Seventyniner
03-18-2013, 04:11 PM
I had planned to do my followup for this post:
http://www.spurstalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=208236
after 66 games, which was before Saturday's "moral defeat" against the Cavs. This is because last season had 66 games, so I thought it would be a good time to do comparisons. Thus, here is a disclaimer: all stats in this post are as of the Spurs' 66th game, last Thursday's 92-91 win over Dallas.
I put an explanation of many of these terms in the first post, so refer back to it if necessary. I also replaced New York with Denver. It seems silly to include data on any East team other than Miami.
OVERALL STATS
(league rank in parentheses)
TEAM
Year
MOV
SOS
SRS
ORtg
DRtg
Rtg diff
Pace
SA
2013
8.03 (2)
-0.15 (18)
7.88 (2)
109.4 (7)
101.0 (3)
8.4 (2)
94.2 (7)
OC
2013
9.55 (1)
-0.08 (17)
9.46 (1)
112.9 (1)
102.8 (7)
10.1 (1)
93.8 (8)
LAC
2013
6.50 (4)
0.04 (15)
6.54 (4)
110.1 (5)
103.0 (8)
7.1 (4)
91.5 (16)
MEM
2013
4.22 (7)
0.13 (12)
4.35 (6)
104.9 (18)
100.2 (2)
4.7 (7)
88.7 (28)
DEN
2013
4.91 (5)
0.22 (10)
5.13 (5)
110.2 (4)
105.0 (12)
5.2 (5)
95.0 (2)
LAL
2013
1.25 (10)
0.45 (5)
1.70 (10)
107.7 (8)
106.4 (19)
1.3 (10)
94.7 (3)
MIA
2013
7.50 (3)
-0.33 (23)
7.17 (3)
112.5 (2)
104.3 (10)
8.2 (3)
90.7 (22)
Average
2013
0
0
0
105.6
105.6
0
92.0
SA
2012
7.17 (2)
0.11 (15)
7.28 (2)
110.9 (1)
103.2 (10)
7.7 (2)
92.9 (7)
OC
2012
6.12 (3)
0.32 (11)
6.44 (3)
109.8 (2)
103.2 (10)
6.6 (3)
93.0 (6)
LAC
2012
2.56 (10)
2.56 (14)
2.82 (7)
108.5 (4)
105.7 (18)
2.8 (10)
89.2 (26)
MEM
2012
2.02 (12)
0.42 (7)
2.43 (10)
104.0 (19)
101.8 (7)
2.2 (12)
90.8 (18)
LAL
2012
1.42 (13)
0.54 (5)
1.96 (13)
106.0 (10)
104.4 (13)
1.6 (13)
90.5 (20)
MIA
2012
5.98 (4)
-0.27 (19)
5.72 (4)
106.6 (8)
100.2 (4)
6.4 (4)
91.2 (15)
CHI
2012
8.18 (1)
-0.76 (28)
7.43 (1)
107.4 (5)
98.3 (2)
9.1 (1)
89.1 (28)
Average
2012
0
0
0
104.6
104.6
0
91.3
Observations (since the last post)
The Nuggets have vastly improved over the course of the season, surprising nobody that actually paid attention to their brutal early schedule.
The Spurs have fallen off slightly in the last 25 games but are still having an excellent season.
Even with a 22-game (and counting) winning streak since the last post, the Heat's DRtg has only improved by 0.5. Their offense going from excellent to insane is the main driver behind all those wins.
By contrast, the Lakers have gained ground in the standings but have a lower margin of victory and Rtg diff (ORtg - DRtg) than at the 41-game mark.
Memphis is still who we thought they were: a slow-it-down grind-it-out defensive juggernaut. The Rudy Gay trade played right into their hands. A matchup between them and the Nuggets would be world-class entertainment, though the Clippers would have to climb back to #3 to make it happen.
Speaking of the Clippers, Chris Paul's missed time accounts for much of their dropoff. I still don't trust Vinny Del Negro to win a high-pressure playoff series, but on paper they're still a better team than either Denver or Memphis.
