Anyone here hurt by rising interest rates/recession yet?

[CosmicCowboy]

Just curious and polling.

[ElNono]

what recession? Let's circle back in 2-3 months once we have a terrible jobs report...

[Dirks_Finale]

Are you kidding? This place is full of millionaire, liberal doctors and lawyers.

[hater]

Are you kidding? This place is full of millionaire, liberal doctors and lawyers.

:lmao

[hater]

Im on the market for another investment property and see house prices are falling in general. Probably people desperate to sell right now before it really crashes down.

Ill wait for that crash tbqh :lol. Its coming

[hater]

Oh and pandemic is over. Stop asking for tips for everything.

Im done tipping when picking up my own food or for every stupid thing. Like extra uber tips.

[Winehole23]

big timing rich guy worried the gravy train might derail, you hate to see it

[CosmicCowboy]

Interesting article on the bond market

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-questions-are-swirling-about-who-will-buy-more-than-31-trillion-of-u-s-debt-and-at-what-price-11665507637

To put that in perspective, 5% interest on US debt would be 1.55 TRILLION dollars a year.

Total tax receipts this year are 4.8 trillion, so interest will eat almost 1/3 of total tax receipts..

[CosmicCowboy]

big timing rich guy worried the gravy train might derail, you hate to see it

Typical angry/jealous response from Whinehole to a legitimate economic question. You hate to see it.

[Winehole23]

Typical angry/jealous response from Whinehole to a legitimate economic question. You hate to see it.projection and name calling, so childish.

it's amusing you think others envy you just because you brag about money.

[CosmicCowboy]

projection and name calling, so childish.

it's amusing you think others envy you just because you brag about money.

So why the angry, bitchy response to a legitimate question?

[hater]

So why the angry, bitchy response to a legitimate question?

I think winetroll rides his bike to his waiter job.

You have your answer right there :lmao

[Winehole23]

So why the angry, bitchy response to a legitimate question?I'm not angry but amused. It's understandable you're touchy about getting teased, you conservatives are a pack of crybullies.

[Blake]

Yes, my butler have to sell his home up in Aspen. May have to downgrade the G8 to a used G7

[ChumpDumper]

CC trolling.

[Winehole23]

when rich folks start to grip about money oh dang, that's serious, that's a legitimate question

:lol

[Winehole23]

Interesting article on the bond market

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-questions-are-swirling-about-who-will-buy-more-than-31-trillion-of-u-s-debt-and-at-what-price-11665507637

To put that in perspective, 5% interest on US debt would be 1.55 TRILLION dollars a year.

Total tax receipts this year are 4.8 trillion, so interest will eat almost 1/3 of total tax receipts..Your concern about this was totally as absent when the orange guy was president and blowing up the debt. Funny how your fiscal hawkishness always comes back when the Democrats are in charge.

[CosmicCowboy]

Your concern about this was totally as absent when the orange guy was president and blowing up the debt. Funny how your fiscal hawkishness always comes back when the Democrats are in charge.

Damn you are an angry little bitch. I didn't say a fucking thing about it being Democrats fault.

[CosmicCowboy]

So it's not OK to post legitimate economic content on a so called "political" forum?

What the fuck is wrong with you people?

[ChumpDumper]

We might be less suspicious of your motives had you started off in good faith by answering your own question.

[Winehole23]

Damn you are an angry little bitch. I didn't say a fucking thing about it being Democrats fault.the trend of posting tells, you don't worry about debt/deficit when Rs are in charge.

[CosmicCowboy]

the trend of posting tells, you don't worry about debt/deficit when Rs are in charge.

As usual, you are wrong and full of shit. Both political parties are wasteful spenders.

[Winehole23]

The underlying issue is QE and hedging with derivatives. It makes the whole financial system more fragile. We've become addicted to cheap credit and monetary support for financial assets.


After two years of quantitative easing (QE) – when central banks buy long-term bonds from the private sector and issue liquid reserves in return – central banks around the world have begun to shrink their balance sheets, and liquidity seems to have vanished in the space of just a few months. Why has quantitative tightening (QT) produced that result? In a recent paper (https://faculty.chicagobooth.edu/-/media/faculty/raghuram-rajan/research/papers/acrs_liquidity_all_v36.pdf) co-authored with Rahul Chauhan and Sascha Steffen (which we presented at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City’s Jackson Hole conference in August), we show that QE may be quite difficult to reverse, because the financial sector has become dependent on easy liquidity.

This dependency arises in multiple ways. Commercial banks, which typically hold the reserves supplied by central banks during QE, finance their own asset purchases with short-term demand deposits that represent potent claims on their liquidity in tough times. Moreover, although advanced-economy central-bank reserves are the safest assets on the planet, they offer low returns, so commercial banks have created additional revenue streams by offering reserve-backed liquidity insurance to others. This generally takes the form of higher credit card limits for households, contingent credit lines to asset managers and non-financial corporations, and broker-dealer relationships that promise to help speculators meet margin calls (demands for additional cash collateral).

The speculators are not limited to hedge funds, as we recently learned in the UK. Rather, they also include normally staid pension funds that have engaged in so-called liability-driven investment: To compensate for the QE-induced low return on long-term gilts, they increased the risk profile of their other assets, taking on more leverage, and hedging any interest risk with derivatives. While their hedged position ensured that an interest-rate increase would have an equal impact on their asset and liability values, it also generated margin calls on their derivative positions. Lacking the cash to meet these calls, they were reliant on bankers with spare liquidity for support.

In sum, during periods of QE, the financial sector generates substantial potential claims on liquidity, effectively eating up much of the issued reserves. The quantity of spare liquidity is thus much smaller than that of issued reserves, which can become a big problem in the event of a shock, such as a government-induced scare.

Our study also finds that, in the case of the United States, QT makes conditions even tighter still, because the financial sector does not quickly shrink the claims that it has issued on liquidity, even as the central bank takes back reserves. This, too, makes the system vulnerable to shocks – an accident waiting to happen. During the last episode of QT in the US, even relatively small, unexpected increases in liquidity demand – such as a surge in the Treasury’s account at the Fed – caused massive dislocation in Treasury repo markets. That is exactly what happened in September 2019, prompting the Fed to resume its liquidity injections.

The onset of the pandemic in March 2020 was an even larger liquidity shock, with corporations drawing down credit lines from banks and speculators seeking help in meeting margin calls. Central banks duly flooded the system with reserves. One can only imagine the scale of the intervention that would have been needed if the shock had been as bad as the one in 2008. An even deeper crisis would have prompted some depositors to dash for cash, causing some banks to hoard spare liquidity to meet unexpected claims on the deposits they had amassed during the boom times.
Put differently, the larger the scale and the longer the duration of QE, the greater the liquidity that financial markets become accustomed to, and the longer it will take for central banks to normalize their balance sheets. But since financial, real, and fiscal shocks do not respect central banks’ timetables, they often will force fresh central-bank interventions, as we saw in the UK.https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/central-bank-quantitative-tightening-leaves-financial-system-vulnerable-to-shocks-by-raghuram-rajan-and-viral-acharya-2022-10

[Winehole23]

As usual, you are wrong and full of shit. Both political parties are wasteful spenders.you may worry, but you post about it here approximately never when Rs hold the reins of power. trend of posting tells.

[Winehole23]

Monetary policymakers thus find themselves in a very difficult position. A central bank may need to raise rates to reduce inflation. But if it also must simultaneously supply liquidity to stabilize government bond markets, it risks sending a mixed message about its policy stance – not to mention raising concerns that it has become a direct financier of the government. Not only does this complicate policy communication; it also could prolong the fight against inflation.

While central banks have always had a duty to provide emergency liquidity, doing so on a sustained, large-scale basis is an entirely different kettle of fish. Our findings suggest that QE will be quite difficult to reverse, not least because QT itself increases the system’s vulnerability to shocks. While the BOE deserves praise for riding to the rescue, central banks more generally need to reflect on their own role in making the system so vulnerable.

[CosmicCowboy]

We might be less suspicious of your motives had you started off in good faith by answering your own question.

To allay your "suspicions" I will be happy to discuss my personal experience. On a personal level I am down several hundred thousand in my 401K and stocks I own but don't plan to panic and sell. Business wise, I had to raise rates this year because of overhead cost increases and across the board raises for all employees to match inflation. So far it hasn't negatively impacted sales and for at least the next 6 months have enough work booked to be profitable. I do anticipate further across the board economic degradation in 2023 and will be holding cash in the company assuming customers will be tightening spending in the recession.

[CosmicCowboy]

you may worry, but you post about it here approximately never when Rs hold the reins of power. trend of posting tells.

I do consistently post about the dangers of inflation and federal debt , but you are too busy with your angry ankle biting to notice.

[Winehole23]

I do consistently post about the dangers of inflation and federal debt , but you are too busy with your angry ankle biting to notice.lol ok

[Trill Clinton]

yes i've been struggling and could use a little help, CC. had to sell our small business and car just to stay afloat. times are hard for me but i'm doing uber and selling plasma until I get bacc on my feet.

[TSA]

yes i've been struggling and could use a little help, CC. had to sell our small business and car just to stay afloat. times are hard for me but i'm doing uber and selling plasma until I get bacc on my feet.

lol fam

[SpursforSix]

To allay your "suspicions" I will be happy to discuss my personal experience. On a personal level I am down several hundred thousand in my 401K and stocks I own but don't plan to panic and sell. Business wise, I had to raise rates this year because of overhead cost increases and across the board raises for all employees to match inflation. So far it hasn't negatively impacted sales and for at least the next 6 months have enough work booked to be profitable. I do anticipate further across the board economic degradation in 2023 and will be holding cash in the company assuming customers will be tightening spending in the recession.

LOL. Cosmic Cowboy with his one employee that washes his junk cars before he sells them for $500 profit per car.

