Harris County shatters record for turnout on Day 1 of early voting

[tholdren]

Immediate cause of death is what's written on the death certificate. If you get COVID, and COVID causes acute renal failure leading to death, acute renal failure is what's written on the death certificate.

This is misleading at best.

[DarrinS]

There have been many stories of people who are fit and in seemingly good health die in their early to mid-30's. Some people are just affected by it more than others and which symptoms you get may just be up to genetics.

Outliers. Mostly early in the pandemic, when doctors didn't understand the disease. Almost 90% of people they put on ventilators died in NYC.

[Bogie]

Immediate cause of death is what's written on the death certificate. If you get COVID, and COVID causes acute renal failure leading to death, acute renal failure is what's written on the death certificate.


I am aware of this. Just explaining to darrin how dumb he sounds.

the primary cause of death is listed first, and then all other medical factors that were present at the time of death are listed next.

[Bogie]

1. The cdc website.
2. The cdc website
3. The cdc website


then you should be able to cite the specific sections of the website that have led you to believe this is not a big deal

[Spurminator]

I still wear a mask to make you pussies feel safe.

Seriously go fuck yourself for this you piece of shit. Some of us don't want to pass the virus on to our parents or to other at-risk people because we have fucking empathy. If your anti-maskness makes you feel like a big tough guy, you're the biggest pussy here.

[tholdren]

I am aware of this. Just explaining to darrin how dumb he sounds.

the primary cause of death is listed first, and then all other medical factors that were present at the time of death are listed next.

If covid is listed Anywhere on the cert. Its a covid death.

The end

[Spurminator]

thousands of people have died because of people like Darrin not being able to see this virus past two degrees of separation.

[DarrinS]

Seriously go fuck yourself for this you piece of shit. Some of us don't want to pass the virus on to our parents or to other at-risk people because we have fucking empathy. If your anti-maskness makes you feel like a big tough guy, you're the biggest pussy here.

As I said, I'm not anti mask.

[tholdren]

Seriously go fuck yourself for this you piece of shit. Some of us don't want to pass the virus on to our parents or to other at-risk people because we have fucking empathy. If your anti-maskness makes you feel like a big tough guy, you're the biggest pussy here.

Loloooloolool

Crazy illogical here.

You think you have to wear a mask because you're always infected or contagious and that you will spread the virus to your parents or at risk people?

That's pretty dumb

[Bogie]

This is misleading at best.

if you don’t understand what you’re talking about you should not participate.

Now as I was asking for specific sections of the cdc website, showing what it was that has led to your opinions on the covid 19 virus, I’ll go first to provide an actual citation to show you don’t know what you’re talking about here

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/dvs/blue_form.pdf

[DarrinS]

thousands of people have died because of people like Darrin not being able to see this virus past two degrees of separation.


Most died when the disease was poorly understood. The rest because they were old or very unhealthy or sought treatment very late.

[tholdren]

if you don’t understand what you’re talking about you should not participate.

Now as I was asking for specific sections of the cdc website, showing what it was that has led to your opinions on the covid 19 virus, I’ll go first to provide an actual citation to show you don’t know what you’re talking about here

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/dvs/blue_form.pdf

Llloooolollollolll of covid is anywhere on the cert its a cov9d death. Just like I stated above.

[baseline bum]

Most died when the disease was poorly understood. The rest because they were old or very unhealthy or sought treatment very late.

I thought most died because Muh Cuomo

[DarrinS]

I thought most died because Muh Cuomo

Not inconsistent with my post.

[Spurminator]

Most died when the disease was poorly understood. The rest because they were old or very unhealthy or sought treatment very late.

Yeah and they died because they caught the disease from other people, who caught it from other people, who may have caught it from you because you were all like, "Pfft, whatever, I'm not afraid of this bullshit."

[tholdren]

I thought most died because Muh Cuomo

More people died from cuomo then all of sweden no masks no lockdown no hospitals over capacity.

Use math and science

[tholdren]

Yeah and they died because they caught the disease from other people, who caught it from other people, who may have caught it from you because you were all like, "Pfft, whatever, I'm not afraid of this bullshit."

Thats not true. Keep lying

[DarrinS]

I remember getting pushback when I said I'd never allow myself to be put on a ventilator.

[Spurminator]

As I said, I'm not anti mask.

Sure you are. You might wear it because you're afraid of standing out, or afraid of the law, but if anyone's listening your position is that masks are for pussies. You just said it. Maybe that's an alpha act, but I doubt it.

100 times out of 100 if there is a debate over masks, you're going to side with the anti-maskers. The proof is in the pudding, because you still can't bring yourself to criticize Republican attitudes about masks.

[tholdren]

Sure you are. You might wear it because you're afraid of standing out, or afraid of the law, but if anyone's listening your position is that masks are for pussies. You just said it. Maybe that's an alpha act, but I doubt it.

100 times out of 100 if there is a debate over masks, you're going to side with the anti-maskers. The proof is in the pudding, because you still can't bring yourself to criticize Republican attitudes about masks.

Masks dont work. Keep being scared

[DarrinS]

Yeah and they died because they caught the disease from other people, who caught it from other people, who may have caught it from you because you were all like, "Pfft, whatever, I'm not afraid of this bullshit."

I'm very isolated. Highly unlikely I gave it to anyone else.

[DarrinS]

Sure you are. You might wear it because you're afraid of standing out, or afraid of the law, but if anyone's listening your position is that masks are for pussies. You just said it. Maybe that's an alpha act, but I doubt it.

100 times out of 100 if there is a debate over masks, you're going to side with the anti-maskers. The proof is in the pudding, because you still can't bring yourself to criticize Republican attitudes about masks.


I'm in a heavily Republican area and we're all masked up. Sorry to disappoint you.

[baseline bum]

I remember getting pushback when I said I'd never allow myself to be put on a ventilator.

How about the pushback when you said you didn't wear masks in convenience stores?

[Blake]

I'm in a heavily Republican area and we're all masked up. Sorry to disappoint you.

Yeah like BB said, only because you have to be. Otherwise all the whiteys in your gated community would be singing their maskless hearts out at Cornerstone.

[DarrinS]

Yeah like BB said, only because you have to be. Otherwise all the whiteys in your gated community would be singing their maskless hearts out at Cornerstone.

I don't go to church.

[tholdren]

How about the pushback when you said you didn't wear masks in convenience stores?

Cry

[DarrinS]

How about the pushback when you said you didn't wear masks in convenience stores?

I didn't wear one for a week or so in the summer. But cases got high and they pretty much mandated them. I complied, and I continue to comply.

[Trainwreck2100]

Sure.
1. He's assuming everyone is susceptible
2. He's assuming cdc accuracies in case counts.
3. Hes assuming simply multiplying by 2 will give him the amount ef deaths essentially, without any type of statistical analysis i.e. distribution, population, sample, variance, etc..
nope

If you had population information you wouldn't be doing analysis. Sample is not analysis you use if for analysis because you don't know the population, the distribution was given by my sentence.

my numbers are based off a linear model yhat=12/545x1+2600/109 + e where deaths depend on cases all other factors ignored and of course epsilon is zero. You can argue that the model is incorrect because I have ignored the other factors but the math is not incorrect. I'm not out here to argue that the model is wrong, it's based off one prior. But math is math, and statistics is statistics. Statistics uses math but that doesn't mean when you are incorrect stat wise you are incorrect math wise. Your model can be incorrect but the math you used to get it is not.

[DarrinS]

Yeah like BB said, only because you have to be. Otherwise all the whiteys in your gated community would be singing their maskless hearts out at Cornerstone.

:lol

I didn't notice the "whiteys" reference before. What does that have to do with anything? :lol

[DarrinS]

nope

If you had population information you wouldn't be doing analysis. Sample is not analysis you use if for analysis because you don't know the population, the distribution was given by my sentence.

my numbers are based off a linear model yhat=12/545x1+2600/109 + e where deaths depend on cases all other factors ignored and of course epsilon is zero. You can argue that the model is incorrect because I have ignored the other factors but the math is not incorrect. I'm not out here to argue that the model is wrong, it's based off one prior. But math is math, and statistics is statistics. Statistics uses math but that doesn't mean when you are incorrect stat wise you are incorrect math wise. Your model can be incorrect but the math you used to get it is not.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4_0iNGn8wso

[tholdren]

nope

If you had population information you wouldn't be doing analysis. Sample is not analysis you use if for analysis because you don't know the population, the distribution was given by my sentence.

my numbers are based off a linear model yhat=12/545x1+2600/109 + e where deaths depend on cases all other factors ignored and of course epsilon is zero. You can argue that the model is incorrect because I have ignored the other factors but the math is not incorrect. I'm not out here to argue that the model is wrong, it's based off one prior. But math is math, and statistics is statistics. Statistics uses math but that doesn't mean when you are incorrect stat wise you are incorrect math wise. Your model can be incorrect but the math you used to get it is not.