FOUR FACTORS
(league rank in parentheses)
TEAM
Year
O eFG%
D eFG%
eFG% diff
O TOV%
D TOV%
TOV% diff
ORB%
DRB%
Total RB%
O FT/FGA
D FT/FGA
FT/FGA diff
SA
2013
.538 (2)
.476 (4)
.062 (1)
13.9 (16)
13.9 (13)
0.0 (15)
20.3 (29)
74.6 (6)
94.9 (29)
.207 (15)
.181 (3)
.026 (7)
OC
2013
.532 (3)
.472 (3)
.060 (2)
14.7 (29)
13.8 (14)
-0.9 (20)
26.6 (15)
73.5 (16)
100.1 (16)
.286 (1)
.201 (12)
.085 (1)
LAC
2013
.523 (5)
.491 (12)
.032 (4)
14.0 (21)
15.8 (1)
1.8 (2)
28.9 (7)
73.1 (20)
102.0 (8)
.205 (17)
.229 (27)
-.024 (25)
MEM
2013
.472 (26)
.479 (7)
-.007 (17)
13.7 (11)
15.5 (2)
1.8 (3)
31.8 (1)
74.3 (8)
106.1 (1)
.197 (22)
.203 (16)
-.006 (15)
DEN
2013
.517 (6)
.492 (13)
.025 (6)
13.6 (9)
14.9 (8)
0.7 (9)
31.2 (2)
72.1 (27)
103.3 (4)
.210 (11)
.199 (10)
.011 (9)
LAL
2013
.513 (8)
.496 (16)
.017 (10)
13.9 (16)
12.1 (29)
-1.8 (29)
27.0 (13)
74.0 (12)
101.0 (11)
.234 (2)
.166 (1)
.068 (2)
MIA
2013
.546 (1)
.489 (10)
.057 (3)
13.2 (8)
14.8 (3)
1.6 (5)
22.6 (26)
73.3 (18)
95.9 (27)
.223 (7)
.210 (21)
.013 (8)
Average
2013
.495
.495
0
13.8
13.8
0
26.6
73.4
100
.204
.204
0
SA
2012
.528 (1)
.489 (15)
.039 (4)
12.8 (3)
12.9 (24)
0.1 (17)
25.1 (24)
76.0 (1)
101.1 (10)
.195 (19)
.168 (2)
.027 (7)
OC
2012
.516 (2)
.465 (3)
.051 (1)
15.3 (30)
13.0 (23)
-2.3 (29)
27.8 (10)
72.1 (23)
99.9 (18)
.269 (1)
.207 (16)
.062 (2)
LAC
2012
.502 (7)
.492 (20)
.010 (10)
12.7 (2)
14.2 (8)
1.5 (4)
29.5 (4)
73.2 (14)
102.7 (4)
.195 (19)
.245 (29)
-.050 (29)
MEM
2012
.473 (24)
.485 (12)
-.012 (21)
13.6 (15)
16.3 (1)
2.7 (1)
29.8 (3)
72.7 (19)
102.5 (5)
.211 (10)
.227 (25)
-.016 (21)
LAL
2012
.491 (13)
.476 (6)
.015 (9)
14.2 (20)
10.7 (30)
-3.5 (30)
29.1 (6)
74.8 (5)
103.9 (3)
.226 (8)
.158 (1)
.068 (1)
MIA
2012
.505 (5)
.479 (8)
.026 (5)
14.5 (24)
15.8 (3)
1.3 (5)
26.6 (18)
73.9 (10)
100.5 (15)
.238 (4)
.200 (12)
.038 (5)
CHI
2012
.490 (14)
.450 (1)
.040 (3)
13.2 (8)
12.8 (26)
-0.4 (20)
32.6 (1)
74.3 (8)
106.9 (1)
.184 (26)
.175 (3)
.009 (10)
Average
2012
.487
.487
0
13.8
13.8
0
27.0
73.0
100
.208
.208
0
Observations (since the last post)
The Spurs have slightly worse shooting numbers on both ends, and the offensive rebounding continues to sink into the abyss, but a few bright spots stand out: the turnover margin is now even and the FT/FGA numbers are slightly better on both ends.