[Winehole23]

1579839442692739074

[CosmicCowboy]

EMAIL
ECONOMYU.S. ECONOMY
U.S. Supplier Prices Increased in September, Maintaining Pressure on Inflation
Producer-price index gains remain high but have eased from steep advances recorded earlier this year

The producer-price index can reflect price trends that eventually affect consumer-level inflation.
PHOTO: AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES
By Gabriel T. RubinFollow
Updated Oct. 12, 2022 12:20 pm ET

SAVE

PRINT

TEXT

U.S. suppliers raised their prices in September after cutting them the prior two months, possibly indicating some inflation pressures are picking up again.

The producer-price index, which measures the prices that suppliers are charging businesses and other customers, rose a seasonally adjusted 0.4% last month compared with a revised 0.2% decrease in August, the Labor Department said on Wednesday. Higher food prices and home-heating costs drove the increase.

“Price pressures remain elevated and volatile, particularly for food and gas, given the ongoing war in Ukraine and ongoing supply chain disruptions,” said Matthew Martin, U.S. economist at Oxford Economics.

The PPI rose 8.5% in September from a year before, down from its 8.7% annual increase in August and 11.3% in June.

The so-called core PPI—which excludes the often volatile categories of food, energy and supplier margins—also climbed by 0.4% from a month earlier, an acceleration from the 0.2% rise in August. Core PPI increased 5.6% in September compared with a year ago, matching the August annual increase.

The PPI can reflect price trends that eventually affect consumer-level inflation, since businesses eventually pass on their costs, or savings, to consumers. An easing of producer-price increases could point to an eventual ebbing of consumer-price inflation, which is running close to a four-decade high.

Along with being a helpful tool for forecasting inflation, producer-price indexes are often used as the basis for automatic adjustments in supplier contracts. The Bureau of Labor Statistics estimates that trillions of dollars in long-term contracts are pegged to versions of the PPI.

NEWSLETTER SIGN-UP

Real Time Economics

The latest economic news, analysis and data curated weekdays by WSJ's Jeffrey Sparshott.


Preview

Subscribe
Investors and the Federal Reserve are watching for signs that persistently high inflation is easing. U.S. consumer prices overall rose more slowly in August from a year earlier. But core prices, which exclude energy and food items, increased sharply from the prior month, showing that inflation pressures remained strong and stubborn.

Hiring lost some momentum in September, but remained strong, with the September unemployment rate of 3.5% matching half-century lows. Wage growth has begun to slow, with average hourly earnings rising 5% in September from a year before—still rapid but below August’s 5.2% pace and the slowest annual rate since December 2021.

Prices have begun to fall for some goods and services, including commodities, freight shipping and housing. Those declines have led some Fed watchers to warn that Fed officials risk tightening financial conditions more than necessary to tame inflation.

“Leading indicators of inflation and macroeconomic forces strongly point to lower inflation ahead,” said David Kelly, chief global strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management. “They could inflict an unnecessary recession on American families, while doing little to improve productivity or living standards.”

[CosmicCowboy]

LOL. Cosmic Cowboy with his one employee that washes his junk cars before he sells them for $500 profit per car.

vivid imagination. I'm not in the car business.

[Winehole23]

U.S. suppliers raised their prices in September after cutting them the prior two months, possibly indicating some inflation pressures are picking up again.

The producer-price index, which measures the prices that suppliers are charging businesses and other customers, rose a seasonally adjusted 0.4% last month compared with a revised 0.2% decrease in August, the Labor Department said on Wednesday. Higher food prices and home-heating costs drove the increase.

“Price pressures remain elevated and volatile, particularly for food and gas, given the ongoing war in Ukraine and ongoing supply chain disruptions,” said Matthew Martin, U.S. economist at Oxford Economics.


“Leading indicators of inflation and macroeconomic forces strongly point to lower inflation ahead,” said David Kelly, chief global strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management. “They could inflict an unnecessary recession on American families, while doing little to improve productivity or living standards.”article is all over the place.

is this more doomcasting about inflation, or do you think the Fed is overcooking the goose, as suggested at the end?

or neither?

tbh the article gives support for a variety of off the rack takes. what's yours?

[CosmicCowboy]

article is all over the place.

is this more doomcasting about inflation, or do you think the Fed is overcooking the goose, as suggested at the end?

or neither?

tbh the article gives support for a variety of off the rack takes. what's yours?

It's from the WSJ. It's obviously trying to give multiple opinions for information. I clipped it assuming a lot of you don't have subscriptions. Sorry it offended you. Are you actually able to have rational discussions or do you just do snarky, ankle biting attack posts?

[pgardn]

It's from the WSJ. It's obviously trying to give multiple opinions for information. I clipped it assuming a lot of you don't have subscriptions. Sorry it offended you. Are you actually able to have rational discussions or do you just do snarky, ankle biting attack posts?

I think thats what he kind of said.
so what is your stance on the fed actions so far and what do you wish for the future concerning fed actions?

Thanks for the article.

[SpursforSix]

vivid imagination. I'm not in the car business.

I thought that was what initiated your posting of a pic where you had like a handful of twenty dollar bills.
Regardless, you're a blowhard that probably has less money than half the people in here. You want to portray yourself as knowledgeable in finance and economics but probably have some kind of inferiority complex because you never finished college. Which is fine. You just don't need to try to make up for it. You're clearly dumb but want to offset that by showing how much money you have. We all know people like this. See them everyday. Although the ones I know that truly have money don't brag about it. They're down to earth hardworking dudes that built something from nothing. But they don't feel the need to brag about it like you do. The fact that you do brag is a sign that you feel inadequate. For some strange reason, you have to validate yourself to a bunch of people on a message board. And that you base your personal success on some bank account number. Regardless of how shitty a human being your are. You never admit you're wrong which is pretty telling of the type of person your are. My guess is that you've gone through a couple of divorces and are alienated from multiple kids.

[CosmicCowboy]

I think thats what he kind of said.
so what is your stance on the fed actions so far and what do you wish for the future concerning fed actions?

Thanks for the article.

I share the fear that the Fed will overcorrect. Interest rate actions always have a multi-month lag in results. We are already seeing big corporations making multi-thousand layoffs, especially in the tech sector. It could be a bloodbath in 2023.

[Winehole23]

It's from the WSJ. It's obviously trying to give multiple opinions for information. I clipped it assuming a lot of you don't have subscriptions. Sorry it offended you. Are you actually able to have rational discussions or do you just do snarky, ankle biting attack posts?it doesn't offend me. I just asked you for your own thoughts. it's amusing you think that's an attack.

I can see you just clarified yourself above, so thanks for that.

[CosmicCowboy]

I thought that was what initiated your posting of a pic where you had like a handful of twenty dollar bills.
Regardless, you're a blowhard that probably has less money than half the people in here. You want to portray yourself as knowledgeable in finance and economics but probably have some kind of inferiority complex because you never finished college. Which is fine. You just don't need to try to make up for it. You're clearly dumb but want to offset that by showing how much money you have. We all know people like this. See them everyday. Although the ones I know that truly have money don't brag about it. They're down to earth hardworking dudes that built something from nothing. But they don't feel the need to brag about it like you do. The fact that you do brag is a sign that you feel inadequate. For some strange reason, you have to validate yourself to a bunch of people on a message board. And that you base your personal success on some bank account number. Regardless of how shitty a human being your are. You never admit you're wrong which is pretty telling of the type of person your are. My guess is that you've gone through a couple of divorces and are alienated from multiple kids.

Cry me a river Spurt. As usual you are full of shit.

[CosmicCowboy]

See post above yours, Whinehole. I have no problem answering reasonable questions when they are aren't accompanied by your ankle biting.

[Leetonidas]

My portfolio has taken a hit ofc but other than that and my grocery bill being more, no biggie for me. I worked from home before the pandemic began so the gas situation never was an issue for me. Life is good tbh

[pgardn]

I share the fear that the Fed will overcorrect. Interest rate actions always have a multi-month lag in results. We are already seeing big corporations making multi-thousand layoffs, especially in the tech sector. It could be a bloodbath in 2023.

tough job being on the fed

There are clearly some basic rules. but...
Ultimately it gets parsed down to human behavior.
I say good luck on that.

Ultimately people who write about the future of markets etc are writing opinion pieces. difficult stuff

[Winehole23]

See post above yours, Whinehole. I have no problem answering reasonable questions when they are aren't accompanied by your ankle biting.you're letting a personal grudge of some kind throw you off balance emotionally, as evidenced by your consistently touchy replies. it's understandable.

[CosmicCowboy]

My portfolio has taken a hit ofc but other than that and my grocery bill being more, no biggie for me. I worked from home before the pandemic began so the gas situation never was an issue for me. Life is good tbh

Glad to hear it. I read an article the other day that discussed the fact that as big employers are discovering that certain jobs could be done remotely because of covid (work at home) they are realizing they can offshore those same jobs and save a ton of money. Are you concerned about that?

[SpursforSix]

Cry me a river Spurt. As usual you are full of shit.

LOL. No...I got you pegged. It's not hard to figure out.

[CosmicCowboy]

you're letting a personal grudge of some kind throw you off balance emotionally, as evidenced by your consistently touchy replies. it's understandable.

pot/kettle/black

[CosmicCowboy]

LOL. No...I got you pegged. It's not hard to figure out.

LOL.

You are so ridiculously off base it's hilarious. I won't go through your bitter little post item by item and refute it but you are literally 100% wrong on every attack guess you posted.

[Leetonidas]

Glad to hear it. I read an article the other day that discussed the fact that as big employers are discovering that certain jobs could be done remotely because of covid (work at home) they are realizing they can offshore those same jobs and save a ton of money. Are you concerned about that?

Not at all tbh. The type of work i do cannot be outsourced. And as I said my job was already WFH before the pandemic ever was a thing so not too worried about it. If I worked as a call center operator or something I might be more concerned:lol

[Winehole23]

pot/kettle/blackthanks for admitting you go full emo whenever I reply to you.

:tu

[CosmicCowboy]

thanks for admitting you go full emo whenever I reply to you.

:tu

Simply responding to you going full Chihuahua ankle biter like you do.

