Draft Strategy: Trading Up With 20 & 25

[Mr. Body]

This scenario has come up many times, the Spurs consolidating later draft picks to get into the teens. In theory it works very well -- the team may not want to carry more than two rookies, this draft may fall off in the late teens to early twenties -- and so putting the Derrick White pick and Thad Young move-up together? Let's do it, right?

10 - Washington
11 - New York
12 - OKC
13 - Charlotte
14 - Cleveland
15 - Charlotte
16 - Atlanta
17 - Houston
18 - Chicago
19 - Minnesota

How likely are these teams to move back? If the draft flattens, surely they see the same thing. But then it depends on how things are shaking out.

My sense is that WAS, NYC, OKC, are too far to jump using 20 and 25. CHA already has those two picks and so splitting one isn't attractive to them. CHI and MIN are probably too short a jump to give up our picks. This leaves CLE, ATL, and HOU as possible targets.

At that point, what do those teams want? I feel like jumping into this range is actually harder than we'd like.

[The Truth #6]

Yak and Josh Richardson could be in play, too. The Knicks could like Richardson, but I sort of like him on the Spurs, too.

[BacktoBasics]

I don’t see anyone valuing both of those picks enough to drop back. No one is going to overpay to drop back. We’ll have to overpay to move up.

I do however see an argument for OKC to take one of those plus something like next years top 8 protected 1st to do it. If we really valued someone at 12 it would be a risk worth considering.

[The Truth #6]

Also, Presti could love having two more FRPs. He’d probably get off on that.

[CGD]

Yeah I don’t think it’s worth it unless they absolutely have a player in mind between 13-16. Otherwise at that stage just roll the dice, trust your scouts, and development program.

[barakz21]

When I play GM on 2K (I know, this ain’t 2K) and I have multiple 1sts and still have my 2nd, I try to use the worse 1st pick in conjunction with the 2nd to move up a few spots and still have my better 1rd pick. Do you think that’s viable IRL if we use 25 and 38?

[mo7888]

This scenario has come up many times, the Spurs consolidating later draft picks to get into the teens. In theory it works very well -- the team may not want to carry more than two rookies, this draft may fall off in the late teens to early twenties -- and so putting the Derrick White pick and Thad Young move-up together? Let's do it, right?

10 - Washington
11 - New York
12 - OKC
13 - Charlotte
14 - Cleveland
15 - Charlotte
16 - Atlanta
17 - Houston
18 - Chicago
19 - Minnesota

How likely are these teams to move back? If the draft flattens, surely they see the same thing. But then it depends on how things are shaking out.

My sense is that WAS, NYC, OKC, are too far to jump using 20 and 25. CHA already has those two picks and so splitting one isn't attractive to them. CHI and MIN are probably too short a jump to give up our picks. This leaves CLE, ATL, and HOU as possible targets.

At that point, what do those teams want? I feel like jumping into this range is actually harder than we'd like.

It's hard to see the team with enough roster spots to add two picks for their one.... I'd say maybe (big maybe) Chicago and/or Atlanta might be interested in a couple more nba ready guys on cheap deals...but that's the only possibilities I see unless it's a bigger deal involving current roster guys as well.

[Mr. Body]

It may serve to think about what players the Spurs might want who will (likely) be gone by 20. EJ Liddell, Jaylen Williams, Tari Eason, Ousmane Dieng, Dalen Terry. There's a chance one or two slip through, but I'm not sure. After that, it's players like Jovic and Beauchamp, who are much more flawed.

If it's unlikely to trade up with those two picks, what are the possibilities of using one and future draft capital? It's not something the Spurs usually do, but there continues to be an issue here, I feel -- too many rookies with four picks. There may be an opportunity trading the other of the 20/25 to a team without a FR draft pick this year. (Clippers, Celtics, Suns, Jazz.)

[rascal]

20 and 25 don't have too much value.

The only possible trade is 20 or 25 + Poeltl to Charlotte for 13 or 15 and that won't be easy as Char was reluctant to trade either pick earlier in the year to the spurs.

