Official 2022-2023 Tragic Number Thread

[Dex]

This has been discussed in game threads and other spots but might as well make it official (shout out to exstatic and others for keeping up with this)

I usually try to make a yearly Magic Number thread, but this year the focus has shifted so I present to you...the chase for the Tragic Number:

https://i.imgur.com/D3mRmXS.png

There are 4 teams officially locked into the bottom 4 spots in the standings. The next closest team is Orlando who is currently 8 losses behind Charlotte, but only have 7 left to play.

As we see, any combination of 2 Spurs losses OR Charlotte wins guarantees the Spurs will finish in the bottom 3 and have a 14% chance at the #1 overall pick (the best possible odds). This currently seems to be the most likely scenario.

The Spurs could still mathematically out-tank Houston and Detroit for a bottom 2 spot, but they would need some help. Even if the Spurs lose their remaining 7 games, we would still be counting on two tanking teams to win multiple games. It's definitely unlikely, but worth watching as we go down the stretch. If those teams mess around and win some games, things could get interesting.

[spurs10]

Go CHA! Thanks for this....yeah I was thinking 2 was our 'magic' I mean 'tragic' number. We got this!

[JPB]

Still time to catch HOU.

[Seventyniner]

Tragic Number :lol

Nice.

I'm no draftnik, but there doesn't appear to be a huge difference between picks 5/6/7. If that is true, the Spurs "catching" Houston or Detroit isn't all that important. All three teams have identical odds for each of the top 4 slots.

[exstatic]

Tragic Number :lol

Nice.

I'm no draftnik, but there doesn't appear to be a huge difference between picks 5/6/7. If that is true, the Spurs "catching" Houston or Detroit isn't all that important. All three teams have identical odds for each of the top 4 slots.

Someone who gets it.

[Dex]

Tragic Number :lol

Nice.

I'm no draftnik, but there doesn't appear to be a huge difference between picks 5/6/7. If that is true, the Spurs "catching" Houston or Detroit isn't all that important. All three teams have identical odds for each of the top 4 slots.

I don't love the slim possibility of being able to drop all the way to pick 7...but if you had told us we would finish in the bottom 3 at the beginning of the season, I think most of us would be happy with that. :tu

[TD 21]

Tragic Number :lol

Nice.

I'm no draftnik, but there doesn't appear to be a huge difference between picks 5/6/7. If that is true, the Spurs "catching" Houston or Detroit isn't all that important. All three teams have identical odds for each of the top 4 slots.

I continue to be baffled as to why some think this. They could end up in that range and we could easily look back x years from now and realize that there was a significant drop off right before they picked (of course they'll be surprises sprinkled in further down).

[MultiTroll]

Go CHA! Thanks for this....yeah I was thinking 2 was our 'magic' I mean 'tragic' number. We got this!
Dex took Magic # a step further and gave us the scenario odds for all finishes.
Props to Dex.

While I'm much more confortable now with the great likelyhood we close at least 3rd, still want to see the clincher happen.

For you poker players, the River has not been laid down yet. We've all seen the bullshit 1 and 2 outers that occur.

So finish this out Pop.

For those who say it IS an absolute slam, well a week ago Houston beat the Spurs twice. Next the Spurs beat at the time #1 Denver then rolled Orlando for 2 of 3.
WTH is going on in the NBA, no one knows for sure. Perhaps PATFO are taking no chances with Stern Jr. and the Lakers-Warriors pulling their bread and butter bullshit. Cheating. I don't want to see some *Investigashun* by Stern Jr. No i don't believe that will happen but i do believe their is a 1% chance those corrupt phucks would consider it to get Wama to the Lakers or Lakers North.

[exstatic]

Dex took Magic # a step further and gave us the scenario odds for all finishes.
Props to Dex.

While I'm much more confortable now with the great likelyhood we close at least 3rd, still want to see the clincher happen.

For you poker players, the River has not been laid down yet. We've all seen the bullshit 1 and 2 outers that occur.

So finish this out Pop.

For those who say it IS an absolute slam, well a week ago Houston beat the Spurs twice. Next the Spurs beat at the time #1 Denver then rolled Orlando for 2 of 3.
WTH is going on in the NBA, no one knows for sure. Perhaps PATFO are taking no chances with Stern Jr. and the Lakers-Warriors pulling their bread and butter bullshit. Cheating. I don't want to see some *Investigashun* by Stern Jr. No i don't believe that will happen but i do believe their is a 1% chance those corrupt phucks would consider it to get Wama to the Lakers or Lakers North.

How many times to we have to explain to your dumb ass that the Lakers cannot come out of this draft with Wembanyama?

[MultiTroll]

How many times to we have to explain to your dumb ass that the Lakers cannot come out of this draft with Wembanyama?
Add a little more fiber to your diet and perhaps a half a Midol is in order.

How many times do you have to have explained Kwame for MVPau, Lakers - Kings 2002, Zaza, etc.
I never stated it HAD to be via draft, since the Lakers don't own their 1st pick.