[Winehole23]

Simply responding to you going full Chihuahua ankle biter like you do.thanks for underscoring my point

:tu

[SpursforSix]

LOL.

You are so ridiculously off base it's hilarious. I won't go through your bitter little post item by item and refute it but you are literally 100% wrong on every attack guess you posted.

LOL. No one believes that here. You're a blowhard wannabe clown that's resentful about something and you feel the need to put your imagined wealth out here on SpursTalk. I don't think anyone else on this site has ever been so desperate to make sure everyone else thinks that you have money. And that anyone gives a shit. I mean...you felt the need to take a picture of your hand holding some money and then post it. It's gayer than calftats.

[CosmicCowboy]

LOL. No one believes that here. You're a blowhard wannabe clown that's resentful about something and you feel the need to put your imagined wealth out here on SpursTalk. I don't think anyone else on this site has ever been so desperate to make sure everyone else thinks that you have money. And that anyone gives a shit. I mean...you felt the need to take a picture of your hand holding some money and then post it. It's gayer than calftats.

I didn't realize I had to pretend to be poor in here so losers like you wouldn't make up crazy fantasy shit about me. The money thing you are so fixated about was joking around with Trill who had done the same thing. It obviously offended your pussy ass. Sorry you are so insecure about money.

[spurraider21]

personally i've been fine. was fortunate not to have any work interruptions (i had already been working remotely across the country for nearly a year before covid). and while the cost of some consumer goods have gone up, i've been fortunate to be living in an area with a pretty low cost of living (compared to LA, at least), so its actually been pretty easy despite living off a single income (and cash-flowing most of wife's tuition). also was very lucky that we bought our current home in october 2020 when rates were still virtually non-existent. we also bought our most recent car basically right before those costs started skyrocketing, so we've had some pretty good luck/fortune when it comes to timing as well

401k has taken a hit but given my age thats not really a tangible loss at this time

[spurraider21]

LOL. No one believes that here. You're a blowhard wannabe clown that's resentful about something and you feel the need to put your imagined wealth out here on SpursTalk. I don't think anyone else on this site has ever been so desperate to make sure everyone else thinks that you have money. And that anyone gives a shit. I mean...you felt the need to take a picture of your hand holding some money and then post it. It's gayer than calftats.
i dno... splits posted his W2 iirc :lol

[spurraider21]

yes i've been struggling and could use a little help, CC. had to sell our small business and car just to stay afloat. times are hard for me but i'm doing uber and selling plasma until I get bacc on my feet.
damn even with all that passive crypo income, brah?

[spurraider21]

I thought that was what initiated your posting of a pic where you had like a handful of twenty dollar bills.
Regardless, you're a blowhard that probably has less money than half the people in here. You want to portray yourself as knowledgeable in finance and economics but probably have some kind of inferiority complex because you never finished college. Which is fine. You just don't need to try to make up for it. You're clearly dumb but want to offset that by showing how much money you have. We all know people like this. See them everyday. Although the ones I know that truly have money don't brag about it. They're down to earth hardworking dudes that built something from nothing. But they don't feel the need to brag about it like you do. The fact that you do brag is a sign that you feel inadequate. For some strange reason, you have to validate yourself to a bunch of people on a message board. And that you base your personal success on some bank account number. Regardless of how shitty a human being your are. You never admit you're wrong which is pretty telling of the type of person your are. My guess is that you've gone through a couple of divorces and are alienated from multiple kids.
should have opened this thread earlier tbh... missed a nice shaqondudley.gif here

[CosmicCowboy]

should have opened this thread earlier tbh... missed a nice shaqondudley.gif here

Except he tripped and fell on his face.

[CosmicCowboy]

personally i've been fine. was fortunate not to have any work interruptions (i had already been working remotely across the country for nearly a year before covid). and while the cost of some consumer goods have gone up, i've been fortunate to be living in an area with a pretty low cost of living (compared to LA, at least), so its actually been pretty easy despite living off a single income (and cash-flowing most of wife's tuition). also was very lucky that we bought our current home in october 2020 when rates were still virtually non-existent. we also bought our most recent car basically right before those costs started skyrocketing, so we've had some pretty good luck/fortune when it comes to timing as well

401k has taken a hit but given my age thats not really a tangible loss at this time

Glad to hear it. Buying your house in 2020 was brilliant. You will make money every year when you have an asset appreciating at 10% a year that you are paying 2.3% interest on and deducting the interest.

[spurraider21]

Glad to hear it. Buying your house in 2020 was brilliant. You will make money every year when you have an asset appreciating at 10% a year that you are paying 2.3% interest on and deducting the interest.
yeah i definitely had good fortune when it comes to timing... but honesty moving from los angeles to charlottesville while keeping the same job/pay was always going to make things pretty easy. thats been the main thing... i wouldnt have been able to afford buying a comparable home in LA. property prices, car insurance/registration... things like that are just drastically cheaper here compared to what i had been accustomed to

[leemajors]

yeah i definitely had good fortune when it comes to timing... but honesty moving from los angeles to charlottesville while keeping the same job/pay was always going to make things pretty easy. thats been the main thing... i wouldnt have been able to afford buying a comparable home in LA

That's great they kept you at the same pay, a lot of places would have adjusted it for lower cost of living.

[spurraider21]

That's great they kept you at the same pay, a lot of places would have adjusted it for lower cost of living.
i'd probably never work for an employer (or continue to work for one) who tried to pull shit like that. my pay should be related to the value i bring to the firm, not how much they think i need to skate by.

to be fair, there could have been a rationale that by living across the country, i wouldnt be able to make as many in-person appearances and would need people to cover for me... and that could reduce my value, but realistically, most court appearances short of trial, at least in california, could be done telephonically even before covid. in a post-covid world, damn near everything, including depositions, mediations, etc, are all being done virtually now, so where i live is basically immaterial. i did have to be flown in for a trial once, but in the scheme of things thats small potatoes

[CosmicCowboy]

i'd probably never work for an employer (or continue to work for one) who tried to pull shit like that. my pay should be related to the value i bring to the firm, not how much they think i need to skate by.

to be fair, there could have been a rationale that by living across the country, i wouldnt be able to make as many in-person appearances and would need people to cover for me... and that could reduce my value, but realistically, most court appearances short of trial, at least in california, could be done telephonically even before covid. in a post-covid world, damn near everything, including depositions, mediations, etc, are all being done virtually now, so where i live is basically immaterial. i did have to be flown in for a trial once, but in the scheme of things thats small potatoes

What kind of law do you do? My son is in intellectual property, corporate litigation. Mostly in LA but back and forth to NY. Some international stuff too.

[spurraider21]

What kind of law do you do? My son is in intellectual property, corporate litigation. Mostly in LA but back and forth to NY. Some international stuff too.
somewhat of a mixed bag but mostly employment (some plaintiff work, mostly defendant), or policy disputes (mostly premium disputes over work comp policies)

[ElNono]

Are you kidding? This place is full of millionaire, liberal doctors and lawyers.

Sorry you made poor monetary decisions in your life. CC will be happy to give you a loan if you need one, tbh

[Trill Clinton]

damn even with all that passive crypo income, brah?

had to exhaust all crypto savings too. i'm hurting out here.

[SpursforSix]

I didn't realize I had to pretend to be poor in here so losers like you wouldn't make up crazy fantasy shit about me. The money thing you are so fixated about was joking around with Trill who had done the same thing. It obviously offended your pussy ass. Sorry you are so insecure about money.

LOL. More than half your posts are rooted in you wanting to show people how much money you have or how smart you perceive yourself to be. Just like starting this thread without even addressing your own situation. Whether I'm a millionaire or a pauper, I'll still call you out on being a pompous blowhard. But I don't really feel the need to share my financial situation with anyone on here because 1) I'm not trying to impress anyone on this board and 2) no one on this board gives a shit

[Leetonidas]

had to exhaust all crypto savings too. i'm hurting out here.

Sorry to hear that man. we'll bounce back though tbh

[vy65]

There's no question that the Fed has completely fucked this situation up. The data it uses comes from the Bureau of Labor Statistics -- which compiles its "data" by "by interviewing respondents about their expenditures, income, and characteristics. The U.S. Census Bureau selects the samples of household addresses and collects the data under contract with BLS." So this "data" isn't actually tied to actual facts, e.g., whether rents, consumer goods, etc.... have actually gone up. It's based on interviews. This is like using an online CNN Election poll to set monetary policy.

[ElNono]

You know the Fed is going to increase rates again. If you get caught with your pants down, it's on you...

[SpursforSix]

You know the Fed is going to increase rates again. If you get caught with your pants down, it's on you...

Tell that to the tens of millions that have no clue how this shit works. And even if they did, they don't have the financial means to offset it in the market.

Wait...you were being sarcastic I'm guessing.

[CosmicCowboy]

You know the Fed is going to increase rates again. If you get caught with your pants down, it's on you...

I wouldn't be surprised if they did 100 basic points in November. 30 year mortgage rates are about to blow through 7% with no end in sight. Housing market is gonna take a big dump in 2023.

[SpursforSix]

I wouldn't be surprised if they did 100 basic points in November. 30 year mortgage rates are about to blow through 7% with no end in sight. Housing market is gonna take a big dump in 2023.

https://media1.giphy.com/media/eH2uOQEmvcqcqgPoH3/200w.gif?cid=82a1493b28wjw8ifrqu5d6uzbztmy30fdf3i8 vwosr6maigo&rid=200w.gif&ct=g

[SnakeBoy]

Just curious and polling.

Debt free so no. I'm earning 2.75% on my cash account so that's a nice change.

As far as investments, I sold all my longs about 2 years ago. Swinging in 2021 was good and 2022 has been great. Mostly from Occidental Petroleum, Buffet putting a floor on it has made it the easiest swing trade ever. Total return up to 143% realized gain not counting this week's action. Taxes are gonna be ridiculous but whatever.