[rascal]

I don’t see anyone valuing both of those picks enough to drop back. No one is going to overpay to drop back. We’ll have to overpay to move up.

I do however see an argument for OKC to take one of those plus something like next years top 8 protected 1st to do it. If we really valued someone at 12 it would be a risk worth considering.

OK City is trying to trade that pick, but up not down.

[rascal]

I'm starting to think more and more the Spurs trade 20 for a future lottery protected FRP.

There will be teams calling the Spurs for those picks and you know those teams will want 20 over 25
and if the Spurs don't want three first round picks they will agree to move 20 if their targeted player they think they can still get will be there at 25.

[JPB]

20 and 25 don't have too much value.

The only possible trade is 20 or 25 + Poeltl to Charlotte for 13 or 15 and that won't be easy as Char was reluctant to trade either pick earlier in the year to the spurs.

Charlotte wouldn't even look at this trade. I know I wouldn't. Poetl (with his situation) + 20 and 25 are not wotrh 13 and 15 in hthis draft.

[Mr. Body]

You could possibly get one of Charlotte's picks using Poeltl, but they already declined and probably think they can get Duren or Williams.

[CGD]

Charlotte wouldn't even look at this trade. I know I wouldn't. Poetl (with his situation) + 20 and 25 are not wotrh 13 and 15 in hthis draft.

The biggest threat to a CHA play is if they indeed hire D’Antoni. Not sure how he’d value a Jakob type.

The old regime does a Jakob and 20 for 13 deal I think. Yes he’s expiring (that sucks), but SAS would likely have to take back one of their Turds and $5M next year so there is that

[rascal]

You could possibly get one of Charlotte's picks using Poeltl, but they already declined and probably think they can get Duren or Williams.

But if they think they aren't getting Duren or Williams and the spurs offer Poeltl and 20 for 15 they might make the trade. Probably the only scenario where Charlotte bites on a trade.
It would take Portland to take Duren and Washington to take Williams so it's a long shot to happen.

Pick 15 may be enough to land Eason and at 9 the Spurs can get Davis. Then at 25 the spurs need to get a center.

[Excessive Egotist]

You could possibly get one of Charlotte's picks using Poeltl, but they already declined and probably think they can get Duren or Williams.

Michael Jordan's influence and LaMelo Ball will determine whether they prefer to draft a center or trade for a big man vet, like Poeltl. Their interest in Ayton also factors in, of course. If Jordan is bent on postseason contention next year, it's all but certain Duren or Wlliams won't help much. If Ball wants to win immediately, and Charlotte is already nervous about retaining him in a small market, Poeltl might get the edge.

I don't think anyone disagrees that Poeltl grades out as having FRP value, but pick 13 seems a bit too rich for him. Swapping 13 for 25 and picking up Poeltl seems like a trade Charlotte could claim to have won. If I'm the Spurs, I look at that, or ask for future SRP in return to get something closer to even value in the exchange.

Although, the Spurs would have to get pick 13, because Charlotte could still draft a center at 15. Assuming Duren and Williams are each on the board at 13, at least one of the two will be available at 15 because Cleveland will not draft a center at 14. San Antonio would at least want the theoretical possibility of getting their preference between Duren or Williams, if they choose to draft a center.

Another wrinkle with Charlotte is Gordon Hayward. I view him as a negative contract, especially as he doesn't seem capable of staying healthy. Charlotte probably does too, but would never admit it. We could offer to take on Hayward's contract in an expanded deal to make a play at 13 and 15. Charlotte's payroll is about to balloon because Bridges and Washington are due for significant raises this summer. Shedding Hayward makes that much more digestible for a small market team like Charlotte. Poeltl + Richardson + Langford + 20 for 13, 15, and Hayward?

[CGD]

But if they think they aren't getting Duren or Williams and the spurs offer Poeltl and 20 for 15 they might make the trade. Probably the only scenario where Charlotte bites on a trade.
It would take Portland to take Duren and Washington to take Williams so it's a long shot to happen.

