Heat in 5: My Reasoning

[timvp]

I hope I'm wrong again. I hope beyond hope I'm wrong.

I don't think I've ever wanted the Spurs to win a series as much as this forthcoming series against the Heat. It would be such an amazing story of hard work, persistence, teamwork, unity and everything else sports should be about. If San Antonio wins this series, no matter what happens in future years, you could bury me the happiest sports fan on Earth.

Unfortunately, I don't see it happening. While watching the respective conference finals matchups, it was difficult not to fall in love with San Antonio's chances. But after taking a step back and analyzing everything, I truly think the Heat will win this series in five games.

1. The Spurs can't replicate the Pacers
It's true the Spurs are much better than the Pacers. It's also true that the Pacers were close to beating the Heat. Unfortunately, those two statements aren't related.

Playoff basketball is all about matchups. Indiana, even though they aren't that good, matchup very well with Miami.

First of all, Roy Hibbert is in a class of his own when it comes to protecting the basket. Advanced stats point in that direction and I wholeheartedly agree. He's tall, long, strongly built, fearless, smart and quick enough. While I'd classify Duncan as the superior all-around defender because he's better out on the court and better defending opposing post players, Hibbert is better than Duncan at defending the rim. Just as importantly, LeBron James was obviously intimidated by his presence.

Hibbert has about three inches and 50 pounds on Duncan. Add in the rest of the length and athleticism on the Pacers (as Frank Vogel said of his team: "We're f**king huge!") and they're a totally different beast than the Spurs.

Indiana also has a lot of interchangeable defenders, which further helps in terms of dealing with the Heat. The Spurs don't have that luxury.

On offense, the Pacers can hit the Heat in their two main weak spots. First, their offensive rebounding takes advantage of Miami's iffy work on the glass. Secondly, the ability to put multiple post-up threats on the court at the same time takes advantage of their lack of quality true bigman depth. The Spurs, on the other hand, don't go after offensive boards and they only have one tried and true post-up threat.

Long story short, the Pacers aren't very good but their areas of strength work very well against the Heat. Thus, the susceptibility of the Heat in the ECF was more a product of matchups than anything else.

2. The Heat's pick-and-roll defense will slow the Spurs' offense
The way Miami defends the pick-and-roll night in and night out is how the Thunder defended the pick-and-roll after the start of Game 3 in last season's WCF. They are going to blitz Tony Parker and force him to either play in a crowd or give the ball up. Most teams can't get away with this strategy but it works for the Heat (and worked for the Thunder) due to elite athleticism on the weakside when recovering to shooters.

Plus, Miami is even better at this style of defense than OKC because they do it so often. I expect them to blitz Parker relentlessly in an effort to make someone else beat them.

In the starting unit, there really isn't a pressure valve for TP. Can Danny Green or Tiago Splitter pop open and create plays after Parker gets trapped? Hopefully … but obviously far from certain.

The obvious solution for the Spurs would be to pair Parker and Ginobili as often as possible. Thus, when Parker gets trapped, he gives it to Ginobili so he can create with a 4-on-3 advantage. Again, hopefully that works, but at this stage of his career does the Argentine have the wherewithal and stamina to create consistently in a seven games series against an athletic and aggressive rotating defense?

Boris Diaw is another possible remedy … but will he be enough of a scoring threat for the Heat to respect his shot? If not, could Bonner come in and knock down the biggest shots of his life?

I just don't have confidence in any of these scenarios.

3. The Spurs will find it difficult to stay big
Having Duncan and Tiago Splitter on the court is preferred when going against this team. The Pacers were able to punish the Heat by keeping David West next to Hibbert.

But I don't think Pop is going to be able to go long stretches with that duo. On defense, Splitter would probably have to chase someone like Shane Battier or Mike Miller out on the perimeter. That'll be difficult -- but not impossible.

But the big difference between West and Splitter is on offense. West will absolutely punish smaller defenders. Battier, for example, had no chance against him. Splitter, on the other hand, really struggles to post-up smaller defenders. I don't think I have to remind Spurs fans how Derek Fisher was able to guard him in the post a year ago -- or Klay Thompson a couple weeks ago.

Is Splitter going to be able to destroy Battier? I haven't seen any evidence to be confident he will. Hell, I'm not sure he could bully Miller. Splitter has a high center of gravity and has trouble when short players use strength against him. He's actually better against bigger, less mobile defenders.

So, if Splitter can't make the Heat pay for going small by scoring in the post, it's unlikely having him roam around the perimeter chasing Battier or Miller on defense is going to be worth keeping him on the court. The result, IMO, will be Pop going more to Diaw, Bonner or small ball instead of the preferred tandem of TD and Splitter.

4. The Heat have been coasting
During the regular season, the Heat were one of the best teams I've ever seen. It's not much of a stretch to say this was one of the top 10 best regular seasons ever by any team. They've been a relative disappointment in the playoffs but I think they realized what we all knew: the East was terrible and getting to the Finals was a formality from the beginning.

Sure, they needed to try a little bit to put the Pacers away but I don't think they've even taken it out of first or second gear yet. They have a ton of room to improve entering this series -- and now that they can see the light at the end of the tunnel, I expect them to play by far their best basketball of the postseason.

As far as Wade and Bosh are concerned, I think they realized a LeBron-led team could make it to the Finals by himself. Where they injured? Yeah, maybe a little bit, but I think their struggles were more to do with coasting. In these Finals, I expect both at or near 100%.

5. Miami has the more trustworthy shooters
This series could very well come down to which team's role players are hitting their three-pointers. And looking at the respective resumes, it's difficult to not side with the Heat. They haven't shot well in the playoffs so far -- but let's not forget how well they shot in the Finals last year.

When the lights got bright, they seemingly couldn't miss. For example, take Battier. Like this season, Battier struggled in the Eastern Conference portion of the bracket in 2012. But come the Finals, he shot 57% from deep. His has hit less than one-fourth of his threes so far in these playoffs but I wouldn't be surprised if he snaps out of that slump in the Finals.

Battier, Ray Allen, Mike Miller … those are some of the players you'd most want taking pressure shots.

The Spurs on paper have very good shooters but is anyone really confident in Bonner in the Finals? How about Kawhi Leonard after spending so much of his energy on D? Green doesn't exactly have a sparkling resume in this department. Ginobili has been streaky -- to put it kindly. Neal? Yeah, no.

6. The Heat have LeBron James
More often than not, the winner of a playoff series is the team with the best player. LeBron James is that man. He's not only the best basketball player in the universe, he's a top five talent ever and he's in his absolute prime. Which players in history would you rather have on your team than 2013 LeBron? Personally, my list probably begins and ends with Michael Jordan.

I don't think I need to explain how great LeBron is right now. When the best athlete in the NBA is also the best passer in the league, the best finisher and now suddenly one of the best shooters, that's a recipe for a monster. Add in his experience and his newfound maturity and it's going to take a Herculean effort to beat his team four times in a series.

Don't get me wrong, Parker is damn good. I've called him the second most dominating player in the league when he's healthy. But there's a wide gulf between first and second on that list. Current LeBron is in that class of superstar that is impossible to stop regardless of defensive gameplan. Prime Jordan, Prime Duncan and Prime Shaq are three other examples.

Parker, for as great as he has become, lacks that final trait to move him up into that rarefied air. You can slow Parker if you make that your team's No. 1 objective. You can't slow LeBron. That will, unfortunately, prove to be a gigantic difference.



Again, I pray to all that is holy and/or mighty that I'm wrong. Against the Grizzlies I proved to be dead wrong about Parker (I thought he was hurt; turned out he had the best series of his life) and Splitter (I wasn't sold with his toughness in the middle; turned out toughness wasn't an issue at all -- he was great in that regard). Hopefully I'm wrong about a couple of the above items. I would be the happiest S.O.B. on the planet if I'm wrong again.

But if the series plays out like I suspect it to, I see Heat in five. Miami wins the first two games. Spurs win Game 3 after Pop replaces Green in the starting lineup with Ginobili. Heat win Game 4 in heartbreaking fashion (for us Spurs fans) and then close out S.A. in Game 5 with their whole team hitting on all cylinders at that point.

That's my honest view. Let's hope the actual result makes me look stupid again.

[G-Nob]

Thank you so much for this.

[TrainOfThought5]

fuk yo reasons, clown

[GaryJohnston]

Kori has 21 reasons you're wrong...

[The Reckoning]

keep up the good work

[Kool Bob Love]

San Antonio Spurs 2013 NBA champs U.O.E.N.O

[jaffies]

I like when you're wrong.

[TheGreatYacht]

I'm new to theses boards. Is this the so called "reverse jinx" and "timvp" that everyone has been talking about for the past week?

[Spursmania]

Awesome anti-jinx thread

[baseline bum]

I think Wade still looks a little iffy, and because of that the Spurs might steal one of the first 2 in Miami. Unfortunately, I think the Heat are a way better team and will probably win 2 of 3 in San Antonio and then close it out Game 6 in Miami.

[Mugen]

thank you, timvp.

[Kool Bob Love]

:downspin:

[timtonymanu]

Gonna have to agree with LJ, again. Although I'm thinking Heat in 6. I think the Spurs are capable of stealing a road game and will win a home game, or lose Game 1 and 2 and win two home games.

Looking back, it was probably silly to think the Spurs would lose to Memphis, but it is not silly nor unreasonable to think Miami is going to beat the Spurs.

The Spurs really have to be playing perfect basketball to beat the Heat. I'm hoping I am dead wrong too. I really do want to see the Spurs win a 5th title, but Miami is just too much of a match-up problem for them.

100%duncan, get in here.

[baseline bum]

I have never seen LJ make jinx picks, and I have been reading his series breakdowns since the 1999-00 playoffs.

[FvckMavs]

Don't want to read but thanks for the good job.

[baseline bum]

But seriously, this is going to have to be like Russell on his last legs outlasting Wilt, Baylor, and West for an historic upset in Game 7 of the 1969 Finals (the one Russell said he couldn't wait to see the Lakers have to take their celebration balloons down one at a time). Of course, Wilt was also acting like a spoiled drama queen in that series; don't really see James pulling a Rodman like that tbh.

[Libri]

I have never seen LJ make jinx picks, and I have been reading his series breakdowns since the 1999-00 playoffs.

Well, we will see if he has more power than Lefty.

[hater]

Awesome anti-jinx thread


I'm new to theses boards. Is this the so called "reverse jinx" and "timvp" that everyone has been talking about for the past week?


:lol at people believing the Memphis thread was a reverse jinx thread

it really doesn't work if originally it was not a jinx thread.

but let's hope the jinx Gods don't realize the Memphis one wasn't a jinx thread

[AFBlue]

If the Spurs stick to high PnR every time down the court then Miami's D has a shot, but I don't see the Spurs' O as being that predictable and repetitive. I think they learned from OKC series last year. Agree that this is a bad matchup for Splitter though, so hopefully he proves us both wrong.

[baseline bum]

So what kind of odds do you put on this series, LJ? I have been waffling between 85-15 Heat and 75-25 Heat, but leaning more towards the latter.

[hater]

I have never seen LJ make jinx picks, and I have been reading his series breakdowns since the 1999-00 playoffs.



I don't think I've ever wanted the Spurs to win a series as much as this forthcoming series against the Heat.



unfortunately timvps ramblings are actually more accurate than not this time :(


my servers are still running scenarios and Heat in 5 is the most common so far :(

[Calispursfan11]

Timvp going emo to avoid disappointment once again tbh. Not cool timvp. The Heat are not gods from Olympus. They're just some old punks with one great player. Minus LeBron, the Spurs are superior to all remaining 11 Heat. You will be wrong anti-jinx or not.

[Floyd Pacquiao]

The Spurs are a team of destiny. They'll find a way to win...

Believe

[hater]

plus timvp just positioning himself to a win-win scenario

Spurs lose - he redeem himself

Spurs win - he is happy and it was all a jinx after all. move along


:lmao

[I. Hustle]

I can sleep now

[pikkiwoki]

Excellent, excellent. Now all we need is a scathing rebuttal from roycrikside (http://www.spurstalk.com/forums/member.php?u=9378) for the prophecy to be complete.

[timvp]

Your'e a huge big headed douche.

Sounds painful, tbh.


So what kind of odds do you put on this series, LJ? I have been waffling between 85-15 Heat and 75-25 Heat, but leaning more towards the latter.

75-25 is reasonable. Probably between that and 70-30.

Which, big picture, are odds we would have all taken at the beginning of the season.

[timvp]

plus timvp just positioning himself to a win-win scenario

Spurs lose - he redeem himself

Hate to break it to you but you don't get a ring for being "right" on a message board, tbh.

[benefactor]

Greys with pitchforks are coming.

Anyway, Spurs in 7.

[hater]

Hate to break it to you but you don't get a ring for being "right" on a message board, tbh.

hey I'll be sad right next to you bro

[Budkin]

Final-ly!

[DPG21920]

Why do people keep acting like West punished MIA? He was pretty average (at best) offensively. He was a solid Bosh defender on the perimeter and does have more mobility on that end than Tiago or Tim probably (on the perimeter), but he was not an efficient nor consistent threat on offense.

Tiago plays the Hibbert role on offense somewhat (he won't score consistently like Hibbert obviously) but as long as Tim can out produce West (which he should quite easily do) the front court scoring/efficiency should hopefully be a wash. If that's the case, then the Spurs perimeter players have to be better than Indys (shooting, turnovers, ball movement) and offensively Spurs should be ok (even with a diminished PnR offense due to MIA's PnR defense).

While Hibbert may be better than Duncan at protecting the rim, I certainly don't think it's a wide margin (especially in money time like the finals) and the Spurs also have another 7 footer in Tiago to help (where INDY did not).

[Holt's Cat]

Spurs execute too well to be rolled by Miami. This goes 6 or 7.

James and Solestra are not Jordan and Jackson. Pop has forgotten more than Spolestra has ever known and will remember enough to guide the Spurs to the series win.

[DPG21920]

For every difference in INDY vs SA, I think SA can make it up in other areas. For example: Offensive rebounding. Yes, INDY is much better, but many of those extra possessions were negated by TO's. If the Spurs can cut down the TO's (which they should) that bridges the gap in some of the offensive rebounds.

Things of that nature, plus the fact SA is better, leads me to believe that SA will not lose in 5. Will they lose the series? Likely, but not in 5 and they have a solid shot a winning. Spurs will win one of the first two games IMO, likely game 1.

[lefty]

Timvp's takes on basketball are great most of the time TBH


But I have to disagree here

Why would the Spurs have to replicate the Pacers?

I fucking hope we dont play like them vs Miami


Heat in 5? :lmao

Timvp trying not to have his hopes set to high, so he wont be disappointed if we indeed lose in 5

[hater]

For every difference in INDY vs SA, I think SA can make it up in other areas. For example: Offensive rebounding. Yes, INDY is much better, but many of those extra possessions were negated by TO's. If the Spurs can cut down the TO's (which they should) that bridges the gap in some of the offensive rebounds.

Things of that nature, plus the fact SA is better, leads me to believe that SA will not lose in 5. Will they lose the series? Likely, but not in 5 and they have a solid shot a winning. Spurs will win one of the first two games IMO, likely game 1.

sure but timvp is right on that Heat were "coasting"

although I will not say coasting but more like going through the motions.

Now they smell the championship, the cameras and spotlights are on. If you think you going to see the ECF Heat you are in for a rude awakening.

[daheatin4]

fucking right when a big homer like this guy thinks its over in 5 I guarantee it's going be over in 4

[Holt's Cat]

Not to mention that James has been the best talent in a Finals before and lost twice. Finally last year he lives up partially to the hype and now he's the greatest ever. Right.

[timvp]

Why do people keep acting like West punished MIA? He was pretty average (at best) offensively. West struggled with his jumper when he had a big defending him. When he Battier or another SF on him, he went to work.

[baseline bum]

You've been a cliff jumping mo for the last 3 years now.

LOL, he picked the Spurs to beat OKC in 5 last WCF.

[timtonymanu]

Time for a Isn't Game 1 A Must Win? thread.

IMO, the Spurs would be in better position if they can win tomorrow as opposed to a Game 2.

[DPG21920]

sure but timvp is right on that Heat were "coasting"

although I will not say coasting but more like going through the motions.

Now they smell the championship, the cameras and spotlights are on. If you think you going to see the ECF Heat you are in for a rude awakening.

I agree they were coasting. I've tried to explain that to those that watch the Bulls and INDY steal a game in MIA in the beginning of the series and think they can beat the Heat. They are not overrated, their PnR defense is studly, but the Spurs have shown a solid ability to score outside the PnR. It's just that the PnR offense has been sick so far this playoffs.

MIA in 5 though?