My advice remains the same...
https://www.spurstalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=289825&p=10469897&highlight=nimble#post10469897

[CosmicCowboy]

https://media1.giphy.com/media/eH2uOQEmvcqcqgPoH3/200w.gif?cid=82a1493b28wjw8ifrqu5d6uzbztmy30fdf3i8 vwosr6maigo&rid=200w.gif&ct=g

it auto corrected on my phone and I didn't catch it. Thanks. I typed basis.

[Trill Clinton]

Sorry to hear that man. we'll bounce back though tbh

I was bullshitting lol. I still got the diamond hands.

[Leetonidas]

I was bullshitting lol. I still got the diamond hands.

Good to hear :toast

[MultiTroll]

Evil SEC and it's amoral little prick leader Monty Burns, aka compromised Gary Gensler
https://assets.euromoneydigital.com/dims4/default/d12f6f1/2147483647/strip/true/crop/960x504+0+30/resize/1200x630!/quality/90/?url=http:%2F%2Feuromoney-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2F4e%2Fc2%2Fff532dff4b fb9b124c3463499de2%2Fgary-gensler-sec-fist-reuters-960.jpg



Are phucking with my XRP/Ripple investment. But I still plan on coming out on top Mid 23 or whenever their bogus lawsuit gets tossed.

[boutons_deux]

oligarchy's ATM the Fed wants to kill 2 - 3 M (low end) jobs, 5-6% unemployment

It's like Repugs invading innocnet but oil-rich Iraq to punish Taliban/Afghanistan

Fed Critics Say New CPI Data Shows Rate Hikes Can't Stop 'Rampant Corporate Profiteering'

"The Fed's overly aggressive actions are

shoving our economy to the brink of a devastating recession," said one economist.

https://www.commondreams.org/news/2022/10/13/fed-critics-say-new-cpi-data-shows-rate-hikes-cant-stop-rampant-corporate

The Fed, rigged like the rest of the economy for Capital against Labor, punishes innocent Labor, while ignoring, protecting guilty Capital.

[ElNono]

Tell that to the tens of millions that have no clue how this shit works. And even if they did, they don't have the financial means to offset it in the market.

Wait...you were being sarcastic I'm guessing.

I'm talking to those that do have the means, yet they complain as this wasn't being telegraphed for months.

[ElNono]

I wouldn't be surprised if they did 100 basic points in November. 30 year mortgage rates are about to blow through 7% with no end in sight. Housing market is gonna take a big dump in 2023.

That's just being melodramatic. Of course there's an end in sight, that's why it's being done in the first place. Once the economy cools off some and inflation is back to the usual ~2% annual, we'll resume as usual.

[CosmicCowboy]

That's just being melodramatic. Of course there's an end in sight, that's why it's being done in the first place. Once the economy cools off some and inflation is back to the usual ~2% annual, we'll resume as usual.

I have seen this before. The first house I bought when I was 22 I paid points to buy the interest rate down to 14%.

[CosmicCowboy]

Also been through France style gas shortages. Remember getting in 1/2 mile lines to fill up on "my day" to get gas. Sadly my daily driver at that time was an L82 Vette that got like 11 miles to the gallon on a good day if I was careful not to romp and stomp it.

[ElNono]

Also been through France style gas shortages. Remember getting in 1/2 mile lines to fill up on "my day" to get gas. Sadly my daily driver at that time was an L82 Vette that got like 11 miles to the gallon on a good day if I was careful not to romp and stomp it.

Thankfully we have other options now...

[vy65]

You know the Fed is going to increase rates again. If you get caught with your pants down, it's on you...

That’s beside the point. Of course the fed is going to raise rates. The issue isn’t whether or not there’s going to be another hike. The issue is whether the fed’s doing so is warranted. There’s a volume of data and a slew of experts who have called the fed out for not paying attention to accurate data (lol opinion surveys) and whether it’s even in a position to affect supply-side issues — which have an actual nexus to inflation’s cause than the ham-fisted use of interest rates to tamper demand.

CC is right to (at least indirectly) criticize the fed. No one can credibly argue that it hasn’t completely fucked this situation up.

[Winehole23]

That’s beside the point. Of course the fed is going to raise rates. The issue isn’t whether or not there’s going to be another hike. The issue is whether the fed’s doing so is warranted. There’s a volume of data and a slew of experts who have called the fed out for not paying attention to accurate data (lol opinion surveys) and whether it’s even in a position to affect supply-side issues — which have an actual nexus to inflation’s cause than the ham-fisted use of interest rates to tamper demand.

CC is right to (at least indirectly) criticize the fed. No one can credibly argue that it hasn’t completely fucked this situation up."the only way to tamp down inflation is to crush demand and increase unemployment"

[vy65]

"the only way to tamp down inflation is to crush demand and increase unemployment"

That’s what the fed is doing. It’s literally looking for a rise in unemployment to start backing off rate increases. This is a particularly stupid take.

[Winehole23]

That’s what the fed is doing. It’s literally looking for a rise in unemployment to start backing off rate increases. This is a particularly stupid take.I think we're in agreement here.

[Winehole23]

1580716789981278210

[ElNono]

That’s beside the point. Of course the fed is going to raise rates. The issue isn’t whether or not there’s going to be another hike. The issue is whether the fed’s doing so is warranted. There’s a volume of data and a slew of experts who have called the fed out for not paying attention to accurate data (lol opinion surveys) and whether it’s even in a position to affect supply-side issues — which have an actual nexus to inflation’s cause than the ham-fisted use of interest rates to tamper demand.

CC is right to (at least indirectly) criticize the fed. No one can credibly argue that it hasn’t completely fucked this situation up.

The 'slew of experts' opinions is no better than the Fed's opinion. Uncontrolled inflation is possibly the most damaging aspect to any economy. It can easily be compared to a regressive tax, which ends up hurting the poor the most. It liquifies salaries. Not to mention all the collateral that comes with losing trust in the value of the currency.

Whether the Fed can affect supply-side or not is immaterial: the Fed has monetary policy as a tool to, at the very least, attempt to mitigate inflationary trends, and it's a tool they'll use (which isn't novel either). It might not be pretty, but arguably it's the only lever they have to try to do something about it.

Monetary policy failed was when we were in deep recession (back in '08), and you couldn't bring interest rates below 0. This is how we ended up with things such as QE.

[Winehole23]

1580678155446398976

[DarrinS]

We're about to find out about how Americans feel about Biden's economy.

[DarrinS]

I'm changing retirement plans because of this clusterfuck.

[Winehole23]

We're about to find out about how Americans feel about Biden's economy.Presidents don't control macroeconomics.

There's been a lot of continuity from Bush to Obama, Obama to Trump and Trump to Biden. The mess we're in has been brewing for 15-20 years. Bill Clinton era financial innovations deserve some credit too, but the lion's share of the risk/fragility was caused by QE and ZIRP.

[DarrinS]

President's don't control macroeconomics.

There's been a lot of continuity from Bush to Obama, Obama to Trump and Trump to Biden. The mess we're in has been brewing for 15-20 years.


Absolute bullshit

[baseline bum]

We're about to find out about how Americans feel about Biden's economy.

I'm sure Biden is to blame for the UK's 10% inflation too amirite?

[Winehole23]

Absolute bullshithow so?

[ElNono]

We're about to find out about how Americans feel about Biden's economy.

How so?

[Winehole23]

I'm changing retirement plans because of this clusterfuck.sorry you planned unwisely, that's on you. do you always blame others for your mistakes?

investing isn't risk free.

[ElNono]

I'm sure Biden is to blame for the UK's 10% inflation too amirite?

He's to blame for COVID and Dennison's stimulus checks as well...

[DarrinS]

sorry you planned unwisely, that's on you. do you always blame others for your mistakes?

investing isn't risk free.

I didn't plan unwisely. This administration is just ass.

[ElNono]

shithole Argentina on pace to hit 100% annual inflation this year. All relative, tbh

[Winehole23]

sorry you planned unwisely, that's on you. do you always blame others for your mistakes?

investing isn't risk free.maybe basing retirement plans on Wall Street returns isn't the most reliable system.

[ElNono]

I didn't plan unwisely. This administration is just ass.

We had inflationary pressure all year. Arguably started last year. But you're changing now? Whose fault is that?

[DarrinS]

shithole Argentina on pace to hit 100% annual inflation this year. All relative, tbh

Who gives AF about that?

[Winehole23]

I didn't plan unwisely. This administration is just ass.the soda straw view agrees with your biases. what a surprise.

[DarrinS]

the soda straw view agrees with your biases. what a surprise.

A lot of people in my age group lost significant wealth under Biden. Professional class - not people delivering wine.

[Winehole23]

How so?being Darrin means never having to back up your bullshit.

[Winehole23]

A lot of people in my age group lost significant wealth under Biden. Professional class - not people delivering wine.tough break, have you considered how your own decisions led you to this point?

the stock market is cyclical. not only is there no guarantee it will constantly go up, it blows up about every 10-15 years.

sounds like you didn't account for the inherent risks.

[baseline bum]

Who gives AF about that?

Biden's fault there

[DarrinS]

being Darrin means never having to back up your bullshit.

My bullshit about to be backed up.

[DarrinS]

tough break, have you considered how your own decisions led you to this point?

the stock market is cyclical. not only is there no guarantee it will constantly go up, it blows up about every 10-15 years.

sounds like you didn't account for the inherent risks.


You do not understand 401k

[baseline bum]

My bullshit about to be backed up.

Like when we were out of the pandemic in May 2020, and then again in October 2020?

[Winehole23]

You do not understand 401kexplain how I don't, profe

[DarrinS]

Like when we were out of the pandemic in May 2020, and then again in October 2020?

Meh, looking back, who was at risk?

[Winehole23]

Like when we were out of the pandemic in May 2020, and then again in October 2020?Darrin is pretty much a weather vane that points at wrong with smug self-assurance.

[Winehole23]

Meh, looking back, who was at risk?socially worthless old people, line cooks and the immunocompromised.

swarthy complected social inferiors, too.

