GOP Convention

[boutons_deux]

Jon Stewart's still got it (but still pronounces poorly)

http://variety.com/2016/tv/news/jon-stewart-to-trump-supporters-you-dont-own-america-1201820140/

[boutons_deux]

...

[boutons_deux]

Trump Campaign Manager Makes Astonishingly Sexist Argument For Why Women Should Vote For Trump


http://cdn.thinkprogress.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/21202925/AP_16198706936617-1024x683.jpg

“Many women feel they can’t afford their lives, their husbands can’t afford to be paying for the family bills,” Manafort said.

Matthews, “Is that 21st century talking? Wives are concerned about how their husbands are doing at work?”

“Because they can’t afford their lives anymore. That’s the point. For some people, it’s about jobs,” Manafort said.

He also noted that he could “speak personally” to the issue of wives being upset at their husbands’ income. ??? :lol

Manafort may not realize it, but women make up about half the labor force, and have contributed millions in GDP since they began entering the workforce.

In fact, in about 38 percent (http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/how-many-women-earn-more-than-their-husbands/) of heterosexual marriages, women make more than their husbands.

the campaign manager argued (http://thinkprogress.org/politics/2016/07/19/3799622/manafort-hillary-sexist/) that the only reason the story was spreading was because Hillary Clinton felt “threatened” by another woman and wanted to “take her down.” CAT FIGHT!

http://thinkprogress.org/politics/2016/07/21/3800966/manafort-trump-women-husbands/

Trash "hires the best (trashiest) people"

[hater]

trump has no idea on what foreign policy is

Shillary killed our ambassador

[boutons_deux]

White Nationalists Love Trump’s Convention: ‘GOP Is Becoming The De Facto White Party’

( becoming? "HAS BEEN", FOR DECADES! )

VDare Celebrates Its Tweets Being Featured At RNC: “This Is Great Fun!”

VDare Writer: “The Trump Convention Has Its Thumbs On The Evil Party’s Jugular.”

White Nationalist Richard Spencer Responds To Criticism That GOP Is Too White: “Why Shouldn’t We Have A Party?”

White Nationalist Video Blogger Ramzpaul: “GOP Is Becoming The De Facto White Party. Nothing Wrong With That.”

Daily Stormer: “Purpose Of The Convention” Is To Crush Trump’s “Internal Enemies” And Then Focus On “Clinton And The Jew-Communist Democrat Party.”

Daily Stormer’s Andrew Anglin On GOP Convention: “On The Inside, The Whole Thing Is Very White. It’s Deeply Refreshing.”

Daily Stormer On Melania Trump Criticism: “The Filthy Jews Will Always Pounce On The Aryan Female.”

Daily Stormer: The “Filthy Kike Media” Has Been Obsessing Over “A Few Lines From Melania’s Speech Which These Jews Claim She Stole From Monkey Michelle.”

David Duke Defends Melania Trump By Attacking “Jewish Media Insiders.”

Stormfront’s Don Black: Melania Trump Speech Controversy Helps Trump Because Michelle Obama Is Black.

http://www.nationalmemo.com/white-nationalists-love-trumps-convention-gop-is-becoming-the-de-facto-white-party/

Donny Trash running to be President of ALL the people ( ... only who are white, racist, xenophobic, paranoid assholes)

[boutons_deux]

http://www.msnbc.com/sites/msnbc/files/styles/ratio--3-2--1_5x-1245x830/public/578548846.jpg?itok=lvduQ0zM

Trump’s bold vision: Make America Hide Under the Bed Again

Fear is a powerful instinct.

Fear is so potent, and the innate drive to protect one’s self from harm is so overpowering, that it can override almost every other instinct, including those related to intellect and judgment.

Which is why Donald Trump desperately wants to frighten you.

The obvious problem with the Republican presidential nominee’s convention speech last night is that it was less a speech and more a series of strung together scary falsehoods.

In the actual United States,

crime rates have dropped, but Trump insists they’ve increased.

In our reality, illegal border crossings have fallen, but in Trump’s mind, they’ve skyrocketed.

For those who care about facts, the United States has fairly low tax rates among industrialized democracies, but in Trump’s version of reality, “America is one of the highest-taxed nations in the world.”

