Player Pairs Analysis - Jan. 28, 2013

[timvp]

These Player Pairs statistics take a look at how the Spurs perform when various possible tandems are on the court at the same time. The numbers in the cells correspond to the tandem comprised of the name in the column and the name in the row. For example, as you can see below, the Spurs outscore their opponents by 12.5 points per 100 possessions when Duncan is on the court with Parker.

The cells are color coded based on the following rules:

Light Green - The player in the column improved the impact of the player in the row.
Dark Green - The player in the column improved the impact of the player in the row by a significant* amount.
Light Red - The player in the column worsened the impact of the player in the row.
Dark Red - The player in the column worsened the impact of the player in the row by a significant* amount.
Light Blue - The player's impact when he's on the court under any circumstance.
Dark Blue - The tandem hasn't yet accumulated enough minutes together.
* - 25% in the first chart, 2.5% in the two subsequent charts

http://www.spurstalk.com/jan28pp1.png

http://www.spurstalk.com/jan28pp2.png

http://www.spurstalk.com/jan28pp3.png


-Tim Duncan’s numbers are extremely solid across the board. He’s second on the team in differential (+10.7) and his offensive numbers are particularly great. Duncan makes everyone better on offense other than Leonard -- and that’s only a slight drop. Defensively, at first glance his numbers may look mildly disappointing. However, it’s important to note how well Duncan is defensively when paired with Parker. That’s important because: 1) Duncan will be on the court almost exclusively with Parker when it matters most 2) Duncan’s weakness defensively is defending the pick-and-roll and while Parker is good to very good at defending pick-and-rolls, the backup point guards are either bad or really bad at it.

-Tony Parker’s numbers are also very strong. Third best differential (+10.6) -- only a shade behind Duncan. His defensive numbers are stout, especially when paired with the players he plays with most. Offensively, I don’t see anything to worry about. Overall, Parker’s numbers endorse what our eyes are telling us in that he’s having a great season.

-Toping the differential, like usual, is Manu Ginobili (+12.4). Unfortunately, I’m actually a little worried about what I see when taking a closer look. His defensive number is great and the best on the team … but it also looks fluky. His numbers with some of the bench players are unsustainably low (most notably Bonner, Blair and Mills). As the season progresses, Ginobili’s defensive number is very likely going to creep up toward 100 (last year, for example, he was north of 105). The reason why he usually dominates the player pairings is because his offensive numbers are so good. This year, he’s only fifth on the team. Considering Ginobili topped the entire NBA last season at 120.7, dropping more than ten points is somewhat worrisome. Additionally, Parker and Splitter being better on offense without him is just … strange. Let’s hope Ginobili’s offensive numbers look better as the season progresses. Six weeks ago (the last time I did player pairs) Ginobili was the best offensively so perhaps this is just a midseason swoon.

-Tiago Splitter has the fourth best differential (+10.4) and a very green differential chart. That’s another sign that the Brazilian is having just a damn great season. He’s played plenty with the starters and plenty with the bench, so it’s safe to say there isn’t much luck involved -- he's just at the top of his game.

-The fact that Splitter and Duncan are doing so well together almost brings a tear to my eye. They’re great offensively together and absolutely devastating defensively. Add in the fact that they play together almost exclusively against the other team’s starters -- and that pairing may be the brightest spot of the entire season thus far.

-On the other end of the spectrum, Splitter with Diaw just doesn’t seem to be working. In theory, it should work. In the real world, it doesn’t. Diaw is the only player who does worse with Splitter on the court. It’s a bad defensive pairing, which is somewhat predictable based on observations, but the fact that it’s also subpar offensively makes me wonder if it’s ever going to work.

-Speaking of Boris Diaw, he sure does have a lot of red. Offensively, he does well as long as he has a member of the Big 3 on the court with him. If he doesn’t, well, it gets ugly fast. Defense is the bigger concern. These numbers say he’s the worst defensive big on the team -- and it’s not even very close. Everyone but Green is worse defensively with him on the court, and even Green is just barely better. If we broke it down further, I’d bet the issue is a lack of defensive rebounding when Diaw is on the court. Whatever it is, the Frenchman needs to figure it out because he hasn’t gotten the job done in the first half of the season … really on either end.

-As long as I’m speaking negatively, let’s bring in Danny Green. Wow. I’ve called him out at times for having horrific defensive games (Kobe Bryant’s first game against him comes to mind, as does his last outing against Jared Dudley). But I find it surprising that he grades out as the absolute worst defender on the team. Considering that he plays most of his minutes next to four above average defenders in Duncan, Splitter, Leonard and Parker, that’s just not acceptable. At all. Last year, he had great defensive numbers in the regular season and the playoffs -- so I’m not sure what happening. Offensively, Green is fine; maybe even better than expected given his streakiness.

-Thinking more about Green’s D numbers, one could point to Ginobili’s fluky great D numbers and say Green’s D could just be fluky in the other direction. I don’t really buy that though because he’s even dragging down the team’s best defenders and some of his numbers are putrid. The only sliver of light I see is his number next to Leonard (98.3). We all saw how horrible Green was when he was shoehorned into playing small forward. Maybe he just really, really needs a strong defensive small forward next to him in order to hide his deficiencies. Whatever the issue, we should keep an eye on it going forward.

-I’m excited about Kawhi Leonard’s numbers for the most part. Defensively, he’s been a beast -- especially next to Duncan and Parker. And the best part of that is that it’s mostly coming against starters. It’s unusual for young players to put up this great of defensive numbers … so this bodes well for his future. As for his offense, it’s a mixed bag. For whatever reason, he dominates when playing with bench players. His dragging down of the Big 3 is a troubling but it should correct itself when he finds his offensive niche.

-One number that I can’t help to laugh at is the pairing of Leonard and Ginobili. There’s just no way that offensive number (104.1) is going to stay so low. Those two players fit together too well for it not to get much better. In fact, last season Leonard and Ginobili’s offensive number was 124.1 -- exactly 20 points higher and the second best mark on the entire team last year. Just a matter of time …

-Another number that stands out is Leonard with Diaw. This pairing is by far Diaw’s best defensive number, which fits with the hypothesis that Diaw’s lack of rebounding hurts his D -- but when he’s played with Leonard, an elite defensive rebounder for a small forward, that weakness is mitigated.