#1 picks have been traded before.
If some owner was videotaped being serviced at a Laker owned / Laker ran/ Warrior influenced casino, chit can and has happened.

https://youtu.be/flz6URTKT4I

[exstatic]

Add a little more fiber to your diet and perhaps a half a Midol is in order.

How many times do you have to have explained Kwame for MVPau, Lakers - Kings 2002, Zaza, etc.
I never stated it HAD to be via draft, since the Lakers don't own their 1st pick.

#1 picks have been traded before.
If some owner was videotaped being serviced at a Laker owned / Laker ran/ Warrior influenced casino, chit can and has happened.

https://youtu.be/flz6URTKT4I

This is a draft discussion thread. Fret about your conspiracies elsewhere.

Oh and no one is trading Wemby for anything the Lakers have or have on the horizon. They’re washed, and will be for some time.

[JPB]

I continue to be baffled as to why some think this. They could end up in that range and we could easily look back x years from now and realize that there was a significant drop off right before they picked (of course they'll be surprises sprinkled in further down).

Rrrrrrright? And baffled as to why some people have definititely decreted that there's no difference between 5/6/7 even before workouts and combine... Of course you want the highest pick no matter what. One spot could make a huge difference.

[MultiTroll]

This is a draft discussion thread. Fret about your conspiracies elsewhere.

Oh and no one is trading Wemby for anything the Lakers have or have on the horizon. They’re washed, and will be for some time.
Your fold is accepted.

And nobodys trading MVPau for Kwame Brown. Just didn't happen.

[DPG21920]

Someone who gets it.

Most get it I think. Even me who has been vocal on tracking this for a while understands bottom 3 was 99% of the goal. Anything else is chips fall where they may IMO. Spurs did their job; Im fine finishing 3rd, especially since odds of getting pick 7 anyways are super low. It’s not much different than odds at pick 5/6 even if HOU leaps SA

There’s no doubt I rather have pick 6 than 7, it could be a difference; just that it was the lesser of the important things and that is harder to control. Im rooting for HOU to leap SA, think it’s possible if SA loses 2 of the UTA, POR & DAL games. But I wont be devastated if it doesn’t happen.

[Dex]

Detroit lost by 9, and Houston down big late in the 4th. No help tonight.

[exstatic]

Detroit lost by 9, and Houston down big late in the 4th. No help tonight.

We don’t actually need help. By Saturday morning, we could have two more losses, and wrap this shit up, sooner if CHA wins again.

[Dex]

We don’t actually need help. By Saturday morning, we could have two more losses, and wrap this shit up, sooner if CHA wins again.

I'm still hopeful for that #2 spot.

Don't see any way we catch Detroit.

[Ariel]

I continue to be baffled as to why some think this. They could end up in that range and we could easily look back x years from now and realize that there was a significant drop off right before they picked (of course they'll be surprises sprinkled in further down).
That only matters if you're accurately able to differentiate the better prospects from the worse ones. If you can't confidently tell them apart ahead of the draft, then it makes no difference where you pick EVEN if there was a significant gap, because your chances of coming away with either are about the same.

[baseline bum]

I'm still hopeful for that #2 spot.

Don't see any way we catch Detroit.

It's not too big a deal IMO when the talent curve seems to flatten out at after the top 3. The #2 and #3 spot have the exact same odds at picks 1-4, but if the #2 spot drops out of the top 4 it's a 58% chance they pick #5 and 42% they pick #6 while for the #3 spot if they drop out of the top 4 it's a 31% chance they pick #5, a 54.3% chance they pick #6, and a 14.7% chance they pick #7. And even if draft position was a big deal after the top 4, the #2 spot's expected value for the pick if they miss the top 4 is 5.42 while the #3's expected value for the pick if missing the top 4 is 5.84. So the #2 spot over the #3 spot is worth less than half a draft spot on average if you condition on not making the top 4.

[John B]

I'm still hopeful for that #2 spot.

Don't see any way we catch Detroit.

HOU and DET play each other this Friday. Somebody has to win :lol

[baseline bum]

HOU and DET play each other this Friday. Somebody has to win :lol

Expecting the first tie in NBA history tbh

[John B]

Expecting the first tie in NBA history tbh

Correct me if I’m wrong, I think HOU holds the tie-breaker with the better division record? In the event Rockets and Spurs ended with the same record, the Spurs get the 2nd worst record?

[baseline bum]

Correct me if I’m wrong, I think HOU holds the tie-breaker with the better division record? In the event Rockets and Spurs ended with the same record, the Spurs get the 2nd worst record?

No tie breakers like that for picks, it's a coin flip I think. Those kind of head to head / division / conference won-loss tie breakers are only for playoff seeding.

[baseline bum]

EDIT: nevermind, already made that point in this thread

[spurs10]

I'm still hopeful for that #2 spot.