[Floyd Pacquiao]

Howard the duck going HAM

[DPG21920]

West struggled with his jumper when he had a big defending him. When he Battier or another SF on him, he went to work.

Well, considering MIA went fairly small often, and West shot a very below average %, I would say he was not that effective over 7 games IMO. Tiago/Tim should be much more efficient. Not only that, TnT are so much better at passing the ball than Hibbert/West it's not even funny.

[pikkiwoki]

coasting :lol

[Budkin]

http://mitalk.umich.edu/files/mitalk/field/image/PTSD_Trauma.jpg

[hater]

LOL, he picked the Spurs to beat OKC in 5 last WCF.

really? I had missed that :lol

[Robz4000]

I agree with all points but that the Spurs' bigs can't hurt the Heat as much as Indy. They won't through their physicality and offensive rebounding, but with their passing and dual rim-protection. Heat in 6 tho unless Manu steps through a time machine.

[SpurPadre]

If Splitter looks overmatched by the end of Game 1 or maybe even by halftime, would Pop consider starting Diaw over him?

[TheGoldStandard]

I have this funny feeling that The Spurs will win this in 6 games and will boggle everyone's mind because they will play like they always play. The heat will win a game by 14 and the spurs will win one by 9 and the rest will be 3 or 4 point wins. The Spurs want this, they will play team ball and players will make shots.

The pacers comparisons are not even close to what the spurs play. The Pacers play physical and decent D but they couldn't shoot for shit. Pop isn't going to let the Heat get on a run and not call a timeout to kill momentum. He will make adjustments during halftime plus I think our shooters are prepared now. For all the comparisons to pick n roll defense to the events that happened last year and how the heat play against it we had opportunities, we have them every night its just knocking down shots. The spurs have a great chance to win this series if every "other" contributes when they're on the floor not just scoring but defense, spacing, passing etc. The Miami Heat are not immortal and impossible to beat it just takes a sustained effort.

[weeks]

what concerns me is that we just haven't really beaten the heat.
i think it will mindfuck our young guys especially

[lefty]

The Spurs dont need to get inside every single time

That was true for the Pacers, and Hibbert should have gotten more touches

But our offense is more versatile, we have a top penetrating PG, better 3 pt shooting, better spacing, and more ecperience and basketball IQ than the Pacers


Not to mention that Pop shits on Vogel and Spo (both suck at making adjutments TBH) combined


Im not worried

Spurs in 7

[N0 LyF3 ScRuB]

IN FIVE?

Are you serious? You have no faith at all in the Spurs. Didn't you pick the Grizz, Warriors AND Lakers? We got Bill Simmons over here.

[DarrinS]

Didn't you also say Memphis would kick Spurs' ass?

Something smells

[DPG21920]

I also like that guys like Kawhi and Danny have hit big shots throughout the year (game winning shots where Pop called their numbers) and learned how to contribute even when their shot isn't falling.

[Holt's Cat]

Manu needs to have a big series. Miami will obviously work on forcing Parker to give up the rock. Someone will need to attack the rim and create. This also would be a good time for Diaw to wake up.

[N0 LyF3 ScRuB]

AND I HATE THE COASTING EXCUSE!


Yeah, the Heat have been not trying their hardest to win LOL. Ever come across your mind that Wade may actually be going over the hill? That "27 game win streak" was against NOOBS in the East mostly... that doesn't translate against the teams in the playoffs... ESPECIALLY when the Heat haven't even seen the big three... Only Bosh has.

[tmtcsc]

Miami is a respectable and formidable opponent but you are going Waaaaay overboard with the love for them. Spurs will handle the drama queens in impressive fashion.

We have the better coach, more experienced players and (I believe) more determination to win. There's no house money here. No one will be happy with a good effort and a loss. Screw all that. The Spurs are here to win and get the job done. They are rested, healthy and prepared for what Miami will throw at them. Somewhere, deep down, the Heat players think that they'll get to this position for years to come. The Spurs know these chances are special.

If we play our best and avoid injury, we'll win. No excuses. I love that we are the underdogs in this series and I love that we are starting out on the road. Your points are valid about the match-ups but I'll put my faith in Pop and Co. coming up with an effective strategy. F*CK the cHeat.

[DarrinS]

Two things that give the Heat fits -- quick, slashing PG's and quality bigs that can pass

HELLO?

[~Sweetmelody~]

Kori has 21 reasons you're wrong...

I was already feeling down reading tim's post but this made me LOL and I could breath again :p:

[FromWayDowntown]

Which, big picture, are odds we would have all taken at the beginning of the season.

I'd have taken being in the Finals and having the chance that just being a participant brings. Even if the odds are 99-1. It's better than not having a chance because the Spurs had been eliminated. For whatever reason, I don't feel -- at this point -- that losing this series would be deflating or even disappointing. I hope they win, no doubt. But this season has been great and just seeing these guys back in the Finals feels like a dream.

FTH anyway.

[DarrinS]

Massive amount of pressure on Heat right now

[Calispursfan11]

Timvp is crossing from mildly pessimistic/realist Spurfan to delusional with these cliff-jumping threads. Snap out of it, man!

[lil'mo]

Pop is gonna replace green with Ginobili in GAME 3 because they lose the first two away????!?

:lmao

[baseline bum]

Two things that give the Heat fits -- quick, slashing PG's and quality bigs that can pass

HELLO?

They gave Westbrook fits last Finals, other than that one good game he had in Miami. I want what you want, but this will be an enormous upset if the Spurs can pull it off.

[Splits]

A point which nobody has spoken about, I keep repeating, and should be a deciding factor:

Chris Bosh is a career 28% 3pt shooter from distance. He shot 28% from three this regular season on 1 attempt per game. He has averaged 2 attempts per game and shot 15/31 in the postseason.

1) if he's doubled his attempts from 3 in the postseason, something is wrong with the Heat offensive execution

2) he will most likely revert to the mean. If he doesn't, Spurs are fucked. But all statistical algorithms say he will

Put that in you computer, hater

[2centsworth]

I hope the team doesn't feel satisfied because its going to require guts, determination and faith to win this series. If they are just content to be in the finals then Heat in 5 is very reasonable.

[GaryJohnston]

I was already feeling down reading tim's post but this made me LOL and I could breath again :p:

Lol. I read Kori's first, then timvps. I'll side with her!

[hater]

A point which nobody has spoken about, I keep repeating, and should be a deciding factor:

Chris Bosh is a career 28% 3pt shooter from distance. He shot 28% from three this regular season on 1 attempt per game. He has averaged 2 attempts per game and shot 15/31 in the postseason.

1) if he's doubled his attempts from 3 in the postseason, something is wrong with the Heat offensive execution

2) he will most likely revert to the mean. If he doesn't, Spurs are fucked. But all statistical algorithms say he will

Put that in you computer, hater

my computer also says Bosh shoots over 56% vs Spurs in his career

he shot 30s vs. Indy

[spurQ]

"This"
TheGoldStandard;6627532]I have this funny feeling that The Spurs will win this in 6 games and will boggle everyone's mind because they will play like they always play. The heat will win a game by 14 and the spurs will win one by 9 and the rest will be 3 or 4 point wins. The Spurs want this, they will play team ball and players will make shots.

The pacers comparisons are not even close to what the spurs play. The Pacers play physical and decent D but they couldn't shoot for shit. Pop isn't going to let the Heat get on a run and not call a timeout to kill momentum. He will make adjustments during halftime plus I think our shooters are prepared now. For all the comparisons to pick n roll defense to the events that happened last year and how the heat play against it we had opportunities, we have them every night its just knocking down shots. The spurs have a great chance to win this series if every "other" contributes when they're on the floor not just scoring but defense, spacing, passing etc. The Miami Heat are not immortal and impossible to beat it just takes a sustained effort.[/QUOTE]

[absoloot66]

There's no house money here. No one will be happy with a good effort and a loss. Screw all that. The Spurs are here to win and get the job done. They are rested, healthy and prepared for what Miami will throw at them. Somewhere, deep down, the Heat players think that they'll get to this position for years to come. The Spurs know these chances are special.


TRUTH! Well said!

[DarrinS]

Out of ALL the teams that could possibly match up with the Heat, I'd say the Spurs are the matchup they absolutely didn't want.

Spurs in 6

[capek]

http://www.lolbrary.com/content/760/fuck-this-thread-reaction-gif-45760.gif

[hater]

I'll be happy if Spurs make a good showing in the Finals. Even if they lose in 5, if it's 5 hard fought games. I'm happy with that. Agree Spurs are playing with house money and are crashing into the Finals party.

If Spurs get ran out of the building in 4 thou. I will be beyond pissed.

[Mugen]

Some thoughts/questions:

1. Does Indy really have more versatile defenders than the Spurs? I count three that could guard multiple positions (Hill, Lance, George) and Hill wasn't much of a factor defensively in that series. Spurs have Green/Leonard that match up pretty well with Wade/James (as much as you can "match up" with those two) and Manu/Boris/Tiago are capable of being very solid defenders. Granted, Manu has been bad so far these playoffs but I think he can do a decent job on the Heat wings if needed.

2. The Pacers were able to generate open looks despite having George Hill at the point, two subpar passing bigs, and prob the biggest black hole in the league in Lance. They had success with the PnR with Hibbert and i think Tiago/Tim are superior PnR players to Roy tbh. There were a plethora of offensive rebounds for the Pacers because they can't shoot nor execute that well in the half court, two areas where the Spurs are much better. James/Wade are obviously athletic freaks that can recover well but they don't have the length that OKC had with Thabo/Durant/Ibaka/Perk. I think the Spurs are going to get a lot of good looks but i do agree that the Heat have the more proven shooters. I just feel better about Green/Leonard and even Bonner based on this postseason run.

3. The Spurs were a pretty damn good team midseason when Parker was healthy and they had the best record in the league tbh. Maybe not 27 win streak good but the difference between that Spurs team and the Heat team during their run wasn't astronomical. I just think this Spurs team is a lot closer to the midseason Spurs team than this Heat team is to their 27 win streak form. Maybe it's coasting or maybe it's a case of the 2012 Spursitis of blowing their load too early on a massive streak.

4. LeBron is the best player in the world. He's easily the best at a lot of things in basketball but I'm not ready to crown him the best shooter in the league. I think the Spurs will do a good job of limiting his drives and force him to take pull ups and long 2s. He very well could hit a high percentage of them but he doesn't yet strike fear in that regard like a Durant or Curry tbh.

I think its 60/40 Heat win the series but that's because we really haven't seen these two teams play each other. I think the Spurs are peaking at the right time while the Heat are looking tired/weary.

Respect your take but I think you might be wrong for the second series in a row tbh. Here's hoping.

[DarrinS]

They gave Westbrook fits last Finals, other than that one good game he had in Miami. I want what you want, but this will be an enormous upset if the Spurs can pull it off.

I'm just gonna have to disagree that it would be an upset, much less an "enormous" upset, but maybe you're screwing with me -- maybe the OP is too.

[Russ]

Manu and Neal will have to play out of their minds (plus those already playing well), but I think the Spurs got a shot.

Who woulda thought Dallas, of all teams, would beat these guys?

Can Duncan/Splitter play like Chandler or Hibbert? I agree that rim protection will be a big key.

But if our two can defend inside, we know they can score more than Chandler or Hibbert.

If the Spurs can frustrate LeBron, all else will flow from that. He's not unflappable according to history.

[Budkin]

Miami is a respectable and formidable opponent but you are going Waaaaay overboard with the love for them. Spurs will handle the drama queens in impressive fashion.

We have the better coach, more experienced players and (I believe) more determination to win. There's no house money here. No one will be happy with a good effort and a loss. Screw all that. The Spurs are here to win and get the job done. They are rested, healthy and prepared for what Miami will throw at them. Somewhere, deep down, the Heat players think that they'll get to this position for years to come. The Spurs know these chances are special.

If we play our best and avoid injury, we'll win. No excuses. I love that we are the underdogs in this series and I love that we are starting out on the road. Your points are valid about the match-ups but I'll put my faith in Pop and Co. coming up with an effective strategy. F*CK the cHeat.

tmtcsc with a take that is almost as good as his avatar... almost.

[timtonymanu]

tmtcsc with a take that is almost as good as his avatar... almost.

Do you still think Spurs in 5?

[spursince#99]

1 reason I don't like this forum. Pessimism is not the way to go regardless of what you feel if that team is really YOUR team.

[Splits]

my computer also says Bosh shoots over 56% vs Spurs in his career

he shot 30s vs. Indy

Time to update your database from 56% to 44%. Please update us all with your supercomputer superfriends results.

http://i829.photobucket.com/albums/zz212/akelch/boshspurs.png

[timvp]

I'd have taken being in the Finals and having the chance that just being a participant brings. Even if the odds are 99-1. It's better than not having a chance because the Spurs had been eliminated. For whatever reason, I don't feel -- at this point -- that losing this series would be deflating or even disappointing. I hope they win, no doubt. But this season has been great and just seeing these guys back in the Finals feels like a dream.

FTH anyway.I'm not sure how a loss would feel. In theory, we should be somewhat satisfied because the Spurs had a great season regardless of what happens in this series.

But maybe losing in the Finals brings a whole new level of hurt. Lakers fan, get in here and fill us in :lol


Out of ALL the teams that could possibly match up with the Heat, I'd say the Spurs are the matchup they absolutely didn't want.

Spurs in 6I do agree that the Spurs are the best matchup for the Heat out of any team in the West -- I've said that since the Harden trade. After Harden got traded to the Rockets, the Spurs peaking at the right time was the only chance for the West to beat the Heat.

[lefty]

Being trolled by Timp :cry

[dbreiden83080]

Spurs are screwed..

LJ laying the truth on us....

[Russ]

I'm not sure how a loss would feel. In theory, we should be somewhat satisfied because the Spurs had a great season regardless of what happens in this series.

But maybe losing in the Finals brings a whole new level of hurt. Lakers fan, get in here and fill us in :lol

If the Spurs lose, it's like none of the good in these playoffs ever happened. Erased forever.

They were always too old, too slow, we knew it all along. :)

[gameFACE]

I've honestly had zero expectations for a championship since 2010. But my gut instinct says it's possible. Spurs in 6. That they've reached the finals is pretty sweet.

[DarrinS]

Being trolled by Timp :cry

This

[Spursfanfromafar]

I would agree with Timvp if the Heat are facing the Spurs of 2011-12.

Unfortunately for the Heat, they are facing the Spurs of 2012-13, a team that rotates better on defense and is more well oiled on offense - relies more on back-screens, hammers, misdirections and bigs' play than last season.

Seriously, the only area where the Spurs are clearly deficient is in defending Lebron and that too because they dont' have a backup for Kawhi.

I actually like Splitter this season than the previous one. He did a good job of bodying up and offensive rebounding when it presented itself against a team like the Grizzlies and it stands to reason that he would do the same against a weaker Heat frontline. He has timed his roll runs very well and the Heat will be worried if Battier is supposed to be the big guarding the rolls.

The Heat's biggest strength is that it will finally unleash the driving Lebron James who was mostly absent in the Pacers series. But I trust Pop in designing his help defense and Duncan to be smart enough to tackle this in the long - 6 game -run. Thats right.

Spurs in 6.

[baseline bum]

Manu and Neal will have to play out of their minds (plus those already playing well), but I think the Spurs got a shot.

Who woulda thought Dallas, of all teams, would beat these guys?

Can Duncan/Splitter play like Chandler or Hibbert? I agree that rim protection will be a big key.

But if our two can defend inside, we know they can score more than Chandler or Hibbert.

If the Spurs can frustrate LeBron, all else will flow from that. He's not unflappable according to history.

I had Dallas beating them in the 11 Finals. The 13 Heat are worlds better than the 11 Heat, who had no outside shooting other than Miller. Now they have Allen and Battier to throw in the mix, LeBron can now hit the three, and Chalmers has become a significantly better shooter too in that period.

[dbreiden83080]

I'm new to theses boards. Is this the so called "reverse jinx" and "timvp" that everyone has been talking about for the past week?

Just go with it....

[T Park]

I just don't buy the coasting thing. They looked terrible vs Milwaukee, Milwaukee was just so horrible they couldn't win. Chicago legitametly could've won their series and Indiana definitely should've won the series and IMO they were the better team. Plus the Pacers had ZERo bench. The Spurs at least have Manu, Diaw. Indiana had ZILCH. Also I don't see Parker nor Manu just disappearing like Stephenson and Hill did.

[Slutter McGee]

All are good points except for the coasting excuse. Lebron and Wade are too big of competitors for me to buy that. They simply aren't as good a team as everybody thinks. That being said, they are still the best team in this series because of one player. Heat in 6 or 7. Duncan Parker and Manu know this is probably their last shot together. They will put up a fight.

Slutter McGee

[baseline bum]

I'm just gonna have to disagree that it would be an upset, much less an "enormous" upset, but maybe you're screwing with me -- maybe the OP is too.

