The stats followup post

[Seventyniner]

I had planned to do my followup for this post:
http://www.spurstalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=208236
after 66 games, which was before Saturday's "moral defeat" against the Cavs. This is because last season had 66 games, so I thought it would be a good time to do comparisons. Thus, here is a disclaimer: all stats in this post are as of the Spurs' 66th game, last Thursday's 92-91 win over Dallas.

I put an explanation of many of these terms in the first post, so refer back to it if necessary. I also replaced New York with Denver. It seems silly to include data on any East team other than Miami.

OVERALL STATS
(league rank in parentheses)

TEAM	Year	MOV	SOS	SRS	ORtg	DRtg	Rtg diff	Pace
SA	2013	8.03 (2)	-0.15 (18)	7.88 (2)	109.4 (7)	101.0 (3)	8.4 (2)	94.2 (7)
OC	2013	9.55 (1)	-0.08 (17)	9.46 (1)	112.9 (1)	102.8 (7)	10.1 (1)	93.8 (8)
LAC	2013	6.50 (4)	0.04 (15)	6.54 (4)	110.1 (5)	103.0 (8)	7.1 (4)	91.5 (16)
MEM	2013	4.22 (7)	0.13 (12)	4.35 (6)	104.9 (18)	100.2 (2)	4.7 (7)	88.7 (28)
DEN	2013	4.91 (5)	0.22 (10)	5.13 (5)	110.2 (4)	105.0 (12)	5.2 (5)	95.0 (2)
LAL	2013	1.25 (10)	0.45 (5)	1.70 (10)	107.7 (8)	106.4 (19)	1.3 (10)	94.7 (3)
MIA	2013	7.50 (3)	-0.33 (23)	7.17 (3)	112.5 (2)	104.3 (10)	8.2 (3)	90.7 (22)
Average	2013	0	0	0	105.6	105.6	0	92.0
SA	2012	7.17 (2)	0.11 (15)	7.28 (2)	110.9 (1)	103.2 (10)	7.7 (2)	92.9 (7)
OC	2012	6.12 (3)	0.32 (11)	6.44 (3)	109.8 (2)	103.2 (10)	6.6 (3)	93.0 (6)
LAC	2012	2.56 (10)	2.56 (14)	2.82 (7)	108.5 (4)	105.7 (18)	2.8 (10)	89.2 (26)
MEM	2012	2.02 (12)	0.42 (7)	2.43 (10)	104.0 (19)	101.8 (7)	2.2 (12)	90.8 (18)
LAL	2012	1.42 (13)	0.54 (5)	1.96 (13)	106.0 (10)	104.4 (13)	1.6 (13)	90.5 (20)
MIA	2012	5.98 (4)	-0.27 (19)	5.72 (4)	106.6 (8)	100.2 (4)	6.4 (4)	91.2 (15)
CHI	2012	8.18 (1)	-0.76 (28)	7.43 (1)	107.4 (5)	98.3 (2)	9.1 (1)	89.1 (28)
Average	2012	0	0	0	104.6	104.6	0	91.3

Observations (since the last post)

• The Nuggets have vastly improved over the course of the season, surprising nobody that actually paid attention to their brutal early schedule.
• The Spurs have fallen off slightly in the last 25 games but are still having an excellent season.
• Even with a 22-game (and counting) winning streak since the last post, the Heat's DRtg has only improved by 0.5. Their offense going from excellent to insane is the main driver behind all those wins.
• By contrast, the Lakers have gained ground in the standings but have a lower margin of victory and Rtg diff (ORtg - DRtg) than at the 41-game mark.
• Memphis is still who we thought they were: a slow-it-down grind-it-out defensive juggernaut. The Rudy Gay trade played right into their hands. A matchup between them and the Nuggets would be world-class entertainment, though the Clippers would have to climb back to #3 to make it happen.
• Speaking of the Clippers, Chris Paul's missed time accounts for much of their dropoff. I still don't trust Vinny Del Negro to win a high-pressure playoff series, but on paper they're still a better team than either Denver or Memphis.