Pick 15 may be enough to land Eason and at 9 the Spurs can get Davis. Then at 25 the spurs need to get a center.

Bro, I get it, you LOVE Eason.

[mo7888]

Charlotte wouldn't even look at this trade. I know I wouldn't. Poetl (with his situation) + 20 and 25 are not wotrh 13 and 15 in hthis draft.

He said 13 or 15...not both...Charlotte would do that deal..

[Ariel]

He said 13 or 15...not both...Charlotte would do that deal..
Yes but we shouldn't. Poeltl is worth more than moving up 7 spots from 20. If it was Richardson we were talking about, then probably I'd do that.

[Excessive Egotist]

I'm starting to think more and more the Spurs trade 20 for a future lottery protected FRP.

There will be teams calling the Spurs for those picks and you know those teams will want 20 over 25
and if the Spurs don't want three first round picks they will agree to move 20 if their targeted player they think they can still get will be there at 25.

Of the myriad outcomes this draft could return, I see this as one of the better outcomes available.

[mo7888]

Yes but we shouldn't. Poeltl is worth more than moving up 7 spots from 20. If it was Richardson we were talking about, then probably I'd do that.

Yea...I'm not purposing it, I'm just saying that Charlotte would do what he purposed... I'd actually prefer to extend Poeltl and look at moving him next summer but, I might consider a Charlotte trade on draft night IF someone I really wanted fell to that 13th spot.

[Ariel]

Yea...I'm not purposing it, I'm just saying that Charlotte would do what he purposed... I'd actually prefer to extend Poeltl and look at moving him next summer but, I might consider a Charlotte trade on draft night IF someone I really wanted fell to that 13th spot.
Poeltl for 13 (+ fillers) straight up sounds reasonable for both parties, but given the abundance of centers I expect Charlotte to target Duren or Mark Williams instead.

[mo7888]

Poeltl for 13 (+ fillers) straight up sounds reasonable for both parties, but given the abundance of centers I expect Charlotte to target Duren or Mark Williams instead.

I think that's reasonable as well....As for Charlotte, I think they'd prefer Poeltl to either of those guys...I just feel like they want to make a push next year with Melo and neither of the rookies will provide what Poetl brings in year one. If they get a good vibe from his agency that he'd resign then I think they'd bite.

[Mr. Body]

I think that's reasonable as well....As for Charlotte, I think they'd prefer Poeltl to either of those guys...I just feel like they want to make a push next year with Melo and neither of the rookies will provide what Poetl brings in year one. If they get a good vibe from his agency that he'd resign then I think they'd bite.

Honestly I don't think Poeltl fits their play style at all.

[mo7888]

Honestly I don't think Poeltl fits their play style at all.

Where can they get a better 5 for next year?

[duncan2150]

After thinking a little bit i'm with this strategy of trading up with 20 and 25, maybe with players ( J Rich .....). I'll do it but only if i can go end of the lottery. Gaining only a few places for the rockets pick for example could be ok if a really good player slides.

So i will target Wash, NY, OKC, Charlotte and Cleveland with that strategy.

It will be deadly if we could have a good combo with two of those players imo : Davis, Mathurin, Duren, Sochan, Daniels and maybe M Williams.

[exstatic]

You could possibly get one of Charlotte's picks using Poeltl, but they already declined and probably think they can get Duren or Williams.

They declined when they only had one FRP, dropped into the bottom half of the play in, and got bounced. Meanwhile, New Orleans played in, and their pick (15) conveyed to Charlotte. It's free money for a team that made a bad decision in going with Trezz Harrell.

Duren might not even be on the board at #9. Almost no chance he lasts until 13. We could force their hand by picking Duren. They're also not the only team that was interested. CHI and TOR were also sniffing around, and don't rule out GSW.

[exstatic]

Yak and Josh Richardson could be in play, too. The Knicks could like Richardson, but I sort of like him on the Spurs, too.

He won't be on the Spurs after next season. Once you recognize that we have to many young mouths to feed, the right move becomes clear.

