Surviving Manu Ginobili's Injury

[timvp]

Welp, that sucks. Manu Ginobili has a fractured fifth metacarpal in his shooting hand. To begin the season, Ginobili was playing MVP-caliber basketball. He was shooting better than ever, scoring at the rim and playing energetic defense. Overall, Ginobili was playing about as well as he possibly can play.

How long is he out?

It will depend on whether Ginobili needs surgery. From my research of similar injuries, if he doesn't need surgery, he'll likely be out 4-to-6 weeks. If Ginobili does need surgery, he'll be out about eight weeks.

The best case scenario is if Ginobili can heal as fast as Tony Parker did in 2010. That year, Parker fractured the fourth metacarpal in his shooting hand and was able to return in four weeks. (Then again, Parker is a quick healer while Ginobili ... is not.)

How many games will he miss?

If Ginobili is out four weeks, he'll miss 19 games and would be back just in time for the Rodeo Road Trip. If he's out six weeks, he'll miss 25 games. If Ginobili can't return for the full eight weeks, the Spurs will be without their star guard for 31 games. In that scenario, he'd be sidelined until a couple games after the All-Star break.

What's the silver lining?

I don't see a silver lining in this situation. To navigate this compressed schedule without running out of gas, the Spurs needed the Big Three healthy and sharing the load. Now, following this news, Tim Duncan and Tony Parker will have to expend a lot of energy just to keep the Spurs afloat. And when he eventually returns, Ginobili will have to go at 100 mph if San Antonio is to make the playoffs.

The slim hopes the Spurs had to win a championship this season rested on the team peaking at the right time. That may be an impossibility now.

Is it time to tank?

Tanking isn't going to happen right now. If the rest of the team stays healthy, they aren't going to lose enough games to properly tank. And with Duncan in perhaps his final season, there's no way the coaching staff tells him to stop trying. In theory, there's a good argument to be made with regards to taking advantage of what will be a top draft class. But the reality is the Spurs will fight as hard as possible to make the playoffs.

What record is needed to make the playoffs?

Six teams are a lock to make the playoffs: Dallas, OKC, Denver, Portland and both Los Angeleses. I don't count Memphis as a lock but they are very likely to be in. That would mean the Spurs are in a fight with everyone else. Out of that group, the best teams are likely Houston, Phoenix and maybe a surprise team like Minnesota.

The last two seasons, the Rockets have finished as the ninth seed with a record that translates to about 35-31 in this shortened season. If the Spurs can play .500 basketball with Ginobili out and remain in one piece, they should remain a strong bet for the playoffs. Even if the Spurs win only 40% of their games and Ginobili misses the full eight weeks, that would put San Antonio at 15-21, which would mean the Spurs would need to win about 20 of their final 30 games to get in.

So basically, if the Spurs can win half their games with Ginobili out, they should be okay. Slightly worse than that is still doable, provided they are capable of a sprint to the finish.

How do the Spurs suvive with Ginobili?

It won't be easy, that's for sure. Ginobili has been the best player on the team this year … and it hasn't been close at all.

To pick up the slack, here's what will be needed from the key players:

Tim Duncan
Let's not sugarcoat it: Tim Duncan, thus far, looks like he has reached the end of the road. Last year, even though his numbers were down, he was still a really good defender who was still capable of carrying the offense at times. This season? He's playing like an average NBA bigman -- and that's a colossal drop from any point in his career.

With Ginobili out, it would be nice if Duncan could do more. Problem is, I'm not sure he can. After losing weight in the offseason, he appears to simply not have the strength to hold his position on the low block, which has resulted in all of his post moves being nullified. For him to score down low, he's going to have to adjust and score more going east and west instead of toward the rim. Duncan also needs to rely on his jumper more than ever.

Truthfully, I'm not convinced Duncan can pick up any of the slack. I expect him to get better (11 points and eight rebounds per game on 45% shooting should be attainable) but others will need to rise to the occasion if the Spurs hope to survive sans Ginobili. The days of Duncan putting this team on his back are over.

Tony Parker
When it comes to distributing the basketball, Parker has been better than ever this season. He's handing out assists at a career-high rate and turning the ball over at a career-low rate. While that's a plus, Parker's ability to score the basketball himself has been missing in action thus far. He's averaging only 13.2 points per game on 39.3% shooting from the field.

Taking a closer look at his numbers, the outside jumper hasn't been the problem for Parker this season. He's 14-for-35 (40%) on shots 10 feet and out, which is better than he's shot from that range in the last few years. Parker, instead, is having trouble finishing at the rim (45% instead of his usual 65%) and hitting his floaters (25% instead of his usual 53%).

While it's possible that Parker has lost some athleticism and can no longer finish as well near the basket, I think he'll be able to turn it around. Without Ginobili, Parker is going to have to pick it up scoring-wise; at least 20 points per game would be a good goal. Career-best distributing alone won't be enough.