FOUR FACTORS
(league rank in parentheses)

TEAM	Year	O eFG%	D eFG%	eFG% diff	O TOV%	D TOV%	TOV% diff	ORB%	DRB%	Total RB%	O FT/FGA	D FT/FGA	FT/FGA diff
SA	2013	.538 (2)	.476 (4)	.062 (1)	13.9 (16)	13.9 (13)	0.0 (15)	20.3 (29)	74.6 (6)	94.9 (29)	.207 (15)	.181 (3)	.026 (7)
OC	2013	.532 (3)	.472 (3)	.060 (2)	14.7 (29)	13.8 (14)	-0.9 (20)	26.6 (15)	73.5 (16)	100.1 (16)	.286 (1)	.201 (12)	.085 (1)
LAC	2013	.523 (5)	.491 (12)	.032 (4)	14.0 (21)	15.8 (1)	1.8 (2)	28.9 (7)	73.1 (20)	102.0 (8)	.205 (17)	.229 (27)	-.024 (25)
MEM	2013	.472 (26)	.479 (7)	-.007 (17)	13.7 (11)	15.5 (2)	1.8 (3)	31.8 (1)	74.3 (8)	106.1 (1)	.197 (22)	.203 (16)	-.006 (15)
DEN	2013	.517 (6)	.492 (13)	.025 (6)	13.6 (9)	14.9 (8)	0.7 (9)	31.2 (2)	72.1 (27)	103.3 (4)	.210 (11)	.199 (10)	.011 (9)
LAL	2013	.513 (8)	.496 (16)	.017 (10)	13.9 (16)	12.1 (29)	-1.8 (29)	27.0 (13)	74.0 (12)	101.0 (11)	.234 (2)	.166 (1)	.068 (2)
MIA	2013	.546 (1)	.489 (10)	.057 (3)	13.2 (8)	14.8 (3)	1.6 (5)	22.6 (26)	73.3 (18)	95.9 (27)	.223 (7)	.210 (21)	.013 (8)
Average	2013	.495	.495	0	13.8	13.8	0	26.6	73.4	100	.204	.204	0
SA	2012	.528 (1)	.489 (15)	.039 (4)	12.8 (3)	12.9 (24)	0.1 (17)	25.1 (24)	76.0 (1)	101.1 (10)	.195 (19)	.168 (2)	.027 (7)
OC	2012	.516 (2)	.465 (3)	.051 (1)	15.3 (30)	13.0 (23)	-2.3 (29)	27.8 (10)	72.1 (23)	99.9 (18)	.269 (1)	.207 (16)	.062 (2)
LAC	2012	.502 (7)	.492 (20)	.010 (10)	12.7 (2)	14.2 (8)	1.5 (4)	29.5 (4)	73.2 (14)	102.7 (4)	.195 (19)	.245 (29)	-.050 (29)
MEM	2012	.473 (24)	.485 (12)	-.012 (21)	13.6 (15)	16.3 (1)	2.7 (1)	29.8 (3)	72.7 (19)	102.5 (5)	.211 (10)	.227 (25)	-.016 (21)
LAL	2012	.491 (13)	.476 (6)	.015 (9)	14.2 (20)	10.7 (30)	-3.5 (30)	29.1 (6)	74.8 (5)	103.9 (3)	.226 (8)	.158 (1)	.068 (1)
MIA	2012	.505 (5)	.479 (8)	.026 (5)	14.5 (24)	15.8 (3)	1.3 (5)	26.6 (18)	73.9 (10)	100.5 (15)	.238 (4)	.200 (12)	.038 (5)
CHI	2012	.490 (14)	.450 (1)	.040 (3)	13.2 (8)	12.8 (26)	-0.4 (20)	32.6 (1)	74.3 (8)	106.9 (1)	.184 (26)	.175 (3)	.009 (10)
Average	2012	.487	.487	0	13.8	13.8	0	27.0	73.0	100	.208	.208	0

Observations (since the last post)

• The Spurs have slightly worse shooting numbers on both ends, and the offensive rebounding continues to sink into the abyss, but a few bright spots stand out: the turnover margin is now even and the FT/FGA numbers are slightly better on both ends.
• While the Spurs' D eFG% has gone from .474 to .476 in the last 25 games, the league average has gone from .491 to .495, so they're even farther above average than before. Other leaguewide trends include there being slightly more turnovers per game, slightly fewer offensive rebounds, and slightly fewer FT/FGA. In fact, the league average of .204 FT/FGA is one of the lowest numbers I've ever seen. Averages in the .230 to .260 range have not been uncommon, even recently.
• Speaking of FT/FGA, the Thunder being 3 standard deviations above the mean on O FT/FGA is astounding. They trade the player who takes the most FT per game away and keep taking free throws at a very high rate.
• Rant over, at least for this post
• It almost seemed like a typo me, but the Lakers' D TOV% really did go from 14.0% 25 games ago to 12.1% now. That comes out to 10.94% over the last 25 games, which would be last in the league by a large margin.