While the Spurs' D eFG% has gone from .474 to .476 in the last 25 games, the league average has gone from .491 to .495, so they're even farther above average than before. Other leaguewide trends include there being slightly more turnovers per game, slightly fewer offensive rebounds, and slightly fewer FT/FGA. In fact, the league average of .204 FT/FGA is one of the lowest numbers I've ever seen. Averages in the .230 to .260 range have not been uncommon, even recently.
Speaking of FT/FGA, the Thunder being 3 standard deviations above the mean on O FT/FGA is astounding. They trade the player who takes the most FT per game away and keep taking free throws at a very high rate.
Rant over, at least for this post
It almost seemed like a typo me, but the Lakers' D TOV% really did go from 14.0% 25 games ago to 12.1% now. That comes out to 10.94% over the last 25 games, which would be last in the league by a large margin.
One last thing that I thought of after the first post. Here is a table showing how many standard deviations above or below the mean the Spurs are in the different categories, with positive numbers meaning above the mean (better than average).
Team
MOV
SOS
SRS
ORtg
DRtg
Rtg diff
Pace
O eFG%
D eFG%
eFG% diff
O TOV%
D TOV%
TOV% diff
ORB%
DRB%
Total RB%
O FT/FGA
D FT/FGA
FT/FGA diff
2013 Spurs
1.72
-0.38
1.72
1.06
1.47
1.67
1.06
1.83
1.13
1.99
-0.14
0.10
0
-2.07
0.92
-1.68
0.11
1.26
0.78
Team X
2.18
-0.23
2.21
1.02
2.05
2.21
-0.83
1.54
1.62
2.12
0.65
-0.27
0.33
-1.23
1.37
-0.03
-0.46
1.69
1.19
Later on I'll post what team X is, but the profiles are somewhat similar.
http://www.spurstalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=208236
after 66 games, which was before Saturday's "moral defeat" against the Cavs. This is because last season had 66 games, so I thought it would be a good time to do comparisons. Thus, here is a disclaimer: all stats in this post are as of the Spurs' 66th game, last Thursday's 92-91 win over Dallas.
I put an explanation of many of these terms in the first post, so refer back to it if necessary. I also replaced New York with Denver. It seems silly to include data on any East team other than Miami.
OVERALL STATS
(league rank in parentheses)
TEAM
Year
MOV
SOS
SRS
ORtg
DRtg
Rtg diff
Pace
SA
2013
8.03 (2)
-0.15 (18)
7.88 (2)
109.4 (7)
101.0 (3)
8.4 (2)
94.2 (7)
OC
2013
9.55 (1)
-0.08 (17)
9.46 (1)
112.9 (1)
102.8 (7)
10.1 (1)
93.8 (8)
LAC
2013
6.50 (4)
0.04 (15)
6.54 (4)
110.1 (5)
103.0 (8)
7.1 (4)
91.5 (16)
MEM
2013
4.22 (7)
0.13 (12)
4.35 (6)
104.9 (18)
100.2 (2)
4.7 (7)
88.7 (28)
DEN
2013
4.91 (5)
0.22 (10)
5.13 (5)
110.2 (4)
105.0 (12)
5.2 (5)
95.0 (2)
LAL
2013
1.25 (10)
0.45 (5)
1.70 (10)
107.7 (8)
106.4 (19)
1.3 (10)
94.7 (3)
MIA
2013
7.50 (3)
-0.33 (23)
7.17 (3)
112.5 (2)
104.3 (10)
8.2 (3)
90.7 (22)
Average
2013
0
0
0
105.6
105.6
0
92.0
SA
2012
7.17 (2)
0.11 (15)
7.28 (2)
110.9 (1)
103.2 (10)
7.7 (2)
92.9 (7)
OC
2012
6.12 (3)
0.32 (11)
6.44 (3)
109.8 (2)
103.2 (10)
6.6 (3)
93.0 (6)
LAC
2012
2.56 (10)
2.56 (14)
2.82 (7)
108.5 (4)
105.7 (18)
2.8 (10)
89.2 (26)
MEM
2012
2.02 (12)
0.42 (7)
2.43 (10)
104.0 (19)
101.8 (7)
2.2 (12)
90.8 (18)
LAL
2012
1.42 (13)
0.54 (5)
1.96 (13)
106.0 (10)
104.4 (13)
1.6 (13)
90.5 (20)
MIA
2012
5.98 (4)
-0.27 (19)
5.72 (4)
106.6 (8)
100.2 (4)
6.4 (4)
91.2 (15)
CHI
2012
8.18 (1)
-0.76 (28)
7.43 (1)
107.4 (5)
98.3 (2)
9.1 (1)
89.1 (28)
Average
2012
0
0
0
104.6
104.6
0
91.3
Observations (since the last post)
The Nuggets have vastly improved over the course of the season, surprising nobody that actually paid attention to their brutal early schedule.