-Truthfully, I’m amazed at Stephen Jackson’s numbers. Subjectively, it looks like he’s struggling. Apparently, though, his struggles aren’t hurting the team. On the contrary, Jackson has the fifth highest differential (+9.2). Offensively, he does really damn well with everyone who’s not deep on the bench. His defense is all over the map pairings-wise but his overall defensive number (101.3) is fine for a player who still looks to be working his way back into shape. If Jackson can straighten out his shooting and improve his D a bit, these numbers say he could be quite a force … and that’s really surprising since six weeks ago his differential was hovering around zero.

-The next highest differential belongs to Matt Bonner. While +8.8 is solid for most players, this is The King of the Plus/Minus we are talking about. Annually, Bonner has always been near the very top -- both on the Spurs and in the league. To be sixth on his own team is underwhelming for his standards. Then again, if we want to view it through rose colored glasses (and, hey, why not?), we can point out that Bonner’s best numbers are when he’s playing next to the Big 3 and Splitter. Perhaps he’s still The King and the only thing that has changed is he’s playing more garbage minutes with the deep bench. I haven’t investigated that premise but it seems to fit.

-Bonner with Ginobili is another pairing that will improve on offense. Last season, that duo was the best offensive pairing in the whole league at 128.4 -- a simply mind-boggling stat that is probably one of the best showings ever. This year, they are at a pedestrian 104. While Bonner and Ginobili won’t reach last season’s mark, there’s no way it’s going to stay this low.

(-Considering that I’ve now pointed out two Ginobili pairings that are bound to improve offensively, I’m starting to think that Ginobili’s numbers are just overall fluky for whatever mystical reasons. Going forward, I’d bet his defensive numbers come back to earth but that his offensive numbers get much better.)

-The seventh best differential on the team belongs to Patrick Mills at +7.2. That number is driven by the fact that the Spurs have been outstanding when Mills is paired with either Parker or Ginobili. And since the sample size is nearly 190 minutes, it’s getting more and more difficult to overlook. If one were to pick a backup point guard just looking at these numbers, the obvious choice would be Mills. He has been great with Ginobili and Jackson, the key perimeter plays off the bench. And while his defense has been iffy (when, that is, he’s not playing with Ginobili or Jackson), his offense is the best of any guard on the team outside of Parker. It’s probably worth giving Mills more minutes to see if these trends hold up.

-DeJuan Blair actually appears to have some value … as long as you keep him away from the starting lineup. Play him with Ginobili against the opposing bench and he should do okay. Defensively, he’s actually been pretty darn good. Is that legit or a statistical anomaly? It’s probably been a little bit of both. While Blair has been more attentive on D this season, I find it hard to believe that Blair with Bonner is suddenly a strong defensive pairing. Considering that Blair is usually horrible when it comes to these pairings, it’s good to see that he has improved a bit. Perhaps that’s due to him playing more against bench players rather than starters this year, which makes sense.

-Coming in second to last in differential is Gary Neal at +5.3. He’s third worst offensively and fourth worst defensively, so it’s difficult to find a silver lining here. The fact the Big 3 each struggles to deal with Neal’s presence on the court is damning. Subjectively, I think he’s good depth to have around. In actuality, these numbers say the Spurs wouldn’t miss him if they opt to trade him.

-Last but maybe not least is Nando De Colo. It’s important to note that rookies universally struggle when looking at their production in this way, especially in the first half of their rookie season. Leonard, for example, had the worst numbers on the team at this time last year. Anthony Davis, the No. 1 pick of the 2012 NBA Draft, is sitting at -8.1 … so, yeah, take De Colo’s +1.4 with a grain of salt. Through the carnage, it’s notable that De Colo has been fine when paired with Ginobili. That gives some hope that he may yet be the answer at backup PG.

[Chinook]

Yeah, I was looking at these numbers the other day. It's clear Green is not having the same impact that he had last season. I can't really explain why, except maybe teams know how to attack him more than they did last year. I still think his numbers with Leonard show that he is still fine as a shooting-guard, but he certainly seems to have progressed. Anti-Green folk will have the numbers on their sides at least until your next player pairs post comes out. Let's all hope he gets back to form by then.

[Fabbs]

Do we need to take acid to see all the colors?
Or do i need to install some latest flash gizmo?

You must have just juiced it because they appeared a bit moreso.
Let me try it after another toke.

[Cane]

Yea not feeling the Easter Egg pastel colors but god damn interesting and great stuff nonetheless! Muchas gracias :flag:

[dylankerouac]

So glad you did this, was looking forward to the updated version.

Cheers.

[Chinook]

Subjectively, I don't think the Spurs are playing as well as they were at the end of last season. They've had some dominant games, but they seem to be trying to find their way still. I don't really know what's holding back. Maybe not enough injury-free games so far?

[Paranoid Pop]

Regarding Splitter Diaw, it just can't work and it's on both of them, it's the reason why Baynes should gets significant minutes ASAP next to Boris.

Regarding Green, like Chinook may point out, he has played too many minutes at SF where he sucks more than anyone that play the position on the roster probably, maybe even Bonner could do better at SF. It's worrying because it tells me that Pop is incredibly in love with him and we know that when he falls in love with a scrub there's nothing to be done about it.

Mills numbers next to TP and Manu make a compelling case for him getting more minutes, if there was a 3 man guards rotation in the PO, I'd think of De Colo as the third guy first but Mills may deserve an extended look. He should work like a madman on his handles, if he can bring the ball up the court vs pressure, there's no reason to deny him backup PG.

[dylankerouac]

Yeah, I was looking at these numbers the other day. It's clear Green is not having the same impact that he had last season. I can't really explain why, except maybe teams know how to attack him more than they did last year. I still think his numbers with Leonard show that he is still fine as a shooting-guard, but he certainly seems to have progressed. Anti-Green folk will have the numbers on their sides at least until your next player pairs post comes out. Let's all hope he gets back to form by then.

