Surviving Manu Ginobili's Injury

[timvp]

Welp, that sucks. Manu Ginobili has a fractured fifth metacarpal in his shooting hand. To begin the season, Ginobili was playing MVP-caliber basketball. He was shooting better than ever, scoring at the rim and playing energetic defense. Overall, Ginobili was playing about as well as he possibly can play.

How long is he out?

It will depend on whether Ginobili needs surgery. From my research of similar injuries, if he doesn't need surgery, he'll likely be out 4-to-6 weeks. If Ginobili does need surgery, he'll be out about eight weeks.

The best case scenario is if Ginobili can heal as fast as Tony Parker did in 2010. That year, Parker fractured the fourth metacarpal in his shooting hand and was able to return in four weeks. (Then again, Parker is a quick healer while Ginobili ... is not.)

How many games will he miss?

If Ginobili is out four weeks, he'll miss 19 games and would be back just in time for the Rodeo Road Trip. If he's out six weeks, he'll miss 25 games. If Ginobili can't return for the full eight weeks, the Spurs will be without their star guard for 31 games. In that scenario, he'd be sidelined until a couple games after the All-Star break.

What's the silver lining?

I don't see a silver lining in this situation. To navigate this compressed schedule without running out of gas, the Spurs needed the Big Three healthy and sharing the load. Now, following this news, Tim Duncan and Tony Parker will have to expend a lot of energy just to keep the Spurs afloat. And when he eventually returns, Ginobili will have to go at 100 mph if San Antonio is to make the playoffs.

The slim hopes the Spurs had to win a championship this season rested on the team peaking at the right time. That may be an impossibility now.

Is it time to tank?

Tanking isn't going to happen right now. If the rest of the team stays healthy, they aren't going to lose enough games to properly tank. And with Duncan in perhaps his final season, there's no way the coaching staff tells him to stop trying. In theory, there's a good argument to be made with regards to taking advantage of what will be a top draft class. But the reality is the Spurs will fight as hard as possible to make the playoffs.

What record is needed to make the playoffs?

Six teams are a lock to make the playoffs: Dallas, OKC, Denver, Portland and both Los Angeleses. I don't count Memphis as a lock but they are very likely to be in. That would mean the Spurs are in a fight with everyone else. Out of that group, the best teams are likely Houston, Phoenix and maybe a surprise team like Minnesota.

The last two seasons, the Rockets have finished as the ninth seed with a record that translates to about 35-31 in this shortened season. If the Spurs can play .500 basketball with Ginobili out and remain in one piece, they should remain a strong bet for the playoffs. Even if the Spurs win only 40% of their games and Ginobili misses the full eight weeks, that would put San Antonio at 15-21, which would mean the Spurs would need to win about 20 of their final 30 games to get in.

So basically, if the Spurs can win half their games with Ginobili out, they should be okay. Slightly worse than that is still doable, provided they are capable of a sprint to the finish.

How do the Spurs suvive with Ginobili?

It won't be easy, that's for sure. Ginobili has been the best player on the team this year … and it hasn't been close at all.

To pick up the slack, here's what will be needed from the key players:

Tim Duncan
Let's not sugarcoat it: Tim Duncan, thus far, looks like he has reached the end of the road. Last year, even though his numbers were down, he was still a really good defender who was still capable of carrying the offense at times. This season? He's playing like an average NBA bigman -- and that's a colossal drop from any point in his career.

With Ginobili out, it would be nice if Duncan could do more. Problem is, I'm not sure he can. After losing weight in the offseason, he appears to simply not have the strength to hold his position on the low block, which has resulted in all of his post moves being nullified. For him to score down low, he's going to have to adjust and score more going east and west instead of toward the rim. Duncan also needs to rely on his jumper more than ever.

Truthfully, I'm not convinced Duncan can pick up any of the slack. I expect him to get better (11 points and eight rebounds per game on 45% shooting should be attainable) but others will need to rise to the occasion if the Spurs hope to survive sans Ginobili. The days of Duncan putting this team on his back are over.

Tony Parker
When it comes to distributing the basketball, Parker has been better than ever this season. He's handing out assists at a career-high rate and turning the ball over at a career-low rate. While that's a plus, Parker's ability to score the basketball himself has been missing in action thus far. He's averaging only 13.2 points per game on 39.3% shooting from the field.

Taking a closer look at his numbers, the outside jumper hasn't been the problem for Parker this season. He's 14-for-35 (40%) on shots 10 feet and out, which is better than he's shot from that range in the last few years. Parker, instead, is having trouble finishing at the rim (45% instead of his usual 65%) and hitting his floaters (25% instead of his usual 53%).

While it's possible that Parker has lost some athleticism and can no longer finish as well near the basket, I think he'll be able to turn it around. Without Ginobili, Parker is going to have to pick it up scoring-wise; at least 20 points per game would be a good goal. Career-best distributing alone won't be enough.

Richard Jefferson
On the surface, Richard Jefferson seems to be having a really good year offensively. His shooting percentages are high and he's scoring better than he ever has as a Spur. But a closer look shows that his numbers are hollow.

One of Jefferson's main strengths the last two seasons has been his ability to get to the free throw line. In fact, when the Spurs traded for him, his high free throw rate was perhaps the thing the Spurs liked most. This year, he has a grand total of three free throw attempts (one of which was a technical free throw). And it's easy to see why: Jefferson simply doesn't drive to the basket anymore. So far this season, all he does is launch catch-and-shoot jumpers.

With Ginobili out, Jefferson will need to take a leading role in the offense. He can't simply be a one-trick pony. If you remember correctly, Jefferson was originally acquired to be Ginobili-insurance after the Argentine missed the 2009 playoffs due to injury. Now we'll see if RJ has the ability to take on a bigger role in the offense. The first step for him will be for him to take more steps toward the basket.

James Anderson
At times, James Anderson has played like a natural scorer. He can create shots and has a smooth release. Unfortunately, Anderson hasn't been able to the hit the broad side a barn thus far. He's only 3-for-16 on three-pointers and 4-for-21 on all shots outside of 15 feet.

Pop has already said that Anderson will slide into the starting shooting guard role. The first thing Anderson will need to do is shoot it straight. He's simply not an NBA level player unless he's hitting at least 37-38% of his three-pointers. If he can hit the open three again, anything else he provides offensively will be gravy.

By the time Ginobili is back, the Spurs will have a lot better idea whether or not Anderson is a legit player. The early returns so far this season don't look promising but there's time … and now an opportunity.

Gary Neal
Gary Neal has yet to play following an appendectomy, but he began a rehab stint with the Austin Toros yesterday and the Spurs expect him back this week. That, of course, is good news. Neal proved as a rookie to be a capable scorer and an excellent shooter. The sooner he can return to form, the sooner the Spurs can start leaning on him for consistent production. If Anderson struggles, Neal could quickly find himself as the starter.

Kawhi Leonard
Like Anderson, Kawhi Leonard hasn't been able to hit a jumper -- he's just 3-for-13 on shots from at least 15 feet away. Unlike Anderson, Leonard can do enough to help even if he's not a knock-down shooter. His rebounding has been phenomenal and his defense has been really good at times. The best way for Leonard to pick up the slack would be to play with a lot more energy. Ginobili's relentlessness will be be missed -- Leonard is one of the few players who can bring that to the table. And, yes, a few more jumpers finding net would be welcomed, too.

Danny Green
Quietly, Danny Green has been really good in his limited time this year. His perimeter defense has been excellent, his rebounding has been great and he's never hesitant on the offensive end. If any of the three players listed above can't pull their weight, Green should be given a chance. He's not a star in the making or anything like that but he may be an NBA quality rotation player as an 8th or 9th man.