Not really messing around. They completely destroyed Westbrook last Finals. I mean, I don't think they're going to have anywhere near that success with Parker since they actually have to play the pass with him, but their perimeter D is elite. I do think they'll have worlds of trouble with Duncan inside.

[baseline bum]

I just don't buy the coasting thing. They looked terrible vs Milwaukee, Milwaukee was just so horrible they couldn't win. Chicago legitametly could've won their series and Indiana definitely should've won the series and IMO they were the better team. Plus the Pacers had ZERo bench. The Spurs at least have Manu, Diaw. Indiana had ZILCH. Also I don't see Parker nor Manu just disappearing like Stephenson and Hill did.

People said the same thing last year and then they just murdered OKC in 4 straight after dropping Game 1.

[TheyCallMePro]

Timvp back from the dead...

Should have stayed dead tbh.

[Russ]

I had Dallas beating them in the 11 Finals. The 13 Heat are worlds better than the 11 Heat, who had no outside shooting other than Miller. Now they have Allen and Battier to throw in the mix, LeBron can now hit the three, and Chalmers has become a significantly better shooter too in that period.

But the '11 Heat had a tougher East to get thru to the Finals.

The East this year was a joke.

And the Spurs' road to Finals was equally ridiculous, never facing more than a 5 seed.

Both teams are untested up to now.

Wade is much lesser player than he was in '11 and Bosh has regressed as well (to put it nicely). Birdman is a key contributor -- what does that say?

[DarrinS]

I think this series is going to be determined by "the others". I think our 3 can match their 3 -- and I'm saying KL is part of that big 3 instead of Manu. KL has silently been a rock for us. If Manu's game emerges, that's just gravy, tbh.

[dwayne shintzius]

So timvp and his wife offers a 1k prize to a spurs fan who guesses the right exact score and in how many games then explains to all of us why he's willing to provide such a prize bc in his eyes we're done in 5. Very eloquent

[dbreiden83080]

People said the same thing last year and then they just murdered OKC in 4 straight after dropping Game 1.

And you attribute that to coasting? The Heat didn't let Boston put them in a 3-2 hole. Harden did nothing in the finals after killing us in the WCF had he showed up who knows? The Heat were 2-2 with the Pacers who had outplayed them in game 1 and 2. They were not coasting all the way till game 7. Wade is legit hurt which is putting shitloads of pressure on Lebron to carry it himself.. The Heat needed rest because of injuries so the incentive would be to finish teams off quick.. Not coast...

[ElNono]

I'm in the "we're playing with house money" boat... but give credit to the Spurs defense shining again since Game 3 against the dubs. When you play that kind of defense, I don't care who you're playing against, you always have a shot.

I also get the feeling both TD and Manu really understand this is likely their last realistic shot at the LOB... so I'm anxious to watch what both bring to the table, especially TD, tbh...

At this stage, I'm just going to sit back and enjoy the show... I obviously would rather see the Spurs win it all, but I can't be mad if they don't make it with what they've achieved this season.

[timvp]

So timvp and his wife offers a 1k prize to a spurs fan who guesses the right exact score and in how many games then explains to all of us why he's willing to provide such a prize bc in his eyes we're done in 5. Very eloquent

That was her idea and she thinks the Spurs will win in 6. And if you read the thread, we're out one extra dollar if Spurs lose, tbh.

[DarrinS]

Not really messing around. They completely destroyed Westbrook last Finals. I mean, I don't think they're going to have anywhere near that success with Parker since they actually have to play the pass with him, but their perimeter D is elite. I do think they'll have worlds of trouble with Duncan inside.

Parker is really good at spitting traps and passing, so I thing he'll be ok.

[Spur|n|Austin]

This series is over before it even starts... Good season Spurs, it was fun while it lasted.

[DAF86]

I agree: Heat in 5 or 6. And I agree with all of the points except number 4. I don't expect Wade and Bosh to magically turn it on, at least not consistently.

[T Park]

People said the same thing last year and then they just murdered OKC in 4 straight after dropping Game 1.


I don't think they're as good as last year. The supporting cast IMO isn't as good. They were consistent, this team isn't.

[hater]

I don't think they're as good as last year. The supporting cast IMO isn't as good. They were consistent, this team isn't.

if I remember correctly the old Celtics team took them to 7 last year

that's not really a model of consistency

[dbreiden83080]

Wade last year in the playoffs

23 PPG on 47%

This year

14 PPG on 45 %

A steady dose of KL won't bring those numbers up any...

[T Park]

And you attribute that to coasting? The Heat didn't let Boston put them in a 3-2 hole. Harden did nothing in the finals after killing us in the WCF had he showed up who knows? The Heat were 2-2 with the Pacers who had outplayed them in game 1 and 2. They were not coasting all the way till game 7. Wade is legit hurt which is putting shitloads of pressure on Lebron to carry it himself.. The Heat needed rest because of injuries so the incentive would be to finish teams off quick.. Not coast...

Pretty much this.

[Bill_Brasky]

Pop vs Spo.

Ability of this team to make in game adjustments, etc.

[T Park]

if I remember correctly the old Celtics team took them to 7 last year

that's not really a model of consistency


Boston was a heartbeat from the Finals. Again though, Battier, Haslem, Miller were all better last year than they are this year. Only supporting player who I would say is better is Mario Chalmers.

[DarrinS]

I like our chances

Done with this thread.

[superjames1992]

Timvp with the jinxing goods. :tu

[timtonymanu]

Timvp with the jinxing goods. :tu

This also needs a prediction from you since your track record has been good in the playoffs. :toast

[dbreiden83080]

I like our chances

Done with this thread.

I do as well and game 1 is not going to tell us much either way IMO.. Even if the Spurs come out flat and get blown out, this series will feature plenty of adjustments and is going to be a long one IMO..

[~Sweetmelody~]

Lol. I read Kori's first, then timvps. I'll side with her!

Same here!

I guess you can talk numbers all day and a million reasons why they should win or loose but I am just thrilled the big three are in the finals one more time.

[math]

Timvp, you threw away your credibility with your previous doom and gloom. If you were that wrong about the WCF , why would anyone think you know what you are talking about now. You want to protect yourself from emotional pain if they lose. That is the entire basis for the tenor and point of view represented in this post. This is a sad sight to see. Cherry pick and color your glasses darkly if you wish, but your post is far from compelling.

The Heat are coasting - lol . This is a theory attempting to deflect against the actual evidence of the playoffs. It is an attempt to explain away what facts we do have. This , therefore, is evidence supporting the contention that you are choosing this position because you want it - not based upon evident truths. Mate, you've exposed yourself and thrown away your credibility in prognostication. Nothing justifies this - trying to test for who is likely to cliff jump like Kori suggested.

I have posted thousands of times here and was never banned - simply took time off and lost my log in and had changed email...

Spurs have the best post season record and have played far better than the Heat this post season. The Heat peaked earlier and are playing mediocre basketball now. Chicago ? Milwaukee ? Pacers in 7? They are weakest where we are strongest . If Tony Allen and Memphis could not slow Tony, Miami has no chance. They cannot guard TP or TD. Wade and Bosh have been no shows throughout the playoffs. Suggesting they will play very well now is an act of faith contradicted by their recent play. Without the other Superfriends, LeBron can't beat the Spurs. LeBron and 4 guys cannot beat the Spurs. Beating the hedge leaves a 3 on 2 or 2 on 1 score and it means our 3 pt shooters are open. Tony has seen every degfense intended to stop him.

Lol Heat in 5.
Yea, heat in 5 like Grizz are overwhelming favorites.

[siraulo23]

i have the same prediction

mainly because the heat can shut down the spurs offense and i dunno how the spurs are gonna slow down the heat

and i think this time your prediction will hold up

[HI-FI]

The Spurs dont need to get inside every single time

That was true for the Pacers, and Hibbert should have gotten more touches

But our offense is more versatile, we have a top penetrating PG, better 3 pt shooting, better spacing, and more ecperience and basketball IQ than the Pacers


Not to mention that Pop shits on Vogel and Spo (both suck at making adjutments TBH) combined


Im not worried

Spurs in 7

i agree that the comparison to the Pacers is kind of stupid. Any team with Lance Stephenson in its starting lineup shouldn't be compared to us imho.

still, kind of shocked to see you posting this. please tell me you got one final jinx thread in you....

[spurraider21]

timvp disqualifying himself from the $1000 giveaway tbh

rules clearly state you must pick the spurs :lol

[Legacy]

I like our chances

Done with this thread.

Agreed. The End. :lol

[Danny.Zhu]

Heat in 6 imho.

[BatManu20]

Been saying Miami in 6. I'm sticking with it. The rule of 'the team with the best player in the series usually wins' won't change, esp when it's the best player in the world and a top 2-3 player all-time.. there's just no answer for Lebron and co and all the talent they have on that team. And all those shooters. I expect a valiant effort from our boys, but our perfect Finals record will be no more unfortunately imo.

[TheGoldStandard]

There are so many points to make about this series because it's really a tough one to analyze but there are some key points that I have to mention.

Pace of the game: Miami isn't going to grind the Spurs down, it's the spurts of doom that make Miami dangerous. They are capable of creating turnovers and putting up points in a hurry if you do not execute properly. The Spurs are going to have to be on point with passing and spacing and not overreacting. The Spurs won't quit though, they've overcome huge deficits before so a lead isn't safe for either team. Whoever puts together the more sustained effort both starters and bench players will have the edge and in my opinion this will be San Antonio.

Miami is like a Heavyweight and they've gone some long hard rounds in the eastern conference to get to this level. Now, a lot of people will say that they've been coasting and they're just waiting to see Miami have there breakout but I don't know if that will happen. We see sparks, flurries and moments where they look like the dominant team that had that 27 game win streak but it's not a sustained effort over 7 games. I think they have slowed down some because of the physical play and they're all capable of having bad games. I really think the Spurs will frustrate them and I think that a few games can be stolen by San Antonio.

I've picked San Antonio in 6 just because I think the Spurs can match up, they'll get more support from the "others" and we won't give up. The Pacers had every opportunity to win that series but there offense was so inept and they settled way too much but that is lack of experience and lack of getting coached up.

[mercos]

Two flaws I find with this reasoning. One is that Miami is one of the greatest teams ever. I don't think they are one of the top five teams since I started watching basketball in 1995. Hell, I'd take any of the three Bulls championship teams from the late 90s, and the Spurs 99 title team over the Heat in a heartbeat. They had a very good year in an NBA that is weaker than it has been in years. Lebron is a great player, and Wade is really good, but that team is far from all time great.

The second thing I find to be incorrect is that Miami is coasting. I don't believe that for a second. Most of Miami's struggles have been due to Wade's injured knee. His aggression is basically gone, and that makes Miami a totally different team. He showed in game 7 that he can turn it on for small runs, maybe even a whole game here or there. I doubt he can play at a high level for an entire series though. Given how good Lebron is, the Heat may only need a vintage performance or two for the Heat to get past the Spurs.

I totally agree on the pick and roll analysis. That has been my biggest concern since the Spurs advanced to the Finals. In the second game the two teams played against each other this year, the Heat made the Spurs offense look like absolute garbage with their aggressive double teaming. Tony Parker was just coming off injury in that game, and probably shouldn't have been playing, but time will tell if that makes a difference. OKC was able to slow a healthy Tony Parker with that strategy, so the Heat might be able to as well.

[baseline bum]

timvp disqualifying himself from the $1000 giveaway tbh

rules clearly state you must pick the spurs :lol

He's gonna give the money to himself? :lol

[bayareaspursfan]

Depressing..

[Keepin' it real]

LeBron is overrated. Although I will concede he's the best player in the NBA today, that says less about him and more about the shallow talent pool in 2013. Let me put it this way: I'm way more optimistic about the Spurs facing LeBron than I ever was about the Spurs facing Kobe.

[Biggems]

what concerns me the most are 2 things.......the refs totally coddling flop city and one or two of the role players shooting lights out (similar to the way Arthur did for Memphis a few years ago or how Anderson did against the Pacers)

I am picking the Spurs in 6, I see us winning 2 in Miami and losing 1 here in SA.

[spurraider21]

He's gonna give the money to himself? :lol

didn't really think blue font was necessary tbh. seemed obvious enough :lol

[Knoxxx]

Lots of real faggy takes. Spurs will run TP's defender through 50 to 60 picks a night or whatever they quoted last game. TD/Splitter will protect the paint and hence the rim better than Hibbert/West. Once TD slaps down Bosh/Haslam/Bird/Lebron a few times the in"Tim"idation factor will be in full force.

I stopped reading after I scanned through and saw we are supposed to be highly afraid of the corpses of Battier/Allen/Miller even though Bonner > than the 3 combined.

Lastly I saw something about they have LeBron. Wow what a revelation.

I'll give you one other, warrior TP will be the best player on the court you can bank on it.

[math]

A couple other quick points. Timvp is predicting that the Spurs will win at most 1 of their 3 home games. That is not just incomprehensible stupid, it is damn ignorant, a willful ignorance. Second, exactly 0 of the espn analysts think the Heat win the series in less than 6. No analyst I respect looks at the Spurs chances that bleakly.

I lost all respect for you as a prognosticator.
since I can't imagine you actually holding this view, you are evidently flaming out for reasons of your own. Even Kori described your views as absurdly pessimistic.

[Darius McCrary]

What a bummer.

He don't even end the post with "Believe." :depressed

[dbreiden83080]

Been saying Miami in 6. I'm sticking with it. The rule of 'the team with the best player in the series usually wins' won't change, esp when it's the best player in the world and a top 2-3 player all-time..

Oh stop please.. Lebron has 1 ring and 2 spankings in the finals in 10 years in the league.. He can win as many regular season MVP's as ESPN wants to hand him, his ring total needs to go way up before he is top 2 or 3 anything all time..

[chrhawk]

Timvp with the reverse jinxing goods. Like it

[tmtcsc]

SMH, people still believing in LeBron "The Boogeyman" James. Did you people not watch the last series? Although they ended up winning, it wasn't easy and they resorted to bickering at each other...LeBron with his "Back to my Cleveland days", Wade with his "Chris and I need touches" jab at Lebron..They would have lost to Indiana if Game 7 was on the road. One game doesn't change the team overnight. They are not coming in to the Finals on any sort of roll. They are going to face a smarter team who has many weapons.

I don't care how much better Lebron got with his 3 pt%. We faced the best 3 pt shooter in the league and found a way to make him work for his shots. If Lebron is forced to score, he starts shooting up crap and it takes him out of his game. He likes to make things happen and not just score all the time. If we D up everyone and only double Lebron in the post, we'll hurt them.

[sexinthatsx]

i have the same prediction

mainly because the heat can shut down the spurs offense and i dunno how the spurs are gonna slow down the heat

and i think this time your prediction will hold up

Why are you guys all acting like the Spurs offense is dependent on Tony Parker's pick and rolls? Sure, that's what we did throughout the entire playoffs because it worked, but if the Heat start exploiting it like the Thunder did last year, don't expect the Spurs to make the same mistake they did last year... Duncan, Ginobili, and arguably Kawhi can all run isolations if Pop needed them to.

[math]

I think we need to hire a good sports psychologist to counsel Timvp.

[sexinthatsx]

You guys are too scared of the Heat. They're a joke of a team and we will win. Get over it.

[siraulo23]

2. The Heat's pick-and-roll defense will slow the Spurs' offense

3. The Spurs will find it difficult to stay big

4. The Heat have been coasting

5. Miami has the more trustworthy shooters

6. The Heat have LeBron James


2) - Parker's said in press conference that he's getting used to having a longer defender on him, that's good news if he/team has found an answer for that type of d on parker
- he wasnt 100 % in the warrior series but played pretty good against thompson, and let's not forget tp redeemed himself and destroyed conley and allen, two players parker has struggled against in the past
- The warriors/grizzlies' pick and roll d was no joke, obviously miami is a different animal and their personnel is built on that type of pressure d

3) - Absolutely true, although the spurs best shot at staying big is for diaw to play well at the 4 position

4) - Absolutely disagree, they were coasting in the 1st two rounds but not in the ECF, the game 7 moment brought the best of dwade, he's a champion and you expect that but imo he's injury is legit, with that said i dont
think he's gonna play as bad as he did against the pacers
- Bosh isnt injured just a tough matchup for him, i expect a good finals from bosh

5) - Man they have so many potential spur killers, all savvy veterans who play the spurs well, haslem, allen, miller etc...

