2022 Draft Pick Watch

[MannyIsGod]

Our own:

RAPTOR expected record
31-51
Tied with SAC for 5th worst record.

Expected draft odds:
42.1% Top 4
10.5% First


Toronto FRP

RAPTOR Expected record
46-36
6th in the East
12th overall

Make the Playoffs, Miss the play in

Pick Conveys at #19

RAPTOR Playoff chance: 86%

So 14% chance it does not convey currently.


Boston FRP


RAPTOR Expected Record
49-33
4th in the East
8th overall

Pick Conveys at #23

Raptor Playoff Chance: 98%

So <1% chance it does not convey.


I'll update this as the season goes on.

[Chinook]

I've been rooting against Detroit so much this season that it feels weird to not care about that anymore. Still rooting against LAL and Boston while rooting for Toronto should be interesting. This is a good thread idea.

[slick'81]

LFG!! To the top 5 of the draft

[MannyIsGod]

Our own:


RAPTOR expected record
32-50
Tied with POR for 7th worst record.
Expected draft odds:
32.0% Top 4
7.5% First




Toronto FRP


RAPTOR Expected record
47-35
6th in the East
11th overall
Make the Playoffs, No play in
Pick Conveys at #20

RAPTOR Playoff chance: 86%
So 14% chance it does not convey currently.


Boston FRP

RAPTOR Expected Record
49-33
4th in the East
8th overall
Pick Conveys at #23
Raptor Playoff Chance: 98%
So <1% chance it does not convey.


Spurs and Bostin wins moved them down. Toronto didn't play, but probably benefited from Atlanta loss?


Spurs tank could really take a hit before the ASB if they play the way they did last night. RAPTOR has the Pelicans a sizable favorite tonight in New Orleans (I assume because of the addition of McCollum and Nance) but I'm not sure I believe it. After that, Chicago is a favorite on Monday but I think that is a good matchup for the Spurs followed by a game against OKC. Of course we could see the usual spurs and the Spurs go 0-3 in that stretch but I don't think its unlikely the Spurs overperform here and go 2-1 or even 3-0.

[BackHome]

Boston was on a run before they got White I think that pick will be around 24 which will suck and we might kick that can to 2028 - I think our pick will be 11 once again which will really suck and then Raptors pick will be 21

[Ocotillo]

I would be surprised to see the Spurs perform again tonight like they did last night. As cold as they were in Cleveland, they were that hot in Atlanta. Plus Atlanta was off. Pels game can go either way but we'll see.

[D-Robinson 50 fan]

I thought this thread was going to be something different than what it turned out to be.

great thread idea, thread starter

[BatManu20]

Boston was on a run before they got White I think that pick will be around 24 which will suck and we might kick that can to 2028 - I think our pick will be 11 once again which will really suck and then Raptors pick will be 21

Would be depressing as hell. If this franchise is dumb enough to win that many meaningless games down the stretch, then they deserve whatever lower ranked prospect they end up with.

[Mr. Body]

Other teams will start to tank, the Spurs won't. This is precarious, as slipping from their current spot has big consequences on the percentages.

[BackHome]

I agree your going to see bottom 11 teams start a very hard tank at this point I know we will probably be out of the top 5. So I am hoping we can stay in the 6 to 8 range and still get a good player. I also think the Celtics with White are going to make a good run and there goes our draft pick will probably punt to year 2028. The Raptors pick I think will be pick 21......

[exstatic]

I would be surprised to see the Spurs perform again tonight like they did last night. As cold as they were in Cleveland, they were that hot in Atlanta. Plus Atlanta was off. Pels game can go either way but we'll see.

Almost every second game of a B2B, we shoot like crap, which destroys spacing and passing lanes.

[MultiTroll]

Our own:


RAPTOR expected record
32-50
Tied with POR for 7th worst record.
Porky i think you meant SPURS expected record.

[bluebellmaniac]

Porky i think you meant SPURS expected record.



RAPTOR:
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/introducing-raptor-our-new-metric-for-the-modern-nba/

[MannyIsGod]

Porky i think you meant SPURS expected record.


Do you love being wrong?

I meant raptor.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-nba-predictions/?ex_cid=rrpromo

[The Truth #6]

I think it’s time we gave Lil Weezy some big minutes to see what he can do. Dejounte needs to sit after the AS game also. Minutes for Romeo? Sure, why not?

[BackHome]

Who is Porky?

[MultiTroll]

Do you love being wrong?

I meant raptor.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-nba-predictions/?ex_cid=rrpromo
Oh ohhh you got me.
Celebrate!
It's a new age acronym for nerd stats.
I was so wrong for thinking Raptor might be the team we traded with for the pick.

[tonight...you]

Oh ohhh you got me.
Celebrate!
It's a new age acronym for nerd stats.
I was so wrong for thinking Raptor might be the team we traded with for the pick.
Yeah. You were.
And then decided to comment on your wrongness.
Nice job!
I enjoyed it.

[MultiTroll]

Yeah. You were.
And then decided to comment on your wrongness.
Nice job!
I enjoyed it.
Keep it going! Keep the SpursTalk tradition of Goytcha.
Record your dance and post if doing one.

[MultiTroll]

Who is Porky?
It's who the mountain goats refer to when seeing Manny hiking in the high country.

[tonight...you]

Keep it going! Keep the SpursTalk tradition of Goytcha.
Record your dance and post if doing one.
Goytcha? Lol. Hey man, you were the one wrong and decided to go public about your wrongness.
Buy the ticket, take the ride.

[MultiTroll]

Goytcha? Lol. Hey man, you were the one wrong and decided to go public about your wrongness.
Buy the ticket, take the ride.
Posted it twice.

[tonight...you]

Posted it twice.
Lol. Ah well, this quibble is trivial.
I enjoy you as a poster and poked you for whatever reason I felt at the moment.

Carry on mon capitan.

[Mr. Body]

Watching NYK at Portland. Portland is in full tank mode. I don't expect any wins from them from here on.

[barakz21]

Can any of the rules people explain it to me? The TOR pick is top 14 protected, so the spurs get it if it’s 15<, while the BOS is too 4 protected, meaning spurs get it if it’s 5<, correct? What is this “pick conveys at # 20, pick conveys at #23”?

[mo7888]

Watching NYK at Portland. Portland is in full tank mode. I don't expect any wins from them from here on.

Yep...they are getting killed and will lose at least the next 5 after this....

[tonight...you]

Can any of the rules people explain it to me? The TOR pick is top 14 protected, so the spurs get it if it’s 15<, while the BOS is too 4 protected, meaning spurs get it if it’s 5<, correct? What is this “pick conveys at # 20, pick conveys at #23”?
You got the gist of it.
If it's top 14 protected, 15 and up is game.
Same for the rest.

[pad300]

Can any of the rules people explain it to me? The TOR pick is top 14 protected, so the spurs get it if it’s 15<, while the BOS is too 4 protected, meaning spurs get it if it’s 5<, correct? What is this “pick conveys at # 20, pick conveys at #23”?

You have the rules about when the picks convey right; what the poster is saying is that currently the pick is projected to be #XX and thus will convey...

[Mr. Body]

Lol, Never mind, NYK wound up losing to Portland. Trailblazers really fought for it.

[Leetonidas]

Knicks got outscored 11 to 35 in the 4th :lol

[BatManu20]

Knicks…. unreal.

[B1gduff]

I can see the Spurs going 2 routes in the upcoming draft.

Route 1:
1st pick (Top 10): draft best Avaialble player
2nd and 3rd pick (15-23): package together to move up.

route 2
1st pick (top 10): best avaialble player
2nd: Top 20: High Risk/High Award pick
3rd: (18-23): Safe pick

[barakz21]

You have the rules about when the picks convey right; what the poster is saying is that currently the pick is projected to be #XX and thus will convey...

Oh!!! I get it.. so if the draft lottery were to be today, TOR pick would be 23 and BOS would be 20 and thus convey. Correct?

[BackHome]

Pretty much...just take a look at Tankathon mock draft that will visually give you a good idea ...right now it has us with a pick at 7,19, and 20. Realistic right now we are on our second win so I think will be picking 8 to 11 and the Raptors pick will be around 20. Now the interesting thing is that I think the Bostons pick will be 23 and I think the Spurs will punt as they have the option to have their 2028 first with out a lot of protection

[slick'81]

Bye bye top 5 pick

[Biggems]

I want PF Drew Timme in the draft. I wanted him with the Detroit pick in the 2nd round. I am not sure he will last until our 2nd rd pick. I know he isn't the most athletic guy out there. However, he has a great skill set, high BBIQ, plays with swagger and toughness, and is a team leader. I think he would fit in great here.

Watching play, he reminds me a lot of Pau Gasol during the Laker years.

[Mr. Body]

I want PF Drew Timme in the draft. I wanted him with the Detroit pick in the 2nd round. I am not sure he will last until our 2nd rd pick. I know he isn't the most athletic guy out there. However, he has a great skill set, high BBIQ, plays with swagger and toughness, and is a team leader. I think he would fit in great here.

Watching play, he reminds me a lot of Pau Gasol during the Laker years.

I don't think Timme is an NBA player. He'll make money overseas.

[exstatic]

Can any of the rules people explain it to me? The TOR pick is top 14 protected, so the spurs get it if it’s 15<, while the BOS is too 4 protected, meaning spurs get it if it’s 5<, correct? What is this “pick conveys at # 20, pick conveys at #23”?

That’s what position they would be at the time this was posted. You’ve got it right. If Toronto makes the playoffs (1-8 after play in), we get their pick. If Boston’s pick is higher than 4, we get it.

[Isitjustme?]

Boston was on a run before they got White I think that pick will be around 24 which will suck and we might kick that can to 2028 - I think our pick will be 11 once again which will really suck and then Raptors pick will be 21

I thought we got both the 2022 1st and a potential swap in 2028. It's one or the other?

[exstatic]

I thought we got both the 2022 1st and a potential swap in 2028. It's one or the other?

It’s both.

[Mr. Body]

That’s what position they would be at the time this was posted. You’ve got it right. If Toronto makes the playoffs (1-8 after play in), we get their pick. If Boston’s pick is higher than 4, we get it.

