Chris Broussard gives Spurs 10% chance to win Title

[BlairForceDejuan]

per ESPN first take

Magic: 5%
Spurs 10%
Lakers: 25%
Heat: 28%
Celtics: 32%

[tmtcsc]

Fuck em.

[CubanMustGo]

per ESPN first take

Magic: 5%
Spurs 10%
Lakers: 25%
Magic: 28%
Celtics: 32%

He gives the Magic a 5% and a 28% chance? :lol

[BlairForceDejuan]

He gives the Magic a 5% and a 28% chance? :lol


haha oops, thanks

[Bambililos]

lol

[dbreiden83080]

I think it is fair actually. We got swept outta round 2 by the Suns last year. Duncan is older and not what he was and the Spurs have not won a title in a few years. So despite the record people think we have a lot to prove and we do have a lot to prove. That said i think this is the deepest most focused Spurs team we have had since maybe 2005.

[Rummpd]

Just means he is somewhere between 11-90% wrong - fine with me.

I would love to have 1:10 odds right now and the current lines by Vegas are at: http://www.vegasinsider.com/nba/

Spurs have gone from 20:1 to 9:2 already.

Same site has a poll where now 36% believe Spurs will win WC vs. 47% LAL and that is about right IMO (Mavs at 9%, Jazz 5% and others 3%)

[cheguevara]

I don't see how the Heat have a large chance. THey have a terrible coach, no bigmen and the worst end of a close game plays in the NBA.(just let LeHype throw it up from anywhere)

I'd say:
Heat 10%
Magic 10%
Spurs 20%
Lakers 25%
Celtics 35%

[FromWayDowntown]

the worst end of a close game plays in the NBA.(just let LeHype throw it up from anywhere)

From what they did last night in a tight game, this seems absolutely true. Twice they had last-minute possessions (one that ended the 4th quarter and one late in overtime) that ended in Lebron heaves from more than 25 feet.

With those guys, you have to be able to get a better shot than that.

[tdunk21]

douchard is a huge lebron fan......this doesnt surprise me...

[celldweller]

I think it is fair actually. We got swept outta round 2 by the Suns last year. Duncan is older and not what he was and the Spurs have not won a title in a few years. So despite the record people think we have a lot to prove and we do have a lot to prove. That said i think this is the deepest most focused Spurs team we have had since maybe 2005.

This.

[Mel_13]

At the beginning of the season, we would have been happy to know that the Spurs would be among the top 5 contenders at mid-season.

[Bito Corleone]

Just means he is somewhere between 11-90% wrong - fine with me.

I would love to have 1:10 odds right now and the current lines by Vegas are at: http://www.vegasinsider.com/nba/

Spurs have gone from 20:1 to 9:2 already.

Same site has a poll where now 36% believe Spurs will win WC vs. 47% LAL and that is about right IMO (Mavs at 9%, Jazz 5% and others 3%)

Not that I'm in any kind of position to question Vegas odds-makers, but I'm curious to know how the Spurs have only gone from 20/1 to 9/2 when the Heat have gone from 25/1 to 2/1...especially with 3 out of the 5 (including Miami) odds-on favorites in the East.

The Heat will have the harder road in getting to, and winning, the Finals than the Spurs will. In the West, the Lakers (who have been playing poorly) are the only current threat to the Spurs. In the East, the Heat have real competetion from Bos, Orl, Chi, and will more than likely have to play 2 of those 3 teams on the road to the Finals.

The Spurs will have an easier road (if they get there) to the Finals, and will likely have home court, yet the Heat are tied for the favorite to win the Championship...doesn't make much sense to me.


*I fully expect the Lakers to be playing much better than they are now come playoff time, and they are two time defending champs. So when I say the Spurs will have an easier road I am not dismissing LA, but rather whichever other two team the Spurs will play before them.

