2020 Electoral Outlooks Thread

[Spurtacular]

1. Trump will win in a landslide unless the mail-in fraud is more potent than I would hope.
2. If Trump wins Florida, he probably wins.
3. If Trump wins five Rust Belt States or at least four along with Minnesota, he probably wins.
4. Georgia, Iowa and Ohio are all going to be red by a solid margin.
5. Arizona and North Carolina are the states the Democrats have the best chance at flipping.
6. New Hampshire will likely go for Biden.
7. Not counting toss-up New Hampshire, Nevada, Colorado, Minnesota are the three states that Trump has the best chance at flipping.

[Winehole23]

Mail-in fraud is real, but its dimensions are infinitessmal.

If Trump loses, he'll have lost fair and square like HRC did four years ago.

[Spurtacular]

Mail-in fraud is real, but its dimensions are infinitessmal.

That's my hope, effectively if not literally; but we'll see.

[spurraider21]

is there a possibility that biden can win without fraud being the reason, derp?

[Spurtacular]

is there a possibility that biden can win without fraud being the reason, derp?

Honestly, no.

[spurraider21]

Honestly, no.
what an awfully convenient position to hold. one might call it a coping mechanism. trying to play silly heads i win/tails you lose games. sad

[ElNono]

2. If Trump wins Florida, he probably wins.
3. If Trump wins five Rust Belt States or at least four along with Minnesota, he probably wins.

He needs both of these. There's no scenario where he wins Florida and loses the Rust Belt and wins. Similarly, there's no scenario where he loses Florida, wins the Rust Belt and wins.

He basically has to pull off the same states he did last time around, which frankly, I think it's not happening.

[Trainwreck2100]

Trump wins florida he probably wins is like me saying "I win the lottery i probably go on a bender and fuck 4 models in a week"

For the latter to happen the former must happen.

If trump loses Florida, he's done

[Spurtacular]

what an awfully convenient position to hold. one might call it a coping mechanism. trying to play silly heads i win/tails you lose games. sad

I find nothing convenient about the Democrats endemic cheating.

[Spurtacular]

He needs both of these. There's no scenario where he wins Florida and loses the Rust Belt and wins. Similarly, there's no scenario where he loses Florida, wins the Rust Belt and wins.

He basically has to pull off the same states he did last time around, which frankly, I think it's not happening.

Tend to agree. I figure that if Trump is doing well in the Rust Belt, then he will have won Florida; wherefore, the COVID 1984 fearmongering won't have taken root / voters rightfully hold Democrats responsible for the calamitous economic destruction they caused this year.

[Spurtacular]

Trump wins florida he probably wins is like me saying "I win the lottery i probably go on a bender and fuck 4 models in a week"

For the latter to happen the former must happen.

If trump loses Florida, he's done

If Trump wins Florida, the path will be narrow for Democrats. They aren't getting Ohio if Trump has won Florida, tbh. They're probably not getting Ohio anyways.

[ElNono]

If Trump wins Florida, the path will be narrow for Democrats. They aren't getting Ohio if Trump has won Florida, tbh. They're probably not getting Ohio anyways.

Dems don't need Ohio, or NC, or Georgia to win...

[Spurtacular]

Dems don't need Ohio, or NC, or Georgia to win...

And the path will be narrow. :tu

[Spurtacular]

It remains to be seen how the lefty murdering the Trump supporter in cold blood will affect things.

That could be a kill shot anyways.

[spurraider21]

I find nothing convenient about the Democrats endemic cheating.
its certainly convenient to your narrative.

[ElNono]

It remains to be seen how the lefty murdering the Trump supporter in cold blood will affect things.

That could be a kill shot anyways.

That was a killshot. One less vote for Trump.

[clambake]

What’s wrong derp? Got no militia?

[Spurtacular]

its certainly convenient to your narrative.

I mean, I don't blame you for seeing it that way.

But from my p.o.v. the fact the Dems are so good at rigging, they don't have to change and actually go left for the people. They get to be Republicans Lite indefinitely. Conversely, Republicans get to be Democrats Lite indefinitely. Rinse and repeat.

[Spurtacular]

That was a killshot. One less vote for Trump.

Uh, no. You got this going now. Don't expect people to vote for murder.

https://media1.tenor.com/images/97a331e2b22170f63698196ec8f3dfbc/tenor.gif?itemid=14341533

[Spurtacular]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AE1_oKe02NI

[Dirks_Finale]

I've heard that very kind hearted democrats all across the country are showing up at nursing homes and 'helping' people with Alzheimer's fill out their mail in ballots. Very nice of them.


1. Trump will win in a landslide unless the mail-in fraud is more potent than I would hope.
2. If Trump wins Florida, he probably wins.
3. If Trump wins five Rust Belt States or at least four along with Minnesota, he probably wins.
4. Georgia, Iowa and Ohio are all going to be red by a solid margin.
5. Arizona and North Carolina are the states the Democrats have the best chance at flipping.
6. New Hampshire will likely go for Biden.
7. Not counting toss-up New Hampshire, Nevada, Colorado, Minnesota are the three states that Trump has the best chance at flipping.

[Spurtacular]

I've heard that very kind hearted democrats all across the country are showing up at nursing homes and 'helping' people with Alzheimer's fill out their mail in ballots. Very nice of them.

That's the only way they have a chance at making it look close.

[ElNono]

Uh, no. You got this going now. Don't expect people to vote for murder.

https://media1.tenor.com/images/97a331e2b22170f63698196ec8f3dfbc/tenor.gif?itemid=14341533

You never speak for "people". Fringe like you are an infinitesimal part of the electorate.

[Spurtacular]

You never speak for "people". Fringe like you are an infinitesimal part of the electorate.

Bitchiness didn't work for Kamala in the debate. It won't be working for you either.

Don't expect the American people to vote for death and destruction.

[ElNono]

Bitchiness didn't work for Kamala in the debate. It won't be working for you either.

Has nothing to do with bitching, tbh, even Trump supporters here think you're off your meds.


Don't expect the American people to vote for death and destruction.

I have no such expectations. But I think you're missing the point entirely.

Repeating 'law and order' doesn't mean anything. Clearly POTUS is an ineffective and unpopular leader that doesn't know how to actually move past feel good words. Thus why he's getting replaced.

[Spurtacular]

Has nothing to do with bitching, tbh, even Trump supporters here think you're off your meds.

I just got done listening all day to Chumpettes gloating that one of their political enemies was popped.

I think we all know who need dem meds. :lmao

[ElNono]

I just got done listening all day to Chumpettes gloating that one of their political enemies was popped.

I think we all know who need dem meds. :lmao

Oh, so this is a coping thread after all... carry on.

[Spurtacular]

Oh, so this is a coping thread after all... carry on.

No, it's counter to your post comforting yourself.

If your friends are glorying in murder, maybe you don't know who should be on the meds.

[boutons_deux]

Mail-in fraud is real, but its dimensions are infinitessmal.

If Trump loses, he'll have lost fair and square like HRC did four years ago.

nothing "fair and square" about the EC, which is why the Repugs will never allow it to be terminated, (unless they lose in the EC after winning the popular vote)

[rascal]

I find nothing convenient about the Democrats endemic cheating.

Republicans are the ones who cheat.

[RandomGuy]

I find nothing convenient about the Democrats endemic cheating.

If it was endemic, you would have no problem proving that in court. Large events, and endemic things produce large amounts of evidence.

when the top proponent was challenged in a Kansas courtroom to prove that such fraud is rampant, the claims went up in smoke.

https://www.propublica.org/article/kris-kobach-voter-fraud-kansas-trial

[Will Hunting]

I've heard that very kind hearted democrats all across the country are showing up at nursing homes and 'helping' people with Alzheimer's fill out their mail in ballots. Very nice of them.
Alzheimer's care facilities are locked 24/7. There's no way a political operative can just walk in and help a senior care resident fill their ballot out. Even by GOP standards, that's a stupid fucking conspiracy theory.

[ElNono]

lol big fonts

[Dirks_Finale]

Alzheimer's care facilities are locked 24/7. There's no way a political operative can just walk in and help a senior care resident fill their ballot out. Even by GOP standards, that's a stupid fucking conspiracy theory.

I was being sarcastic.

Early stage demnetia patients.

