In recent weeks, I've expressed my concern about DeJuan Blair's lack of defensive rebounds. The once prolific rebounder has turned into a liability on the defensive glass. Why is this a big deal?
First of all, rebounding is supposed to be Blair's main strength as a player. He was one of the best rebounders in the league in each of his first two seasons in the NBA. His beastly rebounding numbers helped hide some of his flaws -- most notably his weaknesses on defense.
Most Spurs fans realize that Blair is a liability on defense. However, I doubt many realize just how bad. Last year, opponents had an average PER of 22.4 when going up against Blair -- the worst mark in the entire NBA. To put that in perspective, Derrick Rose won an MVP last year with a PER of 23.6. So basically, last season Blair was turning every player he played against into an MVP candidate level player.
This year, Blair's defense has been better. However, due to his lack of size and lack of leaping ability, he's always going to be a major negative on that end. Defensive rebounding, though, was supposed to mitigate some of the damage.
The other reason why Blair's lack of defensive rebounding is concerning is the fact that it could be a sign that he's already declining physically. Yes, he's only 22 years old, but he literally faces every major risk factor of an early physical peak. Players who peak early do so typically due to knee or back injuries, being extraordinarily short for their position or being heavy. Check, check, check.
I've always thought Blair would have a short NBA career (I'll be surprised if he's still in the league at age 30) simply due to his build and his lack of ACLs but I had hoped his peak would be later than 22. Defensive rebounding, more than just about anything else, is what's first to go for undersized power forwards.
As you can see in this month-by-month chart of Blair's career, the drop in his defensive rebounding this season has been rather shocking:
Defensive Rebounds per 40 Minutes
Just how bad was Blair's defensive rebounding heading into last game against the Blazers? Mattheus Aloysius Bonner was grabbing defensive boards at a higher rate.
One explanation offered by some in this forum for the drop was that these Spurs have more rebounders than Spurs teams of the past. While that may be true, the Spurs currently corral 4.3% fewer defensive rebounds when Blair was on the court. They go from being a decent rebounding team when he's on the court to becoming elite when he's on the bench. Thus, it's obvious that Blair's drop in production in this area is effecting the team as a whole.
The good news is that Blair grabbed a season-high nine defensive boards against the Blazers. His previous season high was only five. Going forward, let's hope that's a sign of things to come. If not, justifying Blair as a starter will become that much more difficult.
Do you think the fact he seems to be out on the perimeter more with regards to defensive assignments and the fact he leaks out so much has anything to do with it? I've noticed he's busting his butt to get down the court fast on misses and he has been the recipient of many long passes where he has an opportunity for a lay up.
very frustrating to watch blair play on the court,
his in the same box as fkn bonner...
Despite the falloff on the defensive side, he is ranked 3rd in offensive rebounding percentage:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/...der_by=orb_pct
Yeah I was a doubter about him possibly declining, but I'm starting to worry now.
Just watching him play and bang, without looking at numbers, we haven't seen the active beastly performance, wreaking sheer havoc on the boards like he showed us from time-to-time in previous seasons.
22? Man, lets hope he is just loafing or somethin
Yeah I was a doubter about him possibly declining, but I'm starting to worry now.
Just watching him play and bang, without looking at numbers, we haven't seen the active beastly performance, wreaking sheer havoc on the boards like he showed us from time-to-time in previous seasons.
22? Man, lets hope he is just loafing or somethin
Blair had 4 defensive rebounds tonight, but 2 were in late in the 4th that just fell right into his hands....
Last edited by Cant_Be_Faded; 01-15-2012 at 11:28 PM.
I was going to say that as well, Mel. Many have noted how he's been pretty beastly on the offensive glass. I wonder if it's a symptom of a newer philosophy where he leaks out on stops and actually tries to go for offensive rebounds when they used to get back on defense.
It also looks like Blair is assigned to take any opposing big who releases when the Spurs shoot. Perhaps it's because he's the big whom they can most afford to lose on the borads, but I did notice it . . .
It could account for a bit of a drop but it can't account for Blair going from elite to sub-Bonner.