Green improving his finishing ability will improve his offensive numbers and will help out overall, seems like he misses a chip shot or two every game, at the very least. I love Green, his offense needs improvement but that typically will improve with more experience and the dude is still NBA-young. He already brings other things to the table that are valuable for this team.

[Paranoid Pop]

Also I'd like to see more Boris at SF, he looks lighter on his feet and I feel like it could greatly improve his numbers on D, I liked what I saw vs Lebron and Pierce. Then again they'd have to trade SJax, not sure what you can get with SJax+Blair...

[playblair]

dejuan has always been a legit defender ........... people blame blair 4 dices failures (scola gasol) .......... dejuan has great hands 4 a big ...........

blair haters will never admit that blair has been a legit defender who gives (griffin thunder dirk) problems .........

[Fabbs]

-The fact that Splitter and Duncan are doing so well together almost brings a tear to my eye. They’re great offensively together and absolutely devastating defensively. Add in the fact that they play together almost exclusively against the other team’s starters -- and that pairing may be the brightest spot of the entire season thus far.
Is the amazing speed with which Lord Poppycock gave these two quantity minutes together just another feather in Hall of Fame Coach of Year CIA Pops NBA basketabull acumen?

Or did Holt or Holt reps finally order Popped to play the tandem? :rollin

[Cry Havoc]

Is the amazing speed with which Lord Poppycock gave these two quantity minutes together just another feather in Hall of Fame Coach of Year CIA Pops NBA basketabull acumen?

Or did Holt or Holt reps finally order Popped to play the tandem? :rollin

Fabbs bads as usual.

[Paranoid Pop]

Something that could be interesting is to only use the two colors for positive and negative impact on the other player average, and to use the nuances to tell about the size of the sample, the darker the color, the bigger/more telling the sample size...

[elemento]

Very nice reading tim

I thought Paranoid would go HAM in this thread but so far he has been nice to Danny, which is funny.

TP/Nando stands out to me. Couldn't tell they played so bad together.

[Spurs Brazil]

Thanks timvp

Great read

[Paranoid Pop]

Very nice reading tim

I thought Paranoid would go HAM in this thread and so has he has been nice to Danny, which is funny.

TP/Nando stands out to me. Couldn't tell they played so bad together.

Well my main problem is that Boris has pretty bad numbers as well...

[spurraider21]

Best defensive duo is apparently Splitter-Blair and best offensive duo is Manu-Mills... So clearly we need a lineup with all 4 of them for guaranteed championships lol

[RodNIc91]

I dont know if you read my commentary the other day but I really appreaciate that you posted this midseason trends. Thanks Timvp!

[Brunodf]

I love those stats, they show what i see:
Neal is bad for the team on both ends
Splitter/Duncan pairing works
Leonard is a great player and should get more minutes
Mills should be the backup PG
Green defense is overrated.

Thanks Timvp

[Chinook]

Green improving his finishing ability will improve his offensive numbers and will help out overall, seems like he misses a chip shot or two every game, at the very least. I love Green, his offense needs improvement but that typically will improve with more experience and the dude is still NBA-young. He already brings other things to the table that are valuable for this team.

Yeah, finishing would help his offensive numbers. But that's not his biggest problem. The fact is last year he was a great rebounder for his position, and he had one of the highest defensive ratings on the team. He's struggling in those areas. He'd have to get significantly better on offense to justify playing him if he can't bring it defensively.

[dylankerouac]

Yeah, finishing would help his offensive numbers. But that's not his biggest problem. The fact is last year he was a great rebounder for his position, and he had one of the highest defensive ratings on the team. He's struggling in those areas. He'd have to get significantly better on offense to justify playing him if he can't bring it defensively.

Right, I just now finished looking at Green's numbers and surprised to find that he did better offensively than defensively. While the numbers show a deficiency on the defensive end I can't complain about what we see on the court since we have seen him make some late game steals and defensive plays in crunch time. Actually come to think of it, it would be nice if there was a clutch defense stat.

[Paranoid Pop]

In the point differential tab, isn't Splitter impact on Sjax negative thus shouldn't it be colored in red, sorry if I completely misunderstood the way the tab are colored...

[dylankerouac]

-DeJuan Blair actually appears to have some value … as long as you keep him away from the starting lineup. Play him with Ginobili against the opposing bench and he should do okay. Defensively, he’s actually been pretty darn good. Is that legit or a statistical anomaly? It’s probably been a little bit of both. While Blair has been more attentive on D this season, I find it hard to believe that Blair with Bonner is suddenly a strong defensive pairing. Considering that Blair is usually horrible when it comes to these pairings, it’s good to see that he has improved a bit. Perhaps that’s due to him playing more against bench players rather than starters this year, which makes sense.


Actually, your player pair analysis in December showed Blair had a more positive presence on the defensive end as well. I remember thinking then what it was that is hurting his results on the offensive end. I wonder if it's just a matter of him needing to expand his offensive game, assuming he has many years left on the court which I'm sure many would argue against. Or perhaps its his rebounding efficiency. I'm really just taking stabs in the dark here.

[Fabbs]

Fabbs bads as usual.
Wonder if Multimoderator or Bruno or admin could get a "Slurping Pop" icon for you PollyAnna Poppers?

[objective]

good work.


The fact that Splitter and Duncan are doing so well together almost brings a tear to my eye. They’re great offensively together and absolutely devastating defensively. Add in the fact that they play together almost exclusively against the other team’s starters -- and that pairing may be the brightest spot of the entire season thus far.

Took long enough for Pop and everyone else to finally recognize that playing Splitter with Duncan is a no-brainer. I still remember vividly the whole, "You can't play Duncan with Splitter! Look at the 5 minutes they played together after Splitter spent 2 weeks getting DNPs! The numbers don't workz!" Wasting two full years of Duncan and Manu's final years is not forgivable.

It's enough to make heads explode like Scanners.