Slight typo there. If Boston's pick is lower than 4, we get it.

[Thomas82]

Bye bye top 5 pick

That's what it's looking like.

[barakz21]

That’s what position they would be at the time this was posted. You’ve got it right. If Toronto makes the playoffs (1-8 after play in), we get their pick. If Boston’s pick is higher than 4, we get it.

gotcha, thanks for clarifying that!

[MannyIsGod]

Our own:

RAPTOR expected record
33-49
8th worst record.
Expected draft odds:
26.3%Top 4
6% First


Toronto FRP

RAPTOR Expected record
46-36
7th in the East
11th overall
In the play in tournament
Pick Conveys at #18 assuming they win 1 game in play in tournament


RAPTOR Playoff chance: 86%
So 14% chance it does not convey currently.


Boston FRP

RAPTOR Expected Record
49-33
4th in the East
8th overall
Pick Conveys at #23
Raptor Playoff Chance: 99%
So <1% chance it does not convey.


So our playoff chances have essentially doubled with the last two wins. Its still an outlier scenario at 7% but with the play in being so close and the young group being hungry, I definitely think the tank is on life support. This team isn't going to mail it in, and DJM is playing at an exceptional level. The teams we beat aren't world beaters, but it was a b2b on the road and don't be surprised if these guys learn a few things from it and actually play better going forward. They could just as easily play just as poor as the rest of the low points of this season again, FWIW.

Toronto lost a game and dropped in the standings a bit, but Atlanta taking 2 Ls was probably good for them as well so not much change there. Them dropping to a play in spot would be good for the pick status, but only if they manage to win a game and actually make the playoffs.

Boston looks the best they have all year and continues to shine. Derrick was a little worse in game 2, but still looks to be a pretty easy fit with them. Boston's shot selection is utter trash, so we'll see if they can maintain this level of play.

[John B]

^nice thread

I think the last two victories, our players rallied after losing a teammate. I like watching them win, but they should fall back to earth losing to Bulls, Heat, Grizzlies and Wizards, and even Kings. Kings are winning with Sabonis and Co. Also Kings, immediately prior to meeting Spurs, will be facing good teams and probably lose, so yup they could take it on us at their home, L. I think Spurs will have worst record than Kings by early March. Tank for Chet baby!

[BG_Spurs_Fan]

The Spurs actually have quite a lot of winnable games left. Blazers 3 times, OKC twice, Pacers, Rockets, Washington... I could see them having a .500 win % from now until the end of the season, or close to it.

There's no chance they end up with a worse record than OKC, Houston, Detroit, Orlando and Indiana. Add Blazers probably as they begin tanking hard, unless it's the Lakers they're playing. Spurs would likely have the 7th to 9th best lottery odds. Hopefully they get some luck with the ping pong balls.

At this point it's not unreasonable to root for them to get to the play in and have a chance to beat the Lakers. Would be epic. Besides, after the top 4 or 5 (if Shaedon Sharpe is in) from the draft there's not too much between the players projected from 6 to 12.

[MannyIsGod]

^nice thread

I think the last two victories, our players rallied after losing a teammate. I like watching them win, but they should fall back to earth losing to Bulls, Heat, Grizzlies and Wizards, and even Kings. Kings are winning with Sabonis and Co. Also Kings, immediately prior to meeting Spurs, will be facing good teams and probably lose, so yup they could take it on us at their home, L. I think Spurs will have worst record than Kings by early March. Tank for Chet baby!

I think they have a good shot at beating the Bulls tonight. I wouldn't say they are favored, but I do think they are a bit better off than RAPTOR does for this game who basically says the Bulls are a 2:1 favorite. I would say its a 3:2 situation. After that the Spurs are STRONG favorites in the next two games. If the Spurs win tonight they could easily go on a 5 game RRT win steak which would actually be pretty epic for this young crew. I'm kinda rooting for it.

Tonight will be tough though.

[MannyIsGod]

Oh I just saw Lavine is out for tonight. I definitely think tonight is a pick em if the Bulls don't have Lavine.

[John B]

I think they have a good shot at beating the Bulls tonight. I wouldn't say they are favored, but I do think they are a bit better off than RAPTOR does for this game who basically says the Bulls are a 2:1 favorite. I would say its a 3:2 situation. After that the Spurs are STRONG favorites in the next two games. If the Spurs win tonight they could easily go on a 5 game RRT win steak which would actually be pretty epic for this young crew. I'm kinda rooting for it.

Tonight will be tough though.

Agree. I didn’t see the Bulls’ injury prior.

[Mr. Body]

OKC beat a hapless NYK, Portland beat Milwaukee in MIL, Pelicans slaughtered the Raptors.

[pookenstein]

At last, back on the losing side.

[CGD]

^ silver linings. Also lots of other good game outcomes for us:

- clips, Portland, Nola all winning
- Toronto lost

[Drewlius]

^ silver linings. Also lots of other good game outcomes for us:

- clips, Portland, Nola all winning
- Toronto lost

How is Toronto losing a silver lining? Pretty sure we need them to keep winning so they stay outside of the Top 14 picks.

[exstatic]

How is Toronto losing a silver lining? Pretty sure we need them to keep winning so they stay outside of the Top 14 picks.

They’re at 18, so they’re still outside.

[MannyIsGod]

The best outcome for Toronto would be to finish with the worst record in the playoffs. That's going to be extra stressful since it involves the playin game. Least stressful outcome is the 6th seed.

[BG_Spurs_Fan]

How is Toronto losing a silver lining? Pretty sure we need them to keep winning so they stay outside of the Top 14 picks.

Technically the best case scenario is Toronto losing a lot, ending up as a low seed in the play in and winning there to get to the playoffs. The more they win the worse the pick becomes.

Sometimes there are games where I don't know which team to root for. One thing is for certain though - Boston losing is good. Two things - Lakers losing is good regardless.

[MannyIsGod]

Our own:


RAPTOR expected record
32-50
7th worst record.
Expected draft odds:
32%Top 4
7.5% First



Toronto FRP


RAPTOR Expected record
45-37
7th in the East
11th overall
In the play in tournament
Pick Conveys at #18 assuming play in goes chalk.


RAPTOR Playoff chance: 86%
So 14% chance it does not convey currently.




Boston FRP


RAPTOR Expected Record
49-33
4th in the East
8th overall
Pick Conveys at #23
Raptor Playoff Chance: 99%
So <1% chance it does not convey.



Spurs very small playoff chances took a big hit. A combination of other weak teams winning and us not winning seems to move the needle a few percentage points either way. OKC up next. Spurs 2:1 favorite according to RAPTOR. A loss here would help the tank. I find it hard to root for the tank, but knowing the losses help the tank does help with the losing from a fan perspective. Still, I can't root for these young guys to lose.

[Dex]

1493372308253290502

Posted in the other Pop thread, but feel like it belongs here too.

Could just be posturing, but more likely that Pop isn't going out there trying to throw games.

[couchman]

Pop isn’t trying to throw games but he isn’t coaching to win like a playoff game either.
It took forever last night to adjust and start doubling DDR, for example.
And we’re playing guys like Collins and Primo who are struggling a bit but important for our future.
I hope this approach continues: have the players play to win, coach hard on the fundamentals, and play our future guys a lot

[MannyIsGod]

Pop isn’t trying to throw games but he isn’t coaching to win like a playoff game either.
It took forever last night to adjust and start doubling DDR, for example.
And we’re playing guys like Collins and Primo who are struggling a bit but important for our future.
I hope this approach continues: have the players play to win, coach hard on the fundamentals, and play our future guys a lot

Yeah this is definitely true. He tried Primo on DeMar for several possessions and that is definitely not something he would have done if he was trying to win at all costs. But I like that!

[Mr. Body]

Spurs' position feels precarious. Pacers and Sacramento look tank-ready. The real bother is previous playoff teams like the Knicks, Hawks, and Lakers are crashing.

[John B]

1493372308253290502

Posted in the other Pop thread, but feel like it belongs here too.

Could just be posturing, but more likely that Pop isn't going out there trying to throw games.

Of course he would say that, likewise his players. But I’m sure they already penciled in which game they’re going to lose without being too obvious. He’s going to teach along the way, and maybe win it if too close. But I’m sure he’s thinking about getting higher in the draft. It’s more irresponsible not to.

[duncan2150]

https://www.tankathon.com/remaining_schedule_strength

One interesting thing is the remaining schedule :

Toronto have the 8th easiest remaining schedule wich is good
Boston the 11 th easiest wich is not good
SA the 12.

On another note , Portland have the 4th and they will face the Spurs 3 times. NO have a strong schedule, the 5th strongest in the NBA and Sac the 6th strongest.

[John B]

^ nice

[Ignazzz]

Toronto can easy Lost play in. Nothing to be happy

[Mr. Body]

https://www.tankathon.com/remaining_schedule_strength

One interesting thing is the remaining schedule :

Toronto have the 8th easiest remaining schedule wich is good
Boston the 11 th easiest wich is not good
SA the 12.

On another note , Portland have the 4th and they will face the Spurs 3 times. NO have a strong schedule, the 5th strongest in the NBA and Sac the 6th strongest.

The issue isn't so much the teams with worse records but those with slightly better records who are falling.

[exstatic]

Spurs' position feels precarious. Pacers and Sacramento look tank-ready. The real bother is previous playoff teams like the Knicks, Hawks, and Lakers are crashing.

Pacers and Sacramento were both buyers at the deadline, albeit from each other, but you don’t buy if you’re in an all out tank. The other three will be hard pressed to lose enough to catch us.

[exstatic]

Toronto can easy Lost play in. Nothing to be happy

If they are 7 or 8, they have to lose two games to be eliminated. If they are 9 or 10, they have to win two games to make the playoffs. Only one of 7,8 can be eliminated. Only one of 9,10 can play in.

My favorite scenario is that they are 8th, but beat 7, who then beats the 9/10 winner. They still finish with the worst EC record, so we get the best EC non lottery pick, but don’t have to stress over the second play in round.

[RC_Drunkford]

Pop is right. I'm still confident he will do his usual sabotagevich to make sure the team loses a few more games as well as rest some players. Pop is great at sabotaging his own team and it actually makes sense now. What I'm worried about are all those other teams embracing the tank. Wizards and Blazers could still fall, so could the Knicks. Spurs need to finish in the bottom 7 at least.