[Will Hunting]

I was being sarcastic.

Early stage demnetia patients.
An early stage dementia patient wouldn't even be in a dementia care center. If you've ever been in one of those places you'd know it's for people who are drooling vegetables with a scrambled egg for a brain :lol

[Reck]

ST conservatives still pushing the dementia card 3 weeks after Trump had to drop it. :lol

[Dirks_Finale]

An early stage dementia patient wouldn't even be in a dementia care center. If you've ever been in one of those places you'd know it's for people who are drooling vegetables with a scrambled egg for a brain :lol

Ummm...yeah so old people tend to have more than one condition :lol

[Winehole23]

Hate to see it, love to see it. GA is still trying so hard to disenfranchise black folks, but they won't sit still for it this time.

1315774645061246976

[Will Hunting]

Hate to see it, love to see it. GA is still trying so hard to disenfranchise black folks, but they won't sit still for it this time.

1315774645061246976
They need to do it again in 2 years when Brian Kemp's term is up if they want the lines to stop.

11 hours is fucking ridiculous.

[Spurtacular]

Not seeing Biden winning Florida.
Chumpettes won't be taking those fake polls to the bank.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oX1WSBKBSIw

[Spurtacular]

An early stage dementia patient wouldn't even be in a dementia care center. If you've ever been in one of those places you'd know it's for people who are drooling vegetables with a scrambled egg for a brain :lol


I was being sarcastic.

Early stage demnetia patients.

I took the Alzheimer's patients to mean just any disoriented senior.
And no, I don't think Democrats are above harvesting votes from vulnerable seniors.

[Will Hunting]

I took the Alzheimer's patients to mean just any disoriented senior.
And no, I don't think Democrats are above harvesting votes from vulnerable seniors.
I'm a textualist so I took Alzheimer's patients to mean Alzheimer's patients.

You have no evidence of Democrats harvesting votes from vulnerable seniors. The only documented example of a candidate harvesting ballots to rig a federal election in the last decade was a Republican hiring a convicted felon to harvest and tamper with ballots.

[baseline bum]

I'm a textualist so I took Alzheimer's patients to mean Alzheimer's patients.

You have no evidence of Democrats harvesting votes from vulnerable seniors. The only documented example of a candidate harvesting ballots to rig a federal election in the last decade was a Republican hiring a convicted felon to harvest and tamper with ballots.

derp's feelings don't care about your facts

[ChumpDumper]

derp's feelings don't care about your factsderp's too busty fucking himself in the ass.

[Will Hunting]

:lmao Derp claiming Democrats ballot harvest when Devin Nunes is literally talking about the GOP having a "robust ballot harvesting operation"

1260770794436562944

[DMC]

If it was endemic, you would have no problem proving that in court. Large events, and endemic things produce large amounts of evidence.

when the top proponent was challenged in a Kansas courtroom to prove that such fraud is rampant, the claims went up in smoke.

https://www.propublica.org/article/kris-kobach-voter-fraud-kansas-trial

Large bold font :lol

[Spurminator]

Hate to see it, love to see it. GA is still trying so hard to disenfranchise black folks, but they won't sit still for it this time.

1315774645061246976

Symbolically great, but I do hope the many people who likely left because of the lines come back and try another day.

[Spurtacular]

:lmao Derp claiming Democrats ballot harvest when Devin Nunes is literally talking about the GOP having a "robust ballot harvesting operation"

1260770794436562944

He's basically saying that he has to play by Democrat rules in California and do something he finds unsavory.
I don't see what the problem is, Will?

[Will Hunting]

He's basically saying that he has to play by Democrat rules in California and do something he finds unsavory.
I don't see what the problem is, Will?
The ballot boxes set up by the California GOP that are falsely marked as official ballot drop boxes are against California's ballot harvesting laws. They're not playing by the rules.

[Spurtacular]

The ballot boxes set up by the California GOP that are falsely marked as official ballot drop boxes are against California's ballot harvesting laws. They're not playing by the rules.

If true, they should be prosecuted.

[Will Hunting]

If true, they should be prosecuted.
:tu

[Spurtacular]

:tu

Though I cannot say that's specifically what is being referred to in that clip. I would doubt it.

[pgardn]

:lmao Derp claiming Democrats ballot harvest when Devin Nunes is literally talking about the GOP having a "robust ballot harvesting operation"

1260770794436562944

The biggest hypocrites, are the Trumptards like derptile.

[Spurtacular]

I have my doubts that Trump can get New Mexico to break 350.

[Will Hunting]

TBH, my prediction so far. I'm still undecided on Iowa/Ohio, I think they'll be the closest states in the race:

Dark blue/red means candidate wins by >10%
Middle blue/red means candidate wins by 5-10%
Light blue/red means candidate wins by <5%

https://i.ibb.co/1nqZT8H/Prediction.jpg

[Spurtacular]

TBH, my prediction so far. I'm still undecided on Iowa/Ohio, I think they'll be the closest states in the race:

Dark blue/red means candidate wins by >10%
Middle blue/red means candidate wins by 5-10%
Light blue/red means candidate wins by <5%

https://i.ibb.co/1nqZT8H/Prediction.jpg

SMH Dat denial

Don't expect America to vote for death and destruction Democrats.

[hater]

LOLz shithole country

https://twitter.com/NotThat_JHud/status/1315995217640607744?s=19

[Will Hunting]

LOLz shithole country

https://twitter.com/NotThat_JHud/status/1315995217640607744?s=19
We're more than capable of deploying enough resources towards elections to make sure people aren't waiting several hours to vote. It's not a symptom of us being a shithole country, it's a symptom of Republican-control states intentionally starving heavily Democratic areas of resources in order to suppress votes.

[RandomGuy]

Large bold font :lol

You're welcome. Just for you.

[RandomGuy]

TBH, my prediction so far. I'm still undecided on Iowa/Ohio, I think they'll be the closest states in the race:

Dark blue/red means candidate wins by >10%
Middle blue/red means candidate wins by 5-10%
Light blue/red means candidate wins by <5%

https://i.ibb.co/1nqZT8H/Prediction.jpg


SMH Dat denial

Don't expect America to vote for death and destruction Democrats.

Make your prediction, chickenshit. Pony up.

[Winehole23]

We're more than capable of deploying enough resources towards elections to make sure people aren't waiting several hours to vote. It's not a symptom of us being a shithole country, it's a symptom of Republican-control states intentionally starving heavily Democratic areas of resources in order to suppress votes.Failing to provide basic servicles like health care during a pandemic and polling stations during an election is a rank failure of government.

Having the resources to take care of people and not doing so, then gaming the election to prevent political change, is the kernel of shithole governance.

[RandomGuy]

https://www.270towin.com/map-images/KPweZ.png

Going to guess almost everything but Iowa goes Bidens way. Moderate confidence.

[ElNono]

This is where I'm at right now... In this scenario, old Joe wins even if he drops PA.

And if he drops AZ too, but clinches NC or OH, he wins too.

I don't see a clear path for Orangina, tbh

https://www.270towin.com/map-images/1WklV

[pgardn]

TBH, my prediction so far. I'm still undecided on Iowa/Ohio, I think they'll be the closest states in the race:

Dark blue/red means candidate wins by >10%
Middle blue/red means candidate wins by 5-10%
Light blue/red means candidate wins by <5%

https://i.ibb.co/1nqZT8H/Prediction.jpg

if the blue team somehow gets Florida decided early, it’s over early.
this would be the best thing for our country.

[Spurtacular]

:lol


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1XFIIVScvls

[Winehole23]

if the blue team somehow gets Florida decided early, it’s over early.Somehing similar may hold for Ohio.

[Spurtacular]

This is where I'm at right now... In this scenario, old Joe wins even if he drops PA.

And if he drops AZ too, but clinches NC or OH, he wins too.

I don't see a clear path for Orangina, tbh

https://www.270towin.com/map-images/1WklV

All your toss-ups are reds that you're just holding out hope on. TBH, surprised you're not holding out hope on FL too.

AZ will very likely be red. That puts Biden best case at 279, which is a win. But it gives little to no room for a letdown.

In this situation, the blue wall will have to actually hold up this time. I don't think it will if Trump is winning those other states.