This is all kinds of wrong explained by the definition of applied stats comparing population means, variances, etc. Keep going with the gossip

[Blake]

I don't go to church.

I didn't say you did

[Blake]

:lol

I didn't notice the "whiteys" reference before. What does that have to do with anything? :lol

What does you being in a heavy republican area have to do with anything? Your area is only wearing a mask because you have to.

[Trainwreck2100]

This is all kinds of wrong explained by the definition of applied stats comparing population means, variances, etc. Keep going with the gossip

You're a fucking idiot

[Trainwreck2100]

This is all kinds of wrong explained by the definition of applied stats comparing population means, variances, etc. Keep going with the gossip

also when you compare population means it's based off an interval, based off a sample. That doesnt mean you know the population mean

[tholdren]

also when you compare population means it's based off an interval, based off a sample. That doesnt mean you know the population mean
Beaahajahajaaahahhszuzuzuuauayayzyzuauzuzyzyzysyay agagahahahaysgs
You said "if you had population information you wouldn't be doing analysis"


Stop posting. Your math is terrible

[Trainwreck2100]

Beaahajahajaaahahhszuzuzuuauayayzyzuauzuzyzyzysyay agagahahahaysgs
You said "if you had population information you wouldn't be doing analysis"


Stop posting. Your math is terrible
if you had population statistics you wouldn't be doing any inference

[tholdren]

also when you compare population means it's based off an interval, based off a sample. That doesnt mean you know the population mean

Literally this guy said the above. Straight WrongdomGuy math.

[tholdren]

if you had population statistics you wouldn't be doing any inference

Lololoooooooolokloooolloollloolll


Now I understand why you think masks work.


Advice. Take a stats class.

[Trainwreck2100]

Lololoooooooolokloooolloollloolll


Now I understand why you think masks work.


Advice. Take a stats class.

If you have population statistics you don't have to estimate the parameters ergo no inference. However you never have population statistics, so you have to use inference. But you'd know that if you weren't getting your info and math words from facebook and shitty youtubes

[tholdren]

If you have population statistics you don't have to estimate the parameters ergo no inference. However you never have population statistics, so you have to use inference. But you'd know that if you weren't getting your info and math words from facebook and shitty youtubes
Loloooolloooloollollllollllllllllllll


Step away from the keyboard. You continue to be wrong with each post.

[Trainwreck2100]

Loloooolloooloollollllollllllllllllll


Step away from the keyboard. You continue to be wrong with each post.

no i'm not

[ElNono]

Little known fact. This virus doesn't kill you. Your own immune system kills you. Especially among the fat and old.

Same with AIDS... not sure how that's a little known fact.

[ElNono]

Will beat me to it. Looks like it was a known fact.

[baseline bum]

Will beat me to it. Looks like it was a known fact.

We were talking the cytokine storm from SARS-COV-2 back in January. LOL Karrin.

[ElNono]

https://www.bmj.com/content/370/bmj.m3563

Thanks for sharing, but that paper is far from conclusive (nor it makes the assertion) that there's "30%-50% pre-existing immunity".

Any other of the "numerous studies" verified that claim?

[ElNono]

Llloooolollollolll of covid is anywhere on the cert its a cov9d death. Just like I stated above.

foldren folds

[ElNono]

Loloooolloooloollollllollllllllllllll

Step away from the keyboard. You continue to be wrong with each post.

:lol another fold, you hate to see it

[Will Hunting]

Back on topic of this thread....this picture sums up why I’m fairly confident that Trump is in deep shit :lol

https://img-9gag-fun.9cache.com/photo/aj9PBbw_460s.jpg

[DMX7]

Back on topic of this thread....this picture sums up why I’m fairly confident that Trump is in deep shit :lol

https://img-9gag-fun.9cache.com/photo/aj9PBbw_460s.jpg

:rollin

[RandomGuy]

What does someone being fat have to do with Trump's fuckups with the pandemic?


You know who really handled like a boss? Cuomo

"muh Cuomo" Can't be honest that your guy is a disaster.

Fuckwit. smh.

[LaMarcus Bryant]

Back on topic of this thread....this picture sums up why I’m fairly confident that Trump is in deep shit :lol

https://img-9gag-fun.9cache.com/photo/aj9PBbw_460s.jpg

roflroflroflrofl
meme fucking spot on

[RandomGuy]

The data in Texas actually doesn’t look that promising for Democrats. Trump has the edge so far in early voting, in notable contrast to other battleground states where the Dems are +30 or more. Harris County has had enormous turnout, but Bexar, Dallas, and Travis have been meh. Meanwhile, you look at a Trump-heavy county like Denton where turnout increase percentage dwarfs even Harris.

Democrats believe that high turnout favors them: “when people vote, Democrats win.” That’s true when running against a patrician economic conservative. But white racial grievance populist identity politics are EXTREMELY popular in exurban and rural Texas, and are generating massive turnout. The male chauvinism also appeals to Hispanic men, which is why Trump is running in the high 30’s among Hispanics.

Dan Patrick’s bloviating aside, the Trump campaign thinks that Trump will win by four. Biden’s campaign believes the same thing. Both believe the state is inelastic with few persuadable voters. With base turnout cranked up to 11 on both sides, the cake is largely baked. What’s possible in Texas for Democrats to get is the state legislature and some House seats.

Eyup. Starting to look that way. Saw glimpses of that in the early voting data, with the smaller counties reporting way head in terms of percentages of voter participation.

Be fascinating to see how it all shakes out. Texas is not going blue this time around, but there is a lot of room for Democrats to make gains.

[Will Hunting]

Not sure if these numbers are authentic or not, but EV data in Texas broken out by county.

Similar to what Extra Stout said, the mass population centers like Harris/Dallas county are definitely seeing big turnout, but not as much as the more affluent suburb-heavy counties like Denton/Collin county. IMO Texas is going to come down to whether Biden can win those counties. Beto closed a significant gap in those counties in 2018, but for Biden to win Texas he needs to win those counties.

1318181631371464704

[baseline bum]

Had about a 20 minute wait to vote today vs the two hours plus it looked like last week, so cast my straight ticket Democrat ballot this morning. I know Biden's not winning Texas, but I'm at least hoping high early turnout will force Trump to keep wasting money on ads in Texas. Still blows me away seeing Trump ads here when he has been pulling advertising in true battleground states like Michigan and Arizona, so every dollar pulled away from those states to be blown here is a small win.

[Will Hunting]

Fortunately all the long lines I'm seeing of southern Florida on twitter are full of people wearing masks in a state where they're not required, so unlikely Trump supporters.

Wonder when all the yard signs rmt is seeing in Miami are going to vote though.

[Will Hunting]

Had about a 20 minute wait to vote today vs the two hours plus it looked like last week, so cast my straight ticket Democrat ballot this morning. I know Biden's not winning Texas, but I'm at least hoping high early turnout will force Trump to keep wasting money on ads in Texas. Still blows me away seeing Trump ads here when he has been pulling advertising in true battleground states like Michigan and Arizona, so every dollar pulled away from those states to be blown here is a small win.
The real prize in Texas is winning a state house and blocking partisan gerrymandering for the next 10 years.

[baseline bum]

The real prize in Texas is winning a state house and blocking partisan gerrymandering for the next 10 years.

Much better chance of Biden winning Texas than that happening IMO.

[baseline bum]

Fucking gerrymandering in Texas. I live in a simultaneously safe Democrat federal house district and safe Republican state house district.

[Reck]

Fortunately all the long lines I'm seeing of southern Florida on twitter are full of people wearing masks in a state where they're not required, so unlikely Trump supporters.

Wonder when all the yard signs rmt is seeing in Miami are going to vote though.

Some reporter on tv said about 20% of voters in Florida are unaffiliated with either party. Biden is winning independents so if common sense applies, a good chunk of that vote is going to him too on top of the advantage dems have in just pure registration numbers.

[RandomGuy]

Back on topic of this thread....this picture sums up why I’m fairly confident that Trump is in deep shit :lol

https://img-9gag-fun.9cache.com/photo/aj9PBbw_460s.jpg

Eyup.

Over.
Broken.
Glass.

[RandomGuy]

Fucking gerrymandering in Texas. I live in a simultaneously safe Democrat federal house district and safe Republican state house district.

If this wave hands control of the house, Dems get to draw the maps.

Fucking asswipes in the Republican party will start caring about the issue then, I'll bet.

[baseline bum]

Fortunately all the long lines I'm seeing of southern Florida on twitter are full of people wearing masks in a state where they're not required, so unlikely Trump supporters.

Wonder when all the yard signs rmt is seeing in Miami are going to vote though.

I need to upgrade to the Soros SpeedPass that lets me skip the line the first 15 times.