Richard Jefferson
On the surface, Richard Jefferson seems to be having a really good year offensively. His shooting percentages are high and he's scoring better than he ever has as a Spur. But a closer look shows that his numbers are hollow.

One of Jefferson's main strengths the last two seasons has been his ability to get to the free throw line. In fact, when the Spurs traded for him, his high free throw rate was perhaps the thing the Spurs liked most. This year, he has a grand total of three free throw attempts (one of which was a technical free throw). And it's easy to see why: Jefferson simply doesn't drive to the basket anymore. So far this season, all he does is launch catch-and-shoot jumpers.

With Ginobili out, Jefferson will need to take a leading role in the offense. He can't simply be a one-trick pony. If you remember correctly, Jefferson was originally acquired to be Ginobili-insurance after the Argentine missed the 2009 playoffs due to injury. Now we'll see if RJ has the ability to take on a bigger role in the offense. The first step for him will be for him to take more steps toward the basket.

James Anderson
At times, James Anderson has played like a natural scorer. He can create shots and has a smooth release. Unfortunately, Anderson hasn't been able to the hit the broad side a barn thus far. He's only 3-for-16 on three-pointers and 4-for-21 on all shots outside of 15 feet.

Pop has already said that Anderson will slide into the starting shooting guard role. The first thing Anderson will need to do is shoot it straight. He's simply not an NBA level player unless he's hitting at least 37-38% of his three-pointers. If he can hit the open three again, anything else he provides offensively will be gravy.

By the time Ginobili is back, the Spurs will have a lot better idea whether or not Anderson is a legit player. The early returns so far this season don't look promising but there's time … and now an opportunity.

Gary Neal
Gary Neal has yet to play following an appendectomy, but he began a rehab stint with the Austin Toros yesterday and the Spurs expect him back this week. That, of course, is good news. Neal proved as a rookie to be a capable scorer and an excellent shooter. The sooner he can return to form, the sooner the Spurs can start leaning on him for consistent production. If Anderson struggles, Neal could quickly find himself as the starter.

Kawhi Leonard
Like Anderson, Kawhi Leonard hasn't been able to hit a jumper -- he's just 3-for-13 on shots from at least 15 feet away. Unlike Anderson, Leonard can do enough to help even if he's not a knock-down shooter. His rebounding has been phenomenal and his defense has been really good at times. The best way for Leonard to pick up the slack would be to play with a lot more energy. Ginobili's relentlessness will be be missed -- Leonard is one of the few players who can bring that to the table. And, yes, a few more jumpers finding net would be welcomed, too.

Danny Green
Quietly, Danny Green has been really good in his limited time this year. His perimeter defense has been excellent, his rebounding has been great and he's never hesitant on the offensive end. If any of the three players listed above can't pull their weight, Green should be given a chance. He's not a star in the making or anything like that but he may be an NBA quality rotation player as an 8th or 9th man.

TJ Ford
Ginobili always does a lot of the playmaking whenever he's on the court. If Ford can prove that he can still make plays consistently, that could really help soften the blow. However, so far, we haven't seen that out of Ford. He has shown playmaking ability in flashes but has yet to string it together.

DeJuan Blair and Tiago Splitter
Without Ginobili and with a suddenly average Duncan, DeJuan Blair and Tiago Splitter need to provide as much low post scoring as possible. They've both shown the ability to do so but things will be a lot more difficult without Ginobili around to occupy the defense.

So, do you think the Spurs can survive?

I think they can. It's going to be difficult, don't get me wrong, but as long as the remaining Big Two play reasonably well and a few of the young players come along for the ride, the Spurs should be able to win something close to half their games. When Ginobili returns, the Spurs should then have enough time to fight their way into the playoff picture.

That said, I'd say this injury lowers the championship hopes from 3% to about 1%. I just don't think the Spurs will be able to reach the playoffs with enough gas left in the tank for a championship run.

[Cane]

There's a silver lining if it means that Manu's absence helps develop guys like Anderson, Leonard, Neal, even give a vet like RJ more freedom, etc. Kind of like when Parker was injured not too long ago, that let George Hill get a lot of time and help reach the playoffs as the 7th seed. But you definitely don't want to wear out the rest of the Big 3 to do so.

To me, things aren't looking good at all. Several Spurs veterans look like they're already not 100% like Tony Parker, Tim Duncan, and Matt Bonner. Duncan took some nasty collisions and body contact throughout this short season and even sacrificed his body to take a charge or two, which has to take a toll in addition to his aging knees. Parker doesn't look anywhere near as quick or dangerous to the paint as he used to be, whether thats by design or if its because of father time, we'll find out soon enough. Matt Bonner looks even more useless battling in the paint then he ever has and IIRC has a knee issue.

