Heat in 5: My Reasoning

[DPG21920]

This is one of the all time ill-timed meltdowns from timvp I have ever seen. Spurs on one of the most epic runs with an awesome team chemistry & with MIA looking vulnerable. :td all the way. Respect dwindling.

[BlackSilver]

Awrright...a few thoughts:

1. I think TP is running the PnR at a better and different level than last year. Watching Indy run it against the Heat was painful. The ball handler almost always took off before the screener was even set. Moreover, the remaining 3 dudes just stood around. No motion, no cuts, no nothing. TP meanwhile has become a master at faking which way the screen is going to be.

2. The biggest factor to me is the extent to which Miami will be able to force the Spurs to play outside their comfort zone: making TP give up the ball, forcing Danny and Kawhi to drive and score, making Splitter rely on a post game, etc. I think TP is up to the task. I think Kawhi is up to the task a few times. The key will be whether the Spurs stay patient and mix things up in order to get the shots they want anyway. I was impressed how they did that against Memphis. I also liked how TP came up big against Golden State and their underrated defense, especially when Klay guarded him.

3. In that vein, I'm curious to see how they'll play Manu. Will they dare him to score instead of facilitate? I suspect they will. How will Manu respond? I'm a little concerned about his shot right now.

4. I like our chances if Miami doubles TD in the post. He's a great passer. Whereas Hibbert is n.o.t.

5. I think Danny and Kawhi combine to take Wade out of the series.

6. I think Splitter takes away Bosh's jumper.

7. I think James gets 30-35 a game. I think the Spurs will focus more on trying to prevent him shooting the long jumpers from his preferred left side of the floor.

8. I believe Battier will have a good series shooting-wise, but not defensively. I'm not so impressed with our ability right now to guard the corner 3 pointer which is his bread and butter. I think Miller and Allen will be ok but won't shoot lights out. I like our current defensive rotations much better than when we last played them.

9. Lastly, I think much of timvp's consternation stems from the horror show that was Pop's panic in last year's WCF. He substituted in ways we hadn't seen all season. If he starts doing that, we're screwed. If he stays patient and lets Danny and Kawhi work through the tough times, I like our chances. Because there is no way we win without those two hitting timely three pointers and providing steady defense. In fact, I'd like one of those on the floor whenever Wade is in just to bottle him up. Which I think they can.

Spurs in 6. :toast

[rjv]

looks like timvp has been eating some israel guttierrez caldo lately

[Mr.Bottomtooth]

looks like timvp has been eating some israel guttierrez caldo lately

:lol

[baseline bum]

I don't get the logic of anyone picking Spurs in 7, tbh. While it would be great to see (and heart attack-inducing), you're basically calling for something to happen that hasn't happened in baseball since 1979 and in basketball since 1978. It's almost impossible for a road team to win the a Final game 7.

The Lakers did it in 2002. No one can say that Nets series was anything but a victory lap.

[024]

I'll support timvp here. People are forgetting the Spurs were gifted the finals appearance thanks to Westbrook's freak injury. This forum could very well be empty by now if the Spurs played the Thunder in the WCF. The Spurs also have yet to be tested in the playoffs. They faced a crappy Lakers in the first round full of drama and ready to implode. Then a very young and inexperienced Warriors team that gave away games in the second round. When the WCF came along, I thought the Spurs would finally be tested. But apparently, the Grizzlies inexplicably just rolled over and died. The Spurs have yet to face a championship level team and they'll meet their first one today. So it's pretty realistic to say no one knows what to expect and the Heat could very well dominate the series. The Heat proved themselves last year by taking out the Thunder and in the regular season in their 27 game win streak. They have what it takes to bring home another championship. Can we definitively say the same for the Spurs? Not really.

[I. Hustle]

I'll support timvp here. People are forgetting the Spurs were gifted the finals appearance thanks to Westbrook's freak injury. This forum could very well be empty by now if the Spurs played the Thunder in the WCF. The Spurs also have yet to be tested in the playoffs. They faced a crappy Lakers in the first round full of drama and ready to implode. Then a very young and inexperienced Warriors team that gave away games in the second round. When the WCF came along, I thought the Spurs would finally be tested. But apparently, the Grizzlies inexplicably just rolled over and died. The Spurs have yet to face a championship level team and they'll meet their first one today. So it's pretty realistic to say no one knows what to expect and the Heat could very well dominate the series. The Heat proved themselves last year by taking out the Thunder and in the regular season in their 27 game win streak. They have what it takes to bring home another championship. Can we definitively say the same for the Spurs? Not really.

I couldn't agree more. Great take! I mean if the SPurs had faced such powerhouse teams as the Bucks or the shell of the Bulls or even a team as intimidating as the Grangerless Pacers, there is no way they would be here. No matter how you slice it. Bucks in 5 or shell of the Bulls in 4 or Pacers in 2 1/2

[nkdlunch]

So the heat proved last year by beating OKC that they are contenders this year. yeah that makes sense :rolleyes

Spurs vs. OKC with healthy Westbrook this year is a toss up btw.

[024]

I couldn't agree more. Great take! I mean if the SPurs had faced such powerhouse teams as the Bucks or the shell of the Bulls or even a team as intimidating as the Grangerless Pacers, there is no way they would be here. No matter how you slice it. Bucks in 5 or shell of the Bulls in 4 or Pacers in 2 1/2
Should work on your reading comprehension. The Heat proved they can win a championship by.... winning a championship against the Thunder. Who cares if the Heat faced lesser competition in early rounds, they proved they could beat championship contenders like the Thunder last year, which the Spurs lost to. They proved to be just as dominant this year with the 27 win streak. What can the Spurs point to? Losing to a team that the Heat beat last year? Winning a couple of series against middle of the pack playoff teams?

