelton (http://www.hoopsworld.com/Page%2023.shtml):

"At last check, I have Ginobili 10th in the league overall and second to Dwyane Wade amongst shooting guards. He, like Duncan, is hurt to some extent or another by the Spurs giving their starters so much rest."


Nikos:

"Couldn't Duncan be a large reason Manu and many other Spurs are capable of being very efficient? I am aware that he is a huge difference maker and has a very nice PER, Win%, and overall efficiency -- but there has to be a different Skill/Scoring curve for Manu, if say Duncan was not around. But I guess we will never know for sure. Suffice to say he is an excellent role player/difference maker."


Bob Chaikin (http://www.bballsports3.com/):

"there "...has to be..."? on the contrary of course we will know - there are numerous, multiple examples over the past couple of decades of players on teams playing with and without great teammates being just as good - if not better - without that superstar....

is kobe bryant really that much different without shaq? yes his numbers have dropped some but can you actually quantify any drop in his statistical performance this season as being due to shaq's absence?...

look at the two seasons michael jordan took a hiatus - scottie pippen was as just good as he ever was, even better in some respects (93-94, and most of 94-95). how could someone play as good as, if not better, without probably the best player of all-time? one of robert parrish's best season's statistically (88-89) came when larry bird was injured. does this mean bird could not make parish a "better" player when they did play together? of course not...

shawn marion is quietly having an MVP-type season. simulation shows he is almost as good as tim duncan this season, and that's no small feat. but is this due solely to the presence of steve nash? of amare stoudemire? of course not. marion had almost as good a campaign in 00-01, when neither was around (jason kidd and clifford robinson were around then). they certainly help, but they are not the reason for marion having such a great season. marion is just a really good player having a really good season, just like he did three years ago...

tracy mcgrady had probably his best season statistically in 02-03 when he had such stellar teammates as pat garrity, darrell armstrong (actually darrell was pretty good that season), mike miller, jacque vaughn, and a hefty shawn kemp. now he has a bonafide center in yao ming and he's not playing near the exceptional level he did in 02-03 (he's still awfully good tho)...

i don't think there is any question manu ginobili can take alot more chances on defense with tim duncan around, and he looks like a better defender because any time his man gets by him there's duncan to back him up. but manu ginobili is still one heckuva player on his own accord..."


Dan Rosenbaum (http://www.uncg.edu/bae/people/rosenbaum/nba.html):

"I watch a lot of San Antonio games and have noticed a couple things. First of all, Duncan has been at less than full strength for much of the season. And on offense, it has meant that he has a tough time getting really high percentage shots. And that has resulted in the offense being run less through him and more through Ginobili/Parker. The commentators seem to be saying the same thing, as they remark about how this is a different team than in past years.

Second, Duncan sits for very long stretches of time, so we get to see the Spurs when he is out of the game. The Spurs are clearly worse without Duncan, but they manage OK. I am eager to see how Ginobili does with the adjusted plus/minus this season, but my impression is that Ginobili is a big part of why the Spurs are much better this season than in past seasons. Ginobili is also a terror on the defensive end with all of the steals that he gets. He must lead the league in steals on passes from the guy he is guarding.

Finally, he has a very high true shooting percentage, which given that he creates a lot of his own shots, is really important for a team like the Spurs that sometimes struggles to create good shots (or at least has in the past). I have him producing 3.6 extra points per 40 minutes, which is good for fifth in the league (behind Amare, Fortson, Hoiberg, and Yao).

Extra points are equal to 2 * (true shooting attempts per 40 minutes) * (own true shooting percentage - (team true shooting percentage - 2 leaguewide standard devations of true shooting percentage)). It is a rough measure of how many points a player is producing relative to taking all of his shooting opportunities and giving them to a player who shoots two standard deviations less that the team mean for true shooting percentage. So it is a combination of true shooting percentage, true shot attempts, and team shooting percentage. It does not factor in turnovers, offensive rebounds, assists, steals, etc."