Hopefully giving more freedom and opportunities to the rest of the Spurs will help make up for Manu's absence, not looking good though.

For a championship run, the Spurs are going to need health, luck, and a trade to improve the frontcourt.

[ginobilized]

Good write up as usual, timvp.

I truly fear that Blair especially will be much less effective on offense without Ginobili. Splitter also, but, to a lesser extent.

I'll be there Wednesday to take in my first live action this year.

Go, Spurs, Go!!!!

[phxspurfan]

Gary Neal
Gary Neal has yet to play following an appendectomy, but he began a rehab stint with the Austin Toros yesterday and the Spurs expect him back this week. That, of course, is good news. Neal proved as a rookie to be a capable scorer and an excellent shooter. The sooner he can return to form, the sooner the Spurs can start leaning on him for consistent production. If Anderson struggles, Neal could quickly find himself as the starter.

I see Gary Neal as the key. We all know the Spurs don't have the personnel to keep teams scoring in the 80s anymore. So that leaves the Suns ball strategy. The Spurs as currently constructed don't have the firepower to beat most teams in shootouts without Manu. Somebody will have to step up, overachieve, energize the team and give everyone a morale boost for 4-6 weeks. I would say the guy to do it if there are no F.O. moves made is Gary Neal.

If he can get on track in Austin and come to the rescue in a week or so, that would give the Spurs enough time to integrate him into a PG/SG role similar to his role last season and serve as main gunner for TP's drive-and-kick. And with Gary Neal going off, the rest of teh Spurs would likely see hope as they have not yet seen him play this season. It would be like subtracting Manu's play-making but adding Neal's.

And crazy thing is, given last season's heroics, I think Neal can do it.

[The ADMIRAL 50]

Great post as usual TIMVP

I'm working on an article now that covers a lot of the same stuff, but hopefully it'll have a few new points in it as well for the people to consider.

One thing that did look promising was how well Duncan played to start the game last night, unfortunately it was pretty much exclusively through knocking down jumpers. I really don't think we can count on him for much this year, even with Manu out I don't see much of an increase in his role. If there is, though, he'll just be completely spent by the playoffs, like the past couple years versus Memphis and Phoenix.

[ALVAREZ6]

I think the Spurs can still come in as a 7 or 8 seed, but it's going to depend a lot on how well all players not named Parker or Duncan play. Everyone's going to need to pick up some of the slack, hopefully Neal and Anderson can get into some scoring rhythm. I could see Parker having some huge games in Manu's absence as he will have the trigger to shoot as much as he wants, and we will need him to, because we really don't have many players that can create their own offense. With a lot of touches, he should have some games where he lights it up if he's hot.

It's hard to predict the winning percentage though...Manu hasn't been out for this long of a stretch in a while. This is a different Duncan, and their are many new/young players that will need to step it up.

[cantthinkofanything]

Good write up as usual, timvp.

I truly fear that Blair especially will be much less effective on offense without Ginobili. Splitter also, but, to a lesser extent.

I'll be there Wednesday to take in my first live action this year.

Go, Spurs, Go!!!!

I agree with this 100%. But I think all the younger players will suffer. It's a cliche I guess but Manu is one of those players that makes everyone on the court better. With TP running most of the plays, it's going to limit the involvement of everyone else in the offense. I do think that Blair suffers the most though.

[polandprzem]

Say what you want but Parker and RJ are the ones which are capable of stepping up.

We do not have a guy like GHill and Neal is out.

Parker can lead the team and RJ with more space and good shape /he is in now/ is the one we are looking for.


James is too unenergetic
Kawhi is too rookie and makes too many mistakes
Blair is now robbed because Gino was creating him most
Splitt gonna play his game
Tim is unable to step up, he actually needs to step back, hide on D and be playmaking big
TJ looks a noobie and not an NBA playmaker who can adapt quick

[cantthinkofanything]

Say what you want but Parker and RJ are the ones which are capable of stepping up.

We do not have a guy like GHill and Neal is out.

Parker can lead the team and RJ with more space and good shape /he is in now/ is the one we are looking for.


James is too unenergetic
Kawhi is too rookie and makes too many mistakes
Blair is now robbed because Gino was creating him most
Splitt gonna play his game
Tim is unable to step up, he actually needs to step back, hide on D and be playmaking big
TJ looks a noobie and not an NBA playmaker who can adapt quick

Holy what an abortion of a post.

[polandprzem]

Holy what an abortion of a post.

In what meaning?

[wildbill2u]

Everything good that could happen will have to happen to make the 8th playoff slot.

It isn't likely but it is possible. We'll see who can lift their games in the next couple of weeks.

[polandprzem]

It's funny but I really think Spurs can hold on to 4th 5th spot without Ginobili

[Bruno]

While it's possible that Parker has lost some athleticism

I don't think Parker relatively slow start is because of a loss of athleticism. As strangely as it sounds, I think he is a little out of shape.