6) - F me, you cant sag off lbj now, he's jumpshot is very reliable when defenders sag way off him

[spurs10]

The Spurs win one in Miami and they probably take it. This argument is reminiscient of how we couldn't possibly beat Memphis. Yes on paper who would have thought we sweep the Grizz?? However, not only are we peaking at the right time, but I think the Heat are none too confident judging by their interviews. Anyone think Pacers don't win in 6 if not for benching No Homo?? I got a feeling not all is well in South Beach. They don't BELIEVE!!!:flag:

[BradLohaus]

Wade's barely over 30 but he seems like he's Manu's age these playoffs. Don't know how hurt he really is, or if the poundings he's taken over the years are aging him quickly. I wouldn't just count on him playing like ECF game 7 throughout this series. That could be what saves us. I'm going to say he's hurt worse than is being let on, and Bosh doesn't hurt us on the level he normally does. Lebron is still Lebron though. Spurs win games 2, 3, 5, 7.

[weeks]

lmao. i wonder how many spurs fans are gonna not sleep tonight and end up awake until the end of the game tomorrow night.

[daheatin4]

Timvp, you threw away your credibility with your previous doom and gloom. If you were that wrong about the WCF , why would anyone think you know what you are talking about now. You want to protect yourself from emotional pain if they lose. That is the entire basis for the tenor and point of view represented in this post. This is a sad sight to see. Cherry pick and color your glasses darkly if you wish, but your post is far from compelling.

The Heat are coasting - lol . This is a theory attempting to deflect against the actual evidence of the playoffs. It is an attempt to explain away what facts we do have. This , therefore, is evidence supporting the contention that you are choosing this position because you want it - not based upon evident truths. Mate, you've exposed yourself and thrown away your credibility in prognostication. Nothing justifies this - trying to test for who is likely to cliff jump like Kori suggested.

I have posted thousands of times here and was never banned - simply took time off and lost my log in and had changed email...

Spurs have the best post season record and have played far better than the Heat this post season. The Heat peaked earlier and are playing mediocre basketball now. Chicago ? Milwaukee ? Pacers in 7? They are weakest where we are strongest . If Tony Allen and Memphis could not slow Tony, Miami has no chance. They cannot guard TP or TD. Wade and Bosh have been no shows throughout the playoffs. Suggesting they will play very well now is an act of faith contradicted by their recent play. Without the other Superfriends, LeBron can't beat the Spurs. LeBron and 4 guys cannot beat the Spurs. Beating the hedge leaves a 3 on 2 or 2 on 1 score and it means our 3 pt shooters are open. Tony has seen every degfense intended to stop him.

Lol Heat in 5.
Yea, heat in 5 like Grizz are overwhelming favorites.

He knows the game. Just get ready for it. Cause you going jump dat bridge if your not

[Knoxxx]

I'm still laughing about the part about replicating IND. Tell me one position IND has an advantage over SAS? One?!?

I knew you couldn't do it!

(but it's matchups all about the matchups man (please STFU!))

Player by player down the line Spurs > IND

Team play Spurs > IND

Coaching Spurs > IND

Depth Spurs > IND

Matchups v. Heat Spurs > IND (or at worst even)

I can see this as a coin flip due to Heat having home court though. I expect a 6-7 game series too close to call either direction.

[Dex]

I personally would've liked the switcheroo on standpoints for this series.

But great analysis either way, as always. :tu

Either way, I'm in it for better or worse. Spurs in 6.

Believe or GTFO.

[MinuteByMinuteSports]

LeBron is overrated. Although I will concede he's the best player in the NBA today, that says less about him and more about the shallow talent pool in 2013. Let me put it this way: I'm way more optimistic about the Spurs facing LeBron than I ever was about the Spurs facing Kobe.

Exactly.

[spurs10]

I personally would've liked the switcheroo on standpoints for this series.

But great analysis either way, as always. :tu

Either way, I'm in it for better or worse. Spurs in 6.

Believe or GTFO.Yeah....the last sentence.

[dg7md]

I've never been completely solid in the Heat as a dominant team. I think the Spurs have a realistic chance here.

[phyzik]

I'll be sure to call you out if your wrong again Tpark...... I mean TimVP.

[T Park]

I'll be sure to call you out if your wrong again Tpark...... I mean TimVP.


Thats a low blow....

[phxspurfan]

Absolutely not Heat in 5. I thinkt eh chances are slim that both Wade and Bosh hit 100% at the same time given their recent struggles. You don't just "turn it on." And the Spurs will come out with some great defensive schemes against Spo's offense (i.e. give it to LeBron and have him bully into the paint). Hell, Spo reinvented his offense around the mold of the Spurs'. Coach Pop knows how to motivate his guys better as well. I can see Neal coming in and taking a charge or three against LeBron and hitting a couple big jumpers. I can see Parker passing out of the double team and Duncan hitting Js with determination, or driving into the paint with two dribbles and easily getting to the line. Who is going to stop him? Birdman? Bosh? lol.

Spurs in 6.

[rmt]

Agree with everything except that the Heat are coasting. Don't think they coasted, but for the life of me can't understand why Spo didn't double-team Hibbert earlier. If MIA plays as badly as they did vs IND, SAS has a great chance. Unfortunately, they'll smell blood being in the Finals and with regression to the mean, the shooters will be let loose.

I give SAS a 30-70 chance. They must:

1. limit turnovers
2. rebound on both glasses
3. try to stay big with 2 of TD/TS/Diaw - hopefully it will help with #2 and #5 - as little Bonner as possible as he doesn't rebound, attack the basket or pass well. Diaw must be aggressive - preferably with attacking the basket since he's so hesitant to shoot.
4. let Lebron have his - stay home on the shooters - maybe he'll get tired or choke at the end of the game.
5. they'll blitz Parker - the bigs need to be ready to attack the basket or pass to the open man.

I hope that Pop doesn't over react to them - going small, playing too much Bonner/Neal.

[phyzik]

Thats a low blow....

:lol

No hard feelings, man. 2005 was a long time ago. I KNOW I've said some stupid shit on here as well.... Richard Jefferson comes to mind.

[mookie2001]

Timvp you forgot about the 2-3-2 format man. And I know you know how slow Miami is in the halfcourt, totally stagnant

They average about 88 tru points per game. The only thing Miami does well is get tipped balls steals and easy dunks

parker gon be spelling Richmond

[KawhiLeonard]

The heats PnR defense will determine this Series

[elmanutres]

it really doesn't work if originally it was not a jinx thread.

but let's hope the jinx Gods don't realize the Memphis one wasn't a jinx thread

This forum is one of the most superstitious forums of all the interwebz

[crc21209]

I just don't see the Heat winning in 5. Might they take the series in 6 or 7 games? Sure. But so can the Spurs. I just don't see the Heat as the juggernaut that they were when they were on the 27 game winning streak or whatever it was. And even during the win streak they got pretty lucky with chokes by the Magic and Cavs who were both up 15-20 pts in those games that they eventually lost.

1. Bosh and Wade are big question marks in this series. Both looked horrible in the previous series. I can see Bosh bouncing back a little more and playing better, but not Wade. Wade is really hurt this time around, unlike other times where it looked like he was coasting. Sure he had a "bounce back" game in Game 7 with 21 points, but they weren't 21 dominant points that people usually expect from Wade. He had a couple put backs and fast break points. All the "Wade-like" moves that people expect from him like the crossover step back J don't fall for him anymore. He doesn't get enough lift on that knee to have a consistent jump shot.

2. The Heat bigs are good, but they're not Randolph and Gasol good. If Tiago, Tim, and Diaw could have success against the Grizzlies frontline, they'll be just fine against the likes of Bosh, Haslem, and Andersen.

3. The Spurs offense is 1000x the offense that Indiana has. Indiana's offense was pathetic. By the time they dribbled the ball up the floor, there were about 14-15 seconds left on the shot clock for most of that series. They walked the ball up the court too much and didn't push the pace, which is something the Spurs love to do. The Pacers would also take too long (about 10-7 seconds left in the shot clock) to get Hibbert the ball at times.

4. Spurs guards/wings > Pacers guards/wings. Other than Paul George, the Pacers sucked on the wings. Stephenson was complete trash and was out of control for most of the series. Hill dissapeared on the road and was turnover prone. Augustin...was horrible.

5. One of the most important factor to me is the motivation factor. Tim, Tony, and Manu know that this may be their last opportunity to win a championship together and are going to give it their all to win it. You could argue that LeBron is also motivated to win back to back titles and get some "revenge" for his loss to the Spurs in 07', but I think the Spurs will have more of a "will" to win it than the Heat. LeBron was desperate to win a ring in 2010 against the Mavs and Dirk (who was also deseperate for a ring), and failed.

[Brutalis]

Hopefully the actual Spurs are not so intimidated and scared of the Heat like ST is. You guys act as if Miami is a juggernaut or some power house team. In that thought process of 90% that posted in this thread, you forgot who we are.

[rmt]

The way the schedule is set up, the first 2 games are vital. So much rest before game 1 and 2 days' rest before game 2, then every other day (when SA has their home games). Must win at least 1 of the first 2 (preferably 2), put pressure and doubt in their minds. The every other day games will be particularly hard on TD and Manu.

[afireinside20]

Are you all fucking kidding me? You all call yourselves Spurs fans and your bailing on them before the series even gets underway? Don't forget that we also have Tony Parker who's been playing remarkable all throughout the playoffs. Tim Duncan who has just been great all year, in the best shape he's been in a long time. Manu Ginobili who we all know has had an up and down playoff run but I believe in this series he will step it up. Don't sleep on Kawhi either, he has a great defensive tenacity as well and gives us the strength we need against Lebron. Tiago Splitter and Duncan together will make it hard for Lebron or Wade to drive and kick it out. Plus the Spurs as a whole are just playing great basketball. Im going to say Spurs in 6. Go Spurs Go!!!!!

[callo1]

Spurs in 5

[DrSteffo]

LOL @ GNSF. Troll jinx ftw tbh.

[TE]

If Heat win, it will in no less than six games. Regardless of who wins, this series end in Miami (game 6, or 7). The Spurs won't win three straight against this juggernaut. This fact makes the first two games in Miami that much more important to the Spurs.

rofl the overconfidence up in here is fucking insane...

[DespЏrado]

Heat in 4. Timvp is being too charitable with our chances. The Spurs are old as hell. Rely too much on a scoring point guard, a formula that has never won a championship for any team ever. The Spurs just don't have any business being in the 2013 finals. Our dreams as Spurs fans are just the pipe dream phantoms of having the ghosts of Manu, Timmy, and Tmac.

The Spurs are just this years sacrifice to the new god Lebron, the old champion trotted out like in the movie Gladiator to prop up the legacy of the new dynasty.

[KaiRMD1]

I hope you're wrong timvp

[jesterbobman]

I don't think Heat in 5 is a Sensible pick, but a lot of that is due to the structure of the finals as 2-3-2 rather than 2-2-1-1-1. It means that they'd have to win both at home and 2/3 in SA or Sweep in SA. That seems really unlikely given the teams are close in Point Differential(Heat +7.87 vs a .485 SOS Regular Season, Spurs +6.4 vs a .511 SOS), the fact that the Spurs have been playing well in the playoffs while the Heat have just struggled to beat a team that played DJ Augustin rotation minutes, and the fact the the Spurs have been healthy/are healthy, while the Heat have a series of niggling injuries. Also, playing more Kawhi/Green and no S-Jax makes us far better than our season Point differential from a player based rankings POV.

Honestly, I don't think anyone has a clue exactly how it's going to go. The Teams are really close in ability, and I wouldn't be completely shocked to see either team to win in 5. Unlikely, but not shocking.

I think Splitting the first 2, and winning 2/3 at home is quite likely. After that, we're 3-2 and as a home team, they probably have a 70% shot at winning either game, which means a 49% chance of winning both.

I'm picking the Spurs in 6, but I have no clue. I thought we were far superior to the Lakers, Warriors and Grizzlies(To an extent, Wouldn't have picked Tiago to contain Zbo so well), but I'm unsure about the Heat. LeBron is really good at Basketball.

[Ellsworth]

Pop should throw in the white flag early anytime the team is down double digits.... TMAC will work his magic - he's ain't gonna leave the Finals without that ring... there's your other shooter :lobt2:

[dallasmaverickslose]

Stop posting tbh.

[Bruno]

I'm also going with heat in 5 and I'm fine with Spurs losing the Finals even if, of course, I'm hoping for a title. Spurs had a great playoff run but the Heat/LeBron are just too good for them.

[in2deep]

Spurs sweep. So many drama queens here. They better not celebrate this championship with us. The real fans

[tesseractive]

I think Parker is going to be a lot harder for the Heat to trap this year than he was last year against the Thunder -- he carved Memphis to pieces when they tried to trap him and generally overpursue. Miami is more athletic and can recover faster, but Parker is incredibly fast with the ball, he reads defenses and makes decisions incredibly quickly, and he can change direction as suddenly as anyone I've ever seen play. Every player in the rotation can pass incredibly well, and as long as we can engineer the right looks, I'm confident in the shot of every player in our Top 7 except for Tiago, who doesn't really need to be the guy to stretch the defense anyway. No team in the league is better at getting the ball away from where the defensive pressure is being applied than the Spurs -- nobody.

We also need to be able to put Tim in positions where he can bring the hammer down on Bosh in the post. Other than LeBron, Bosh is the best guy they'll have on the floor most of the time for playing Duncan. and it's absolutely a mismatch. In terms of post moves, Duncan is still who Hibbert wants to be when he grows up, and we need to use him to get high percentage shots.

On defense, it will be key to see whether Battier continues his death spiral (DNP-CD in game 7 of the Pacers series) or whether he will actually need to be played tightly. In a perfect world he'll stay out of the rotation and we'll see a decent chunk of minutes for Haslem and/or Andersen, but we might just see more Allen and Miller. Miami is at it's most dangerous when they have 5 legit shooters on the floor (ok, really just 4 plus Wade), because it makes it really hard to keep Tim or Tiago patrolling the paint. The key to slowing them down will either be to force them to play big (which will be hard, but hopefully not impossible, at least for stretches), or to find at least one of their smalls that's ineffective enough that we can cheat off him. If we can't find a guy we can play off of a bit, LeBron is going to score in bunches -- both one on one and in plays like the ones where he uses Chalmers and Cole as screeners. Fortunately, Miami's old dudes have looked somewhere between streaky and actively bad.

I think the Heat do have another gear -- that's why I think this is going to be a long series. But by their very nature, I don't think they'll be able to trot it out whenever they feel like it. There will be times when Miami will look unbeatable, but I feel like the Spurs are talented enough and smart enough that there will be times when Miami will go back to that well and won't be able to overpower us even when they "flip the switch."

I still like Spurs in 7.

[hyhy]

2. The Heat's pick-and-roll defense will slow the Spurs' offense
The way Miami defends the pick-and-roll night in and night out is how the Thunder defended the pick-and-roll after the start of Game 3 in last season's WCF. They are going to blitz Tony Parker and force him to either play in a crowd or give the ball up. Most teams can't get away with this strategy but it works for the Heat (and worked for the Thunder) due to elite athleticism on the weakside when recovering to shooters.

Plus, Miami is even better at this style of defense than OKC because they do it so often. I expect them to blitz Parker relentlessly in an effort to make someone else beat them.

In the starting unit, there really isn't a pressure valve for TP. Can Danny Green or Tiago Splitter pop open and create plays after Parker gets trapped? Hopefully … but obviously far from certain.

The obvious solution for the Spurs would be to pair Parker and Ginobili as often as possible. Thus, when Parker gets trapped, he gives it to Ginobili so he can create with a 4-on-3 advantage. Again, hopefully that works, but at this stage of his career does the Argentine have the wherewithal and stamina to create consistently in a seven games series against an athletic and aggressive rotating defense?

Boris Diaw is another possible remedy … but will he be enough of a scoring threat for the Heat to respect his shot? If not, could Bonner come in and knock down the biggest shots of his life?

I just don't have confidence in any of these scenarios.



To counter the double on hedging, Spurs can just screen the screener. The screener's defender will be at the wrong position to hedge and they cant double parker anymore. Pacers only realised PnR was so effective against Heat in the series and they couldnt do much work on it when Heat is able to close out on the roll man quick enough while still doubling Hill. Spurs should be able to overcome it if they execute properly.

[z0sa]

Our bigs are playing against Bosh, Birdman, and smalls for chrissakes. That is a huge step down from the Grizzlies and even Laker bigs. Timmy, Tiago, and Boris will all have their way if the Heat trap. If they don't make great use of that, ok we lose. But that would be strange considering all three players are rolling at a pretty high level right now. This is ignoring the fact if Parker plays at a high level the Heat have absolutely no answer.