And I'd say the Pacers were better than any team the Spurs faced in this year's playoffs. So who is more proven? Obviously, the Heat.

[I. Hustle]

Should work on your reading comprehension. The Heat proved they can win a championship by.... winning a championship against the Thunder. Who cares if the Heat faced lesser competition in early rounds, they proved they could beat championship contenders like the Thunder last year, which the Spurs lost to. They proved to be just as dominant this year with the 27 win streak. What can the Spurs point to? Losing to a team that the Heat beat last year? Winning a couple of series against middle of the pack playoff teams?

And I'd say the Pacers were better than any team the Spurs faced in this year's playoffs. So who is more proven? Obviously, the Heat.

Oh ok, so we are basing everything on last year. Cool I didn't know that last years playoffs mattered. Mybad mybad

[moisaenz]

So the heat proved last year by beating OKC that they are contenders this year. yeah that makes sense :rolleyes

Spurs vs. OKC with healthy Westbrook this year is a toss up btw.
Without harden they are different.

[024]

So the heat proved last year by beating OKC that they are contenders this year. yeah that makes sense :rolleyes

Spurs vs. OKC with healthy Westbrook this year is a toss up btw.
:lol what's a better indicator of a championship level team than actually winning one? It's not Miami's fault championships aren't given out every month. You go with what you have: they won the most recent championship, was dominant in the regular season, have this season's MVP, and reached the finals again.

[024]

Oh ok, so we are basing everything on last year. Cool I didn't know that last years playoffs mattered. Mybad mybad


Should work on your reading comprehension. The Heat proved they can win a championship by.... winning a championship against the Thunder. Who cares if the Heat faced lesser competition in early rounds, they proved they could beat championship contenders like the Thunder last year, which the Spurs lost to. They proved to be just as dominant this year with the 27 win streak. What can the Spurs point to? Losing to a team that the Heat beat last year? Winning a couple of series against middle of the pack playoff teams?

And I'd say the Pacers were better than any team the Spurs faced in this year's playoffs. So who is more proven? Obviously, the Heat.
Seriously, reading comprehension dude.

[silverblk mystix]

Well, disappointing that Timvp resorted to mind games due to a lack of balls.

If Pop watched how the Pacers STAYED BIG AT ALL COSTS and punished Miami - Spurs win the series.

If Pop panics like he has been known to do in the past - and buries Tiago on the bench due to bad matchups and allows Miami to dictate style -

Miami wins series.

Pop has done a brilliant job this year - but he can't have any lapses now.

FYI - Timvp also predicted that the BONNER TRADE - was a great move by the Spurs and that Bonner would prove to be one of the best trades that the Spurs ever made.

Just a little bit of reality for you.

[I. Hustle]

Should work on your reading comprehension. The Heat proved they can win a championship by.... winning a championship against the Thunder. Who cares if the Heat faced lesser competition in early rounds, they proved they could beat championship contenders like the Thunder last year, which the Spurs lost to. They proved to be just as dominant this year with the 27 win streak. What can the Spurs point to? Losing to a team that the Heat beat last year? Winning a couple of series against middle of the pack playoff teams?

And I'd say the Pacers were better than any team the Spurs faced in this year's playoffs. So who is more proven? Obviously, the Heat.

You are right. my bad. Reading comprehension. mybad mybad

[polandprzem]

This is one of the all time ill-timed meltdowns from timvp (http://www.spurstalk.com/forums/member.php?u=8) I have ever seen. Spurs on one of the most epic runs with an awesome team chemistry & with MIA looking vulnerable. :td all the way. Respect dwindling.

I'm with you man :tu

[I. Hustle]

:lol what's a better indicator of a championship level team than actually winning one? It's not Miami's fault championships aren't given out every month. You go with what you have: they won the most recent championship, was dominant in the regular season, have this season's MVP, and reached the finals again.

Could easily have been said about the Spurs if healthy. It's not like Miami ran away with it. They had that 27 game winning streak and still only caught up to the Spurs.

[HI-FI]

This is one of the all time ill-timed meltdowns from timvp (http://www.spurstalk.com/forums/member.php?u=8) I have ever seen. Spurs on one of the most epic runs with an awesome team chemistry & with MIA looking vulnerable. :td all the way. Respect dwindling.
:tu to niggaDPG.

I have nothing against timvp's opinion, it's just he's been increasingly emo about these matchups lately. It's just weird that Phil Jackson has more confidence in these Spurs than timvp. I have no idea how it will turn out but I still believe.

[hitmanyr2k]

The Heat proved they can win a championship by.... winning a championship against the Thunder. Who cares if the Heat faced lesser competition in early rounds, they proved they could beat championship contenders like the Thunder last year, which the Spurs lost to. They proved to be just as dominant this year with the 27 win streak. What can the Spurs point to? Losing to a team that the Heat beat last year? Winning a couple of series against middle of the pack playoff teams?

And I'd say the Pacers were better than any team the Spurs faced in this year's playoffs. So who is more proven? Obviously, the Heat.