The truth is that the killing of police officers in the line of duty is down, but Trump nevertheless wants you to believe the exact opposite.

In reality, Iran is not even close to the path to nuclear weapons. In Trump’s mind, “Iran is on the path to nuclear weapons.”

Early on in his speech, the GOP nominee declared, “[H]ere, at our convention, there will be no lies. We will honor the American people with the truth, and nothing else.”

Trump then lied in literally the next sentence.

http://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-show/trumps-bold-vision-make-america-hide-under-the-bed-again?cid=sm_fb_maddow

Poor Donny Trash, as shitty a politician as he is a human being.

[DarrinS]

Speaking of scared, check out HuffPo front page. :lol

[pgardn]

Thanks for the link (although I gotta admit I laughed when I read June 22, 2016, tbh). I haven't read it entirely yet, but I will.

I wish it would actually be a bill, personally, not the hodge-podge of small bills in the echo chamber that's the House, trying to trim or impair Barrycare here or there.

We have already been through this one.
No numbers, projections.
The Republicans are not going to put out anything serious because it will be criticized. Any plan will be criticized if you start putting numbers in.

If if this was easy it would be done by now.

[boutons_deux]

Speaking of scared, check out HuffPo front page. :lol

fantastic pic of your favorite ogre.

[pgardn]

It is interesting to note that with the worst candidates we will probably have the highest turnout.

This election is so rife with scare tactics people think the world is going to end. They will vote. Funny how that works. Rarely do we say, "that's a great idea, thats good policy and its clearly doable" We thrive on negatives so that's what we get. We get no clear plans and numbers on bombastic declarations that are based on temporary public temper tantrums.

[boutons_deux]

It is interesting to note that with the worst candidates we will probably have the highest turnout.

exactly. the "social issue" voters have much more intensity than the average voter. That's how the Repugs have conned them into voting Repug and screwing themselves so badly for so long that they've revolted over to Donny Trash.

[CosmicCowboy]

Sounds like you guys won't even need to vote in November since you have already declared Hillary the winner.

[rmt]

It is interesting to note that with the worst candidates we will probably have the highest turnout.

This election is so rife with scare tactics people think the world is going to end. They will vote. Funny how that works. Rarely do we say, "that's a great idea, thats good policy and its clearly doable" We thrive on negatives so that's what we get. We get no clear plans and numbers on bombastic declarations that are based on temporary public temper tantrums.

Well, if there's great turnout, that's usually to the Democrats' benefit, isn't it?

[Fabbs]

:lol Trump doesn't even try to tell the truth.
FactChecking Trump’s Big Speech

http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/factchecking-trump%E2%80%99s-big-speech/ar-BBuEx5G?li=BBmkt5R&ocid=spartandhp

[pgardn]

Well, if there's great turnout, that's usually to the Democrats' benefit, isn't it?

Usually.

But Trump has clearly got a new group of voters involved.

[pgardn]

Sounds like you guys won't even need to vote in November since you have already declared Hillary the winner.

What?

[Fabbs]

We thrive on negatives so that's what we get.
Yes.
A good number of people are voting against Trump or against Hillary.
Vs voting for either of these.
I would say 33% of the ballots will be cast this way. More?

[Fabbs]

George Harrison's estate is furious "Here Comes the Sun" was used for Ivanka's big entrance. They say, "The unauthorized use of #HereComestheSun at the #RNCinCLE is offensive and against the wishes of the George Harrison Estate."

The statement goes on, "If it had been Beware of Darkness, then we MAY have approved it! #TrumpYourself."

[CosmicCowboy]

What?

Speaking to the gleeful Hillary supporters in here that are declaring it over already.

Personally I think it will be a lot closer than they think.

If there was a take away message from this convention it was that voting for Hillary was voting for the same entrenched special interests and more of the same stagnation.

I'm not claiming that Trump can really fix the problem but like addiction, the cure starts with admitting there is a problem.

[Killakobe81]

It is interesting to note that with the worst candidates we will probably have the highest turnout.

This election is so rife with scare tactics people think the world is going to end. They will vote. Funny how that works. Rarely do we say, "that's a great idea, thats good policy and its clearly doable" We thrive on negatives so that's what we get. We get no clear plans and numbers on bombastic declarations that are based on temporary public temper tantrums.