-As long as I’m speaking negatively, let’s bring in Danny Green. Wow. I’ve called him out at times for having horrific defensive games (Kobe Bryant’s first game against him comes to mind, as does his last outing against Jared Dudley). But I find it surprising that he grades out as the absolute worst defender on the team. Considering that he plays most of his minutes next to four above average defenders in Duncan, Splitter, Leonard and Parker, that’s just not acceptable. At all. Last year, he had great defensive numbers in the regular season and the playoffs -- so I’m not sure what happening. Offensively, Green is fine; maybe even better than expected given his streakiness.

The numbers don't surprise me at all because Green is a horribly overrated defender. I have to shake my head at all the posters who continually defend him because he's a '3 and D' player while not recognizing that his D is not good enough. He is carried by the stars on this team and has snookered everyone. If Hairston was given the chances Green has and had more time to work on his three point shot with Chip, Spurs would be better off.

Green is only a useful defender in isos against smaller players like points. He is bad off the ball, always losing his man. He is not good in the pick and roll. He will lose the Spurs a playoff game with his defense.

[Dr. Robert Lee]

More data to confirm that Gary Neal is a worthless hump of dog manure. No surprise.

[biskvito]

Green needs more green

[Brunodf]

good work.



Took long enough for Pop and everyone else to finally recognize that playing Splitter with Duncan is a no-brainer. I still remember vividly the whole, "You can't play Duncan with Splitter! Look at the 5 minutes they played together after Splitter spent 2 weeks getting DNPs! The numbers don't workz!" Wasting two full years of Duncan and Manu's final years is not forgivable.

It's enough to make heads explode like Scanners.



The numbers don't surprise me at all because Green is a horribly overrated defender. I have to shake my head at all the posters who continually defend him because he's a '3 and D' player while not recognizing that his D is not good enough. He is carried by the stars on this team and has snookered everyone. If Hairston was given the chances Green has and had more time to work on his three point shot with Chip, Spurs would be better off.

Green is only a useful defender in isos against smaller players like points. He is bad off the ball, always losing his man. He is not good in the pick and roll. He will lose the Spurs a playoff game with his defense.

Wtf? Can you read my mind? Agree with everything

[Old School 44]

I wonder how blowouts affect these numbers. With the Spurs involved in numerous blowouts, the first players pulled are probably, Duncan, Ginobili, Parker & Splitter, then maybe Leonard and then Green...that leaves Neal, Jackson, Diaw, and maybe even Leonard and Green to close out games in some combination with Mills, Bonner, De Colo, Blair.

[racm]

So to absolutely no one's surprise, the Spurs are making their Twin Towers work when everyone crows about Miami's "positionless" basketball.
Green is often on the court when wings light him up. I think he's on everyone's scouting report by now.
Manu's still great but he isn't as masterful controlling the offense as he was last season.
Tony is having a mind-blowing season of course.

[benfti]

I love these, so interesting, Ive been at work an hour and I'm tipping my whole day is going to be shot now looking at these numbers! cheers timvp

[DPG21920]

Hey, benfti, you didn't know this, but I am your boss. You're fired.

[roycrikside]

LJ, I know the numbers look fluky, but do you think Ginobili in particular has taken Pop's defensive preaching to heart on an individual basis? I know it hasn't always seemed like it for the eye test, but remember, these past few years Ginobili has been gung-ho about emphasizing Pop's bullet point messages to the team for the first 1/3 or 1/2 of the season coming out of training camp.

Like three years ago, it was to play faster, at a faster tempo and it was very noticeable how both he and Parker would just get the ball and go up the court on makes or misses.

Two years ago, Manu spearheaded the early charge toward a #1 seed because he didn't want the team to be in a situation where they'd simply have to fight for a playoff spot at the end of the year, so he was their best player for like the first half of the season.

Pop has made it clear defense matters this year, so why wouldn't Ginobili have a great defensive number, in particular after his rating in that regard was so poor last season? Manu studies the numbers. He knows what's up and I bet he made a priority for himself to improve there.

[Arc]

Anny Green, no D. :lol

timvp, what's your thoughts on Baynes. Do you think he's gonna get any burn this year, or perhaps a sign that the spurs plan on moving Blair pretty soon? I was thinking, if Pop actually played Baynes with Diaw, you could keep Duncan and Splitter on the court for most of the first quarter. Looking at the stats when those two play together, that'd be a very good thing me thinks.

[TMTTRIO]

You have to realize Manu's is close to being done now. Yes he can still be good from time to time but not so much as he has been. I feel like we still rely on him too much to come off the bench and to carry the bench which. We're going to need someone else to step up and do that.

[Cry Havoc]

Wonder if Multimoderator or Bruno or admin could get a "Slurping Pop" icon for you PollyAnna Poppers?

Nah, because at that point he'd have to create a, "I know more about coaching than anyone in the NBA" icon and I doubt it would fit under your avatar.

[td4mvp21]

Danny Green has been disappointing lately.

[Dr. Robert Lee]

Also, Manu and Neal play like shit together while, contrary to popular belief, Manu plays better paired with NANDO. Why the fuck do we trot out that scrub to play PG again? Let NANDO handle PG duties, please, Pop.

[Fabbs]

Nah, because at that point he'd have to create a, "I know more about coaching than anyone in the NBA" icon and I doubt it would fit under your avatar.
I don't know that i can agree with your ascertion that "i know more about coaching than anyone in the NBA."
Pat Riley and i have many times agreed on the same thing.
Phil J, altho i would never stoop to his level of phoniness, does know how to play with a stacked/rigged roster and rigged refs.
I think the late Red A. and i would have beers over his Celts run and the run i would have put on with the Spurs.