[Nikos]

RVB I know Manu is underratted and could produce well even with more minutes. All I am saying is he has to get those minutes to prove he is on the level of the semi-elite guards in the league.

He is not better than Lebron, Wade, Tmac, Kobe, Iverson, Pierce, VC, or Ray. That is all I am saying. You can argue semantics about Tmac and VC not being winners, but he is still not proven to be better in the NBA than those guys.

I would put Manu on par with the Michael Redd's of the league and such. Manu is more all around, but Redd is probably the more pure scorer. But I still want to see more from Manu to put him in the same class. He hasn't seperated himself yet from those border line all star guards such as Michael Redd and maybe a Larry Hughes (who I also think is underratted).

All I am indicating is that he is not proven to be any better than those 6-7 elite names I mentioned above. I am probably forgetting one or two, but you get the idea.

RVB, as far as my questions on the stat boards, I try to be objective about them and not prop up Manu too much. I knew how high he ranked in all those stats before asking the questions -- but I wanted to present it in such a way where I did not pump Manu up too much. I wanted more natural responses from those guys before I came out and said "Ginobili is more than likely an underrated player in this league, and the stats show it -- discuss....."

As an aside Rick, I am curious to see Dan's rankings by seasons end or even right now. He has an ADJUSTED +/- that has less noise than Roland. I am pretty sure you know what I am talking about. Do you know if he posted anything on it yet?

Thanks

[Nikos]

Bronx Cowboy wins.

I am sure he does, so as long as he props up Manu more than I do.

Do you ever look at things objectively at all? Instead of blindly pumping Manu up to be the next Michael Jordan?

[Nikos]

Check out Wade's TOs.

Manu has become the go to player in the 4th. TD and TP often carry the team for three and then clear out and let Manu do his work in the 4th when the games on the line. Same as Wade this year. Same as kobe in past years. And usually he delivers as the 82game.com article points out. The clutch player on a dominant team. To me that makes him an elite player.

To an extent I agree with this. And I have noted that Manu has been clutch and very valuable for this team offensively. But that doesn't quite propel him with the top 5-6 SG's in the league (unless you count Pierce, Lebron, Tmac, and VC as SF's).

I would like to see what Manu could do with 33-34mpg. I hope he gets a chance to play more minutes, and produces. But if Pop does not give him a chance, and if Manu's body does not hold up -- we will never know.

I won't be convinced until the Spurs win the title and Manu plays a big role in it. Until then, Manu has won no more than Kobe, Wade, Tmac etc... in the NBA. He did help the team win in 2002-03, but he wasn't a main focus of the offense (top 2-3 in possesion usage). The team that year was mostly Duncan and role player by commitee. Different players stepped up at different times. Manu played a big role in that sense. But this year he has a much bigger responsibility.

If Manu can make his mark this playoffs, and play better with increased minutes, I have less problem with the whole "winner" mantra. We know Manu is an excellent role player since the day he came in the league, and in general a championship character and player. But I hope to see him be an even bigger part of a championship when it is all said and done this season.

[Rick Von Braun]

RVB I know Manu is underratted and could produce well even with more minutes. All I am saying is he has to get those minutes to prove he is on the level of the semi-elite guards in the league.

He is not better than Lebron, Wade, Tmac, Kobe, Iverson, Pierce, VC, or Ray. That is all I am saying. You can argue semantics about Tmac and VC not being winners, but he is still not proven to be better in the NBA than those guys.

I would put Manu on par with the Michael Redd's of the league and such. Manu is more all around, but Redd is probably the more pure scorer. But I still want to see more from Manu to put him in the same class. He hasn't seperated himself yet from those border line all star guards such as Michael Redd and maybe a Larry Hughes (who I also think is underratted).