That Pacers team was garbage. Just because the Heat made them look like decent competition doesn't mean it's so. Indiana's only strength was the mediocre Roy Hibbert and somehow Miami let a 12 point regular season scorer (14 point playoff scorer before the ECF) look like an all-world center. The rest of that Pacer team was average at best. Their point guards couldn't handle ball pressure to save their lives and panicked anytime Miami blitzed them. Paul George was an overrated, inconsistent rising star before the ECF and continued that same trend mixing good games with horrible ones. And as a point forward the guy was terrible. He could have the biggest target in Hibbert on the floor and still find a way to throw the low entry pass off the mark. It was clear he had no idea how to direct an offense and turned the ball over way too much. Indiana's bench? Oh that's right. They didn't have a bench. And what more can you say about the coach? Take out your best rim protector at the end of the game and leave the paint wide open (twice) so Lebron James (who was choking on his own vomit in crunch time of Game 1) can redeem himself and be the hero. Let Lance Stephenson (a player with the ball IQ of a mosquito and the worst turnover machine since S-Jax) play like a chicken with his head cut off and never hold him accountable. I'm shocked that series made it past 5 games and the only reason it did was because the Heat simply missed shots. Shane Battier did this same thing last year... sucked for the first three rounds and then miraculously woke up in time to have a great Finals where he seemingly hit everything against OKC. On the flipside James Harden had a great playoff run last year and then at the wrong time shit the bed in the Finals against Miami and couldn't throw the ball in the ocean if he were standing on a boat. He just got worse as the series went on. Spurs fans just better hope Miami's shooters are still slumping. If their shooters are sucking the Spurs have a great chance to take this series.

[Virgil]

Thanks timvp, well put.
Now I am confidence we´re gonna expose those fuckers! :flag:

[skulls138]

Should work on your reading comprehension. The Heat proved they can win a championship by.... winning a championship against the Thunder. Who cares if the Heat faced lesser competition in early rounds, they proved they could beat championship contenders like the Thunder last year, which the Spurs lost to. They proved to be just as dominant this year with the 27 win streak. What can the Spurs point to? Losing to a team that the Heat beat last year? Winning a couple of series against middle of the pack playoff teams?

And I'd say the Pacers were better than any team the Spurs faced in this year's playoffs. So who is more proven? Obviously, the Heat.The Spurs won 4 championships so whats your point, and you only say the Pacers are better because they took the Heat 7 games. Once the Warriors almost won the first game and actually did win the second game, everyone thought the Spurs were done but in the end made it look easy, and no one saw the Spurs sweeping the Grizz. No one gives the Spurs credit, always the other team wasn't good.

[N0 LyF3 ScRuB]

Should work on your reading comprehension. The Heat proved they can win a championship by.... winning a championship against the Thunder. Who cares if the Heat faced lesser competition in early rounds, they proved they could beat championship contenders like the Thunder last year, which the Spurs lost to. They proved to be just as dominant this year with the 27 win streak. What can the Spurs point to? Losing to a team that the Heat beat last year? Winning a couple of series against middle of the pack playoff teams?

And I'd say the Pacers were better than any team the Spurs faced in this year's playoffs. So who is more proven? Obviously, the Heat.

1) The Heat had the easiest route to the title.
2) The Pacers are inexperienced in big games (unlike the Spurs)
3) Spurs beat Pacers twice in regular season
4) Hibbert is a mediocre center. Wouldn't be surprised to see Splitter go for big numbers
5) West Conference > East Conference

[TampaDude]

Spurs in 5.

Why?

Just because.

[Mr. Body]

I... pretty much agree. I didn't agree on the Memphis prediction.

The Heat coast like mutherfuckers. Someday it's gonna cost them, but that day isn't here yet. They're a team you struggle to watch. They are joyless. They complain about everything. They fuck around until late in the game and then play enough to win. That's it.

Their ceiling is just so high, and they know they can get there. And there's not a team that can stop them, and not our beloved Spurs.

[Horse]

what concerns me is that we just haven't really beaten the heat.
i think it will mindfuck our young guys especially
Our bench beat the heat this year. And don't give me no shit about the final score, we won that game and shit officiating took it in the end.

[TD 21]

I would be shocked if this series doesn't go at least 6. I can't imagine the Spurs finally getting to this point only to go down in 5. Even if it becomes clear they're outmatched and not going to win the series, they'll probably find a way to will themselves to 2 wins.

[DPG21920]

I can possibly see the Spurs losing in 5, but not with how timvp comes off. He makes it appear as if the Spurs stand no shot. That all their weaknesses will be exposed like it's Spurs v Lakers in Round 1.

They may lose, but even if it's like the MEM series where it's a sweep, it will be competitive. The point is, while SA is not exactly INDY they do enough stuff similarly and they are overall better so if MIA doesn't dramatically improve how they played from the last round, Spurs won't make the same mistakes (turn overs, lack of offense) that INDY made.

[TD 21]

I can possibly see the Spurs losing in 5, but not with how timvp comes off. He makes it appear as if the Spurs stand no shot. That all their weaknesses will be exposed like it's Spurs v Lakers in Round 1.

They may lose, but even if it's like the MEM series where it's a sweep, it will be competitive. The point is, while SA is not exactly INDY they do enough stuff similarly and they are overall better so if MIA doesn't dramatically improve how they played from the last round, Spurs won't make the same mistakes (turn overs, lack of offense) that INDY made.

I mostly agree with this, other than you terming those "mistakes" on the Pacers part, when in reality they were more due to their limited talent level; specifically ball handling/passing.

