Player Pairs Analysis - Jan. 28, 2013

[timvp]

These Player Pairs statistics take a look at how the Spurs perform when various possible tandems are on the court at the same time. The numbers in the cells correspond to the tandem comprised of the name in the column and the name in the row. For example, as you can see below, the Spurs outscore their opponents by 12.5 points per 100 possessions when Duncan is on the court with Parker.

The cells are color coded based on the following rules:

Light Green - The player in the column improved the impact of the player in the row.
Dark Green - The player in the column improved the impact of the player in the row by a significant* amount.
Light Red - The player in the column worsened the impact of the player in the row.
Dark Red - The player in the column worsened the impact of the player in the row by a significant* amount.
Light Blue - The player's impact when he's on the court under any cir stance.
Dark Blue - The tandem hasn't yet ac ulated enough minutes together.
* - 25% in the first chart, 2.5% in the two subsequent charts








-Tim Duncan’s numbers are extremely solid across the board. He’s second on the team in differential (+10.7) and his offensive numbers are particularly great. Duncan makes everyone better on offense other than Leonard -- and that’s only a slight drop. Defensively, at first glance his numbers may look mildly disappointing. However, it’s important to note how well Duncan is defensively when paired with Parker. That’s important because: 1) Duncan will be on the court almost exclusively with Parker when it matters most 2) Duncan’s weakness defensively is defending the pick-and-roll and while Parker is good to very good at defending pick-and-rolls, the backup point guards are either bad or really bad at it.

-Tony Parker’s numbers are also very strong. Third best differential (+10.6) -- only a shade behind Duncan. His defensive numbers are stout, especially when paired with the players he plays with most. Offensively, I don’t see anything to worry about. Overall, Parker’s numbers endorse what our eyes are telling us in that he’s having a great season.

-Toping the differential, like usual, is Manu Ginobili (+12.4). Unfortunately, I’m actually a little worried about what I see when taking a closer look. His defensive number is great and the best on the team … but it also looks fluky. His numbers with some of the bench players are unsustainably low (most notably Bonner, Blair and Mills). As the season progresses, Ginobili’s defensive number is very likely going to creep up toward 100 (last year, for example, he was north of 105). The reason why he usually dominates the player pairings is because his offensive numbers are so good. This year, he’s only fifth on the team. Considering Ginobili topped the entire NBA last season at 120.7, dropping more than ten points is somewhat worrisome. Additionally, Parker and Splitter being better on offense without him is just … strange. Let’s hope Ginobili’s offensive numbers look better as the season progresses. Six weeks ago (the last time I did player pairs) Ginobili was the best offensively so perhaps this is just a midseason swoon.

-Tiago Splitter has the fourth best differential (+10.4) and a very green differential chart. That’s another sign that the Brazilian is having just a damn great season. He’s played plenty with the starters and plenty with the bench, so it’s safe to say there isn’t much luck involved -- he's just at the top of his game.

-The fact that Splitter and Duncan are doing so well together almost brings a tear to my eye. They’re great offensively together and absolutely devastating defensively. Add in the fact that they play together almost exclusively against the other team’s starters -- and that pairing may be the brightest spot of the entire season thus far.

-On the other end of the spectrum, Splitter with Diaw just doesn’t seem to be working. In theory, it should work. In the real world, it doesn’t. Diaw is the only player who does worse with Splitter on the court. It’s a bad defensive pairing, which is somewhat predictable based on observations, but the fact that it’s also subpar offensively makes me wonder if it’s ever going to work.

-Speaking of Boris Diaw, he sure does have a lot of red. Offensively, he does well as long as he has a member of the Big 3 on the court with him. If he doesn’t, well, it gets ugly fast. Defense is the bigger concern. These numbers say he’s the worst defensive big on the team -- and it’s not even very close. Everyone but Green is worse defensively with him on the court, and even Green is just barely better. If we broke it down further, I’d bet the issue is a lack of defensive rebounding when Diaw is on the court. Whatever it is, the Frenchman needs to figure it out because he hasn’t gotten the job done in the first half of the season … really on either end.

-As long as I’m speaking negatively, let’s bring in Danny Green. Wow. I’ve called him out at times for having horrific defensive games (Kobe Bryant’s first game against him comes to mind, as does his last outing against Jared Dudley). But I find it surprising that he grades out as the absolute worst defender on the team. Considering that he plays most of his minutes next to four above average defenders in Duncan, Splitter, Leonard and Parker, that’s just not acceptable. At all. Last year, he had great defensive numbers in the regular season and the playoffs -- so I’m not sure what happening. Offensively, Green is fine; maybe even better than expected given his streakiness.