Good point and I should have touched on that in the OP. His offensive rebounding is really helpful and he's doing it better than ever this season. I think it's partly by design and partly because he's playing much more in the low block this year. It could be a good sign for Blair, however offensive rebounding has more variables attached to it than defensive rebounding.
Could very well be.
A few things:
Blair is playing the majority of his minutes next to Tim. We've seen Tim become the de facto center over the years, but he is spending less and less time in the post on offense over the last few years.
Look at tonight's game. On defense, Tim covered Gortat which places him near the basket for the defensive rebounds. Blair spent most of his time guarding Morris and Frye who are often out beyond the arc (the two of them took nine 3's). So on the defensive side, Blair is most often guarding the opposing frontcourt player who plays away from the basket.
Then on the offensive side, look where Tim was taking his shots. Now look at Tim's offensive rebounding percentage compared to his career numbers:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/...duncati01.html
The lowest numbers of his career by a huge margin...
Makes sense. I think it explains a chunk of it, but Blair could definitely use some more effort on that end. He looks fine to me athletically, but I think he is sucked out because of defensive assignments and is running the floor harder. He is operating inside more on offense when paired with Tim by design, so even though OFF REB is less consistent, the fact Blair is an extremely effective OFF REB leads me to believe he is ok physically.
Blair = fool's gold. Regular season beast (occasionally) but a guaranteed playoff liability. Leave it to Pop to try to turn this scrub into an NBA starter - AGAIN.
Splitter is our strong hand going forward.
Opponents making such a high percentage of shots that there are fewer defensive boards to pull down?
That's an ugly thought.
Then there's the Bonner effect. Blair and Bonner have played only 29 minutes together through the first 13 games. He played a much higher percentage of his minutes with Bonner during his first two seasons. Minutes with Bonner were minutes where he didn't have to compete with a teammate for defensive boards.
Add to the mix Leonard is getting alot of minutes in the starting lineup lately and might be stealing a good chunk of Blair's would-be boards.
Don't worry it's all part of Pop's master plan, you see.. he really does trust Splitter. It'll all be unveiled soon. Just have some faith.
So where's the great ChuckD, I would have thought he'd be all over this thread like a 14 year old boy looking at his first playboy.
That's probably a factor. Despite Blair's decline, the Spurs were still 5th in the NBA in team defensive rebounding percentage going into tonight's game.
You really need to watch the games.
BTW - I would have said that the decline in Blair's boards has a lot to do with him not just camping under the basket, and that he's become a more effective all-around player. But the numbers don't seem to bear that out. I hate that.
I was noticing during the game that it looks like he's lost weight since the pre-season. So that's good, right? On the other hand, maybe he needs da butt for rebounding.
Seems like Spurs players read SpursTalk and do whatever it takes to prove posters wrong - see KBP's Tiago thread, Timvp's Parker thread, this one, etc.
So, in that spirit, someone should start a What is wrong with Neal thread. The Spurs could do with some 3s for the upcoming road games
Even if Blair is having his best statistical year with a 20.4 PER, I do agree that these defensive rebounding numbers are a little worrisome. You can try to find some contextual explanations like lineups or matchups but when you look at games, Blair is less active than in the past. What I find a huge reach is linking this drop of activity with Blair declining.
Just look at the situation:
1) Blair isn't known for having a great work ethic.
2) The offseason was 7 months long including 5 months without access to Spurs staff.
3) The training camp was only 2 weeks long.
4) The schedule is crazy with very little rest between games.
So, what is the most logical explanation of Blair not looking good physically?
He isn't in the best condition/shape and suffer from the condensed season.
or
He start declining at 22 years old.
You be the judge on that...
I like his defense this year.
I take this year's D + rebounding over last years.
As Timvp outlined, I don't think its just the fact that his rebounding % has dropped considerably, it's also the fact that even ordinary opponents have a field day against him. If he's already surrendering a league high PER to the most ordinary of the bunch, what's going to happen when he has to face guys like Nowitzki, Ibaka, Randolph & Gasol in the playoffs? This year is suiting up to be a repeat of last year, IMO. The playoffs are usually where your biggest weaknessses will be exposed. Blair without a doubt is a glaring weakness.
Kawhi is probably taking a few boards off him he would of gotten in recent years.
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