The Spurs have fallen off slightly in the last 25 games but are still having an excellent season.
Even with a 22-game (and counting) winning streak since the last post, the Heat's DRtg has only improved by 0.5. Their offense going from excellent to insane is the main driver behind all those wins.
By contrast, the Lakers have gained ground in the standings but have a lower margin of victory and Rtg diff (ORtg - DRtg) than at the 41-game mark.
Memphis is still who we thought they were: a slow-it-down grind-it-out defensive juggernaut. The Rudy Gay trade played right into their hands. A matchup between them and the Nuggets would be world-class entertainment, though the Clippers would have to climb back to #3 to make it happen.
Speaking of the Clippers, Chris Paul's missed time accounts for much of their dropoff. I still don't trust Vinny Del Negro to win a high-pressure playoff series, but on paper they're still a better team than either Denver or Memphis.
FOUR FACTORS
(league rank in parentheses)
TEAM
Year
O eFG%
D eFG%
eFG% diff
O TOV%
D TOV%
TOV% diff
ORB%
DRB%
Total RB%
O FT/FGA
D FT/FGA
FT/FGA diff
SA
2013
.538 (2)
.476 (4)
.062 (1)
13.9 (16)
13.9 (13)
0.0 (15)
20.3 (29)
74.6 (6)
94.9 (29)
.207 (15)
.181 (3)
.026 (7)
OC
2013
.532 (3)
.472 (3)
.060 (2)
14.7 (29)
13.8 (14)
-0.9 (20)
26.6 (15)
73.5 (16)
100.1 (16)
.286 (1)
.201 (12)
.085 (1)
LAC
2013
.523 (5)
.491 (12)
.032 (4)
14.0 (21)
15.8 (1)
1.8 (2)
28.9 (7)
73.1 (20)
102.0 (8)
.205 (17)
.229 (27)
-.024 (25)
MEM
2013
.472 (26)
.479 (7)
-.007 (17)
13.7 (11)
15.5 (2)
1.8 (3)
31.8 (1)
74.3 (8)
106.1 (1)
.197 (22)
.203 (16)
-.006 (15)
DEN
2013
.517 (6)
.492 (13)
.025 (6)
13.6 (9)
14.9 (8)
0.7 (9)
31.2 (2)
72.1 (27)
103.3 (4)
.210 (11)
.199 (10)
.011 (9)
LAL
2013
.513 (8)
.496 (16)
.017 (10)
13.9 (16)
12.1 (29)
-1.8 (29)
27.0 (13)
74.0 (12)
101.0 (11)
.234 (2)
.166 (1)
.068 (2)
MIA
2013
.546 (1)
.489 (10)
.057 (3)
13.2 (8)
14.8 (3)
1.6 (5)
22.6 (26)
73.3 (18)
95.9 (27)
.223 (7)
.210 (21)
.013 (8)
Average
2013
.495
.495
0
13.8
13.8
0
26.6
73.4
100
.204
.204
0
SA
2012
.528 (1)
.489 (15)
.039 (4)
12.8 (3)
12.9 (24)
0.1 (17)
25.1 (24)
76.0 (1)
101.1 (10)
.195 (19)
.168 (2)
.027 (7)
OC
2012
.516 (2)
.465 (3)
.051 (1)
15.3 (30)
13.0 (23)
-2.3 (29)
27.8 (10)
72.1 (23)
99.9 (18)
.269 (1)
.207 (16)
.062 (2)
LAC
2012
.502 (7)
.492 (20)
.010 (10)
12.7 (2)
14.2 (8)
1.5 (4)
29.5 (4)
73.2 (14)
102.7 (4)
.195 (19)
.245 (29)
-.050 (29)
MEM
2012