[rmt]

This is what I'm hoping for:

Everything from 2016 - WI - MI. I'm hoping for PA and think Trump will carry FL.

I'm worried about AZ - if he loses AZ, there would be a 269-269 tie and then House of Representatives will decide. Right now, I think it's 26-22 Rep (but 36 Rep and only 13 Dem defending) so very unlikely Trump would win in that scenario.

[Reck]

This is what I'm hoping for:

Everything from 2016 - WI - MI. I'm hoping for PA and think Trump will carry FL.

I'm worried about AZ - if he loses AZ, there would be a 269-269 tie and then House of Representatives will decide. Right now, I think it's 26-22 Rep (but 36 Rep and only 13 Dem defending) so very unlikely Trump would win in that scenario.

Lol if Biden loses Wisconsin and Michigan that means he would have lost so Arizona means nothing in that scenario.

[Will Hunting]

Lol if Biden loses Wisconsin and Michigan that means he would have lost so Arizona means nothing in that scenario.
She's saying 2016 less Wisconsin and Michigan because the chances of Trump holding either state are slim.

[ElNono]

All your toss-ups are reds that you're just holding out hope on. TBH, surprised you're not holding out hope on FL too.

AZ will very likely be red. That puts Biden best case at 279, which is a win. But it gives little to no room for a letdown.

In this situation, the blue wall will have to actually hold up this time. I don't think it will if Trump is winning those other states.

I'm trying to give Trump a realistic chance, that's all... If he can't win all of TX, GA and FL, he's done.

[Spurtacular]

1317274984411267082

[pgardn]

Biden has pulled money out of Texas and Ohio.

Ohio is the significant one, it’s Trump.
Ohio will not be an unexpected loss.

[Spurtacular]

Biden has pulled money out of Texas and Ohio.

Ohio is the significant one, it’s Trump.
Ohio will not be an unexpected loss.

If so, that puts the worst Trump can do at 267.
Glimmer of hope if you prefer.

[pgardn]

If so, that puts the worst Trump can do at 267.
Glimmer of hope if you prefer.

i’m really not doing any accounting.

just reporting what good sources say.
if you want good information you need to watch the Chris Wallace show on Fox when Carl Rove does his accounting, it’s very informative. it was the show this morning. Rove got some of his best data from NYT who has close ties to money spent in different States and how it is changing as we wind down.

[Spurtacular]

i’m really not doing any accounting.

just reporting what good sources say.
if you want good information you need to watch the Chris Wallace show on Fox when Carl Rove does his accounting, it’s very informative. it was the show this morning. Rove got some of his best data from NYT who has close ties to money spent in different States and how it is changing as we wind down.

Rove's whiteboard good now?

[Reck]

If so, that puts the worst Trump can do at 267.
Glimmer of hope if you prefer.

Where were you when Trump was pulling money out of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Iowa, Arizona etc?

:lol

[pgardn]

Rove's whiteboard good now?

Rove is fully Republican and dirty as hell but he deals in reality.
He could never work for Trump anymore because he would not tell Trump what he wants to hear.

You want a good source who understands those boards, its Rove.
Or ignore him because he deals with sound numbers as an analyst.
As a cheerleader and strategist, he is as dirty as they come.
He knows how to spread lies and he knows where the lies will be most effective.

One day you will learn you dont have to like people who can give you good solid information.
Nah... you wont.

[Spurtacular]

Rove is fully Republican and dirty as hell but he deals in reality.
He could never work for Trump anymore because he would not tell Trump what he wants to hear.

You want a good source who understands those boards, its Rove.
Or ignore him because he deals with sound numbers as an analyst.
As a cheerleader and strategist, he is as dirty as they come.
He knows how to spread lies and he knows where the lies will be most effective.

One day you will learn you dont have to like people who can give you good solid information.
Nah... you wont.

I'm not arguing that Ohio and Texas aren't red.

[pgardn]

I'm not arguing that Ohio and Texas aren't red.

No you are not.

You said Rove white board good now.

I explained to you Rove and his usefulness.
And Of course you wont argue Ohio and Texas are red. It suits your wishes.
I can accept truths I dont personally like.

This is why you will never really get it.

[Spurtacular]

No you are not.

You said Rove white board good now.

I explained to you Rove and his usefulness.
And Of course you wont argue Ohio and Texas are red. It suits your wishes.
I can accept truths I dont personally like.

This is why you will never really get it.

You accept what NYT tells you.
It's not about Rove, who is just a conduit.
Stop pretending your open minded. You're not.

[Spurtacular]

Where were you when Trump was pulling money out of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Iowa, Arizona etc?

:lol

Are you trying to argue that Trump will lose those states?

[Reck]

Are you trying to argue that Trump will lose those states?

Hell yeah I’m saying Trump will lose those states. 3 out of 4.

Trump will retain Iowa I feel.

[pgardn]

You accept what NYT tells you.
It's not about Rove, who is just a conduit.
Stop pretending your open minded. You're not.

No not all of it.
Its definitely left leaning.
But if this paper is not in your lineup you will whiff on many, many things.

The paper and Wapo were instrumental in exposing Clinton money and foundations.
But then you see it 5 x removed on a youtube exaggeration and think this fits your wishes so you believe it.
Its good for people who live in holes in a paranoid state.

Democrats running the underground pedophile movement... you go boy.

[Will Hunting]

:lol the guy who's sure that his candidate can only lose if the election is rigged is criticizing others about open mindedness

[Spurtacular]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RjXFMUA2Nq4

[Spurtacular]

Michigan going for Trump, tbh.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R3ddmP05YDI

[Winehole23]

https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/10/a-la-nina-winter-is-on-the-way-for-the-us/

[Spurtacular]

Chris

:lol Like listening to a Chumpette.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=heaZcI_A8tw

https://www.liveleak.com/view?t=a9TVL_1602990185

[SnakeBoy]

Chris

:lol Like listening to a Chumpette.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=heaZcI_A8tw

https://www.liveleak.com/view?t=a9TVL_1602990185

lmao

[Chris]

Chris

:lol Like listening to a Chumpette.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=heaZcI_A8tw

https://www.liveleak.com/view?t=a9TVL_1602990185

haha what a dingbat I saw this before but without the elder scrolls :lol

[Reck]

If cars could vote.
1317980900173484032 (https://twitter.com/mariacorinaveg1/status/1317980900173484032?s=21)

:lmao Spurtacular

[Rummpd]

IBD poll one of most accurate last few years down to 5 points this election could still move to DT?

[Spurtacular]

If cars could vote.
1317980900173484032 (https://twitter.com/mariacorinaveg1/status/1317980900173484032?s=21)

:lmao Spurtacular (https://www.spurstalk.com/forums/member.php?u=49615)

Someone should've asked how much they were being paid.

[Spurtacular]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tgiFQD4gMno

[Reck]

Someone should've asked how much they were being paid.

Trump’s thing.

[Reck]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tgiFQD4gMno

Of course. Do you know who your neighbor is voting for, derp?

[Spurtacular]

Trump’s thing.

No. Those patriots excitedly support Trump everywhere.

Don't say stupid sh** just cos you're down in the dumps, tranny.

[Spurtacular]

Of course. Do you know who your neighbor is voting for, derp?

Yes. I literally watched my neighbors fighting about that sh**.

But that's not the poll question, whether you "know".

[Reck]

Yes. I literally watched my neighbors fighting about that sh**.

But that's not the poll question, whether you "know".

That's how they poll people. It's a shit way to do it.

[Spurtacular]

That's how they poll people. It's a shit way to do it.

Actually, if you want something resembling a non made-up poll, it's a great way to know.

if Biden was in double digits, Trump wouldn't be winning a poll like that.

[Reck]

Actually, if you want something resembling a non made-up poll, it's a great way to know.

if Biden was in double digits, Trump wouldn't be winning a poll like that.

It depends where you do the polling.

They target red districts and ask people dumb ass questions like who do you think your neighbor will vote for. It's not really random.

But for what it's worth, even shitty Trafargal or whatever they're call only have Trump up 1-2 points. That's terrible for a pollster that leans heavily republican. Ditto for Rassmussen who actually has Biden up in Ohio.

It ain't looking good for your orange meister.

[Will Hunting]

It depends where you do the polling.