Blair and Splitter combo only allowing 83.3 points per?
Course they also have the suckiest scoring per. :lol

[ElNono]

In a nutshell, Gino is a beast, per par... I like it :lol

[MaineSpursFan]

I think that the back up point should be between cojo and decolo. Cojo has proven himself in the d-league (for what its worth) to be an effective decision maker, defender, and scorer, De Colo on the other hand needs to work on his turnovers, they basically negate the amazing assists he makes with the behind the back etc. Cojo being the better defender IMHO I'd be willing to see how he does. We've proven that we can handle playing without duncan, without pop, without leonard, without manu.... But what would happen if we were without TP... scary thought isn't it, you wanna see Neal be the primary ball handler for five or six games in a row if Parker twists an ankle, scary thought isn't it. I'd say if Parker went down we'd have to put Ginobili in at PG and move Neal to back up green, IMHO. Ginobili has amazing BBIQ and is a great passer and a hard worker on both ends of the court

[Strategic]

Maybe Green's numbers are as such because he has been believing all the love he receives from the ST heads? Pop can screw him up a little more and try him out at the point? Seems like only a half dozen wanna be PGs on the roster. Can never have too many. I read somewhere someone was asking for a player to be defined as "white collar". Danny is a spot up shooter that hasn't the ability to penetrate and create. His D is ok, but on offense he is "white collar".

[Obstructed_View]

Really amazing work. Thanks for taking the time.

Wondering if the "enough minutes together" threshold should be raised to remove garbage time. A scrub who gets time with the starters gets a boost, and a starter who plays with the scrubs gets penalized.

[Danny.Zhu]

Great read.

Duncan-Splitter twin tower! LMAO POP!

[Mel_13]

If we got a preview of the playoff guard rotation in the second half of the Phoenix game, then these new numbers support using Mills as the guard best suited to play next to Manu while Tony gets his 5-6 minutes of rest each half.

[Darius McCrary]

Very concerned about Danny. I always shrug off his cold streaks because i assume he's defending well. Maybe this gives us a explanation for why coach Bud doesn't play Danny many late minutes

[Baynes]

Lol, scrub green, so many negatives, cant be compared to other starters.

[DAF86]

I have always said that the Spurs should have hired Carlos Delfino, I always thought he would be a great fit for this team. He would be among the top three point shooters in the league with the Spurs, good pick and roll player, very good rebounder for a wing and his defense is an underrated part of his game, imho > than Greens for example.

[Dr. Robert Lee]

GARY NEAL IS PATHETIC.

[Boomersgold]

Also, Manu and Neal play like shit together while, contrary to popular belief, Manu plays better paired with NANDO. Why the fuck do we trot out that scrub to play PG again? Let NANDO handle PG duties, please, Pop.

Unfortunately, a De Colo-Manu pairing simply doesn't work as well as a Manu-Patty pairing. We all know that Manu's always going to be the "ball-handler" and play maker when he's on the floor, which therefore forces De Colo to be a spot up shooter, a role that De Colo isn't confident with.

[Bruno]

Great post. Thanks timvp. :tu



-On the other end of the spectrum, Splitter with Diaw just doesn’t seem to be working. In theory, it should work. In the real world, it doesn’t. Diaw is the only player who does worse with Splitter on the court. It’s a bad defensive pairing, which is somewhat predictable based on observations, but the fact that it’s also subpar offensively makes me wonder if it’s ever going to work.

With the Diaw/Splitter pair, Spurs are only grabbing 69.7% of the defensive rebounds. It surely explained a lot of the defensive issues.

Offensively, it's a little more complicate than that:
Splitter/Diaw playing with Parker and/or Ginobili (367 minutes): 113.9 pts/100poss
Splitter/Diaw playing without both Parker and Ginobili (99 minutes): 83.3 pts/100poss

The Splitter/Diaw pair needs to be with at least one of Parker and Ginobili to be efficient offensively. Otherwise it's a disaster. It seems to be somewhat logical: Diaw and Splitter are team oriented offensive players and they need a great offensive guard to set them up.



If we broke it down further, I’d bet the issue is a lack of defensive rebounding when Diaw is on the court.

DRB% for Spurs bigmen pairs including Diaw:
Diaw/Blair (93min): 80.8%
Diaw/Duncan (506min): 75.4%
Diaw/Bonner (64min): 71.2%
Diaw/Splitter (466min): 69.7%

My guess about why Diaw and Splitter struggled on the defensive boards when paired is that both are more focused on boxing out that going after the rebounds.



-As long as I’m speaking negatively, let’s bring in Danny Green.

A crazy stat about Green:
+/- for Green playing with both Duncan and Parker (781 min): +188
+/- for Green playing without the Duncan/Parker pair (428 min): -39

The Green/Parker/Duncan trio is scoring 111.3 points while allowing 99.2 points per 100 poss. It's very comparable to what the Parker/Duncan duo is doing (111/98.5). Another stat that show Green dependence to the Parker/Duncan duo is that 53% of his field goals are assisted by either Parker or Duncan.

Green is a strict role player and when he has to do too much either offensively or defensively, he struggles. He has to stay in his pigeonhole.



-Truthfully, I’m amazed at Stephen Jackson’s numbers.

+1



Considering that I’ve now pointed out two Ginobili pairings that are bound to improve offensively, I’m starting to think that Ginobili’s numbers are just overall fluky for whatever mystical reasons.

Ginobili offensively pairing aren't that great but you aren't helping him when comparing to last season. Ginobili eFG% was .618 last season. His second best year was 07-08 with a eFG% of .540. This season, he is at .528 which is close to his career average of .523.

Manu had an amazing regular season last year at shooting the ball and he won't do that again. It surely hurt his pair offensive numbers. Saying that, when you look at what Manu did before last season, his pair offensive numbers should be a little higher.



-The seventh best differential on the team belongs to Patrick Mills at +7.2. That number is driven by the fact that the Spurs have been outstanding when Mills is paired with either Parker or Ginobili. And since the sample size is nearly 190 minutes, it’s getting more and more difficult to overlook. If one were to pick a backup point guard just looking at these numbers, the obvious choice would be Mills.

Looking at pair stats with Ginobili doesn't give a clear picture on the backup PG situation because there are lineups like Parker/Neal/Ginobili.

The offensive ratings/defensive ratings playing with Manu playing SG are:
Neal (148 min): 102.0/100.0
Mills (79 min): 117.5/96.8
De Colo (76 min): 117.2/98.1

Sample sizes are small so it's hard to really draw conclusions but it seems that Neal at PG with Manu at SG doesn't work offensively. Mills and De Colo are about the same.