[Kool Bob Love]

"so you're telling me there's a chance?"


http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_0JjK2c-5-N0/Sx_jiEha7mI/AAAAAAAAD3I/yw1FQU16BjU/s320/a_chance.jpeg

[SnakeBoy]

I think it is fair actually. We got swept outta round 2 by the Suns last year. Duncan is older and not what he was and the Spurs have not won a title in a few years. So despite the record people think we have a lot to prove and we do have a lot to prove. That said i think this is the deepest most focused Spurs team we have had since maybe 2005.

That logic would be fine to defend Broussard's rankings except that he gives the Heat a 28% chance and they have a lot more to prove than the Spurs.

[Mel_13]

That logic would be fine to defend Broussard's rankings except that he gives the Heat a 28% chance and they have a lot more to prove than the Spurs.

ESPN commentators are contractually obligated to overhype the Heat.

[dbreiden83080]

That logic would be fine to defend Broussard's rankings except that he gives the Heat a 28% chance and they have a lot more to prove than the Spurs.

ESPN is under contract to kiss the shit out of Lebron's ass..

It's in the manual..

[WeNeedLength]

"so you're telling me there's a chance?"


http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_0JjK2c-5-N0/Sx_jiEha7mI/AAAAAAAAD3I/yw1FQU16BjU/s320/a_chance.jpeg

:rollinYes!

[TampaDude]

Spurs 100%

^ Truth 100%

[kidd_91]

Not that I'm in any kind of position to question Vegas odds-makers, but I'm curious to know how the Spurs have only gone from 20/1 to 9/2 when the Heat have gone from 25/1 to 2/1...especially with 3 out of the 5 (including Miami) odds-on favorites in the East.

The Heat will have the harder road in getting to, and winning, the Finals than the Spurs will. In the West, the Lakers (who have been playing poorly) are the only current threat to the Spurs. In the East, the Heat have real competetion from Bos, Orl, Chi, and will more than likely have to play 2 of those 3 teams on the road to the Finals.

The Spurs will have an easier road (if they get there) to the Finals, and will likely have home court, yet the Heat are tied for the favorite to win the Championship...doesn't make much sense to me.


*I fully expect the Lakers to be playing much better than they are now come playoff time, and they are two time defending champs. So when I say the Spurs will have an easier road I am not dismissing LA, but rather whichever other two team the Spurs will play before them.

odds are set then adjusted based on the amount of bets they receive. The initial odds had the heat as underdogs to win, but as the majority of people have gone out and bet on them the odds have changed to reduce the payoff. The new odds only affect people placing bets now, if you placed your bet at the beginning of the season at 24:1 odds your odds and payout will stay the same.

[jj1194]

I would say:

Lakers 30% Back to back champs, still are better than record
Celtics 35% Should and could have one last year
Spurs 20% Best record in league, huge wins over leagues best
Heat 10% Still unproven, light backcourt. Choker Lebron
Magic 5% Trade helping but they still have van gundy...

[easy7]

All that the best team needs is one chance..

[DesignatedT]

The Heat have no business being ahead of the Spurs. I don't mind LA and BOS.

[Dex]

The Heat have no business being ahead of the Spurs. I don't mind LA and BOS.

Agreed. The Heat bandwagon must be filled with musical chairs, because I've never seen people hop on and off so quickly.

Heat get Lebron? They are great!
Heat start 9-8? They are terrible!
Heat have a great December? They are great!
Heat lose 4 straight? They are terrible!

You get the idea.

Frankly, that team has shown very little consistency or chemistry, which was the big question mark for them going in. Furthermore, everybody knows that the Heat going anywhere will hinge on their Big Three staying healthy, which...they have not.

Still, the hype machine is going full steam ahead.

[arodz]

per ESPN first take

Magic: 5%
Spurs 10%
Lakers: 25%
Heat: 28%
Celtics: 32%

http://www.gifsoup.com/webroot/animatedgifs/43387_o.gif

[Horse]

Fuck that cocksucker what is he ever right about anyway?

[DPG21920]

The Heat have no business being ahead of the Spurs. I don't mind LA and BOS.