Amen. What a load of crock last night. I dont next week will be much better. Only tangible plan laid out was negotiating foreign trade agreements but even that was light on details.

Ahh well.

[Killakobe81]

Speaking to the gleeful Hillary supporters in here that are declaring it over already.

Personally I think it will be a lot closer than they think.

If there was a take away message from this convention it was that voting for Hillary was voting for the same entrenched special interests and more of the same stagnation.

I'm not claiming that Trump can really fix the problem but like addiction, the cure starts with admitting there is a problem.

Trump may damn well win.
Hillary is no great choice she is at best the lessor of two evils.
The DNC and RNC should be ashamed two trot out these two as candidates.
I expect much better in 2020 ...or should say hope for ...

[Spurminator]

Hopefully their next candidate will be as much of an anti-establishment candidate without being quite as much of a sociopath. The move in a more socially liberal direction is promising, though I think it's probably an exception more than a trend.

[Killakobe81]

But that's the GOP as a whole, and the Dems too to a large extent. Romney made really shitty decisions, like picking a terrible VP, that I think even scared some of the base, and couldn't shake freaking Joe Biden on a debate. Ryan wanted to privatize Medicare, talked up school vouchers. The thing is, that's basically what you hear pretty much every time from the Republican platform. I haven't looked this year, but I doubt it's much different. Heck, do you still know what the GOP as a whole wants to replace Barrycare with? It's been what, 6 years?

I suppose he thought "repeal" was going to be enough to propel him, like it did for Congress in 2010. He was even running against a president that already faltered on some of his promises.

I still can't believe they bungled that election, tbh, but they managed.

Frankly, from this cycle, and even if you consider his ideas lunacy, the only guy that really has said how he's going to pay for this or that has been Bernie. Skimping on details has been the norm for a while now.

Troof.

[CosmicCowboy]

Hopefully their next candidate will be as much of an anti-establishment candidate without being quite as much of a sociopath. The move in a more socially liberal direction is promising, though I think it's probably an exception more than a trend.

Yeah, basically Trump has cherry picked the platform and ignored the stupidest stuff, just like Hillary will do. I'm pretty confident if Trump gets elected he won't be seriously pushing abortion bans and gay bashing.

[hater]

Hey folks I got a few tens of thousands of dollars to burn. Where can I bet on the next president.

[Killakobe81]

Hey folks I got a few tens of thousands of dollars to burn. Where can I bet on the next president.

Not sure but bet Trump. You will get better odds and he has a shot ...

[hater]

Not sure but bet Trump. You will get better odds and he has a shot ...

Of course. Betting on Shillary is like burning that money

[Killakobe81]

Of course. Betting on Shillary is like burning that money

I dont think either has won anything yet but Trump has momentum and fear mongering on his side tbh

[ducks]

Republican pollster Frank Luntz turned to Twitter late Thursday night to predict that the Republican National Convention would propel Donald Trump ahead of or near Hillary Clinton in the polls within a few days.

"Mark my words," Luntz tweeted, "This speech will put Trump even or ahead of Hillary in polls by Monday, when the Democratic convention begins."

Luntz's prediction came after Trump formally accepted the Republican nomination for president in his Thursday-night speech.

[boutons_deux]

Republican pollster Frank Luntz turned to Twitter late Thursday night to predict that the Republican National Convention would propel Donald Trump ahead of or near Hillary Clinton in the polls within a few days.

"Mark my words," Luntz tweeted, "This speech will put Trump even or ahead of Hillary in polls by Monday, when the Democratic convention begins."

Luntz's prediction came after Trump formally accepted the Republican nomination for president in his Thursday-night speech.

:lol wishful thinking by a Repug loser

[boutons_deux]

TRUMP SUCCEEDS IN DELIVERING SPEECH NO ONE WILL WANT TO PLAGIARIZE

CLEVELAND — Donald J. Trump was jubilant Thursday night after accomplishing his goal of delivering a speech that no one will ever want to plagiarize, Trump aides confirmed.

According to his staff, Trump and his speechwriters had been

working overtime during the week to create a tirade that was sufficiently bloated, unhinged, and terrifying to discourage potential plagiarists

from reusing excerpts in the future.