-Coming in second to last in differential is Gary Neal at +5.3. He’s third worst offensively and fourth worst defensively, so it’s difficult to find a silver lining here. The fact the Big 3 each struggles to deal with Neal’s presence on the court is damning. Subjectively, I think he’s good depth to have around. In actuality, these numbers say the Spurs wouldn’t miss him if they opt to trade him.

Neal has never been good in +/-.
On his career:
- In regular season, Spurs are +4.5 with him per 100 poss and +9.5 without him
- In playoffs, Spurs are -9.8 with him per 100 poss and +11.1 without him.

The bottom line with Neal is that he really hurts the defense and he doesn't help that much the offense. What he add with his individual offense is partially neglected by what he costs to the team offense.

[racm]

Green is a shooter/defender who is streaky on offense and can only defend 1s and 2s. Bigger 2s and 3s give him fits. That said his contract is still reasonable.

Neal IMO should either be traded or only used for specific catch-and-shoot plays.

That said the top 6 for minutes should be (in order), Parker, Duncan, Ginobili, Splitter, Leonard, and Diaw. Those are the Spurs' top 6 players in terms of production.

[temujin]

Timvp, I am always impressed by the effort you put in working on these stats.

I have 3 comments and suggestions to improve the data, plus a specific comment.

1) As Old Scholl 44 and Obstructed View correctly remarked, some numbers might be significantly skewed because of the numerous blowouts, particulalrly for bench players. Correcting for this issue will make the numers more significant, generally speaking. Not sure how to do that, though. Perhaps one can start discounting 4th quarters in which TP and TD did not play. Arbitrary, but not absurd.

2) With POs in mind, it'd be interesting to separate numbers obtained against winning vs losing teams. The former are likely to be more relevant. I suspect, it's still too early to have robust data, though. Probably around 60 games.

3) The third suggestion is, admittedly, arbitrary. Always with POs in mind: given the past history of Popovich unwillingness to play bench rookies, De Colo could be taken out; same for Blair, given 2012 POs and the recent robust watching role. This could simplify 3-ways combinations.

My comment is on players with nagging injuries, which are likely to have affected their data, Neal and Leonard. For Neal, my impression is that he is still not comptetely right.
In that respect, Mr. Ginobili' numbers stand out. Visually, having seen every game, he has been sort of slow getting back to his normal self from 2 injuries.
He is, perhaps, a very special case in which other players play better just because he is in there, no matter what he does.

[Obstructed_View]

Parker/Mills/KL/Duncan/Splitter?

[Paranoid Pop]

Parker/Mills/KL/Duncan/Splitter?

While the numbers support that and I kinda like it based on Mills being a great shooter/potentially decent secondary playmaker, TP/Mills only give up 84 pots per 100 possession, screams flukish small sample size.

To me the three weakest positions are :
- backup PG
- starting SG
- backup center
in no particular order.

Backup PG and starting SG could very much be the same guy. The main problem is that all signs point to Pop being extremely satisfied with what he has at starting SG, he didn't experiment even once since he put Green in the starting lineup last year. To me that's a big cause for concern. I'd like to see De Colo, Mills, KY, MAnu eventually get a shot at it. He tried 3 different PFs ffs.

Backup center is weak because Splitter is not really fit to be a center anymore rebounding wise at least, but then again the problem is will Pop be willing to play Baynes significant minutes to try to fix it or not? Probably not.

[DMC]

Great post. Thanks timvp. :tu



With the Diaw/Splitter pair, Spurs are only grabbing 69.7% of the defensive rebounds. It surely explained a lot of the defensive issues.

Offensively, it's a little more complicate than that:
Splitter/Diaw playing with Parker and/or Ginobili (367 minutes): 113.9 pts/100poss
Splitter/Diaw playing without both Parker and Ginobili (99 minutes): 83.3 pts/100poss

The Splitter/Diaw pair needs to be with at least one of Parker and Ginobili to be efficient offensively. Otherwise it's a disaster. It seems to be somewhat logical: Diaw and Splitter are team oriented offensive players and they need a great offensive guard to set them up.



DRB% for Spurs bigmen pairs including Diaw:
Diaw/Blair (93min): 80.8%
Diaw/Duncan (506min): 75.4%
Diaw/Bonner (64min): 71.2%
Diaw/Splitter (466min): 69.7%

My guess about why Diaw and Splitter struggled on the defensive boards when paired is that both are more focused on boxing out that going after the rebounds.



A crazy stat about Green:
+/- for Green playing with both Duncan and Parker (781 min): +188
+/- for Green playing without the Duncan/Parker pair (428 min): -39

The Green/Parker/Duncan trio is scoring 111.3 points while allowing 99.2 points per 100 poss. It's very comparable to what the Parker/Duncan duo is doing (111/98.5). Another stat that show Green dependence to the Parker/Duncan duo is that 53% of his field goals are assisted by either Parker or Duncan.

Green is a strict role player and when he has to do too much either offensively or defensively, he struggles. He has to stay in his pigeonhole.



+1



Ginobili offensively pairing aren't that great but you aren't helping him when comparing to last season. Ginobili eFG% was .618 last season. His second best year was 07-08 with a eFG% of .540. This season, he is at .528 which is close to his career average of .523.

Manu had an amazing regular season last year at shooting the ball and he won't do that again. It surely hurt his pair offensive numbers. Saying that, when you look at what Manu did before last season, his pair offensive numbers should be a little higher.



Looking at pair stats with Ginobili doesn't give a clear picture on the backup PG situation because there are lineups like Parker/Neal/Ginobili.

The offensive ratings/defensive ratings playing with Manu playing SG are:
Neal (148 min): 102.0/100.0
Mills (79 min): 117.5/96.8
De Colo (76 min): 117.2/98.1

Sample sizes are small so it's hard to really draw conclusions but it seems that Neal at PG with Manu at SG doesn't work offensively. Mills and De Colo are about the same.



Neal has never been good in +/-.
On his career:
- In regular season, Spurs are +4.5 with him per 100 poss and +9.5 without him
- In playoffs, Spurs are -9.8 with him per 100 poss and +11.1 without him.