-Thinking more about Green’s D numbers, one could point to Ginobili’s fluky great D numbers and say Green’s D could just be fluky in the other direction. I don’t really buy that though because he’s even dragging down the team’s best defenders and some of his numbers are putrid. The only sliver of light I see is his number next to Leonard (98.3). We all saw how horrible Green was when he was shoehorned into playing small forward. Maybe he just really, really needs a strong defensive small forward next to him in order to hide his deficiencies. Whatever the issue, we should keep an eye on it going forward.

-I’m excited about Kawhi Leonard’s numbers for the most part. Defensively, he’s been a beast -- especially next to Duncan and Parker. And the best part of that is that it’s mostly coming against starters. It’s unusual for young players to put up this great of defensive numbers … so this bodes well for his future. As for his offense, it’s a mixed bag. For whatever reason, he dominates when playing with bench players. His dragging down of the Big 3 is a troubling but it should correct itself when he finds his offensive niche.

-One number that I can’t help to laugh at is the pairing of Leonard and Ginobili. There’s just no way that offensive number (104.1) is going to stay so low. Those two players fit together too well for it not to get much better. In fact, last season Leonard and Ginobili’s offensive number was 124.1 -- exactly 20 points higher and the second best mark on the entire team last year. Just a matter of time …

-Another number that stands out is Leonard with Diaw. This pairing is by far Diaw’s best defensive number, which fits with the hypothesis that Diaw’s lack of rebounding hurts his D -- but when he’s played with Leonard, an elite defensive rebounder for a small forward, that weakness is mitigated.

-Truthfully, I’m amazed at Stephen Jackson’s numbers. Subjectively, it looks like he’s struggling. Apparently, though, his struggles aren’t hurting the team. On the contrary, Jackson has the fifth highest differential (+9.2). Offensively, he does really damn well with everyone who’s not deep on the bench. His defense is all over the map pairings-wise but his overall defensive number (101.3) is fine for a player who still looks to be working his way back into shape. If Jackson can straighten out his shooting and improve his D a bit, these numbers say he could be quite a force … and that’s really surprising since six weeks ago his differential was hovering around zero.

-The next highest differential belongs to Matt Bonner. While +8.8 is solid for most players, this is The King of the Plus/Minus we are talking about. Annually, Bonner has always been near the very top -- both on the Spurs and in the league. To be sixth on his own team is underwhelming for his standards. Then again, if we want to view it through rose colored glasses (and, hey, why not?), we can point out that Bonner’s best numbers are when he’s playing next to the Big 3 and Splitter. Perhaps he’s still The King and the only thing that has changed is he’s playing more garbage minutes with the deep bench. I haven’t investigated that premise but it seems to fit.

-Bonner with Ginobili is another pairing that will improve on offense. Last season, that duo was the best offensive pairing in the whole league at 128.4 -- a simply mind-boggling stat that is probably one of the best showings ever. This year, they are at a pedestrian 104. While Bonner and Ginobili won’t reach last season’s mark, there’s no way it’s going to stay this low.

(-Considering that I’ve now pointed out two Ginobili pairings that are bound to improve offensively, I’m starting to think that Ginobili’s numbers are just overall fluky for whatever mystical reasons. Going forward, I’d bet his defensive numbers come back to earth but that his offensive numbers get much better.)

-The seventh best differential on the team belongs to Patrick Mills at +7.2. That number is driven by the fact that the Spurs have been outstanding when Mills is paired with either Parker or Ginobili. And since the sample size is nearly 190 minutes, it’s getting more and more difficult to overlook. If one were to pick a backup point guard just looking at these numbers, the obvious choice would be Mills. He has been great with Ginobili and Jackson, the key perimeter plays off the bench. And while his defense has been iffy (when, that is, he’s not playing with Ginobili or Jackson), his offense is the best of any guard on the team outside of Parker. It’s probably worth giving Mills more minutes to see if these trends hold up.

-DeJuan Blair actually appears to have some value … as long as you keep him away from the starting lineup. Play him with Ginobili against the opposing bench and he should do okay. Defensively, he’s actually been pretty darn good. Is that legit or a statistical anomaly? It’s probably been a little bit of both. While Blair has been more attentive on D this season, I find it hard to believe that Blair with Bonner is suddenly a strong defensive pairing. Considering that Blair is usually horrible when it comes to these pairings, it’s good to see that he has improved a bit. Perhaps that’s due to him playing more against bench players rather than starters this year, which makes sense.

-Coming in second to last in differential is Gary Neal at +5.3. He’s third worst offensively and fourth worst defensively, so it’s difficult to find a silver lining here. The fact the Big 3 each struggles to deal with Neal’s presence on the court is damning. Subjectively, I think he’s good depth to have around. In actuality, these numbers say the Spurs wouldn’t miss him if they opt to trade him.