They target red districts and ask people dumb ass questions like who do you think your neighbor will vote for. It's not really random.

But for what it's worth, even shitty Trafargal or whatever they're call only have Trump up 1-2 points. That's terrible for a pollster that leans heavily republican. Ditto for Rassmussen who actually has Biden up in Ohio.

It ain't looking good for your orange meister.
Rassmussen also has Biden up in PA today :lol

[Spurtacular]

It depends where you do the polling.

They target red districts and ask people dumb ass questions like who do you think your neighbor will vote for. It's not really random.

But for what it's worth, even shitty Trafargal or whatever they're call only have Trump up 1-2 points. That's terrible for a pollster that leans heavily republican. Ditto for Rassmussen who actually has Biden up in Ohio.

It ain't looking good for your orange meister.

:lol You're basing that on nothing at all other than your hurt feelings.

[Spurtacular]

It depends where you do the polling.

They target red districts and ask people dumb ass questions like who do you think your neighbor will vote for. It's not really random.

But for what it's worth, even shitty Trafargal or whatever they're call only have Trump up 1-2 points. That's terrible for a pollster that leans heavily republican. Ditto for Rassmussen who actually has Biden up in Ohio.

It ain't looking good for your orange meister.

Yea, an honest organization has it tight. Cause for concern. But indicators are it's going to be better all the same.

[Spurtacular]

Rassmussen also has Biden up in PA today :lol

Rasmussen got caught with their pants down in 2012. They've been gun shy ever since.
I don't take them seriously, just like any other fake poll.

[Reck]

Rasmussen got caught with their pants down in 2012. They've been gun shy ever since.
I don't take them seriously, just like any other fake poll.

Rassmusen bad now. :lol

[Spurtacular]

Rassmusen bad now. :lol

I don't trust them. If you got something that says otherwise, let me know.

[pgardn]

I don't trust them. If you got something that says otherwise, let me know.

Oh you found some polling on a youtube...

"I dont trust anything except information presented by secluded incels like myself."

[Spurtacular]

Oh you found some polling on a youtube...

"I dont trust anything except information presented by secluded incels like myself."

Get a hold of yourself, Less Than Blake.

[Spurtacular]

Ground game

1315052375502016512

[Spurtacular]

Damn. Dems not even getting out the early vote in Florida.

1318551236124266497

[Spurtacular]

Not even that much an advantage in the mail-in vote, as most NPA's going Trump.
More turncoat Dems too, tbh.
Florida going to be a massacre for Trump.
This ain't even a swing state at this point, tbh.
It's red like Ohio. Not sorry.

1318228916050513920

[Spurtacular]

:lmao This lefty fluffer thinks 93 percent chance Biden wins.
:lmao Chumpettes


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cLrkY6iubLI

[Will Hunting]

Not even that much an advantage in the mail-in vote, as most NPA's going Trump.
More turncoat Dems too, tbh.
Florida going to be a massacre for Trump.
This ain't even a swing state at this point, tbh.
It's red like Ohio. Not sorry.

1318228916050513920
Trump won Florida NPAs in 2016 but Dems won Florida NPAs in 2018 (their base just didn't turn out in the state, per usual).

The only early voting stat that matters in Florida is turnout among registered Dems. Registered Rs in Florida will have solid turnout the same way they always do, registered Dems are the fickle voters there.

[pgardn]

Get a hold of yourself, Less Than Blake.

let go of yourself incel boy

You reading Florida as a red wave given the above is hilarious.
I will give you credit for optimism though, I guess being a welfare queen gives you your positive nature.

[LaMarcus Bryant]

Trump is toast imo. There's a reason the GOP is throwing the kitchen sink in every state and court at trying to cheat. They know they're toast.

Local polls show trump losing plenty of districts in battleground states he carried by 10+ points in 2016.

And as much fighting over mail in stuff, etc, I believe most people are risking it all to go ahead and vote in person early, instead of waiting until election day itself, which I always was so fucking annoyed people would wait to do that anyways. Made no sense.

[LaMarcus Bryant]

I'm still laughing at how the country collectively rolled it's eyes on the Hunter story lmfaoooo

[Will Hunting]

Trump is toast imo. There's a reason the GOP is throwing the kitchen sink in every state and court at trying to cheat. They know they're toast.

Local polls show trump losing plenty of districts in battleground states he carried by 10+ points in 2016.

And as much fighting over mail in stuff, etc, I believe most people are risking it all to go ahead and vote in person early, instead of waiting until election day itself, which I always was so fucking annoyed people would wait to do that anyways. Made no sense.
A lot more MAGAtards are waiting until election day too. There's no way to prove this but I'm pretty confident it's right, out of everyone who waits until election day, 1-2% of them are going to end up not voting because of an unexpected life event or something wrong at the polls. The GOP is going to have a lot more unexpected life event non-voters because Trump was retarded and scared his base away from absentee voting.

The GOP using the courts to suppress votes is nothing new and I think they were going to ramp it up either way, but the fact GOP donor money is flowing towards senate races now while Trump's campaign is broke is the big tell. The same thing happened in 2008, they're conceding the presidency and and hoping to use the senate as a firewall against progressive legislation.

[Spurtacular]

Trump won Florida NPAs in 2016 but Dems won Florida NPAs in 2018 (their base just didn't turn out in the state, per usual).

The only early voting stat that matters in Florida is turnout among registered Dems. Registered Rs in Florida will have solid turnout the same way they always do, registered Dems are the fickle voters there.

You have to worry about Dems flipping more than Repubs flipping too, imo. Trump cut medicare premiums by 43 percent.

[Spurtacular]

TBH, my prediction so far. I'm still undecided on Iowa/Ohio, I think they'll be the closest states in the race:

Dark blue/red means candidate wins by >10%
Middle blue/red means candidate wins by 5-10%
Light blue/red means candidate wins by <5%

https://i.ibb.co/1nqZT8H/Prediction.jpg

Anything change for you in a week?

[Reck]

Anything change for you in a week?
Will Hunting Should put Iowa as a tilt blue.

Theresa Greenfield is probably going to win and help Biden in the process.

[Will Hunting]

Anything change for you in a week?
Iowa blue, Ohio red.

[Spurtacular]

Will Hunting (https://www.spurstalk.com/forums/member.php?u=17032) Should put Iowa as a tilt blue.

Theresa Greenfield is probably going to win and help Biden in the process.

SMH Dat denial.

Especially since TG is perhaps the shittiest candidate that Democrats have on the block. :lol

[Spurtacular]

Iowa blue

Trump won Iowa by 10 last time. What are you basing this huge reversal on?

[Will Hunting]

SMH Dat denial.

Especially since TG is perhaps the shittiest candidate that Democrats have on the block. :lol
:lmao no, that’d be Any McGrath. Hickenlooper is in a blue state so it won’t matter but he’s run a shit campaign so far. If we’re counting incumbents Gary Peters takes the cake though as far as worst candidate.

Greenfield has run a great campaign. She had the best debate moment so far this election cycle and has gone from long shot to slight favorite since she won her primary.

[Spurtacular]

Ohio red.

Why did Ohio shift and not Florida?

Even using your filter, I should think Florida would be toss-up at least now.

[Spurtacular]

:lmao no, that’d be Any McGrath.

What's so bad about AM besides the fact that she's a ridiculous opponent for that state?
Put her in a blue state, she seems like she might fit in.

[Spurtacular]

Hickenlooper is in a blue state so it won’t matter but he’s run a shit campaign so far. If we’re counting incumbents Gary Peters takes the cake though as far as worst candidate.

Greenfield has run a great campaign. She had the best debate moment so far this election cycle and has gone from long shot to slight favorite since she won her primary.

Yea, you could legit say they're worse. All the same, Greenfield is an anemic candidate. Reck talking about her swelling up excitement is ridiculous.

You talking about this moment?

1312560980141002752

I haven't heard of her having any great moments, tbh. But I don't watch MSDNC often.

[Will Hunting]

Trump won Iowa by 10 last time. What are you basing this huge reversal on?
He won Iowa in 2016, then Democrats won 3 of Iowa’s 4 house seats in 2018 and the governor race was a razor thin margin. Prior to 2016 Obama won Iowa comfortable margins both times, Gore also won it in 2000. It’s not the ruby red state it looked like in 2016. One of the reasons Ernst is in trouble is because she took the political landscape in Iowa for granted and thought she could get away with being a Koch Brothers prostitute who ignores her home state. Iowa isn’t red enough for that.