All I am indicating is that he is not proven to be any better than those 6-7 elite names I mentioned above. I am probably forgetting one or two, but you get the idea.Well, if hard statistical evidence didn't convince you, there is nothing else I can say to change your mind. So far in this season, I rank Manu as an elite perimeter player, and one could argue that only Wade could be ranked higher (assuming Lebron is SF). Players like Kobe, AI (PG this year), VC, TMac, etc., are having good to very good years, but not as good as Manu statistically. The knock on Manu and/or Wade, is that this is their first year they have made a qualitative jump in their games, and one has to wonder if they will be able to sustain this type of performance in years to come. I think so, but this is debatable. The other established players live off reputation and hype as much as actual performances to be considered elite.

I agree that Hughes is an underrated talent as well.


As an aside Rick, I am curious to see Dan's rankings by seasons end or even right now. He has an ADJUSTED +/- that has less noise than Roland. I am pretty sure you know what I am talking about. Do you know if he posted anything on it yet?

ThanksAFAIK, the adjusted +/- are calculated by Roland (may be with help from Dan) from 82games.com (since he has all the data traces), but those rankings are not made available to the public directly (you should contact them directly if you are interested). Dan uses those adjusted +/- rankings and a statistical index derived from those rankings in his DanVal metric, to measure NBA players' performance.

Dan has not posted any rankings yet.

[Nikos]

If we are talking per minute, Manu has been as good as most guards in the league. That is obvious. But I want to see him get more possessions and a few more minutes until I consider him in the same class as my alleged 'elite' list.

Maybe he can get a few more minutes/possessions next season if he continues to assert himself and stays healthy. But I want to see how his stats hold up with a few more possesions/touches a game, simultaneously with increased minutes.

I value certain statistics and like to look at the big picture, but comparing Manu to players who use a lot more possesions while contributing to team wins and playing more minutes is tough. Manu's stats tell me he is a huge difference maker who is used mostly for his scoring efficiency and overall solid floor game in 30mpg. I want to see what he can do with more minutes and an increased role and if his ultra efficient game this season translates in the playoffs (perhaps it can, and then some?).

[timvp]

I'm not kidding at all. If Manu could play just as effectively for 40mpg as he does 30mpg he would at least get 35-36mpg by Pop. If you increase Manu's possesions dramatically, your likely to see law of diminishing returns in terms of his efficiency.

:wow

I've been trying to pound that thought into your head for over two years. Good to see that it finally took.

[timvp]

In a nut shell, Manu is not doubt an elite player in this league. There are few players I'd rather have in the fourth quarter on my team.

The only thing that holds him back from being a flawless player is that he doesn't have the stamina to play a regular season at over 30 minutes per game. I'm not only talking injuries here (although that is a big part of it), I'm also talking about Manu asking out of games. To illustrate how tired he gets playing his 110% style, this season he asked out with 5 minutes gone in the first and 3 minutes gone in the third. I don't know of another NBA starter who would ask out after that few of minutes to start a half.

But every player has to have a flaw. That is Manu's.

[Nikos]

:wow

I've been trying to pound that thought into your head for over two years. Good to see that it finally took.

I said MORE effective, not neccesarily that he cannot play 35-36mpg. 40mpg is a stretch, I agree -- but not 35mpg.

Do you even read what I type? I am simply saying he is more efficient at 30mpg than at 40mpg, thats not an new concept. That does not mean I do not think he can play 35-36mpg.

[timvp]

I said MORE effective, not neccesarily that he cannot play 35-36mpg. 40mpg is a stretch, I agree -- but not 35mpg.

Do you even read what I type? I am simply saying he is more efficient at 30mpg than at 40mpg, thats not an new concept. That does not mean I do not think he cannot play 35-36mpg.

Read what you wrote.


If Manu could play just as effectively for 40mpg as he does 30mpg he would at least get 35-36mpg by Pop. If you increase Manu's possesions dramatically, your likely to see law of diminishing returns in terms of his efficiency.

You are trying to play both sides of the fence. You know he can't be as effective playing 35 minutes per game. Not only does he not have the stamina and would risk further injury, but his effectiveness will decrease throughout the season.

Can Manu play 35 minutes per game in the regular season? Of course. Should he? No.

You know this.

[Nikos]

Read what you wrote.