The bottom line with Neal is that he really hurts the defense and he doesn't help that much the offense. What he add with his individual offense is partially neglected by what he costs to the team offense.

Good read, both you and the OP.

[DMC]

While the numbers support that and I kinda like it based on Mills being a great shooter/potentially decent secondary playmaker, TP/Mills only give up 84 pots per 100 possession, screams flukish small sample size.

To me the three weakest positions are :
- backup PG
- starting SG
- backup center
in no particular order.

Backup PG and starting SG could very much be the same guy. The main problem is that all signs point to Pop being extremely satisfied with what he has at starting SG, he didn't experiment even once since he put Green in the starting lineup last year. To me that's a big cause for concern. I'd like to see De Colo, Mills, KY, MAnu eventually get a shot at it. He tried 3 different PFs ffs.

Backup center is weak because Splitter is not really fit to be a center anymore rebounding wise at least, but then again the problem is will Pop be willing to play Baynes significant minutes to try to fix it or not? Probably not.

Pop knows what Manu can do. He doesn't need to experiment. Nando is as handsy as Tiago was when he came into the league. He needs time to adjust to the league. Baynes cannot play significant minutes on a team he's never practiced with, in a system he doesn't understand. He would turn the ball over any time he touched it (think Lakers where Kobe hit Howard in the back with a pass because they don't know each others' tendencies). You cannot turn a league leading record into a middle of the pack, struggling to make the cut record just to experiment with a "next year" guy, as much as you might want to. Pop has to focus on this year. He's not being graded by his ability to build a champion, but his ability to get the same few well known ticket sellers to the playoffs. Season ticket holders wouldn't be forgiving if Pop shit on the season just to experiment with Baynes.

[Dr. Robert Lee]

Unfortunately, a De Colo-Manu pairing simply doesn't work as well as a Manu-Patty pairing. We all know that Manu's always going to be the "ball-handler" and play maker when he's on the floor, which therefore forces De Colo to be a spot up shooter, a role that De Colo isn't confident with.
The facts do not support this.

[EVAY]

I wonder if the apparent decline in defensive numbers when Diaw is paired with Splitter isn't a function of role assignments. When Splitter is on the floor with Duncan, he will take the defender further away from the basket and Tim will stay closer to the basket for blocks, etc.

When Diaw is on the the floor with Splitter, he is the one taking the defender further away from the basket, and Splitter is the one closest to the basket. But Splitter is not ever going to be the blocker that Tim is, and that number figures largely into the defensive stats. Plus, Splitter is not as good at rebounding as Tim (not bad, mind you, just not as good as Tim), and Diaw is out of position for rebounding because he is so likely to be the guy on the offensive player further away from the basket.

[EVAY]

There is an article in today's local paper about how much the European players are taught a form of basketball that is pass-first rather than one-on-one ball that is the focus in the U.S.

Thus, according to the article, DeColo, Diaw, Ginobili, etc. etc. have much better passing skills than a lot of American players and are also less likely to take lots of shots than American players. It makes sense when you think about it, and it seems to reflect the reality that we get frustrated with DeColo and Diaw not shooting enough, when in fact it is against everything they ever learned to do that.

Think about how Pop has ridden Tony over the years to make him 'more aggressive' with the ball to get him shooting as often as he does now. When he first came here, his main job was to 'geev thee boll to Teemy', who would then make the decision about what play to run and whether or not to shoot or pass. In the last few years as Tim has gotten less physically agile than he was, and as Tony has been molded into the pg that Pop always wanted him to be, the latter role has fallen to Tony to make the decisions about where the ball is to go and who is to shoot, etc. The result has been higher assist and point numbers for Tony, and the offense running through the pg rather than through the pf. DeColo may be able to adjust to this eventually, but Diaw seems to really prefer to be the assister rather than the shooter.

[Brunodf]

I wonder if the apparent decline in defensive numbers when Diaw is paired with Splitter isn't a function of role assignments. When Splitter is on the floor with Duncan, he will take the defender further away from the basket and Tim will stay closer to the basket for blocks, etc.

When Diaw is on the the floor with Splitter, he is the one taking the defender further away from the basket, and Splitter is the one closest to the basket. But Splitter is not ever going to be the blocker that Tim is, and that number figures largely into the defensive stats. Plus, Splitter is not as good at rebounding as Tim (not bad, mind you, just not as good as Tim), and Diaw is out of position for rebounding because he is so likely to be the guy on the offensive player further away from the basket.

I don't think so, Bonner/Splitter is a good rebounding pair...

[silverblk mystix]

Is the amazing speed with which Lord Poppycock gave these two quantity minutes together just another feather in Hall of Fame Coach of Year CIA Pops NBA basketabull acumen?

Or did Holt or Holt reps finally order Popped to play the tandem? :rollin


You just don't understand the mind of a genius coach do you? Not just anyone can be a hall of famer - and not just anyone would think of playing the only two 7 footers you have on your team - together. At the same time. On the court. In a game where height is a major advantage.

Genius. I tell you.


Don't hate-appreciate!

[TheSkeptic]

I don't think so, Bonner/Splitter is a good rebounding pair...

I'm wondering if maybe the perimeter players aren't also part of the reason for this? Diaw's guarding the player that's further away from the basket and Splitter's playing help defense. Most of the guards off the bench can't defend anybody so Tiago steps out to stop the penetration. This takes both Diaw and Tiago away from the basket when the shot goes up. Something like that?

Looking at the 5-man line-ups on BR, Diaw-Splitter-Jax-Neal-Gino is one of our better rebounding line-ups (sample size is hilariously small). Whereas Diaw-Green-KL-Parker-Splitter is the worst Diaw/Splitter line-up on the glass. Besides the double digit TRB% deficit, what also appears to hurt this line-up is turnovers and fouls. It's above the team average in steals, but the offense also appears to sputter a bit with this group. Lower FGA, less FTs, only outscoring opponents by 3.5. In net offense it's a full 5 points below the team average in the 48 minutes it has played. I'm pretty comfortable saying that the other team's second chance points are probably big reason for that and since this is the starting line-up without Duncan the quality of the opponent and the gap between Duncan and Diaw could be playing into this as well.