Farm bankruptcies in Iowa are also through the roof since Trump implemented tariffs, the reddest part of Iowa is getting slammed with a COVID outbreak right now, and the federal derecho response has been abysmal. The only thing Trump has given Iowans is farm subsidies to make up for the tariffs, but most farmers would rather own a self sustaining farm that pays for itself rather than rely on subsidies that could be cut off at any moment.

[Will Hunting]

Yea, you could legit say they're worse. All the same, Greenfield is an anemic candidate. Reck talking about her swelling up excitement is ridiculous.

You talking about this moment?

1312560980141002752

I haven't heard of her having any great moments, tbh. But I don't watch MSDNC often.
Nope, it's the moment where Greenfield knew the price of corn off the top of her head and then Ernst pretended her mic wasn't working after she couldn't say what the price of soybeans were.

1317156309477822466

1317493178644287488

[Reck]

SMH Dat denial.

Especially since TG is perhaps the shittiest candidate that Democrats have on the block. :lol

You're just so out of tune it's actually hard to have a normal conversation with you. Greenfield is probably the second best candidate this cycle. First being Harrison.

Keep earning that name, derp.

[Spurtacular]

1317156309477822466
1317493178644287488


:lol Silly. Those gotcha questions that the moderator gives heads up on aren't going to sway Iowans.
:lol Moderator had to make sure he kept that tag team going.

[Spurtacular]

"You grew up on a farm; you should know this."

What a condescending twat. And then he had to check his card as he relayed the answer. :lmao

[Reck]

:lol derp not coping so well about the fact Trump is an atrocious president that is losing badly.

[Spurtacular]

:lol derp not coping so well about the fact Trump is an atrocious president that is losing badly.

He was "losing badly" in 2016.
Some of us learn lessons.
Some of us don't.

[Trainwreck2100]

:lol Silly. Those gotcha questions that the moderator gives heads up on aren't going to sway Iowans.
:lol Moderator had to make sure he kept that tag team going.

how is that a gotcha question

[Reck]

He was "losing badly" in 2016.
Some of us learn lessons.
Some of us don't.

Trump supporters forever stuck in 2016.

[Spurtacular]

how is that a gotcha question

It's a shell game, dude.
TG's campaign needed a boost; so that dick weed surely told her through an intermediary to be up to date on commodity prices.
Dude's a Chumpette. He thinks he's doing his part to make the Senate blue is all.

[Bogie]

:lol Silly. Those gotcha questions that the moderator gives heads up on aren't going to sway Iowans.
:lol Moderator had to make sure he kept that tag team going.


you are really fucking stupid.

Any person who works in agriculture, whose livelihood depends on prices of commodities knows what the current prices are.

plus, harvest season is right around the corner, you mongoloid. Prices are all that matter to farmers, at this point. Especially since the derecheco (sp) wiped out a significant portion of crops across central Iowa.

my 92 year old uncle whose farmed his entire life can tell you what corn and bean prices are every day. It’s what they do.

you’re really fucking stupid

[Spurtacular]

Trump supporters forever stuck in 2016.

Not at all. 2020 Trump is dominating. Steamrolling Joe and morally bankrupt Democrats.
Exposing all the censorship, the violence, the shameless manipulations.
Having prosperity to show for a great term.
We're enjoying every minute while you dread election night b/c your ticket is such sh**.
And you know that the tired submission polls no longer work. That has you depressed.

[Spurtacular]

you are really fucking stupid.

Any person who works in agriculture, whose livelihood depends on prices of commodities knows what the current prices are.

plus, harvest season is right around the corner, you mongoloid. Prices are all that matter to farmers, at this point. Especially since the derecheco (sp) wiped out a significant portion of crops across central Iowa.

my 92 year old uncle whose farmed his entire life can tell you what corn and bean prices are every day. It’s what they do.

you’re really fucking stupid

It was a ploy. Even the guy who covers Iowa news for a living and knew the question ahead of time still had to look at his card. :lmao

[Leetonidas]

He won Iowa in 2016, then Democrats won 3 of Iowa’s 4 house seats in 2018 and the governor race was a razor thin margin. Prior to 2016 Obama won Iowa comfortable margins both times, Gore also won it in 2000. It’s not the ruby red state it looked like in 2016. One of the reasons Ernst is in trouble is because she took the political landscape in Iowa for granted and thought she could get away with being a Koch Brothers prostitute who ignores her home state. Iowa isn’t red enough for that.

Farm bankruptcies in Iowa are also through the roof since Trump implemented tariffs, the reddest part of Iowa is getting slammed with a COVID outbreak right now, and the federal derecho response has been abysmal. The only thing Trump has given Iowans is farm subsidies to make up for the tariffs, but most farmers would rather own a self sustaining farm that pays for itself rather than rely on subsidies that could be cut off at any moment.

My wife's family is from Iowa and they're all a buncha white ass country people and they all despise Donald Trump :lol he's going to lose Iowa tbh

[Reck]

Not at all. 2020 Trump is dominating. Steamrolling Joe and morally bankrupt Democrats.
Exposing all the censorship, the violence, the shameless manipulations.
Having prosperity to show for a great term.
We're enjoying every minute while you dread election night b/c your ticket is such sh**.
And you know that the tired submission polls no longer work. That has you depressed.

Did you check in with Krystal Ball and Sahir?

[Bogie]

It was a ploy. Even the guy who covers Iowa news for a living and knew the question ahead of time still had to look at his card. :lmao

I’ll go slower for you, since you’re really really stupid.

people whose livelihoods are derived from agriculture know what the prices of commodities are, every day.

a senator, representing a state whose main sources of industry are mostly agriculture related, who cares at all about representing her constituents, knows those prices too.

her fucking up a softball question, like the price of corn that day, when it should be a part of their staff’s daily routines to check those prices at market closing every day, to stay abreast of what’s effecting her state

Also, she was a fucking farmer before she was bought by the Koch’s. Her fucking family still farms.

you’re really fucking stupid

[Bogie]

My wife's family is from Iowa and they're all a buncha white ass country people and they all despise Donald Trump :lol he's going to lose Iowa tbh


i don’t know if I would go that far to guarantee he’s going to lose Iowa, god and racism are still big selling points to rural voters.

But he’s not going to win the state very easily. Especially with the metro areas voting in large numbers.

[Spurtacular]

Did you check in with Krystal Ball and Sahir?

They're not calling Trump at this point.

We'll see when the polls move towards Trump as the establishment tries to save some face.

[Will Hunting]

I’ll go slower for you, since you’re really really stupid.

people whose livelihoods are derived from agriculture know what the prices of commodities are, every day.

a senator, representing a state whose main sources of industry are mostly agriculture related, who cares at all about representing her constituents, knows those prices too.

her fucking up a softball question, like the price of corn that day, when it should be a part of their staff’s daily routines to check those prices at market closing every day, to stay abreast of what’s effecting her state

Also, she was a fucking farmer before she was bought by the Koch’s. Her fucking family still farms.

you’re really fucking stupid
Greenfield doesn't even work in farming, she's a real estate investor, but she checks the price of commodities every day since it comes with the territory of being a senator in Iowa.

As you just said - Ernst thought Iowa functioned the same way Nebraska or Kansas does where it has enough braindead GOP voters who don't care if you ignore them and sell out to Charles Koch. It's definitely a red leaning state, but it has enough college educated voters and non-evangelicals who will actually give a shit about what your record is. Chuck Grassley hasn't always been a piece of shit the way he is now, he had to earn Iowa's trust first before getting a rubber stamp every 6 years.

[Spurtacular]

I’ll go slower for you, since you’re really really stupid.

people whose livelihoods are derived from agriculture know what the prices of commodities are, every day.

a senator, representing a state whose main sources of industry are mostly agriculture related, who cares at all about representing her constituents, knows those prices too.

her fucking up a softball question, like the price of corn that day, when it should be a part of their staff’s daily routines to check those prices at market closing every day, to stay abreast of what’s effecting her state

Also, she was a fucking farmer before she was bought by the Koch’s. Her fucking family still farms.

you’re really fucking stupid

It's not a great look. But her opponent has serious corruption baggage. Voting for a corrupt person just because she knows the price of beans on a given day is not what you think it is. You think Iowans are just yokels whose lives hinge on that. Reality check: Senators don't spend their time on Capitol Hill discussing corn prices. The lobbies will write anything for whatever pork as well anyways.