[mo7888]

They declined when they only had one FRP, dropped into the bottom half of the play in, and got bounced. Meanwhile, New Orleans played in, and their pick (15) conveyed to Charlotte. It's free money for a team that made a bad decision in going with Trezz Harrell.

Duren might not even be on the board at #9. Almost no chance he lasts until 13. We could force their hand by picking Duren. They're also not the only team that was interested. CHI and TOR were also sniffing around, and don't rule out GSW.

I see you've mentioned GSW in relation to a Poeltl deal a few times...how do you see a deal with them taking shape?

[exstatic]

20 and 25 don't have too much value.

The only possible trade is 20 or 25 + Poeltl to Charlotte for 13 or 15 and that won't be easy as Char was reluctant to trade either pick earlier in the year to the spurs.

They didn't have both picks in February. 15 literally dropped out of the sky into their laps when New Orleans bucked the odds and played in to the playoffs. 15 is free money for them.

[John B]

Yes but we shouldn't. Poeltl is worth more than moving up 7 spots from 20. If it was Richardson we were talking about, then probably I'd do that.

Charlotte needs a center, that’s where this conversation starts… not Richardson.

[John B]

They didn't have both picks in February. 15 literally dropped out of the sky into their laps when New Orleans bucked the odds and played in to the playoffs. 15 is free money for them.

If Charlotte got Duren at 13 that cancels Poeltl, what can Spurs offer for the 15 that Charlotte could be interested? Keldon?

[mo7888]

If Charlotte got Duren at 13 that cancels Poeltl, what can Spurs offer for the 15 that Charlotte could be interested? Keldon?

There's not much chance that Duren will be there at 13....he might even be our pick at 9..

[exstatic]

If Charlotte got Duren at 13 that cancels Poeltl, what can Spurs offer for the 15 that Charlotte could be interested? Keldon?

If we can't monetize Poeltl, there's not much use in trading for another FRP in this draft.

[John B]

There's not much chance that Duren will be there at 13....he might even be our pick at 9..

Which is good for us not to have Duren available to Charlotte, but still leaves Williams as their next option. I’d prefer Davis and offer Keldon. I’d really like to get a Davis and Eason off this draft.

[rascal]

Which is good for us not to have Duren available to Charlotte, but still leaves Williams as their next option. I’d prefer Davis and offer Keldon. I’d really like to get a Davis and Eason off this draft.

Sa and Charlotte would have to discuss a trade and wait and see if Portland takes Duren at 7, then the Spurs take Davis at 9 and if Wash takes Williams at 10 then they go ahead with the trade.

If Williams falls to Charlotte at 13 then doubt they make a trade.

[rascal]

They didn't have both picks in February. 15 literally dropped out of the sky into their laps when New Orleans bucked the odds and played in to the playoffs. 15 is free money for them.

Good point Charlotte would be more open to trading one of the picks now.

[exstatic]

Which is good for us not to have Duren available to Charlotte, but still leaves Williams as their next option. I’d prefer Davis and offer Keldon. I’d really like to get a Davis and Eason off this draft.

It all depends on if they're in "win now" mode to try to keep LaMelo from bolting. Developing a drafted big man might take too much time.

[Excessive Egotist]

Sa and Charlotte would have to discuss a trade and wait and see if Portland takes Duren at 7, then the Spurs take Davis at 9 and if Wash takes Williams at 10 then they go ahead with the trade.

If Williams falls to Charlotte at 13 then doubt they make a trade.


Is there talk of Portland staying in the draft? And if so, of drafting a center at 7? Both of those things seem unlikely to me. They'd be provoking Dame to make a trade request.

[exstatic]

Is there talk of Portland staying in the draft? And if so, of drafting a center at 7? Both of those things seem unlikely to me. They'd be provoking Dame to make a trade request.

...and pissing off Nurkic.

[rascal]

Is there talk of Portland staying in the draft? And if so, of drafting a center at 7? Both of those things seem unlikely to me. They'd be provoking Dame to make a trade request.

The best move for Portland is let Dame go and go into rebuild. Trade him to Sac for Ivey and keep 7.