Some may be underestimating refreshed Tim Duncan's impact on the game. While he may not be Prime Duncan, it is time to admit to yourself he is still capable of playing some of the best ball of his life. He has faced, guarded, and beaten in key moments some of today's best big men on both ends, and that is just in the last few weeks. These Heat will not be able to "simply" trap Parker and run to shooters... not when Tim Duncan and Splitter are on the court, getting wide open looks in their sweetspots against a rotating Haslem or LeBron. Including Diaw and Bonner, all of our bigs also know how to pass to the right place and at the right time. Heat can only scramble for so much of a game; Spurs simply must be effective at beating it when they apply the pressure.

And Splitter just stepped up last series, on both ends. In fact, I fully expect perhaps the most memorable series of Tiago's career coming up, provided the Spurs ball movement stays strong and we limit our silly turnovers. Undoubtedly, Pop plays small some points in this series, but he will only stick to it if Splitter sucks terribly, which I don't see happening. Spurs own the personnel to stay big the majority of the series.

[naico]

This is depressive lol. I think for a lot of people here the fear of losing, plays a huge role in calculating our chances. So we choose to be pessimistic. Make sure we don't get our hopes up too much becuz we so badly wanna win this. So although there is reasoning behind us being the clear underdog, this fear of losing adds to our expectations of losing.

[L.I.T]

Length, athleticism, talent... All skew towards the Heat. Even depth.

Heat in 6, if only because I think Spurs take 2/3 at home.

[jiggy_55]

Will the Spurs try to get the ball out of Lebron's hands or force him to do all the work and stay on their shooters?

[alamo50]

Spurs in 5.

[BillMc]

Spurs in 5.

+1

[polandprzem]

timvp - you are not gonna win 1000$

[DBMethos]

Hope the actual Spurs players have more confidence in themselves than I've seen here.

Fuck Miami.

[Prime Time]

Meh, if Miami clicks perfectly they could win in 5. But I'm going to give the Spurs a little more credit, I think they'll respond well to whatever Miami throws at them. If I HAD to bet on a winner, I'd go with Miami. But it's not like I'm expecting Spurs to get dominated or as if it's impossible for SA to win.
Tiago and Manu HAVE to play huge for Spurs to have a chance.. Parker's going to penetrate, Duncan's going to Duncanize, Kawhi will hustle, we know this. But Tiago/Manu give inconsistent production constantly. If those two step up, it's over. Miami will have no answer to Splitter's inside tatics (Considering they'd have to worry about Duncan as well) and Ginobili (when clicking) Is one of the most unguardable players in the league. SA would win in 5.

[Prime Time]

Also, Lol @ Coasting. It's the fucking playoffs, Team's won't "coast" in that type of situation. They can step up, but you can't act as if Miami is not even trying.

[ffadicted]

:stirpot:

[Leetonidas]

the jinx is in. let's do this :tu

[SA210]

Was there a Spurstalk GTG neutering party that I don't know about?

[objective]

I agree with timvp.

I don’t see the Spurs winning. Some of my thoughts:

We will find the true measure of how good/great a coach Pop is. Pop, with regards to titles and contention, I feel has been overrated. The Spurs were favorites in every finals previous and had homecourt, and even some of those teams underachieved in how long it took them to win. Plus, he’s had several other teams that were better but lost to worse opponents preventing other finals appearances. Hell, I’ve come to believe the Spurs would have lost in 03 if Dirk doesn’t get hurt. That team was an Horry rim-out from losing in round 2, and needed amazing unexpected clutch performances in game 6 of the WCF and the Finals to come from behind.

So I don’t think Pop vs. Spo is a mis-match. We’ve all seen some of Pop’s faults devastate the Spurs big-picture just as much as we’ve seen Pop’s in-game calls work brilliantly small-picture. Without homecourt, and with the worse team, I don’t think Pop is going to be winning. It’s Pop’s teams that get backdoor swept, and it’s Pop and not Phil Jackson who loses series after winning game 1.

If the Spurs pull this series out, then I could concede Pop as the best in the game, but I don’t expect that I’ll have to. Coaching the worse, underdog team without homecourt to a title this year would be his crowning achievement, but I'm not holding my breath.

What of the Budenholzer distraction? Bud has had to attend press conferences, do media rounds and radio shows, contact colleagues around the league to recruit a staff (bye-bye Chip Engelland maybe?) and talk to the few remaining Hawks players, plus the other miscellaneous items required by his new job. Where does that leave the Spurs? That leaves Brown as the only other experienced assistant on the courtside bench fully focused on the job at hand, no offense to new-to-coaching Udoka. That to me weakens Pop’s support foundation, and though it might not be damaging to the Spurs chances, I don’t see how it helps.

The Chokers can and will still choke. Bonner. Neal. I don’t trust these guys. I don’t trust Pop to get them to not choke, or to not give them the chance to choke. I sure as hell don’t trust Neal on defense. He falls down on defense more than anyone in the league. He will hurt the Spurs. Bonner’s sad history is no fluke, he is not to be trusted. I don’t trust Danny Green that much either on offense, but I am hopeful he can still be useful on defense so long as he doesn’t get abused ball-watching.

Why are Blair and Mills going to be active? Blair can’t defend anyone and just reaches for fouls nonstop. Mills serves no purpose either. I’d rather have Baynes and De Colo as emergencies than Blair and Mills. Or Neal for that matter.

Manu isn’t Manu anymore. It’s sad, as much as we all love him. It’s also true. Manu is an all-time great and a hall-of-famer, but I don’t think the Spurs can survive his seemingly routine 2-4 straight possession nightmare implosions against the Heat like they could in other rounds. Which Memphis game was it where in the last 2-3 minutes he had two straight AWFUL possessions that nearly gave the game away? Well, against the Heat, that won’t nearly give the game away, I’m afraid it WILL give the game away.

The Heat role players will go off. Haslem can do just as good a job nailing open mid-range jumpers as last year’s OKC team. Bosh too. Norris Cole is the type of player to go off when Parker is trying to rest in game. Allen is just the kind of player Neal loves to lose track of for open threes. And Miller is the exact player Green likes to drift from for the same.

--

But the only hope I have is Duncan and Splitter. The last week or so the media has asked, “how has Duncan been able to look this fresh?” And the answers have usually been about losing weight, or minutes restrictions, or ‘being on a mission’. But I suspect I know the real answer. The answer is that for the first time since playoffs of 05, Duncan played alongside a REAL big man who has shared the physical burden.

Sure, the Spurs won in 07 with the pair of Oberto and Elson, but after the PHX series that title would be a given. But Splitter is a REAL Center that has helped Duncan so much that it’s disgusting to think about the years wasted on smallball. Going small against the Mavs, or the later years of undersized, over-the-hill guys like Oberto and McDyess, the smallball of Finley or Udoka or Jefferson at PF, or the misbegotten seasons of Bonner or Blair. Or fat Diaw.

Splitter is why Duncan is able to be who he has been. And if the Spurs win this series, I am confident that we will look back and see that Splitter played so well that Pop couldn’t quit on him, and that his eased some weight from Duncan’s shoulders, freeing him to play like the legend he was before he had anchors tied to his legs, anchors named Bonner or Blair or McDyess or Udoka or Finley or Jefferson.

[Russo21]

Hey timvp, go fuck yourself

[benefactor]

6. The Heat have LeBron James
More often than not, the winner of a playoff series is the team with the best player. LeBron James is that man. He's not only the best basketball player in the universe, he's a top five talent ever and he's in his absolute prime. Which players in history would you rather have on your team than 2013 LeBron? Personally, my list probably begins and ends with Michael Jordan.


He's a great player and all, but come on now. Beyond Jordan in any year, I will also take '94 Olajuwon, '03 Duncan and '00 Shaq...and it's not a hard decision at all.

[spurspokesman]

plus timvp just positioning himself to a win-win scenario

Spurs lose - he redeem himself

Spurs win - he is happy and it was all a jinx after all. move along


:lmao This

[SA210]

All this defeatist talk is sickening. :nope

Only Pop (His Bonner/Neal love) and the refs are what can hold the Spurs back.


Spurs play their game and we'll be ok.

:flag:

[DawgMilkX]

And this is the reason why i think the Spurs win, the big 3 realize this may be their last chance at a ring and ball out. Heat arent as great as everyone makes them out to be. we got this in 5 @home

[polandprzem]

btw. Miami has as much winning the title this year as Milwaukee :fight


But seriously I hear you LJ and I know what you mean and also I know what you ment vs Memphis series.
Miami can play much better but do they really are able to?
They do have guys that likes to explode against us - haslem, Battier, Allen, Miller
They do have the best pnr D in the league - shutting down Parker = shutting down the spurs

I SAID IT LAST YEAR - that I doubt the spurs. If they can lose 4 straight they can fall against Miami this year as well. So I would like to eat my crow and keep what's left from the faith I got.

Miami went full out in game 7 and thay can provide that punch to the 1st Finals game,a nd with spurs being rusty, it might be a spurs disaster.

Manu as a starter hmm Pop tried it on practices, but IMO more needed is guy from the bench names Neal which I do not want to see vs Miami this series when he is not 100% I'd rather have Mills to play some role is punishing Heat.

How tough Splitt, Joseph, Leonard are. We gonna see. But they were tested vs Memphis good IMO.


War Spurs

ONE!

Do it

Let's go

:flag:

[polandprzem]

btw2
Pop took to heart him loing 4 straight last year and I think this year he is doing a better job :tu

[SouthernFried]

This reverse Jinx thing is just so lame.

You would have to think the world revolves around you for your opinion to matter that much.

It doesn't.

[biskvito]

The only way to beat Miami is playing D, but that's what they want because you get into foul trouble due to Sternball.

That's exactly how Miami killed Pacer's momentum with Hibbert or Hill being benched at crucial times.

[Spur|n|Austin]

This reverse Jinx thing is just so lame.

You would have to think the world revolves around you for your opinion to matter that much.

It doesn't.

To each his own man, saying that - Spurs are old, Heat in 4.

[Legacy]

This reverse Jinx thing is just so lame.

You would have to think the world revolves around you for your opinion to matter that much.

It doesn't.

I agree 100 percent. :tu

Spurs in 6; could be 5.

[roycrikside]

Excellent, excellent. Now all we need is a scathing rebuttal from roycrikside (http://www.spurstalk.com/forums/member.php?u=9378) for the prophecy to be complete.

Blarg. Dammit so much. Okay, though I doubt he'll rebut me since he didn't last time because he's a big hairy girl and I completely trashed every one of his points in the Grizzlies series (and was proven correct on like 9 of 10).


1. The Spurs can't replicate the Pacers. It's true the Spurs are much better than the Pacers. It's also true that the Pacers were close to beating the Heat. Unfortunately, those two statements aren't related. Playoff basketball is all about matchups. Indiana, even though they aren't that good, match-up very well with Miami. First of all, Roy Hibbert is in a class of his own when it comes to protecting the basket. Advanced stats point in that direction and I wholeheartedly agree. He's tall, long, strongly built, fearless, smart and quick enough. While I'd classify Duncan as the superior all-around defender because he's better out on the court and better defending opposing post players, Hibbert is better than Duncan at defending the rim. Just as importantly, LeBron James was obviously intimidated by his presence. Hibbert has about three inches and 50 pounds on Duncan. Add in the rest of the length and athleticism on the Pacers (as Frank Vogel said of his team: "We're f**king huge!") and they're a totally different beast than the Spurs. Indiana also has a lot of interchangeable defenders, which further helps in terms of dealing with the Heat. The Spurs don't have that luxury. On offense, the Pacers can hit the Heat in their two main weak spots. First, their offensive rebounding takes advantage of Miami's iffy work on the glass. Secondly, the ability to put multiple post-up threats on the court at the same time takes advantage of their lack of quality true bigman depth. The Spurs, on the other hand, don't go after offensive boards and they only have one tried and true post-up threat. Long story short, the Pacers aren't very good but their areas of strength work very well against the Heat. Thus, the susceptibility of the Heat in the ECF was more a product of match-ups than anything else.

You'll forgive me if I yawn at the match-up hokum because the Grizzlies were supposed to match-up well with the Spurs, who obliterated them in four. My personal theory on why Heat-Pacers went seven games? It's because Indiana was the second-best team in the Eastern Conference and they had a terrific starting five that played like 30 minutes a night together.

So what if Duncan is a tick worse than Hibbert defending the rim? He showed he's plenty good in that regard the previous series and Splitter is a longer (and better) second banana defensively than David West is. Since when is two not better than one? The Spurs throw 14-feet of big man at you in the paint, and while I'm not a historian by any means, I do seem to recall that working out okay in 1999 and even 2003.

It just continues to blow my mind that people --even some Spurs fans who should know better-- refuse to accept the plain facts in front of them, that this is a terrific defensive basketball team, with an absolutely dominant starting five. Their only weakness is that they don't play as many minutes together as some of the more celebrated starting units across the league, but Ginobili and Diaw aren't huge drop-offs from Green and Splitter. Leonard is just as long as Paul George, Green is more reliable than the combustible Stephenson (and again, has a better backup), and while Parker doesn't have Hill's length, he is smarter at funneling people where he wants them to go.

That's just defense, where until proven otherwise I absolutely refuse to accept that the Spurs will be any worse off than the Pacers were, holding Miami to a mid-90's average and in the low 40's in shooting percentage. The Spurs lead the league in defensive efficiency (95.4) in the postseason. The Pacers finished at 101.6. The Spurs are also second offensively, the Pacers were tenth.


2. The Heat's pick-and-roll defense will slow the Spurs' offense. The way Miami defends the pick-and-roll night in and night out is how the Thunder defended the pick-and-roll after the start of Game 3 in last season's WCF. They are going to blitz Tony Parker and force him to either play in a crowd or give the ball up. Most teams can't get away with this strategy but it works for the Heat (and worked for the Thunder) due to elite athleticism on the weakside when recovering to shooters. Plus, Miami is even better at this style of defense than OKC because they do it so often. I expect them to blitz Parker relentlessly in an effort to make someone else beat them. In the starting unit, there really isn't a pressure valve for TP. Can Danny Green or Tiago Splitter pop open and create plays after Parker gets trapped? Hopefully; but obviously far from certain.The obvious solution for the Spurs would be to pair Parker and Ginobili as often as possible. Thus, when Parker gets trapped, he gives it to Ginobili so he can create with a 4-on-3 advantage. Again, hopefully that works, but at this stage of his career does the Argentine have the wherewithal and stamina to create consistently in a seven games series against an athletic and aggressive rotating defense? Boris Diaw is another possible remedy … but will he be enough of a scoring threat for the Heat to respect his shot? If not, could Bonner come in and knock down the biggest shots of his life? I just don't have confidence in any of these scenarios.

The Spurs just played what was, by most accounts, the best defense in the league and they riddled them full of holes. They found plenty of open shots on the corners, Parker solved every puzzle they threw at him, and Ginobili found plenty of guys for easy layups.

Before addressing the fallacy of your main argument, lets go back to the fiction of the Thunder beating the Spurs with their defense. Pop has stated, ad nauseam, that it was the Spurs defense that let down in that series, not their offense. In games 4-6 they scored 103, 103, and 99 points, and that was without any contributions from Splitter and next to none from Leonard and Green.

Game 3, you throw out. The Spurs had no legs at all, the Thunder were at home and absolutely desperate at 0-2 and a 20-game winning streak had to end eventually. Game 4 was the real anomaly. Ibaka-Perkins-Collison are never going to shoot 22-of-25 again. Ever. Just a freak occurence that came at the worst time. Game 5 they just couldn't get a stop down the stretch as Harden and Durant refused to miss. That game, more than any other, was what Pop showed to the team in training camp and he wasn't pointing out the offensive failings. Game 6 was a refereeing atrocity, as blatantly 8-on-5 as any game in league history.

Ironically, L.J. has pointed out, numerous times, how the Spurs lost because the Thunder shot historically well from long-twos, the least efficient shot in basketball. Whether it was Ibaka, Durant, Harden or even Westbrook they just shot the lights out when it mattered. Now he's changing his tune and saying the offense lost the series. Good lord.

Now, that tangent aside, lets get back to main point, Spurs offense vs. Heat defense. I find it adorable that LJ linked to offensive rebounding and post play as the only way to score on the Heat when the Celtics took Miami (a better Miami, I'd argue, with a better Wade and Bosh) to seven with ZERO offensive rebounding and next to no post game.

How'd they pull off this feat? Well, they had a good defense (check), but also they had a superduperstar point guard (double check) in Rajon Rondo.

I know it seems like eight years ago when the Spurs last played a playoff game, but really the Grizzlies series wasn't that far back. I contend that the specter of a "fearsome defense with athletic lengthy defenders" will be far less of a culture shock for the Spurs than playing a great point guard who can score and pass will be for the Heat, since they haven't faced an animal like that like since March. With all due respect to George Hill, he's no Tony Parker. Tony is faster. Tony can dribble. Tony knows a few tricks. Tony also plays with a few smart guys, too.