[ace3g]

The one thing I get bothered about is that when the media compares the Spurs to the Pacers in terms of the height adv they might have against the Heat they only mention TD/Tiago and Hibb/West respectively for their teams; when the Spurs still have Diaw while the Pacers had Mahinmi and Hans. The drop off in PF/C depth for the Pacers is bad.

Diaw brings another dimension off the bench on both sides of the court.

[timvp]

He makes it appear as if the Spurs stand no shot.

I've said I give the Spurs a 30% shot to win the series. That's close to Vegas/accuscore/teamranking etc.

[GaryJohnston]

Should work on your reading comprehension. The Heat proved they can win a championship by.... winning a championship against the Thunder. Who cares if the Heat faced lesser competition in early rounds, they proved they could beat championship contenders like the Thunder last year, which the Spurs lost to. They proved to be just as dominant this year with the 27 win streak. What can the Spurs point to? Losing to a team that the Heat beat last year? Winning a couple of series against middle of the pack playoff teams?

And I'd say the Pacers were better than any team the Spurs faced in this year's playoffs. So who is more proven? Obviously, the Heat.

Spurs would of swept the Pacers or gotten it done in 5 tbh.

And had the Heat played against the Thunder team that showed up in the WCF last year, they would of lost. But the Thunder seemed to be happy just to be there and they went cold. I couldn't believe how cold Harden went.

[wut]

I know there's a lot of jest in this thread, but seriously LJ makes completely valid and undeniable truths. It scares me tbh. Here's to hoping that Parker and Pop have a backup plan already in place for when their defense attacks Parker.

[tlongII]

I hope I'm wrong again. I hope beyond hope I'm wrong.

I don't think I've ever wanted the Spurs to win a series as much as this forthcoming series against the Heat. It would be such an amazing story of hard work, persistence, teamwork, unity and everything else sports should be about. If San Antonio wins this series, no matter what happens in future years, you could bury me the happiest sports fan on Earth.

Unfortunately, I don't see it happening. While watching the respective conference finals matchups, it was difficult not to fall in love with San Antonio's chances. But after taking a step back and analyzing everything, I truly think the Heat will win this series in five games.

1. The Spurs can't replicate the Pacers
It's true the Spurs are much better than the Pacers. It's also true that the Pacers were close to beating the Heat. Unfortunately, those two statements aren't related.

Playoff basketball is all about matchups. Indiana, even though they aren't that good, matchup very well with Miami.

First of all, Roy Hibbert is in a class of his own when it comes to protecting the basket. Advanced stats point in that direction and I wholeheartedly agree. He's tall, long, strongly built, fearless, smart and quick enough. While I'd classify Duncan as the superior all-around defender because he's better out on the court and better defending opposing post players, Hibbert is better than Duncan at defending the rim. Just as importantly, LeBron James was obviously intimidated by his presence.

Hibbert has about three inches and 50 pounds on Duncan. Add in the rest of the length and athleticism on the Pacers (as Frank Vogel said of his team: "We're f**king huge!") and they're a totally different beast than the Spurs.

Indiana also has a lot of interchangeable defenders, which further helps in terms of dealing with the Heat. The Spurs don't have that luxury.

On offense, the Pacers can hit the Heat in their two main weak spots. First, their offensive rebounding takes advantage of Miami's iffy work on the glass. Secondly, the ability to put multiple post-up threats on the court at the same time takes advantage of their lack of quality true bigman depth. The Spurs, on the other hand, don't go after offensive boards and they only have one tried and true post-up threat.

Long story short, the Pacers aren't very good but their areas of strength work very well against the Heat. Thus, the susceptibility of the Heat in the ECF was more a product of matchups than anything else.

2. The Heat's pick-and-roll defense will slow the Spurs' offense
The way Miami defends the pick-and-roll night in and night out is how the Thunder defended the pick-and-roll after the start of Game 3 in last season's WCF. They are going to blitz Tony Parker and force him to either play in a crowd or give the ball up. Most teams can't get away with this strategy but it works for the Heat (and worked for the Thunder) due to elite athleticism on the weakside when recovering to shooters.

Plus, Miami is even better at this style of defense than OKC because they do it so often. I expect them to blitz Parker relentlessly in an effort to make someone else beat them.

In the starting unit, there really isn't a pressure valve for TP. Can Danny Green or Tiago Splitter pop open and create plays after Parker gets trapped? Hopefully … but obviously far from certain.

The obvious solution for the Spurs would be to pair Parker and Ginobili as often as possible. Thus, when Parker gets trapped, he gives it to Ginobili so he can create with a 4-on-3 advantage. Again, hopefully that works, but at this stage of his career does the Argentine have the wherewithal and stamina to create consistently in a seven games series against an athletic and aggressive rotating defense?

Boris Diaw is another possible remedy … but will he be enough of a scoring threat for the Heat to respect his shot? If not, could Bonner come in and knock down the biggest shots of his life?

I just don't have confidence in any of these scenarios.

3. The Spurs will find it difficult to stay big
Having Duncan and Tiago Splitter on the court is preferred when going against this team. The Pacers were able to punish the Heat by keeping David West next to Hibbert.

But I don't think Pop is going to be able to go long stretches with that duo. On defense, Splitter would probably have to chase someone like Shane Battier or Mike Miller out on the perimeter. That'll be difficult -- but not impossible.

But the big difference between West and Splitter is on offense. West will absolutely punish smaller defenders. Battier, for example, had no chance against him. Splitter, on the other hand, really struggles to post-up smaller defenders. I don't think I have to remind Spurs fans how Derek Fisher was able to guard him in the post a year ago -- or Klay Thompson a couple weeks ago.