TJ Ford
Ginobili always does a lot of the playmaking whenever he's on the court. If Ford can prove that he can still make plays consistently, that could really help soften the blow. However, so far, we haven't seen that out of Ford. He has shown playmaking ability in flashes but has yet to string it together.

DeJuan Blair and Tiago Splitter
Without Ginobili and with a suddenly average Duncan, DeJuan Blair and Tiago Splitter need to provide as much low post scoring as possible. They've both shown the ability to do so but things will be a lot more difficult without Ginobili around to occupy the defense.

So, do you think the Spurs can survive?

I think they can. It's going to be difficult, don't get me wrong, but as long as the remaining Big Two play reasonably well and a few of the young players come along for the ride, the Spurs should be able to win something close to half their games. When Ginobili returns, the Spurs should then have enough time to fight their way into the playoff picture.

That said, I'd say this injury lowers the championship hopes from 3% to about 1%. I just don't think the Spurs will be able to reach the playoffs with enough gas left in the tank for a championship run.

[Cane]

There's a silver lining if it means that Manu's absence helps develop guys like Anderson, Leonard, Neal, even give a vet like RJ more freedom, etc. Kind of like when Parker was injured not too long ago, that let George Hill get a lot of time and help reach the playoffs as the 7th seed. But you definitely don't want to wear out the rest of the Big 3 to do so.

To me, things aren't looking good at all. Several Spurs veterans look like they're already not 100% like Tony Parker, Tim Duncan, and Matt Bonner. Duncan took some nasty collisions and body contact throughout this short season and even sacrificed his body to take a charge or two, which has to take a toll in addition to his aging knees. Parker doesn't look anywhere near as quick or dangerous to the paint as he used to be, whether thats by design or if its because of father time, we'll find out soon enough. Matt Bonner looks even more useless battling in the paint then he ever has and IIRC has a knee issue.

Hopefully giving more freedom and opportunities to the rest of the Spurs will help make up for Manu's absence, not looking good though.

For a championship run, the Spurs are going to need health, luck, and a trade to improve the frontcourt.

[ginobilized]

Good write up as usual, timvp.

I truly fear that Blair especially will be much less effective on offense without Ginobili. Splitter also, but, to a lesser extent.

I'll be there Wednesday to take in my first live action this year.

Go, Spurs, Go!!!!

[phxspurfan]

Gary Neal
Gary Neal has yet to play following an appendectomy, but he began a rehab stint with the Austin Toros yesterday and the Spurs expect him back this week. That, of course, is good news. Neal proved as a rookie to be a capable scorer and an excellent shooter. The sooner he can return to form, the sooner the Spurs can start leaning on him for consistent production. If Anderson struggles, Neal could quickly find himself as the starter.


I see Gary Neal as the key. We all know the Spurs don't have the personnel to keep teams scoring in the 80s anymore. So that leaves the Suns ball strategy. The Spurs as currently constructed don't have the firepower to beat most teams in shootouts without Manu. Somebody will have to step up, overachieve, energize the team and give everyone a morale boost for 4-6 weeks. I would say the guy to do it if there are no F.O. moves made is Gary Neal.

If he can get on track in Austin and come to the rescue in a week or so, that would give the Spurs enough time to integrate him into a PG/SG role similar to his role last season and serve as main gunner for TP's drive-and-kick. And with Gary Neal going off, the rest of teh Spurs would likely see hope as they have not yet seen him play this season. It would be like subtracting Manu's play-making but adding Neal's.

And crazy thing is, given last season's heroics, I think Neal can do it.

[The ADMIRAL 50]

Great post as usual TIMVP :tu

I'm working on an article now that covers a lot of the same stuff, but hopefully it'll have a few new points in it as well for the people to consider.

One thing that did look promising was how well Duncan played to start the game last night, unfortunately it was pretty much exclusively through knocking down jumpers. I really don't think we can count on him for much this year, even with Manu out I don't see much of an increase in his role. If there is, though, he'll just be completely spent by the playoffs, like the past couple years versus Memphis and Phoenix.

[ALVAREZ6]

I think the Spurs can still come in as a 7 or 8 seed, but it's going to depend a lot on how well all players not named Parker or Duncan play. Everyone's going to need to pick up some of the slack, hopefully Neal and Anderson can get into some scoring rhythm. I could see Parker having some huge games in Manu's absence as he will have the trigger to shoot as much as he wants, and we will need him to, because we really don't have many players that can create their own offense. With a lot of touches, he should have some games where he lights it up if he's hot.

It's hard to predict the winning percentage though...Manu hasn't been out for this long of a stretch in a while. This is a different Duncan, and their are many new/young players that will need to step it up.

[cantthinkofanything]

Good write up as usual, timvp.

I truly fear that Blair especially will be much less effective on offense without Ginobili. Splitter also, but, to a lesser extent.

I'll be there Wednesday to take in my first live action this year.

Go, Spurs, Go!!!!

I agree with this 100%. But I think all the younger players will suffer. It's a cliche I guess but Manu is one of those players that makes everyone on the court better. With TP running most of the plays, it's going to limit the involvement of everyone else in the offense. I do think that Blair suffers the most though.

[polandprzem]

Say what you want but Parker and RJ are the ones which are capable of stepping up.

We do not have a guy like GHill and Neal is out.

Parker can lead the team and RJ with more space and good shape /he is in now/ is the one we are looking for.


James is too unenergetic
Kawhi is too rookie and makes too many mistakes
Blair is now robbed because Gino was creating him most
Splitt gonna play his game
Tim is unable to step up, he actually needs to step back, hide on D and be playmaking big
TJ looks a noobie and not an NBA playmaker who can adapt quick

[cantthinkofanything]

Say what you want but Parker and RJ are the ones which are capable of stepping up.

We do not have a guy like GHill and Neal is out.

Parker can lead the team and RJ with more space and good shape /he is in now/ is the one we are looking for.


James is too unenergetic
Kawhi is too rookie and makes too many mistakes
Blair is now robbed because Gino was creating him most
Splitt gonna play his game
Tim is unable to step up, he actually needs to step back, hide on D and be playmaking big
TJ looks a noobie and not an NBA playmaker who can adapt quick

Holy fuck what an abortion of a post.

[polandprzem]

Holy fuck what an abortion of a post.

In what meaning?

[wildbill2u]

Everything good that could happen will have to happen to make the 8th playoff slot.

It isn't likely but it is possible. We'll see who can lift their games in the next couple of weeks.

[polandprzem]

It's funny but I really think Spurs can hold on to 4th 5th spot without Ginobili

[Bruno]

While it's possible that Parker has lost some athleticism

I don't think Parker relatively slow start is because of a loss of athleticism. As strangely as it sounds, I think he is a little out of shape.

Parker played this summer and fall with French NT and with L'ASVEL. He looked very good with both teams. My guess is that Pop feared that Parker wouldn't last the whole season so he decided to basically shut him down during the preseason. Pop already did that in the past and Parker playing time during preseason games (DNP-CD and 17min) confirms that. Parker just needs to get back in the shape he was when he was in Europe and it should happen very quickly.

[polandprzem]

I don't think Parker relatively slow start is because of a loss of athleticism. As strangely as it sounds, I think he is a little out of shape.

Parker played this summer and fall with French NT and with L'ASVEL. He looked very good with both teams. My guess is that Pop feared that Parker wouldn't last the whole season so he decided to basically shut him down during the preseason. Pop already did that in the past and Parker playing time during preseason games (DNP-CD and 17min) confirms that. Parker just needs to get back in the shape he was when he was in Europe and it should happen very quickly.

