DeJuan Blair and Defensive Rebounding

[timvp]

In recent weeks, I've expressed my concern about DeJuan Blair's lack of defensive rebounds. The once prolific rebounder has turned into a liability on the defensive glass. Why is this a big deal?

First of all, rebounding is supposed to be Blair's main strength as a player. He was one of the best rebounders in the league in each of his first two seasons in the NBA. His beastly rebounding numbers helped hide some of his flaws -- most notably his weaknesses on defense.

Most Spurs fans realize that Blair is a liability on defense. However, I doubt many realize just how bad. Last year, opponents had an average PER of 22.4 when going up against Blair -- the worst mark in the entire NBA. To put that in perspective, Derrick Rose won an MVP last year with a PER of 23.6. So basically, last season Blair was turning every player he played against into an MVP candidate level player.

This year, Blair's defense has been better. However, due to his lack of size and lack of leaping ability, he's always going to be a major negative on that end. Defensive rebounding, though, was supposed to mitigate some of the damage.

The other reason why Blair's lack of defensive rebounding is concerning is the fact that it could be a sign that he's already declining physically. Yes, he's only 22 years old, but he literally faces every major risk factor of an early physical peak. Players who peak early do so typically due to knee or back injuries, being extraordinarily short for their position or being heavy. Check, check, check.

I've always thought Blair would have a short NBA career (I'll be surprised if he's still in the league at age 30) simply due to his build and his lack of ACLs but I had hoped his peak would be later than 22. Defensive rebounding, more than just about anything else, is what's first to go for undersized power forwards.

As you can see in this month-by-month chart of Blair's career, the drop in his defensive rebounding this season has been rather shocking:

Defensive Rebounds per 40 Minutes
http://img46.imageshack.us/img46/5254/blairrebounding.jpg

Just how bad was Blair's defensive rebounding heading into last game against the Blazers? Mattheus Aloysius Bonner was grabbing defensive boards at a higher rate.

One explanation offered by some in this forum for the drop was that these Spurs have more rebounders than Spurs teams of the past. While that may be true, the Spurs currently corral 4.3% fewer defensive rebounds when Blair was on the court. They go from being a decent rebounding team when he's on the court to becoming elite when he's on the bench. Thus, it's obvious that Blair's drop in production in this area is effecting the team as a whole.

The good news is that Blair grabbed a season-high nine defensive boards against the Blazers. His previous season high was only five. Going forward, let's hope that's a sign of things to come. If not, justifying Blair as a starter will become that much more difficult.

[DPG21920]

Do you think the fact he seems to be out on the perimeter more with regards to defensive assignments and the fact he leaks out so much has anything to do with it? I've noticed he's busting his butt to get down the court fast on misses and he has been the recipient of many long passes where he has an opportunity for a lay up.

[TDMVPDPOY]

very frustrating to watch blair play on the court,

his in the same box as fkn bonner...

[Mel_13]

Despite the falloff on the defensive side, he is ranked 3rd in offensive rebounding percentage:

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/psl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=single&type=totals&per_minute_base=36&lg_id=NBA&is_playoffs=N&year_min=2012&year_max=2012&franch_id=&season_start=1&season_end=-1&age_min=0&age_max=99&height_min=0&height_max=99&birth_country_is=Y&birth_country=&is_active=&is_hof=&is_as=&as_comp=gt&as_val=0&pos_is_g=Y&pos_is_gf=Y&pos_is_f=Y&pos_is_fg=Y&pos_is_fc=Y&pos_is_c=Y&pos_is_cf=Y&qual=trb_per_g_req&c1stat=&c1comp=gt&c1val=&c2stat=&c2comp=gt&c2val=&c3stat=&c3comp=gt&c3val=&c4stat=&c4comp=gt&c4val=&c5stat=&c5comp=gt&c6mult=1.0&c6stat=&order_by=orb_pct

[Cant_Be_Faded]

Yeah I was a doubter about him possibly declining, but I'm starting to worry now.

Just watching him play and bang, without looking at numbers, we haven't seen the active beastly performance, wreaking sheer havoc on the boards like he showed us from time-to-time in previous seasons.

22? Man, lets hope he is just loafing or somethin

[Cant_Be_Faded]

Yeah I was a doubter about him possibly declining, but I'm starting to worry now.

Just watching him play and bang, without looking at numbers, we haven't seen the active beastly performance, wreaking sheer havoc on the boards like he showed us from time-to-time in previous seasons.

22? Man, lets hope he is just loafing or somethin

Blair had 4 defensive rebounds tonight, but 2 were in late in the 4th that just fell right into his hands....

[DPG21920]

I was going to say that as well, Mel. Many have noted how he's been pretty beastly on the offensive glass. I wonder if it's a symptom of a newer philosophy where he leaks out on stops and actually tries to go for offensive rebounds when they used to get back on defense.