The Heat have something that is sustainable and correlates highly with championship basketball: A top defense.

[Lakers999]

Fuck boston and fuck their fans....!!!! God dammit i hate those guys more than i hate the spurs

[tmtcsc]

Those rankings were awful. 10 % for the Spurs ? He said it was a good percentage and higher than he even expected for the Spurs. Before the season started, I might have agreed with him but the Spurs have already shown a strong resolve and a 'refuse to lose' attitude.

The only team that should be ranked above the Spurs is the Celtics. That's it and that's because they beat us without Garnett. We'll see how they do when they come to San Antonio.

The Lakers aren't playing good basketball but the defending Champs deserve to be in Top 5 consideration:

1.Celtics (35%)
2.Spurs (30%)
3.Lakers (20%)
4.Heat (10%)
5. Magic (5%)

There you go.

[mabrignani]

Broussard is a wanna be nigga, I swear when u put him at a table of other black guys he tries to act all ######ish, but with the white folk he acts all proper

[703 Spurz]

I think it is fair actually. We got swept outta round 2 by the Suns last year. Duncan is older and not what he was and the Spurs have not won a title in a few years. So despite the record people think we have a lot to prove and we do have a lot to prove. That said i think this is the deepest most focused Spurs team we have had since maybe 2005.

By your logic, only the Lakers and Celtics would be favored then since they were there last year.

The Magic have never won a title so why are they being considered? The Heat won a few years ago but with a different team.

[jimo2305]

"so you're telling me there's a chance?"


http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_0JjK2c-5-N0/Sx_jiEha7mI/AAAAAAAAD3I/yw1FQU16BjU/s320/a_chance.jpeg

:lol:lol:lol

[phxspurfan]

Those rankings were awful. 10 % for the Spurs ? He said it was a good percentage and higher than he even expected for the Spurs. Before the season started, I might have agreed with him but the Spurs have already shown a strong resolve and a 'refuse to lose' attitude.

The only team that should be ranked above the Spurs is the Celtics. That's it and that's because they beat us without Garnett. We'll see how they do when they come to San Antonio.

The Lakers aren't playing good basketball but the defending Champs deserve to be in Top 5 consideration:

1.Celtics (35%)
2.Spurs (30%)
3.Lakers (20%)
4.Heat (10%)
5. Magic (5%)

There you go.

Wrong, the Lakers still deserve to be ranked higher. The championship goes through the defending champs.

[NASpurs]

It's funny because as much as you guys shit on Hollinger and his crazy kooky formulas, he has the Spurs leading at 29%.

http://espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/playoffodds

[tmtcsc]

Wrong, the Lakers still deserve to be ranked higher. The championship goes through the defending champs.

My ranking includes how teams are playing right now. Even though we have the best record, the Celtics beat us without Garnett and have won games despite having injuries.

The Lakers have been playing bad basketball. Even when we beat them, it seemed that it wasn't the Lakers of the last 2 years. They've lost their hunger and have reverted to playing selfish basketball.

I'm sure the Spurs will still have to go through the Lakers to win and I wouldn't have it any other way. But right now, we are playing better TEAM ball and I would give us a better chance at winning the title than them.

[tmtcsc]

It's funny because as much as you guys shit on Hollinger and his crazy kooky formulas, he has the Spurs leading at 29%.

http://espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/playoffodds

Yeah, those numbers are still jacked up.

[crc21209]

The Heat have no business being ahead of the Spurs. I don't mind LA and BOS.

This. LA and Boston can and should be rightfully ahead of the Spurs seeing as they were last years Finals representatives, but the Heat? I don't think so. And the Spurs chances should be alot more than 10% as well...

[jestersmash]

Heat 2nd most likely to win a championship this year? :lmao

If you asked me who I think has the best chance to win as many championships as possible in the next, say, 7 years, I would pick the Heat.

If you ask me which team has the best chance of winning a championship this year, the Heat are not even close to being on the top of my list.