I'd argue that the 2013 Spurs, much like the 2012 Spurs, are a superior squad to the 2012 Celtics. Parker is better than Rondo, with many more clubs in his bag. Duncan is better than Garnett. Splitter is better than Bass. I suppose they were a match-up case too?

Maybe the Heat just play close series against good teams? Could that be it? Maybe the Finals last season would've been close if Harden didn't miss a million open shots and Scott Brooks didn't play his worst player like 30 minutes a night? Just throwing it out there.

I'm not freaking out about the notion of Parker being trapped. The Spurs bigs screen too creatively for him to be limited consistently. The offense doesn't have him dribbling around for 23 seconds looking to make something happen, a sitting duck for traps. They run him off the ball around screens to mix it up. And even if he doesn't have the ball, I'll take the Spurs 4-on-3 every time. What makes their offense so great is that virtually everyone can pass, not just the point guard, and everyone is unselfish and hellbent about looking for the best possible shot (except for Gary Neal).

If the Heat defense are the sentinels, than the Spurs offense is Neo. It's that simple. If you watched Game 7 against the Pacers, you saw these rare sequences where every now and then Indy strung six, seven passes together and got a wide open three. Maybe you missed it because these looks were bookended by turnovers or stupid contested shots. Well the Spurs are smart enough and disciplined enough to get the very best of what the Pacers got, not as the exception but rather the norm. The Spurs will not lack for open shots against the Heat. Whether they knock them down or not will tell the tale.


3. The Spurs will find it difficult to stay big. Having Duncan and Tiago Splitter on the court is preferred when going against this team. The Pacers were able to punish the Heat by keeping David West next to Hibbert. But I don't think Pop is going to be able to go long stretches with that duo. On defense, Splitter would probably have to chase someone like Shane Battier or Mike Miller out on the perimeter. That'll be difficult -- but not impossible. But the big difference between West and Splitter is on offense. West will absolutely punish smaller defenders. Battier, for example, had no chance against him. Splitter, on the other hand, really struggles to post-up smaller defenders. I don't think I have to remind Spurs fans how Derek Fisher was able to guard him in the post a year ago -- or Klay Thompson a couple weeks ago. Is Splitter going to be able to destroy Battier? I haven't seen any evidence to be confident he will. Hell, I'm not sure he could bully Miller. Splitter has a high center of gravity and has trouble when short players use strength against him. He's actually better against bigger, less mobile defenders. So, if Splitter can't make the Heat pay for going small by scoring in the post, it's unlikely having him roam around the perimeter chasing Battier or Miller on defense is going to be worth keeping him on the court. The result, IMO, will be Pop going more to Diaw, Bonner or small ball instead of the preferred tandem of TD and Splitter.

One, I'm not so sure Battier will even be in the rotation for the Heat. He could be cooked. Two, even if he is, I think Splitter would have an advantage over him because nobody buys Battier's flops anymore. And I definitely like Splitter down low against Miller. That's laughable. Mainly though looking at Splitter from the sole prism of back-to-the-basket post game is faulty. His meat-and-potatoes is being the roll man and against those above-mentioned 4-on-3 situations, that's where he'd clean up. Splitter scores at a pretty good percentage when he's guarded by nobody, and nobody was his most common defender vs. the Grizzlies.

Defensively if Splitter can't hang with the Heat's small lineups, I'm still more than happy to go to war with Duncan-Leonard-Green-Ginobili-Parker vs. Bosh-James-x-Wade-Chalmers. I'm not saying we have a clear edge in this scenario, but if these quintets face each other I think the Spurs can hold their own, with a couple of defensive pigeons in Miami's fivesome, just as there were with Memphis'.


4. The Heat have been coasting. During the regular season, the Heat were one of the best teams I've ever seen. It's not much of a stretch to say this was one of the top 10 best regular seasons ever by any team. They've been a relative disappointment in the playoffs but I think they realized what we all knew: the East was terrible and getting to the Finals was a formality from the beginning. Sure, they needed to try a little bit to put the Pacers away but I don't think they've even taken it out of first or second gear yet. They have a ton of room to improve entering this series -- and now that they can see the light at the end of the tunnel, I expect them to play by far their best basketball of the postseason. As far as Wade and Bosh are concerned, I think they realized a LeBron-led team could make it to the Finals by himself. Where they injured? Yeah, maybe a little bit, but I think their struggles were more to do with coasting. In these Finals, I expect both at or near 100%.

Yes, the Heat were so good during the regular season that they finished 1.3 points worse in scoring margin than the Thunder and were basically the same in that stat as the Spurs before San Antonio took April off. Miami won a lot of close games against a lot of crap Eastern teams, going to the mattresses twice against Orlando, against Sacramento, against the Cavs B team, trailing by 20+ against the Celtics and Knicks, so on. Hell, their 27-game win streak was snapped by a worse Chicago lineup than the starless Spurs defeated.

I'm not saying the Heat aren't good, but they are overrated, and if they've been coasting during the playoffs, then I fail to see when during the regular season they weren't coasting. I think Dwyane Wade is legitimately limited, that Bosh is basically Andrea Bargnani at this point (with better defense), and they have the same high-variance role player problems from game to game that every contender deals with. This notion that Wade and Bosh consciously or unconsciously gave less than their best for three rounds of playoffs and forced LeBron to do everything because they're lazy jerks is ridiculous. They gave what they had. It could just be that those guys peaked too early, which numerous Spurs teams have done these past six years. Furthermore, I don't think it's exactly the smartest strategy, to wear down your best player to the point of near exhaustion, just because you can. It would've been smarter to just win each series in four games and get the maximum amount of rest, if it was that easy, no?

You wanna see coasting? Go see the Spurs in April. Go see teams tanking for lottery balls. Maybe I'm naive, but I think playoff teams play hard.


5. Miami has the more trustworthy shooters. This series could very well come down to which team's role players are hitting their three-pointers. And looking at the respective resumes, it's difficult to not side with the Heat. They haven't shot well in the playoffs so far -- but let's not forget how well they shot in the Finals last year. When the lights got bright, they seemingly couldn't miss. For example, take Battier. Like this season, Battier struggled in the Eastern Conference portion of the bracket in 2012. But come the Finals, he shot 57% from deep. His has hit less than one-fourth of his threes so far in these playoffs but I wouldn't be surprised if he snaps out of that slump in the Finals. Battier, Ray Allen, Mike Miller; those are some of the players you'd most want taking pressure shots.The Spurs on paper have very good shooters but is anyone really confident in Bonner in the Finals? How about Kawhi Leonard after spending so much of his energy on D? Green doesn't exactly have a sparkling resume in this department. Ginobili has been streaky -- to put it kindly. Neal? Yeah, no.

In the playoffs the Spurs are shooting .362 from deep, the Heat are shooting .356. The Spurs are allowing .336, the Heat are allowing .325. Man, I hope the Spurs will be able to overcome that .005 net difference.

Ray Allen shot a whopping .350 from three (and a whopping .377 overall) in the Finals. He shot .293 from downtown in 2010 for the Celtics against the Lakers in his Finals appearance before that. He did light it up at a .524 clip in 2008 vs. LA, but I'm gonna go out on a limb and say that the "heat of the Finals lights" don't really affect Allen and he shoots what he shoots and is subject to to whims of the small-sample gods as anyone else.

Yes, Shane Battier shot .577 from three against OKC, but is that any more telling than the .350 he shot from three in seven games vs. Boston the series before that or the .273 he shot in six games vs. the Pacers the series before that? If you want to slice the micro-splits even further, you could conclude that Battier, in Game 4 of the Finals, the most important game of the series since it was the one which tilted the series firmly in Miami's favor, shot only .250 (1-of-4) from downtown. What a choker!

Your goofiest example is Miller, who was 0-of-3 from deep in the first four games of the finals and then 7-of-8 in the last one. If you want to attach meaning to that, then you might as well retire Steve Kerr's jersey at the AT&T center.

Is one game of a sample size that much less significant than five? My guess would be that Allen, Battier, Miller, etc. will all shoot somewhere close to their career norms in the Finals, and if they don't, then it's simple dumb luck and nothing as dumb as being clutch or a choker. It's random variance. Green and Bonner are right there with them in career numbers, with Ginobili and Leonard a notch below.

More significant to me is what form guys are in lately, and I'll take the ones who have good strokes going and have fresher legs.


6. The Heat have LeBron James More often than not, the winner of a playoff series is the team with the best player. LeBron James is that man. He's not only the best basketball player in the universe, he's a top five talent ever and he's in his absolute prime. He is handsome and sexy and smart and awesome and probably the greatest person in the history of people and made of candy and I want him inside of me.

I suppose this dovetails from LeBron's comment about being "40 or 50 times better" than he was in 2007. Now far be it for me to argue math with a dude who joined the NBA straight out of high school, but as I recall, the 2007 LeBron singlehandedly put the Billups-Hamilton-'Sheed-Prince-Big Ben Pistons away and had a 48 point effort in Game 5 of that series, scoring something like 25 points in a row.

That guy was pretty good, and the Spurs contained him in the Finals.

I wonder if James, perhaps by hypnosis, completely expunged the 2011 Finals from his memory. If he's 50 times the player he was in 2007, how much better is he now than June 2011, eleventy-billion?

James ran completely roughshod over both the Celtics and the Bulls that season and then promptly crapped the bed against Dallas. He was far worse in that series than he was against the Spurs six years ago.

I'm not saying James isn't great, because he is, and that he's not the best player in this series, because he is, but this isn't, pardon the pun, the Spurs' first rodeo and Pop and co. have been pretty good in the past at containing the other team's best guy, and if not stopping him than stopping everyone else.

Look, if Miam's big three all play well, then yes, the Heat will win. If only James plays well though and Bosh & Wade are stuck at their Pacers level, then I like the Spurs very much. If Bosh & Wade are good and we get '11 Mavericks LeBron, then I also like the Spurs very much.

Maybe if both teams were going into the series in completely equal circumstances as far as rest/injuries/play-off stress, then I'd give the Heat the edge based on having the best player and home court advantage.

However, if ever the Spurs were going to pull the upset, the 2013 playoffs have so far unfolded in the perfect scenario. The Spurs have played just 14 postseason games and have been off for nine days. That's nine days for the best coach in the planet and his staff to dissect every bit of Heat film. If those guys have any weaknesses to exploit, I'm betting that Pop has discovered it and drilled his charges on it.

Meanwhile, the Heat have just endured seven grueling games vs. a very physical Pacers team that forced James to use up a bunch of his fuel tank and knocked Wade around quite a bit too. The Spurs have their rotation set and guys know their roles. They've watched so much Heat film by now that they probably could put on a Miami jersey and run any play Spoelstra calls.

The Heat rotation, by contrast, is in total flux. Neither Miller or Battier have any idea where they stand. They've had almost no time to prepare for a Spurs team that is 180 degrees different from the one they've just played. They have almost no frame of reference for them and haven't faced Ginobili in over two years. It'll probably be like Game 3 before they figure out he's left-handed.

Also, DeJuan Blair, Nando de Colo and Tracy McGrady would've been the sixth-seventh-eighth men on the Pacers, and that has to mean something.

[romsho]

Timvp- While your analysis is well reasoned, I think you've again done the same thing you did in your Memphis analysis. Simply, you've overvalued Miami (outside of LeBron of course) and undervalued the Spurs, especially a rested and healthy Spurs roster and a HOF coach with 10 days to prepare. And don't tell me it wasn't 10 days...they knew who was coming. I'm not even saying Miami won't ultimately win the series. But Miami in 5? That's not even pessimism, or being "realistic", its a failed breakdown of real strengths and weaknesses. I wish I believed you were faking this shit in an anti jinx sort of way. It's ok to want them to win this badly without being soft or having clouded judgement. For Godssake, sack up.

[100%duncan]

Gonna have to agree with LJ, again. Although I'm thinking Heat in 6. I think the Spurs are capable of stealing a road game and will win a home game, or lose Game 1 and 2 and win two home games.

Looking back, it was probably silly to think the Spurs would lose to Memphis, but it is not silly nor unreasonable to think Miami is going to beat the Spurs.

The Spurs really have to be playing perfect basketball to beat the Heat. I'm hoping I am dead wrong too. I really do want to see the Spurs win a 5th title, but Miami is just too much of a match-up problem for them.

100%duncan, get in here.

Sup brah. I'll be bump this and tag you and LJ again at the 3rd week of June tbh. :lol

:toast

[Mr.Bottomtooth]

http://www.lolbrary.com/content/760/fuck-this-thread-reaction-gif-45760.gif

:lmao

[SouthernFried]

Tim's analysis as of late has been, uh... not so good.

I remember a time a few years back, when I really appreciated his take. Now I look at them and think...is this the same person? Do we watch the same games?

Eh, it is what it is. Personally, I would take the Spurs in this series for a number of reasons. The most important reason tho, imho...is POP. I think the coaching aspect of these finals has been virtually ignored. They've NOT been focusing on how the coaches approach the game, but on how they handle interviews.

The X factor in this series...is Pop.

[703 Spurz]

I hope I'm wrong again. I hope beyond hope I'm wrong.

Being wrong vs. Memphis should mean you're forbidden to predict again b/c it proved you don't know shit about predicting :toast

[Homeland Security]

I think the Heat will win, but looking at timvp's reasons, it's obvious he's attempting a reverse jinx. Here's why:

1. Heat defense on the pick-and-roll. timvp brings up the OKC defense in Games 3-6 last year. While their efforts on Parker, and Ibaka's ability to guard wings, slowed the Spurs from their Games 1 & 2 offensive efficiency, in those first games the Spurs were at historically mind-boggling levels. In Games 3-6, the Spurs were back to about what they did in the late regular season and first couple rounds of the playoffs. All Scott Brooks did was pull his pants up from his ankles. OKC beat the Spurs with a blitz of devastating unguardable offense.

Miami is great on the pick-and-roll, but most teams just go straight into a P-n-R without doing anything to set it up, so Miami doesn't have to have completed any rotations before defending it, and they can just overplay, trap, and force turnovers. When Miami forces turnovers and gets into transition, they destroy you. Against SA, the Spurs should have run Paker off a couple screens in one of their motion sets before going into the P-n-R. This is a tougher challenge for Miami -- they can't just overplay the ball or they'll get sliced up with backdoor cuts. Now if Miami does execute, then yes the Spurs will struggle to score because the shot clock will be winding down and they'll have to force contested shots. But hey, if they are able to shut down Tony Parker like that without overplaying him then it wasn't meant to be anyway.

2. Spurs inability to stay big: timvp ignores the impact of Splitter's sprained ankle on his play early in the GSW series when assessing Klay Thompson's ability to guard him. But Splitter is never going to do what David West does anyway. That's never been his game and it isn't how he hurts teams. SA wouldn't have been planning to play Splitter 30 minutes a game anyway -- what, are the Spurs going to abandon what they've done all year and start trying to snatch up offensive rebounds? As if that is anything but galactically stupid against a team like Miami that can blow a game wide open in a hurry in transition?

3. Heat have been coasting: This is just obvious trolling and is the clearest evidence of the reverse jinx attempt. I guess Manu Ginobili has been coasting too.

The Heat will beat the Spurs because they have the players who can make the Spurs pay for giving up the shots their defense is designed to give up, they have LeBron James, and they are the more experienced team -- the Heat's big 3 have almost as many combined Finals appearances as the Spurs', and their role players have waaaaay more experience at this level than SA's -- Matt Bonner is the only Spurs role player to have appeared in a Finals.

Heat in 6.

[Whisky Dog]

This is definitely not the matchup advantage for the Spurs that Memphis was as Memphis didnt have non post scoring other than streaks from Pondexter and definitely didnt have a perimeter league superstar. This one is going to be really tough

We just have to hope the Spurs can do enough defensively and that Wade/Bosh/Battier/Allen/Miller are truly banged up and/or in steep decline, or hope Lebron pulls a 2012 Harden and starts missing everything in the finals after being an all time great scorer in the conference finals.

[50 cent]

Timvp, nice work trying to keep your own expectations in check. However, your blood pressure will be just like the rest of us die hards when it comes down to it.

[Legacy]

Sup brah. I'll be bump this and tag you and LJ again at the 3rd week of June tbh. :lol

:toast

What'd you predict, my pinoy brother? :D

[100%duncan]

What'd you predict, my pinoy brother? :D

Spurs in 6. :toast

[SA210]

Blarg. Dammit so much. Okay, though I doubt he'll rebut me since he didn't last time because he's a big hairy girl and I completely trashed every one of his points in the Grizzlies series (and was proven correct on like 9 of 10).



You'll forgive me if I yawn at the match-up hokum because the Grizzlies were supposed to match-up well with the Spurs, who obliterated them in four. My personal theory on why Heat-Pacers went seven games? It's because Indiana was the second-best team in the Eastern Conference and they had a terrific starting five that played like 30 minutes a night together.