One last thing that I thought of after the first post. Here is a table showing how many standard deviations above or below the mean the Spurs are in the different categories, with positive numbers meaning above the mean (better than average).

Team	MOV	SOS	SRS	ORtg	DRtg	Rtg diff	Pace	O eFG%	D eFG%	eFG% diff	O TOV%	D TOV%	TOV% diff	ORB%	DRB%	Total RB%	O FT/FGA	D FT/FGA	FT/FGA diff
2013 Spurs	1.72	-0.38	1.72	1.06	1.47	1.67	1.06	1.83	1.13	1.99	-0.14	0.10	0	-2.07	0.92	-1.68	0.11	1.26	0.78
Team X	2.18	-0.23	2.21	1.02	2.05	2.21	-0.83	1.54	1.62	2.12	0.65	-0.27	0.33	-1.23	1.37	-0.03	-0.46	1.69	1.19

Later on I'll post what team X is, but the profiles are somewhat similar.

[Spursfanfromafar]

X- 2006-07 Spurs team?

Excellent post, by the way. Thanks.

[Brazil]

thanks great analysis

[spursfaninla]

thank you, really nice summary.

[elemento]

Very nice 79

I really liked the post about the ORB and transition D correlation (or the lack of) as well

[Seventyniner]

Very nice 79

I really liked the post about the ORB and transition D correlation (or the lack of) as well

Thanks. The ORB vs. transition D thing deserves a deeper analysis and its own thread, so I'll look into it.

I know that Pop and the players have told the media that they prioritize transition D over ORB%, but being more than 2 standard deviations below the mean is really not good. It shouldn't take that level of ignoring ORB% to get good transition D.

[DejuanorwhatDude]

Who's team X?

[Phenomanul]

Being higher than three standard deviations on anything seems rather fishy... That OKC is statistically getting favorable whistles should not be surprising to anyone who saw Game 5 of last year's WCF series...

[Seventyniner]

X- 2006-07 Spurs team?

Was it that obvious?



It's correct btw.

[Seventyniner]

Here's another comparison. Again, the numbers are standard deviations from the mean, with positive being good (better than average).

Team	MOV	SOS	SRS	ORtg	DRtg	Rtg diff	Pace	O eFG%	D eFG%	eFG% diff	O TOV%	D TOV%	TOV% diff	ORB%	DRB%	Total RB%	O FT/FGA	D FT/FGA	FT/FGA diff
X	1.61	-0.85	1.57	1.92	0.42	1.63	-0.63	2.17	0.36	1.83	0.86	1.05	1.23	-1.32	-0.08	-1.35	0.70	-0.33	0.39
Y	1.49	0.22	1.53	1.94	0.42	1.47	0.95	2.23	-0.12	1.38	1.07	-0.80	0.07	-0.73	1.76	0.35	-0.55	1.72	0.82

I know it will be very difficult answer this, but I would like to see what the guesses are.

Both teams were very good in point differential and nearly identical in ORtg and DRtg. Other similarities include awesome shooting, low turnovers on offense, and bad offensive rebounding.

Differences include pace, turnovers forced, defensive rebounding, and the FT/FGA numbers are basically flipped.

[Spursfanfromafar]

Was it that obvious? It's correct btw.

Had a hunch. Checked it up with my own Excel runup of the stats

[Obstructed_View]

Being higher than three standard deviations on anything seems rather fishy... That OKC is statistically getting favorable whistles should not be surprising to anyone who saw Game 5 of last year's WCF series...

What's surprising is that they lose Harden and then skyrocket. Given that and the amazing numbers on both sides by the Lakers, I guess screeching at every whistle pays off. Maybe Timmy should start doing it again. Clearly he's not getting enough technical fouls.

[Phenomanul]

Kevin Martin has historically been pretty good at getting to the stripe himself except I don't buy that his usage rate is anywhere as high as what Harden's was last year.