For this year I'd say

1. Boston
2. Lakers
3/4. Heat/Spurs

I don't find Broussard's lack of confidence in San Antonio to be over the top or an insult. SA clearly has front court deficiencies as we are right now with an underdeveloped Splitter.

I find his over-confidence in the Heat to be a joke though. They far and away have the worst bench in the league, and that's during the regular season without much pressure to perform.

In the same vein I'm not counting on Bonner showing up in the playoffs when assessing the Spurs chances despite the fact that he's been shooting the 3 extremely well all season. Though, I am counting on the threat of his 3 being enough to space the floor well for Parker/Gino during the minutes that he does get.

How often do radically new mega-star teams win championships their first year?

[wontstartdumbthreads]

ESPN commentators are contractually obligated to overhype the Heat.

The NBA TV crew not so much. McHale and Steve Smith were all over them last night for their last plays in both 4th qtr and OT. A couple of jack up threes. The Heat are too big of boneheads to win 4 playoff series in a row.

[buttsR4rebounding]

I give Chris Broussard a 1% chance of saying something worth listening to.

[jestersmash]

The Heat have far more fundamental issues than jacking up ill-advised 3s to try and win the game. Yesterday's game was not an indication of the Heat at their best. I'm hardly considering that terrible 4th quarter/overtime performance when assessing their overall chances.

To me the Heat are rank 3 at best to win the championship right now (possibly better than the Spurs; I don't think it's ludicrous to rank Heat at 3 and Spurs at 4 right now). That said, anybody putting them in the top 2 in lieu of the Celtics/Lakers haven't been watching Celtics basketball (particularly) all season long.

[jestersmash]

The Heat have far more fundamental issues than jacking up ill-advised 3s to try and win the game. Yesterday's game was not an indication of the Heat at their best. I'm hardly considering that terrible 4th quarter/overtime performance when assessing their overall chances.

To me the Heat are rank 3 at best to win the championship right now (possibly better than the Spurs; I don't think it's ludicrous to rank Heat at 3 and Spurs at 4 right now). That said, anybody putting them in the top 2 in lieu of the Celtics/Lakers haven't been watching Celtics basketball (particularly) all season long.

[wontstartdumbthreads]

The Heat have far more fundamental issues than jacking up ill-advised 3s to try and win the game. Yesterday's game was not an indication of the Heat at their best. I'm hardly considering that terrible 4th quarter/overtime performance when assessing their overall chances.

To me the Heat are rank 3 at best to win the championship right now (possibly better than the Spurs; I don't think it's ludicrous to rank Heat at 3 and Spurs at 4 right now). That said, anybody putting them in the top 2 in lieu of the Celtics/Lakers haven't been watching Celtics basketball (particularly) all season long.

Of course that wasn't an indication of the Heat at their best. But it seems there is a big drop off between the Heat at their best and the Heat at their next to best. I haven't seem a lot of their games but to me it looks like they have the potential to suck worse than any of the other contenders.

[phxspurfan]

It's funny because as much as you guys shit on Hollinger and his crazy kooky formulas, he has the Spurs leading at 29%.

http://espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/playoffodds

Hollinger's formulas always seem to favor regular-reason dominating teams. I swear every time I've looked at those percentages I've seen Dallas up where they shouldn't be (considering their playoff history).

[DeadlyDynasty]

The Heat have something that is sustainable and correlates highly with championship basketball: A top defense.

This.

[gospursgojas]

ESPN commentators are contractually obligated to overhype the Heat.


ESPN is under contract to kiss the shit out of Lebron's ass..

It's in the manual..

This

[wontstartdumbthreads]

The Heat have something that is sustainable and correlates highly with championship basketball: A top defense.

The Heat have something that has a negative correlation with championship basketball: Lebron James.

[ALVAREZ6]

Quite frankly I would pretty much agree...I'd say they have a 10-20% chance. And this is still relatively big, these probabilities have the best case scenario for these powerhouses. You never know who's going to be healthy, and who's going to be at the top of their game when the time comes. Timing is huge.