[Russ]

Do you think the fact he seems to be out on the perimeter more with regards to defensive assignments and the fact he leaks out so much has anything to do with it? I've noticed he's busting his butt to get down the court fast on misses and he has been the recipient of many long passes where he has an opportunity for a lay up.

It also looks like Blair is assigned to take any opposing big who releases when the Spurs shoot. Perhaps it's because he's the big whom they can most afford to lose on the borads, but I did notice it . . .

[timvp]

Do you think the fact he seems to be out on the perimeter more with regards to defensive assignments and the fact he leaks out so much has anything to do with it? I've noticed he's busting his butt to get down the court fast on misses and he has been the recipient of many long passes where he has an opportunity for a lay up.

It could account for a bit of a drop but it can't account for Blair going from elite to sub-Bonner.


Despite the falloff on the defensive side, he is ranked 3rd in offensive rebounding percentage:

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/psl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=single&type=totals&per_minute_base=36&lg_id=NBA&is_playoffs=N&year_min=2012&year_max=2012&franch_id=&season_start=1&season_end=-1&age_min=0&age_max=99&height_min=0&height_max=99&birth_country_is=Y&birth_country=&is_active=&is_hof=&is_as=&as_comp=gt&as_val=0&pos_is_g=Y&pos_is_gf=Y&pos_is_f=Y&pos_is_fg=Y&pos_is_fc=Y&pos_is_c=Y&pos_is_cf=Y&qual=trb_per_g_req&c1stat=&c1comp=gt&c1val=&c2stat=&c2comp=gt&c2val=&c3stat=&c3comp=gt&c3val=&c4stat=&c4comp=gt&c4val=&c5stat=&c5comp=gt&c6mult=1.0&c6stat=&order_by=orb_pct

Good point and I should have touched on that in the OP. His offensive rebounding is really helpful and he's doing it better than ever this season. I think it's partly by design and partly because he's playing much more in the low block this year. It could be a good sign for Blair, however offensive rebounding has more variables attached to it than defensive rebounding.

[Mel_13]

I was going to say that as well, Mel. Many have noted how he's been pretty beastly on the offensive glass. I wonder if it's a symptom of a newer philosophy where he leaks out on stops and actually tries to go for offensive rebounds when they used to get back on defense.

Could very well be.

A few things:

Blair is playing the majority of his minutes next to Tim. We've seen Tim become the de facto center over the years, but he is spending less and less time in the post on offense over the last few years.

Look at tonight's game. On defense, Tim covered Gortat which places him near the basket for the defensive rebounds. Blair spent most of his time guarding Morris and Frye who are often out beyond the arc (the two of them took nine 3's). So on the defensive side, Blair is most often guarding the opposing frontcourt player who plays away from the basket.

Then on the offensive side, look where Tim was taking his shots. Now look at Tim's offensive rebounding percentage compared to his career numbers:

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/d/duncati01.html

The lowest numbers of his career by a huge margin...

[DPG21920]

Makes sense. I think it explains a chunk of it, but Blair could definitely use some more effort on that end. He looks fine to me athletically, but I think he is sucked out because of defensive assignments and is running the floor harder. He is operating inside more on offense when paired with Tim by design, so even though OFF REB is less consistent, the fact Blair is an extremely effective OFF REB leads me to believe he is ok physically.

[Capt Bringdown]

Blair = fool's gold. Regular season beast (occasionally) but a guaranteed playoff liability. Leave it to Pop to try to turn this scrub into an NBA starter - AGAIN.
Splitter is our strong hand going forward.

[GSH]

Opponents making such a high percentage of shots that there are fewer defensive boards to pull down?

That's an ugly thought.

[Mel_13]

Then there's the Bonner effect. Blair and Bonner have played only 29 minutes together through the first 13 games. He played a much higher percentage of his minutes with Bonner during his first two seasons. Minutes with Bonner were minutes where he didn't have to compete with a teammate for defensive boards.

[TJastal]

Could very well be.

A few things:

Blair is playing the majority of his minutes next to Tim. We've seen Tim become the de facto center over the years, but he is spending less and less time in the post on offense over the last few years.

Look at tonight's game. On defense, Tim covered Gortat which places him near the basket for the defensive rebounds. Blair spent most of his time guarding Morris and Frye who are often out beyond the arc (the two of them took nine 3's). So on the defensive side, Blair is most often guarding the opposing frontcourt player who plays away from the basket.

Then on the offensive side, look where Tim was taking his shots. Now look at Tim's offensive rebounding percentage compared to his career numbers:

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/d/duncati01.html

The lowest numbers of his career by a huge margin...

Add to the mix Leonard is getting alot of minutes in the starting lineup lately and might be stealing a good chunk of Blair's would-be boards.

[TJastal]

Blair = fool's gold. Regular season beast (occasionally) but a guaranteed playoff liability. Leave it to Pop to try to turn this scrub into an NBA starter - AGAIN.
Splitter is our strong hand going forward.

