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Definitely draft Luck.
As we've been discussing in the Rodgers thread, it's pretty clear that Peyton Manning at least deserved more than the 4 MVPs he won after the craptastic showing the Colts have made without him this year. You can save the Greatest Of All-Time debates for when his career is over, but through five games this season Peyton Manning is clearly worth 12 wins and a playoff berth to your football team.
The Colts might win one game this year. Their front office wants to put Manning on the field sometime this year if he can get healthy. Aside from the obvious risk of re-injury, I think this is a smart idea to see what you have in a 75-80% Manning. If he comes back to a 0-12 team and puts a few wins on the board, then you know you're good for another four to five years and use your top 3 draft pick to get him some help on the defensive side of the ball, or a stud WR because Reggie Wayne is almost to the end of his career.
But say Manning doesn't get healthy and can't play this season, and the Colts finish 1-15 with the #1 overall on lockdown. You can't see what you need to see to know your franchise QB is game ready in practice, so in all likelihood we're stuck waiting until Week 1 of 2012 to see if Manning can still do it. This gives the Colts and their terrible front office a couple options. Drafting Andrew Luck and sitting him behind Manning the way Green Bay did with Favre and Rodgers isn't a bad scenario considering the Pack's recent Super Bowl win, but Rodgers fell to the bottom of the first round. You're not going to find very many teams willing to burn the #1 overall on a player who won't play a game until Year 3 or later. If Luck sits behind Manning until Manning retires, he's undoubtedly going to want some serious cash without having ever played in the NFL.
Keeping Manning and Luck will tie up a lot of their cash and most likely block them from getting quality talent around Manning during his final years. And then Luck will end up taking over the same ty team in three years. As much as it seems like a no-brainer, the Colts can't draft Luck and keep both of their QBs. I think the Colts have the following options come April:
1. Draft Andrew Luck and trade Peyton Manning
The Colts could easily get a first and second rounder for Manning, maybe even two 1sts. If the Colts see anything from Manning that makes them worry about his ability to play at the same level during the final years of his career, I think you have to let him go, take Luck and use the picks from trading Manning to at least give Luck some talent in the beginning of his career. Luck pretty much guarantees them another decade of relevance and it will be up to them to not make the same mistakes they made with Manning in not surrounding him with winners. Of course if Luck busts, then they shot their own franchise in the foot.
2. Draft Andrew Luck and trade him sometime in Year 1
I think this is the most likely scenario because they're not going to know what they have in Peyton until next season. If he comes back in 2012 and is his usual dominant self, then they can shop Luck and probably get a first & second for him. They can then use those draft picks to beef the team and give Manning a solid shot at another Super Bowl win before he retires.
3. Trade the 2012 #1 overall pick
This scenario will only come to light if Manning comes back at the end of the season and wins every game he plays in yet not costing them the #1, letting the Colts know he's back and able to contend in the AFC for the remainder of his career. I could easily see them getting two first round picks in a trade for the 2012 #1. At this point we're looking at the same as the back end of scenario #2, get Manning some help for the last years of his career. If they play their cards right in the draft the Colts could possibly go back to back and send Manning out with three Super Bowl wins. Of course, they won't get there if Jim Caldwell is still their coach, but that's another issue altogether.
So it's draft day in 2012. You're Bill Polian (assuming he isn't fired after this atrocious season). What do you do?
Definitely draft Luck.
They would draft Luck as their QB of the future. Luck would be the starting QB in the 2013 season.
Manning is waaaaaaaaaaaay too narcissistic to let them draft a QB for the future who'd do nothing to help him win a superbowl immediately. That'll never happen.
Trade Manning if you believe in Luck. NFL owners always hold on for too long (especially for RB's). They are afraid of giving up on someone too early and them still having a few years of success. Problem is, that rarely happens and if you can get a couple first rounders to go along with Luck, I think you do it.
I'm pretty much in this boat but the thing is Manning is guaranteed to make your team a playoff contender so if he goes to a team with a half decent defense and the Colts watch him win a Super Bowl before Luck does, they're gonna need some heavy duty degreaser to get that egg off their faces. The only real positive in keeping both of them is that Luck would get to learn from Manning, and I can only see that as a positive for the rest of his career. But like I said I think that will tie up too much money and cripple their ability to fill out the roster.
And DoK, I'm sure Manning's narcissistic draft input is well valued considering the Colts drafted a RB (2009) and DE (2010) in the first round despite already having Pro Bowlers at those positions. In the end it's up to Polian or whoever replaces him, as the last time the Colts had a season this bad Irsay flushed the entire front office and coaching staff.
Draft Luck and have him learn under Manning.
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