Parker played this summer and fall with French NT and with L'ASVEL. He looked very good with both teams. My guess is that Pop feared that Parker wouldn't last the whole season so he decided to basically shut him down during the preseason. Pop already did that in the past and Parker playing time during preseason games (DNP-CD and 17min) confirms that. Parker just needs to get back in the shape he was when he was in Europe and it should happen very quickly.

[polandprzem]

I don't think Parker relatively slow start is because of a loss of athleticism. As strangely as it sounds, I think he is a little out of shape.

Parker played this summer and fall with French NT and with L'ASVEL. He looked very good with both teams. My guess is that Pop feared that Parker wouldn't last the whole season so he decided to basically shut him down during the preseason. Pop already did that in the past and Parker playing time during preseason games (DNP-CD and 17min) confirms that. Parker just needs to get back in the shape he was when he was in Europe and it should happen very quickly.

And 1

[Libri]

Say what you want but Parker and RJ are the ones which are capable of stepping up.

We do not have a guy like GHill and Neal is out.

Parker can lead the team and RJ with more space and good shape /he is in now/ is the one we are looking for.

I doubt RJ will become a protagonist. He can't make his own shot or drive past anybody. Nevertheless, he's forced to try, no choice.

[polandprzem]

I doubt RJ will become a protagonist. He can't make his own shot or drive past anybody. Nevertheless, he's forced to try, no choice.

If any doubts there is nobody else and RJ seems to look good this season. Sqeeze what we can out of him.


With TP taking more responsibilities they can work more 2 man game.

Anderson was a joke all games this year.


It;s obvious everybody needs to step up but from all the spurs squad I see those both guys who can do it at the moment.

[Arc]

too many doom and gloomers on here. we have one of the deepest teams in the league. we'll be fine.

[mexicanjunior]

Everything good that could happen will have to happen to make the 8th playoff slot.

That would be the worst case scenario. Better to have a chance to improve the team through the lottery than have a first round exit, followed by the same team back next year.

[Brazil]

I don't think Parker relatively slow start is because of a loss of athleticism. As strangely as it sounds, I think he is a little out of shape.

Parker played this summer and fall with French NT and with L'ASVEL. He looked very good with both teams. My guess is that Pop feared that Parker wouldn't last the whole season so he decided to basically shut him down during the preseason. Pop already did that in the past and Parker playing time during preseason games (DNP-CD and 17min) confirms that. Parker just needs to get back in the shape he was when he was in Europe and it should happen very quickly.

that's a really interesting take. TP was clearly playing some very good and solid bb during the lockout and he was supposedly prepared for the season thanks to all the games he played in Europe.

[TDomination]

Oddly enough, I feel kind of excited about the opportunity to see what these players have to show.

They know their chances were already slim and now with Manu gone, EVERY players role has significantly increased.

We definitely are not expected to win many games at this point, so I hope they take a backs against the wall, balls to the wall, us against the world approach.

And I expect Parker to try and take it to another level, and I truly believe he will.

[urunobili]

Awesome breakdown.

I guess Neal's role is cristal clear no. And timvp, we would only contend if we suddently learn that JA and Leonard are for real and can really contribute at this level. 12 points each would be a dream.

Having said that, I think that if Neal goes back to his previous form he could very well end up being a 15 ppg scorer for us though im not sure without Manu whose going to create the open shots he enjoyed last season for him. He's on a contract year so he could very well come back to near star level and earn a 3.5 mill a year contract like RMJ's.

[wildbill2u]

That would be the worst case scenario. Better to have a chance to improve the team through the lottery than have a first round exit, followed by the same team back next year.

I don't entirely disagree with your preference, but the subject was how to survive this season without Manu and presumably to make the playoffs.

Personally, I think the cards are stacked against us given the shortened season and the status of the Big 3 right now. Remember this may be the final year of the Big 3 in any event since Timmy may realize the wheels have come off, and so the FO may trade TP and then Manu may decide to become a full-time father without TD & TP.

Whether an all hands on deck rally to make the playoffs is a good idea for the future of the franchise is above our pay grade.

[tmtcsc]

Way too optimistic. The situation is depressing and we aren't making the playoffs.

Here's to next year !

[ALVAREZ6]

That would be the worst case scenario. Better to have a chance to improve the team through the lottery than have a first round exit, followed by the same team back next year.

I disagree. I think the Thunder are an overrated regular season team (much like the Spurs last season), and I think the Spurs, if healthy, can give them a run for their money in the playoffs. I still see them as a young and dumb team, largely because of Russell Westbrook. I was watching them a few nights ago and they can play some sloppy ass ball. We all know how terrible Westbrook's decision making is, and if the games are close, down the stretch I give the edge to the more veteran team.

[Fergie The Florists]

RIP Spurs.... long overdue tbh