[ALVAREZ6]

Heat 2nd most likely to win a championship this year? :lmao

If you asked me who I think has the best chance to win as many championships as possible in the next, say, 7 years, I would pick the Heat.

If you ask me which team has the best chance of winning a championship this year, the Heat are not even close to being on the top of my list.

For this year I'd say

1. Boston
2. Lakers
3/4. Heat/Spurs

I'd consider tied for 3 pretty close to being at the top of the list, but that's just me. To be honest, it's all going to come down to who's healthiest and playing the best at the time. It's not like the Celtics are WAY above the Lakers or the Spurs, I'd say minimally. The differences in the strength of these teams are not really large enough to even make it worth making a list in my opinion. I can see the Spurs playing great this year and going back to the finals, but I can also picture them losing to the Lakers, and neither outcome is heavily favored to me.

[BlackSwordsMan]

10% chance more than I give them.

[Big P]

who?

[Ace]

People read to much into these...

Heat are still a work in progress. Haslem will be back before the playoffs start and Miller is still trying to get going. Bosh also needs to play harder like he did against LA. He has gone back to settling for jumpers.

Lakers are much better than they are playing. Gasol doesn't seem healthy or is gassed.

Boston if healthy will come out the east. Its not the size of the front court that worries me but Rondo having his way.

Spurs could upset the Lakers if they improve on D and Duncan can turn it up. They need Splitter to get going and conserve Manu as well.

[BUMP]

Spurs have not even sniffed a title since LA and Boston turned into elite teams.

I'm surprised he even has the Spurs chances that high

[ElNono]

BUMP enjoying life in the fast lane after surviving that ELE :lol

[EricB]

With what good defensive big man do the heat have this supposed "elite defense"


Erick damper?
Joel Anthony? Lmao


Btw whoever said haslem was coming back. That would be news to him...

[spurspokesman]

ESPN commentators are contractually obligated to overhype the Heat.
This

[mathbzh]

per ESPN first take

Magic: 5%
Spurs 10%
Lakers: 25%
Heat: 28%
Celtics: 32%

Where does he pull these numbers from?

I don't like the Hollinger's projections much, but at least he does not calculate probabilities from thin air.



Heat: 28%
Celtics: 32%
Magic 5%

That is 65% for the Eastern teams?
He considers the Eastern team will have 65% chance to win the finals?
That makes no sense.

[mingus]

there's two guys i won't listen to: Jalen Rose and Brussard. i can listen to anyone, but those two guys' opinions and observations are so fuckin stupid that i literally can't watch them.

[dbestpro]

I think if these sports writers who give odds should take bets just to prove their point. If not, then the only folks that matter are in Nevada.

Vegas odds as of 1/20/2011

Celtics 9/2
Lakers 13/5
Heat 9/4
Spurs 11/2
Magic 10/1
Mavs 18/1
Thunder 22/1
Knicks 50/1
TWolves 800/1

[mingus]

With what good defensive big man do the heat have this supposed "elite defense"


Erick damper?
Joel Anthony? Lmao


Btw whoever said haslem was coming back. That would be news to him...

Joel Anthony is a good team defender, and he's a very underrated one-on-one defender. one of Amare's worst game's this year came when Anthony was defending him straight up.

Heat defense, when it's rolling, and it usually is, is deadly because of its perimiter length. Wade and Bron have put the work in defensively this year. they're so athletic and long on the perimiter. a lot of similarities between the two 3-peat Bulls teams and the Heat from a defensive prespective in that both defenses feature two elite perimiter defenders. obviously, this meakes having a dominant inside defender less of a concern (though Rodman was a great one-on-one defender).

[mingus]

i think the Heat can have the best defensive team in the league if they can get Haslem playing again. right now they have potential to be 2nd best, behind only Boston. scary team defensively this year, and if in the future they shore it up somehow with a FA signing or trade or through the draft i think they have the potential to be maybe the best defensive team since maybe ever. better than '99 SA, '04 Pistons, and '08 Boston if they can do that.