And 1

[Libri]

Say what you want but Parker and RJ are the ones which are capable of stepping up.

We do not have a guy like GHill and Neal is out.

Parker can lead the team and RJ with more space and good shape /he is in now/ is the one we are looking for.

I doubt RJ will become a protagonist. He can't make his own shot or drive past anybody. Nevertheless, he's forced to try, no choice.

[polandprzem]

I doubt RJ will become a protagonist. He can't make his own shot or drive past anybody. Nevertheless, he's forced to try, no choice.

If any doubts there is nobody else and RJ seems to look good this season. Sqeeze what we can out of him.


With TP taking more responsibilities they can work more 2 man game.

Anderson was a joke all games this year.


It;s obvious everybody needs to step up but from all the spurs squad I see those both guys who can do it at the moment.

[Arc]

too many doom and gloomers on here. we have one of the deepest teams in the league. we'll be fine.

[mexicanjunior]

Everything good that could happen will have to happen to make the 8th playoff slot.


That would be the worst case scenario. Better to have a chance to improve the team through the lottery than have a first round exit, followed by the same team back next year.

[Brazil]

I don't think Parker relatively slow start is because of a loss of athleticism. As strangely as it sounds, I think he is a little out of shape.

Parker played this summer and fall with French NT and with L'ASVEL. He looked very good with both teams. My guess is that Pop feared that Parker wouldn't last the whole season so he decided to basically shut him down during the preseason. Pop already did that in the past and Parker playing time during preseason games (DNP-CD and 17min) confirms that. Parker just needs to get back in the shape he was when he was in Europe and it should happen very quickly.

that's a really interesting take. TP was clearly playing some very good and solid bb during the lockout and he was supposedly prepared for the season thanks to all the games he played in Europe.

[TDomination]

Oddly enough, I feel kind of excited about the opportunity to see what these players have to show.

They know their chances were already slim and now with Manu gone, EVERY players role has significantly increased.

We definitely are not expected to win many games at this point, so I hope they take a backs against the wall, balls to the wall, us against the world approach.

And I expect Parker to try and take it to another level, and I truly believe he will.

[urunobili]

Awesome breakdown.

I guess Neal's role is cristal clear no. And timvp, we would only contend if we suddently learn that JA and Leonard are for real and can really contribute at this level. 12 points each would be a dream.

Having said that, I think that if Neal goes back to his previous form he could very well end up being a 15 ppg scorer for us though im not sure without Manu whose going to create the open shots he enjoyed last season for him. He's on a contract year so he could very well come back to near star level and earn a 3.5 mill a year contract like RMJ's.

[wildbill2u]

That would be the worst case scenario. Better to have a chance to improve the team through the lottery than have a first round exit, followed by the same team back next year.

I don't entirely disagree with your preference, but the subject was how to survive this season without Manu and presumably to make the playoffs.

Personally, I think the cards are stacked against us given the shortened season and the status of the Big 3 right now. Remember this may be the final year of the Big 3 in any event since Timmy may realize the wheels have come off, and so the FO may trade TP and then Manu may decide to become a full-time father without TD & TP.

Whether an all hands on deck rally to make the playoffs is a good idea for the future of the franchise is above our pay grade.

[tmtcsc]

Way too optimistic. The situation is depressing and we aren't making the playoffs.

Here's to next year !

[ALVAREZ6]

That would be the worst case scenario. Better to have a chance to improve the team through the lottery than have a first round exit, followed by the same team back next year.

I disagree. I think the Thunder are an overrated regular season team (much like the Spurs last season), and I think the Spurs, if healthy, can give them a run for their money in the playoffs. I still see them as a young and dumb team, largely because of Russell Westbrook. I was watching them a few nights ago and they can play some sloppy ass ball. We all know how terrible Westbrook's decision making is, and if the games are close, down the stretch I give the edge to the more veteran team.

[Fergie The Florists]

RIP Spurs.... long overdue tbh

[DPG21920]

I don't think Parker relatively slow start is because of a loss of athleticism. As strangely as it sounds, I think he is a little out of shape.

Parker played this summer and fall with French NT and with L'ASVEL. He looked very good with both teams. My guess is that Pop feared that Parker wouldn't last the whole season so he decided to basically shut him down during the preseason. Pop already did that in the past and Parker playing time during preseason games (DNP-CD and 17min) confirms that. Parker just needs to get back in the shape he was when he was in Europe and it should happen very quickly.

How can someone get that out of shape by being shut down in an abbreviated pre-season especially after being in game shape from playing? Conversely how can someone with a brief training camp be in any better shape than a guy who played all Summer?

[cantthinkofanything]

How can someone get that out of shape by being shut down in an abbreviated pre-season especially after being in game shape from playing? Conversely how can someone with a brief training camp be in any better shape than a guy who played all Summer?

It's bullshit. Parker has lost a step. Someday's he still has it and shows flashes of his old speed and quickness. But on the NBA level of athleticism, Parker at 95% looks stuck in molasses.

[jjktkk]

I don't entirely disagree with your preference, but the subject was how to survive this season without Manu and presumably to make the playoffs.

Personally, I think the cards are stacked against us given the shortened season and the status of the Big 3 right now. Remember this may be the final year of the Big 3 in any event since Timmy may realize the wheels have come off, and so the FO may trade TP and then Manu may decide to become a full-time father without TD & TP.

Whether an all hands on deck rally to make the playoffs is a good idea for the future of the franchise is above our pay grade.

The cards were stacked against us before Manu went down imo. I still think the Spurs will survive without Manu and get into the playoffs, but unless the front line improves thru a bigman signing/trade, and/or Splitter and Blair step up, the Spurs odds are not good for contending.

[Bruno]

How can someone get that out of shape by being shut down in an abbreviated pre-season especially after being in game shape from playing? Conversely how can someone with a brief training camp be in any better shape than a guy who played all Summer?

"That out of shape"? I've said "a little out of shape".

There have been 1 month between Parker's last game in Europe and the start of the season. That's enough to lost some game shape.

[temujin]

How can someone get that out of shape by being shut down in an abbreviated pre-season especially after being in game shape from playing? Conversely how can someone with a brief training camp be in any better shape than a guy who played all Summer?

This.

Parker is turning 30 in 4 months.
He is slower than when he was 25.
Worse, he has been a defensive liability for the last couple of seasons.

[polandprzem]

"That out of shape"? I've said "a little out of shape".

There have been 1 month between Parker's last game in Europe and the start of the season. That's enough to lost some game shape.

It's enough to lose all the shape

[jjktkk]

"That out of shape"? I've said "a little out of shape".

There have been 1 month between Parker's last game in Europe and the start of the season. That's enough to lost some game shape.

Good points. Its possible that Parker is alittle gassed right now.

[DPG21920]

That's my point though. A little out of shape doesn't seem to be the likely culprit of an all-star finisher going from 50+% fg to 40%. That is a large drop off from a guy who by all accounts should be in better shape than most.

[DPG21920]

I'm not dogging TP I'm stating what I see. It makes no sense to me that being a little out of shape would cause such a large drop off or that other guys would be in better shape than him just because of a really short training camp.

[DMC]

Blair will be an All Star this year.

[jjktkk]

Alot of miles on Tony's legs, but I would be suprised if he doesn't step up and revert to his usual form soon.

[LongtimeSpursFan]

too many doom and gloomers on here. we have one of the deepest teams in the league. we'll be fine.

I hope your post wasnt written in sarcasm. If not, I agree completely. This team is deep all the way to the 12th man, even moreso at the 2/3 position. Spurs will be fine. With a season like this the most important thing is to make the playoffs.