So what if Duncan is a tick worse than Hibbert defending the rim? He showed he's plenty good in that regard the previous series and Splitter is a longer (and better) second banana defensively than David West is. Since when is two not better than one? The Spurs throw 14-feet of big man at you in the paint, and while I'm not a historian by any means, I do seem to recall that working out okay in 1999 and even 2003.

It just continues to blow my mind that people --even some Spurs fans who should know better-- refuse to accept the plain facts in front of them, that this is a terrific defensive basketball team, with an absolutely dominant starting five. Their only weakness is that they don't play as many minutes together as some of the more celebrated starting units across the league, but Ginobili and Diaw aren't huge drop-offs from Green and Splitter. Leonard is just as long as Paul George, Green is more reliable than the combustible Stephenson (and again, has a better backup), and while Parker doesn't have Hill's length, he is smarter at funneling people where he wants them to go.

That's just defense, where until proven otherwise I absolutely refuse to accept that the Spurs will be any worse off than the Pacers were, holding Miami to a mid-90's average and in the low 40's in shooting percentage. The Spurs lead the league in defensive efficiency (95.4) in the postseason. The Pacers finished at 101.6. The Spurs are also second offensively, the Pacers were tenth.



The Spurs just played what was, by most accounts, the best defense in the league and they riddled them full of holes. They found plenty of open shots on the corners, Parker solved every puzzle they threw at him, and Ginobili found plenty of guys for easy layups.

Before addressing the fallacy of your main argument, lets go back to the fiction of the Thunder beating the Spurs with their defense. Pop has stated, ad nauseam, that it was the Spurs defense that let down in that series, not their offense. In games 4-6 they scored 103, 103, and 99 points, and that was without any contributions from Splitter and next to none from Leonard and Green.

Game 3, you throw out. The Spurs had no legs at all, the Thunder were at home and absolutely desperate at 0-2 and a 20-game winning streak had to end eventually. Game 4 was the real anomaly. Ibaka-Perkins-Collison are never going to shoot 22-of-25 again. Ever. Just a freak occurence that came at the worst time. Game 5 they just couldn't get a stop down the stretch as Harden and Durant refused to miss. That game, more than any other, was what Pop showed to the team in training camp and he wasn't pointing out the offensive failings. Game 6 was a refereeing atrocity, as blatantly 8-on-5 as any game in league history.

Ironically, L.J. has pointed out, numerous times, how the Spurs lost because the Thunder shot historically well from long-twos, the least efficient shot in basketball. Whether it was Ibaka, Durant, Harden or even Westbrook they just shot the lights out when it mattered. Now he's changing his tune and saying the offense lost the series. Good lord.

Now, that tangent aside, lets get back to main point, Spurs offense vs. Heat defense. I find it adorable that LJ linked to offensive rebounding and post play as the only way to score on the Heat when the Celtics took Miami (a better Miami, I'd argue, with a better Wade and Bosh) to seven with ZERO offensive rebounding and next to no post game.

How'd they pull off this feat? Well, they had a good defense (check), but also they had a superduperstar point guard (double check) in Rajon Rondo.

I know it seems like eight years ago when the Spurs last played a playoff game, but really the Grizzlies series wasn't that far back. I contend that the specter of a "fearsome defense with athletic lengthy defenders" will be far less of a culture shock for the Spurs than playing a great point guard who can score and pass will be for the Heat, since they haven't faced an animal like that like since March. With all due respect to George Hill, he's no Tony Parker. Tony is faster. Tony can dribble. Tony knows a few tricks. Tony also plays with a few smart guys, too.

I'd argue that the 2013 Spurs, much like the 2012 Spurs, are a superior squad to the 2012 Celtics. Parker is better than Rondo, with many more clubs in his bag. Duncan is better than Garnett. Splitter is better than Bass. I suppose they were a match-up case too?

Maybe the Heat just play close series against good teams? Could that be it? Maybe the Finals last season would've been close if Harden didn't miss a million open shots and Scott Brooks didn't play his worst player like 30 minutes a night? Just throwing it out there.

I'm not freaking out about the notion of Parker being trapped. The Spurs bigs screen too creatively for him to be limited consistently. The offense doesn't have him dribbling around for 23 seconds looking to make something happen, a sitting duck for traps. They run him off the ball around screens to mix it up. And even if he doesn't have the ball, I'll take the Spurs 4-on-3 every time. What makes their offense so great is that virtually everyone can pass, not just the point guard, and everyone is unselfish and hellbent about looking for the best possible shot (except for Gary Neal).

If the Heat defense are the sentinels, than the Spurs offense is Neo. It's that simple. If you watched Game 7 against the Pacers, you saw these rare sequences where every now and then Indy strung six, seven passes together and got a wide open three. Maybe you missed it because these looks were bookended by turnovers or stupid contested shots. Well the Spurs are smart enough and disciplined enough to get the very best of what the Pacers got, not as the exception but rather the norm. The Spurs will not lack for open shots against the Heat. Whether they knock them down or not will tell the tale.



One, I'm not so sure Battier will even be in the rotation for the Heat. He could be cooked. Two, even if he is, I think Splitter would have an advantage over him because nobody buys Battier's flops anymore. And I definitely like Splitter down low against Miller. That's laughable. Mainly though looking at Splitter from the sole prism of back-to-the-basket post game is faulty. His meat-and-potatoes is being the roll man and against those above-mentioned 4-on-3 situations, that's where he'd clean up. Splitter scores at a pretty good percentage when he's guarded by nobody, and nobody was his most common defender vs. the Grizzlies.

Defensively if Splitter can't hang with the Heat's small lineups, I'm still more than happy to go to war with Duncan-Leonard-Green-Ginobili-Parker vs. Bosh-James-x-Wade-Chalmers. I'm not saying we have a clear edge in this scenario, but if these quintets face each other I think the Spurs can hold their own, with a couple of defensive pigeons in Miami's fivesome, just as there were with Memphis'.



Yes, the Heat were so good during the regular season that they finished 1.3 points worse in scoring margin than the Thunder and were basically the same in that stat as the Spurs before San Antonio took April off. Miami won a lot of close games against a lot of crap Eastern teams, going to the mattresses twice against Orlando, against Sacramento, against the Cavs B team, trailing by 20+ against the Celtics and Knicks, so on. Hell, their 27-game win streak was snapped by a worse Chicago lineup than the starless Spurs defeated.

I'm not saying the Heat aren't good, but they are overrated, and if they've been coasting during the playoffs, then I fail to see when during the regular season they weren't coasting. I think Dwyane Wade is legitimately limited, that Bosh is basically Andrea Bargnani at this point (with better defense), and they have the same high-variance role player problems from game to game that every contender deals with. This notion that Wade and Bosh consciously or unconsciously gave less than their best for three rounds of playoffs and forced LeBron to do everything because they're lazy jerks is ridiculous. They gave what they had. It could just be that those guys peaked too early, which numerous Spurs teams have done these past six years. Furthermore, I don't think it's exactly the smartest strategy, to wear down your best player to the point of near exhaustion, just because you can. It would've been smarter to just win each series in four games and get the maximum amount of rest, if it was that easy, no?

You wanna see coasting? Go see the Spurs in April. Go see teams tanking for lottery balls. Maybe I'm naive, but I think playoff teams play hard.



In the playoffs the Spurs are shooting .362 from deep, the Heat are shooting .356. The Spurs are allowing .336, the Heat are allowing .325. Man, I hope the Spurs will be able to overcome that .005 net difference.

Ray Allen shot a whopping .350 from three (and a whopping .377 overall) in the Finals. He shot .293 from downtown in 2010 for the Celtics against the Lakers in his Finals appearance before that. He did light it up at a .524 clip in 2008 vs. LA, but I'm gonna go out on a limb and say that the "heat of the Finals lights" don't really affect Allen and he shoots what he shoots and is subject to to whims of the small-sample gods as anyone else.

Yes, Shane Battier shot .577 from three against OKC, but is that any more telling than the .350 he shot from three in seven games vs. Boston the series before that or the .273 he shot in six games vs. the Pacers the series before that? If you want to slice the micro-splits even further, you could conclude that Battier, in Game 4 of the Finals, the most important game of the series since it was the one which tilted the series firmly in Miami's favor, shot only .250 (1-of-4) from downtown. What a choker!

Your goofiest example is Miller, who was 0-of-3 from deep in the first four games of the finals and then 7-of-8 in the last one. If you want to attach meaning to that, then you might as well retire Steve Kerr's jersey at the AT&T center.

Is one game of a sample size that much less significant than five? My guess would be that Allen, Battier, Miller, etc. will all shoot somewhere close to their career norms in the Finals, and if they don't, then it's simple dumb luck and nothing as dumb as being clutch or a choker. It's random variance. Green and Bonner are right there with them in career numbers, with Ginobili and Leonard a notch below.

More significant to me is what form guys are in lately, and I'll take the ones who have good strokes going and have fresher legs.



I suppose this dovetails from LeBron's comment about being "40 or 50 times better" than he was in 2007. Now far be it for me to argue math with a dude who joined the NBA straight out of high school, but as I recall, the 2007 LeBron singlehandedly put the Billups-Hamilton-'Sheed-Prince-Big Ben Pistons away and had a 48 point effort in Game 5 of that series, scoring something like 25 points in a row.

That guy was pretty good, and the Spurs contained him in the Finals.

I wonder if James, perhaps by hypnosis, completely expunged the 2011 Finals from his memory. If he's 50 times the player he was in 2007, how much better is he now than June 2011, eleventy-billion?

James ran completely roughshod over both the Celtics and the Bulls that season and then promptly crapped the bed against Dallas. He was far worse in that series than he was against the Spurs six years ago.

I'm not saying James isn't great, because he is, and that he's not the best player in this series, because he is, but this isn't, pardon the pun, the Spurs' first rodeo and Pop and co. have been pretty good in the past at containing the other team's best guy, and if not stopping him than stopping everyone else.

Look, if Miam's big three all play well, then yes, the Heat will win. If only James plays well though and Bosh & Wade are stuck at their Pacers level, then I like the Spurs very much. If Bosh & Wade are good and we get '11 Mavericks LeBron, then I also like the Spurs very much.

Maybe if both teams were going into the series in completely equal circumstances as far as rest/injuries/play-off stress, then I'd give the Heat the edge based on having the best player and home court advantage.

However, if ever the Spurs were going to pull the upset, the 2013 playoffs have so far unfolded in the perfect scenario. The Spurs have played just 14 postseason games and have been off for nine days. That's nine days for the best coach in the planet and his staff to dissect every bit of Heat film. If those guys have any weaknesses to exploit, I'm betting that Pop has discovered it and drilled his charges on it.

Meanwhile, the Heat have just endured seven grueling games vs. a very physical Pacers team that forced James to use up a bunch of his fuel tank and knocked Wade around quite a bit too. The Spurs have their rotation set and guys know their roles. They've watched so much Heat film by now that they probably could put on a Miami jersey and run any play Spoelstra calls.

The Heat rotation, by contrast, is in total flux. Neither Miller or Battier have any idea where they stand. They've had almost no time to prepare for a Spurs team that is 180 degrees different from the one they've just played. They have almost no frame of reference for them and haven't faced Ginobili in over two years. It'll probably be like Game 3 before they figure out he's left-handed.

Also, DeJuan Blair, Nando de Colo and Tracy McGrady would've been the sixth-seventh-eighth men on the Pacers, and that has to mean something.


Boom, again. :toast


And... :lmao


LeBron James is that man. He's not only the best basketball player in the universe, he's a top five talent ever and he's in his absolute prime. He is handsome and sexy and smart and awesome and probably the greatest person in the history of people and made of candy and I want him inside of me.

[polandprzem]

Is really LJ's thread so bad that ppl thinks it's reverse jinx?
Wtf?
Or is he there to dig in the hole and keep walking in the mud?

[Yuixafun]

Attack Lebron's mind

Make him lose his composure

He has buttons that can be pressed.

He has an Ego.

[SA210]

Attack Lebron's mind

Make him lose his composure

He has buttons that can be pressed.

He has an Ego.


Short but yet so damn true :tu

[Calispursfan11]

This has to be a troll job, I mean, look at the number of responses. It's like dropping a piece of meat into a piranha tank and watching the feeding frenzy. This is merely a social experiment by TimVP. Part of him DOES seek validation that his Spurs are actually going to be competitive and could win the series, so he stirs the pot to see how much confidence others can instill in him but he doesn't think the Spurs will go down in 5. I can't believe this is his actual take. If it is, that is just sad and non-objective even if you are a complete stranger to these two NBA teams and studied their strengths and weaknesses from scratch starting today. This is almost as bad as his grizzles take so it must be a purposeful reverse jinx. Has to be.

[Amuseddaysleeper]

That's my honest view. Let's hope the actual result makes me look stupid again.

timvp, how do you feel about Cole and how well he can guard TP? Parker has been on fire these playoffs and looked damn good against the Grizzlies. The Heat however seem to have the personnel to keep up with his speed. I was surprised at how well Cole/Chalmers have done in the past on TP. Does that concern you?

[capek]

You're gonna knock me the fuck out?

I'm gonna knock you the fuck out.

http://stream1.gifsoup.com/webroot/animatedgifs/157244_o.gif

http://images.wildammo.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/08/14-henderson-bisping-gif.gif

http://24.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_ltpe8gq6gB1r4ghkoo1_400.gif

http://24.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_m1u86cItjE1qj73e2o1_500.gif

http://thebiglead.fantasysportsven.netdna-cdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/12/pacquiao-ko-marquez.jpg

http://philly.barstoolsports.com/files/2012/12/knocked-out.gif

[polandprzem]

This has to be a troll job, I mean, look at the number of responses. It's like dropping a piece of meat into a piranha tank and watching the feeding frenzy. This is merely a social experiment by TimVP. Part of him DOES seek validation that his Spurs are actually going to be competitive and could win the series, so he stirs the pot to see how much confidence others can instill in him but he doesn't think the Spurs will go down in 5. I can't believe this is his actual take. If it is, that is just sad and non-objective even if you are a complete stranger to these two NBA teams and studied their strengths and weaknesses from scratch starting today. This is almost as bad as his grizzles take so it must be a purposeful reverse jinx. Has to be.



:dramaquee













:huddle:

[Das Texan]

i'm thinking myself spurs in 6.


or more likely heat in 5 or 7.



65/35 on the spurs winning it all. would be one fucking hell of an upset.


imo

[SA210]

http://stream1.gifsoup.com/webroot/animatedgifs/157244_o.gif

http://images.wildammo.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/08/14-henderson-bisping-gif.gif

http://24.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_ltpe8gq6gB1r4ghkoo1_400.gif

http://24.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_m1u86cItjE1qj73e2o1_500.gif

http://thebiglead.fantasysportsven.netdna-cdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/12/pacquiao-ko-marquez.jpg

http://philly.barstoolsports.com/files/2012/12/knocked-out.gif


:lmao roycrikside (http://www.spurstalk.com/forums/showthread.php?p=0#post0) has brought the goods yet again

[ace3g]

I don't think timvp took this into account

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BMFS4boCUAABcrh.jpg:large

[Uncle Drew]

Last year, Miami stuggled against the Pacers in the 2nd round and a depleted Boston team took them to their limits in the ECFs. That led to many believing Miami would lose to OKC. However, Miami was a totally different team the finals and dispose of OKC in 5 games.

[Homeland Security]

:lmao roycrikside (http://www.spurstalk.com/forums/showthread.php?p=0#post0) has brought the goods yet again
Reading through roycrikside's post, I was reminded of how Hakeem Olajuwon totally dissected David Robinson in 1995. The domination was that complete. I think this thread is how timvp's legacy will be defined now. His only hope is to suffer a mild stroke, have SpursTalk implode, and then have Tim Duncan swoop in and take over the site, while sticking around five or six years as co-owner before riding off into the sunset.

Twenty years from now, ace3g will tell a local radio station that roycrikside was 'hands down' a better poster than Tim Duncan, and then the circle will be complete.

[Aztecfan03]

I don't think timvp (http://www.spurstalk.com/forums/member.php?u=8) took this into account

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BMFS4boCUAABcrh.jpg:large

i know you are focusing on the "spurs" part, but someone thinks he is a guard just like the heat fans think Kawhi is a guard.

[Brazil]

When the Heat is focused (Bosh and Wade playing and just not watching) like game 7 against Indy, Heat is a freaking machine with very very little flaws.
I agree with timvp on his breakdown but I do think Spurs will take 2 games.

[Kori Ellis]

This thread is coming through in every way I thought possible when timvp was typing it. :lmao

[FvckMavs]

Can't let him get in the $1000 bet.