[koriwhat]

"corporatist commie"

:lmao druggie too strung out to understand that doesnt make sense at all

it makes perfect sense. who donated to all yall's bs movements? that's right corporations... who put blm on all their bs? that's right corporations... etc... you can pretend that's not the case but it is.

as well, prove to me you can be strung out on multivitamins and sweet tea. please explain!

[koriwhat]

and in regards to moore, he is most def a corporatist commie. he was a radical loser as a teen and made money through our capitalist market yet he wants total control over our lives just like most with his sick pol ideology. prove me wrong!

[ElNono]

I need to upgrade to the Soros SpeedPass that lets me skip the line the first 15 times.

Soros will take a ballot box to your home... from 5 different States!

[Blake]

Druggy flings his monkey shit on the wall and wants others to clean it up.

It's just another reason why nobody takes you serious and instead just lols in your general direction

[TSA]

Some reporter on tv said about 20% of voters in Florida are unaffiliated with either party. Biden is winning independents so if common sense applies, a good chunk of that vote is going to him too on top of the advantage dems have in just pure registration numbers.

Heading into the Nov. 3 election, Florida Republicans are as close to parity with Democrats among registered voters as they’ve been in half a century or more.

The Florida Division of Elections on Thursday posted the final numbers for 2020 voter registration in the nation’s biggest battleground state. Republicans now head into Election Day with 5,169,012 voters and Democrats with 5,303,254 — a difference of just 134,242. The deadline to register was Oct. 6.

Those figures are good news for President Donald Trump, who beat 2016 Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton by 112,000 votes despite his party having 327,438 fewer registered voters than Democrats. This fall, Trump heads into another close battle — this time against former Vice President Joe Biden — with that number slashed by more than half.

Read more here: https://www.miamiherald.com/news/politics-government/state-politics/article246170245.html#storylink=cpy

https://twitter.com/CottoGottfried/status/1318282952078479360

[ChumpDumper]

Gotta love Trump supporters' just posting shit without any links or proof.

Guess it's by design now....

[Will Hunting]

Gotta love Trump supporters' just posting shit without any links or proof.

Guess it's by design now....
:lol there hasn't even been any reporting yet on in-person early voting in Florida. They're just making shit up.

https://countyballotfiles.floridados.gov/VoteByMailEarlyVotingReports/PublicStats

Regarding voter registration - a lot of the voter registration changes from D to R are people who haven't voted Democrat in decades and are now inspired by Trump to change their registration, and left-leaning zoomers who are registering for the first time are more likely to register with no party affiliation.

[ChumpDumper]

:lol there hasn't even been any reporting yet on in-person early voting in Florida. They're just making shit up.

https://countyballotfiles.floridados.gov/VoteByMailEarlyVotingReports/PublicStats

Regarding voter registration - a lot of the voter registration changes from D to R are people who haven't voted Democrat in decades and are now inspired by Trump to change their registration, and left-leaning zoomers who are registering for the first time are more likely to register with no party affiliation.PROVE IT'S NOT TRUE BIDEN DIDN'T DENY IT

[Reck]

Heading into the Nov. 3 election, Florida Republicans are as close to parity with Democrats among registered voters as they’ve been in half a century or more.

The Florida Division of Elections on Thursday posted the final numbers for 2020 voter registration in the nation’s biggest battleground state. Republicans now head into Election Day with 5,169,012 voters and Democrats with 5,303,254 — a difference of just 134,242. The deadline to register was Oct. 6.

Those figures are good news for President Donald Trump, who beat 2016 Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton by 112,000 votes despite his party having 327,438 fewer registered voters than Democrats. This fall, Trump heads into another close battle — this time against former Vice President Joe Biden — with that number slashed by more than half.

Read more here: https://www.miamiherald.com/news/politics-government/state-politics/article246170245.html#storylink=cpy

https://twitter.com/CottoGottfried/status/1318282952078479360

Ok and what does that have to do with my point about the unaffiliated who makes about 20-25%?

Dems still holds an advantage in numbers. And as I stated independents are breaking Biden's way.

Trump has lost women, seniors and independents.

Have fun dealing with that.

[TSA]

:lol there hasn't even been any reporting yet on in-person early voting in Florida. They're just making shit up.

https://countyballotfiles.floridados.gov/VoteByMailEarlyVotingReports/PublicStats

Regarding voter registration - a lot of the voter registration changes from D to R are people who haven't voted Democrat in decades and are now inspired by Trump to change their registration, and left-leaning zoomers who are registering for the first time are more likely to register with no party affiliation.

https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1318290550475411457

[Ef-man]

Soros will take a ballot box to your home... from 5 different States!

You get boxes from 10 states sent to your home via Prime with the Bill Gates cabal but you have to get the updated microchip with Alexa.

[Will Hunting]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1318290550475411457
The commentary below the tweet is saying Miami-Dade isn't included in that.

[Spurminator]

I don't know the legitimacy of @UMichVoter99 but if you trust his numbers and you're a Trump guy, you're not going to like his feed today.

[Reck]

The commentary below the tweet is saying Miami-Dade isn't included in that.

Or Duval county.

I noticed in that tweet he posted of that faggot's guy name Groto Duval wasn't included either.

TSA does so much cherry picking it's not even funny.

[Will Hunting]

I don't know the legitimacy of @UMichVoter99 but if you trust his numbers and you're a Trump guy, you're not going to like his feed today.
:lol

[Ef-man]

The commentary below the tweet is saying Miami-Dade isn't included in that.

Oh my, you mean to say that TSA was less than truthful, again?

Who would have thought.

[TSA]

The commentary below the tweet is saying Miami-Dade isn't included in that.

https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1318305631573606401

Miami-Dade reports EV tomorrow.

[Spurminator]

1317604945886121984

[tholdren]

Loloooolloooloollollllollllllllllllll


Step away from the keyboard. You continue to be wrong with each post.

Derptime

[Will Hunting]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1318305631573606401

Miami-Dade reports EV tomorrow.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/17YKazYaUMZ33vmd4YHDKcVdlTkP5DmnHQQlAttwOzL0/htmlview?pru=AAABdWbcBcs*G3qNecwyYmkO2mSuyp5HGQ#gi d=0

Dems have an advantage in Duval, Broward, Palm Beach, Hillsborough and Orange County. Where are these "urban centers" the original tweet you quoted claimed Democrats were losing early voting in?

[tholdren]

Beaahajahajaaahahhszuzuzuuauayayzyzuauzuzyzyzysyay agagahahahaysgs
You said "if you had population information you wouldn't be doing analysis"


Stop posting. Your math is terrible

Lol this

[ElNono]

You get boxes from 10 states sent to your home via Prime with the Bill Gates cabal but you have to get the updated microchip with Alexa.

I've 3 microchips already, hopefully they don't interfere with each-other, tbh

[tholdren]

Beaahajahajaaahahhszuzuzuuauayayzyzuauzuzyzyzysyay agagahahahaysgs
You said "if you had population information you wouldn't be doing analysis"


Stop posting. Your math is terrible

[Ef-man]

Show your math foldren.

[Blake]

This message is hidden because tholdren is on your ignore list.
View Post



I've never ignored anyone before but the crazy lols have just gone beyond annoying

[baseline bum]

Soros will take a ballot box to your home... from 5 different States!

Damn I'm going to order Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Ohio, North Carolina, and Wisconsin.

[Winehole23]

1317604945886121984This lead will be an election day deficit. Count on Trump to challenge the tabulation of returns.

[tholdren]

Beaahajahajaaahahhszuzuzuuauayayzyzuauzuzyzyzysyay agagahahahaysgs
You said "if you had population information you wouldn't be doing analysis"


Stop posting. Your math is terrible

Lolololollloll

[RD2191]

Show your math foldren.
:rollin

[tholdren]

Originally Posted by tholdren

Beaahajahajaaahahhszuzuzuuauayayzyzuauzuzyzyzysyay agagahahahaysgs
You said "if you had population information you wouldn't be doing analysis"


Stop posting. Your math is terrible





Lolooolollo

[ElNono]

Show your math foldren.

[Trainwreck2100]

I've 3 microchips already, hopefully they don't interfere with each-other, tbh

only happens if you're near 5g towers

[ElNono]

only happens if you're near 5g towers

Can't wait to try that out!

[tholdren]

Originally Posted by tholdren

Beaahajahajaaahahhszuzuzuuauayayzyzuauzuzyzyzysyay agagahahahaysgs
You said "if you had population information you wouldn't be doing analysis"


Stop posting. Your math is terrible





Lolooolollo

Boom

[Reck]

This Umich voter guy seems like he's on top of the counting in Florida.

1318332604274384902

[tholdren]

Lolooooolol

Covid ifr

[Reck]

1318333652045074433

[tholdren]

She notes, for example, if a man was in a hospice and was given weeks to live and happened to catch it, but die from the underlying condition, he would be counted as a “COVID” death.