Don't worry it's all part of Pop's master plan, you see.. he really does trust Splitter. It'll all be unveiled soon. Just have some faith.

[TJastal]

So where's the great ChuckD, I would have thought he'd be all over this thread like a 14 year old boy looking at his first playboy.

[Mel_13]

Add to the mix Leonard is getting alot of minutes in the starting lineup lately and might be stealing a good chunk of Blair's would-be boards.

That's probably a factor. Despite Blair's decline, the Spurs were still 5th in the NBA in team defensive rebounding percentage going into tonight's game.

[Mel_13]

Don't worry it's all part of Pop's master plan, you see.. he really does trust Splitter. It'll all be unveiled soon. Just have some faith.

You really need to watch the games.

[GSH]

BTW - I would have said that the decline in Blair's boards has a lot to do with him not just camping under the basket, and that he's become a more effective all-around player. But the numbers don't seem to bear that out. I hate that.

I was noticing during the game that it looks like he's lost weight since the pre-season. So that's good, right? On the other hand, maybe he needs da butt for rebounding.

[BG_Spurs_Fan]

Seems like Spurs players read SpursTalk and do whatever it takes to prove posters wrong - see KBP's Tiago thread, Timvp's Parker thread, this one, etc.

So, in that spirit, someone should start a What is wrong with Neal thread. The Spurs could do with some 3s for the upcoming road games :)

[Bruno]

Even if Blair is having his best statistical year with a 20.4 PER, I do agree that these defensive rebounding numbers are a little worrisome. You can try to find some contextual explanations like lineups or matchups but when you look at games, Blair is less active than in the past. What I find a huge reach is linking this drop of activity with Blair declining.

Just look at the situation:
1) Blair isn't known for having a great work ethic.
2) The offseason was 7 months long including 5 months without access to Spurs staff.
3) The training camp was only 2 weeks long.
4) The schedule is crazy with very little rest between games.

So, what is the most logical explanation of Blair not looking good physically?
He isn't in the best condition/shape and suffer from the condensed season.
or
He start declining at 22 years old.

You be the judge on that...

[cheguevara]

I like his defense this year.

I take this year's D + rebounding over last years.

[TJastal]

Even if Blair is having his best statistical year with a 20.4 PER, I do agree that these defensive rebounding numbers are a little worrisome. You can try to find some contextual explanations like lineups or matchups but when you look at games, Blair is less active than in the past. What I find a huge reach is linking this drop of activity with Blair declining.

Just look at the situation:
1) Blair isn't known for having a great work ethic.
2) The offseason was 7 months long including 5 months without access to Spurs staff.
3) The trainign camp was only 2 weeks long.
4) The schedule is crazy with very little rest between games.

So, what is the most logical explanation of Blair not looking good physically?
He isn't in the best condition/shape and suffer from the condensed season.
or
He start declining at 22 years old.

You be the judge on that...

As Timvp outlined, I don't think its just the fact that his rebounding % has dropped considerably, it's also the fact that even ordinary opponents have a field day against him. If he's already surrendering a league high PER to the most ordinary of the bunch, what's going to happen when he has to face guys like Nowitzki, Ibaka, Randolph & Gasol in the playoffs? This year is suiting up to be a repeat of last year, IMO. The playoffs are usually where your biggest weaknessses will be exposed. Blair without a doubt is a glaring weakness.

[Muser]

Kawhi is probably taking a few boards off him he would of gotten in recent years.

[Mel_13]

That's probably a factor. Despite Blair's decline, the Spurs were still 5th in the NBA in team defensive rebounding percentage going into tonight's game.

Spurs now rank 2nd in the NBA in defensive rebound percentage:

http://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2012.html

[timvp]

Spurs now rank 2nd in the NBA in defensive rebound percentage:

http://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2012.html

The problem is that with Blair on the court, the Spurs are grabbing just ~73% of available defensive rebounds. That would be good for 20th in the league. With Blair on the bench, the Spurs are far and away the best defensive rebounding team in the league.




P.S.

The stats aren't available anywhere but I wouldn't surprised if the Spurs grab >80% of defensive rebounds when Leonard and Green are on the court at the same time. Those two combined gobble up any rebounds the bigs don't get.

[timvp]

Opponents making such a high percentage of shots that there are fewer defensive boards to pull down?

That's an ugly thought.The stat I'm going by is percentage of available rebounds, which shouldn't be impacted by made shots. But yeah, the opposition tends to make more shots with Blair on the court.


It also looks like Blair is assigned to take any opposing big who releases when the Spurs shoot. Perhaps it's because he's the big whom they can most afford to lose on the borads, but I did notice it . . .

Blair is running the court more this year but the situation you described would effect offensive rebounds.

[Mel_13]

The problem is that with Blair on the court, the Spurs are grabbing just ~73% of available defensive rebounds. That would be good for 20th in the league. With Blair on the bench, the Spurs are far and away the best defensive rebounding team in the league.