[DarrinS]

Darrin is pretty much a weather vane that points at wrong with smug self-assurance.


And you are one of the last people posting about covid, which nobody cares about.

[Winehole23]

And you are one of the last people posting about covid, which nobody cares about.more famous last words

[DarrinS]

socially worthless old people, line cooks and the immunocompromised

My 75 year old mom is just fine. Had it and no biggie. And cancer survivor.

[baseline bum]

My 75 year old mom is just fine. Had it and no biggie. And cancer survivor.

Good that means no one died from it

[Winehole23]

My 75 year old mom is just fine. Had it and no biggie. And cancer survivor.oh then, who did you mean?

[DarrinS]

oh then, who did you mean?

Exactly

[Winehole23]

(lol stepping on your own dick for a glib comeback)

[baseline bum]

(lol stepping on your own dick for a glib comeback)

Prob confused after the third Southern Comfort.

[Winehole23]

Prob confused after the third Southern Comfort.what a lightweight

[DarrinS]

tough break, have you considered how your own decisions led you to this point?

the stock market is cyclical. not only is there no guarantee it will constantly go up, it blows up about every 10-15 years.

sounds like you didn't account for the inherent risks.


Again doesn't understand 401K or mutual funds.

[DarrinS]

Prob confused after the third Southern Comfort.

Garbage drink

[Winehole23]

Again doesn't understand 401K or mutual funds.explain it for us, profe.

then show your work. how is it all Joe Biden's fault?

[ChumpDumper]

Again doesn't understand 401K or mutual funds.

Explain to us how Biden personally ruined your investment plan and only made you change it almost two years into his administration.

This should be epic.

[ElNono]

Who gives AF about that?

Pointing out your 'hurting' is relative, just that.

[ElNono]

tough break, have you considered how your own decisions led you to this point?

the stock market is cyclical. not only is there no guarantee it will constantly go up, it blows up about every 10-15 years.

sounds like you didn't account for the inherent risks.


Again doesn't understand 401K or mutual funds.

You know you can change your contribution amounts, you can also decide in what to invest, etc?

Who really doesn't understand 401Ks or MFs here?

[ElNono]

Look, as far as the Fed, this is exactly what they did the last time we had runaway inflation, so the argument that they don't know what they're doing or what they're doing is not proven is bunk.

What will eventually be debated ad-nauseum is if they held on to high rates too long or not and at what cost.

[CosmicCowboy]

7 trillion + of QE between the last two administrations is mainly responsible for this inflation bubble. The fed chose to crash dive out of it instead of a gradual glide down as that QE worked its way out of the system. We will know in a couple of years if this was the right approach.

[vy65]

The 'slew of experts' opinions is no better than the Fed's opinion. Uncontrolled inflation is possibly the most damaging aspect to any economy. It can easily be compared to a regressive tax, which ends up hurting the poor the most. It liquifies salaries. Not to mention all the collateral that comes with losing trust in the value of the currency.

Whether the Fed can affect supply-side or not is immaterial: the Fed has monetary policy as a tool to, at the very least, attempt to mitigate inflationary trends, and it's a tool they'll use (which isn't novel either). It might not be pretty, but arguably it's the only lever they have to try to do something about it.

Monetary policy failed was when we were in deep recession (back in '08), and you couldn't bring interest rates below 0. This is how we ended up with things such as QE.

Of course they're better. The Fed isn't using real data to make monetary policy -- it relies on the BLS which doesn't actually provide data on prices. It interviews people on their feelings about prices. It's absurd that the institution that is "in charge" of controlling inflation uses that kinda shit data. The experts I'm referring to are people who are actually monitoring changes in prices. And they've all been saying that prices have been coming down for a while now.

Whether the Fed can affect supply-side issues is material. Supply chains, limited inventories, workforce issues, etc... all directly impact the availability of goods and services. Which is the cause of inflation. We agree that the Fed has a tool to affect inflation - it's ham-fisted, awkward, and wreaking unnecessary and prolonged economic havoc globally.

What have you seen that indicates the Fed's data is reliable or that what it is doing has been economically effective?

[CosmicCowboy]

The supply side stuff has been a real pain in the ass to work through. Lead times on the industrial stuff I deal with have been horrendous and a lot of stuff they won't even tell you when it will be available. A lot of quotes are only good for 5-10 days and I have even got some quotes that are only good till the end of the day. It's a crazy market.

[spurraider21]

I think we're in agreement here.
You’re in agreement about your take being stupid?

[spurraider21]

Meh, looking back, who was at risk?
Over a million Americans died

[spurraider21]

My 75 year old mom is just fine. Had it and no biggie. And cancer survivor.
So why do people get so worked up over cancer? Darrins mom survived it after all

[Winehole23]

You’re in agreement about your take being stupid?I was pointing that we seem to agree about what the Fed is doing. I have no idea why vy65 thinks my take was dumb. Vehement agreement, I guess.

[vy65]

I was pointing that we seem to agree about what the Fed is doing. I have no idea why vy65 thinks my take was dumb. Vehement agreement, I guess.

Your post was opaque, to say the least. The next time you vehemntly agree with me will be the second time.

[Spurminator]

So why do people get so worked up over cancer? Darrins mom survived it after all

Textbook narcissism.

[Winehole23]

Your post was opaque, to say the least. The next time you vehemntly agree with me will be the second time.all good

[ElNono]

Of course they're better. The Fed isn't using real data to make monetary policy -- it relies on the BLS which doesn't actually provide data on prices. It interviews people on their feelings about prices. It's absurd that the institution that is "in charge" of controlling inflation uses that kinda shit data. The experts I'm referring to are people who are actually monitoring changes in prices. And they've all been saying that prices have been coming down for a while now.

Whether the Fed can affect supply-side issues is material. Supply chains, limited inventories, workforce issues, etc... all directly impact the availability of goods and services. Which is the cause of inflation. We agree that the Fed has a tool to affect inflation - it's ham-fisted, awkward, and wreaking unnecessary and prolonged economic havoc globally.

What have you seen that indicates the Fed's data is reliable or that what it is doing has been economically effective?

The last time this happened back in the 70's, this is the tool they used to bring it back into control. It worked. All these so-called 'experts' never actually had to go through this and all they have are theories and opinions. The Fed hasn't just talked about it, but actually have done it.

Mind you, this is the only tool they have. They will be aggressive with it, because hurting certain parts of the economy is less damaging than hurting the economy as a whole (which is what inflation does).

Like I said, the argument really isn't whether they should use this tool, they will. What we're probably going to be discussing non-stop in due time is if they went too far with it or not.

[ElNono]

The supply side stuff has been a real pain in the ass to work through. Lead times on the industrial stuff I deal with have been horrendous and a lot of stuff they won't even tell you when it will be available. A lot of quotes are only good for 5-10 days and I have even got some quotes that are only good till the end of the day. It's a crazy market.

There are contextual reasons for that. From a one in a century event like COVID to now a major conflict. Some of these things will take time to level off, but that doesn't mean you shouldn't try to use the tools available to mitigate inflation in the meantime.

[ElNono]

It should also be noted, in case some people have not, that Russia is feverishly trying to undermine the US Dollar as well (primarily due to sanctions, but in global commerce as well). Which is also another reason you want a strong dollar, and inflation under control.

[Winehole23]

Supply chain issues and greed. The Fed's strategy is from previous wars.


The price drops aren’t materializing because current inflation largely isn’t demand- or labor-driven as it often is during inflationary periods, said Claudia Sahm, a former Fed economist and founder of Sahm Consulting.

“High inflation is not workers’ fault, but the Fed is waging a war on US workers,” Sahm said.

Lael Brainard, Federal Reserve Board vice-chair, even acknowledged the roles of pricing and supply chain disruptions during a speech (https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/brainard20221010a.htm) this week before the National Association for Business Economics. Retail profit margins have increased 20% since the pandemic’s onset, Brainard noted, roughly doubling the 9% increase in average hourly earnings by the sector’s employees.

In the auto sector, margins for vehicles sold at dealerships have increased by more than 180% since February 2020 – about 10 times the rise in the sector’s average hourly earnings, Brainard said.

“The return of retail margins to more normal levels could meaningfully help reduce inflationary pressures in some consumer goods,” she added.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/oct/16/us-inflation-federal-reserve-interest-rate-hikes

[ElNono]

Supply chain issues and greed. The Fed's strategy is from previous wars.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/oct/16/us-inflation-federal-reserve-interest-rate-hikes

There's nothing the Fed can do about this, tbh, so not sure why would anybody be mad with them over this.

What the Fed can do is try to remove excess liquidity from the market, and that's exactly what it's doing.

[boutons_deux]

Fed Critics Say New CPI Data Shows Rate Hikes Can't Stop 'Rampant Corporate Profiteering'

"The Fed's overly aggressive actions are shoving our economy to the brink of a devastating recession," said one economist

https://www.commondreams.org/news/2022/10/13/fed-critics-say-new-cpi-data-shows-rate-hikes-cant-stop-rampant-corporate

[boutons_deux]

Fed kept the rates low too long, and then was too late to attack inflation

attacking workers when the inflation is BigCorp price push

[boutons_deux]

remember that there were $Bs is PPP fraud, esp by big companies, but many smal companies

nearly all that pandemic firehose went to the super rich who increased their wealth by $Ts in the pandemic

fucking rigged county going down the tubes

Med sea off Israel is now boiling gases

Dimon says BigOil must pump more oil, and that Biden has fucked it up

[boutons_deux]

Here’s why the price of groceries keeps rising



https://thehill.com/policy/finance/3688967-heres-why-the-price-of-groceries-keeps-rising

[vy65]

Key Indicator Puts the Chance of Recession at 100%

The economy shrank 1.6% in the first quarter and 0.6% in the second. And inflation hit 8.2% for the latest 12 months.
Many top economists, such as Harvard’s Larry Summers, say the economy is likely to enter a recession this year or next, thanks to the large interest-rate increases from the Federal Reserve.