[tholdren]

I won

[Will Hunting]

Basically a dead heat in Florida EV without Miami Dade or Sarasota counted yet.

1318523697926426625

[CosmicCowboy]

Texas is leading the nation in early voting. We are already at 45% of the total turnout of the 2016 election with two weeks left.

[Will Hunting]

Texas is leading the nation in early voting. We are already at 45% of the total turnout of the 2016 election with two weeks left.
I don't think that even includes yesterday's votes, so it might be closer to 50%. The suburb counties like Collin/Denton might even surpass 2016 turnout numbers before election day.

[Blake]

Texas is leading the nation in early voting. We are already at 45% of the total turnout of the 2016 election with two weeks left.

Did you already get your Trump vote in?

[Will Hunting]

https://twitter.com/CottoGottfried/status/1318282952078479360

1318531173937807360

Even though 800k more registered Dems requested a mail-in ballot in Florida, they still broke even on the first day of in-person voting. Would love to hear what "urban center" this stupid tweet was referring to.

[Will Hunting]

Sure enough when you factor in yesterday's vote totals Texas is already at 54% of 2016 turnout.

[CosmicCowboy]

Did you already get your Trump vote in?

No, but Sancho and your ex did, cuckadoodle.

[Reck]

1318531173937807360

Even though 800k more registered Dems requested a mail-in ballot in Florida, they still broke even on the first day of in-person voting. Would love to hear what "urban center" this stupid tweet was referring to.

They were keeping up. Looks like republicans have stepped it up. Lead by about 10 thousand in person votes. (No mail in ballots counted)

Still too early to tell whether that’s enough to overcome the massive advantage dems have in mail in.

[Will Hunting]

They were keeping up. Looks like republicans have stepped it up. Lead by about 10 thousand in person votes. (No mail in ballots counted)

Still too early to tell whether that’s enough to overcome the massive advantage dems have in mail in.
The R lead will expand even more once the Matt Gaetz counties start counting ballots too, but I don’t think it’s anything to sweat over either way. Both Trump and Biden are targeting demographics to flip in Florida so voter registration #s aren’t now going to tell the whole story. By election night total turnout by registration will be neck and neck in FL the same way it always is.

[Reck]

1318624904661618689

Is this good? A 500k seems like childs play. Dems need to keep padding this lead.

[Will Hunting]

1318624904661618689

Is this good? A 500k seems like childs play. Dems need to keep padding this lead.
They only have an 800k edge in requested mail-in ballots so 500k with two weeks left for ballots to be dropped off isn’t bad.

The big edge Biden should be taking advantage of is targeting his GOTV effort based off where we’re not seeing high Democrat turnout yet. Clayton County Georgia for example is a heavily black county that’s lagging behind the rest of the state in turnout. Either the Biden Campaign or Abrams’ grassroots group should be targeting it right now.

[Reck]

They only have an 800k edge in requested mail-in ballots so 500k with two weeks left for ballots to be dropped off isn’t bad.

The big edge Biden should be taking advantage of is targeting his GOTV effort based off where we’re not seeing high Democrat turnout yet. Clayton County Georgia for example is a heavily black county that’s lagging behind the rest of the state in turnout. Either the Biden Campaign or Abrams’ grassroots group should be targeting it right now.

That's for Florida though.

[Spurminator]

Are these "Dem advantage" numbers just talking about voters registered as Rep/Dem? Because you have to figure the nonaffiliated voters skew Democrat too.

[Will Hunting]

That's for Florida though.
I know, I was speaking in more general terms when I was using Clayton County as an example.

[Will Hunting]

Are these "Dem advantage" numbers just talking about voters registered as Rep/Dem? Because you have to figure the nonaffiliated voters skew Democrat too.
Yeah it’s just registered voters. You’d figure nonaffiliated voters skew Dem this time around but there’s a lot honest brokers who register independent and always vote Republican because they think Republicans winning among independent voters makes them look more credible.

[baseline bum]

Are these "Dem advantage" numbers just talking about voters registered as Rep/Dem? Because you have to figure the nonaffiliated voters skew Democrat too.

They usually skew Republican, you know, the honest brokers vote.

[baseline bum]

Yeah it’s just registered voters. You’d figure nonaffiliated voters skew Dem this time around but there’s a lot honest brokers who register independent and always vote Republican because they think Republicans winning among independent voters makes them look more credible.

Fuck I should have read your post before replying about the honest brokers. Honest brokers like Wild Cobra for instance count themselves as independents.

[Will Hunting]

Fuck I should have read your post before replying about the honest brokers. Honest brokers like Wild Cobra for instance count themselves as independents.
“Clearly Republicans are more reasonable and bipartisan, they win among independents every election!”

[Reck]

Fuck I should have read your post before replying about the honest brokers. Honest brokers like Wild Cobra for instance count themselves as independents.

Hopefully that gets offset by the independent karens who are also honest brokers but breaking for Biden this time.

[baseline bum]

“Clearly Republicans are more reasonable and bipartisan, they win among independents every election!”

I think it's more that people who claim to hate bothsides vote heavily Republican.

[Spurminator]

I think it's more that people who claim to hate bothsides vote heavily Republican.

Wouldn't that play out in surveys too, though? In polling, Independents are skewing heavily towards Democrats. I'd assume the h:lolnest br:lolkers you're talking about would also call themselves Independents in the polls, but there's clearly a bigger group that doesn't want to affiliate with one of the two parties and is leaning Dem. Bernie Bros? Never Trumpers?

[RandomGuy]

Texas is leading the nation in early voting. We are already at 45% of the total turnout of the 2016 election with two weeks left.

27.7% of all registered voters have voted so far.

[baseline bum]

Wouldn't that play out in surveys too, though? In polling, Independents are skewing heavily towards Democrats. I'd assume the h:lolnest br:lolkers you're talking about would also call themselves Independents in the polls, but there's clearly a bigger group that doesn't want to affiliate with one of the two parties and is leaning Dem. Bernie Bros? Never Trumpers?

Was just talking in general "independents" skew heavily right. For instance, Romney won them in 2012.

[tholdren]

27.7% of all registered voters have voted so far.

Bwahahahhahahahhahahahahhahahahah

[RandomGuy]

Texas is leading the nation in early voting. We are already at 45% of the total turnout of the 2016 election with two weeks left.

hmmm. Looks like we are already past the 2016 turn out.

Hard to make full sense of the data on the SOS website.
Registered voters 2016: 9.75M
Registered voters 2020: 16.95M

Cumulative in-person and mail in voters total 2016 (total all votes cast in early voting): 4.497M
Cumulative votes cast SO FAR, 2020: 4.708M :wow

LINK:
https://earlyvoting.texas-election.com/Elections/getElectionEVDates.do

[tholdren]

hmmm. Looks like we are already past the 2016 turn out.

Hard to make full sense of the data on the SOS website.
Registered voters 2016: 9.75M
Registered voters 2020: 16.95M

Cumulative in-person and mail in voters total 2016: 4.497M

Cumulative votes cast SO FAR, 2020: 4.708M

LINK:
https://earlyvoting.texas-election.com/Elections/getElectionEVDates.do

note: looks like the page is titled "early voting totals", but really represents ALL votes including election day if you go back in time.

2 more weeks coronabro

[RandomGuy]

Bwahahahhahahahhahahahahhahahahah

[monkey bashing typewriter.gif]

:lol

[tholdren]

[monkey bashing typewriter.gif]

:lol

Loloooloolloooll

Yet the monkey was smarter than you.
Lolool

Bring in the ships

[Will Hunting]

This guy's tweet thread sums Florida up pretty well imo (click on it if you want cause I'm not going to lodge every tweet).

Basically, we can assume registered Republicans in Florida are going to show up with very high turnout, whether it be on or before election day, so the statistic that matters more than anything else with early voting in Florida is turnout among registered Democrats. Registered Dems had 74.4% turnout in 2016, and if they get ~80% total turnout they probably win the state assuming they win independent voters by the same margin they won by in the 2018 governor race.

1318730507262320640

[pgardn]

This guy's tweet thread sums Florida up pretty well imo (click on it if you want cause I'm not going to lodge every tweet).

Basically, we can assume registered Republicans in Florida are going to show up with very high turnout, whether it be on or before election day, so the statistic that matters more than anything else with early voting in Florida is turnout among registered Democrats. Registered Dems had 74.4% turnout in 2016, and if they get ~80% total turnout they probably win the state assuming they win independent voters by the same margin they won by in the 2018 governor race.

1318730507262320640

If Florida could just go Biden early...
The red team would change masks and dump Trump out of the WH themselves.

[Reck]

If Florida could just go Biden early...
The red team would change masks and dump Trump out of the WH themselves.

Either Florida or NC.

I'm starting to think NC will be easier to flip.