[Spurtacular]

Greenfield doesn't even work in farming, she's a real estate investor, but she checks the price of commodities every day since it comes with the territory of being a senator in Iowa.

It comes with the territory of knowing a gotcha question in advance. That's all.


Reality check: Senators don't spend their time on Capitol Hill discussing corn prices. The lobbies will write anything for whatever pork as well anyways.

[Winehole23]

Having prosperity to show for a great term, such a soothing idea.

[Spurtacular]

Chuck Grassley hasn't always been a piece of shit the way he is now, he had to earn Iowa's trust first before getting a rubber stamp every 6 years.

Iowa is red. And if you're going to beat the person with the R next to the name, you're going to need something more than a stunt.
Democrats never learn that nominating corrupt individuals does not flip states. But they don't want to learn. They want theirs is all.
Maybe I'm wrong and this stunt will actually work; but I doubt it. Iowans are like everyone else. They're voting for the balance of the Senate and not just for the person they may happen to like more.

[RandomGuy]

He won Iowa in 2016, then Democrats won 3 of Iowa’s 4 house seats in 2018 and the governor race was a razor thin margin. Prior to 2016 Obama won Iowa comfortable margins both times, Gore also won it in 2000. It’s not the ruby red state it looked like in 2016. One of the reasons Ernst is in trouble is because she took the political landscape in Iowa for granted and thought she could get away with being a Koch Brothers prostitute who ignores her home state. Iowa isn’t red enough for that.

Farm bankruptcies in Iowa are also through the roof since Trump implemented tariffs, the reddest part of Iowa is getting slammed with a COVID outbreak right now, and the federal derecho response has been abysmal. The only thing Trump has given Iowans is farm subsidies to make up for the tariffs, but most farmers would rather own a self sustaining farm that pays for itself rather than rely on subsidies that could be cut off at any moment.

Good points.

Move IA to the blue column then. with you on ohio going red as well.

[RandomGuy]

Iowa is red. And if you're going to beat the person with the R next to the name, you're going to need something more than a stunt.
Democrats never learn that nominating corrupt individuals does not flip states. But they don't want to learn. They want theirs is all.
Maybe I'm wrong and this stunt will actually work; but I doubt it. Iowans are like everyone else. They're voting for the balance of the Senate and not just for the person they may happen to like more.

You haven't ponied up a fucking map yet, chickenshit.

[Bogie]

It's not a great look. But her opponent has serious corruption baggage. Voting for a corrupt person just because she knows the price of beans on a given day is not what you think it is. You think Iowans are just yokels whose lives hinge on that. Reality check: Senators don't spend their time on Capitol Hill discussing corn prices. The lobbies will write anything for whatever pork as well anyways.

i grew up in Iowa. I know what iowans are. And yes, ag State representatives do stay abreast of those prices. It is what effects their constituents.

You’re really stupid. It cannot be emphasized enough how stupid you are.

[Will Hunting]

Maybe I'm wrong and this stunt will actually work; but I doubt it.
aaand there's the qualifier because Derp doesn't want to commit to a prediction :lol

[RandomGuy]

https://www.270towin.com/map-images/kpVYQ moderate-low confidence, esp ohio.

DeSantis' fuckups on COVID response will cost Trump FL in the end.

[Bogie]

Iowa is red. And if you're going to beat the person with the R next to the name, you're going to need something more than a stunt.
Democrats never learn that nominating corrupt individuals does not flip states. But they don't want to learn. They want theirs is all.
Maybe I'm wrong and this stunt will actually work; but I doubt it. Iowans are like everyone else. They're voting for the balance of the Senate and not just for the person they may happen to like more.

ok mongoloid, tell us all what greenfield did that has you asserting her corruption

[Reck]

https://www.270towin.com/map-images/kpVYQ moderate-low confidence, esp ohio.

DeSantis' fuckups on COVID response will cost Trump FL in the end.

You have Nevada, Michigan etc as lean dem but Georgia as likely? How is that?

[RandomGuy]

You have Nevada, Michigan etc as lean dem but Georgia as likely? How is that?

Clicked on it one too many times, didnt feel like fixing it. Blue is blue for the electroral count.

[Will Hunting]

New NYT/Sienna poll has Biden +3 in Iowa but Ernst +1. Seems strange, very first poll I've seen where Greenfield is polling behind Biden, and first poll in months where Greenfield is trailing at all.

[Spurtacular]

aaand there's the qualifier because Derp doesn't want to commit to a prediction :lol

I predict Ernst wins handily. Savvy?

[Spurtacular]

You have Nevada, Michigan etc as lean dem but Georgia as likely? How is that?


Clicked on it one too many times, didnt feel like fixing it. Blue is blue for the electroral count.

Georgia is definitely some sort of red shade. But even looking at it through a chumpette filter, having it any better than toss-up is silly.

[Spurtacular]

https://www.270towin.com/map-images/OvJLB

[Reck]

New NYT/Sienna poll has Biden +3 in Iowa but Ernst +1. Seems strange, very first poll I've seen where Greenfield is polling behind Biden, and first poll in months where Greenfield is trailing at all.

I saw a similar one where Biden was outpolling Cunningham by about 2 points.

Dont remember which pollster. Strange things.

The only explanation I have is the supposed tightening we were supposed to see at the presidential level which we haven't seen is happening at the senate level.

[Reck]

https://www.270towin.com/map-images/BNkdo

:lmao

No disrespect toward your ambition though.

[Spurtacular]

:lmao

No disrespect toward your ambition though.

You know that the polls are trash.
You know that momentum is with Trump.
You know that the COVID gambit is not working out.
You know that Trump is likely to build on 2016 and not slip against the weakest candidate in history.
You know any number of things not to your liking.
You're only making it hurt more later by being in such denial.

[TSA]

https://twitter.com/TrumpDucki/status/1318921566307127302

Pushing for the shutdown of college campuses could come back to bite Dems in the ass.

[Spurtacular]

https://twitter.com/TrumpDucki/status/1318921566307127302

Pushing for the shutdown of college campuses could come back to bite Dems in the ass.

Morons didn't think that one through probably.
But wrecking the economy and pretending it was Trump's fault was their only play short of losing with honor.

[Spurtacular]

And Michigan just got that much redder. :lmao


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9chSqCTctRI

[Rummpd]

https://www.investors.com/news/biden-vs-trump-poll-donald-trump-new-high-in-tight-race-ibd-tipp-presidential-poll/

National down 2 and 3 now in Rasmussen

[Reck]

https://twitter.com/TrumpDucki/status/1318921566307127302

Pushing for the shutdown of college campuses could come back to bite Dems in the ass.

OOF

Then its a good thing the boomers are turning out in record number for Biden then.

[Reck]

https://www.investors.com/news/biden-vs-trump-poll-donald-trump-new-high-in-tight-race-ibd-tipp-presidential-poll/

National down 2 and 3 now in Rasmussen

:lmao democrats have strayed. Cute

[TSA]

:lmao democrats have strayed. Cute

https://mobile.twitter.com/djjohnso/status/1319007800194904065

[Spurtacular]

https://mobile.twitter.com/djjohnso/status/1319007800194904065

Yea, "news".

I done said they have to pretend Biden losing ground as election day approaches.

R Submission / D Excitement polls.

Conservatives not going to be faked out any more though. They're heading strong to the polls for a candidate they care about.

[Reck]

https://mobile.twitter.com/djjohnso/status/1319007800194904065

Ok?

Weird response as that has nothing to do with dem enthusiasm to vote against Trump.

But what about the CNN poll that has Biden up 10 in PA? Fake news?

[TSA]

Ok?

Weird response as that has nothing to do with dem enthusiasm to vote against Trump.

But what about the CNN poll that has Biden up 10 in PA? Fake news?

:lmao

[Reck]

:lmao

What are you laughing about? Coping?

[TSA]

What are you laughing about? Coping?