[BatManu20]

Yea we really need that Raptors pick to convey. Don’t wanna go into next season worried all year about them making the play-in. Otherwise that draft pick turns into a 2nd rounder in 2024 and that would suck ass.

[Mr. Body]

Boston crushing Philly in the first half away. Don't even think it's Derrick White; the Celtics are playing very well and the Sixers look stinky.

[Mr. Body]

Sixers down by 43 after 3 periods. Imagine wanting to contend for a championship and laying this turd.

[XDT76]

If they are 7 or 8, they have to lose two games to be eliminated. If they are 9 or 10, they have to win two games to make the playoffs. Only one of 7,8 can be eliminated. Only one of 9,10 can play in.

My favorite scenario is that they are 8th, but beat 7, who then beats the 9/10 winner. They still finish with the worst EC record, so we get the best EC non lottery pick, but don’t have to stress over the second play in round.


Don't think it work that way, whoever win the 7/8 play-in will be 7th seed.

[BatManu20]

Yea Boston was already on a 7-Game win streak. But Derrick’s definitely made them better not only defensively, but with the flow and ball movement on their offense. He’s fit in seamlessly with them. If his 3-point shot starts falling, he is going to be a damn good pickup for them.

[scott]

Toronto finishing 7th, then still losing the play-in, then getting getting drawn for a Top 4 pick, will be the ultimate "jump out the window" moment this summer.

[exstatic]

Don't think it work that way, whoever win the 7/8 play-in will be 7th seed.

Maybe, but the draft is based STRICTLY on records. That’s why there are two sets of tiebreakers, playoff, and draft. I remember clearly losing a complicated playoff tiebreaker to Portland, and then losing a coin flip for draft position. If it were seed based, we would have gotten the better pick.

[XDT76]

Maybe, but the draft is based STRICTLY on records. That’s why there are two sets of tiebreakers, playoff, and draft. I remember clearly losing a complicated playoff tiebreaker to Portland, and then losing a coin flip for draft position. If it were seed based, we would have gotten the better pick.

I went back to check at the NBA, the play-in result only affects the draft when teams drop out of or hop into the playoff. The pick 1 to 14 will be the 14 teams that does not make play-off and pick 15 to 30 are based on the 16 teams that make the play-off after play-in based on their record. So you are right that 8th placing will pick before the 7th placing regardless of the play-in result if both of them make it to the play-off.

[CGD]

I went back to check at the NBA, the play-in result only affects the draft when teams drop out of or hop into the playoff. The pick 1 to 14 will be the 14 teams that does not make play-off and pick 15 to 30 are based on the 16 teams that make the play-off after play-in based on their record. So you are right that 8th placing will pick before the 7th placing regardless of the play-in result if both of them make it to the play-off.

Thanks for explanation. Perfection would be that TOR finishes 8th in east, and 16th among all teams (but seems unlikely since West is down this year). We’d have 15th pick.

[emanueldavidginobili]

Sucks this Boston pick can easily end up being 25-27. They are only 3.5 games behind the number 1 seed in the East now and going for 10 straight tonight and three straight wins by 30 plus all on the road.

[exstatic]

Sucks this Boston pick can easily end up being 25-27. They are only 3.5 games behind the number 1 seed in the East now and going for 10 straight tonight and three straight wins by 30 plus all on the road.

That pick was never going to be a great one. The value, as I saw it, was Langford maybe being something, and the 2028 swap, with maybe a small asset coming back from a Richardson trade.

I remember a MLB trade in 1987. The Braves traded a decent pitcher to the Tigers, Doyle Alexander. He came in and went 9-0, and the Tigers won the Division on the last day of the season. They lost the trade, though. The prospect that went the other way was a minor leaguer by the name of John Smoltz.

The short term beneficiary of a trade doesn’t always win the long term.

[TD 21]

That pick was never going to be a great one. The value, as I saw it, was Langford maybe being something, and the 2028 swap, with maybe a small asset coming back from a Richardson trade.

It could be, but the pick needs to end up around 20ish, making it easier to utilize it in tandem/package with other pick(s)/player(s) to manipulate the draft board.

It also wouldn't hurt if Langford could develop into a rotation player.

[Mr. Body]

That pick was never going to be a great one. The value, as I saw it, was Langford maybe being something, and the 2028 swap, with maybe a small asset coming back from a Richardson trade.

I remember a MLB trade in 1987. The Braves traded a decent pitcher to the Tigers, Doyle Alexander. He came in and went 9-0, and the Tigers won the Division on the last day of the season. They lost the trade, though. The prospect that went the other way was a minor leaguer by the name of John Smoltz.

The short term beneficiary of a trade doesn’t always win the long term.

The Spurs also kinda wanted to get off White's salary, I think.

[Mr. Body]

Good results for the Spurs tonight, other than the Spurs beating OKC:

Portland has been playing well and beat the Grizzlies away, Spur still have two more losses.

Indiana beat the Wizards, although it's unlikely the Spurs catch up on four losses.

Raptors pulled out of their skid.

Celtics had their bubble burst by Detroit of all teams.

The one bad part is New York is dropping like a stone and threatens to keep losing. Rose comes back next week, but they stink.

[slick'81]

Good results for the Spurs tonight, other than the Spurs beating OKC:

Portland has been playing well and beat the Grizzlies away, Spur still have two more losses.

Indiana beat the Wizards, although it's unlikely the Spurs catch up on four losses.

Raptors pulled out of their skid.

Celtics had their bubble burst by Detroit of all teams.

The one bad part is New York is dropping like a stone and threatens to keep losing. Rose comes back next week, but they stink.


spurs gonna have to work hard to stay in that top8

[PhantomDashCam]

1494162344309452804

And this guy is still wearing low cut shoes...

[mo7888]

1494162344309452804

And this guy is still wearing low cut shoes...

They are going for x-rays nows... potentially another team well have to work at to stay behind them in the standings...

[RC_Drunkford]

Told y'all the Lakers will drop. As will the Blazers, Knicks and Wizards. Spurs might come up with the 12th pick again when all is said and done

[duncan2150]

Told y'all the Lakers will drop. As will the Blazers, Knicks and Wizards. Spurs might come up with the 12th pick again when all is said and done


They will not drop behind us imo, they manage to win yesterday and they are nearly 5 games ahead of us. Still a lot of games but i'm more worried about the Wizz and the Knicks like ypu said, i'm not sold on Portland too.

With 23 games remaining Spurs will need to win something like 12-15 games to be in the top 10 of the conference imo,

[CGD]

They are going for x-rays nows... potentially another team well have to work at to stay behind them in the standings...

Poor guy. Between all the injuries and so-so meaningful performances, I wonder if we won’t be looking back at this guy’s career as a “what could have been” one.

People talk a lot of garbage about KAT, but I’m not convinced this guy I had had that much of a better career so far.

[John B]

spurs gonna have to work hard to stay in that top8

They had a chance to blow it at the 4th last night. Seriously, Pop could teach the 1st 3 quarters and should manage to lose in the 4th and get to top 5 picks. Pick a battle. It’s good for the long term.

[MannyIsGod]

Our pick:
RAPTOR expected record
33-49
7th worst record.
Expected draft odds:
32%Top 4
7.5% First


Toronto FRP

RAPTOR Expected record
46-36
7th in the East
11th overall
In the play in tournament
Pick Conveys at #18 assuming play in goes chalk.
RAPTOR Playoff chance: 82%
So 18% chance it does not convey currently.


Boston FRP

RAPTOR Expected Record
49-33
4th in the East
8th overall
Pick Conveys at #23
Raptor Playoff Chance: 99%
So <1% chance it does not convey.



Not much changed since the last outlook. Our expected record is one win worse, Toronto one win better, percentages about the same all around.

[Biggems]

I understand why we are keeping up with Toronto and Boston, but why Portland? Does it have to do with possible playoff seedings?

Also, I know the question has been asked and answered, but I cannot find the thread it was in....If the Raptors are the 8th seed before the play-in game, does that guarantee we keep their pick or do we have to hope they win the play-in game?

[talkspurs]

I understand why we are keeping up with Toronto and Boston, but why Portland? Does it have to do with possible playoff seedings?

Also, I know the question has been asked and answered, but I cannot find the thread it was in....If the Raptors are the 8th seed before the play-in game, does that guarantee we keep their pick or do we have to hope they win the play-in game?

Tor will have to make the actual PO not just the play in for their pick to transfer to us.

Dont see much on portland unless they are talking about teams that could be tanking and then that I would say is more we dont want to pass them.

[Biggems]

My ideal homer scenario is Toronto ends up with the 15 worst record in the Association. So we get that pick. Boston misses the playoffs and ends up 14, and we get that pick.

As for us, we get one of two scenarios. Either we get the 10th seed, win the play-in and then make some serious playoff noise and make it at least to the Conference Finals (the true homer in me), or we get the record for Pop and then shit the bed, not intentionally, the rest of the way and end up with a top 10, if not top 5 pick.

[exstatic]

I understand why we are keeping up with Toronto and Boston, but why Portland? Does it have to do with possible playoff seedings?

Also, I know the question has been asked and answered, but I cannot find the thread it was in....If the Raptors are the 8th seed before the play-in game, does that guarantee we keep their pick or do we have to hope they win the play-in game?

They have to make the playoffs for us to get the Toronto pick. There are 4 play in teams. 7 and 8 play. 9 and 10 play. Winner of 7 and 8 is in the playoffs. Loser plays the winner of 9/10 for the final playoff spot.

[Biggems]

They have to make the playoffs for us to get the Toronto pick. There are 4 play in teams. 7 and 8 play. 9 and 10 play. Winner of 7 and 8 is in the playoffs. Loser plays the winner of 9/10 for the final playoff spot.

Ok, ty. That clears up my confusion. We still want Toronto to be the worst playoff team record wise. We still want Boston to be a lottery team. This assures us of at least 2 top 15 picks. Then, it is just up to whatever we do.

I am glad the NBA isn't like the NFL, where the playoff teams are seeded as they are eliminated. We can end up the 8 seed, get a pick in the mid teens, and still win a Championship.