You are trying to play both sides of the fence. You know he can't be as effective playing 35 minutes per game. Not only does he not have the stamina and would risk further injury, but his effectiveness will decrease throughout the season.

Can Manu play 35 minutes per game in the regular season? Of course. Should he? No.

You know this.

I am not playing both sides of the fence. Deep down I feel Manu can play 35mpg in a season. You do not.

That is the only point I am arguing.

I am telling you now, I BELEIVE MANU can play 35mpg. You do not. At least that is how it seems with many of your posts. So what is it your drilling in my head?

[timvp]

So you believe that Manu can make it through a regular season averaging 35 minutes per game? You put no stock into him being a player who plays so hard that he is exhausted after games at his current minutes played? You put no stock into him asking out of games because he's tired?

Amazing.

[T Park]

manu played 30 some odd minutes a game, for three staight games.

He hasn't been seen since.


What does that tell you niko.

[Nikos]

I put some stock into it. But I think if he played for Phoenix or Denver less DEFENSIVE oriented teams, he could play 35mpg for a SEASON. Yes.

I think mentally he would compromise some of his style and energy (mostly on D) if the team needed him to play more minutes. If you think that makes him half the player he is now then so be it. But to me Manu looks more controlled and less of a gambler on defense when he played as a leader for Argentina.

With Pop its mostly about defense. Hence the reason Bowen gets 30mpg+. Hence the reason guys like Devin play as much or more than Brent Barry. Its like a platoon system of players who can play defense and also contribute on the offense ever so often.

Manu expends a lot of energy on D, but even in some of his best games I have seen from him he wasn't playing that extremely hard defense. His main asset this season is his offense. But he stills busts his but on defense at times, just not as much as he used to.

Play him more minutes, and his FG% might go down. But I bet his Assists to Turnover ratio goes up. Right now he and Tony are Second Option A and B.

Just think if he was in Phoenix with Nash/Amare and Marion. Think he couldn't focus a bit more playing an overall game and be less worried about playing hard defense and being an ultra efficient scorer? In the suns uptempo system with less stress on defense he could play an overall floor game and still be of value on defense. He could gamble and it probably wouldn't matter as much. Because Phoenix's offense would be even more ridiculous than it is right now.

Thank goodness Manu is a Spur, but he still could fit other systems and play more than 30mpg if the team didn't have exceptional wing talent playing with him.

Not that I want that to happen. I just think in the Spurs system he gets pigeon-holed as an energy guy (or at least did last season). I like to think he can play more than 30mpg come playoff time and in the regular season even if the Spurs needed him too.

If not then I will worry a bit come playoff time. There is no gauruntee he can carry us of every 4th quarter even if he is WELL RESTED. I rather play him 33-34mpg if he can handle it (which I hope he can).

Who knows, maybe your right? But as of now I think he can up his minutes in the playoffs.

[Nikos]

manu played 30 some odd minutes a game, for three staight games.

He hasn't been seen since.


What does that tell you niko.


Your post tells me absolutely nothing.

[Rick Von Braun]

Moreover, Justin Kubatko (http://www.basketball-reference.com/) performed a nice statistical analysis (http://sonicscentral.com/apbrmetrics/viewtopic.php?t=85&start=14) on the relationship between increase minutes played and efficiency for a sample of players from 1978 to 2004.

"I did a small study using player-seasons from 1978-2004. To be included in the study, a player had to (a) see an increase of at least 50% in minutes per game from one season to the next and (b) play at least 41 games in each season. These criteria gave me 465 player-seasons. In 346 of these seasons (74.41%), the player's PER increased with an increase in playing time. The mean change in PER was 1.55 and the median was 1.58. The range of changes for the middle 50% was -0.05 to 3.18.

Because younger players are more likely to improve (and see an increase in playing time) than older players, I decided to add an age requirement to the criteria above. Now players had to be at least 30 years old in the target season to be inlcuded in the sample. The results were similar: in 42 of the 58 seasons (72.41%) the player's PER increased with an increase in playing time. The mean change in PER was 0.98 and the median was 1.19. The range of changes for the middle 50% was -0.21 to 2.32."