Is Splitter going to be able to destroy Battier? I haven't seen any evidence to be confident he will. Hell, I'm not sure he could bully Miller. Splitter has a high center of gravity and has trouble when short players use strength against him. He's actually better against bigger, less mobile defenders.

So, if Splitter can't make the Heat pay for going small by scoring in the post, it's unlikely having him roam around the perimeter chasing Battier or Miller on defense is going to be worth keeping him on the court. The result, IMO, will be Pop going more to Diaw, Bonner or small ball instead of the preferred tandem of TD and Splitter.

4. The Heat have been coasting
During the regular season, the Heat were one of the best teams I've ever seen. It's not much of a stretch to say this was one of the top 10 best regular seasons ever by any team. They've been a relative disappointment in the playoffs but I think they realized what we all knew: the East was terrible and getting to the Finals was a formality from the beginning.

Sure, they needed to try a little bit to put the Pacers away but I don't think they've even taken it out of first or second gear yet. They have a ton of room to improve entering this series -- and now that they can see the light at the end of the tunnel, I expect them to play by far their best basketball of the postseason.

As far as Wade and Bosh are concerned, I think they realized a LeBron-led team could make it to the Finals by himself. Where they injured? Yeah, maybe a little bit, but I think their struggles were more to do with coasting. In these Finals, I expect both at or near 100%.

5. Miami has the more trustworthy shooters
This series could very well come down to which team's role players are hitting their three-pointers. And looking at the respective resumes, it's difficult to not side with the Heat. They haven't shot well in the playoffs so far -- but let's not forget how well they shot in the Finals last year.

When the lights got bright, they seemingly couldn't miss. For example, take Battier. Like this season, Battier struggled in the Eastern Conference portion of the bracket in 2012. But come the Finals, he shot 57% from deep. His has hit less than one-fourth of his threes so far in these playoffs but I wouldn't be surprised if he snaps out of that slump in the Finals.

Battier, Ray Allen, Mike Miller … those are some of the players you'd most want taking pressure shots.

The Spurs on paper have very good shooters but is anyone really confident in Bonner in the Finals? How about Kawhi Leonard after spending so much of his energy on D? Green doesn't exactly have a sparkling resume in this department. Ginobili has been streaky -- to put it kindly. Neal? Yeah, no.

6. The Heat have LeBron James
More often than not, the winner of a playoff series is the team with the best player. LeBron James is that man. He's not only the best basketball player in the universe, he's a top five talent ever and he's in his absolute prime. Which players in history would you rather have on your team than 2013 LeBron? Personally, my list probably begins and ends with Michael Jordan.

I don't think I need to explain how great LeBron is right now. When the best athlete in the NBA is also the best passer in the league, the best finisher and now suddenly one of the best shooters, that's a recipe for a monster. Add in his experience and his newfound maturity and it's going to take a Herculean effort to beat his team four times in a series.

Don't get me wrong, Parker is damn good. I've called him the second most dominating player in the league when he's healthy. But there's a wide gulf between first and second on that list. Current LeBron is in that class of superstar that is impossible to stop regardless of defensive gameplan. Prime Jordan, Prime Duncan and Prime Shaq are three other examples.

Parker, for as great as he has become, lacks that final trait to move him up into that rarefied air. You can slow Parker if you make that your team's No. 1 objective. You can't slow LeBron. That will, unfortunately, prove to be a gigantic difference.



Again, I pray to all that is holy and/or mighty that I'm wrong. Against the Grizzlies I proved to be dead wrong about Parker (I thought he was hurt; turned out he had the best series of his life) and Splitter (I wasn't sold with his toughness in the middle; turned out toughness wasn't an issue at all -- he was great in that regard). Hopefully I'm wrong about a couple of the above items. I would be the happiest S.O.B. on the planet if I'm wrong again.

But if the series plays out like I suspect it to, I see Heat in five. Miami wins the first two games. Spurs win Game 3 after Pop replaces Green in the starting lineup with Ginobili. Heat win Game 4 in heartbreaking fashion (for us Spurs fans) and then close out S.A. in Game 5 with their whole team hitting on all cylinders at that point.

That's my honest view. Let's hope the actual result makes me look stupid again.

I think you're right this time. :tu

[GaryJohnston]

I can possibly see the Spurs losing in 5, but not with how timvp comes off. He makes it appear as if the Spurs stand no shot. That all their weaknesses will be exposed like it's Spurs v Lakers in Round 1.

They may lose, but even if it's like the MEM series where it's a sweep, it will be competitive. The point is, while SA is not exactly INDY they do enough stuff similarly and they are overall better so if MIA doesn't dramatically improve how they played from the last round, Spurs won't make the same mistakes (turn overs, lack of offense) that INDY made.

I can see that too, us losing in 5 and the only way that happens is if our role players like Green, Gino, Bonner, Tiago and I'll even throw in KL just simply don't show up and have gotten cold because of the time off. Timmy, Tony and Pop will show up, we just need everyone else to like they have been.

[SenorSpur]

I'll support timvp here. People are forgetting the Spurs were gifted the finals appearance thanks to Westbrook's freak injury. This forum could very well be empty by now if the Spurs played the Thunder in the WCF. The Spurs also have yet to be tested in the playoffs. They faced a crappy Lakers in the first round full of drama and ready to implode. Then a very young and inexperienced Warriors team that gave away games in the second round. When the WCF came along, I thought the Spurs would finally be tested. But apparently, the Grizzlies inexplicably just rolled over and died. The Spurs have yet to face a championship level team and they'll meet their first one today. So it's pretty realistic to say no one knows what to expect and the Heat could very well dominate the series. The Heat proved themselves last year by taking out the Thunder and in the regular season in their 27 game win streak. They have what it takes to bring home another championship. Can we definitively say the same for the Spurs? Not really.