[ChumpDumper]

Is Al Thornton still out there?

[DPG21920]

Let's hope TP is just a little out of shape. We've seen what a fully healthy TP led team can do and it was pretty damn impressive.

[DMC]

Ain't no surviving this injury. It's panic time for you losers.
See you at the Lottery, jack.

[temujin]

AT any rate, that was a very good, yet optimistic read.

On Duncan, I agree, that the very most one could expect of him. In normal conditions, at 36, even a great player is supposed to come off the bench and provide some relief for the starting big, playing vs the opponents' subs. Too bad he is the starting big.

On Anderson/Leonard/Green: I think Green shows energy and good knowledge of basketball, in general. He has quick feet is more athletic than Leonard. Of the three, he is the only one that vaguely reminds me of Bowen. Anderson just doesn't seem to have a high basketball IQ.

On Blair: I am afraid his production will go down, as half of his points were coming from Manus' feeds. He'll still be soldi, though

On Jefferson and TJ Ford: if you have to rely on these guys for anything more than a modest role, you are the Bucks/Clippers/Raptors. And you are naturally bound to the lottery.

The two bright spots might be Splitter and Neal, provided that the latter gets back in shape quickly. These two have balls.

Overall, I'd be suprised if Spurs win more than 10 games from now to the return of Ginobili.

[Amuseddaysleeper]

Nice post timvp :tu


Honestly, it's gonna come down to Neal/Anderson/TP. I don't know if we'll be able to replicate Manu's playmaking ability, but in terms of offensive efficiency, we're gonna hope JA can hit some shots, Neal isn't too rusty, and Parker become a little more selfish.

I think the Spurs surprise people and play .550 ball. I'm actually more anxious about getting a 4th/5th big as I have a good feeling Manu will be in 4 weeks since it was just his pinky.


All will be fine Spurs fans, trust me

:toast

[MannyIsGod]

Can they survive? Sure. Will they? ehhh.

I give them a 40% chance at making the playoffs right now, and I think thats generous.

[Bruno]

That's my point though. A little out of shape doesn't seem to be the likely culprit of an all-star finisher going from 50+% fg to 40%. That is a large drop off from a guy who by all accounts should be in better shape than most.

Well, it's too a 5 games sample. If Parker is still bad in 10 games, it would be time to wonder if he has lost a step.

I'm not worried about Parker. I've seen him having his best summer ever with french national team. Batum even thanked Memphis to have beaten Spurs early in the playoffs which allowed Parker to be well rested this summer.

[cantthinkofanything]

Well, it's too a 5 games sample. If Parker is still bad in 10 games, it would be time to wonder if he has lost a step.

I'm not worried about Parker. I've seen him having his best summer ever with french national team. Batum even thanked Memphis to have beaten Spurs early in the playoffs which allowed Parker to be well rested this summer.

How can anyone say that he hasn't lost a step. Nothing to blame him about. But age takes a toll on everyone.

[jjktkk]

How can anyone say that he hasn't lost a step. Nothing to blame him about. But age takes a toll on everyone.

Need more of a sample to see if tp has, indeed, lost a step. Way too early to come away with your conclusion imo.

[ALVAREZ6]

How can anyone say that he hasn't lost a step. Nothing to blame him about. But age takes a toll on everyone.

[024]

why can't the spurs tank? they can easily trade parker and then deal manu when he comes back or in the offseason. parker is still in his prime so there will be buyers lining up and ginobili will be a risk but will be an expiring next year. there will be a team (bulls i'm thinking) that will be willing to risk it.

duncan's contract will be up this year. if the spurs can find some way to clear ginobili and parker, then the spurs will have loads of cap room plus a high lottery draft pick next year. i'm all for the spurs trying to get a championship if they are healthy but this is a sign to start rebuilding. spurs have put this off for too long.

[ChumpDumper]

why can't the spurs tank? they can easily trade parker and then deal manu when he comes back or in the offseason. parker is still in his prime so there will be buyers lining up and ginobili will be a risk but will be an expiring next year. there will be a team (bulls i'm thinking) that will be willing to risk it.

duncan's contract will be up this year. if the spurs can find some way to clear ginobili and parker, then the spurs will have loads of cap room plus a high lottery draft pick next year. i'm all for the spurs trying to get a championship if they are healthy but this is a sign to start rebuilding. spurs have put this off for too long.Spurs need to hold onto Manu until he retires.

[baseline bum]

Can they survive? Sure. Will they? ehhh.

I give them a 40% chance at making the playoffs right now, and I think thats generous.

I really don't see Houston or Minnesota taking that 8th seed; I'd put the Spurs playoff chances at about 70% (unfortunately; I like the 40% number better). Tim and Tony are going to play heavy minutes and thus be spent gaining the pyrrhic victory of a playoff berth.

[z0sa]

I think this might be the end.

[therealtruth]

TP's always scared me because so much of his game depends on his speed. I don't think he will age well as a guard. He's already having trouble finishing his floaters in the lane.

[TD 21]

I think people are getting a little carried away with the notion of them not making the playoffs. It's certainly a possibility now, but I don't see it as a probability. Short of a rash of injuries or a complete and total loss in belief, the only way they should miss is if Pop get's too carried away managing minutes. He needs to come to terms with the reality that it may take playing Parker 35-36 mpg during this stretch. Or Jefferson closer to mid 30's or Duncan in the low 30's.

As far as them not peaking, this might actually increase their chances. Ginobili should be just hitting his stride come playoff time and the only one who may have to do too much in the process is Parker. Duncan may play slightly more and should see a few more touches, but I really don't think they're going to greatly increase his role.

Because of the parity in the West, seeding is more irrelevant than ever. The only potential power in the West is the Thunder. But it may actually be better for the Spurs to get them in the 1st round, when they're as fresh as they're going to be.

[dunkman]

Matt "the red rocket" Bonner isn't mentioned in the article?

[mingus]

The good thing about the injury is it's not his ankle. If he can get his stroke back quick when he comes back, he'll still have his legs. By the time playoffs roll around, he'll have the freshest legs possible.

I still think the Spurs can make it into the playoffs, and I think their chances are good. I think Tony is going to go off like '08. And people are forgetting how good Neal was for us. He'll be given the green light, I think JA and Leonard will play better and with more energy, and Blair is going to probably get more iso plays called for him, and I think he'll produce as he's shown he can so far this year. I think we'll stay afloat for the playoffs as probably a 6-8 seed. There's going to be other injuries to other players on good teams this year with the schedule be so crazy and lack of training camp. It'll balance out IMO.

[pookenstein]

Great breakdown, as usual TIMVP.

Reading the piece I was wondering if there was something you were missing. In your analysis you left out Bonner.
Lost any hope in him or did he just slip?

[Robz4000]

Spurs are gonna be fine. Manu will be back in a month, maybe even sooner. Other players will step up to carry the load. The team is still looking at a 4-5 spot imo. After all, people need to remember other teams in the picture will suffer key injuries too.

[BackHome]

I disagree. I think the Thunder are an overrated regular season team (much like the Spurs last season), and I think the Spurs, if healthy, can give them a run for their money in the playoffs. I still see them as a young and dumb team, largely because of Russell Westbrook. I was watching them a few nights ago and they can play some sloppy ass ball. We all know how terrible Westbrook's decision making is, and if the games are close, down the stretch I give the edge to the more veteran team.

Love my Spurs but to say the Thunder are overrated is just insane. They have a great core of young athletic players and are going to run down teams in a seven game series.

[mingus]

I think OKC is overrated. Their problem has never been youth as much is at has been that they don't have a post scorer. They don't stand a chance against LA or Miami. They're not contenders.