After all the crap the last few years, to get 14, 15, 16, and the O'Brian would be absolutely awesome. Oh, what a pipe dream.

[exstatic]

Ok, ty. That clears up my confusion. We still want Toronto to be the worst playoff team record wise. We still want Boston to be a lottery team. This assures us of at least 2 top 15 picks. Then, it is just up to whatever we do.

I am glad the NBA isn't like the NFL, where the playoff teams are seeded as they are eliminated. We can end up the 8 seed, get a pick in the mid teens, and still win a Championship.

After all the crap the last few years, to get 14, 15, 16, and the O'Brian would be absolutely awesome. Oh, what a pipe dream.

There are too many bad teams in the West for Toronto to be the worst non lottery team. Best case is probably pick 17. Boston absolutely will not be in the lottery, and it’s not important this year. Hopefully, their current team ends this cycle before 2028, and we are able to use that pick swap then.

[talkspurs]

Ok, ty. That clears up my confusion. We still want Toronto to be the worst playoff team record wise. We still want Boston to be a lottery team. This assures us of at least 2 top 15 picks. Then, it is just up to whatever we do.

I am glad the NBA isn't like the NFL, where the playoff teams are seeded as they are eliminated. We can end up the 8 seed, get a pick in the mid teens, and still win a Championship.

After all the crap the last few years, to get 14, 15, 16, and the O'Brian would be absolutely awesome. Oh, what a pipe dream.

Boston also can not move up due to lottery. If they move up to 1-4 then they keep the pick. Should be a small chance with them moving up since if they dont make the PO they should just barley not make it.

[Kurik]

Looks like the Cavs have been struggling a little including a loss to the Pistons tonight. Should give the Raptors a chance to get to the 6th seed while the Nets continue to struggle.

[Ignazzz]

splendid news

[exstatic]

splendid news

Actually not. Better if the Raps are 7 or 8.

[duncan2150]

The hope for the spurs is the Pelicans. The Kings and Blazers will not win too much to end the season.

[Seventyniner]

Actually not. Better if the Raps are 7 or 8.

I'd rather the Raps finish 6th so I don't have to sweat out them potentially losing two play-in games. Having the pick be 2 or 3 slots lower is worth avoiding that risk imo.

[Spursfanfromafar]

I'd rather the Raps finish 6th so I don't have to sweat out them potentially losing two play-in games. Having the pick be 2 or 3 slots lower is worth avoiding that risk imo.

Yep. Best for the Raps to finish the top 6 to assure a pick for the Spurs that is not conveyed to next year.

[Mr. Body]

The hope for the spurs is the Pelicans. The Kings and Blazers will not win too much to end the season.

I feel like the Spurs are cemented as far as their best case scenario goes. The problem is the Knicks and Atlanta losing so much.

[exstatic]

I feel like the Spurs are cemented as far as their best case scenario goes. The problem is the Knicks and Atlanta losing so much.

The problem is,the rest of our schedule is kind of cake walk-y. I’m almost certain that we will make the play in. We have Portland 3 more times, and they’re full on in tank mode. Another Houston game, another Pelicans game, couple with the Timberwolves, Hornets, and they’re kind of in free fall. Lakers without AD most likely.

[Mr. Body]

The problem is,the rest of our schedule is kind of cake walk-y. I’m almost certain that we will make the play in. We have Portland 3 more times, and they’re full on in tank mode. Another Houston game, another Pelicans game, couple with the Timberwolves, Hornets, and they’re kind of in free fall. Lakers without AD most likely.

I wouldn't be surprised at all. The team won't tank and everyone else is.

[PhantomDashCam]

1497269761234845707

[Kurik]

Hornets blowing out the Raptors isn’t the best sign for the potential play-in matchup.

[Seventyniner]

Hornets blowing out the Raptors isn’t the best sign for the potential play-in matchup.

At the rate things are going, instead of the Spurs getting 7/17/21 in the draft they'll end up with only 12 and 24.

[BatManu20]

At the rate things are going, instead of the Spurs getting 7/17/21 in the draft they'll end up with only 12 and 24.

Would be worst case scenario. That would really suck tbh. Spurs are simply too proud to tank and most the other teams are already starting to.

[BG_Spurs_Fan]

At the rate things are going, instead of the Spurs getting 7/17/21 in the draft they'll end up with only 12 and 24.

I'd be totally fine with this. This draft appears to be very weak after pick 4 or 5. Players between 5 and 14 are pretty equal and pretty meh. I'd expect them to shop the pick aggressively.

It'd be nervous with regards to getting Toronto's pick next year but a '23 pick would be way more valuable than another first this year.

[duncan2150]

The hope for the spurs is the Pelicans. The Kings and Blazers will not win too much to end the season.


The hope is there.

[duncan2150]

Boston- 22 games left- 6th strongest remaining schedule
Toronto-23 games left- 24 th strongest schedule
San Antonio-21 games left-19th strongest schedule ( Sacramento with the 10th strongest schedule/NO with the 2Oth/Portland the 30th)

The next six games will be very important imo for the Spurs pick- @Memphis/Sacramento/@Charlotte/Lakers/Toronto/Utah.

[BackHome]

At the rate things are going, instead of the Spurs getting 7/17/21 in the draft they'll end up with only 12 and 24.

That would be terrible for our future

[exstatic]

That would be terrible for our future

Actually, it would be better to defer Torontos pick to next year. It’s the so-called double draft, where the last one and done class combines with the first new HS draft class.

[John B]

I like the 2nd team showing up last night and making it close, but L to 1st placer in the East.

[Mr. Body]

Im good with Toronto's pick conferring next year. The more I look at it, the more this year's draft looks prety bad to me.

[mystargtr34]

If the Toronto pick does not convey this season and therefore goes to next season, what are the restrictions on if? Is it still lottery protected? What if Toronto misses the playoffs next season, do we just lose the pick altogether?

[exstatic]

If the Toronto pick does not convey this season and therefore goes to next season, what are the restrictions on if? Is it still lottery protected? What if Toronto misses the playoffs next season, do we just lose the pick altogether?

The protection is 1-13 next year, so they could just slip into the lottery with the best record of the 14 teams who don’t make the playoffs. I don’t necessarily want the pick to not convey this year, I was just pointing out that it wouldn’t be the end of the world if it didn’t.

[duncan2150]

Boston L @Indiana tonight, they lose 2 of their last 3 games againt Detroit and Indiana. Not bad.

[Chinook]

Actually, it would be better to defer Torontos pick to next year. It’s the so-called double draft, where the last one and done class combines with the first new HS draft class.

Nah. That ended up not being a thing. The one-and-done rule is still there.

https://www.saturdaydownsouth.com/sec-football/one-and-done-rule-ending-dont-count-on-it-according-to-espns-adrian-wojnarowski/

It says it may not be until 2025 -- if ever -- that it changes. Of course, that's already a decent draft year for the Spurs, given they already have four picks that year.

The only real benefit that I can see from not getting Toronto's pick is that it gives them "room" to get another first this upcoming draft. We don't know yet if the Spurs are going to keep Poeltl or even Murray. They might want to trade one of them for a known prospect this summer. That's much harder to see if they are already drafting four guys. Yes, the Spurs could include one of their picks in the deal, like trading Murray at 19 to NYK for a top-four pick or something, but I'd rather them not trade anybody else just to move up, especially not one of those two.

[spurs1990]

Not sure if anyone is noticing but the lakers are free falling. Getting torn by New Orleans at home. They or whom ever has their pick could be another slot to bump San Antonio down

[exstatic]

Not sure if anyone is noticing but the lakers are free falling. Getting torn by New Orleans at home. They or whom ever has their pick could be another slot to bump San Antonio down

They’re fucked. AD is supposed to be out for a while, and LeBron, apparently, cannot even take a team to the playoffs any more.

[objective]

I'm with those that are okay with the Toronto pick conveying next year, despite how funny it might be to see Toronto keep their current pick and gain the Detroit second.

I really don't care for this draft, and there isn't even the old reliable strategy of draft and stashing a euro with one of the 3 firsts we as a good choice considering people like Chad Ford are calling it the worst international class in over a decade. I don't remember his exact words from his podcast recently about it but it might have even been 20 years.

So a rollover would be fine by me. A 2023 pick #22 might be better than a 2022 pick #16.

[Allan Rowe vs Wade]

Gonna suck when the lakers end up getting a better pick than us

[Mr. Body]

Gonna suck when the lakers end up getting a better pick than us

They don't own their own pick this year.

[Mr. Body]

Pelicans with McCollum, Ingram, Big V and some good role players are not a shitty team at all. Westbrook and LeBron were twin turnover factories out there. They're a mess, but I still think they get a play-in.

Pacers beat the Celtics, but they're still a few behind in the win column and likely won't drop. The real risk factors are those behind the Spurs and tumbling.

[duncan2150]

Pelicans with McCollum, Ingram, Big V and some good role players are not a shitty team at all. Westbrook and LeBron were twin turnover factories out there. They're a mess, but I still think they get a play-in.

Pacers beat the Celtics, but they're still a few behind in the win column and likely won't drop. The real risk factors are those behind the Spurs and tumbling.


I also think the Lakers will make the play in.

Agreed about teams like Blazers( pretty sure they will be behind us), Knicks and Wizards ( 4 games ahead of us). If the Spurs don't make the play in, they will have a top 10 pick so it's a good thing that NO beat the Lakers.

NO is the team to watch imo.

[ragas]

Spurs will end up where the picked the last 2 years, around 9-11 range.

[Mr. Body]

Yeah, haven't really looked at the remaining schedule until now. Unlike last year, which seemed brutal, the remainder is really easy, including three against the Trailblazers. I'd be stunned if the Spurs don't either 1) make the play-in, or 2) drop to the last third of the lottery.

[duncan2150]

Yeah, haven't really looked at the remaining schedule until now. Unlike last year, which seemed brutal, the remainder is really easy, including three against the Trailblazers. I'd be stunned if the Spurs don't either 1) make the play-in, or 2) drop to the last third of the lottery.