[bluebellmaniac]

Charlotte wouldn't even look at this trade. I know I wouldn't. Poetl (with his situation) + 20 and 25 are not wotrh 13 and 15 in hthis draft.

He didn't say both, he said 13 OR 15. If they need a center, it solves their center need without risk.

[Excessive Egotist]

The best move for Portland is let Dame go and go into rebuild. Trade him to Sac for Ivey and keep 7.


I agree, but they don't give any indication this is their plan.

[CGD]

Is there talk of Portland staying in the draft? And if so, of drafting a center at 7? Both of those things seem unlikely to me. They'd be provoking Dame to make a trade request.

Portland strikes me as team that would take Duren before he get to 9, if they don’t move that pick for an established player.

[John B]

Is there talk of Portland staying in the draft? And if so, of drafting a center at 7? Both of those things seem unlikely to me. They'd be provoking Dame to make a trade request.

Are you hearing Portland rather trade their pick? I’d throw Keldon plus but keep 9.

[mo7888]

Are you hearing Portland rather trade their pick? I’d throw Keldon plus but keep 9.

There have been reports that Portland would prefer to trade the pick for a win now player to pair with Dame.

[John B]

The best move for Portland is let Dame go and go into rebuild. Trade him to Sac for Ivey and keep 7.

Damn that’s a good move. Sac will have another guard though?

[duncan2150]

i don't think Charlotte will be the best trade partner, they probably could have Williams at 13 and they already have some youth with Jones, Bouknight.... they probably don't want another pick.

[John B]

i don't think Charlotte will be the best trade partner, they probably could have Williams at 13 and they already have some youth with Jones, Bouknight.... they probably don't want another pick.

I think they can still use Keldon if we offer. I love Keldon but I would rather get a true PF like Eason at that position.

[duncan2150]

I think they can still use Keldon if we offer. I love Keldon but I would rather get a true PF like Eason at that position.

maybe for Eason, hard to know but for the Hornets Keldon doesn't make too much sense with Bridges already there.

[JPB]

He didn't say both, he said 13 OR 15. If they need a center, it solves their center need without risk.

Read it wrong indeed. Poetl and 20 for 15 is probably the only realistic trade but it all depends on what CHA could get a 13. I don't see them biting at Poetl and 20 for 13 or any other combination unless they're truly despearate. But it's not like they were a Poetl away from contending. They don't need THAT BAD a center tha they'd risk losing a potential star or solid asset for a player that may remotely help them getting swept in the first round. And they can get their center whether in that draft or via other trades anyway. but mayve I'm wrong, we''ll see.

We have to keep in mind how valuable and costly some of these picks are. Would I personnaly give #13 in htis draft for Poetl and 25? No. Poetl and 20? Hmmm... No. Poetl, 20 and 25? Hmmmmmmm... No.

[duncan2150]

Would be a baaad trade to deal Poetl + 20 for the 13th pick ( i think that Vassell, Murray, KJ or Poetl in order to move a few spots is a bad way to think).

I think sometimes people overestimates the draft tough i really think they are good players.

[Mr. Body]

Read it wrong indeed. Poetl and 20 for 15 is probably the only realistic trade but it all depends on what CHA could get a 13. I don't see them biting at Poetl and 20 for 13 or any other combination.

I have no idea what the marketplace for picks are, but there's been chatter about #7 for Zach LeVine or Julius Randle. It's not beyond comprehension, if that's true, that Poeltl could get you a 13 or a 15.

[Excessive Egotist]

There's not much chance that Duren will be there at 13....he might even be our pick at 9..

It seems insane to me to draft a traditional center at 9. Those sort of players, even when good players like Poeltl, can't stay on the floor. They're 20 mpg players.

[JPB]

I have no idea what the marketplace for picks are, but there's been chatter about #7 for Zach LeVine or Julius Randle. It's not beyond comprehension, if that's true, that Poeltl could get you a 13 or a 15.