[mingus]

OKC needs to trade Westbrook unless they plan on getting that post player some other way. They got too many perimiter guys.

[therealtruth]

I think OKC is overrated. Their problem has never been youth as much is at has been that they don't have a post scorer. They don't stand a chance against LA or Miami. They're not contenders.

As long as they have Durant they don't really need one. They just need bigs that can defend.

[timvp]

No update on the severity of Ginobili's injury today?

That's a bad sign :depressed

Probably means Ginobili is getting a second opinion regarding whether or not he needs surgery.

[ALVAREZ6]

Love my Spurs but to say the Thunder are overrated is just insane. They have a great core of young athletic players and are going to run down teams in a seven game series.

They are overrated. I'm not scared of them, and a healthy Spurs can beat the Thunder in the first round more so than later in the playoffs. Durant will get his, Westbrook is a scrub, and as mentioned they don't have many threats down low. The currently weak west will make them look great with a nice record, but they aren't that great of a team. They're among the best teams in the NBA, but I just don't think there are many great teams anymore. The Heat are clearly the best, then you have the Bulls, Thunder, Mavs, Spurs (with a healthy Manu of course), and Lakers a notch below the Heat and the rest of the NBA is pretty irrelevant. I think the Spurs can give any team not named the Miami Heat a 6-7 game series in the postseason, and when the games are close and the pressure is on in the 4th...a guy like Ginobili will give you an advantage.

That said, just give it to Miami already. They're gonna run through Chicago in the ECF again and destroy anything the west puts out there.

[Robz4000]

No update on the severity of Ginobili's injury today?

That's a bad sign :depressed

Probably means Ginobili is getting a second opinion regarding whether or not he needs surgery.

Not necessarily. Last year when Duncan and Parker got injured, they didn't give an update until late in the day. Then again, those injuries weren't as alarming.

[ElNono]

I think OKC is overrated. Their problem has never been youth as much is at has been that they don't have a post scorer. They don't stand a chance against LA or Miami. They're not contenders.

Dallas didn't have a legit post scorer last season and won it all, beating LA and Miami on the way...

What you need these days is a defensive big, and OKC has that...

[RuffnReadyOzStyle]

With Manu out we're in real trouble as he facilitates so many other players to score, not to mention his own scoring and lively defence.

At this point, it's a pity we can't tank and try for one of the athletic bigs in this deep draft class... but of course you can't tank on Timmy in his last season. To have any chance of making the playoffs TP has to find form and quickly.

On the flipside, this is a huge opportunity for the youngsters to step up and show something.

PS If we could tank, as much as I hate to say it I'd ship out both Manu (he'll have great value around the deadline to a contender) and Tony (he's got a lot of games on him for a guard who relies on his speed - he'll decline soon), grab as many quality young players/high draft picks as possible, and get started on a proper rebuild... I'm dreaming about Andre Drummond already...

[baseline bum]

With Manu out we're in real trouble as he facilitates so many other players to score, not to mention his own scoring and lively defence.

At this point, it's a pity we can't tank and try for one of the athletic bigs in this deep draft class... but of course you can't tank on Timmy in his last season. To have any chance of making the playoffs TP has to find form and quickly.

On the flipside, this is a huge opportunity for the youngsters to step up and show something.

PS If we could tank, as much as I hate to say it I'd ship out both Manu (he'll have great value around the deadline to a contender) and Tony (he's got a lot of games on him for a guard who relies on his speed - he'll decline soon), grab as many quality young players/high draft picks as possible, and get started on a proper rebuild... I'm dreaming about Andre Drummond already...

You like Drummond over Davis? I'm really disappointed in Andre's passing this year; it was supposed to be one of the strongest parts of his game and I'm just not seeing it at UConn. :(

[xmas1997]

With Manu out we're in real trouble as he facilitates so many other players to score, not to mention his own scoring and lively defence.

At this point, it's a pity we can't tank and try for one of the athletic bigs in this deep draft class... but of course you can't tank on Timmy in his last season. To have any chance of making the playoffs TP has to find form and quickly.

On the flipside, this is a huge opportunity for the youngsters to step up and show something.

PS If we could tank, as much as I hate to say it I'd ship out both Manu (he'll have great value around the deadline to a contender) and Tony (he's got a lot of games on him for a guard who relies on his speed - he'll decline soon), grab as many quality young players/high draft picks as possible, and get started on a proper rebuild... I'm dreaming about Andre Drummond already...

That's what Boston thought, but we ended up with Tim anyway.
But we can't lose Manu, he is the heart and soul of the team.

[The Truth #6]

They have almost zero leadership without Manu. Tim led by example...and his example isn't so great anymore (though you have to marvel at his willingness to keep at it and not make excuses even as his body fails him). I think Tony will step it up, but I'm not sure if his play will make anyone else better.

I'm trying to imagine how to restructure/adapt the offense with the absence of Manu. My best thought is to play ugly grind it out basketball and play inside out through Blair and Tiago in the post. It's not a great option but there are no great options at this point. Blair and Tiago are both great passers. I would force feed them down low and kick out to Neal and RJ for open 3s when possible. Until Tony shows the ability the get deep in the lane I'm not sure how else to facilitate ball movement and quality shots (JA and KL don't look to provide much of that).

[mingus]

Dallas didn't have a legit post scorer last season and won it all, beating LA and Miami on the way...

What you need these days is a defensive big, and OKC has that...

they had/have Dirk, who is a high post player and plays in the low post sometimes as well. even Marion has a post up game that he is successful with.

not denying you need a defensive big (that's the reason the Mavs will not repeat), but you need an offensive post player too.

Durant shot around 45% last year in the playoffs, Westbrook 39%. like i said they relied too much on the perimiter players, much like the Spurs, and don't have an inside threat. and they'll be pretenders until they have someone that can get 14-16 ppg at least on a 50% clip int he post. Memphis would've beaten them last year had they had Gay. Gasol would've been great for them. I would've waited on him and hoped to sign him instead of Perkins. he would've provided enough defense and a legit offensive threat from the post.

[CGD]

TP's always scared me because so much of his game depends on his speed. I don't think he will age well as a guard. He's already having trouble finishing his floaters in the lane.

I agree, though, I don't think he's declined that much yet. I've always seen a lot of similarities between TP and KJ from the old Suns. I just hope TP doesn't fall victim to chronic injuries late in his career like KJ.

[RuffnReadyOzStyle]

You like Drummond over Davis? I'm really disappointed in Andre's passing this year; it was supposed to be one of the strongest parts of his game and I'm just not seeing it at UConn. :(

I'll defer to your greater wisdom on matters College. Either would work. :)


That's what Boston thought, but we ended up with Tim anyway.
But we can't lose Manu, he is the heart and soul of the team.

Don't get me wrong, I love Manu, in fact he might now be my favourite balla ever (ahead of Tim and David, which says a ton), but he is 34 with one year left on his contract after this and if we are going to rebuild there's no point in keeping him around. You can't go for half-measures with rebuilding - gotta acquire the right kids, take your lumps for a few years, then become relevant again.

I also think Manu'd want a trade to a contender as he is a winner first and foremost. If he wanted to stay and help the rebuild that would be cool, but I doubt that's in his sights.

PS On second thoughts, I can't separate David/Tim/Manu - I love them all equally until the day I die! :D

[mingus]

As long as they have Durant they don't really need one. They just need bigs that can defend.

they had bigs that can defend last year. they got taken to seven by a team was missing it's second best player, arguably best player in Gay, and they had HCA to go along with it. they got handled by the Mavs in 5 games. i don't think they would've beaten LA or the Spurs if they had to play them. they played the Spurs horribly last year partially because the Spurs biggest weakness (low post defense) they couldn't exploit.