CNN poll

:lmao

[Reck]

CNN poll

:lmao

:lol TSA melting down after his hunter Biden conspiracy turned into a Giulianni thought he was about to fuck a 15 year old.

:lol Thinks an 8 point lead in a key battleground state is "horrible."

[boutons_deux]

538 has Biden approval 52 - 42.

Trash is less popular than he was in 2016, which means less voters?

538 has Biden with 348 EC votes, Trash with 182

Biden with 87% probability to win

[Spurtacular]

Ok?

Weird response as that has nothing to do with dem enthusiasm to vote against Trump.

But what about the CNN poll that has Biden up 10 in PA? Fake news?

:lol CNN


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TQHg0EZRgM4


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SSVDZ0MySk8

[Reck]

:lol CNN


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TQHg0EZRgM4


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SSVDZ0MySk8

Quit posting videos of 15 year olds.

[Spurtacular]

Quit posting videos of 15 year olds.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jSPpRB0j1dY

[ElNono]

https://mobile.twitter.com/djjohnso/status/1319007800194904065

This would be better news for Dennison than bad news for old Joe. One needs to absolutely win the state, the other can actually win without PA.

[Spurtacular]

This would be better news for Dennison than bad news for old Joe. One needs to absolutely win the state, the other can actually win without PA.

:lol No on the conclusion.

But for what it's worth, no way Trump loses if he gets PA; so I agree that it's better "news" for him. :tu

[Rummpd]

Polls tightening overall Biden up 7.5 in RCP average but two polls just released IBD (more credible probably) and Rasmussen within 3 now - will be interesting

[Will Hunting]

Polls tightening overall Biden up 7.5 in RCP average but two polls just released IBD (more credible probably) and Rasmussen within 3 now - will be interesting
You keep spamming this - the polls that actually matter are state polls.

[rmt]

C'mon PA.

[Reck]

This would be better news for Dennison than bad news for old Joe. One needs to absolutely win the state, the other can actually win without PA.

Also he's a retard if he thinks a house efffect has a margin of 7 to 8 points shift one way or the other.

That's double the usual MoE of any polls. That just doesn't happen.

[Rummpd]

You keep spamming this - the polls that actually matter are state polls.

You are right on that and the issue is they are inferior and infrequent often. Race is closer but could go either way.

[Rummpd]

You keep spamming this - the polls that actually matter are state polls.

You are right on that and the issue is they are inferior and infrequent often. Race is likely closer but could go either way.

[Joseph Kony]

You keep spamming this - the polls that actually matter are state polls.
:lmao

"I do not have a party or leg in race"

>keeps spamming the same poll in every thread

[Rummpd]

:lmao

"I do not have a party or leg in race"

>keeps spamming the same poll in every thread

Why can you not accept I am fine either way? Lock it up I know more politics you do.

[Will Hunting]

You are right on that and the issue is they are inferior and infrequent often. Race is closer but could go either way.
That was the case in 2016 but this year a lot of the top tier pollsters are doing state polls.

[ElNono]

:lol No on the conclusion.

But for what it's worth, no way Trump loses if he gets PA; so I agree that it's better "news" for him. :tu

????

Biden winning Arizona (where he's polling better than PA or FL), means he doesn't need to win either of PA or FL to have a solid path to 270.

[ElNono]

ie:

https://www.270towin.com/maps/nG9Nl.png

[Spurtacular]

????

Biden winning Arizona (where he's polling better than PA or FL), means he doesn't need to win either of PA or FL to have a solid path to 270.

Good luck with completing that hail mary.

[ElNono]

Good luck with completing that hail mary.

What hail mary? the only one that needs a hail mary at this stage is Dennison...

It would be quite a bit of poetic justice if McCain's Arizona delivers the fatal blow to POTUS again...

[Reck]

????

Biden winning Arizona (where he's polling better than PA or FL), means he doesn't need to win either of PA or FL to have a solid path to 270.

Where are you getting that he's polling better in Arizona than PA?

[Spurtacular]

What hail mary? the only one that needs a hail mary at this stage is Dennison...

It would be quite a bit of poetic justice if McCain's Arizona delivers the fatal blow to POTUS again...

:lol Licking that war monger's ass so much.

[ElNono]

Where are you getting that he's polling better in Arizona than PA?

Just looking at the last few A polls on 538. Today's A polls show +5 in PA, and last few A polls in AZ show +6/+7...

It's more or less the same difference, but any news of polls tightening in PA is much better news for Dennison than Joe (which is where this conversation came from).

[ElNono]

:lol Licking that war monger's ass so much.

Mostly trolling... but I know it would hurt MAGAtards twice as much, so that's a plus in my book :lol

[Spurtacular]

Mostly trolling... but I know it would hurt MAGAtards twice as much, so that's a plus in my book :lol

Weak trolls go to bat for stuff they don't care for.

[Spurtacular]

Just looking at the last few A polls on 538. Today's A polls show +5 in PA, and last few A polls in AZ show +6/+7...

It's more or less the same difference, but any news of polls tightening in PA is much better news for Dennison than Joe (which is where this conversation came from).

Muh fake polls won't get it done. One side is energized. The other side has a corpse and a whore.

[pgardn]

https://apple.news/A7TSaYz9rRvy5FV9BlxwNcw

when will the red team actually take this seriously?

[ElNono]

Weak trolls go to bat for stuff they don't care for.

Don't know much about weak trolls, but I'll take your word for it.


Muh fake polls won't get it done. One side is energized. The other side has a corpse and a whore.

It doesn't matter how 'energized' one side is if they don't have enough votes to propel a candidate through.

These elections are never determined by the base on either party.

[lefty]

Trump will win
Don’t underestimate the power of belief

Nigga is like Palpatine, he knows he’s gonna win no matter what

[pgardn]

Trump will win
Don’t underestimate the power of belief

Nigga is like Palpatine, he knows he’s gonna win no matter what

he is scared shit less he knows he’s not gonna win.

and he is going to lose to someone who he thinks is totally inferior to him
it’s going to kill him, while he’s in jail

[DarrinS]

he is scared shit less he knows he’s not gonna win.

and he is going to lose to someone who he thinks is totally inferior to him
it’s going to kill him, while he’s in jail

Are you okay?

[ElNono]

1318910307939614724

totally right about this, tbh

[Winehole23]

Glenn Greenwald is the line where anti-anti-Trumpism shades off into pro-Trumpism, but i agree with him about Assange and cable news.

[Trainwreck2100]

1318910307939614724

totally right about this, tbh

said it before and I'll say it again the Lincoln project is setting themselves up for the most predictable heel turn in history

[Will Hunting]

Glenn Greenwald is the line where anti-anti-Trumpism shades off into pro-Trumpism, but i agree with him about Assange and cable news.
Julie Assange is a right wing political operative who wanted to help Trump get elected. He’s a piece of shit and I hope he gets shower raped as much as possible while he’s in prison.

[Rummpd]

For this paper pretty fair read

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/22/us/politics/can-trump-win-the-election.html


2 polls last 48 hours including IBD have him within 3 on national vote but it all depends on what happens in a few states.

[Spurtacular]

Julie Assange is a right wing political operative who wanted to help Trump get elected. He’s a piece of shit and I hope he gets shower raped as much as possible while he’s in prison.

How dare he expose Hillary's corruption!

#AlwaysWithDatPscyho :lmao

[Winehole23]

Julie Assange is a right wing political operative who wanted to help Trump get elected. He’s a piece of shit and I hope he gets shower raped as much as possible while he’s in prison.I can understand the sore feelings about 2016, but there's little evidence, looking at the Wikileaks body of work, that's it's ideologically motivated. GWB was calling for his head in 2006. Sarah Palin and Norm Coleman have been targets, the roster of the BNP (British National Party) was posted online by Wikileaks. The 2010 Chelsea Manning leaks don't seem to have been designed to discredit Obama in particular. Up til 2015 the trend doesn't look disctinctly partisan to me, YMMV, of course.

When exactly did Assange become a right wing pawn, in your opinion?

[Will Hunting]

I can understand the sore feelings about 2016, but there's little evidence, looking at the Wikileaks body of work, that's it's ideologically motivated. GWB was calling for his head in 2006. Sarah Palin and Norm Coleman have been targets, the roster of the BNP (British National Party) was posted online by Wikileaks. The 2010 Chelsea Manning leaks don't seem to have been designed to discredit Obama in particular. Up til 2015 the trend doesn't look disctinctly partisan to me, YMMV, of course.