Paul Manafort, Trump’s campaign manager, said that, right until the hour the candidate took the stage, the billionaire’s writing team was

scrubbing the speech of any marginally coherent passages that might prove tempting to plagiarists.
“There was one sentence toward the beginning that had traces of humanity and rational thought,” Manafort said. “Fortunately, we caught it in time.”

Watching from backstage on Thursday night, Manafort and the speechwriters erupted into a flurry of high-fives when it became clear that the speech was the rambling, demented mess they had worked so hard to create.

“From the moment Mr. Trump started shrieking and his entire head turned red, we knew we had nailed it,” he said.

Harland Dorrinson, a leading plagiarism expert, shared the campaign’s assessment that the final draft of Trump’s

seventy-minute rant was too repellent to entice even the least discerning plagiarist.

“I can’t see anyone lifting anything from that speech unless he wanted to sound totally batshit crazy,” he said.

http://www.newyorker.com/humor/borowitz-report/trump-succeeds-in-delivering-speech-no-one-will-want-to-plagiarize?mbid=nl_072216%20Borowitz%20Newsletter% 20(1)&CNDID=43758549&spMailingID=9241802&spUserID=MTQzNTg5MDIwMjAwS0&spJobID=961768477&spReportId=OTYxNzY4NDc3S0 (http://www.newyorker.com/humor/borowitz-report/trump-succeeds-in-delivering-speech-no-one-will-want-to-plagiarize?mbid=nl_072216%20Borowitz%20Newsletter% 20(1)&CNDID=43758549&spMailingID=9241802&spUserID=MTQzNTg5MDIwMjAwS0&spJobID=961768477&spReportId=OTYxNzY4NDc3S0)

[boutons_deux]

the GOP candidate went out of his way to place a special emphasis on crime.

There is, however, a problem: crime rates are going down, not up. Though perspectives are often skewed by high-profile incidents, most Americans are safer from crime now than they’ve been in a generation.

For Trump, that makes lying necessary (http://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-show/trumps-bold-vision-make-america-hide-under-the-bed-again) – if voters aren’t terrified, he’s going to lose – but for the Trump campaign, there’s another rhetorical option available. New York magazine flagged this gem (http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2016/07/manafort-fbi-crime-statistics-cant-be-trusted.html#):


[W]hen CNN’s Jake Tapper confronted Trump campaign manager Paul Manafort with the inconvenient facts about how historically safe most Americans are, Manafort chose to attack the messenger. Which is to say, to attack the Federal Bureau of Investigation.

“Empirically, according to FBI statistics, crime rates have been going down for decades,” Tapper said. “How can Republicans make the argument that, somehow, it’s more dangerous today, when the facts don’t back that up?”

“People don’t feel safe in their neighborhoods. I don’t know what statistics you’re talking about,” Manafort replied. “The FBI is suspect these days, after what they just did with Hillary Clinton.”


http://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-show/team-trump-has-no-use-reliable-crime-data?cid=sm_fb_maddow

[boutons_deux]

Fact-checking Donald Trump’s acceptance speech at the 2016 RNC

Here is a rundown of 25 of Trump’s key claims — and how they differ from reality — arranged by subject
.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fact-checker/wp/2016/07/22/fact-checking-donald-trumps-acceptance-speech-at-the-2016-rnc/?wpisrc=nl_most-draw7&wpmm=1

:lol

pep rally? :lol Lie Fest! :lol

[Aztecfan03]

Whatever Trump did with the pledge had no bearing (separate issue) on Kasich, Jeb and Cruz signing their pledge and breaking it. Republicans don't like that he came to the convention and broke his word in such a public manner when they're trying to unite the party - else stay home and don't sabotage the convention.
The pledge depending on everyone agreed to it, once Trump ended it, it was no longer valid.

[DarrinS]

This interview went well :lmao


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZxcAN0t6GrI

[boutons_deux]

Donald Trump’s Angry, Dark Speech Caps Off a Disastrous RNC

The only thing Republicans could seemingly agree on is that Hillary Clinton belongs in prison.

Cleveland — In the America depicted by Donald Trump’s dystopian acceptance speech Thursday night,

it is blackest midnight in the land of the once-free,

unimaginably far from morning.