I haven't a perfect idea either but I guess it's all about rarity. Lavine or Randle are stars/scorers who can change your team, Poetl is mainly a defensive center and a role player you don't build your team around. There might be solid players at 13 and even 15 in this draft so I'm not sure CHA would give them away for a guy who won't make that much of a difference for them even if it's true they need a center.

Teams tend to really value their lottey pick and might be reluctant to trade them for anything else than a star, not to miss a potential one. Imagine you trade #13 for Poetl and 20 and #13 ends up kicking ass... Indy accepted to take our George Hill for #15 a few years ago who trasnformed into a future HOFer. Not sure they would have taken Nephew at 15 but you get the point.

[mo7888]

It seems insane to me to draft a traditional center at 9. Those sort of players, even when good players like Poeltl, can't stay on the floor. They're 20 mpg players.

I think he has alot more upside than a traditional C and a higher ceiling than Poeltl but it'll take a couple years to reach it. Probably doesn't matter because he'll probably be taken before 9 anyway.

[Excessive Egotist]

I think he has alot more upside than a traditional C and a higher ceiling than Poeltl but it'll take a couple years to reach it. Probably doesn't matter because he'll probably be taken before 9 anyway.


Okay. We see the player differently. I think he is bad pick at 13. Mid to late teens seems appropriate to me, given his age. Otherwise, I'd slot him in the 20s. Do you think he can guard in space or will teams be forced to use drop coverage whenever he is on the floor. Perhaps, I should re-watch his defensive clips.

[John B]

Would be a baaad trade to deal Poetl + 20 for the 13th pick ( i think that Vassell, Murray, KJ or Poetl in order to move a few spots is a bad way to think).

I think sometimes people overestimates the draft tough i really think they are good players.

It depends who the Spurs are targeting. At 13, Eason seems available which is a position in need of a bigger body. Additionally, Spurs could try to move Poeltl and his limitations before he gets expensive and get a value for him.

There are opportunities in this draft with teams trying to “win now” and could need a Poeltl, Keldon, Richardson instead of a rookie that needs developing. I don’t see any Spurs player as untouchable if the return is good.

[mo7888]

Okay. We see the player differently. I think he is bad pick at 13. Mid to late teens seems appropriate to me, given his age. Otherwise, I'd slot him in the 20s. Do you think he can guard in space or will teams be forced to use drop coverage whenever he is on the floor. Perhaps, I should re-watch his defensive clips.

I don't think guarding in space will be an issue for him. I've got him 8 overall on my board.

[Excessive Egotist]

I don't think guarding in space will be an issue for him. I've got him 8 overall on my board.

Well, if you're right and he can switch up top, your assessment seems fair. At this point, I believe a big must be able to space or put a lot of pressure on rim as lob threat & handle switches in order to justify a selection in the top 10.

[exstatic]

maybe for Eason, hard to know but for the Hornets Keldon doesn't make too much sense with Bridges already there.

…and PJ Washington. The role of undersized PF is already filled.

[mo7888]

Well, if you're right and he can switch up top, your assessment seems fair. At this point, I believe a big must be able to space or put a lot of pressure on rim as lob threat & handle switches in order to justify a selection in the top 10.

I agree...those attributes are part of the reason I have Williams lower than him...#17 on my board

[CGD]

I think he has alot more upside than a traditional C and a higher ceiling than Poeltl but it'll take a couple years to reach it. Probably doesn't matter because he'll probably be taken before 9 anyway.

I agree he’ll go in Top 10. Who ahead of us do you think would take Duren?

[mo7888]

I agree he’ll go in Top 10. Who ahead of us do you think would take Duren?

Detroit or another team trading ahead of us..

[Ariel]

Charlotte needs a center, that’s where this conversation starts… not Richardson.
Charlotte needs veteran players to support Lamelo and Bridges, and Richardson's defense and shooting would fit in pretty well. Also, if D'Antoni is hired as a coach you can forget about them going for Poeltl, while they might still find value in Richardson.

[ragas]

ST on draft day is like a kid on Christmas who wants all the new shiny toys just to kick them into a corner after a few weeks, because they aren’t new & shiny anymore, and cry for more new shiny toys.