When exactly did Assange become a right wing pawn, in your opinion?
When he made a deliberate effort to get a right wing oligarch elected president. It’s revisionist history to pretend Julie isn’t pro Trump.

[Winehole23]

When he made a deliberate effort to get a right wing oligarch elected president. It’s revisionist history to pretend Julie isn’t pro Trump.2016 then.

[Will Hunting]

2016 then.
What has Julie done to call out Trump for continuing to Bush-Obama drone/bomb foreign policy? Presumably if he was a nonpartisan he’d call out Trump’s interventionism just as much as he called it out when Obama did it.

[Spurtacular]

:cry Assange needs to expose corruption on both sides equally. :cry
:cry It's only fair. :cry

[Trainwreck2100]

For this paper pretty fair read

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/22/us/politics/can-trump-win-the-election.html


2 polls last 48 hours including IBD have him within 3 on national vote but it all depends on what happens in a few states.
Definitely an impartial voter, the most honest of honest brokers

[Spurminator]

Glenn Greenwald is the line where anti-anti-Trumpism shades off into pro-Trumpism

Definitely has a massive case of Liberal Twitter Derangement Syndrome.

[velik_m]

Muh fake polls won't get it done. One side is energized. The other side has a corpse and a whore.

I know Pence is not particularly active, but calling him a corpse is a bit mean.

[Winehole23]

What has Julie done to call out Trump for continuing to Bush-Obama drone/bomb foreign policy? Presumably if he was a nonpartisan he’d call out Trump’s interventionism just as much as he called it out when Obama did it.It might have changed the stakes for Assange to be living for years in diplomatic sanctuary under legal threat from multiple nations, but i don't disagree with what you're saying.

(Presumably, if Assange did Trump a solid he'll be getting a pardon soon, but nah, Trump'll probably crop dust him on his way out the door.)

[boutons_deux]

538 probability: 87% Biden / 12% Trash

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/

[Rummpd]

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/betting_odds/2020_president/

Those with money about 2:1 on Biden

https://medium.com/@Soccermatics/why-fivethirtyeight-predictions-dont-beat-prediction-markets-9d619b8c1c1e

Says those betting likely as good as 538 that blew 2016

[Spurtacular]

538 probability: 87% Biden / 12% Trash

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/

After Trump wins, Cuck Silver going to cry that he had to with the polls regardless of whether they were wrong.

Seen this movie already.

[Joseph Kony]

fat ass won by the skin of his teeth last time and shillary still won the popular vote :lol just face it, Trump is gonna get blown the fuck out

[Reck]

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/betting_odds/2020_president/

Those with money about 2:1 on Biden

https://medium.com/@Soccermatics/why-fivethirtyeight-predictions-dont-beat-prediction-markets-9d619b8c1c1e

Says those betting likely as good as 538 that blew 2016

538 Gave Trump a 35% chance of winning which was far greater than anyone else.

[Spurtacular]

fat ass won by the skin of his teeth last time and shillary still won the popular vote :lol just face it, Trump is gonna get blown the fuck out

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ek_JyqLVkAAZVVS?format=jpg&name=small

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ek_KKYdVcAEyEpa?format=jpg&name=small

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ek_KbPQUYAAVKSP?format=jpg&name=small

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ek_Ks3OUcAAcaqy?format=jpg&name=small

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ek_Ru-OXUAMaBiy?format=jpg&name=small

https://thumbs.gfycat.com/FlimsyAchingAxolotl-small.gif

[Reck]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ek_JyqLVkAAZVVS?format=jpg&name=small

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ek_KKYdVcAEyEpa?format=jpg&name=small

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ek_KbPQUYAAVKSP?format=jpg&name=small

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ek_Ks3OUcAAcaqy?format=jpg&name=small

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ek_Ru-OXUAMaBiy?format=jpg&name=small

https://thumbs.gfycat.com/FlimsyAchingAxolotl-small.gif

Twitter polls?

This is desperate even for you. But I'll allow it since your boy got roughed up last night so you're looking for that silver lining.

[ChumpDumper]

:lol derp melting down about a debate and trying to steal memes.

[Spurtacular]

Twitter polls?

This is desperate even for you. But I'll allow it since your boy got roughed up last night so you're looking for that silver lining.

:lmao Even fake CNN called it only 53 percent for Zombie Rapist.

You got your ass whooped. :rollin

[Reck]

:lmao Even fake CNN called it only 53 percent for Zombie Rapist.

You got your ass whooped. :rollin

And you think that's not good? lol

What did Trump get?

[Spurtacular]

And you think that's not good? lol

What did Trump get?

Of course it's not good (for Harris/Biden). They had to limit their fakery cos Joe got his ass whooped so soundly.

[Reck]

Of course it's not good (for Harris/Biden). They had to limit their fakery cos Joe got his ass whooped so soundly.

:lol Majority suddenly doesn't rule.

[Splits]

Julie Assange is a right wing political operative who wanted to help Trump get elected. He’s a piece of shit and I hope he gets shower raped as much as possible while he’s in prison.

This is wrong. Assange isn't left or right, he is anti-American-homogeny which means to sow as much discord within the political system and have them self-harm as much as possible by electing the worst possible candidate. He's pro-Trump because it advances that agenda, for the US not to be the world superpower. And there's merit to that.

[Spurminator]

Posting Twitter polls as evidence of anything meaningful is a sign of a hopelessly stupid person.

[Spurtacular]

Posting Twitter polls as evidence of anything meaningful is a sign of a hopelessly stupid person.

The Las Vegas Review Journal was butthurt about Trump winning their own poll too.
They had to tout CNN's fake poll too. :lmao

https://www.reviewjournal.com/sports/betting/biden-wins-debate-according-to-poll-but-trumps-odds-improve-2159025/

[Will Hunting]

That thank post I just hit was a mistype :lol

[Will Hunting]

This is wrong. Assange isn't left or right, he is anti-American-homogeny which means to sow as much discord within the political system and have them self-harm as much as possible by electing the worst possible candidate. He's pro-Trump because it advances that agenda, for the US not to be the world superpower. And there's merit to that.
He wants to sow discord by making it so America is controlled by a radical right wing oligarch? Yeah, I’d say that makes someone a right wing operative.

[SnakeBoy]

1319705719323570176

[Reck]

1319705719323570176

lol happening nationwide.

That fact doesn't extend beyond Florida. More people are voting dem in places like Texas (Still wont matter) and Giorgia for example.

[Will Hunting]

Texas and Georgia as far as I know aren’t even releasing party registration info for who’s already voted.

I said it in another thread but registered Rs in Florida always show up. Tracking which party registration has more of a lead in Florida is stupid, the variable that changes election by election is registered D turnout. The only stat in Florida early voting that really matters is registered Dem turnout; registered R turnout will be at 80+% the way it always is, whether they vote early or on Election Day.

[ChumpDumper]

The Las Vegas Review Journal was butthurt about Trump winning their own poll too.
They had to tout CNN's fake poll too. :lmao

https://www.reviewjournal.com/sports/betting/biden-wins-debate-according-to-poll-but-trumps-odds-improve-2159025/

:lol you don't know who owns the LVRJ.

:lol ignorant derp

[Splits]

He wants to sow discord by making it so America is controlled by a radical right wing oligarch? Yeah, I’d say that makes someone a right wing operative.

You're ignoring everything he did during the Bush years. He's an anti-imperialist and wants the worst for American influence. You only see things through a left/right prism, not everything fits that mold

[Will Hunting]

You're ignoring everything he did during the Bush years. He's an anti-imperialist and wants the worst for American influence. You only see things through a left/right prism, not everything fits that mold
During the Bush and Obama years he was a nonpartisan who just wanted to expose American war crimes.

Then in 2016 he decided to go from nonpartisan figure to right wing operative.

[DMX7]

:lol you don't know who owns the LVRJ.

:lol ignorant derp

Even if he did know, he's not smart enough to understand the connection. :lol

[Will Hunting]

Also Julie Assange is a fucking retard if he thought getting Trump elected was going to usher in an era of anti-imperialism :lmao