The next five games will give us some idea. For the play in i'm not sure, they have the same kind of schedule with the Pels ( 19 th strongest and 21th strongest for the Pels) so they can miss it.

Spurs and Pels will also match up two time.

[buttsR4rebounding]

Gonna suck when the lakers end up getting a better pick than us

Not only do the Lakers not have their first round pick this year the Spurs own the Lakers 2nd round pick. It could end up in the 30s if they keep this up.

[spurs1990]

I didn't think it was possible but LA is in worse shape than the 2012-2013 all-star team with Nash and a semi-prime Dwight.
I'd imagine James will be shutting it down with a sore knee in the next couple weeks.

In the their last 22 games, I count 4 games they'd be favor to win - Washington x2, Minnesota, OKC. I'd imagine San Antonio will beat them a week from today but maybe Pop will be charitable.

I'm not ashamed to admit I'm taking extreme pleasure in their catapult to the bottom of the standings. Except unlike 2005 and 2014-2017, there's no top 10 pick to lessen the blow from a disaster of a season. It's pretty epic for Lakers haters

[FutureMan]

Wait… is LA’s pick protected next year? Tankathon lists it as a top 10 protected pick. If so, that would be a disaster for the Spurs IMO

[Kevin]

I didn't think it was possible but LA is in worse shape than the 2012-2013 all-star team with Nash and a semi-prime Dwight.
I'd imagine James will be shutting it down with a sore knee in the next couple weeks.

In the their last 22 games, I count 4 games they'd be favor to win - Washington x2, Minnesota, OKC. I'd imagine San Antonio will beat them a week from today but maybe Pop will be charitable.

I'm not ashamed to admit I'm taking extreme pleasure in their catapult to the bottom of the standings. Except unlike 2005 and 2014-2017, there's no top 10 pick to lessen the blow from a disaster of a season. It's pretty epic for Lakers haters

If Lebron wants out this summer they should trade him away for assets. Ride it one more year with the horrible Westbrook contract and enter 2023 free agency with a ton of cap space and AD to draw free agents. Its the Lakers and players always want to sign with them so it will all probably work out for them.

[exstatic]

Gonna suck when the lakers end up getting a better pick than us

Their pick conveys to New Orleans if it falls 1-10 and to Memphis if it falls 11-30. Jokes on them.

[exstatic]

Wait… is LA’s pick protected next year? Tankathon lists it as a top 10 protected pick. If so, that would be a disaster for the Spurs IMO

We don’t have a Lakers first rounder, this year, next, or ever.

[slick'81]

Kiss the top 10 goodbye

[Mr. Body]

Kiss the top 10 goodbye

It's not a huge surprise. The Spurs' point differential is much better than their record indicates.

[MannyIsGod]

Our pick:
RAPTOR expected record
34-48
Tied 9th worst record with Lakers
Expected draft odds:
20.2% Top 4
4.5% First
50.7% 9th
29.1% pick is worse than 9th


Toronto FRP

RAPTOR Expected record
45-37
7th in the East
13th overall
In the play in tournament
Pick Conveys at #18 assuming play in goes chalk.
RAPTOR Playoff chance: 73%
So 27% chance it does not convey currently.


Boston FRP

RAPTOR Expected Record
49-33
3rd in the East
9th overall
Pick Conveys at #22
Raptor Playoff Chance: 99%
So <1% chance it does not convey.


Raptors playoff chances have taken a substantial hit. Obviously still overwhelming favorites, but a ~10% drop is significant. That 10% drop does equal a pick that is 2 picks earlier, so the increased risk does come with a slight value increase.

Our playoff odds have remained about the same at 7% but the team is playing as well as they have at any point this season and I expect that with a lot of winnable games coming up and the Lakers in free fall these odds will likely increase. The tank is on life support if not fully dead at the moment.

[KingKev]

Our pick:
RAPTOR expected record
34-48
Tied 9th worst record with Lakers
Expected draft odds:
20.2% Top 4
4.5% First
50.7% 9th
29.1% pick is worse than 9th



Toronto FRP

RAPTOR Expected record
45-37
7th in the East
13th overall
In the play in tournament
Pick Conveys at #18 assuming play in goes chalk.
RAPTOR Playoff chance: 73%
So 27% chance it does not convey currently.


Boston FRP

RAPTOR Expected Record
49-33
3rd in the East
9th overall
Pick Conveys at #22
Raptor Playoff Chance: 99%
So <1% chance it does not convey.


Raptors playoff chances have taken a substantial hit. Obviously still overwhelming favorites, but a ~10% drop is significant. That 10% drop does equal a pick that is 2 picks earlier, so the increased risk does come with a slight value increase.

Our playoff odds have remained about the same at 7% but the team is playing as well as they have at any point this season and I expect that with a lot of winnable games coming up and the Lakers in free fall these odds will likely increase. The tank is on life support if not fully dead at the moment.


Haven’t looked into any of the math behind this but surely the odds take into account some form
of momentum and the remaining schedule?

[MannyIsGod]

Haven’t looked into any of the math behind this but surely the odds take into account some form
of momentum and the remaining schedule?

The model runs a monte carlo simulation of all the remaining games with the odds their system uses based on the players on the team (accounts for injuries as of today). The strength of your team is based on the strength of individual players based on stats up to this point in the year. If players overperform their previous stats and stature in the model, then you're likely to overperform the models expectations. Given how well Lonnie and Devin have played since the deadline, I'm pretty sure this is likely for the Spurs. Even if they just perform to the same level they have all year then the Spurs will still go close to .500 the rest of the way. One weak point is that these models are slow to catch onto trends so things like the Spurs playing well and the Lakers playing poorly aren't fully realized into the model.

[exstatic]

It's not a huge surprise. The Spurs' point differential is much better than their record indicates.

1498393949911793664

[MannyIsGod]

The Spurs point differential does indicate they are a better team than their record, but outliers happen. There is a place in the distribution where you underperform the PD just like there's a place where you do the opposite. Spurs have also just had trouble beating teams in the fourth which is likely due to inexperience (although I think Pop playes a fairly large role in this as well - he is NOT a good fourth quarter coach anymore) so this likely makes them more prone to underperform their PD.

[spurs1990]

Our pick:

Toronto FRP

RAPTOR Expected record
45-37
7th in the East
13th overall
In the play in tournament
Pick Conveys at #18 assuming play in goes chalk.
RAPTOR Playoff chance: 73%
So 27% chance it does not convey currently.

Raptors playoff chances have taken a substantial hit. Obviously still overwhelming favorites, but a ~10% drop is significant. That 10% drop does equal a pick that is 2 picks earlier, so the increased risk does come with a slight value increase.



The play-in confuses the hell out of me in terms of understanding draft slotting. This Raptors pick is 1-14 protected, but does that mean if Raptors get a play-in slot of 9th or 10th, and make the playoffs, do they get bumped down in draft order (below 14), and Spurs get that pick?

If not, if they get the 10th seed, which is currently the 13th worst record, they keep the 1st and make the playoffs. That would suck bigtime.

[MannyIsGod]

The play-in confuses the hell out of me in terms of understanding draft slotting. This Raptors pick is 1-14 protected, but does that mean if Raptors get a play-in slot of 9th or 10th, and make the playoffs, do they get bumped down in draft order (below 14), and Spurs get that pick?

If not, if they get the 10th seed, which is currently the 13th worst record, they keep the 1st and make the playoffs. That would suck bigtime.

If the Raptors make the playoffs, whether they are the 8th, 9th, or 10th, position recordwise it won't matter, the pick will convey. The best pick we can get from them is going to be the 15th. If the Raptors are the 7th or 8th seed, but fail in the play in, then we won't get their pick and they will have a top 14 pick. Teams that make the playoffs pick 15-30 based on their records. Teams that do not make the playoffs pick 1-14 based on the lottery whose odds are based on their record. No team who makes the playoffs can get a pick before a team who does not make the playoffs regardless of their record.

Does that make it clear?

[KingKev]

The model runs a monte carlo simulation of all the remaining games with the odds their system uses based on the players on the team (accounts for injuries as of today). The strength of your team is based on the strength of individual players based on stats up to this point in the year. If players overperform their previous stats and stature in the model, then you're likely to overperform the models expectations. Given how well Lonnie and Devin have played since the deadline, I'm pretty sure this is likely for the Spurs. Even if they just perform to the same level they have all year then the Spurs will still go close to .500 the rest of the way. One weak point is that these models are slow to catch onto trends so things like the Spurs playing well and the Lakers playing poorly aren't fully realized into the model.

Cheers

[FutureMan]

We don’t have a Lakers first rounder, this year, next, or ever.

Right, we have a second. I was referring to the fear of them getting a higher draft pick than us. To me that would be a disaster since this team desperately needs a franchise player and the possibility that they would be closer to one with a higher draft pick.

I see your other post that clarifies if it falls within the ranges of 1-10 it still doesn’t stay with the Lakers. So that gives me so peace of mind. Let the Lakers burn. :lol

[Mr. Body]

Spurs point differential: When they get on top of teams, they can blow them out. Other side, they have struggled to close out a ton of games. Quite a lot of them. They have no closer and as a team don't know how to crank up things on both sides of the ball.

[Mr. Body]

Raptors wrecking a starless Nets team. I figure they'll wobble around and stay pretty much where they are.

[Allan Rowe vs Wade]

They don't own their own pick this year.


Not only do the Lakers not have their first round pick this year the Spurs own the Lakers 2nd round pick. It could end up in the 30s if they keep this up.


Their pick conveys to New Orleans if it falls 1-10 and to Memphis if it falls 11-30. Jokes on them.

https://c.tenor.com/XS-jrtk_r84AAAAC/good-good-evil.gif

[mystargtr34]

I am still hoping the Kings can make a decent run at the play-in and move above the Spurs in the standings. The addition of Sabonis should translate to wins since the Haliburton and Fox combo was a duplication of skills. Still too early to judge the new Kings though, they started off well with 2 wins with Sabonis and have had a bunch of losses against tough opposition but one loss against a horrible Nets team thrown in. If they beat OKC tonight and Spurs lose to Memphis they'll only be 2 losses behind the Spurs.