The unlikely GOP presidential nominee rejected suggestions that he give a unifying speech that reached for the center.

Instead, he described

a country rocked by crime,

riven by race,

menaced by terrorists, and

overrun by illegal immigrants.

Trump out-Nixoned Richard Nixon, promising to be a “law and order” president just like our 37th.

He defined Hillary Clinton as just another criminal who will coddle the many other criminals who “threaten our very way of life.”

At this fractured, low-energy convention in the Democratic stronghold of Cleveland, a GOP tribe still deeply divided over Trump could

only agree on one thing: Clinton is a lying fraud who belongs in prison.

The anti-Clinton bloodlust was in full force Thursday night. Whereas Mitt Romney’s 2012 GOP convention had “You built that!” as a unifying, if lame, theme,

Trump’s 2016 convention had just one grim and angry point—“Lock her up!”

One convention speaker after another went after Clinton, each more vicious than the last. On Tuesday, Trump-neutered New Jersey Governor Chris Christie reached to get his manhood back by presiding over a mock trial of Clinton, where he presented her alleged misdeeds and let the audience chant, “Guilty!” I think if Clinton had been in the arena personally, the crowd would have set her on fire—Secret Service be damned.

Thursday night was Trump’s chance to fry Clinton. Wearing a classy black suit with a dazzling red tie, his hair whipped into a special golden soufflé, the color of an Oscar, Trump promised to remember “the forgotten American,” saying, “I am your voice.”

But he

was a voice of fear and anger,

a loud, screaming voice

promising retribution for the crimes that have laid the nation low,

including the “terrible, terrible crimes” committed by Clinton.

He shouted at the country,

red-faced,

for an endless 76 minutes.

https://www.thenation.com/article/donald-trumps-angry-dark-speech-caps-off-a-disaster-rnc/

Trash! :lol

Trash supporters! :lol

Repugs are so fucked! :lol

[DMX7]

The pledge depending on everyone agreed to it, once Trump ended it, it was no longer valid.

The pledge exposed almost the whole party in one fell swoop. Hardly anyone who didn't want a job from Trump kept the pledge!

[Aztecfan03]

Getting shot by the cops for.putting hands up is something they egged on? stfu

You don't still believe the michael brown "hands up, don't shoot" lie, do you?

[Aztecfan03]

They fucked up when they spent 3 nights bashing Hillary non stop and undermining their own themes of the nights.

They also had no substance. No idea what policies they want to do, or anything close to that. Just more we will build walls but won't tell you how much it will cost, etc.

Complete and utter disaster.

"Not Hillary" is the only thing Trump has to go on.

Just like "Not Trump" should be the only thing Hillary has to go on. (It isn't because of all the mindless liberal sycophants)

[boutons_deux]

Conservative Heads Explode at Ivanka Trump's Speech Calling for Equal Pay for Women

Where does the would-be first daughter get off suggesting equal pay and affordable childcare on the stage of the RNC?

Small note:

Her father's campaign is reportedly paying women staffers 35 percent less (https://www.bostonglobe.com/news/politics/2016/06/04/donald-trump-campaign-pays-women-less-than-men/VIu0v2MUJiHqhvc5C0W5dO/story.html) than the men.

Not to mention the fact that the notion of equal pay for women and affordable childcare is completely AWOL from the Republican platform.

Details details.

http://www.alternet.org/election-2016/conservative-heads-explode-ivanka-trumps-speech-calling-equal-pay-women

And proud gay Peter Thiel?

(the party of) God still HATES FAGS

[spurraider21]

This wage gap shit again? Speaking of debunked...

[boutons_deux]

This wage gap shit again? Speaking of debunked...

not debunked, except by Fox news/Repugs/BigCorp

[spurraider21]

not debunked, except by Fox news/Repugs/BigCorpPretty sure I remember even you calling the wage gap a myth

[boutons_deux]

Pretty sure I remember even you calling the wage gap a myth

Your memory is as faulty as your takes

[ducks]

Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump has pulled nearly even with Democratic rival Hillary Clinton for the first time since May, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll taken over the course of the Republican National Convention in Cleveland this week.