[angelbelow]

I think people are getting a little carried away with the notion of them not making the playoffs. It's certainly a possibility now, but I don't see it as a probability. Short of a rash of injuries or a complete and total loss in belief, the only way they should miss is if Pop get's too carried away managing minutes. He needs to come to terms with the reality that it may take playing Parker 35-36 mpg during this stretch. Or Jefferson closer to mid 30's or Duncan in the low 30's.

As far as them not peaking, this might actually increase their chances. Ginobili should be just hitting his stride come playoff time and the only one who may have to do too much in the process is Parker. Duncan may play slightly more and should see a few more touches, but I really don't think they're going to greatly increase his role.

Because of the parity in the West, seeding is more irrelevant than ever. The only potential power in the West is the Thunder. But it may actually be better for the Spurs to get them in the 1st round, when they're as fresh as they're going to be.

Good points, but I don't see Pop playing Duncan and Parker the minutes you're suggesting. Especially not Duncan.

I know its not the popular choice, but I'm still in favor of tanking. Unless Ike provides immediate relief offensively and defensively.. I'm not sure our fragile front line can last the season.

Also, tanking wouldn't necessarily mean rebuilding our team from the ground up (unless TD decides to retire then we have no choice.) If we can get a high pick and a solid prospect, we still might be in a great position to make a run next year.

All in all, I want to see how we look for the next 10 games before making any big time judgements like "tank!"

[analyzed]

[QUOTE=R
PS If we could tank, as much as I hate to say it I'd ship out both Manu (he'll have great value around the deadline to a contender) and Tony (he's got a lot of games on him for a guard who relies on his speed - he'll decline soon), grab as many quality young players/high draft picks as possible, and get started on a proper rebuild... I'm dreaming about Andre Drummond already...[/QUOTE]

I see the logic why a contender would trade for Manu, but the question is what can they give up in return, (no way they trade a main cog as that would take them out from being contenders, and being contenders they won't have any high draft picks in the near future worthy of trade value). So the bigger concern is what can we get in return for Manu or Tony that be worth a trade.

BTW I was thinking the NBA should reward teams that make the playoffs in favor of teams that just missed them, and award the 11th to 14th picks (or their equivalent lottery balls) to the 1st round playoff eliminated teams, that way teams that are in the middle of the road have incentive to win to make the playoffs , while teams that just give up get penalized (they get the 15th to 19th picks). I know it won't happen , but just saying

[Libri]

They have almost zero leadership without Manu.

I think that something that is vastly underestimated is that Manu was the emotional leader of the team. Apart from the statistics, his mere presence on the court infused confidence to the rest of the players. Furthermore, he showed a whole range of emotions that stem from disappointment when losing to excitement when making a big play. It's that intangible quality that will be greatly missed.

[ducks]

spurs scored 94 last game
manu played very little
spurs scoring will not be the problem
spurs closing might be
why because pop only goes to manu

[RuffnReadyOzStyle]

spurs scored 94 last game
manu played very little
spurs scoring will not be the problem
spurs closing might be
why because pop only goes to manu

:rolleyes

Didn't watch the game, did you? TP shot 2-11 and was atrocious. Time your man stepped up and brought his A-game... if he doesn't, we're screwed.

[ducks]

spurs were screwed when manu got paid what he did and has always been hurts....
tp jumpshots are on he just needs to finish better
pop fault not playing him in preason and camp

[NASpurs]

spurs scored 94 last game
manu played very little
spurs scoring will not be the problem
spurs closing might be
why because pop only goes to manu

Crappiest poem I've ever seen in my life.

[TJastal]

Crappiest poem I've ever seen in my life.

:lol

[TD 21]

Good points, but I don't see Pop playing Duncan and Parker the minutes you're suggesting. Especially not Duncan.

I know its not the popular choice, but I'm still in favor of tanking. Unless Ike provides immediate relief offensively and defensively.. I'm not sure our fragile front line can last the season.

Also, tanking wouldn't necessarily mean rebuilding our team from the ground up (unless TD decides to retire then we have no choice.) If we can get a high pick and a solid prospect, we still might be in a great position to make a run next year.

All in all, I want to see how we look for the next 10 games before making any big time judgements like "tank!"

He might not have a choice, particularly in Parker's case. It's either that or increase the risk of narrowly missing the playoffs, missing out on the playoff revenue that comes with even two home games and not getting a great draft pick. That's precisely why tanking makes no sense, because this team is too good to get a high enough pick to justify it.

In what's maybe Duncan's last season, are they supposed to tell him to stop trying? The guy got them a new building built, ensuring the franchise would stay put for, at minimum, a long, long time, carried them in virtually all aspects of the game for a long time and did so with limited help, yet never once complained. He also lead them to four championships along the way. More recently, he's given up $11 million over 2 years and taken on a reduced role, again, while never once complaining, even though they've failed to provide him with adequate help as he's aged. Yeah, tell that guy to just give up. And while they're at it, maybe they can tell Parker too.

[jgome21]

I think the Spurs will struggle in some games, but should be fine in the long run. It allows James Anderson to play a bigger role and Gary Neal to get back into his groove. I've accepted the fact that ginobili gets hurt at some point of every season, so I rather have him get it over with now and have him hopefully healthy in the playoffs. All I ask for is a healthy Manu and Tim in playoffs......

[cantthinkofanything]

I think that something that is vastly underestimated is that Manu was the emotional leader of the team. Apart from the statistics, his mere presence on the court infused confidence to the rest of the players. Furthermore, he showed a whole range of emotions that stem from disappointment when losing to excitement when making a big play. It's that intangible quality that will be greatly missed.

I agree with you but you couldn't have said it any gayer.

[angelbelow]

He might not have a choice, particularly in Parker's case. It's either that or increase the risk of narrowly missing the playoffs, missing out on the playoff revenue that comes with even two home games and not getting a great draft pick. That's precisely why tanking makes no sense, because this team is too good to get a high enough pick to justify it.

In what's maybe Duncan's last season, are they supposed to tell him to stop trying? The guy got them a new building built, ensuring the franchise would stay put for, at minimum, a long, long time, carried them in virtually all aspects of the game for a long time and did so with limited help, yet never once complained. He also lead them to four championships along the way. More recently, he's given up $11 million over 2 years and taken on a reduced role, again, while never once complaining, even though they've failed to provide him with adequate help as he's aged. Yeah, tell that guy to just give up. And while they're at it, maybe they can tell Parker too.

Regarding Duncan.. he definitely earned the right to finish out the season the way he wants. If he wants to push his limits and attempt lead the spurs to another successful seasons, then I'll be there to cheer him on. If we end up clicking on all cylinders without Manu and actually improve when he returns for our playoff run, then this would easily be one of the more memorable seasons in Spurs history.

As far as tanking goes.. I like the way you put it.. it'll be just as hard to get a top 5 pick as it would be to finish with a top 4 seed in the West. We're kind of stuck in the middle, as of now we should make the playoffs as a low seed even without Manu. So we're kind of stuck in this mediocre realm where we aren't good enough to compete - yet were not close to being bad enough to tank. The next few weeks will be more revealing but I'm not sure which situation I'm rooting for yet.

[TD 21]

But with the West in the state it's in, does it really matter what seed the Spurs get? They might get a 6-8 seed, but really be a top four caliber team come playoff time, like in '10 or like the Grizzlies last season.

I think it's a no brainer to root for them to do well, because, as I alluded to, unless they get an obscene amount of injuries to key personnel, there's no way they're going to be bad enough to get a top 10 pick. Missing the playoffs and getting a 11-14th pick is the worst possible scenario. So you might as well root for them to stay in the playoff picture and hope they're healthy for once going into the playoffs. They're long overdue.