I think the Pelicans are going to finish in the final play-in spot as their lineup of CJ-Herb-Ingram-Hayes-Valanciunas has played good basketball. Even before the CJ trade that lineup of JV-Herb-Ingram with Josh Hart and Devonte Graham had a really good net rating, their bench was just horrendous. They also finally moved to Devonte to the bench and put CJ at the 1, you cannot start CJ and Devonte together they were getting abused on D.

The Blazers are tanking hard and will definitely finish with a worse record than the Spurs.

Thus, I think there's a good chance the Spurs finish with the 4th worst record in the West after Houston, OKC and Portland. In the East, Detroit, Orlando and Indiana are locks to finish worst. That would give the Spurs the 7th worst record. Knicks look like they are in free fall but not sure Thibs knows how to tank and not play his main guys 43 minutes. The Spurs could then also decide to package the Raptors and Celtics picks in the late teens and early 20's into another lottery pick potentially, maybe in the 12-14 range and get Tari Eason or Jalen Duren.

[duncan2150]

I am still hoping the Kings can make a decent run at the play-in and move above the Spurs in the standings. The addition of Sabonis should translate to wins since the Haliburton and Fox combo was a duplication of skills. Still too early to judge the new Kings though, they started off well with 2 wins with Sabonis and have had a bunch of losses against tough opposition but one loss against a horrible Nets team thrown in. If they beat OKC tonight and Spurs lose to Memphis they'll only be 2 losses behind the Spurs.


Next two games for the Kings are @Pels and @ spurs on a B2B.

I don't believe in them but if they win both they can stay in the race.

[Mr. Body]

The Pacers may be more of a problem than the Kings, even. The East is sewn up as far as they're concerned while the bad teams in the West still have a shot.

[rankingtear]

Since the new lottery odds :

7 has won 3 straight times
8 has won 2 times
11 has won once ( rigged for LAL )

We are 7th so top 4 is 100% guaranteed start scouting Chet and Smith.

[slick'81]

Prediction-spurs finish 13/7 in their final 20 games

[TD 21]

The addition of Sabonis should translate to wins since the Haliburton and Fox combo was a duplication of skills. Still too early to judge the new Kings though, they started off well with 2 wins with Sabonis and have had a bunch of losses against tough opposition but one loss against a horrible Nets team thrown in.

Thus, I think there's a good chance the Spurs finish with the 4th worst record in the West after Houston, OKC and Portland. In the East, Detroit, Orlando and Indiana are locks to finish worst. That would give the Spurs the 7th worst record. Knicks look like they are in free fall but not sure Thibs knows how to tank and not play his main guys 43 minutes. The Spurs could then also decide to package the Raptors and Celtics picks in the late teens and early 20's into another lottery pick potentially, maybe in the 12-14 range and get Tari Eason or Jalen Duren.

Haliburton and Fox aren't a duplication of skills. The former is a much better shooter/play maker while the latter is a much better slasher. Nah, it isn't too early; the team still sucks.

Agreed with the standings bit and I know you said could, but I'll believe the Spurs drafting Eason or Duren when I see it. They're not Spurs type bigs/personalities.

[couchman]

Celtics Jalen Brown might miss some games after that ankle sprain

[duncan2150]

Raptors with 5 games ahead the 9th and 10 th place of the East, still not sure they can beat Brooklyn and Atlanta/Charlotte in the play in but they will stay top 8 imo.

Lakers with another L and a strong schedule.

[exstatic]

Raptors with 5 games ahead the 9th and 10 th place of the East, still not sure they can beat Brooklyn and Atlanta/Charlotte in the play in but they will stay top 8 imo.

Lakers with another L and a strong schedule.

The 7,8 teams only have to win one game to play in. They play each other, and the winner is in. The loser plays the winner of 9,10 and the winner of that game is in, so two chances to win a game.

[BG_Spurs_Fan]

Very important games the next couple of days.

Sacramento @ New Orleans
Sacramento @ San Antonio

Spurs have a chance to get in top 10 very soon and have a very winnable home heavy schedule over the next three weeks. With Lakers collapsing even 9th is within reach. Spurs host both Lakers and Pelicans in this stretch. Let's hope they play their best basketball of the season.

[duncan2150]

The 7,8 teams only have to win one game to play in. They play each other, and the winner is in. The loser plays the winner of 9,10 and the winner of that game is in, so two chances to win a game.
Yes, i know , thanks exstatic. That's why i said that im not sure they could win BK "AND" Charlotte or Atlanta. They could lose both.

[KingKev]

Very important games the next couple of days.

Sacramento @ New Orleans
Sacramento @ San Antonio

Spurs have a chance to get in top 10 very soon and have a very winnable home heavy schedule over the next three weeks. With Lakers collapsing even 9th is within reach. Spurs host both Lakers and Pelicans in this stretch. Let's hope they play their best basketball of the season.

Yeah a top 5 pick is pretty unlikely at this point. Might as well gun for the play in and get these guys some experience.

I think we should all expect 3 picks in the 10-25 range at this point. Beating the Lakers in the play-in would be very satisfying.

[exstatic]

Yes, i know , thanks exstatic. That's why i said that im not sure they could win BK "AND" Charlotte or Atlanta. They could lose both.

Your AND was what confused me. It’s an OR. CHA/ATL are 6/14 in their collective last 20.

[duncan2150]

Your AND was what confused me. It’s an OR. CHA/ATL are 6/14 in their collective last 20.

you're right. It's just that everything is possible in one game, the Hawks for example are playing bad but in one game with a big Young they could win. Still the Raps will have at least two chances to make the Po ( they will be 7 or 8 imo).

[Mr. Body]

Very important games the next couple of days.

Sacramento @ New Orleans
Sacramento @ San Antonio

Spurs have a chance to get in top 10 very soon and have a very winnable home heavy schedule over the next three weeks. With Lakers collapsing even 9th is within reach. Spurs host both Lakers and Pelicans in this stretch. Let's hope they play their best basketball of the season.

Yeah, I think they'll qualify for the play-in. Really, there are no stars in this draft, at least obvious ones, and the Spurs would likely do something funky and weird even if they got a top 5 pick. Even at pick 10 they'd likely zig while everyone else was zagging and tab some surprise.

[mystargtr34]

I am still hoping the Kings can make a decent run at the play-in and move above the Spurs in the standings. The addition of Sabonis should translate to wins since the Haliburton and Fox combo was a duplication of skills. Still too early to judge the new Kings though, they started off well with 2 wins with Sabonis and have had a bunch of losses against tough opposition but one loss against a horrible Nets team thrown in. If they beat OKC tonight and Spurs lose to Memphis they'll only be 2 losses behind the Spurs.

I think the Pelicans are going to finish in the final play-in spot as their lineup of CJ-Herb-Ingram-Hayes-Valanciunas has played good basketball. Even before the CJ trade that lineup of JV-Herb-Ingram with Josh Hart and Devonte Graham had a really good net rating, their bench was just horrendous. They also finally moved to Devonte to the bench and put CJ at the 1, you cannot start CJ and Devonte together they were getting abused on D.

The Blazers are tanking hard and will definitely finish with a worse record than the Spurs.

Thus, I think there's a good chance the Spurs finish with the 4th worst record in the West after Houston, OKC and Portland. In the East, Detroit, Orlando and Indiana are locks to finish worst. That would give the Spurs the 7th worst record. Knicks look like they are in free fall but not sure Thibs knows how to tank and not play his main guys 43 minutes. The Spurs could then also decide to package the Raptors and Celtics picks in the late teens and early 20's into another lottery pick potentially, maybe in the 12-14 range and get Tari Eason or Jalen Duren.

Good loss against the Kings. Only 2 losses ahead now. Boston looks like they’re going to finish in the 4-5 range in the East maybe even as high as 3rd seed. The Raptors had a bad loss today against the Pistons. I still think the Raptors CAN finish 6th with Cleveland dropping down to 7. I’d rather get that pick this year, no guarantees they make the playoffs next year. And I think they could easily lose out in the play in if they end up 7th. All it would take would be a loss to the 8 seed Nets and then a loss to likely the Hawks or Hornets both who can catch heat.

[ZeusWillJudge]

If you haven't watched Ohio State this season, make a point of it and watch Malaki Branham. He could be another Desmond Bane (who I screamed for the Spurs to take). He's got that same sort of build, and hard-nosed style of play. I think he's as filled out as Bane was as a freshman, and he's shooting 44% from 3P which is much better than Bane as a freshman. If he declares, he should be available with one of the Spurs' later first round picks.

I wasn't real high on using the Spurs' own pick on Eason because I don't think he's that kind of player. But i saw him play against Arkansas and I would take him in a heartbeat with one of the later firsts. He forced his way to the line time after time, and knocked them down. I don't think he'll be able to bully that much in the NBA, and I'm still not sold on his 3P shot. But that extra dimension of forcing guys to foul him plus his D will put him on the court off someone's bench.

[mookie2001]

I'm looking at AJ Griffin from Duke here. At the least (that's the least we could do.)

[mystargtr34]

Wrong thread.

[pookenstein]

Maybe I'm to pessimistic here, but I have zero faith in Toronto winning a single game in the Play in games. Hope I'm wrong but I got a real bad feeling about the pick.

[Dex]

As much as it sucks to be looking at the lottery for a third straight year...we are still only 3.5 games back on the "championship favorites" Lakers, so we got that going for us, which is nice.

Also, Lakers don't even own their pick this year :lmao

[XDT76]

Looks like Raptors wanna keep their pick this year.

[mystargtr34]

Raps back to back losses to the Pissed Ons and Magic. No FVV in either game, No OG, and Gary Trent stinking up the joint and not hitting a shot in either game, means the Raps are basically a lottery team. Its just Siakam, Barnes and a bunch of nobodies.

Raps need to get FVV back quick or they'll keep losing.

[Chinook]

I honestly do think the Raptors will choose to back out of the play-in and keep their pick while taking the Pistons second in the process. They just don't see to have any interest in winning anymore.

[offset formation]

That Raptors pick is looking VERY UNLIKELY to convey.

[BatManu20]

Raptors are about to start tanking. And the Knicks just choked a 14-point lead and lost on a buzzer-beater, so they’re e probably about to start tanking too. Not looking good for the Spurs.