P.S.

The stats aren't available anywhere but I wouldn't surprised if the Spurs grab >80% of defensive rebounds when Leonard and Green are on the court at the same time. Those two combined gobble up any rebounds the bigs don't get.

Is the source for your data available for free? I'd love to play around with numbers that provide that level of detail.

If not, than a question. What are the team numbers with Blair on the court since KL was moved into the starting line-up?

Btw, I'm not looking to prove that everything with Blair is ok. Far from it. Rather that we're dealing with small sample sizes and a large number of potential explanations. After all, the early numbers also suggest that TD has become a below average to poor offensive rebounder.

[timvp]

Then there's the Bonner effect. Blair and Bonner have played only 29 minutes together through the first 13 games. He played a much higher percentage of his minutes with Bonner during his first two seasons. Minutes with Bonner were minutes where he didn't have to compete with a teammate for defensive boards.Good point. Last year, 20% of Blair's minutes came with Bonner next to him. This year, 10% of his minutes are with Bonner.

But Bonner is averaging more defensive rebounds per minute than Blair this season ... so, when they are on the court together, Bonner likely grabbing more rebounds than Bonner.


Add to the mix Leonard is getting alot of minutes in the starting lineup lately and might be stealing a good chunk of Blair's would-be boards.

It probably is the case. However, the stats show that the Spurs aren't cleaning the defensive glass with Blair on the court. Until that changes, it will be a red flag to me.

If eventually the Spurs start rebounding the same with Blair on the court as Blair off the court due to others covering for him, I'll be satisfied with a lower defensive rebounding rate for Blair. Until then, it's hurting the team and it's a bad sign for Blair in addition to making him less valuable overall.

[SpurNation]

I've noticed that Blair is also being used more as a "box out" component on the defensive end thus helping others to establish better position for a rebound.

Interesting stat as well...
http://www.teamrankings.com/nba/player-stat/efg-percentage
Blair is only second to Richard Jefferson in FG Efficiency% on this team.

[intlspurshk]

SPURS should consider trading him this offseason to get a better draft pick to draft a protocol big man. Investing in him long term is just too risky.

[timvp]

Even if Blair is having his best statistical year with a 20.4 PER, I do agree that these defensive rebounding numbers are a little worrisome. You can try to find some contextual explanations like lineups or matchups but when you look at games, Blair is less active than in the past. What I find a huge reach is linking this drop of activity with Blair declining.

Just look at the situation:
1) Blair isn't known for having a great work ethic.
2) The offseason was 7 months long including 5 months without access to Spurs staff.
3) The training camp was only 2 weeks long.
4) The schedule is crazy with very little rest between games.

So, what is the most logical explanation of Blair not looking good physically?
He isn't in the best condition/shape and suffer from the condensed season.
or
He start declining at 22 years old.

You be the judge on that...

Good post. However, the "not in good shape" argument is hurt by the fact that when Blair ballooned up to 300+ pounds last season, his defensive rebounding numbers didn't suffer. I can't imagine he's in worse shape right now than when he was when driving circles around his local Whataburger.

Hopefully you are right. Taking a slightly different angle, one possibility is that the condensed schedule isn't allowing for sufficient rest for his knees. Blair deals with a lot of swelling after each game in both knees due to his lack of ACLs so maybe he needs more rest than most young players.

We'll have to wait to draw any conclusions until the middle of next season. That said, I'd by lying if I said I'm confident Blair's defensive rebounding decline isn't due to his lack of ACLs bringing an early decline to his athleticism.

[timvp]

Is the source for your data available for free? I'd love to play around with numbers that provide that level of detail.

The source is 82games.com player pages. The info doesn't take into account the last two games in which the Spurs grabbed 80% of available defensive rebounds, so it'll be interesting to see what the numbers look like in the next update.

An extra bonus of adding Leonard to the starting lineup is that he can get the rebounds that Blair doesn't get anymore (for whatever reasons). If it gets to the point that Blair's lack of defensive rebounding doesn't effect the team, I'll be satisfied and I will be able to buy that perhaps the decline is somewhat related to a tactical shift.


After all, the early numbers also suggest that TD has become a below average to poor offensive rebounder.

With Duncan playing high post this year, I expect a pretty big drop in his offensive rebounding numbers. Probably not as large of a drop that has played out so far but he'll no doubt be worse than ever in that category.

[Mel_13]

The source is 82games.com player pages.

Thanks.

[TJastal]

Timvp. Goods. Synonymous.

[rmt]

Blair is too offense happy (and who can blame him when Pop doesn't stress defense). He's actually a bit better this year than last year. Then it seemed like whenever he got it he was going to shoot no matter what hail Mary, wing and a prayer he was tossing toward the basket.