[djohn2oo8]

1318723796094849025

so Harris County has a shot at 1.6 to 1.7 million early voters before Election Day. The county’s total voting population in 2016 was 1.3 million. It Texas flips Blue this is how it’s gonna go

[djohn2oo8]

1318634493406826496

hell fucking yeah!

[Will Hunting]

1318723796094849025

so Harris County has a shot at 1.6 to 1.7 million early voters before Election Day. The county’s total voting population in 2016 was 1.3 million. It Texas flips Blue this is how it’s gonna go
IMO they need to hit 75% registered voter participation in Harris County to have a chance. That might even be low. I'm more concerned with whether Denton/Collin county flip blue.

[djohn2oo8]

IMO they need to hit 75% registered voter participation in Harris County to have a chance. That might even be low. I'm more concerned with whether Denton/Collin county flip blue.
Yeah i think they are going to hit that mark. 10 more days may get them another 700-800,000 votes. Plus Election Day here normally garners about 30-40% of the total vote, so you may be looking at 1.6 million early votes, in a normal year in Harris County, 400-500,000 votes happen on Election Day. That number is going to be higher than that.

[djohn2oo8]

https://www.sos.state.tx.us/elections/historical/harris.shtml

[djohn2oo8]

How’s Denton and Collin looking?

[Will Hunting]

Yeah i think they are going to hit that mark. 10 more days may get them another 700-800,000 votes. Plus Election Day here normally garners about 30-40% of the total vote, so you may be looking at 1.6 million early votes, in a normal year in Harris County, 400-500,000 votes happen on Election Day. That number is going to be higher than that.
The bigger lift is Biden winning Denton/Collin County. The reason I say he has a clear shot at winning Texas if he wins Denton/Collin county is because if he's winning those two counties it means he's converting a huge chunk of suburban women who were previously lifelong Republicans.

[Will Hunting]

How’s Denton and Collin looking?
Huge turnout so far. I think their % of registered voters having already voted is higher than Harris County.

[djohn2oo8]

Going back over, I’m just throwing a number of 2.5 million registered voters just in the county. 75% of that would be 1,875,000. Yeah that’s gonna be an over on that one.

[djohn2oo8]

The bigger lift is Biden winning Denton/Collin County. The reason I say he has a clear shot at winning Texas if he wins Denton/Collin county is because if he's winning those two counties it means he's converting a huge chunk of suburban women who were previously lifelong Republicans.
Gotcha. Yeah, gonna be an interesting finish in a few weeks.

[tholdren]

If Florida could just go Biden early...
The red team would change masks and dump Trump out of the WH themselves.

Lolooooo

Cry



Covid not dangerous

[Will Hunting]

Texas up to 5.3 million early votes cast; ~60% of 2016 turnout.

Continuing to beat a dead horse, 40% of all registered voters in Collin and Denton County have already voted, and both counties are already over 70% of their 2016 turnout. That's not just people voting earlier than they typically do, it's record voter enthusiasm. Those counties are going to be the bellwether without a doubt.

[RandomGuy]

1318634493406826496

hell fucking yeah!

CRegistered Voters 16,955,519 # In Person On 10/20/2020 519,696 Cumulative In-Person Voters 4,617,056
Cumulative % In-Person 27.23% Cumulative By Mail Voters 698,599
Cumulative In-Person And Mail Voters 5,315,655 Cumulative Percent Early Voting 31.35%

Total votes cast in all of Texas 2016>> 8.9M
Total early votes cast in all of Texas in 2016>> 4.4M

[Reck]

Texas up to 5.3 million early votes cast; ~60% of 2016 turnout.

Continuing to beat a dead horse, 40% of all registered voters in Collin and Denton County have already voted, and both counties are already over 70% of their 2016 turnout. That's not just people voting earlier than they typically do, it's record voter enthusiasm. Those counties are going to be the bellwether without a doubt.

Who is that good for? Republicans or democrats?

[DarrinS]

Abbott clearly sucks at voter suppression. :lol

[Bogie]

Abbott clearly sucks at voter suppression. :lol


you are really dumb

[Will Hunting]

Who is that good for? Republicans or democrats?
It’s a TBD. Trump won both counties by a big margin in 2016, but Beto shrunk the margin a lot in 2018, picking up ~46.5% of the vote across both counties. Imo the record turnout were seeing is either uneducated white voters showing up in droves to vote for Trump or educated voters flipping to Biden. That’s why I’m predicting the winner of those counties wins Texas.

[Will Hunting]

Abbott clearly sucks at voter suppression. :lol
He does. He let Harris County have way too much autonomy setting up early voting and then tried to undo a lot of it in court and/or with executive orders. The effective voter suppression governors like Brian Kemp rule with an iron fist.

Did that talking point go as you expected it to go?

[Winehole23]

Georgia purges the voter rolls more efficiently than Texas.

[Will Hunting]

Georgia purges the voter rolls more efficiently than Texas.
They also shut polling places down more efficiently and are just more creative, like sending voting equipment to precincts in Fulton and Dekolb County and “accidentally” forgetting to send the power cord you need to turn the equipment on.

[RandomGuy]

Georgia purges the voter rolls more efficiently than Texas.

That is pretty much how they stole the Georgia election.

[RandomGuy]

What observers have missed about Texas is that besides the non-voting Hispanics that allegedly would vote 2:1 Dem if they could be convinced to go to the polls, there’s also a lot of historically non-voting white trash that weren’t interested in voting for Bush, McCain, or Romney, but turn out like bonkers for Trump, even more so now than in 2016, because he’s one of them. There’s a visceral connection there.

Eyup. If you look at the rural counties % participation rates in early voting that backs this up.

Equally visceral is the revulsion of a lot of non-voting Hispanics to the present administration.

Will be fascinating to see how it turns out.

[RandomGuy]

Lol, I'm emotional.

I thought Hillary had it in a landslide.

Now, it looks like Joe does.

Who knows

Nope. No one really said that, because that isn't what the polls showed.

fail.

[RandomGuy]

I’m not all that sure evangelical beliefs have any depth to them. Their identity is tied to a tribe, that tribe believes certain things, so they affirm them in order to be in that tribe, and that is that. But it’s all just labels they wear — there’s no thought put into any of it. Living out their faith consists of:
1) Go to Sunday sing-along pop concert
2) Listen to Sunday stand-up comedy/motivational speaker routine after the concert
3) Attend midweek book club meeting
4) Hate gays
5) Oppose abortion
6) Always vote Republican no matter what
I think for a lot of white evangelical Christians their “faith” is just part of being white. They follow the white people religion. It’s just a veneer they smear over their white nationalism to make it seem more respectable.

This.

[boutons_deux]

Eyup. If you look at the rural counties % participation rates in early voting that backs this up.

Equally visceral is the revulsion of a lot of non-voting Hispanics to the present administration.

Will be fascinating to see how it turns out.

i read today that Hispanic/Latino men are as averse to Dems as white men. A Macho Man orientation.

Even if Trash has killed Hispanics in higher %age than whites, looks like Hispanic men will vote Trash.

[RandomGuy]

As I said, I'm not anti mask.

Until it comes to climate science. Then you care fuckall for the science.

[RandomGuy]

i read today that Hispanic/Latino men are as averse to Dems as white men. A Macho Man orientation.

Even if Trash has killed Hispanics in higher %age than whites, looks like Hispanic men will vote Trash.

It isn't quite equivalent, but definitely a more Trumpward tilt.

[Trainwreck2100]

Georgia purges the voter rolls more efficiently than Texas.

Well in Abbot's defense he hasn't had to do it in years

[baseline bum]

What observers have missed about Texas is that besides the non-voting Hispanics that allegedly would vote 2:1 Dem if they could be convinced to go to the polls, there’s also a lot of historically non-voting white trash that weren’t interested in voting for Bush, McCain, or Romney, but turn out like bonkers for Trump, even more so now than in 2016, because he’s one of them. There’s a visceral connection there.

Gotta love hearing complaints for years how coastal elites think the heartland salt of the earth are stupid only for them to fall in love with a New York conman who is pretty much the definition of the coastal elite they all hated.

[RandomGuy]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1318305631573606401

Miami-Dade reports EV tomorrow.



UMichVoter
@umichvoter99
· 1h
FLORIDA: VOTE-BY-MAIL (12PM UPDATE)

Dem: 1,557,361 (+556,562)
Rep: 1,000,799
NPA/Other: 696,388

Total: 3,254,548

*since these are frequent questions:
1) no, broward is not in
2) yes, miami dade from this morning is in (but that's yesterday's processing)
11:38 AM · Oct 22, 2020·Twitter for iPhone

[RandomGuy]

1319299206826385409
1319315931051532288

(not sure if tweet thign is working)

Mail in ballots = Dem advantage by 550k

In person early voting Trump party advantage by 110k.

If that holds, it will make for a clear winner.