.473 (24)
.485 (12)
-.012 (21)
13.6 (15)
16.3 (1)
2.7 (1)
29.8 (3)
72.7 (19)
102.5 (5)
.211 (10)
.227 (25)
-.016 (21)
LAL
2012
.491 (13)
.476 (6)
.015 (9)
14.2 (20)
10.7 (30)
-3.5 (30)
29.1 (6)
74.8 (5)
103.9 (3)
.226 (8)
.158 (1)
.068 (1)
MIA
2012
.505 (5)
.479 (8)
.026 (5)
14.5 (24)
15.8 (3)
1.3 (5)
26.6 (18)
73.9 (10)
100.5 (15)
.238 (4)
.200 (12)
.038 (5)
CHI
2012
.490 (14)
.450 (1)
.040 (3)
13.2 (8)
12.8 (26)
-0.4 (20)
32.6 (1)
74.3 (8)
106.9 (1)
.184 (26)
.175 (3)
.009 (10)
Average
2012
.487
.487
0
13.8
13.8
0
27.0
73.0
100
.208
.208
0
Observations (since the last post)
The Spurs have slightly worse shooting numbers on both ends, and the offensive rebounding continues to sink into the abyss, but a few bright spots stand out: the turnover margin is now even and the FT/FGA numbers are slightly better on both ends.
While the Spurs' D eFG% has gone from .474 to .476 in the last 25 games, the league average has gone from .491 to .495, so they're even farther above average than before. Other leaguewide trends include there being slightly more turnovers per game, slightly fewer offensive rebounds, and slightly fewer FT/FGA. In fact, the league average of .204 FT/FGA is one of the lowest numbers I've ever seen. Averages in the .230 to .260 range have not been uncommon, even recently.
Speaking of FT/FGA, the Thunder being 3 standard deviations above the mean on O FT/FGA is astounding. They trade the player who takes the most FT per game away and keep taking free throws at a very high rate.
Rant over, at least for this post
It almost seemed like a typo me, but the Lakers' D TOV% really did go from 14.0% 25 games ago to 12.1% now. That comes out to 10.94% over the last 25 games, which would be last in the league by a large margin.
One last thing that I thought of after the first post. Here is a table showing how many standard deviations above or below the mean the Spurs are in the different categories, with positive numbers meaning above the mean (better than average).
Team
MOV
SOS
SRS
ORtg
DRtg
Rtg diff
Pace
O eFG%
D eFG%
eFG% diff
O TOV%
D TOV%
TOV% diff
ORB%
DRB%
Total RB%
O FT/FGA
D FT/FGA
FT/FGA diff
2013 Spurs
1.72
-0.38
1.72
1.06
1.47
1.67
1.06
1.83
1.13
1.99
-0.14
0.10
0
-2.07
0.92
-1.68
0.11
1.26
0.78
Team X
2.18
-0.23
2.21
1.02
2.05
2.21
-0.83
1.54
1.62
2.12
0.65
-0.27
0.33
-1.23
1.37
-0.03
-0.46
1.69
1.19
Later on I'll post what team X is, but the profiles are somewhat similar.