The graphs from TIMVP's thread on defense are just depressing. Splitter had the least big man minutes yesterday and Bonner/Blair combined for 48:37. No wonder Spurs are at the bottom of the league in all those defensive stats. It's ridiculous to shoot over 64% and lose a game. Why won't Pop play the big man with most size and upside :bang ?

[TJastal]

Blair is too offense happy (and who can blame him when Pop doesn't stress defense). He's actually a bit better this year than last year. Then it seemed like whenever he got it he was going to shoot no matter what hail Mary, wing and a prayer he was tossing toward the basket.

The graphs from TIMVP's thread on defense are just depressing. Splitter had the least big man minutes yesterday and Bonner/Blair combined for 48:37. No wonder Spurs are at the bottom of the league in all those defensive stats. It's ridiculous to shoot over 64% and lose a game. Why won't Pop play the big man with most size and upside :bang ?

The most disturbing part is ppl are satisfied with Tim Duncan playing out the last few years of his career with a guy who leads the league in opponents' average PER. Cuz, you know, it's too much of a risk to pair him with the other liability on the team named Bonner.

[Cant_Be_Faded]

The problem is that with Blair on the court, the Spurs are grabbing just ~73% of available defensive rebounds. That would be good for 20th in the league. With Blair on the bench, the Spurs are far and away the best defensive rebounding team in the league.




P.S.

The stats aren't available anywhere but I wouldn't surprised if the Spurs grab >80% of defensive rebounds when Leonard and Green are on the court at the same time. Those two combined gobble up any rebounds the bigs don't get.

Wow. I had no idea we were that good. We have come a long way since 06-09 when rebounding was a severe weakness. Surely, our rebounding is a great sign for this teams playoff hope. Been a very interesting season to follow.

[Mel_13]

Wow. I had no idea we were that good. We have come a long way since 06-09 when rebounding was a severe weakness. Surely, our rebounding is a great sign for this teams playoff hope. Been a very interesting season to follow.

NBA rank in team defensive rebounding percentage:

05-06: 8th
06-07: 3rd
07-08: 1st
08-09: 1st

[Cant_Be_Faded]

Well shit on me. Coulda fooled me the way the, mavericks dominated us on the boards

[smrattler]

I've always thought Blair would have a short NBA career (I'll be surprised if he's still in the league at age 30) simply due to his build and his lack of ACLs but I had hoped his peak would be later than 22. Defensive rebounding, more than just about anything else, is what's first to go for undersized power forwards.


I think most Spurs fans assumed he might only last us a few good years. Anything after that is a bonus.

But as far as his steady decline on the boards, I figured it was nothing more than having made the rounds and getting more attention. I think his first year every team he played against got torched (per minute) by him on the boards. At the very least, I think he made an impression on most teams and now gets game-planned against.

I forgot who said it the other night, regarding Danny Green, after Green had a great night. The opponent said something like "We didn't know who Danny Green was." And kind of hinted that, "We'll know next time."

I think this is all this is. Young guys come in, all kinds of talent, and catch teams by surprise. Then they figure out how to take away your strengths and you have to fight through it and work hard to find other ways to get it done.

As far as his work, to me it seems like Blair has put a lot of emphasis on his offensive game lately. He might take his rebounding prowess for granted while teams get better at limiting him there. That might be contributing to this decline too.

[GSH]

The problem is that with Blair on the court, the Spurs are grabbing just ~73% of available defensive rebounds. That would be good for 20th in the league. With Blair on the bench, the Spurs are far and away the best defensive rebounding team in the league.



That stat really jumped out. That doesn't seem to be something you could explain except that Blair isn't getting it done on the glass.

Still, I had the Portland game recorded, so just for laughs I watched the whole thing for the plays where Blair was on defense. His rebounding, in and of itself, didn't look that bad. But I did notice that he spent a lot of time away from the basket, on Aldridge, and that he switched several p&r's that left him out of position for rebounding. There were a few plays, though, where it looked like he was content to just stand and watch.

So I thought, hey - the big problem with Blair missing defensive boards would be if the opponents are getting offensive boards, right?. (Maybe not the only problem, but the one that hurts the score.) Because if Blair misses a defensive rebound opportunity to a teammate, that's not such a bad thing. That made me wonder: of the offensive boards that the opponents are getting, what percentage are they getting with Blair in the game?

I went back 5 games worth of play-by-plays. (Then I had to take a break.) But here's what they showed.
Phoenix: Blair was in 66% of the time. The Suns got 60% of their offensive boards while he was in. (6/10)
Portland: Blair was in 58% of the time. Portland got 60% of their offensive boards while he was in. (6/10)
Houston: Blair was in 33% of the time. Houston got 20% of their offensive boards while he was in. (3/15)
Milwaukee: Blair was in 50% of the time. Bucks got 71% of their offensive boards while he was in. (*5/7)
OKC: Blair was in 38% of the time. OKC got 29% of their offensive boards while he was in. (2/7)
*Against Milwaukee, the Bucks got 3 offensive boards on a single play. One of those maddening episodes where the Spurs just can't corral the ball, and the other team keeps missing the putbacks. The rest of the time, Blair really wasn't missing out on an excessive number of available defensive boards.