The July 18 to 22 national online poll found that 41 percent of likely voters supported Clinton, while 38 percent supported Trump. Given the poll's credibility interval of about 4 percentage points, Trump and Clinton should be considered to be about even in the race.





Just before Republicans opened the convention on Monday, Trump had trailed Clinton by nearly 10 percentage points in the poll.

[FuzzyLumpkins]

Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump has pulled nearly even with Democratic rival Hillary Clinton for the first time since May, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll taken over the course of the Republican National Convention in Cleveland this week.

The July 18 to 22 national online poll found that 41 percent of likely voters supported Clinton, while 38 percent supported Trump. Given the poll's credibility interval of about 4 percentage points, Trump and Clinton should be considered to be about even in the race.

Just before Republicans opened the convention on Monday, Trump had trailed Clinton by nearly 10 percentage points in the poll.

Before the convention you were showing polls showing him around the same point. IOW, where is the convention bump?

[TheSanityAnnex]

:lol today's polls

[ducks]

Before the convention you were showing polls showing him around the same point. IOW, where is the convention bump?

that poll had him behind 10

[Reck]

Before the convention you were showing polls showing him around the same point. IOW, where is the convention bump?

The bumnp is he's not getting embarrassed by being down 12-10 points nationally.

[CosmicCowboy]

National popularity doesn't matter as much as winning about 5 swing states.

[rmt]

National popularity doesn't matter as much as winning about 5 swing states.

4 will do it if they are FL, OH, PA and NC (assuming he holds on to the traditional repub states). Fivethirtyeight has it 58.7% to 41.3% Hillary now - creeping closer - for so long it was 78-22.

[Pelicans78]

4 will do it if they are FL, OH, PA and NC (assuming he holds on to the traditional repub states). Fivethirtyeight has it 58.7% to 41.3% Hillary now - creeping closer - for so long it was 78-22.

But those won't matter if he loses Virginia. And PA is traditionally blue lately.

[ElNono]

We have already been through this one.
No numbers, projections.
The Republicans are not going to put out anything serious because it will be criticized. Any plan will be criticized if you start putting numbers in.

If if this was easy it would be done by now.

It isn't hard. What you're saying is that they fear critique for putting their ideas out there, that's terrible. Critique is ok, should let you build on it, or allow you to defend your ideas. Install the debate, which is how we should be constructing things.

Otherwise, you're only talking to yourself. That's pretty useless.

[ElNono]

But those won't matter if he loses Virginia. And PA is traditionally blue lately.

Florida also has been handing team blue some wins the last few prez elections. That's why demographic shifts do matter.

[Reck]

4 will do it if they are FL, OH, PA and NC (assuming he holds on to the traditional repub states). Fivethirtyeight has it 58.7% to 41.3% Hillary now - creeping closer - for so long it was 78-22.

He's going to lose Florida, might lose some traditioanlly red states. He might win Ohio though and although he's closer than I would like in PA, he's going to lose that, too.

No way does Trump win all the swing states. That's crazy talk.

[CosmicCowboy]

He's going to lose Florida, might lose some traditioanlly red states. He might win Ohio though and although he's closer than I would like in PA, he's going to lose that, too.

No way does Trump win all the swing states. That's crazy talk.


polls have him ten points ahead in Florida.

[ElNono]

polls have him ten points ahead in Florida.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/fl/florida_trump_vs_clinton-5635.html

[Reck]

polls have him ten points ahead in Florida.

LOL What El said.

So many of you get hung up on single polls. Its so short sighted.

The aggregates polling has her average ahead of him there. Although I will give you that he's cut into that average by a good bit. Still she is ahead in the averages in pretty much all the swings states you talked about.

[Reck]

http://i63.tinypic.com/1z57u4m.jpg

[ElNono]

Polls are somewhat meaningless right now anyways, especially those that are within the margin of error. I know it feels this election has been going on forever, but there's still quite a bit to go until November.