[mailboogie52]

I have read all the posts on this thread. So many of you have said the Spurs are doomed. You talk of Parker or leonard or Jefferson or someone stepping up to fill the hole of Manu's absence. Looking at the team as a whole, I agree that the young players have to show what they can do. Having seen all the games to this point, at least 3 times each(recorded), I think we all overlook the team concept that is Spurs ball.

Manu has about 25 mins a game that will have to taken by someone. Anderson 21.4, Leonard 18.2 and Green 8.8 are going to getting the bulk of the minutes for the next 3 or 4 games. Neal will get maybe 10 for those games then cut into the minutes Green is getting. TP will stay on the court for 3 or 4 extra minutes. That leaves Anderson to start at SG and get 30 mins a game, up about 8. Leonard will gain 5 more as the main backup at SF. Green will get about 18 mins a game till Neal returns.

I dont see our offense dropping but I do worry about the defense. My predition for Manu is Feb 29. At that point we should be 20-14 or 19-15 at the worst. We could even be better.

[cantthinkofanything]

I have read all the posts on this thread. So many of you have said the Spurs are doomed. You talk of Parker or leonard or Jefferson or someone stepping up to fill the hole of Manu's absence. Looking at the team as a whole, I agree that the young players have to show what they can do. Having seen all the games to this point, at least 3 times each(recorded), I think we all overlook the team concept that is Spurs ball.

Manu has about 25 mins a game that will have to taken by someone. Anderson 21.4, Leonard 18.2 and Green 8.8 are going to getting the bulk of the minutes for the next 3 or 4 games. Neal will get maybe 10 for those games then cut into the minutes Green is getting. TP will stay on the court for 3 or 4 extra minutes. That leaves Anderson to start at SG and get 30 mins a game, up about 8. Leonard will gain 5 more as the main backup at SF. Green will get about 18 mins a game till Neal returns.

I dont see our offense dropping but I do worry about the defense. My predition for Manu is Feb 29. At that point we should be 20-14 or 19-15 at the worst. We could even be better.

ohhhh...so all they have to do is reallocate Manu's minutes and it'll work out fine.

[analyzed]

I have read all the posts on this thread. So many of you have said the Spurs are doomed. You talk of Parker or leonard or Jefferson or someone stepping up to fill the hole of Manu's absence. Looking at the team as a whole, I agree that the young players have to show what they can do. Having seen all the games to this point, at least 3 times each(recorded), I think we all overlook the team concept that is Spurs ball.

Manu has about 25 mins a game that will have to taken by someone. Anderson 21.4, Leonard 18.2 and Green 8.8 are going to getting the bulk of the minutes for the next 3 or 4 games. Neal will get maybe 10 for those games then cut into the minutes Green is getting. TP will stay on the court for 3 or 4 extra minutes. That leaves Anderson to start at SG and get 30 mins a game, up about 8. Leonard will gain 5 more as the main backup at SF. Green will get about 18 mins a game till Neal returns.

I dont see our offense dropping but I do worry about the defense. My predition for Manu is Feb 29. At that point we should be 20-14 or 19-15 at the worst. We could even be better.

Huh? you do realize that Manu is one of if not the most efficeint players in the NBA, avg 20 pts in 26 minutes before his injury. So you figure Anderson and company can provide the same offensive efficeincy with the 26 minutes shared among them. I'd like to see that happen.

[Fabbs]

That said, I'd say this injury lowers the championship hopes from 3% to about 1%.
You just inspired some PollyAnna Poppers party attire.
http://playerpianosara.files.wordpress.com/2011/11/karen.jpg

[Xevious]

tp jumpshots are on he just needs to finish better
pop fault not playing him in preason and camp
GTFO are you even watching the games? Parker's jumper is MIA (has been for more than this season), he's bricking all over the place. He had like a 5 minute run where he was actually scoring at will. The rest of the time he's been struggling.

Anyway, the guys calling for a tank need to shut up. Yes, Manu will probably not return to anything close to 100% this season, Tim looks to be about 60 years old, and Tony is just flat out sucking... but the team owes them at least an effort. They might as well waive Duncan now, so he can join a contender or retire with at least a little dignity. But as long as he is in a Spurs uniform, they try to win.

[therealtruth]

spurs were screwed when manu got paid what he did and has always been hurts....
tp jumpshots are on he just needs to finish better
pop fault not playing him in preason and camp

The Spurs got him cheap on the previous deal. I think they overcompensated on the current one. Same thing happened with the Trailblazers and B. Roy. They knew he had knee issues and still gave him a max. It's hard to factor injuries into what a contract should look like. Nobody wants to accept being called injury prone.

[angelbelow]

But with the West in the state it's in, does it really matter what seed the Spurs get? They might get a 6-8 seed, but really be a top four caliber team come playoff time, like in '10 or like the Grizzlies last season.

I think it's a no brainer to root for them to do well, because, as I alluded to, unless they get an obscene amount of injuries to key personnel, there's no way they're going to be bad enough to get a top 10 pick. Missing the playoffs and getting a 11-14th pick is the worst possible scenario. So you might as well root for them to stay in the playoff picture and hope they're healthy for once going into the playoffs. They're long overdue.

Yeah, the west is much weaker this year. Hopefully we gel and get some consistency from the everyone outside of just Duncan and Parker.

[Spurtacus]

I really don't see Manu back and fully healthy until after the All-Star break. 7-8 weeks from now. Had the injury been to his non shooting hand I would say 4 weeks. Not an expert on this injury just my preliminary prediction.

If he's out until the All-Star break then thats 29 games missed.

[rascal]

People are saying Parker is out of shape but Duncan is the one out of shape.
I expect Duncan to play better as he gets into game shape.

It has always been on Duncan and it will be like that again.

[benefactor]

Crappiest poem I've ever seen in my life.
:lol

[Ice009]

People are saying Parker is out of shape but Duncan is the one out of shape.
I expect Duncan to play better as he gets into game shape.

It has always been on Duncan and it will be like that again.

I agree. I think Tim is just rusty and out of game shape. I think he will get a lot better later on.

[timvp]

If he's out six weeks, he'll miss 25 games. If Ginobili can't return for the full eight weeks, the Spurs will be without their star guard for 31 games.

So Ginobili is out at the very least 25 games. Probably closer to 31.

Let's hope TD and TP are in one piece by then.

[analyzed]

With our win vs the Warriors , we need to win 11 out of our next 27 games (2 months) that equates to 40 % of our games . and we would have a mid-season record of .500 . 17 wins , 16 losses. Hopefully with a healthy Manu we can win 20 of our last 33 games. 60 % . That would being our record to 36 and 30. Which I believe would put us in the playoffs.