-Last but maybe not least is Nando De Colo. It’s important to note that rookies universally struggle when looking at their production in this way, especially in the first half of their rookie season. Leonard, for example, had the worst numbers on the team at this time last year. Anthony Davis, the No. 1 pick of the 2012 NBA Draft, is sitting at -8.1 … so, yeah, take De Colo’s +1.4 with a grain of salt. Through the carnage, it’s notable that De Colo has been fine when paired with Ginobili. That gives some hope that he may yet be the answer at backup PG.

[Chinook]

Yeah, I was looking at these numbers the other day. It's clear Green is not having the same impact that he had last season. I can't really explain why, except maybe teams know how to attack him more than they did last year. I still think his numbers with Leonard show that he is still fine as a shooting-guard, but he certainly seems to have progressed. Anti-Green folk will have the numbers on their sides at least until your next player pairs post comes out. Let's all hope he gets back to form by then.

[Fabbs]

Do we need to take acid to see all the colors?
Or do i need to install some latest flash gizmo?

You must have just juiced it because they appeared a bit moreso.
Let me try it after another toke.

[Cane]

Yea not feeling the Easter Egg pastel colors but god damn interesting and great stuff nonetheless! Muchas gracias

[dylankerouac]

So glad you did this, was looking forward to the updated version.

Cheers.

[Chinook]

Subjectively, I don't think the Spurs are playing as well as they were at the end of last season. They've had some dominant games, but they seem to be trying to find their way still. I don't really know what's holding back. Maybe not enough injury-free games so far?

[Paranoid Pop]

Regarding Splitter Diaw, it just can't work and it's on both of them, it's the reason why Baynes should gets significant minutes ASAP next to Boris.

Regarding Green, like Chinook may point out, he has played too many minutes at SF where he sucks more than anyone that play the position on the roster probably, maybe even Bonner could do better at SF. It's worrying because it tells me that Pop is incredibly in love with him and we know that when he falls in love with a scrub there's nothing to be done about it.

Mills numbers next to TP and Manu make a compelling case for him getting more minutes, if there was a 3 man guards rotation in the PO, I'd think of De Colo as the third guy first but Mills may deserve an extended look. He should work like a madman on his handles, if he can bring the ball up the court vs pressure, there's no reason to deny him backup PG.

[dylankerouac]

Yeah, I was looking at these numbers the other day. It's clear Green is not having the same impact that he had last season. I can't really explain why, except maybe teams know how to attack him more than they did last year. I still think his numbers with Leonard show that he is still fine as a shooting-guard, but he certainly seems to have progressed. Anti-Green folk will have the numbers on their sides at least until your next player pairs post comes out. Let's all hope he gets back to form by then.

Green improving his finishing ability will improve his offensive numbers and will help out overall, seems like he misses a chip shot or two every game, at the very least. I love Green, his offense needs improvement but that typically will improve with more experience and the dude is still NBA-young. He already brings other things to the table that are valuable for this team.

[Paranoid Pop]

Also I'd like to see more Boris at SF, he looks lighter on his feet and I feel like it could greatly improve his numbers on D, I liked what I saw vs Lebron and Pierce. Then again they'd have to trade SJax, not sure what you can get with SJax+Blair...

[playblair]

dejuan has always been a legit defender ........... people blame blair 4 dices failures (scola gasol) .......... dejuan has great hands 4 a big ...........

blair haters will never admit that blair has been a legit defender who gives (griffin thunder dirk) problems .........

[Fabbs]

-The fact that Splitter and Duncan are doing so well together almost brings a tear to my eye. They’re great offensively together and absolutely devastating defensively. Add in the fact that they play together almost exclusively against the other team’s starters -- and that pairing may be the brightest spot of the entire season thus far.

Is the amazing speed with which Lord Poppy gave these two quan y minutes together just another feather in Hall of Fame Coach of Year CIA Pops NBA basketabull a en?

Or did Holt or Holt reps finally order Popped to play the tandem?

[Cry Havoc]

Is the amazing speed with which Lord Poppy gave these two quan y minutes together just another feather in Hall of Fame Coach of Year CIA Pops NBA basketabull a en?

Or did Holt or Holt reps finally order Popped to play the tandem?

Fabbs bads as usual.

[Paranoid Pop]

Something that could be interesting is to only use the two colors for positive and negative impact on the other player average, and to use the nuances to tell about the size of the sample, the darker the color, the bigger/more telling the sample size...

[elemento]

Very nice reading tim

I thought Paranoid would go HAM in this thread but so far he has been nice to Danny, which is funny.

TP/Nando stands out to me. Couldn't tell they played so bad together.

[Spurs Brazil]

Thanks timvp

Great read

[Paranoid Pop]

Very nice reading tim

I thought Paranoid would go HAM in this thread and so has he has been nice to Danny, which is funny.