The economy shrank 1.6% in the first quarter and 0.6% in the second. Consumer prices soared 8.2% in the 12 months through September, and the Fed has lifted interest rates by 3 percentage points since March.

Summers has noted that at any time in the past 60 years when inflation exceeded 4% and unemployment was under 5%, a recession has followed within two years. Unemployment matched a five-decade high of 3.5% in September.

It’s not just top economists who are worried about the possibility of a recession by the end of next year. A total of 69% of Americans feel the same way, according to a July survey by personal-finance website Bankrate.com.

In an ominous sign, more than 2 of every 5 (41%) Americans say they are unprepared to handle such an event. And of that cohort, 31% are doing nothing to prepare.

https://apple.news/ALliwwEZgQOicxoX5AJFYAQ

[vy65]

Democrats are going to get absolutely smoked during midterms. And based on the economy’s poor health, rightfully so.

[ChumpDumper]

Democrats are going to get absolutely smoked during midterms. And based on the economy’s poor health, rightfully so.
What are Republicans going to do for the economy?

[boutons_deux]

Democrats are going to get absolutely smoked during midterms. And based on the economy’s poor health, rightfully so.

What did the Dems do "rightfully" to mess up the economy?

How about Feds pumping $Ts into the oligarchy with super-low rates for too long, then too late raising rates to attack inflation,

(but not attack BigCorp price-push profiteering)?

[SpursforSix]

What are Republicans going to do for the economy?

Doesn't really matter. Inflation and deteriorating economics are put into motion terms before any current president. Gas prices and inflation were going to happen regardless of who's in the White House. If Trump had won, he'd have the same shit on his head. It's inevitable. But most voters don't understand any of that. It's just all based on their current situation.

[Winehole23]

What are Republicans going to do for the economy?make it worse, if possible.

holding the US credit rating hostage to force Social Security and Medicare cuts looks likely.

[vy65]

What are Republicans going to do for the economy?

Probably nothing, maybe some tax cuts, I dunno. That question won’t feature much for the midterms though.

[vy65]

What did the Dems do "rightfully" to mess up the economy?

How about Feds pumping $Ts into the oligarchy with super-low rates for too long, then too late raising rates to attack inflation,

(but not attack BigCorp price-push profiteering)?

What about it? I’ve criticized the Fed repeatedly in this thread.

[boutons_deux]

make it worse, if possible.

holding the US credit rating hostage to force Social Security and Medicare cuts looks likely.

they have announced they will shutdown the govt, extorting those cuts no matter who or what gets hurt.

They have to payfor $Ts in deficit due to $Ts in tax cuts for the fascist Capitalist oligarchy, pay on the backs of the old people who are no longer producing Capital for the Capitalists.

[ElNono]

Democrats are going to get absolutely smoked during midterms. And based on the economy’s poor health, rightfully so.

I mean, this is the norm? When was the last time a first term president didn't lose the midterms?

[vy65]

I mean, this is the norm? When was the last time a first term president didn't lose the midterms?

GWBush in 2002

https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/statistics/data/seats-congress-gainedlost-the-presidents-party-mid-term-elections

[ElNono]

GWBush in 2002

https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/statistics/data/seats-congress-gainedlost-the-presidents-party-mid-term-elections

Exactly. And if not for 9/11 a year earlier, the GOP would've probably lost that one as well.

I still recall the "tea potty red wave" in Obama's first midterms.

Not saying Dems don't deserve it, just saying that's typically the norm regardless.

[Winehole23]

Are we already in a recession?

About to begin one?

Or neither?

1584512342686978048

[CosmicCowboy]

Yeah, Goldman has such a great record of anticipating financial events :lol

[Winehole23]

Yeah, Goldman has such a great record of anticipating financial events :lolso what's your prediction?

[Winehole23]

1584689199466192896

[CosmicCowboy]

so what's your prediction?

I was referring to Goldman's 2008 ten billion dollar fuckup. Personally I don't see any way we avoid a recession in 2023 because the Fed will keep raising interest rates until unemployment rises to over 4% and then the lag time of the last increases to take effect will extend it for at least 6 more months.

[Winehole23]

I was referring to Goldman's 2008 ten billion dollar fuckup. Personally I don't see any way we avoid a recession in 2023 because the Fed will keep raising interest rates until unemployment rises to over 4% and then the lag time of the last increases to take effect will extend it for at least 6 more months.very plausible, it seems similar to me.

we'll see, eh? prediction is a fool's game.

[Winehole23]

Interest rate hikes are keeping would be buyers and sellers on the sidelines. A big difference from 2008-2012 is that ARMs are far less prevalent and many current owners have locked in historically low mortgage rates -- we're far less likely to see a wave of foreclosures this time around. We also have way more real estate controlled by private equity firms.


This is the first month in this cycle that the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index, which lags reality on the ground by 4-6 months, is showing house price declines in all the metros in the index.


In Seattle, the month-to-month plunge was the steepest on record (-3.8%). In San Francisco, the month-to-month plunge (-4.3%) was the third-steepest on record, outdone only by the two worst months during Housing Bust 1 in 2008. In San Diego (-2.8%), Los Angeles (-2.3%), Phoenix (-2.1%), and other metros, the plunges were the worst since Housing Bust 1. And the declines are spreading across the country to other metros, including Dallas, Boston, Washington D.C., and Las Vegas.


These are serious declines for the Case-Shiller Home Price Index (https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/indices/indicators/sp-corelogic-case-shiller-20-city-composite-home-price-nsa-index/#overview), where each month is a rolling three-month average which irons out the month-to-month variability.
https://wolfstreet.com/2022/10/25/the-most-splendid-housing-bubbles-in-america-biggest-price-drops-since-housing-bust-1-record-plunge-in-seattle-3-9-near-record-in-san-francisco-4-3-denver-drops-spread-across-the-us/

[Millennial_Messiah]

hit hard by inflation, gas prices, and democrat law in general...

Recession and a huge plummet in housing prices would be a huge boon for me, since I'm sitting on a lot of cash at the moment...

[ducks]

You know the Fed is going to increase rates again. If you get caught with your pants down, it's on you...

Your wife likes my pants down
She loves big balls

[Dirks_Finale]

If we had two consecutive quarters of negative GDP under the GOP, this wouldn't even be a question. The media would refer to the miserable recession we are in on a daily basis.

I'll admit that with the covid reset it does have a different feel to it, but the term has definitely been slyly redefined.


Are we already in a recession?

About to begin one?

Or neither?

1584512342686978048

[Winehole23]

Nothing has been redefined, the NBER has always made the call based on a variety of factors.

lol D_F's lame-brained conspiracies.

https://www.nber.org/research/business-cycle-dating/business-cycle-dating-procedure-frequently-asked-questions

[ChumpDumper]

If we had two consecutive quarters of negative GDP under the GOP, this wouldn't even be a question. The media would refer to the miserable recession we are in on a daily basis.

I'll admit that with the covid reset it does have a different feel to it, but the term has definitely been slyly redefined.

How much money have you lost because of Joe?

[Winehole23]

"Q3 GDP is up and the DJIA is having its best October ever. This is bad news for Joe Biden and the US economy..."

[SpursforSix]

"Q3 GDP is up and the DJIA is having its best October ever. This is bad news for Joe Biden and the US economy..."

Oh good. The GDP is up and stocks are up. That will surely offset inflation for actual people.

[Winehole23]

Oh good. The GDP is up and stocks are up. That will surely offset inflation for actual people.who said it would?

[SpursforSix]

who said it would?

what was the point in your post?


"Q3 GDP is up and the DJIA is having its best October ever. This is bad news for Joe Biden and the US economy..."

[Winehole23]

what was the point in your post?to counter obviously partisan doom and gloomers who exaggerate and intentionally misstate a complicated state of affairs.

[Winehole23]

parsing the definition of recession isn't descriptive, it misses the point. if you want to complain about inflation, fine. just don't call that something it isn't.

[SpursforSix]

to counter obviously partisan doom and gloomers who exaggerate and intentionally misstate a complicated state of affairs.

I didn't see that post. But I do agree that things are deteriorating quickly for mid to lower income people. Not that it's Biden's fault. It was going to fall on whoever was the president.
But food prices are nuts. And gas prices are still relatively high. Not to mention the high mortgage rates.

[Winehole23]

I didn't see that post. But I do agree that things are deteriorating quickly for mid to lower income people. Not that it's Biden's fault. It was going to fall on whoever was the president.
But food prices are nuts. And gas prices are still relatively high. Not to mention the high mortgage rates.It looks that way to me too.

[ElNono]

Your wife likes my pants down
She loves big balls

You lack a dick though, that’s why she’s my wife, not yours.

[TSA]

"Q3 GDP is up and the DJIA is having its best October ever. This is bad news for Joe Biden and the US economy..."Q3 GDP is up :lol

The latest data from the Department of Commerce show that the economy, as measured by gross domestic product (GDP), grew 2.6% from July through September, at an annualized rate. After two consecutive quarters of negative growth, the economy is now roughly flat for the first nine months of 2022. Although depressing, that’s not the worst part – the real devil is always in the details.

The third quarter GDP report does not show a stronger consumer or a healthy business climate. Rather, consumer expenditures grew at an anemic 1.4% and business investment fell for the second quarter in a row, dropping 8.5%. These two categories combined for a decrease of 0.62 percentage points to GDP while government spending grew 2.4%. Even including the nonproductive government sector, these three categories combined contributed -0.2 percentage points to GDP growth.

So, from where did all the growth come? A category called net exports. This is total exports minus total imports and is commonly called the trade deficit. It shrunk substantially in the third quarter, and that added to GDP.

Interpreting the actual impact of changes in net exports can be tricky. In this case, imports fell 6.9% as Americans were unable to afford as many foreign goods and services as before. This, combined with an increase in exports, added 2.77 percentage points to GDP—more than the total in the headline number.