[rmt]

From fivethirtyeight:

Arizona R+4.2
NC R+1.3
FL D+0.1
IA D+0.2
OH D+0.2
NV D+0.6
NH D+0.6
PA D+1.9
VA D+2.8
CO D+3.4
MN D+4.4

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

[ducks]

From fivethirtyeight:

Arizona R+4.2
NC R+1.3
FL D+0.1
IA D+0.2
OH D+0.2
NV D+0.6
NH D+0.6
PA D+1.9
VA D+2.8
CO D+3.4
MN D+4.4

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/


This election is very close u take Florida to trump and remove it from Clinton
He wins
Very close right now

[rmt]

If Trump gets NC, FL, IA, OH, NV and NH (but not PA), it'll be a 269-269 tie - then the House decides. I'm not sure but I think RCP does an average and fivethirtyeight does a weighted average (I guess most recent is weighted more?).

[Reck]

This election is very close u take Florida to trump and remove it from Clinton
He wins
Very close right now

Florida is not the end all. He can win that state and lose the rest and he loses big. He needs Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania. At the very least.

[rmt]

For certain, Dems have big electoral college advantage. Trump's path is much smaller.

[Reck]

From fivethirtyeight:

Arizona R+4.2
NC R+1.3
FL D+0.1
IA D+0.2
OH D+0.2
NV D+0.6
NH D+0.6
PA D+1.9
VA D+2.8
CO D+3.4
MN D+4.4

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

I like these guys but their prediction is iffy. They dont do pollings at all. They just do random simulations and see what comes up. Kind of like lotto. LOL

I'll stick with live phone calls polling, imo.

[ElNono]

I like these guys but their prediction is iffy. They dont do pollings at all. They just do random simulations and see what comes up. Kind of like lotto. LOL

I'll stick with live phone calls polling, imo.

Actually, they do analytics on actual polls. Instead of taking just the raw poll numbers at a given time, they statistically calculate trends, etc from them.

It's akin to advanced stats, basically. They're all built from raw stats.

[ducks]

Donald Trump is gaining support across the battleground states following the GOP convention last week, according to the new CBS News Battleground Tracker Poll.

Trump has 42 percent support across the 11 battleground states surveyed — up from 40 percent he had last week before of the convention.

Hillary Clinton has 41 percent support, unchanged from last week's poll.

According to the poll, 55 percent of Republicans said Trump's message at the convention made them feel hopeful. About 40 percent said it made them feel enthusiastic.

He did less well among independents. Of that group, 32 percent said it made them feel hopeful and 25 percent said it made them feel enthusiastic. Another 32 percent of independents said they felt scared.

The poll found that 46 percent of Republicans said they became "much" more positive about Trump after the convention.

Among independents, only 23 percent said they came away feeling much more positive and among moderates, only 16 percent said the same.

The poll used 2,131 registered voters across 11 battleground states including Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, North Carolina, New Hampshire, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin.

[boutons_deux]

Trash sees a convention bump in red/slave states? :lol

[boutons_deux]

Pence is just another Kock Bros whore, a tool of the VRWC oligarchy.

"Over the years, the Koch network has contributed large amounts of money to Governor Pence, who has pursued a legislative agenda straight out of the Koch-ALEC playbook.

In terms of individual donations, David Koch's $300,000 makes him the third largest donor, and Senior Vice President of AFP and General Counsel of Koch Industries Mark Holden's $202,500 makes him the sixth.

And Pence is scheduled to be a "featured guest" at the Koch network's semiannual donor retreat to be held at a resort in Colorado July 30-August 1, 2016

When Marco Rubio failed to win the Presidential primary, top Koch operative Marc Short started advising Pence. Short joins the 2016 Trump-Pence campaign as Pence's communication advisor.

"Marc is a friend and we had the opportunity to work together when I was serving in the Congress of the United States, and I have immense respect for his integrity and his judgment," said (http://www.politico.com/story/2014/08/mike-pence-koch-brothers-americans-for-prosperity-110440) Pence at a Koch event in 2014."

http://www.truth-out.org/news/item/36950-koch-brothers-fingerprints-can-be-found-all-over-gop-convention

[hitmanyr2k]

Trump's bump for his VP pick and convention are anemic at best and his campaign is showing a lot of weakness factoring in how the last few weeks have been nothing but advantages for him. You had Hillary getting scolded by the FBI director about her e-mails which gave Trump a great narrative on the untrustworthy angle. You had the cops getting ambushed which gave Trump the edge to fear monger about the unrest and become the "law and order" candidate. Then on top of that he has a week long convention where his speakers bludgeoned Hillary to death over those issues and of course Benghazi. Even after all that he can barely scratch above the low 40's. Given the circumstances he should be killing Hillary right now.