This thread is coming through in every way I thought possible when timvp was typing it. :lmao

[stelleroseSPURS]

Am I the only person believing that they can sweep heat? haha x

[mookie2001]

Still a cop-out by timvp

it won't be an antijinx or troll job if the spurs lose this shit

[EVAY]

I'm not predicting in this series because I can't do it comfortably.

I fear that all Miami has to do is have LeBron attack the rim every time and either the refs will foul out our bigs, which puts us in a big hole running our offense, or else he just scores every time, which puts us in a highly pressurized position to match his scoring every possession which I don't believe will happen.

I hope that we have some defensive schemes up our sleeve that allow us to disrupt his scoring. Leonard can't contain him by himself. No one can. So we have to help on him...and that will leave others on their team open. If they miss, we win. If they don't we don't.

I am already thrilled with the Spurs this season. I just really really hope they come out on top this time, for both Timmy and Manu's sake.
And I don't care how they get it done.

[rmt]

I agree with timvp.

I don’t see the Spurs winning. Some of my thoughts:

We will find the true measure of how good/great a coach Pop is. Pop, with regards to titles and contention, I feel has been overrated. The Spurs were favorites in every finals previous and had homecourt, and even some of those teams underachieved in how long it took them to win. Plus, he’s had several other teams that were better but lost to worse opponents preventing other finals appearances. Hell, I’ve come to believe the Spurs would have lost in 03 if Dirk doesn’t get hurt. That team was an Horry rim-out from losing in round 2, and needed amazing unexpected clutch performances in game 6 of the WCF and the Finals to come from behind.

So I don’t think Pop vs. Spo is a mis-match. We’ve all seen some of Pop’s faults devastate the Spurs big-picture just as much as we’ve seen Pop’s in-game calls work brilliantly small-picture. Without homecourt, and with the worse team, I don’t think Pop is going to be winning. It’s Pop’s teams that get backdoor swept, and it’s Pop and not Phil Jackson who loses series after winning game 1.

If the Spurs pull this series out, then I could concede Pop as the best in the game, but I don’t expect that I’ll have to. Coaching the worse, underdog team without homecourt to a title this year would be his crowning achievement, but I'm not holding my breath.

What of the Budenholzer distraction? Bud has had to attend press conferences, do media rounds and radio shows, contact colleagues around the league to recruit a staff (bye-bye Chip Engelland maybe?) and talk to the few remaining Hawks players, plus the other miscellaneous items required by his new job. Where does that leave the Spurs? That leaves Brown as the only other experienced assistant on the courtside bench fully focused on the job at hand, no offense to new-to-coaching Udoka. That to me weakens Pop’s support foundation, and though it might not be damaging to the Spurs chances, I don’t see how it helps.

The Chokers can and will still choke. Bonner. Neal. I don’t trust these guys. I don’t trust Pop to get them to not choke, or to not give them the chance to choke. I sure as hell don’t trust Neal on defense. He falls down on defense more than anyone in the league. He will hurt the Spurs. Bonner’s sad history is no fluke, he is not to be trusted. I don’t trust Danny Green that much either on offense, but I am hopeful he can still be useful on defense so long as he doesn’t get abused ball-watching.

Why are Blair and Mills going to be active? Blair can’t defend anyone and just reaches for fouls nonstop. Mills serves no purpose either. I’d rather have Baynes and De Colo as emergencies than Blair and Mills. Or Neal for that matter.

Manu isn’t Manu anymore. It’s sad, as much as we all love him. It’s also true. Manu is an all-time great and a hall-of-famer, but I don’t think the Spurs can survive his seemingly routine 2-4 straight possession nightmare implosions against the Heat like they could in other rounds. Which Memphis game was it where in the last 2-3 minutes he had two straight AWFUL possessions that nearly gave the game away? Well, against the Heat, that won’t nearly give the game away, I’m afraid it WILL give the game away.

The Heat role players will go off. Haslem can do just as good a job nailing open mid-range jumpers as last year’s OKC team. Bosh too. Norris Cole is the type of player to go off when Parker is trying to rest in game. Allen is just the kind of player Neal loves to lose track of for open threes. And Miller is the exact player Green likes to drift from for the same.

--

But the only hope I have is Duncan and Splitter. The last week or so the media has asked, “how has Duncan been able to look this fresh?” And the answers have usually been about losing weight, or minutes restrictions, or ‘being on a mission’. But I suspect I know the real answer. The answer is that for the first time since playoffs of 05, Duncan played alongside a REAL big man who has shared the physical burden.

Sure, the Spurs won in 07 with the pair of Oberto and Elson, but after the PHX series that title would be a given. But Splitter is a REAL Center that has helped Duncan so much that it’s disgusting to think about the years wasted on smallball. Going small against the Mavs, or the later years of undersized, over-the-hill guys like Oberto and McDyess, the smallball of Finley or Udoka or Jefferson at PF, or the misbegotten seasons of Bonner or Blair. Or fat Diaw.

Splitter is why Duncan is able to be who he has been. And if the Spurs win this series, I am confident that we will look back and see that Splitter played so well that Pop couldn’t quit on him, and that his eased some weight from Duncan’s shoulders, freeing him to play like the legend he was before he had anchors tied to his legs, anchors named Bonner or Blair or McDyess or Udoka or Finley or Jefferson.

Seems like Pop is at the root of almost all your points. Keeping Tiago on the court, resisting the temptation of Bonner and small ball. For the first 2 games, I don't see why Pop can't shorten his rotation - they've had a lot of rest before game 1 and 2 days before game 2. Play only TD, TS, Diaw, TP, CJ, KL, Manu and Green, go after game 1 hard and put doubt/pressure on them. I also hope Pop's game plan is to stay home on the shooters and let Lebron have his (contested by Kwahi, of course). It's the role players bombing 3s that discourages the opponent. Lebron beating you is easier to stomach and maybe he gets tired, chokes or it causes problems with team mates (Wade, Bosh if they feel left out).

[dbreiden83080]

You gotta love ESPN the current headlines on Sportscenter are

Revenge
Lebron in the finals
Expectations for the Heat..

It's like they don't have an opponent.

[timvp]

...It'll probably be like Game 3 before they figure out he's left-handed. .

:lmao

Great post; hope you're right.

[Legacy]

Am I the only person believing that they can sweep heat? haha x

No. If The Spurs had HCA and less rest time, I probably would've called a full-blown homer sweep. :lol

[N0 LyF3 ScRuB]

Splitters stats against the Heat when the big three and Green didn't play: 18 points, 9 rebounds

[T Park]

:lol

No hard feelings, man. 2005 was a long time ago. I KNOW I've said some stupid shit on here as well.... Richard Jefferson comes to mind.


Low blow to HIM

[roycrikside]

Reading through roycrikside's post, I was reminded of how Hakeem Olajuwon totally dissected David Robinson in 1995. The domination was that complete. I think this thread is how timvp's legacy will be defined now. His only hope is to suffer a mild stroke, have SpursTalk implode, and then have Tim Duncan swoop in and take over the site, while sticking around five or six years as co-owner before riding off into the sunset.

Twenty years from now, ace3g will tell a local radio station that roycrikside was 'hands down' a better poster than Tim Duncan, and then the circle will be complete.

Thanks for the compliment, but I hate that analogy. Robinson played Hakeem straight up. The Rockets doubled Robinson, which they got away with because the Spurs didn't shoot the three as well as Houston did. Part of their faulty strategy was Bob "Boner" Hill's poor coaching, but another part of it was Rodman basically being a mutinous asshat.
Moreover, Elliott choked. Spurs were up 2 points late in Game 1, with Elliott, an 80+ percent FT shooter at the line and he missed both. Next possession Big Shot Bob hit the first dagger of his incredible career and boom Spurs are in a 0-1 series hole. If they win that first game, it's a completely different story.

Really, the '95 Rockets lucked out. Both in the WCF and the NBA Finals they were down late with the other team's best FT shooter at the stripe to salt it away and both times the opponent missed both shots.

[#1spursfanNvegas]

I agree with everything Timvp said, but i think all his points are obvious to any basketball fan who follow the NBA closely. If us basketball fans can see those points, I am sure as hell coach Pop have seen, studied, and already made adjustments and counter-attacks on those miami heat strengths and exploit their weaknesses. I think thats where this series will all come down to, coaching. Pop's not gonna let 2012 WCF happen again. I trust in Pop and the Spurs to pull off this one!

[benefactor]

This is such a hard series to call...which is why I went with Spurs in 7. Can the Spurs put together a good enough defensive plan to keep James from killing them? Can the Heat shift into and stay in that other gear that looks like the Game 7 vs. Indy? Will Manu be Supermanu? Will the Heat role players shoot like they did last year? Will Splitter make the Heat pay for going small? It almost seems like any outcome from the Heat in 5 to the Spurs in 5 would not be surprising. Overall, I agree with those who said winning would be extra sweet but just being back in Finals is an incredible feeling regardless. There is no shame in losing James and the Heat...but there would be legendary glory in beating them.

[DarrinS]

This thread is coming through in every way I thought possible when timvp was typing it. :lmao

Heat in 3, tbh

[roycrikside]

This is such a hard series to call...which is why I went with Spurs in 7. Can the Spurs put together a good enough defensive plan to keep James from killing them? Can the Heat shift into and stay in that other gear that looks like the Game 7 vs. Indy? Will Manu be Supermanu? Will the Heat role players shoot like they did last year? Will Splitter make the Heat pay for going small? It almost seems like any outcome from the Heat in 5 to the Spurs in 5 would not be surprising. Overall, I agree with those who said winning would be extra sweet but just being back in Finals is an incredible feeling regardless. There is no shame in losing James and the Heat...but there would be legendary glory in beating them.

I don't get the logic of anyone picking Spurs in 7, tbh. While it would be great to see (and heart attack-inducing), you're basically calling for something to happen that hasn't happened in baseball since 1979 and in basketball since 1978. It's almost impossible for a road team to win the a Final game 7.

[MR-Clutch]

Spurs in 5. If they lose it'll be in 7.

[Homeland Security]

Thanks for the compliment, but I hate that analogy. Robinson played Hakeem straight up. The Rockets doubled Robinson, which they got away with because the Spurs didn't shoot the three as well as Houston did. Part of their faulty strategy was Bob "Boner" Hill's poor coaching, but another part of it was Rodman basically being a mutinous asshat.
Moreover, Elliott choked. Spurs were up 2 points late in Game 1, with Elliott, an 80+ percent FT shooter at the line and he missed both. Next possession Big Shot Bob hit the first dagger of his incredible career and boom Spurs are in a 0-1 series hole. If they win that first game, it's a completely different story.

Really, the '95 Rockets lucked out. Both in the WCF and the NBA Finals they were down late with the other team's best FT shooter at the stripe to salt it away and both times the opponent missed both shots.
Naw, the analogy holds. Everybody is ganging up on timvp, you have GNSF representing crappy Spurs role players who can't shoot the three, you have Fabbs, silverblk mystix and co. playing the role of Bob Hill, and me as Dennis Rodman.

Not to mention how Solid D choked by reposting that thing about Phil Jackson picking the Spurs.

[benefactor]

I don't get the logic of anyone picking Spurs in 7, tbh. While it would be great to see (and heart attack-inducing), you're basically calling for something to happen that hasn't happened in baseball since 1979 and in basketball since 1978. It's almost impossible for a road team to win the a Final game 7.
Yeah I know it hasn't happened in a long time, but it will happen again eventually and if it's going to happen this year is as good as any to pick it. The Spurs really haven't had any problem bringing less than their best on the road in these playoffs. I'd give them damn close to a 50/50 shot going into a Game 7 in Miami...especially if the match ups had worked in their favor throughout the series.

[letmk]

Unlike WCF, I don't have legit reasons to rebutt LJ's take. Just pray for the miracle.

[rmt]

Diaw better be aggressive - they'll be leaving him open since he's so reluctant to shoot.

[benefactor]

Furthermore...winning a game 7 in Miami is more likely than...say...a 37 year old Duncan still putting up per minute numbers like he did in his prime and helping anchor a defense that has gotten the Spurs back to the Finals. Might as well keep pushing the chips to the center. Seems to have worked out so far. :toast

[Homeland Security]

Yeah I know it hasn't happened in a long time, but it will happen again eventually and if it's going to happen this year is as good as any to pick it. The Spurs really haven't had any problem bringing less than their best on the road in these playoffs. I'd give them damn close to a 50/50 shot going into a Game 7 in Miami...especially if the match ups had worked in their favor throughout the series.
That wasn't his point, probably. His point, probably, was that Spurs in 6 makes more sense than Spurs in 7, if you're picking the Spurs.

[024]

I agree with what Timvp said. This series basically boils down to Green, Bonner, and Neal's knocking down 3's on the biggest stage and Tiago taking advantage of his mismatch. The Heat will blitz Parker and the Spurs should be able to find the open man. The question is, will the open man knock down their 3's/take advantage of his mismatch or wilt in the limelight?

End game execution will also be a problem. The Spurs' offense lives and dies with Tony Parker. When the Heat switch Lebron on Parker, who else can create? If Lebron shuts down Parker, it'll basically be up to a 37 year old Duncan throwing up prayer shots. Judging from Parker's past struggles with long and athletic defenders, it is very likely Lebron or even Wade can shut him down when needed.

And defending the Heat will require flawless execution. With Lebron's elite passing ability that rivals or even surpasses the elite point guards of the game, the Spurs can't make a single rotation error. When Duncan rotates to help Leonard stop Lebron driving to the rim, you can bet Lebron will find an open Anderson or Bosh. The Spurs defense looked superb when they attacked Randolph but that's because he's a terrible passer and no one on the Grizzlies could hit a long jumper or 3. That is not the case here, the Heat are full of long range shooters and have one of the best passers in basketball delivering them the ball.

Lastly, I can see turnovers haunting this team... and I'm looking at Ginobili. If Manu continues committing his careless turnovers along with Neal and possibly a nervous Cory Joseph, Wade and Lebron will have a field day in transition. The Grizzlies never could fully capitalize on the turnovers when Tony Allen and Bayless were running the break. It looked like an abomination. But Wade and Lebron are the best in the league at converting turnovers into transition points so every turnover will hurt very badly.

[SA210]

Am I the only person believing that they can sweep heat? haha x


No, only reason I didn't pick it is bc I figure refs will screw us at least one game, and maybe Pop plays Bonner too much.

[elemento]

I agree with what Timvp said. This series basically boils down to Green, Bonner, and Neal's knocking down 3's on the biggest stage and Tiago taking advantage of his mismatch. The Heat will blitz Parker and the Spurs should be able to find the open man. The question is, will the open man knock down their 3's/take advantage of his mismatch or wilt in the limelight?

End game execution will also be a problem. The Spurs' offense lives and dies with Tony Parker. When the Heat switch Lebron on Parker, who else can create? If Lebron shuts down Parker, it'll basically be up to a 37 year old Duncan throwing up prayer shots. Judging from Parker's past struggles with long and athletic defenders, it is very likely Lebron or even Wade can shut him down when needed.

And defending the Heat will require flawless execution. With Lebron's elite passing ability that rivals or even surpasses the elite point guards of the game, the Spurs can't make a single rotation error. When Duncan rotates to help Leonard stop Lebron driving to the rim, you can bet Lebron will find an open Anderson or Bosh. The Spurs defense looked superb when they attacked Randolph but that's because he's a terrible passer and no one on the Grizzlies could hit a long jumper or 3. That is not the case here, the Heat are full of long range shooters and have one of the best passers in basketball delivering them the ball.

Lastly, I can see turnovers haunting this team... and I'm looking at Ginobili. If Manu continues committing his careless turnovers along with Neal and possibly a nervous Cory Joseph, Wade and Lebron will have a field day in transition. The Grizzlies never could fully capitalize on the turnovers when Tony Allen and Bayless were running the break. It looked like an abomination. But Wade and Lebron are the best in the league at converting turnovers into transition points so every turnover will hurt very badly.

When they put Lebron on Parker, Pop has to make an adjustment, putting Manu and taking out Green. Manu can split the creation part with Tony and he is the only player capable of doing that in our team.

I think SA will struggle to defend the Heat when they go small. The BIG 3 + Battier and Allen is a nightmare for SA to defend.

[SA210]

I don't get the logic of anyone picking Spurs in 7, tbh. While it would be great to see (and heart attack-inducing), you're basically calling for something to happen that hasn't happened in baseball since 1979 and in basketball since 1978. It's almost impossible for a road team to win the a Final game 7.

I agree, all this talk of a game 7 Spurs win is kind of ridiculous to me. If Spurs win, they gotta do it in 4-6 games. Road team in Game 7..refs will make the difference, and I don't want the Spurs in that position. If it gets to 7, I don't trust the NBA with Spurs on road in Miami. I see this as kind of like the last fight of Rocky 3. Don't let it get to the last round. No game 7. Take care of business early.