I couldn't disagree more. With the exception of the Fakers series, the Spurs were most certainly tested in the subsequent two rounds of the playoffs. They were shocked and knocked to mat by an upstart and youthful Golden State team. A team that, by the way, was missing one of it's best players in David Lee. The Spurs righted the ship and took the fight back to the Warriors and won the series in six. Next up, the physically-bruising Memphis Grizzlies. Obviously, they posed a very different type of matchup. Remember two games were won in overtime that could've went either way. The Spurs simply took away their strengths and capitalized on their weaknesses to oust them in four. Despite the fact that the Spurs swept them, it doesn't mean the Grizzlies were pushovers. They were a formidable opponent.

It's no accident that the Spurs are in the Finals. They've proved themselves championship-worthy along this journey and they need not apologize to anyone. Obviously, they respect the Heat, but they certainly have no reason to fear them. While the Heat lay claim to having the best player in the NBA, the Spurs can boast a team that has the best PG in the NBA, the best PF in NBA history, superior execution, the better bench and of course, the coaching edge. The Spurs big three is playing at a more cohesive level than that of the Heat. Finally, don't underestimate the will of their Parker, Duncan and Ginobili. They are undefeated in NBA Finals series and I expect them to be locked in and playing at an elite level in every game. They all know what this means. That said, I give the edge to the San Antonio. Spurs in 6. :toast

[wut]

History will never be remembered as what teams had easy roads to the Finals or what teams played against crippled opponents....all that is remembered, is who won.

[barbacoataco]

This is like trying to predict a boxing match between two guys who are both winners, and you could make arguments either way, but when the fight starts you start to see who is stronger, or a better match-up. Once it starts it's obvious. So many analysts were picking Memphis even after the Spurs went up. By the end of the series Magic and the other talking heads were going on and on as if it was obvious from the start that the Spurs were vastly superior and destined to cruise.

I'm ready for it. Bring it. Go Spurs. Go Spurs. Basketball has a lot to do with who makes shots. Go Spurs.......

[angelbelow]

Spurs in 6 :toast

[Mugen]

It's been a weird f'n season tbh. Might as well go big and say Spurs in 5 nuggas.

[wut]

This is like trying to predict a boxing match between two guys who are both winners, and you could make arguments either way, but when the fight starts you start to see who is stronger, or a better match-up. Once it starts it's obvious. So many analysts were picking Memphis even after the Spurs went up. By the end of the series Magic and the other talking heads were going on and on as if it was obvious from the start that the Spurs were vastly superior and destined to cruise.

I'm ready for it. Bring it. Go Spurs. Go Spurs. Basketball has a lot to do with who makes shots. Go Spurs.......
I kinda agree...but I think there is another reason as well:

1) Heat have not been consistent in the playoffs.
2) Spurs looked like crap at the end of the regular season.

No one knows the true identity of either team, which is why this just may be too close to call as you mention, until the first punches are thrown.

[Capster]

Go write a book somewhere else, seriously. Get lost!:flag::flag::flag: If I want to hear any other "words of wisdom" from you I'll give you a call.

[pgardn]

There are only two teams playing.

This is not a 20 horse Kentucky Derby field.

So who ever you pick... Congrats. The coin was going to fall on one of the two.

So the coin is weighted and you know this and pick the series exactly, polite golf clap for you, there are only a few permutations. You are lucky. Now, if you actually give good reasoning in picking your team and the series follows that script, it shall be noted. Otherwise it's hollow overblown luck. A truck will hit you tomorrow, or you will meet a new important person in your life soon. Fortune cookies are a bitch to write... Right?

[superjames1992]

I hope I'm wrong again. I hope beyond hope I'm wrong.

I don't think I've ever wanted the Spurs to win a series as much as this forthcoming series against the Heat. It would be such an amazing story of hard work, persistence, teamwork, unity and everything else sports should be about. If San Antonio wins this series, no matter what happens in future years, you could bury me the happiest sports fan on Earth.

Unfortunately, I don't see it happening. While watching the respective conference finals matchups, it was difficult not to fall in love with San Antonio's chances. But after taking a step back and analyzing everything, I truly think the Heat will win this series in five games.

1. The Spurs can't replicate the Pacers
It's true the Spurs are much better than the Pacers. It's also true that the Pacers were close to beating the Heat. Unfortunately, those two statements aren't related.

Playoff basketball is all about matchups. Indiana, even though they aren't that good, matchup very well with Miami.

First of all, Roy Hibbert is in a class of his own when it comes to protecting the basket. Advanced stats point in that direction and I wholeheartedly agree. He's tall, long, strongly built, fearless, smart and quick enough. While I'd classify Duncan as the superior all-around defender because he's better out on the court and better defending opposing post players, Hibbert is better than Duncan at defending the rim. Just as importantly, LeBron James was obviously intimidated by his presence.

Hibbert has about three inches and 50 pounds on Duncan. Add in the rest of the length and athleticism on the Pacers (as Frank Vogel said of his team: "We're f**king huge!") and they're a totally different beast than the Spurs.

Indiana also has a lot of interchangeable defenders, which further helps in terms of dealing with the Heat. The Spurs don't have that luxury.