[duncan2150]

Raptors will make the play in imo, Wizards are 6.5 games behind them with 19 games remaining.

But i don't see them going to the PO, they suck right now.

[NickiRasgo]

I don't see why the Raptors will tank purposely. Besides if they got to tank, isn't it Spurs still have a chance to get their 2023 (Protected 1-13) pick right? And I don't see them will be very bad next season and I kinda like it instead if it's next draft since it's too much to draft 3 players in the first round unless they'll gonna trade one of them anyways for future pick.

Just read that Grizzlies can actually take the Lakers pick this season if the Lakers will be in 11-30 (Pelicans if it's 1-10). Damn.

[CGD]

That Raptors pick is looking VERY UNLIKELY to convey.

That’s exaggerated. They’re 7th and still 3.5 up on 8th seed.

[duncan2150]

I don't see why the Raptors will tank purposely. Besides if they got to tank, isn't it Spurs still have a chance to get their 2023 (Protected 1-13) pick right? And I don't see them will be very bad next season and I kinda like it instead if it's next draft since it's too much to draft 3 players in the first round unless they'll gonna trade one of them anyways for future pick.

Just read that Grizzlies can actually take the Lakers pick this season if the Lakers will be in 11-30 (Pelicans if it's 1-10). Damn.

I also think they will not tank, i don't see why they will..

Yes Lakers pick will go to Pels or Grizz.

[NickiRasgo]

I also think they will not tank, i don't see why they will..

Yes Lakers pick will go to Pels or Grizz.

Hope the Grizzlies will have it. Happy for them. Kinda feel like Ja Morant's health is a "time-bomb" like D-Rose but hopefully I'm wrong.

[mo7888]

I think the Raps make the play in tournament as well as the 8th seed...I'm not sure they'll win either game to make the playoffs though..

[Chinook]

I don't see why the Raptors will tank purposely. Besides if they got to tank, isn't it Spurs still have a chance to get their 2023 (Protected 1-13) pick right? And I don't see them will be very bad next season and I kinda like it instead if it's next draft since it's too much to draft 3 players in the first round unless they'll gonna trade one of them anyways for future pick.

Just read that Grizzlies can actually take the Lakers pick this season if the Lakers will be in 11-30 (Pelicans if it's 1-10). Damn.

The Raptors get the Pistons' second-rounder regardless. If they tank to keep their pick this year and then just decide to do a bigger rebuild next year (like trading FVV and Siakam), they could definitely end up not conveying the first to SA. Hopefully in that scenario, their second is really good, and they stay bad enough to also convey a good second in 2026. But that's salvage value.

[TD 21]

I don't see why the Raptors will tank purposely. Besides if they got to tank, isn't it Spurs still have a chance to get their 2023 (Protected 1-13) pick right? And I don't see them will be very bad next season and I kinda like it instead if it's next draft since it's too much to draft 3 players in the first round unless they'll gonna trade one of them anyways for future pick.

Just read that Grizzlies can actually take the Lakers pick this season if the Lakers will be in 11-30 (Pelicans if it's 1-10). Damn.

They won't. They're a top heavy team missing probably their best (Van Vleet) and third best player (Anunoby), who also comprise two of their three credible 3-point threats, paving the way for teams to zone them to death. They were also due to regress to the mean.

If at least Van Vleet (day to day) returns soon, they'll probably pass the Cavaliers for 6th. Even if they don't, if the Nets don't get reasonable healthy/in rhythm, they could beat them in the play-in.

[Biggems]

If we end the season at 26-56, giving Pop the top spot in coaching wins, where do you think that puts us prior to the draft lottery? I think that puts us at 4.

[John B]

If we end the season at 26-56, giving Pop the top spot in coaching wins, where do you think that puts us prior to the draft lottery? I think that puts us at 4.

That would be the best possible scenario.

[Mr. Body]

This point, I expect Portland and the Knicks to drop worse than the Spurs, who will wind up at #9. If Sacramento is worse, then #10. A number 9 slot still gives a 20% shot at a top 4 pick, but the 10 only a 14%.

[mo7888]

That would be the best possible scenario.

Yep...but I think we end up at 7 or 8 going into the lottery..

[offset formation]

That’s exaggerated. They’re 7th and still 3.5 up on 8th seed.

On a team that just got back the best player in the league AND will soon get the services of Ben Simmons to boot. Not to mention, both Atlanta and Charlotte are right behind them. They are gonna be lucky to hold onto the 10th seed.

[Sugus]

On a team that just got back the best player in the league AND will soon get the services of Ben Simmons to boot. Not to mention, both Atlanta and Charlotte are right behind them. They are gonna be lucky to hold onto the 10th seed.

:lmao

[Seventyniner]

On a team that just got back the best player in the league AND will soon get the services of Ben Simmons to boot. Not to mention, both Atlanta and Charlotte are right behind them. They are gonna be lucky to hold onto the 10th seed.

The Raps falling behind Brooklyn is probably imo, and falling behind Atlanta and Charlotte is plausible. But they would have also be passed by the Wizards, who the Raps are 5.5 games up on with only 20 left, to fall out of the top 10 and miss the play-in. I think that's rather unlikely.

I think the seed possibilities for Toronto, in decreasing order of likelihood, are 7-8, 9-10, top 6, out of the top 10.

[barakz21]

This is a good loss. Entertaining, opportunities for growth from the young guys, AND still increase our odds of a higher lottery pick.

In essence.. Spurs win!

[Atl Spur]

This is a good loss. Entertaining, opportunities for growth from the young guys, AND still increase our odds of a higher lottery pick.

In essence.. Spurs win!

This

[John B]

Spurs lost and Lakers won should be good, right? Let’s go Lebron :lol

[exstatic]

The Raps falling behind Brooklyn is probably imo, and falling behind Atlanta and Charlotte is plausible. But they would have also be passed by the Wizards, who the Raps are 5.5 games up on with only 20 left, to fall out of the top 10 and miss the play-in. I think that's rather unlikely.

I think the seed possibilities for Toronto, in decreasing order of likelihood, are 7-8, 9-10, top 6, out of the top 10.

We need them in the playoffs, not the play in. If they’re 9-10, we have a near zero chance at the pick. They would have to win two consecutive high pressure games to play in.

[BackHome]

On a team that just got back the best player in the league AND will soon get the services of Ben Simmons to boot. Not to mention, both Atlanta and Charlotte are right behind them. They are gonna be lucky to hold onto the 10th seed.

No one knows when Simmons is going to make it on the court ?

[Cklbmk]

I'm ready for our next foundational talent.

Praying for a jump to 2nd pick to snag Chet.


Dejounte/Tre/
Vassell/Primo/Woodard
Keldon/McD/KBD
Chet/Collins/Keldon/McD
Poeltl/Chet

Then maybe try to draft 1/3/4 with the 18-20 pick(s). BPA ideally not at SG but Wendell Moore does have an interesting rate of progression. I'm partial to the guys like Jimmy Butler / Kawhi / Otto porter that start off their careers with improvement across the board in all facets consistently. Moore has a comparable rate of progression but made a big jump in passing seemingly this last year. If you can learn to pass from not passing much which keeping turnovers the same.. very interesting

[mo7888]

Toronto would be winning this game if Siakam could make a FT....he's making jak look like steph from the line tonight.

[keithington1]

Spurs need a player like Tari Eason. If they could get Duren and Eason their in business.

[offset formation]

No one knows when Simmons is going to make it on the court ?

Bank on it being very shortly after their game in Philadelphia. My guess is he doesn't want to ever step foot in that town again, which is not a good sign if they meet in the playoffs.

[MultiTroll]

Raptors pick: Where do we want them to end up again?

They're sliding. 3-7 last ten.

[exstatic]

Raptors pick: Where do we want them to end up again?

They're sliding. 3-7 last ten.

We want them in the playoffs, but barely. The pick is protected 1-14, so if they miss the playoffs, we have to wait another year. I’d be perfectly happy to see it right where it is, #17. If they stay #7 in the East,they get to host the 7-8 playin game. If they win, the pick will convey this year. If they lose, they host the winner of 9-10, and if they win that game, the pick conveys. The pick is good enough, and they get two home games to win once.

[Mr. Body]

Knicks routed the Clippers. They've been up big a number of games and still lost. This wasn't one of them, so finally stop their skid.

[Mr. Body]

Can't tell who is better to win vs. Kings and Knicks right now. I'd go with Knicks to get them off our backs. They're too good to be this shitty. More like mediocre.

[John B]

Now let’s get back to losing :lol. Loss to Raptors actually helps them get to the playoffs, AND helps Spurs get a higher pick. So an L next game vs the Raptors is a must

[mystargtr34]

Looks like the Kings are still terrible even with Sabonis, will be tough to keep them below us in the standings. It was good however for the Knicks to win to get them off our back as Mr. Body said.

[duncan2150]

Can't tell who is better to win vs. Kings and Knicks right now. I'd go with Knicks to get them off our backs. They're too good to be this shitty. More like mediocre.


i will say the Knicks too, they are one of our opponent for the lottery lol the kings are so bad, they will be behind us without a doubt imo.

Grizz vs Pelicans will be interesting Tuesday.

[Mr. Body]

Pelicans without Ingram and McCollum for at least the next week. Look like they're a big risk to tank after all.

[duncan2150]

And their pick goes to Portland.

[Mr. Body]

My guess is the Spurs end out at #9 or #10. They go from a 1/3 chance at a top 4 pick to a 1/5 chance or worse.

[duncan2150]

I think so, somewhere between 8 and 10.

About our picks :

The good- The Raptors won yesterday at phoenix, the return of FVV make them better and they are only 2 games behind the injured Cavs. The Lakers W one yesterday.

The bad- Boston continues to win, the Pels are really bad without CJ and Ingram, The Knicks L and are only 2 games ahead of us.

[exstatic]

I think so, somewhere between 8 and 10.

About our picks :

The good- The Raptors won yesterday at phoenix, the return of FVV make them better and they are only 2 games behind the injured Cavs. The Lakers W one yesterday.

The bad- Boston continues to win, the Pels are really bad without CJ and Ingram, The Knicks L and are only 2 games ahead of us.

Boston’s pick will be whatever it is.