Contrast that to the bump McCain got when Palin came aboard his ticket (until everyone found out she was a human vegetable) and you can see just how weak Trump is...

http://media.gallup.com/poll/graphs/080911DailyUpdateGraph1_p1m9n3.gif

[boutons_deux]

Trump Takes Moment To Thank All The Fear In Audience For Making This Night Possible

CLEVELAND — Saying their contributions had been crucial to the success of his candidacy, GOP presidential nominee Donald Trump took a moment during his speech Thursday to thank all of the fear and insecurity in the audience of the Republican National Convention for making this evening possible.

“First and foremost, I’d like to recognize all the fear and resentment here with us tonight because I simply could not have achieved any of this without them,” said Trump, noting how the deep sense of paranoia in the crowd had been there alongside him throughout his campaign, providing constant support since the very day he announced his candidacy.

“I know rage is also somewhere out there in the arena, and I certainly want to show my deep appreciation for everything that rage has done for me over the past year.

Gosh, there really are so many anxieties in here tonight that have helped this campaign get where it is today that I can’t possibly name them all, so I’ll just say that if we continue to work together, there’s no way we can be stopped this November.”

Trump then added that the delusion he had relied on throughout the campaign would certainly play a prominent role in his administration.

http://www.theonion.com/article/trump-takes-moment-thank-all-fear-audience-making--53294 (http://www.theonion.com/article/trump-takes-moment-thank-all-fear-audience-making--53294)

[ducks]

What fake article

[Pelicans78]

Boots posts more fake articles than anyone else.

[Pelicans78]

The real distraction is the truth about Comrade Trump.

[boutons_deux]

Oliver, again, destroys his target

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=32n4h0kn-88

[z0sa]

Polls are somewhat meaningless right now anyways, especially those that are within the margin of error. I know it feels this election has been going on forever, but there's still quite a bit to go until November.

Yep. Theres no wins or losses until November.

[boutons_deux]

"election has been going on forever"

It's multi-$Bs business, above all, media selling ads to BigCorp, consultants, PACs, hangers on, etc, etc.

The media tries attract viewes with "it's nail-biter" close, but it ain't.

A charade that has fuck all to with democracy since voters' preferences almost never get translated into laws, regs.

[boutons_deux]

Police state criminalizing political dissent, raping the 1st Amendment, 4th Amendment.

This FBI Tactic May Have Silenced GOP Convention Protesters in Cleveland

In late June, Mother Jones reported (http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2016/06/cleveland-protesters-rnc-police-fbi-visits) that FBI agents had stopped by the homes of several local Black Lives Matter and Occupy Cleveland activists to ask about their plans for the RNC.

An FBI spokesperson told a Cleveland newspaper (http://www.cleveland.com/rnc-2016/index.ssf/2016/06/fbi_police_visit_activists_hom.html) that the agents were conducting "community outreach as part of their security planning."

Activists in other cities who have been prominent in speaking out against police killings of African Americans told the Washington Post (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2016/07/14/inside-obamas-radical-experiment-in-national-reconciliation/)that they had been visited as well.

The FBI apparently continued to call upon activists throughout the week of the RNC. Last Wednesday, the Ohio chapter of the National Lawyers Guild (https://www.nlg.org/chapter/mideast/ohio) released a statement claiming that eight special agents from the FBI, with officers from a metro Cleveland police department, "raided a home without consent or presenting a warrant."

The NLG said the raid appeared to be "part of a series of raids conducted" that morning.

When asked if the FBI activity had possibly quashed protests at the RNC,Jacqueline Green, co-coordinator of the NLG Ohio chapter and a Cleveland area civil rights and criminal defense attorney, replied, "I certainly think it had an effect."

She noted that some reports to the NLG included law enforcement telling people not to go downtown to protest.

An FBI spokesperson told Mother Jones that the agency never told participants not to go downtown.

http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2016/07/fbi-local-cops-visiting-activists-homes-rnc

[boutons_deux]

https://www.facebook.com/latimes/videos/vb.5863113009/10154465117878010/?type=2&theater