On offense, the Pacers can hit the Heat in their two main weak spots. First, their offensive rebounding takes advantage of Miami's iffy work on the glass. Secondly, the ability to put multiple post-up threats on the court at the same time takes advantage of their lack of quality true bigman depth. The Spurs, on the other hand, don't go after offensive boards and they only have one tried and true post-up threat.

Long story short, the Pacers aren't very good but their areas of strength work very well against the Heat. Thus, the susceptibility of the Heat in the ECF was more a product of matchups than anything else.

2. The Heat's pick-and-roll defense will slow the Spurs' offense
The way Miami defends the pick-and-roll night in and night out is how the Thunder defended the pick-and-roll after the start of Game 3 in last season's WCF. They are going to blitz Tony Parker and force him to either play in a crowd or give the ball up. Most teams can't get away with this strategy but it works for the Heat (and worked for the Thunder) due to elite athleticism on the weakside when recovering to shooters.

Plus, Miami is even better at this style of defense than OKC because they do it so often. I expect them to blitz Parker relentlessly in an effort to make someone else beat them.

In the starting unit, there really isn't a pressure valve for TP. Can Danny Green or Tiago Splitter pop open and create plays after Parker gets trapped? Hopefully … but obviously far from certain.

The obvious solution for the Spurs would be to pair Parker and Ginobili as often as possible. Thus, when Parker gets trapped, he gives it to Ginobili so he can create with a 4-on-3 advantage. Again, hopefully that works, but at this stage of his career does the Argentine have the wherewithal and stamina to create consistently in a seven games series against an athletic and aggressive rotating defense?

Boris Diaw is another possible remedy … but will he be enough of a scoring threat for the Heat to respect his shot? If not, could Bonner come in and knock down the biggest shots of his life?

I just don't have confidence in any of these scenarios.

3. The Spurs will find it difficult to stay big
Having Duncan and Tiago Splitter on the court is preferred when going against this team. The Pacers were able to punish the Heat by keeping David West next to Hibbert.

But I don't think Pop is going to be able to go long stretches with that duo. On defense, Splitter would probably have to chase someone like Shane Battier or Mike Miller out on the perimeter. That'll be difficult -- but not impossible.

But the big difference between West and Splitter is on offense. West will absolutely punish smaller defenders. Battier, for example, had no chance against him. Splitter, on the other hand, really struggles to post-up smaller defenders. I don't think I have to remind Spurs fans how Derek Fisher was able to guard him in the post a year ago -- or Klay Thompson a couple weeks ago.

Is Splitter going to be able to destroy Battier? I haven't seen any evidence to be confident he will. Hell, I'm not sure he could bully Miller. Splitter has a high center of gravity and has trouble when short players use strength against him. He's actually better against bigger, less mobile defenders.

So, if Splitter can't make the Heat pay for going small by scoring in the post, it's unlikely having him roam around the perimeter chasing Battier or Miller on defense is going to be worth keeping him on the court. The result, IMO, will be Pop going more to Diaw, Bonner or small ball instead of the preferred tandem of TD and Splitter.

4. The Heat have been coasting
During the regular season, the Heat were one of the best teams I've ever seen. It's not much of a stretch to say this was one of the top 10 best regular seasons ever by any team. They've been a relative disappointment in the playoffs but I think they realized what we all knew: the East was terrible and getting to the Finals was a formality from the beginning.

Sure, they needed to try a little bit to put the Pacers away but I don't think they've even taken it out of first or second gear yet. They have a ton of room to improve entering this series -- and now that they can see the light at the end of the tunnel, I expect them to play by far their best basketball of the postseason.

As far as Wade and Bosh are concerned, I think they realized a LeBron-led team could make it to the Finals by himself. Where they injured? Yeah, maybe a little bit, but I think their struggles were more to do with coasting. In these Finals, I expect both at or near 100%.

5. Miami has the more trustworthy shooters
This series could very well come down to which team's role players are hitting their three-pointers. And looking at the respective resumes, it's difficult to not side with the Heat. They haven't shot well in the playoffs so far -- but let's not forget how well they shot in the Finals last year.

When the lights got bright, they seemingly couldn't miss. For example, take Battier. Like this season, Battier struggled in the Eastern Conference portion of the bracket in 2012. But come the Finals, he shot 57% from deep. His has hit less than one-fourth of his threes so far in these playoffs but I wouldn't be surprised if he snaps out of that slump in the Finals.

Battier, Ray Allen, Mike Miller … those are some of the players you'd most want taking pressure shots.

The Spurs on paper have very good shooters but is anyone really confident in Bonner in the Finals? How about Kawhi Leonard after spending so much of his energy on D? Green doesn't exactly have a sparkling resume in this department. Ginobili has been streaky -- to put it kindly. Neal? Yeah, no.

6. The Heat have LeBron James
More often than not, the winner of a playoff series is the team with the best player. LeBron James is that man. He's not only the best basketball player in the universe, he's a top five talent ever and he's in his absolute prime. Which players in history would you rather have on your team than 2013 LeBron? Personally, my list probably begins and ends with Michael Jordan.

I don't think I need to explain how great LeBron is right now. When the best athlete in the NBA is also the best passer in the league, the best finisher and now suddenly one of the best shooters, that's a recipe for a monster. Add in his experience and his newfound maturity and it's going to take a Herculean effort to beat his team four times in a series.

