Kirk Nowitzki
10-10-2011, 07:16 PM
As we've been discussing in the Rodgers thread, it's pretty clear that Peyton Manning at least deserved more than the 4 MVPs he won after the craptastic showing the Colts have made without him this year. You can save the Greatest Of All-Time debates for when his career is over, but through five games this season Peyton Manning is clearly worth 12 wins and a playoff berth to your football team.
The Colts might win one game this year. Their front office wants to put Manning on the field sometime this year if he can get healthy. Aside from the obvious risk of re-injury, I think this is a smart idea to see what you have in a 75-80% Manning. If he comes back to a 0-12 team and puts a few wins on the board, then you know you're good for another four to five years and use your top 3 draft pick to get him some help on the defensive side of the ball, or a stud WR because Reggie Wayne is almost to the end of his career.
But say Manning doesn't get healthy and can't play this season, and the Colts finish 1-15 with the #1 overall on lockdown. You can't see what you need to see to know your franchise QB is game ready in practice, so in all likelihood we're stuck waiting until Week 1 of 2012 to see if Manning can still do it. This gives the Colts and their terrible front office a couple options. Drafting Andrew Luck and sitting him behind Manning the way Green Bay did with Favre and Rodgers isn't a bad scenario considering the Pack's recent Super Bowl win, but Rodgers fell to the bottom of the first round. You're not going to find very many teams willing to burn the #1 overall on a player who won't play a game until Year 3 or later. If Luck sits behind Manning until Manning retires, he's undoubtedly going to want some serious cash without having ever played in the NFL.
Keeping Manning and Luck will tie up a lot of their cash and most likely cockblock them from getting quality talent around Manning during his final years. And then Luck will end up taking over the same shitty team in three years. As much as it seems like a no-brainer, the Colts can't draft Luck and keep both of their QBs. I think the Colts have the following options come April:
1. Draft Andrew Luck and trade Peyton Manning
The Colts could easily get a first and second rounder for Manning, maybe even two 1sts. If the Colts see anything from Manning that makes them worry about his ability to play at the same level during the final years of his career, I think you have to let him go, take Luck and use the picks from trading Manning to at least give Luck some talent in the beginning of his career. Luck pretty much guarantees them another decade of relevance and it will be up to them to not make the same mistakes they made with Manning in not surrounding him with winners. Of course if Luck busts, then they shot their own franchise in the foot.
2. Draft Andrew Luck and trade him sometime in Year 1
I think this is the most likely scenario because they're not going to know what they have in Peyton until next season. If he comes back in 2012 and is his usual dominant self, then they can shop Luck and probably get a first & second for him. They can then use those draft picks to beef the team and give Manning a solid shot at another Super Bowl win before he retires.
3. Trade the 2012 #1 overall pick
This scenario will only come to light if Manning comes back at the end of the season and wins every game he plays in yet not costing them the #1, letting the Colts know he's back and able to contend in the AFC for the remainder of his career. I could easily see them getting two first round picks in a trade for the 2012 #1. At this point we're looking at the same as the back end of scenario #2, get Manning some help for the last years of his career. If they play their cards right in the draft the Colts could possibly go back to back and send Manning out with three Super Bowl wins. Of course, they won't get there if Jim Caldwell is still their coach, but that's another issue altogether.
So it's draft day in 2012. You're Bill Polian (assuming he isn't fired after this atrocious season). What do you do?
The Colts might win one game this year. Their front office wants to put Manning on the field sometime this year if he can get healthy. Aside from the obvious risk of re-injury, I think this is a smart idea to see what you have in a 75-80% Manning. If he comes back to a 0-12 team and puts a few wins on the board, then you know you're good for another four to five years and use your top 3 draft pick to get him some help on the defensive side of the ball, or a stud WR because Reggie Wayne is almost to the end of his career.
But say Manning doesn't get healthy and can't play this season, and the Colts finish 1-15 with the #1 overall on lockdown. You can't see what you need to see to know your franchise QB is game ready in practice, so in all likelihood we're stuck waiting until Week 1 of 2012 to see if Manning can still do it. This gives the Colts and their terrible front office a couple options. Drafting Andrew Luck and sitting him behind Manning the way Green Bay did with Favre and Rodgers isn't a bad scenario considering the Pack's recent Super Bowl win, but Rodgers fell to the bottom of the first round. You're not going to find very many teams willing to burn the #1 overall on a player who won't play a game until Year 3 or later. If Luck sits behind Manning until Manning retires, he's undoubtedly going to want some serious cash without having ever played in the NFL.
Keeping Manning and Luck will tie up a lot of their cash and most likely cockblock them from getting quality talent around Manning during his final years. And then Luck will end up taking over the same shitty team in three years. As much as it seems like a no-brainer, the Colts can't draft Luck and keep both of their QBs. I think the Colts have the following options come April:
1. Draft Andrew Luck and trade Peyton Manning
The Colts could easily get a first and second rounder for Manning, maybe even two 1sts. If the Colts see anything from Manning that makes them worry about his ability to play at the same level during the final years of his career, I think you have to let him go, take Luck and use the picks from trading Manning to at least give Luck some talent in the beginning of his career. Luck pretty much guarantees them another decade of relevance and it will be up to them to not make the same mistakes they made with Manning in not surrounding him with winners. Of course if Luck busts, then they shot their own franchise in the foot.
2. Draft Andrew Luck and trade him sometime in Year 1
I think this is the most likely scenario because they're not going to know what they have in Peyton until next season. If he comes back in 2012 and is his usual dominant self, then they can shop Luck and probably get a first & second for him. They can then use those draft picks to beef the team and give Manning a solid shot at another Super Bowl win before he retires.
3. Trade the 2012 #1 overall pick
This scenario will only come to light if Manning comes back at the end of the season and wins every game he plays in yet not costing them the #1, letting the Colts know he's back and able to contend in the AFC for the remainder of his career. I could easily see them getting two first round picks in a trade for the 2012 #1. At this point we're looking at the same as the back end of scenario #2, get Manning some help for the last years of his career. If they play their cards right in the draft the Colts could possibly go back to back and send Manning out with three Super Bowl wins. Of course, they won't get there if Jim Caldwell is still their coach, but that's another issue altogether.
So it's draft day in 2012. You're Bill Polian (assuming he isn't fired after this atrocious season). What do you do?