The second worst rebounding line-up with the Diaw/Splitter pairing is De Colo-Diaw-Green-Manu-Splitter. Similar problems as the first in that this group turns the ball over and fouls at a similar rate. It also gets killed on the boards but less so than the Diaw-Green-KL-Parker-Splitter group. What saves it is that it performs on offense. Right now it's outscoring opponents by 12.5 pts in the 31 minutes it's seen the floor.

If it's correct that Green's defense is overrated around here, it could come down to a combination of Green not providing enough resistance, Splitter and Diaw not crashing the glass, and maybe Diaw not doing enough on offense to keep the pairing afloat.

[TDMVPDPOY]

how come theres no rating for baynes paired with gary neal....

[Strategic]

how come theres no rating for baynes paired with gary neal....


Yup, and what about Blair's pairing with Pop compared to Bud?

[Brunodf]

I'm wondering if maybe the perimeter players aren't also part of the reason for this? Diaw's guarding the player that's further away from the basket and Splitter's playing help defense. Most of the guards off the bench can't defend anybody so Tiago steps out to stop the penetration. This takes both Diaw and Tiago away from the basket when the shot goes up. Something like that?

Looking at the 5-man line-ups on BR, Diaw-Splitter-Jax-Neal-Gino is one of our better rebounding line-ups (sample size is hilariously small). Whereas Diaw-Green-KL-Parker-Splitter is the worst Diaw/Splitter line-up on the glass. Besides the double digit TRB% deficit, what also appears to hurt this line-up is turnovers and fouls. It's above the team average in steals, but the offense also appears to sputter a bit with this group. Lower FGA, less FTs, only outscoring opponents by 3.5. In net offense it's a full 5 points below the team average in the 48 minutes it has played. I'm pretty comfortable saying that the other team's second chance points are probably big reason for that and since this is the starting line-up without Duncan the quality of the opponent and the gap between Duncan and Diaw could be playing into this as well.

The second worst rebounding line-up with the Diaw/Splitter pairing is De Colo-Diaw-Green-Manu-Splitter. Similar problems as the first in that this group turns the ball over and fouls at a similar rate. It also gets killed on the boards but less so than the Diaw-Green-KL-Parker-Splitter group. What saves it is that it performs on offense. Right now it's outscoring opponents by 12.5 pts in the 31 minutes it's seen the floor.

If it's correct that Green's defense is overrated around here, it could come down to a combination of Green not providing enough resistance, Splitter and Diaw not crashing the glass, and maybe Diaw not doing enough on offense to keep the pairing afloat.

Good point... I would like to see Manu/Kawhi/Jack/Diaw/Splitter lineup...

[Vito]

if you you look at http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/d/duncati01.html you'll see that Duncan's stats differs from tables from first post. At Reference Timmy has 109 OffКеп and 94 DefRtg. But at Timvp tables Timmy has 110 and 100! I don't understand how it can be.

[Boomersgold]

The facts do not support this.

Yes, yes, they do. Did you read timvp's analysis.....?

[Dr. Robert Lee]

Yes, yes, they do. Did you read timvp's analysis.....?
No.

[Boomersgold]

No.

Then read the analysis! lol

[Dr. Robert Lee]

Then read the analysis, buddy.
No.

You are just an Australian homer. That's okay. Your choice. :)

[Boomersgold]

No.

You are just an Australian homer. That's okay. Your choice. :)




http://www.spurstalk.com/jan28pp1.png

Mills-Manu Point Differential per 100 Possessions: 29
De Colo-Manu Point Differential per 100 Possessions: 12.7

http://www.spurstalk.com/jan28pp2.png
Point Scored per 100 Possessions:

Patty-Manu: 120.5
De Colo-Manu: 109


http://www.spurstalk.com/jan28pp3.png

Point allowed per 100 Possession:
Patty-Manu: 91.6
De Colo-Manu: 96.3


-The seventh best differential on the team belongs to Patrick Mills at +7.2. That number is driven by the fact that the Spurs have been outstanding when Mills is paired with either Parker or Ginobili. And since the sample size is nearly 190 minutes, it’s getting more and more difficult to overlook. If one were to pick a backup point guard just looking at these numbers, the obvious choice would be Mills. He has been great with Ginobili and Jackson, the key perimeter plays off the bench. And while his defense has been iffy (when, that is, he’s not playing with Ginobili or Jackson), his offense is the best of any guard on the team outside of Parker. It’s probably worth giving Mills more minutes to see if these trends hold up.



I know that you're a huge De Colo fan, as huge as I am a Patty Mills fan, so I can understand why you prefer De Colo over Mills. =)

But from timvp's analysis, it's clear that Patty Mills does much better than De Colo when played with Manu(I'm not saying that Patty Mills is the better "point guard"). A Patty-Manu pairing has better statistics than a NDC-Manu across all three of the categories provided in timvp's analysis (Point Differential per 100 Possessions, Point Scored per 100 Possessions, Point allowed per 100 Possession).

[Dr. Robert Lee]

Ah, perhaps, perhaps. I am a NANDO homer. I am a NEAL HATER. So long as Neal isn't playing PG, I will be pleased. I'm not a huge Patty fan, but he's better than Hero Ball at PG.

I do like your posts, though, in all seriousness.

[Boomersgold]

Ah, perhaps, perhaps. I am a NANDO homer. I am a NEAL HATER. So long as Neal isn't playing PG, I will be pleased. I'm not a huge Patty fan, but he's better than Hero Ball at PG.

I do like your posts, though, in all seriousness.

Neal isn't winning many fans over with his play recently (Hero ball's great only when it works). I'd even rather see Cojo have a chance at winning the backup spot than have Neal back at point guard.

[RuffnReadyOzStyle]

Thanks for the analysis timvp, and nice detailed response by Bruno. Great thread by all involved! :tu

Also, good points about how it might be improved in the future by temujin.

[angelbelow]

Great to see Tiago pairing so well with the starters.

[Dr. Robert Lee]

GOD DAMN IT GARY NEAL SUX