Between watching the one game, and looking at all five play-by-plays, here are a few things that stood out about Blair's rebounding:

1. Blair just loses focus from time to time. Sometimes he doesn't go after a rebound when it looks like a teammate has it corralled, or when it looks like an "obvious" made shot by the opponent. Then when the ball bounces out, he's standing in no man's land, watching. Those are the real problem cases.
2. A lot of the offensive boards given up when Blair is in the game happen right near the end of quarters, and during garbage time. It looks to me like Blair has already mentally gone to sit down, rather than finishing strong. When you're dealing with relatively small samples, a few plays like that can really skew the numbers. I didn't see any of them that actually hurt the Spurs, but that doesn't matter.
3. It looks to me like he's spending a lot more time this year defending guys like Scola and Aldridge, away from the basket. Sometimes he's out of rebounding position because of bad defense earlier in the play. Sometimes he legitimately can't get back, and those boards are the responsibility of his teammates. Blair's rebounding depends on being under the basket and rooting for position. When he's away from the basket and trying to crash inward, the taller guy is going to get it a lot more often.

Bottom line - I don't think the problem with Blair rebounding is his knees. It's his head. Partly because his head isn't in some plays, and partly because his head is too close to the ground. I'm sure his teammates are covering up for some of his off plays. But for the most part, the Spurs' opponents aren't getting extra offensive boards when Blair is in the game vs. when he is out.

I don't know if it looks different, further back. My eyes are bleeding from combing through five play-by-plays. One thing I do wonder about the stats on 82 games is what all they include - small samples and all that. For instance, a shot blocked by Tim that goes to an opposing player counts as a missed shot, and an offensive rebound for the opponents. A desperation shot that clanks off the iron at the last second counts as a missed shot and a missed defensive rebound opportunity. (Nobody gets a rebound.)

I know it goes against perception, but (for 5 games at least) the Spurs' opponents really aren't getting as many offensive boards with Blair in the game vs. with him out. Maybe he should still be getting more boards, and maybe his teammates covered for him. But Blair's rebounding doesn't seem to be killing the Spurs' point differential. At least not lately.

[TJastal]

That stat really jumped out. That doesn't seem to be something you could explain except that Blair isn't getting it done on the glass.

Still, I had the Portland game recorded, so just for laughs I watched the whole thing for the plays where Blair was on defense. His rebounding, in and of itself, didn't look that bad. But I did notice that he spent a lot of time away from the basket, on Aldridge, and that he switched several p&r's that left him out of position for rebounding. There were a few plays, though, where it looked like he was content to just stand and watch.

So I thought, hey - the big problem with Blair missing defensive boards would be if the opponents are getting offensive boards, right?. (Maybe not the only problem, but the one that hurts the score.) Because if Blair misses a defensive rebound opportunity to a teammate, that's not such a bad thing. That made me wonder: of the offensive boards that the opponents are getting, what percentage are they getting with Blair in the game?

I went back 5 games worth of play-by-plays. (Then I had to take a break.) But here's what they showed.
Phoenix: Blair was in 66% of the time. The Suns got 60% of their offensive boards while he was in. (6/10)
Portland: Blair was in 58% of the time. Portland got 60% of their offensive boards while he was in. (6/10)
Houston: Blair was in 33% of the time. Houston got 20% of their offensive boards while he was in. (3/15)
Milwaukee: Blair was in 50% of the time. Bucks got 71% of their offensive boards while he was in. (*5/7)
OKC: Blair was in 38% of the time. OKC got 29% of their offensive boards while he was in. (2/7)
*Against Milwaukee, the Bucks got 3 offensive boards on a single play. One of those maddening episodes where the Spurs just can't corral the ball, and the other team keeps missing the putbacks. The rest of the time, Blair really wasn't missing out on an excessive number of available defensive boards.

Between watching the one game, and looking at all five play-by-plays, here are a few things that stood out about Blair's rebounding:

1. Blair just loses focus from time to time. Sometimes he doesn't go after a rebound when it looks like a teammate has it corralled, or when it looks like an "obvious" made shot by the opponent. Then when the ball bounces out, he's standing in no man's land, watching. Those are the real problem cases.
2. A lot of the offensive boards given up when Blair is in the game happen right near the end of quarters, and during garbage time. It looks to me like Blair has already mentally gone to sit down, rather than finishing strong. When you're dealing with relatively small samples, a few plays like that can really skew the numbers. I didn't see any of them that actually hurt the Spurs, but that doesn't matter.
3. It looks to me like he's spending a lot more time this year defending guys like Scola and Aldridge, away from the basket. Sometimes he's out of rebounding position because of bad defense earlier in the play. Sometimes he legitimately can't get back, and those boards are the responsibility of his teammates. Blair's rebounding depends on being under the basket and rooting for position. When he's away from the basket and trying to crash inward, the taller guy is going to get it a lot more often.