[weebo]

i read today that Hispanic/Latino men are as averse to Dems as white men. A Macho Man orientation.

Even if Trash has killed Hispanics in higher %age than whites, looks like Hispanic men will vote Trash.

Again with this bullshit....20-30% of latinos/a support trump ...drop this narrative that hispanic men carry with them some machismo orientation bullshit...this isn't the 1950's anymore...the vast majority of latinos (men and women) despise trump...that ones that will vote for him have drank the kool aide (mostly cuban trash and euro looking latinos)...stop perpetuating this myth

[spurraider21]

Gotta love hearing complaints for years how coastal elites think the heartland salt of the earth are stupid only for them to fall in love with a New York conman who is pretty much the definition of the coastal elite they all hated.
one of the best descriptions i had heard is that Trump is the poor person's idea of what a rich person is

[baseline bum]

one of the best descriptions i had heard is that Trump is the poor person's idea of what a rich person is

No shit man, he's like a lottery winner though he got his winning ticket through inheritance. And like lottery winners often do, he blew it all. Only to get rescued by NBC where he got to play poor man's idea of rich man on TV.

[RandomGuy]

Abbott clearly sucks at voter suppression. :lol

Uneducated twat, still not understanding that voter suppression happens.

If your party is so fucking great why does it have to cheat to win?

[Reck]

1319299206826385409
1319315931051532288

(not sure if tweet thign is working)

Mail in ballots = Dem advantage by 550k

In person early voting Trump party advantage by 110k.

If that holds, it will make for a clear winner.

In favor of whom?

Since republicans are turning out more in early voting in person, they might be cannibalizing their own votes come election day.

[boutons_deux]

so where is TX now with dropoff boxes? one per county, or not?

Repugs nationwide know they are a minority, and must rig, cheat, steal to win office.

[Reck]

1319358871731830785

[Extra Stout]

It’s a TBD. Trump won both counties by a big margin in 2016, but Beto shrunk the margin a lot in 2018, picking up ~46.5% of the vote across both counties. Imo the record turnout were seeing is either uneducated white voters showing up in droves to vote for Trump or educated voters flipping to Biden. That’s why I’m predicting the winner of those counties wins Texas.
District-level polling suggests TX-26 (Denton) is red, but TX-03 (Collin) shockingly, is leaning blue. Also, TX-21 (Hill Country) is leaning blue.

[Will Hunting]

District-level polling suggests TX-26 (Denton) is red, but TX-03 (Collin) shockingly, is leaning blue. Also, TX-21 (Hill Country) is leaning blue.
Makes sense, isn't Collin County the more educated/non-white nationalist of the two?

I still think the only way Biden flips Texas is if he finds a way to flip Denton County, hence why it's a long shot.

[TSA]

This guy's tweet thread sums Florida up pretty well imo (click on it if you want cause I'm not going to lodge every tweet).

Basically, we can assume registered Republicans in Florida are going to show up with very high turnout, whether it be on or before election day, so the statistic that matters more than anything else with early voting in Florida is turnout among registered Democrats. Registered Dems had 74.4% turnout in 2016, and if they get ~80% total turnout they probably win the state assuming they win independent voters by the same margin they won by in the 2018 governor race.

1318730507262320640

https://mobile.twitter.com/athein1/status/1319354044364673024

Link to interactive map that is updated every 20 minutes. Hover over counties to see 2016 vs 2020 comparisons. Not looking good for Joe at all.

[RandomGuy]

District-level polling suggests TX-26 (Denton) is red, but TX-03 (Collin) shockingly, is leaning blue. Also, TX-21 (Hill Country) is leaning blue.

(raised eyebrows)

Chip Roy loses, that will be the canary in the coal-mine. Dude has the white part of san marcos, but also all the new big-ass apartment complexes full of students being built there, and the massive growth in New Braunfels and north San Antonio that are probably shifting the Demographics a lot. Hays county was one of the fastest growing counties in the country , percentage wise, for a few years, since the last re-districting.

[RandomGuy]

In favor of whom?

Since republicans are turning out more in early voting in person, they might be cannibalizing their own votes come election day.

Really don't know. Interesting to see how it really goes, and if the fascist party ratfucking really shuts down Dems there. GOP did a good job in registrations, but you also have tons of displaced Puerto Ricans there. dunno. Too many moving parts to really be predictable.

My gut says actual election day will favor Dems marginally. The MAGAtards who are most worked up will vote early, as will the really worked up Dems.

That will leave a good chunk of the electorate who will vote on election day and who aren't as worked up over it. My guess is that the wider wave will effect that less-than worked-up crowd to break marginally for Biden.

[djohn2oo8]

Hit the one million mark

[TSA]

Hit the one million mark

And you're too broke to pay up on the 2000 mark

[djohn2oo8]

And you're too broke to pay up on the 2000 mark
You can login into Hunter Biden’s laptop and request a withdrawal there

[djohn2oo8]

1319739231544266755

70% before Election Day is absolutely gonna happen.

[TSA]

You can login into Hunter Biden’s laptop and request a withdrawal there

Is the password Welcher?

[djohn2oo8]

Is the password Welcher?
No. It’s WhereisSusanRicesIndictment

[vy65]

https://mobile.twitter.com/athein1/status/1319354044364673024

Link to interactive map that is updated every 20 minutes. Hover over counties to see 2016 vs 2020 comparisons. Not looking good for Joe at all.

The GOP caught an encouraging glimpse in Florida on Tuesday, when more Republicans began casting in-person, early ballots than Democrats in Trump’s must-win state. But Democrats have dominated voting by mail and on Thursday held a historic lead in total pre-Election Day ballots cast of 463,000, or 10 percentage points, according to the state’s Division of Elections. Gov. Ron DeSantis this week urged Republicans to vote early in person, a message Trump plans to echo on Saturday, when he’s expected to call on his base to get to the polls.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/23/early-voting-numbers-swing-states-431363

But yah, joeisdone.com is probably more credible than the Florida Division of Elections ...

[TSA]

The GOP caught an encouraging glimpse in Florida on Tuesday, when more Republicans began casting in-person, early ballots than Democrats in Trump’s must-win state. But Democrats have dominated voting by mail and on Thursday held a historic lead in total pre-Election Day ballots cast of 463,000, or 10 percentage points, according to the state’s Division of Elections. Gov. Ron DeSantis this week urged Republicans to vote early in person, a message Trump plans to echo on Saturday, when he’s expected to call on his base to get to the polls.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/23/early-voting-numbers-swing-states-431363

But yah, joeisdone.com is probably more credible than the Florida Division of Elections ...

https://twitter.com/CottoGottfried/status/1319724547122278402

It's been estimated D's need 650,000 to 750,000 VBM/EV lead to win Florida. Not going to happen.

[djohn2oo8]

1319748603020300288

[vy65]

https://twitter.com/CottoGottfried/status/1319724547122278402

It's been estimated D's need 650,000 to 750,000 VBM/EV lead to win Florida. Not going to happen.

Nope. Florida Division of Election's reports Dems up on GOP by 665,867 votes. (https://countyballotfiles.floridados.gov/VoteByMailEarlyVotingReports/PublicStats).

:lol free thinker twitter account

[Spurminator]

But yah, joeisdone.com is probably more credible than the Florida Division of Elections ...

:lmao :lmao :lmao

[TSA]

Nope. Florida Division of Election's reports Dems up on GOP by 665,867 votes. (https://countyballotfiles.floridados.gov/VoteByMailEarlyVotingReports/PublicStats).

:lol free thinker twitter account

:lol last updated 8:31 AM

[Trainwreck2100]

Nope. Florida Division of Election's reports Dems up on GOP by 665,867 votes. (https://countyballotfiles.floridados.gov/VoteByMailEarlyVotingReports/PublicStats).

:lol free thinker twitter account

saying the dems are losing is the exact opposite of what they should be doing they should be lighting a fire under their stupid base

[TSA]

Nope. Florida Division of Election's reports Dems up on GOP by 665,867 votes. (https://countyballotfiles.floridados.gov/VoteByMailEarlyVotingReports/PublicStats).

:lol free thinker twitter account

Check back in tomorrow after they update today’s received :bobo

[Spurminator]

saying the dems are losing is the exact opposite of what they should be doing they should be lighting a fire under their stupid base

I'm content to let the non-skeptical right live in their bubble where Trump is kicking ass in the debates and has a huge lead in the votes.

Seriously, he's killing it. No need to leave the basement to vote. Just stay home and keep trollin for Trump.

[vy65]

:lol last updated 8:31 AM

That's a helluva of fold. You went from posting unsourced tweets to time stamp smack.

Were does the Gilbert Gottfried or whatever twitter account you're hitting up get their information from TSA?

[Reck]

Not sure why TSA wants to be a shot caller 10 days out. Dems vs Reps are not going to win without the independents who I believe are the ones who will tilt Florida either way.