Far from signs of wealth, these data indicate decline. Although the headline GDP number is positive for the third quarter, it does not reflect an improvement in the life of the common man, contrary to the White House’s rhetoric.

https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/new-gdp-number-positive-biden-white-houses-spin

[spurraider21]

lowering trade deficits bad now

[Spurminator]

Q3 GDP is up :lol


The latest data from the Department of Commerce show that the economy, as measured by gross domestic product (GDP), grew 2.6% from July through September, at an annualized rate.

:cry White House Spin :cry

[SnakeBoy]

to counter obviously partisan doom and gloomers who exaggerate and intentionally misstate a complicated state of affairs.

The doom and gloomers are bipartisan

The best case I've heard is this mild recession turns into lengthy stagflation. The more likely scenario is stagflation and another financial crisis. Seems like the majority view is that the financial crisis will lead the Fed to forget about inflation and once again drop interest rates and restart QE to save the broken global financial system. The one alternative view I've heard is that when the financial system cracks the Fed will continue to maintain restrictive policy to "fight" inflation while removing the limits on the amount of treasuries the banks can hold with a wink and a nod. That would essentially be QE that doesn't show up on the Feds balance sheet thus the Fed would technically be adhering to its mandate to control inflation. So they will be protecting the financial markets and leaving the plebs to suffer. It's impossible to know exactly what gimmicks central banks are going to employ but I think it's a safe bet that when they are faced with a choice between protecting themselves and protecting the average citizen they will choose themselves.

I haven't heard a bull case that isn't pie in the sky everything will be fine thinking. I think long termers should be ready for a whole lot of dollar cost averaging in their future. Which is fine if you've got the time.

[TSA]

:cry White House Spin :cry

For months, doomsayers have been arguing that the US economy is in a recession and Congressional Republicans have been rooting for a downturn. But today we got further evidence that our economic recovery is continuing to power forward.:blah

[TSA]

lowering trade deficits bad now

Lowering trade deficits because people can’t afford imports good now.

[ChumpDumper]

Trumptards praying for the worst.

[ChumpDumper]

Lowering trade deficits because people can’t afford imports good now.

Some stuff from Britain is pretty cheap these days tbh.

[Spurminator]

For months, doomsayers have been arguing that the US economy is in a recession and Congressional Republicans have been rooting for a downturn. But today we got further evidence that our economic recovery is continuing to power forward.:cry


up :lol

grew

[TSA]

:cry White House Spin :cry

Do you think GDP going up due to the fact that people are not able to afford buying imports is evidence that our economic recovery is continuing to power forward? Yes or no.

[CosmicCowboy]

And just wait until the railroads go on strike. Naturally, it too was postponed until after the November election.

[ElNono]

Do you think GDP going up due to the fact that people are not able to afford buying imports is evidence that our economic recovery is continuing to power forward? Yes or no.

Exports grew too. America first bad now.

[ElNono]

And just wait until the railroads go on strike. Naturally, it too was postponed until after the November election.

Meh, Brandon is going to be around two more years…

[CosmicCowboy]

Exports grew too. America first bad now.

Would be interesting to see which exports drove the spike. I suspect it was energy.

[ElNono]

Would be interesting to see which exports drove the spike. I suspect it was energy.

Not sure. Though I don’t expect this growth to stick around for very long.

[CosmicCowboy]

Not sure. Though I don’t expect this growth to stick around for very long.

Looked it up. Oil, diesel, and LNG.

[ElNono]

Looked it up. Oil, diesel, and LNG.

Probably making more money than Russia in energy right now

[CosmicCowboy]

Probably making more money than Russia in energy right now

Its a global commodity. Its going to be interesting. The growth of renewables has in a large part been created on the shoulders of cheap Fossil fuels. One powers the other.

[Spurminator]

Do you think GDP going up due to the fact that people are not able to afford buying imports is evidence that our economic recovery is continuing to power forward? Yes or no.

I think GDP is up, which you laughed at, while sharing an article that says GDP is up.

[TSA]

I think GDP is up, which you laughed at, while sharing an article that says GDP is up.

Do you think GDP going up due to the fact that people are not able to afford buying imports is evidence that our economic recovery is continuing to power forward? Yes or no.

[SnakeBoy]

Biden will probably ban O&G exports next year given the current and coming supply deficits. So don't count on that gdp growth in '23.

[Spurminator]

Do you think GDP going up due to the fact that people are not able to afford buying imports is evidence that our economic recovery is continuing to power forward? Yes or no.

I think trying to distill an entire explanation of economic trends down to a single variable that looks unfavorable to a certain party is the type of thing Fox News does so that stupid people will share their articles online.

The economy is showing signs of improvement but not everyone would say their personal situation has improved. Some would. Some people can't afford imports. Some people can. Exports have grown. Unemployment is down. Inflation is happening. Gas is lower than it was months ago. Gas is still high. GDP is up. So it goes.

[CosmicCowboy]

Biden will probably ban O&G exports next year given the current and coming supply deficits. So don't count on that gdp growth in '23.

I know Biden is a senile figurehead but his puppet string holders can't possibly be that stupid.

[TSA]

I think trying to distill an entire explanation of economic trends down to a single variable that looks unfavorable to a certain party is the type of thing Fox News does so that stupid people will share their articles online.


But relying on a single variable that looks favorable to a certain party as evidence that our economic recovery is continuing to power forward is totally fine with you. :lol

[SnakeBoy]

I know Biden is a senile figurehead but his puppet string holders can't possibly be that stupid.

They were kicking the tires on it this summer. The progressive caucus has been pushing for it all year. Biden has full authority to do it without congress.

We are currently around 3-4 million bpd short on the supply side. The optimistic view from the IEA is we will permanently lose 2 million bpd of Russian production in '23. Some O&G types I've read expect it will be 3 million+ bpd.

So if that's true and Biden was considering it with oil at $90, what's he going to do when oil is $150+?

[Spurminator]

But relying on a single variable that looks favorable to a certain party as evidence that our economic recovery is continuing to power forward is totally fine with you. :lol

Now you're putting words in my mouth.

I observed that you objected to saying "GDP is up" even while GDP is, objectively, up.

[CosmicCowboy]

They were kicking the tires on it this summer. The progressive caucus has been pushing for it all year. Biden has full authority to do it without congress.

We are currently around 3-4 million bpd short on the supply side. The optimistic view from the IEA is we will permanently lose 2 million bpd of Russian production in '23. Some O&G types I've read expect it will be 3 million+ bpd.

So if that's true and Biden was considering it with oil at $90, what's he going to do when oil is $150+?

I think the oil rich mid eastern countries will be happy with $90-$100 barrel oil without kicking the rest of the world into an energy depression.

[TSA]

Now you're putting words in my mouth.

These things happen when you dodge yes or no questions.

Does the Q3 report showing GDP up provide evidence that our economic recovery is continuing to power forward? Yes or no.

[SnakeBoy]

I think the oil rich mid eastern countries will be happy with $90-$100 barrel oil without kicking the rest of the world into an energy depression.

They don't have the spare capacity.

[CosmicCowboy]

They don't have the spare capacity.

When you can easily produce oil at $25 a barrel it doesn't take full capacity. They are proving that now with production cuts. They want price stability, not to destroy the world economy.

[ElNono]

Biden will probably ban O&G exports next year given the current and coming supply deficits. So don't count on that gdp growth in '23.

There’s zero reasons for Old Joe to do that and trillions of reasons to do the exact opposite.

The downturn on GDP won’t be about exports, it will be about high interest rates to eradicate inflation.

[ElNono]

When you can easily produce oil at $25 a barrel it doesn't take full capacity. They are proving that now with production cuts. They want price stability, not to destroy the world economy.

He’s trolling or BDS is kicking in again. Plus the US produces the most oil in the world right now, that’s not a market they’re going to leave to countries like Saudi Arabia, Russia or Venezuela.

[Winehole23]

the ratchet only goes one way


1585632436758532097

[TDMVPDPOY]

high prices of petrol/gas/fuel is pushing up inflation, yet they keep on complaining about interest rates and whatever bs going on in the world

i dont fkn get it, opec charges its people jackshit to consume energy...while in the west countries that take shit out of the ground that dont rely on imports for its fossil fuel consumption is charging its citizens market prices...my utility bills are going up faster then inflation

[Winehole23]

1587500970749005825

[Winehole23]

anybody hurt by rising market-power based pricing yet?

1548765867013730304

[Spurminator]

The S&P 500 Set a CPI Day Record

https://www.barrons.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-111022/card/the-s-p-500-set-for-best-performance-on-a-cpi-release-day-since-2008-6TvyjOW0pvyot1EKJUvT

It's been some time since inflation data gave a reason for investors to celebrate.

Stocks rallied across the board on Thursday after the consumer price index showed that rising prices were easing, albeit slightly.

At the close, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite gained 7.4%, its best CPI release day performance since the index's inception, according to data compiled by the Dow Jones Market Data. The Fed's campaign to quash inflation by raising interest rates has hit tech stocks the hardest.

The S&P 500 finished 5.5% higher, its best performance after a CPI report on record.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 3.7%, its best CPI day performance since December 2008 when the blue-chip index climbed 4.2%.

[Winehole23]

Huge day for the stock exchanges.

To the extent that a Fed pivot is expected, that may be disappointed in the long run. But in the short term we could see a double top for inflation. The market doing a mini-melt up on slightly lower than expected inflation is a reflection of animal spirits -- human expectations -- in troubled times.

1590735269917253632

[Winehole23]

Headline CPI down to 5.0% today. Ritholz thinks further rate cuts might overcook the goose, tipping us into recession when the Fed may already have done enough tovtame inflation.

Because of the lag between interest rate changes and inflation (~1-2 years), it's roughly impossible to tell when to take the foot off the brake.

https://ritholtz.com/2023/04/cpi-5-0/

[CosmicCowboy]

Fed will still hike a quarter point next round. They won't stop until they push us into a recession.

[CosmicCowboy]

The steady employment numbers are being driven by growth in lower income jobs in services and hospitality while "good jobs" are being laid off by the tens of thousands. Good luck to 2023 college grads if they aren't in STEM degrees.