Bottom line - I don't think the problem with Blair rebounding is his knees. It's his head. Partly because his head isn't in some plays, and partly because his head is too close to the ground. I'm sure his teammates are covering up for some of his off plays. But for the most part, the Spurs' opponents aren't getting extra offensive boards when Blair is in the game vs. when he is out.

I don't know if it looks different, further back. My eyes are bleeding from combing through five play-by-plays. One thing I do wonder about the stats on 82 games is what all they include - small samples and all that. For instance, a shot blocked by Tim that goes to an opposing player counts as a missed shot, and an offensive rebound for the opponents. A desperation shot that clanks off the iron at the last second counts as a missed shot and a missed defensive rebound opportunity. (Nobody gets a rebound.)

I know it goes against perception, but (for 5 games at least) the Spurs' opponents really aren't getting as many offensive boards with Blair in the game vs. with him out. Maybe he should still be getting more boards, and maybe his teammates covered for him. But Blair's rebounding doesn't seem to be killing the Spurs' point differential. At least not lately.

Appreciate the work you did sifting through the PBP, GSH. Maybe it's not Blair's fault the spurs are a worse defensive rebounding team when he's in. A few anomalies can skew the data this early on. I think another look at the data later on in the season would be more telling.

I do however think the fact that opponents are averaging the highest PER in the league against him specifically is 100X more disturbing than a few missed rebounds.

[therealtruth]

Appreciate the work you did sifting through the PBP, GSH. Maybe it's not Blair's fault the spurs are a worse defensive rebounding team when he's in. A few anomalies can skew the data this early on. I think another look at the data later on in the season would be more telling.

I do however think the fact that opponents are averaging the highest PER in the league against him specifically is 100X more disturbing than a few missed rebounds.

That's why finding another rotation big is so important. It gets Blair out of the starting lineup. He's not starting material on a championship team.

[GSH]

Appreciate the work you did sifting through the PBP, GSH.

We got sick of the weak-assed curriculum, so I'm home-schooling two kids. When I'm not doing any consulting work, I have time on my hands.

Also, the only time I drink coffee is when the weather gets cold. Recently, the weather's been cold.

Put those two things together, and I'm a freaking research machine. :clap

[Cant_Be_Faded]

Has anyone mentioned how maybe, Blair's weight loss had led to the defensive rebounding drop off? Maybe he is getting pushed around, more and has trouble maintaining position at his new weight

[Nathan89]

I do however think the fact that opponents are averaging the highest PER in the league against him specifically is 100X more disturbing than a few missed rebounds.

Oh... I didn't know this.:depressed

[wildbill2u]

During the Heat game I noticed that a couple of times Blair had good position for defensive rebounding, but tipped the ball up in the air. Taller players with hops--notably Chris Bosh--simply went up and over him for the ball.

You can't always overcome a height disadvantage, even with good inside position.

[timvp]

The latest numbers are in ... and they aren't encouraging for DeJuan Blair and his ability to grab defensive rebounds. When Blair is on the court, the Spurs are 5.6% less likely to grab a defensive rebound. To put it in context, only the Magic defensive rebound the ball better than the Spurs when Blair is on the bench. When Blair is on the court, 16 teams in the league grab defensive rebounds at a higher rate than the Spurs.

And this update isn't even counting the Magic game. In the 17 minutes Blair was on the court, the Magic grabbed 12 offensive rebounds. In the 36 minutes Blair was on the bench, the Magic grabbed the same number of offensive boards. Obviously, those numbers look really ugly for Blair.

Subjectively, he was doing an extremely poor job of boxing out against the Magic. As of late, he's personally grabbing more defensive rebounds but it also appears he's giving up even more offensive rebounds. Not a very good development . . .

[TJastal]

The latest numbers are in ... and they aren't encouraging for DeJuan Blair and his ability to grab defensive rebounds. When Blair is on the court, the Spurs are 5.6% less likely to grab a defensive rebound. To put it in context, only the Magic defensive rebound the ball better than the Spurs when Blair is on the bench. When Blair is on the court, 16 teams in the league grab defensive rebounds at a higher rate than the Spurs.

And this update isn't even counting the Magic game. In the 17 minutes Blair was on the court, the Magic grabbed 12 offensive rebounds. In the 36 minutes Blair was on the bench, the Magic grabbed the same number of offensive boards. Obviously, those numbers look really ugly for Blair.

Subjectively, he was doing an extremely poor job of boxing out against the Magic. As of late, he's personally grabbing more defensive rebounds but it also appears he's giving up even more offensive rebounds. Not a very good development . . .

Jeebus, wasn't this supposed to be his one great strength, rebounding the basketball?