[Extra Stout]

TX-6 (Arlington-Waxahachie-Corsicana): Biden leads
TX-22 (Sugar Land-Pearland): Biden WAY up
TX-10 (Cypress-Brenham-Elgin-N. Austin): Trump +1

I’m confused. With these kinds of numbers, where exactly are the Trump voters supposed to come from, besides The Woodlands? The “inferred party affiliation” looks to be WAY off.

[Will Hunting]

TX-6 (Arlington-Waxahachie-Corsicana): Biden leads
TX-22 (Sugar Land-Pearland): Biden WAY up
TX-10 (Cypress-Brenham-Elgin-N. Austin): Trump +1

I’m confused. With these kinds of numbers, where exactly are the Trump voters supposed to come from, besides The Woodlands? The “inferred party affiliation” looks to be WAY off.
What polls are you looking at? Im not seeing it on 538. I really like the Dem candidate in Texas 10th, I didn’t think he actually had a chance though.

[tholdren]

Lolooookloollll


Cov8d!!!!

[djohn2oo8]

TX-6 (Arlington-Waxahachie-Corsicana): Biden leads
TX-22 (Sugar Land-Pearland): Biden WAY up
TX-10 (Cypress-Brenham-Elgin-N. Austin): Trump +1

I’m confused. With these kinds of numbers, where exactly are the Trump voters supposed to come from, besides The Woodlands? The “inferred party affiliation” looks to be WAY off.
Katy is pretty solid Trump I believe. Then maybe the heights. Pasadena, La Porte. Inner city Houston Biden will destroy. Fort Bend County should also lean heavily Biden.

[djohn2oo8]

1318194917966041089

Trump won this district back in 16

[djohn2oo8]

1319957558912835585

this is what is needed. Fort Bend had about 428,000 registered voters in 2018 so it’s possible it’s closer to 500,000. About 50 percent turnout already, that’s solid. And going for Biden. By at least 10 percent.

[Will Hunting]

1319957558912835585

this is what is needed. Fort Bend had about 428,000 registered voters in 2018 so it’s possible it’s closer to 500,000. About 50 percent turnout already, that’s solid. And going for Biden. By at least 10 percent.
It went to Beto by more than 10% so it’s probably going to Biden by closer to 15%.

The beaner counties near the border are doing better than they normally do, but they’re still lagging way behind the rest of the state. El Paso has only 30% registered voter turnout so far while the state as a whole has 40%. I don’t see how the state flips if Latinos are still allergic to voting.

[djohn2oo8]

It went to Beto by more than 10% so it’s probably going to Biden by closer to 15%.

The beaner counties near the border are doing better than they normally do, but they’re still lagging way behind the rest of the state. El Paso has only 30% registered voter turnout so far while the state as a whole has 40%. I don’t see how the state flips if Latinos are still allergic to voting.

it’s going to be tough, even if you have normally red districts flipping Blue.

[djohn2oo8]

Dallas County is going to hit close to 90% of registered voters casting a vote

[djohn2oo8]

https://scontent-dfw5-2.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/fr/cp0/e15/q65/122678082_5019480004743973_7562525141884909837_n.j pg?_nc_cat=100&ccb=2&_nc_sid=110474&efg=eyJpIjoidCJ9&_nc_ohc=5QZGWu8CtucAX9hzOuR&_nc_ht=scontent-dfw5-2.xx&tp=14&oh=4c17ca955565b1b7c48f9bef3cf1ac4b&oe=5FB95BA6

[Will Hunting]

Dallas County is going to hit close to 90% of registered voters casting a vote
Is that based on something or just wishcasting? I’d love for you to be right but that seems really high for a county that has so many low propensity voters.

[djohn2oo8]

Is that based on something or just wishcasting? I’d love for you to be right but that seems really high for a county that has so many low propensity voters.
A little bit of both. With 563,000 voters already whom have voted early, the 2016 total numbers for the county show about 750,000. For by he next 6 days to reach 750,000, the county would only have to average a little over 30,000 a day voting to get there.

Where my optimism is coming from, because Dallas County averages around 200,000 voters on Election Day, and because this is not a normal election year, with the Early Voting numbers up, I think Election Day numbers are going to be insane. The county will hit 1 million for sure and hopefully closer to that 1.2 mil. If the EV numbers are up this much, those 200,000 voters, are going to go up. Covid of course plays a part in this, but folks will get out to the polls.

[djohn2oo8]

https://www.sos.state.tx.us/elections/historical/dallas.shtml

[TSA]

Check back in tomorrow after they update today’s received :bobo

:lol vy65

[djohn2oo8]

1320017718398095361
Abbott gonna sue Metro :lol

[Will Hunting]

A little bit of both. With 563,000 voters already whom have voted early, the 2016 total numbers for the county show about 750,000. For by he next 6 days to reach 750,000, the county would only have to average a little over 30,000 a day voting to get there.

Where my optimism is coming from, because Dallas County averages around 200,000 voters on Election Day, and because this is not a normal election year, with the Early Voting numbers up, I think Election Day numbers are going to be insane. The county will hit 1 million for sure and hopefully closer to that 1.2 mil. If the EV numbers are up this much, those 200,000 voters, are going to go up. Covid of course plays a part in this, but folks will get out to the polls.
I'm not sure where you're getting the 750k number from, Dallas has just under 1.4 million registered voters, so they'd need 1.26 million votes to reach 90%. 90% voter turnout is extremely difficult even in counties that have no voter suppression and are full of middle aged high propensity white voters.

There's even less room for error when you factor in people registered who are inactive voters (I'm still registered in Dallas County even though I haven't lived in Texas in over a year).

[tholdren]

Really don't know. Interesting to see how it really goes, and if the fascist party ratfucking really shuts down Dems there. GOP did a good job in registrations, but you also have tons of displaced Puerto Ricans there. dunno. Too many moving parts to really be predictable.

My gut says actual election day will favor Dems marginally. The MAGAtards who are most worked up will vote early, as will the really worked up Dems.

That will leave a good chunk of the electorate who will vote on election day and who aren't as worked up over it. My guess is that the wider wave will effect that less-than worked-up crowd to break marginally for Biden.

Bwahahhahajajajajjajahahahahahajaj

Your gut.


2 more weeks

At least you aren't trying math.

Loloookokloolllooll

Pretending to understand statistics

HYSTERICAL

[TSA]

https://twitter.com/CottoGottfried/status/1319724547122278402

It's been estimated D's need 650,000 to 750,000 VBM/EV lead to win Florida. Not going to happen.





Nope. Florida Division of Election's reports Dems up on GOP by 665,867 votes. (https://countyballotfiles.floridados.gov/VoteByMailEarlyVotingReports/PublicStats).

:lol free thinker twitter account


Check back in tomorrow after they update today’s received :bobo

https://mobile.twitter.com/KevinCate/status/1319981431284707328

https://countyballotfiles.floridados.gov/VoteByMailEarlyVotingReports/PublicStats

I’m sorry this is happening to you.

[tholdren]

Bwahahhahajajajajjajahahahahahajaj

Your gut.


2 more weeks

At least you aren't trying math.

Loloookokloolllooll

Pretending to understand statistics

HYSTERICAL

[Reck]

:lmao TSA calling elections a week before they happen.

[GB20]

https://mobile.twitter.com/KevinCate/status/1319981431284707328

https://countyballotfiles.floridados.gov/VoteByMailEarlyVotingReports/PublicStats

I’m sorry this is happening to you.
Kevin cate made a prediction that Joe Biden will win Florida.

[Bogie]

https://mobile.twitter.com/KevinCate/status/1319981431284707328

https://countyballotfiles.floridados.gov/VoteByMailEarlyVotingReports/PublicStats

I’m sorry this is happening to you.

Wait. You’re never here on weekends, remember?

[TSA]

Wait. You’re never here on weekends, remember?

I'm sitting in my office at work right now. Your obsession with when I post here is beyond creepy.

[TSA]

:lol vy65

I saw you lurking vy65 :lol

[Reck]

I'm sitting in my office at work right now. Your obsession with when I post here is beyond creepy.

Then...get some work done. Lol

[Spurminator]

https://mobile.twitter.com/KevinCate/status/1319981431284707328

https://countyballotfiles.floridados.gov/VoteByMailEarlyVotingReports/PublicStats

I’m sorry this is happening to you.

You/Kevin and vy65 aren't using the same numbers. vy65 was counting mail-in ballots that haven't been returned.

It's not like the advantage swung all the way from 665K to 390K. :lol

[Bogie]

I'm sitting in my office at work right now. Your obsession with when I post here is beyond creepy.


No, you stupid piece of shit. You claimed that you are never on here on the weekends when you were asked about why you spend 10 hours/day on here spamming q shit. Even though you play 27 rounds of golf a week, and are incredibly wealthy and successful

so you lied about that. What else do you lie about?