TP/Nando stands out to me. Couldn't tell they played so bad together.

Well my main problem is that Boris has pretty bad numbers as well...

[spurraider21]

Best defensive duo is apparently Splitter-Blair and best offensive duo is Manu-Mills... So clearly we need a lineup with all 4 of them for guaranteed championships lol

[RodNIc91]

I dont know if you read my commentary the other day but I really appreaciate that you posted this midseason trends. Thanks Timvp!

[Brunodf]

I love those stats, they show what i see:
Neal is bad for the team on both ends
Splitter/Duncan pairing works
Leonard is a great player and should get more minutes
Mills should be the backup PG
Green defense is overrated.

Thanks Timvp

[Chinook]

Green improving his finishing ability will improve his offensive numbers and will help out overall, seems like he misses a chip shot or two every game, at the very least. I love Green, his offense needs improvement but that typically will improve with more experience and the dude is still NBA-young. He already brings other things to the table that are valuable for this team.

Yeah, finishing would help his offensive numbers. But that's not his biggest problem. The fact is last year he was a great rebounder for his position, and he had one of the highest defensive ratings on the team. He's struggling in those areas. He'd have to get significantly better on offense to justify playing him if he can't bring it defensively.

[dylankerouac]

Yeah, finishing would help his offensive numbers. But that's not his biggest problem. The fact is last year he was a great rebounder for his position, and he had one of the highest defensive ratings on the team. He's struggling in those areas. He'd have to get significantly better on offense to justify playing him if he can't bring it defensively.

Right, I just now finished looking at Green's numbers and surprised to find that he did better offensively than defensively. While the numbers show a deficiency on the defensive end I can't complain about what we see on the court since we have seen him make some late game steals and defensive plays in crunch time. Actually come to think of it, it would be nice if there was a clutch defense stat.

[Paranoid Pop]

In the point differential tab, isn't Splitter impact on Sjax negative thus shouldn't it be colored in red, sorry if I completely misunderstood the way the tab are colored...

[dylankerouac]

-DeJuan Blair actually appears to have some value … as long as you keep him away from the starting lineup. Play him with Ginobili against the opposing bench and he should do okay. Defensively, he’s actually been pretty darn good. Is that legit or a statistical anomaly? It’s probably been a little bit of both. While Blair has been more attentive on D this season, I find it hard to believe that Blair with Bonner is suddenly a strong defensive pairing. Considering that Blair is usually horrible when it comes to these pairings, it’s good to see that he has improved a bit. Perhaps that’s due to him playing more against bench players rather than starters this year, which makes sense.

Actually, your player pair analysis in December showed Blair had a more positive presence on the defensive end as well. I remember thinking then what it was that is hurting his results on the offensive end. I wonder if it's just a matter of him needing to expand his offensive game, assuming he has many years left on the court which I'm sure many would argue against. Or perhaps its his rebounding efficiency. I'm really just taking stabs in the dark here.

[Fabbs]

Fabbs bads as usual.

Wonder if Multimoderator or Bruno or admin could get a "Slurping Pop" icon for you PollyAnna Poppers?

[objective]

good work.

The fact that Splitter and Duncan are doing so well together almost brings a tear to my eye. They’re great offensively together and absolutely devastating defensively. Add in the fact that they play together almost exclusively against the other team’s starters -- and that pairing may be the brightest spot of the entire season thus far.

Took long enough for Pop and everyone else to finally recognize that playing Splitter with Duncan is a no-brainer. I still remember vividly the whole, "You can't play Duncan with Splitter! Look at the 5 minutes they played together after Splitter spent 2 weeks getting DNPs! The numbers don't workz!" Wasting two full years of Duncan and Manu's final years is not forgivable.

It's enough to make heads explode like Scanners.

-As long as I’m speaking negatively, let’s bring in Danny Green. Wow. I’ve called him out at times for having horrific defensive games (Kobe Bryant’s first game against him comes to mind, as does his last outing against Jared Dudley). But I find it surprising that he grades out as the absolute worst defender on the team. Considering that he plays most of his minutes next to four above average defenders in Duncan, Splitter, Leonard and Parker, that’s just not acceptable. At all. Last year, he had great defensive numbers in the regular season and the playoffs -- so I’m not sure what happening. Offensively, Green is fine; maybe even better than expected given his streakiness.

The numbers don't surprise me at all because Green is a horribly overrated defender. I have to shake my head at all the posters who continually defend him because he's a '3 and D' player while not recognizing that his D is not good enough. He is carried by the stars on this team and has snookered everyone. If Hairston was given the chances Green has and had more time to work on his three point shot with Chip, Spurs would be better off.

Green is only a useful defender in isos against smaller players like points. He is bad off the ball, always losing his man. He is not good in the pick and roll. He will lose the Spurs a playoff game with his defense.