Personally I can't wait until both the turd towers are flushed out of SA.

[Bruno]

A quick look at some stats:

Team defensing rebounding when Blair is on the court:
09-10: 72.8%
10-11: 71.7%
11-12: 72.8%

Team defensing rebounding when Blair is off the court:
09-10: 73.9%
10-11: 72.9%
11-12: 77.1%

Blair defensive rebounds per 36 minutes
09-10: 7.9 (9th in the league among qualified players)
10-11: 7.3 (13th in the league among qualified players)
11-12: 5.3 (88th in the league among qualified players)

So:
- Spurs with Blair are rebounding the ball defensively as good or better this year than in previous years.
- Blair defensive rebounding offset has gone from -1.2% in 09-10 and 10-11 to -4.3% this year because Spurs are doing a way better job than in the past at rebounding the ball when Blair isn't on the court.
- Despite Blair being statically an elite defensive rebounder in 09-10 and 10-11, Spurs were defensively rebounding the ball better when Blair was off the court.

These stats are bad for Blair. What is truly important isn't having some good personal defensive rebounding stats, it's that the team defensively rebound well as an unit. Things like boxing out, not fighting for a rebound with a teammate are important and don't appear in personal stats.
Labeling Blair as a great rebounder seems wrong. The correct label would be a great offensive rebounder.

[Amuseddaysleeper]

So should Blair be put on the trading block? I know since his contract is cheap I'm not sure what kind of value he'll bring in return. His offense has come along nicely.

[ohmwrecker]

It seems like Blair has been trying to improve on his weak areas this season. I've noticed that when some players concentrate on improving an overall game, that their strengths tend to suffer. Also, opponents have a better grasp on his game and have adjusted accordingly. Hopefully, this is all just temporary.

[TJastal]

It seems like Blair has been trying to improve on his weak areas this season. I've noticed that when some players concentrate on improving an overall game, that their strengths tend to suffer. Also, opponents have a better grasp on his game and have adjusted accordingly. Hopefully, this is all just temporary.

Too bad everybody who plays against him is an MVP candidate going by the PER numbers.

[smrattler]

It seems like Blair has been trying to improve on his weak areas this season. I've noticed that when some players concentrate on improving an overall game, that their strengths tend to suffer. Also, opponents have a better grasp on his game and have adjusted accordingly. Hopefully, this is all just temporary.

Almost a summary of what I wrote, so, I agree 100%!

Both parts of your post are my best guess too.

[Stalin]

http://img684.imageshack.us/img684/3774/stalinparents.jpg (http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/684/stalinparents.jpg/)
Uploaded with ImageShack.us (http://imageshack.us)

[ohmwrecker]

Almost a summary of what I wrote, so, I agree 100%!

Both parts of your post are my best guess too.

Yeah, I don't read through whole threads anymore. So, I probably missed your post.
:toast

[GSH]

It seems like Blair has been trying to improve on his weak areas this season. I've noticed that when some players concentrate on improving an overall game, that their strengths tend to suffer. Also, opponents have a better grasp on his game and have adjusted accordingly. Hopefully, this is all just temporary.

I was thinking the same thing - but I don't know. Here's an article that isn't about the Spurs, but definitely on the subject. It talks about how DeAndre Jordan would benefit the team more if he focused on defensive rebounding, rather than shot-blocking. Kinda wondering if the Spurs' defensive efficiency wouldn't improve overall, if Blair wasn't trying to be as well-rounded, and went back to what got him here.

http://hangtime.blogs.nba.com/2012/01/20/film-study-shot-blocking-gone-bad/?ls=iref:nbahpt1
Over the last four years, there has been a positive correlation between defensive efficiency (points allowed per 100 possessions) and the percentage of their opponents shots that a team blocks. But the correlation is not as strong as the one between defensive efficiency and defensive rebounding percentage.

[therealtruth]

I was thinking the same thing - but I don't know. Here's an article that isn't about the Spurs, but definitely on the subject. It talks about how DeAndre Jordan would benefit the team more if he focused on defensive rebounding, rather than shot-blocking. Kinda wondering if the Spurs' defensive efficiency wouldn't improve overall, if Blair wasn't trying to be as well-rounded, and went back to what got him here.

http://hangtime.blogs.nba.com/2012/01/20/film-study-shot-blocking-gone-bad/?ls=iref:nbahpt1
Over the last four years, there has been a positive correlation between defensive efficiency (points allowed per 100 possessions) and the percentage of their opponents shots that a team blocks. But the correlation is not as strong as the one between defensive efficiency and defensive rebounding percentage.

Good link. I've always felt blocks were overrated. They certainly have their uses but good defense is much more than that. Stoudemire has averaged over a block a game for his career but isn't that great of a defender. Rodman never averaged a block a game and was usually way under but he's one of the best post defenders in NBA history.

[playblair]

BLAIR haters :lol..................