[TSA]

You/Kevin and vy65 aren't using the same numbers. vy65 was counting mail-in ballots that haven't been returned.

It's not like the advantage swung all the way from 665K to 390K. :lolWhy would vy65 be discussing mail-in ballots that haven't been returned?

He responded directly to this tweet I posted specifically discussing returned vote by mail and in person early voting.

https://twitter.com/CottoGottfried/status/1319724547122278402

[tholdren]

Originally Posted by tholdren

Bwahahhahajajajajjajahahahahahajaj

Your gut.


2 more weeks

At least you aren't trying math.

Loloookokloolllooll

Pretending to understand statistics

HYSTERICAL

[TSA]

No, you stupid piece of shit. You claimed that you are never on here on the weekends when you were asked about why you spend 10 hours/day on here spamming q shit. Even though you play 27 rounds of golf a week, and are incredibly wealthy and successful

so you lied about that. What else do you lie about?

If I spend 10 hours a day as you here as you claim while averaging 3.66 posts a day how many hours a day do you spend here while averaging 13.05 posts a day?

[TSA]

Then...get some work done. Lol

Work's done bout to head out. :bobo

[tholdren]

No, you stupid piece of shit. You claimed that you are never on here on the weekends when you were asked about why you spend 10 hours/day on here spamming q shit. Even though you play 27 rounds of golf a week, and are incredibly wealthy and successful

so you lied about that. What else do you lie about?

Loloooolooll you mask wearer

[Bogie]

If I spend 10 hours a day as you here as you claim while averaging 3.66 posts a day how many hours a day do you spend here while averaging 13.05 posts a day?


because you’ve gotten abused for the q nonsense you try to forward, and disappear for long stretches, just a guess.

[tholdren]

because you’ve gotten abused for the q nonsense you try to forward, and disappear for long stretches, just a guess.

You hiding coronabro?

[Spurminator]

Why would vy65 be discussing mail-in ballots that haven't been returned?

He responded directly to this tweet I posted specifically discussing returned vote by mail and in person early voting.

https://twitter.com/CottoGottfried/status/1319724547122278402

Ballots received shows intent to vote. Safe to assume the vast majority of those ballots will be cast.

It's fine to leave them out, I'm just saying the two of you aren't using the same metrics. The change in votes over the past day when you don't count non-returned ballots is +37K for Republicans, which is literally in the tweet you posted.

[TSA]

because you’ve gotten abused for the q nonsense you try to forward, and disappear for long stretches, just a guess.

Incoherent dodge.

Answer the question pussy.

If I spend 10 hours a day as you here as you claim while averaging 3.66 posts a day how many hours a day do you spend here while averaging 13.05 posts a day?

[Bogie]

You hiding coronabro?

Didn’t you say you were traveling the world?

[ChumpDumper]

f:lolldren looking for friends

[tholdren]

:lol foldren looking for friends

Bwahahahahahahhaha

Chumpdump says he wears a mask to save lives.

[TSA]

Ballots received shows intent to vote. Safe to assume the vast majority of those ballots will be cast.

It's fine to leave them out, I'm just saying the two of you aren't using the same metrics. The change in votes over the past day when you don't count non-returned ballots is +37K for Republicans, which is literally in the tweet you posted.

I am almost positive vy65 was not discussing non-returned ballots, I know I wasn't. He can come clear that up though.

[Bogie]

Incoherent dodge.

Answer the question pussy.

If I spend 10 hours a day as you here as you claim while averaging 3.66 posts a day how many hours a day do you spend here while averaging 13.05 posts a day?


You calling anyone a pussy. Your unable to do simple math. Really makes me dubious about how incredibly successful you are

You better get to the golf course since you’re never ever here on weekends.

[ChumpDumper]

Bwahahahahahahhaha

Chumpdump says he wears a mask to save lives.You lie.

I wear it to slow the spread of the virus in case I am a carrier.

You're too afraid to say how the virus spreads.

You're afraid of me.

lol you

[tholdren]

You lie.

I wear it to slow the spread of the virus in case I am a carrier.

You're too afraid to say how the virus spreads.

You're afraid of me.

lol you

Llloooolooolloolllloolloll

Slow the virus in case I'm a carrier. Lololoooolllllllllll

Chumpdump on that forget science all in for fear train..

9 months later


Hilarious

[Spurminator]

I am almost positive vy65 was not discussing non-returned ballots, I know I wasn't. He can come clear that up though.

You don't know that you weren't. Your tweet yesterday gave no indication of how they were counting ballots.

If vy65 was not counting non-returned ballots, and he was correct about Dems leading by over 600,000, then this tweet that you posted today wouldn't say "-37,402 from yesterday." It would be more like -250,000. Fairly easy math.


https://mobile.twitter.com/KevinCate/status/1319981431284707328

https://countyballotfiles.floridados.gov/VoteByMailEarlyVotingReports/PublicStats

I’m sorry this is happening to you.

[ChumpDumper]

Llloooolooolloolllloolloll

Slow the virus in case I'm a carrier. LololoooolllllllllllAre you sure I'm not?

Show your math.

[tholdren]

Are you sure I'm not?

Show your math.

Yep

[ChumpDumper]

Yepf:lolldren folds

So easy to shut you down.

[TSA]

You don't know that you weren't. Your tweet yesterday gave no indication of how they were counting ballots.

If vy65 was not counting non-returned ballots, and he was correct about Dems leading by over 600,000, then this tweet that you posted today wouldn't say "-37,402 from yesterday." It would be more like -250,000. Fairly easy math.

I told vy65 yesterday that the numbers he was citing were not up to date and were from they day prior. The tweet I cited was actually up to date at the time. That’s why I told him to check in this morning once the site he linked updated to show yesterday’s count.

[Reck]

1320015304223805445 (https://twitter.com/mcpli/status/1320015304223805445?s=21)
djohn2oo8 Will Hunting

[TSA]

You don't know that you weren't. Your tweet yesterday gave no indication of how they were counting ballots.

If vy65 was not counting non-returned ballots, and he was correct about Dems leading by over 600,000, then this tweet that you posted today wouldn't say "-37,402 from yesterday." It would be more like -250,000. Fairly easy math.

My tweet yesterday literally said mail in and in person counted. Another from yesterday counting only returned by mail and in person.

https://mobile.twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1319803643151982593

[tholdren]

f:lolldren folds

So easy to shut you down.

Lol ChumpDumper completely avoiding reality. Wear that mask covidbro

[vy65]

Why would vy65 be discussing mail-in ballots that haven't been returned?

He responded directly to this tweet I posted specifically discussing returned vote by mail and in person early voting.

https://twitter.com/CottoGottfried/status/1319724547122278402

He’d be talking about mailed but not returned because those are listed on the website he fucking linked you too.

[vy65]

I am almost positive vy65 was not discussing non-returned ballots, I know I wasn't. He can come clear that up though.

:lmao

[djohn2oo8]

I'm not sure where you're getting the 750k number from, Dallas has just under 1.4 million registered voters, so they'd need 1.26 million votes to reach 90%. 90% voter turnout is extremely difficult even in counties that have no voter suppression and are full of middle aged high propensity white voters.

There's even less room for error when you factor in people registered who are inactive voters (I'm still registered in Dallas County even though I haven't lived in Texas in over a year).

Yeah I see they have that amount of registered voters, the 750 K per the state website is the number who voted in 2016
https://www.sos.state.tx.us/elections/historical/dallas.shtml

Regarding that I believe Dallas County will reach or surpass that 750K number before Election Day. Which still of course would mean they need an exceptionally high turnout on Election Day to reach 1.2 mill.

[djohn2oo8]

*number from 2016

[TSA]

He’d be talking about mailed but not returned because those are listed on the website he fucking linked you too.

The website you linked also had vote by mail returned and in person early voting. Both tweets I posted that you responded to were specifically discussing vote by mail returned and in person early voting totals. If you were talking about mailed but not returned it wasn't relevant to what you were responding to.

Anyways D lead down 117,000 in 3 days of VBM/IPEV....D lead in VBM/IPEV needs to be at least 650,000 come election day. Florida looks to be done for Joe.

https://twitter.com/athein1/status/1320064313621532673

[Spurminator]

I told vy65 yesterday that the numbers he was citing were not up to date and were from they day prior. The tweet I cited was actually up to date at the time. That’s why I told him to check in this morning once the site he linked updated to show yesterday’s count.

Right, you thought his numbers were 250,000 votes off because they were a day old, you said nothing about the fact that his numbers included ballots not returned.

I call bullshit on the idea that you knew the VBM in the Corgi tweet didn't include non-returned ballots. There's no context in their tweet that makes that clear, and there's no part of your subsequent argument that makes it clear you knew it.

I really don't care what numbers you use, I just don't understand why you lie so easily.