Don't get me wrong, Parker is damn good. I've called him the second most dominating player in the league when he's healthy. But there's a wide gulf between first and second on that list. Current LeBron is in that class of superstar that is impossible to stop regardless of defensive gameplan. Prime Jordan, Prime Duncan and Prime Shaq are three other examples.

Parker, for as great as he has become, lacks that final trait to move him up into that rarefied air. You can slow Parker if you make that your team's No. 1 objective. You can't slow LeBron. That will, unfortunately, prove to be a gigantic difference.



Again, I pray to all that is holy and/or mighty that I'm wrong. Against the Grizzlies I proved to be dead wrong about Parker (I thought he was hurt; turned out he had the best series of his life) and Splitter (I wasn't sold with his toughness in the middle; turned out toughness wasn't an issue at all -- he was great in that regard). Hopefully I'm wrong about a couple of the above items. I would be the happiest S.O.B. on the planet if I'm wrong again.

But if the series plays out like I suspect it to, I see Heat in five. Miami wins the first two games. Spurs win Game 3 after Pop replaces Green in the starting lineup with Ginobili. Heat win Game 4 in heartbreaking fashion (for us Spurs fans) and then close out S.A. in Game 5 with their whole team hitting on all cylinders at that point.

That's my honest view. Let's hope the actual result makes me look stupid again.
fuk yo predictions clown. :lol






(Reference to that SJAX tweet, btw, tbh) ;)

[100%duncan]

:lmao

[Agloco]

fuk yo predictions clown. :lol






(Reference to that SJAX tweet, btw, tbh) ;)


:lmao

Indeed. Spurs shitting on timvp tbh.

Although, I'm sure he's happy about that. :lol

[RD2191]

I did not hack timvp's account, just saying.

[silverblackfan]

Well deserved, but maybe too soon.

I for one salute the fine jinx thread.

[100%duncan]

Well deserved, but maybe too soon.

I for one salute the fine jinx thread.

It's not too soon because the Heat can't win in 5 anymore. And no, this is not a jinx thread.

[DPG21920]

Why do people keep acting like West punished MIA? He was pretty average (at best) offensively. He was a solid Bosh defender on the perimeter and does have more mobility on that end than Tiago or Tim probably (on the perimeter), but he was not an efficient nor consistent threat on offense.

Tiago plays the Hibbert role on offense somewhat (he won't score consistently like Hibbert obviously) but as long as Tim can out produce West (which he should quite easily do) the front court scoring/efficiency should hopefully be a wash. If that's the case, then the Spurs perimeter players have to be better than Indys (shooting, turnovers, ball movement) and offensively Spurs should be ok (even with a diminished PnR offense due to MIA's PnR defense).

While Hibbert may be better than Duncan at protecting the rim, I certainly don't think it's a wide margin (especially in money time like the finals) and the Spurs also have another 7 footer in Tiago to help (where INDY did not).


For every difference in INDY vs SA, I think SA can make it up in other areas. For example: Offensive rebounding. Yes, INDY is much better, but many of those extra possessions were negated by TO's. If the Spurs can cut down the TO's (which they should) that bridges the gap in some of the offensive rebounds.

Things of that nature, plus the fact SA is better, leads me to believe that SA will not lose in 5. Will they lose the series? Likely, but not in 5 and they have a solid shot a winning. Spurs will win one of the first two games IMO, likely game 1.


Lego Spurs

[HankChinaski]

I like our defense more than anything else this game. Really took the rhythm out of the heats hands. If the spurs can continue this type of ball movement and open looks it makes things difficult for the heat for duration of the series. Great game. I'll have to rewatch the game. But the team definitely corrected the mental lapses on both ends that really let the heat blow up last game.

[Spurs and Mavs fan]

Heat in 5 is now mathematically impossible.

[polandprzem]

Heat in 5 is now mathematically impossible.

Does not matter

When heat played Indy timvp said the Grizzlies got more chances to advance then Pacers. I remind you that spurs already clinched the series.

[SpurOutofTownFan]

Please tell me you didn't bump this thread?

[timtonymanu]

I'm still good. I said Heat in 6. :hat

[DejuanorwhatDude]

I feel like whoever is winning the series is doing so in 6.

[Aztecfan03]

I'm still good. I said Heat in 6. :hat


I feel like whoever is winning the series is doing so in 6.

Heat are not winning 2 straight in San Antonio.

[thiste]

I'm still good. I said Spurs in 5. :hat

[capek]

I'm still good. I said Heat in 6. :hat

[N0 LyF3 ScRuB]

Lol at emo spurs fans

[JRHernandez88]

Ayo wtf this better be one of those jinx type threads I swear smh









http://imageshack.us/a/img35/5463/raydisgusted.png

[therealtruth]

I like our defense more than anything else this game. Really took the rhythm out of the heats hands. If the spurs can continue this type of ball movement and open looks it makes things difficult for the heat for duration of the series. Great game. I'll have to rewatch the game. But the team definitely corrected the mental lapses on both ends that really let the heat blow up last game.

The defense is what I've liked the most about this team. It's not about the 3's that they're hitting but what they're doing on the defensive end. DG gets a block on Lebron and it results in a 3 from Neal on the other end. They're letting their defense feed their offense.

[superjames1992]

Heat in 7.

:downspin:

[TampaDude]

Spurs in 6.

Y'all know it's coming.

[Supreme_Being]

Man. I thought it was gon be a Spurs sweep. #homer

[Spurs and Mavs fan]

Heat in 6 is also mathematically impossible too :rollin

[dallasmaverickslose]

Heat in 4