The Pelicans could have stood pat and tanked. They gave up their lottery pick in this draft for CJ. They’ll resume winning when those guys return.

New York's two games back with 16 to play. That’s actually a pretty tall hill to climb.

[RC_Drunkford]

I'm ok with being 7th in the draft order since that one has a history of jumping into the top 4. Anything worse than that would be terrible. I'm pretty sure we will be 10th when it's all said and done

[MultiTroll]

Toronto coming back and pounding Denver in the 4th. :clap

[TDMVPDPOY]

last 16 games...looks like most teams are in the tank

[XDT76]

Not a bad day for us Rap, Portland won. We lost only pity is Sac lost too.

[Kurik]

Great sign that Toronto is looking competitive again!

[duncan2150]

Good that the Raps win.

https://www.tankathon.com/remaining_schedule_strength

Interesting that Portland schedule is really open, you never know. The Pels, the Raps, the Knicks with good schedule remaining.

Spurs will face NO 2 times and Portland 3 times, will be very important games for the lottery.

[BatManu20]

Good that the Raps win.

https://www.tankathon.com/remaining_schedule_strength

Interesting that Portland schedule is really use, you never know. The Pels, the Raps, the Knicks with good schedule remaining.

Spurs will face NO 2 times and Portland 3 times, will be very important games for the lottery.

Ain't no way Spurs out-tank Portland in those 3 games. I bet they sit all their remaining starters and play their G-League squad while we play Murray and co.

[duncan2150]

Ain't no way Spurs out-tank Portland in those 3 games. I bet they sit all their remaining starters and play their G-League squad while we play Murray and co.


I think the same, very unlikely to see portland ahead of the Spurs, we'll see.

[John B]

Ain't no way Spurs out-tank Portland in those 3 games. I bet they sit all their remaining starters and play their G-League squad while we play Murray and co.

Murray will continue playing solid for that MIP.

[BG_Spurs_Fan]

That Dallas win at Boston was very important. Hopefully keep Boston at around 20, they've been playing very well for a while.

[Mr. Body]

As much as we've been fretting about Toronto doing poorly and Boston doing well, they're only 2 games apart in the loss column.

[mo7888]

As much as we've been fretting about Toronto doing poorly and Boston doing well, they're only 2 games apart in the loss column.

And they play each other 1 more time...

[MannyIsGod]

RAPTOR currently has us finishing with the 8th worst record so not much has changed from earlier posts on that.

However, Celtics are now progged at the 9th best record so we'd get the 22nd pick which is pretty good.

Raptors now at 88% to make the playoffs via RAPTOR which rebounded quite a bit from just a week ago. Looking like that pick would convey at about 17.

Lakers continue to be really awful which helps us for the 2nd rounder.

[Mr. Body]

Sacramento surprisingly beat Chicago pretty easily at home. Portland was up on Atlanta but choked/tanked.

It seems like the 6-8 pick range will be those three teams (POR, SAC, SAS). Indiana isn't going to win enough to be in that group. The Knicks I think will stay just above in wins. NOP has no incentive to tank, as their pick is owned by Portland.

Sacto and SAS are only two wins out of the play-in, a sign of how atrocious the West has been this year.

The Spurs have some extremely weak games coming up.

[Mr. Body]

As for the later picks, Toronto is wrecking LAL, keeping them in a very good spot among the play-ins. Now that Van Vleet is back, they're solid. Right now they're pick #17.

Cleveland and Denver both won. These are the teams in most competition for the Boston pick. Actually, there's a big jam with teams around 26-30 losses with Boston sitting at 28 losses. The rest of their schedule looks pretty hard though. Right now they're pick #20.

[John B]

Sacto and SAS are only two wins out of the play-in, a sign of how atrocious the West has been this year.



Don’t let Pop know that and give him wise ideas :lol

[KobesAchilles]

Where is Ivey projected to go? That’s my pick for us

[XDT76]

Where is Ivey projected to go? That’s my pick for us

Top 4?

[Mr. Body]

Where is Ivey projected to go? That’s my pick for us

Not where we pick. Have fun following the Rockets.

[John B]

Not where we pick. Have fun following the Rockets.

There’s still a good chance the Spurs get a lucky ball and get top 4 pick, if Spurs can remain at 7 worst record.

[duncan2150]

Sacramento surprisingly beat Chicago pretty easily at home. Portland was up on Atlanta but choked/tanked.

It seems like the 6-8 pick range will be those three teams (POR, SAC, SAS). Indiana isn't going to win enough to be in that group. The Knicks I think will stay just above in wins. NOP has no incentive to tank, as their pick is owned by Portland.

Sacto and SAS are only two wins out of the play-in, a sign of how atrocious the West has been this year.

The Spurs have some extremely weak games coming up.

Those next 6 games will be important : OKC, Blazers, Houston, Nox2 and GS. If the Spurs don't win more than 2-3 games they will be in the 6-8 range imo.

[buttsR4rebounding]

The Blazers play the easiest remaining schedule in the league. They have 11 games left with the Spurs, OKC, Houston, Knicks, Orlando and Detroit.

[duncan2150]

The Blazers play the easiest remaining schedule in the league. They have 11 games left with the Spurs, OKC, Houston, Knicks, Orlando and Detroit.

Easiest and by far, they will face teams with 38.7% of winning , the Hawks who have the second easiest schedule will face teams with 46.9% of winning for example.

McCollum comes back tonight for the Pels.

[KobesAchilles]

Not where we pick. Have fun following the Rockets.
Well I do live in Houston. And Green looks like a stud. I don’t think Ivey would be a good pairing with Green as they are very similar players. Green is basically a bigger stronger version of Ivey. The Rockets need shooting more than anything else if they do draft Ivey. I think Chet would be better for them though.

[Mr. Body]

Well I do live in Houston. And Green looks like a stud. I don’t think Ivey would be a good pairing with Green as they are very similar players. Green is basically a bigger stronger version of Ivey. The Rockets need shooting more than anything else if they do draft Ivey. I think Chet would be better for them though.

Basketball is more than running and scoring. We'll see if Green can translate into wins. Rockets need a structure, team identity, and good coaching. A glue guy like Chet would help significantly.

[KobesAchilles]

Basketball is more than running and scoring. We'll see if Green can translate into wins. Rockets need a structure, team identity, and good coaching. A glue guy like Chet would help significantly.
I have no idea if Green will be a franchise player but he’s definitely an All Star in the future. He has improved so much from the beginning of the year. The game is still fast for him and his ability to control the game isn’t even close to being good yet. But you can see all the tools and potential. But more importantly, you can see he puts in the work to improve. He can beat his man off the dribble, has more confidence in his shot, and is starting to play make for others too.

That’s why I think they should draft Chet. Chet isn’t going to come in as a star. He isn’t going to demand the ball to score his points. He’s going to play in the rhythm of the game. Ivey and Green will look dynamic on paper. Chet and Green will play dynamic in a few years together.

[Mr. Body]

I have no idea if Green will be a franchise player but he’s definitely an All Star in the future. He has improved so much from the beginning of the year. The game is still fast for him and his ability to control the game isn’t even close to being good yet. But you can see all the tools and potential. But more importantly, you can see he puts in the work to improve. He can beat his man off the dribble, has more confidence in his shot, and is starting to play make for others too.

That’s why I think they should draft Chet. Chet isn’t going to come in as a star. He isn’t going to demand the ball to score his points. He’s going to play in the rhythm of the game. Ivey and Green will look dynamic on paper. Chet and Green will play dynamic in a few years together.

Writing down: "Jalen Green is definitely an All-Star in the future."

[BackHome]

The Blazers play the easiest remaining schedule in the league. They have 11 games left with the Spurs, OKC, Houston, Knicks, Orlando and Detroit.

If the Blazers win 1 game I would be shocked they tanking hard

[T Park]

If the Blazers win 1 game I would be shocked they tanking hard
They’ll beat Detroit and Orlando

[Mr. Body]

Today (against OKC at home) should be the day the Spurs fall to the #8 pick, where I think they will stay... unless NYK and/or Washington manage to out-tank them or the Spurs manage to overtake the Lakers for the play-in. I think NOP will be playing hard to stay in the play-in.

[The Truth #6]

So if we get the #8 worst record, what are the odds of our lottery pick being worse than 8? I’m trying to remember the rules/algorithm/sorcery that govern this stuff.

[MultiTroll]

So if we get the #8 worst record, what are the odds of our lottery pick being worse than 8? I’m trying to remember the rules/algorithm/sorcery that govern this stuff.
exstatic is on this kind of stuff.
Wait til he gets off lunch break.

[KingKev]

So if we get the #8 worst record, what are the odds of our lottery pick being worse than 8? I’m trying to remember the rules/algorithm/sorcery that govern this stuff.

https://www.tankathon.com/pick_odds

[exstatic]

#8 pick has 26.3% chance to jump into the top 4, 34.5% chance to stay put, and a 32.1% chance to get knocked back 1 slot. Getting knocked back multiple slots is a small chance, but we have a better shot at just pick #4, than we do to get knocked back 2 slots.

[MultiTroll]

They’ll beat Detroit and Orlando
Why do you say so porkle?
Reason i ask is Orlando 5-5 last 10.
Det 4-6 altho recently had a funky 6-2 stretch before losing their last 4.

[mystargtr34]

Good loss against the Kings. Only 2 losses ahead now. Boston looks like they’re going to finish in the 4-5 range in the East maybe even as high as 3rd seed. The Raptors had a bad loss today against the Pistons. I still think the Raptors CAN finish 6th with Cleveland dropping down to 7. I’d rather get that pick this year, no guarantees they make the playoffs next year. And I think they could easily lose out in the play in if they end up 7th. All it would take would be a loss to the 8 seed Nets and then a loss to likely the Hawks or Hornets both who can catch heat.

Raptors win against the Clips has them with an equal record with Cleveland for 6th in the East, they seem to be surging while the Cavs are sliding. Hopefully they can get that 6th spot and have Cleveland drop to 7th. Secure that first round pick. Spurs could then package the Boston and Raptors picks into a higher pick. I think the 19th and 22nd pick for example could get you up to 15 or 16 potentially if you find the right trade partner and they take a player for you.