11 (In bold) of the next 27 games are certainly winable. when you look at the remaining schedule for January and Febuary.
s Mavericks

Sat 07 vs Nuggets

Sun 08 @ Oklahoma City

Tue 10 @ Milwaukee

1200 WOAI
Wed 11 vs Rockets
1200 WOAI
Fri 13 vs Trail Blazers
A 1200 WOAI
Sun 15 vs Suns
AT&T Center, San Antonio, TX
8:00 PM FSSW 1200 WOAI
Tue 17 @ Miami

6:30 PM FSSW 1200 WOAI
Wed 18 @ Orlando
Amway Center, Orlando, FL
1200 WOAI
Fri 20 vs Kings
AT&T Center, San Antonio, TX
7:30 PM FSSW 1200 WOAI
Sat 21 @ Houston
Toyota Center, Houston, TX
7:00 PM FSSW 1200 WOAI
Mon 23 @ New Orleans
New Orleans Arena, New Orleans, LA
1200 WOAI
Wed 25 vs Hawks
AT&T Center, San Antonio, TX
7:30 PM FSSW 1200 WOAI
Fri 27 @ Minnesota
Target Center, Minneapolis, MN
7:00 PM FSSW 1200 WOAI
Sun 29 @ Dallas
American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX
5:30 PM FSSW 1200 WOAI
Mon 30 @ Memphis
FedExForum, Memphis, TN
7:00 PM FSSW 1200 WOAI
February Opponent Time Local TV Nat TV Radio
Wed 01 vs Rockets
AT&T Center, San Antonio, TX
7:30 PM FSSW 1200 WOAI
Thu 02 vs Hornets
AT&T Center, San Antonio, TX
7:30 PM FSSW 1200 WOAI
Sat 04 vs Thunder
AT&T Center, San Antonio, TX
7:30 PM KENS 1200 WOAI
Mon 06 @ Memphis
FedExForum, Memphis, TN
7:00 PM FSSW 1200 WOAI
Wed 08 @ Philadelphia
Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia, PA
6:00 PM FSSW 1200 WOAI
Sat 11 @ New Jersey
Prudential Center, Newark, NJ
7:00 PM KENS 1200 WOAI
Tue 14 @ Detroit
Palace of Auburn Hills, Detroit, MI
6:30 PM FSSW 1200 WOAI
Wed 15 @ Toronto
Air Canada Centre, Toronto, ON
6:00 PM FSSW 1200 WOAI
Sat 18 @ L.A. Clippers
Staples Center, Los Angeles, CA
2:30 PM FSSW 1200 WOAI
Mon 20 @ Utah
EnergySolutions Arena, Salt Lake City, UT
8:00 PM FSSW 1200 WOAI
Tue 21 @ Portland
Rose Garden, Portland, OR
9:00 PM FSSW 1200 WOAI
Thu 23 @ Denver
Pepsi Center, Denver, CO

[Robz4000]

With our win vs the Warriors , we need to win 11 out of our next 27 games (2 months) that equates to 40 % of our games . and we would have a mid-season record of .500 . 17 wins , 16 losses. Hopefully with a healthy Manu we can win 20 of our last 33 games. 60 % . That would being our record to 36 and 30. Which I believe would put us in the playoffs.

11 (In bold) of the next 27 games are certainly winable. when you look at the remaining schedule for January and Febuary.
s Mavericks

Sat 07 vs Nuggets

Sun 08 @ Oklahoma City

Tue 10 @ Milwaukee

1200 WOAI
Wed 11 vs Rockets
1200 WOAI
Fri 13 vs Trail Blazers
A 1200 WOAI
Sun 15 vs Suns
AT&T Center, San Antonio, TX
8:00 PM FSSW 1200 WOAI
Tue 17 @ Miami

6:30 PM FSSW 1200 WOAI
Wed 18 @ Orlando
Amway Center, Orlando, FL
1200 WOAI
Fri 20 vs Kings
AT&T Center, San Antonio, TX
7:30 PM FSSW 1200 WOAI
Sat 21 @ Houston
Toyota Center, Houston, TX
7:00 PM FSSW 1200 WOAI
Mon 23 @ New Orleans
New Orleans Arena, New Orleans, LA
1200 WOAI
Wed 25 vs Hawks
AT&T Center, San Antonio, TX
7:30 PM FSSW 1200 WOAI
Fri 27 @ Minnesota
Target Center, Minneapolis, MN
7:00 PM FSSW 1200 WOAI
Sun 29 @ Dallas
American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX
5:30 PM FSSW 1200 WOAI
Mon 30 @ Memphis
FedExForum, Memphis, TN
7:00 PM FSSW 1200 WOAI
February Opponent Time Local TV Nat TV Radio
Wed 01 vs Rockets
AT&T Center, San Antonio, TX
7:30 PM FSSW 1200 WOAI
Thu 02 vs Hornets
AT&T Center, San Antonio, TX
7:30 PM FSSW 1200 WOAI
Sat 04 vs Thunder
AT&T Center, San Antonio, TX
7:30 PM KENS 1200 WOAI
Mon 06 @ Memphis
FedExForum, Memphis, TN
7:00 PM FSSW 1200 WOAI
Wed 08 @ Philadelphia
Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia, PA
6:00 PM FSSW 1200 WOAI
Sat 11 @ New Jersey
Prudential Center, Newark, NJ
7:00 PM KENS 1200 WOAI
Tue 14 @ Detroit
Palace of Auburn Hills, Detroit, MI
6:30 PM FSSW 1200 WOAI
Wed 15 @ Toronto
Air Canada Centre, Toronto, ON
6:00 PM FSSW 1200 WOAI
Sat 18 @ L.A. Clippers
Staples Center, Los Angeles, CA
2:30 PM FSSW 1200 WOAI
Mon 20 @ Utah
EnergySolutions Arena, Salt Lake City, UT
8:00 PM FSSW 1200 WOAI
Tue 21 @ Portland
Rose Garden, Portland, OR
9:00 PM FSSW 1200 WOAI
Thu 23 @ Denver
Pepsi Center, Denver, CO

At Phili and Memphis, where they haven't had success in years? Those aren't sure-wins at all. Any home game they should have a decent chance to win, provided it isn't the second of a b2b or on the later end of their first b2b2b.

[rascal]

They will win enough games to make the playoffs.
There are enough weak teams in the league to get enough wins.

Making the playoffs will not be the best thing for the team.
Getting a top lottery pick next year is the better option.

[analyzed]

They will win enough games to make the playoffs.
There are enough weak teams in the league to get enough wins.

Making the playoffs will not be the best thing for the team.
Getting a top lottery pick next year is the better option.

The more I think about it, although there is a slim chance missing the narrowly the playoffs will translate to a top 6 draft pick. It still might be the bettor option in the long run. Let's face it if we do make the playoffs as a low seed (which is probably the case) and are matched up against a top seed (OKC or Lakers) chances are high it will be a short series, yeah we could make it competitive but more than likely we will be out in the 1st round. With the Spurs history of nothing less than a ring being a succesful season. Yeah the more I think about it missing the playoffs could be the better alternative.

How Managment , coaching staff and players go about that is another thing. I certainly am not for tanking.. or mailing it in. That sets a bad precedent and is so against the Spurs corporate culture.

[Werdsniper2]

To me, this seems like the perfect time to rebuild. Manu has a broken hand, and is reaching old man status. Duncan is over the hill and quickly sprinting down it. Parker has parked his potential and is only looking downward from here.

It is time to rebuild, and even the most determined Spurs fans know this is true.

We have started with Kawhi...a nice, dedicated defensive piece to a long-term puzzle.

We have Gary Neal who is a deadly shooter, and 6th man for many years to come.

Splitter is an emerging big with above average defensive talents and developing offensive game.

JA... what I would consider a tweener, can score at a nice rate. That is...of course, if he can actually put the ball through the twine. Lately, he has shown he cannot.

Regardless. This team is on its last legs, and it is time to refurbish and rebuild.

Keep the old to teach the new. Bring in the new to succeed the old.

[TD 21]

Bump . . .

I can't believe how many of you fell for this again. When will you people ever learn? As long as the big three and Pop are still around, this team will find a way to remain competitive.

[N0 LyF3 ScRuB]

I think this is what made his scoring dip. He never really was the same after this. Just glad he stepped it up in 14'

[kuato]

Manu will not play on the World Cup, there is a lot of problems with Argentina NT right now, corruption type problems...