[boutons_deux]

Fed says our BigFinance Capitalist friends in banking will cause a recession this year.

Tons of pundits predicting BAD recession.

Thanks, Capitalism, you fucking suck for non-Capitalists

[CosmicCowboy]

Fed says our BigFinance Capitalist friends in banking will cause a recession this year.

Tons of pundits predicting BAD recession.

Thanks, Capitalism, you fucking suck for non-Capitalists

Boukaki, why don't you just move to Cuba? You would love it there.

[Winehole23]

Fed will still hike a quarter point next round. They won't stop until they push us into a recession.


Faced with stubbornly high levels of employment and intent on engineering the hardest landing possible for ordinary Americans, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell called Thursday for more poverty. “It’s essential that we use every lever at our disposal to protect the status quo, and this includes raising the poverty rate,” said Powell, asserting that he would not hesitate to increase poverty to whatever level was necessary to relegate average citizens to lives of financial destitution and misery. “We must do everything in our power to ensure that people cannot afford to buy a home or a car. Should we fail to act, we run the very real risk that Americans at the bottom of the economic ladder will start to get ahead at the expense of those at the top. This is an outcome we are keen to avoid.” At press time, Powell issued what he described as the bleakest economic assessment of his tenure at the Fed, indicating that job growth was likely to continue through much of 2023.
https://www.theonion.com/federal-reserve-calls-for-more-poverty-1850333337?utm_campaign=TheOnion&utm_content=1681414363&utm_medium=SocialMarketing&utm_source=twitter

[ChumpDumper]

Boukaki, why don't you just move to Cuba? You would love it there.

He's predicting the same thing you are.

[Winehole23]

Fed will still hike a quarter point next round. They won't stop until they push us into a recession.

1653074197260779522

[Winehole23]

Martin Wolf thinks the Fed is stimulating inflationary expectations, a sort of macro self-fulfilling prophecy.

Blair Fix thinks rates hikes correlate with higher inflation.

https://economicsfromthetopdown.com/2023/02/04/do-high-interest-rates-reduce-inflation-a-test-of-monetary-faith/




With core CPI at 5.52% in April, the “real” Effective Federal Funds Rate (EFFR minus core CPI) is still a negative 0.44%. And negative real policy rates are still a form of interest rate repression, and are still stimulative of the economy and of inflation.


And so core CPI got stuck at 5.5% to 5.7%, and isn’t making any efforts to be heading toward 2% or whatever, and instead, everyone has gotten used to this inflation and accepts it, and deals with it, and builds it into economic decisions, which is nurturing this inflation right along.


In other words, with its current policy rates, the Fed is still just removing accommodation, rather than turning the screws on inflation.


But the crybabies on Wall Street are out there in force screaming about those unfair interest rates and clamoring for immediate rate cuts, like in June, to remove this incredible injustice of 5% short-term rates and even lower long-term Treasury yields (the 10-year Treasury yield is at 3.43%, LOL), when core CPI is 5.5%.


For those crybabies on Wall Street, the best money is free money. They want their 0% back, and they want their QE back. But now we have this inflation that’s not going away.


When we look back 60 years, we see what an extraordinary period this QE and interest rate repression since 2008 has been. During almost the entire 14 years — except for a few months in 2019 — the Fed’s policy rate was far below the rate of core CPI. And to this day, it remains below core CPI. But that’s an upside-down version of what was the rule before 2008.
https://wolfstreet.com/2023/05/11/the-feds-interest-rates-are-still-fueling-inflation-rather-than-dousing-it-and-people-getting-used-to-this-inflation/

[Winehole23]

https://wolfstreet.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/US-CPI-EFFR-2023-05-10-long_.png

[CosmicCowboy]

I don't see the Fed stopping the quarter point hikes any time soon, especially after that last jobs report.

[ducks]

I don't see the Fed stopping the quarter point hikes any time soon, especially after that last jobs report.

Yeah they want a recession

[spurraider21]

pretty astonishing how resilient the economy has been to the rate hikes tbh

[RandomGuy]

I don't see the Fed stopping the quarter point hikes any time soon, especially after that last jobs report.

what happened to the shadow unemployment?

[RandomGuy]

pretty astonishing how resilient the economy has been to the rate hikes tbh

I think we have a lot of years of slow growth to make up for, demand-wise.

Boomers removing themselves from the Labor pool is making life awesome for us Gen Xers. Demand for our skilled/educated labor is SKY FUCKING HIGH, meaning we are going gangbusters in the labor market.

At the same time, capital is going to start getting expensive, as those boomers cash out, which means my retirement savings are going to do REALLY well.

People not having kids means they spend it on themselves. "high octane growth"

B4RLmt-JxpM

[Winehole23]

pretty astonishing how resilient the economy has been to the rate hikes tbh

typical historical lag time for measurable effects on rate hikes is 6 to 18 months, but there's little that normal about where we are right now. it's not a given that the Fed knows what it's doing or that a recession will result.

[spurraider21]

typical historical lag time for measurable effects on rate hikes is 6 to 18 months, but there's little that normal about where we are right now. it's not a given that the Fed knows what it's doing or that a recession will result.
inflation started its observable decline trend around october or so, which tracks with a ~6 month reaction time. meanwhile its been over 12 months since the rate hikes began. i agree that it might end up being the case that the most recent hike(s) will be found to have not been necessary, but given how modest the increases were im not sure it will be that massive an overcorrection. we shall see.

there had been some optimism that the may hikes would be the last one and they would start bringing them down in the fall/winter, but with the latest reports, might not be the case

[Millennial_Messiah]

We need to keep hiking the rates up and up and up until we have negative inflation to return the value of the dollar to 2019. Basically un-do covid and work from there and keep the sustainable ~1.5-1.9% inflation rate that we had from there going.

Up and up and up works for me because I don't trust any investments other than fixed income CD's.

[Winehole23]

inflation started its observable decline trend around october or so, which tracks with a ~6 month reaction time. meanwhile its been over 12 months since the rate hikes began. i agree that it might end up being the case that the most recent hike(s) will be found to have not been necessary, but given how modest the increases were im not sure it will be that massive an overcorrection. we shall see.

there had been some optimism that the may hikes would be the last one and they would start bringing them down in the fall/winter, but with the latest reports, might not be the caseyep.

the real FFR (FFR- CPI) still being negative would seem to be accomodative from a monetary standpoint, i.e., stimulative. that would seem to be in line with more rate hikes.

[SnakeBoy]

We need to keep hiking the rates up and up and up until we have negative inflation to return the value of the dollar to 2019. Basically un-do covid and work from there and keep the sustainable ~1.5-1.9% inflation rate that we had from there going.

Up and up and up works for me because I don't trust any investments other than fixed income CD's.

Barring another financial crisis, you won't see inflation below 2% again this decade. The boomer era is coming to an end and it only accelerates with every passing year.

[Millennial_Messiah]

Barring another financial crisis, you won't see inflation below 2% again this decade. The boomer era is coming to an end and it only accelerates with every passing year.

What we need is a large scale financial crisis in 2023/24 which would do wonders on a lot of things, hopefully cause negative inflation and skyrocketing unemployment as well as tank house prices to finally at long last give responsible cash-buyers (like me who have been waiting forever to pounce) a chance, but most importantly of all cause a massive red wave in November 2024 and get rid of Biden and all of the Senate Dems in purple and red states once and for all.

Bring on the great recession of 2023-24. Bring it hard.

[SnakeBoy]

What we need is a large scale financial crisis in 2023/24 which would do wonders on a lot of things, hopefully cause negative inflation and skyrocketing unemployment as well as tank house prices to finally at long last give responsible cash-buyers (like me who have been waiting forever to pounce) a chance, but most importantly of all cause a massive red wave in November 2024 and get rid of Biden and all of the Senate Dems in purple and red states once and for all.

Bring on the great recession of 2023-24. Bring it hard.

If we get another GFC it will be the most widely predicted financial crisis/recession in history. So far the bears (which is just about everybody in Biden's America) have been wrong and they just keep saying next qtr it will happen. I think we're in for a prolonged period (decade plus) of low growth and persistant inflation and higher interest rates. If the Fed does cause a massive financial crisis it really will be time to end the Fed at least in it's current form. They totally botched sticking with the transitory inflation for too long, if they break the financial system trying to save face then it's time for reform. Step one imo would be a minimum interest rate, maybe 3-4%, any lower requires congressional approval every quarter.

[spurraider21]

If we get another GFC it will be the most widely predicted financial crisis/recession in history. So far the bears (which is just about everybody in Biden's America) have been wrong and they just keep saying next qtr it will happen. I think we're in for a prolonged period (decade plus) of low growth and persistant inflation and higher interest rates. If the Fed does cause a massive financial crisis it really will be time to end the Fed at least in it's current form. They totally botched sticking with the transitory inflation for too long, if they break the financial system trying to save face then it's time for reform. Step one imo would be a minimum interest rate, maybe 3-4%, any lower requires congressional approval every quarter.
i think the concept of a minimum interest rate is fair, but man, im reluctant to trust congress to get anything like that done (quarterly approval, etc). requires too much cooperation and there will be asshats holding it hostage as a bargaining chip for their pet project de jure

could still have an independent fed but with concrete guidelines/requirements to justify rate decreases

[CosmicCowboy]

i think the concept of a minimum interest rate is fair, but man, im reluctant to trust congress to get anything like that done (quarterly approval, etc). requires too much cooperation and there will be asshats holding it hostage as a bargaining chip for their pet project de jure

could still have an independent fed but with concrete guidelines/requirements to justify rate decreases

The goal is to have the lowest interest rates possible without stimulating inflation. Fed had loaded the gun by keeping interest rates too low for too long and covid stimulation flooding the market with excess cash was the trigger. Boom.

[spurraider21]

The goal is to have the lowest interest rates possible without stimulating inflation. Fed had loaded the gun by keeping interest rates too low for too long and covid stimulation flooding the market with excess cash was the trigger. Boom.
sure. not sure how that contradicts my post