These results show categorically that the common intuition about drastic decrease in efficiency with increase minutes is amiss.In case you miss it:

These results show categorically that the common intuition about drastic decrease in efficiency with increase minutes is amiss.

The funny thing is that we are talking about a ~16% increase in minutes, not even 50% (from ~30min to ~35min).

The onus is on the people that don't believe this, to prove otherwise. The ball is in your court.

[Nikos]

I just want to see Manu get the chance to prove this. That is all. I am not saying his efficiency will drop a lot, but if I were to bet it might drop at least to some degree. There is no proof of this, but there is also no proof that playing Manu 40mpg would make him the same player in terms of efficiency per minute. Not many players in the prime of their careers go from playing 30mpg to 40mpg and producing similiar numbers per minute. I could see if this was applied to younger players, but Manu either this season or next season will be into his prime. It's not as though he has TONS of improvement to do, if any at all. He could improve a bit in the system, and his GLORY STAT (Pts + Reb +Ast) might look better, but your not going to see drastic changes if you increase his possession usage per minute.

[MI21]

AI, Tmac and Wade are amazing players, but they haven't won shit. Internationally or in the NBA.

Is this the same AI that has won a MVP, ROY, multiple All-NBA teams, some scoring titles and lead a very injured squad into the NBA Finals?

[MaNuMaNiAc]

So you believe that Manu can make it through a regular season averaging 35 minutes per game? You put no stock into him being a player who plays so hard that he is exhausted after games at his current minutes played? You put no stock into him asking out of games because he's tired?

Amazing.
you put no stock on him having no real resting time for almost 2 seasons? I going to go ahead and give you that Manu couldn't go for 40 mpg but 35 is well within his reach, and I can't wait to gloat if/when that happens next season. LOL

[MaNuMaNiAc]

Is this the same AI that has won a MVP, ROY, multiple All-NBA teams, some scoring titles and lead a very injured squad into the NBA Finals?
I know, I know, AI IS better than Manu, no argument there. But seriously though, take a look at all those awards, how many of them translated into team success?

[Karl Mundt]

Gone unnoticed:
http://www.82games.com/clutchplay3.htm

1 Ginobili
2 Stoudemire
3 Nash
4 Wade
5 Nowitzki
6 Camby
7 Griffin
8 James
9 Stackhouse
10 Allen
11 Gordon
12 Terry
13 Hughes
14 Lewis
15 O'Neal
16 O'Neal
17 Daniels
18 Kidd
19 Tinsley
20 Ridnour
21 Bryant
22 Garnett
23 Gooden
24 Richardson
25 Cassell
26 Billups
27 D.Jones
28 Boykins
29 Francis
30 Iverson
31 Marion
32 Jamison
33 Marshall
34 Hudson
35 Carter
36 Randolph
37 Smith
38 Redd
39 Jefferson
40 Hassell
41 Davis
42 Chandler
43 Ilgauskas
44 Butler
45 Claxton
46 Mihm
47 Van Horn
48 Radmanovic
49 Anthony
50 Turkoglu

Hedo more clutch than Tim?

Also if you look at clutch ratings by team, you will notice Nazr and Tony should rank in the bottom ten in the league by the site's calculations (if you take into account only the ratings of players who play 25% or more during crunch time):

http://www.82games.com/clutchplay4.htm

[Nikos]

It is because of the PER differential, not what Hedo does on offense. Hedo's PER (offense) is VERY low if you look at the list. It is because his defense (and his teams) is pretty good against SF's in the clutch.

[MI21]

I know, I know, AI IS better than Manu, no argument there. But seriously though, take a look at all those awards, how many of them translated into team success?

Well he did get his team to the finals. Makes playoffs in most years with very little talent and the team always seems to be injured. Not every team is like the Spurs and gets to the playoffs just by showing up :) Strangely enough he is having a fantastic year this year but the team isn't going to well, even with Webber. Not sure whats going on there.