Don't see any way we catch Detroit. 2 spot is 14% and 3 spot is the same. Why would it matter? Meaning are there any advantages?

[Dex]

2 spot is 14% and 3 spot is the same. Why would it matter? Meaning are there any advantages?

For the bottom 3 records, percentages at the top 4 picks are the same. But as you go lower, there are higher odds of falling out of the top 4.

For example, the worst record can only fall to #5.

The third worst record can fall all the way to #7.

See more here: https://www.tankathon.com/pick_odds

[spurs10]

For the bottom 3 records, percentages at the top 4 picks are the same. But as you go lower, there are higher odds of falling out of the top 4.

For example, the worst record can only fall to #5.

The third worst record can fall all the way to #7.

See more here: https://www.tankathon.com/pick_odds Aaah thanks for this info...go Houston show so pride and win out!

[baseline bum]

2 spot is 14% and 3 spot is the same. Why would it matter? Meaning are there any advantages?

Numbers 1-3 for worst record have the exact same odds at each of the picks #1-4. So assume you miss out on the top 4 picks:

If you're the second worst record your odds are
Pick #5 - 58%
Pick #6 - 42%

If you're the third worst record your odds are
Pick #5 - 31%
Pick #6 - 54.3%
Pick #7 - 14.7%

You have a 47.86% chance of not picking top 4 in either scenario. Your average pick if you miss out on the top 4 is:

5.42 if you're the second worst record
5.84 if you're the third worst record

So worst case is one pick worse if you're the third worst instead of the second worst, and better odds at pick #5 if you're second worst vs third.

[CGD]

Thanks— didn’t appreciate the odds on the back end. At any rate, I’m less concerned about the difference between 5 and 7th picks in this draft based on what we know now, as opposed to say last year when it seems the cut off started after that matherin pick

[spurraider21]

charlotte with a monster 4th quarter. stormed back ahead of OKC and now has a 5 point lead in the 4th

[MultiTroll]

Hornets pulling ahead in 4th / OKC appears to be laying down.
:hungry::cheer

[spurraider21]

charlotte has scored 30 points in the first 6 minutes of the 4th quarter :wow

[offset formation]

I don't love the slim possibility of being able to drop all the way to pick 7...but if you had told us we would finish in the bottom 3 at the beginning of the season, I think most of us would be happy with that. :tu

yup. probably would have raged at a 4th place finish even though it's only 1.5% lower odds, but nonetheless happy PATFO gave us the best odds possible. fuck the NBA draft lottery system as currently constructed though.

[offset formation]

Charlotte gonna get rewarded with that pick and help lift Jordan's ownership share value as he sells them. Book it.

[Seventyniner]

I wonder if Pop will actually play everyone once the Spurs clinch a bottom 3 record, let them have some fun out there and get a taste of actually competing.

[Mr. Body]

League refs badly want OKC to get this one.

[spurraider21]

Tragic number down to 1
DPG21920 get in here

[Mr. Body]

Awful loss by the Thunder. They push into a tie with Dallas. One of them won't make the play-in. Utah is right there, too.

[Mr. Body]

The Hornets are like a wrecking ball to these fringe Western Conference playoff teams.

[Dex]

Thanks to Charlotte The Destroyer, the Spurs are now just one Tragic Number away from clinching the bottom 3:

https://i.imgur.com/60u7ifH.png

[MultiTroll]

Magic # is 1 game as in Spurs will get the #3 pick?
or
Magic # is 2 games as right now 1 Spurs win / Cha loss would still leave Charlotte a chance to tie thus a coinflip?

[TXstbobcat]

Magic # is 1 game as in Spurs will get the #3 pick?
or
Magic # is 2 games as right now 1 Spurs win / Cha loss would still leave Charlotte a chance to tie thus a coinflip?

magic number is 1 to clinch a bottom 3 record. Just need one more spurs loss or one more hornets win.

[spurs10]

1

[DPG21920]

Tragic number down to 1
DPG21920 get in here

:lol LaMelo must be a zero impact player because Im shocked at how CHA is winning - but this is working out perfect. It’s a lock SA is bottom 3. If SA loses 2 out of 3 v: UTA, POR and DAL I think theres a good shot HOU at least ties SA and we get the coin flip scenario.

[spurraider21]

:lol LaMelo must be a zero impact player because Im shocked at how CHA is winning - but this is working out perfect. It’s a lock SA is bottom 3. If SA loses 2 out of 3 v: UTA, POR and DAL I think theres a good shot HOU at least ties SA and we get the coin flip scenario.
the've been winning with rozier out too :lol

gives me optimism that their pick will convey at some point

[DPG21920]

the've been winning with rozier out too :lol

gives me optimism that their pick will convey at some point

I mean, obviously I was dead wrong about CHA without LaMelo. So let’s make that clear. But even as someone that sees LaMelos talent in many areas but has been asking the questions on his impact, Im astonished they are winning like this and beating solid teams

Let’s hope they can make a low end playoff run next season and like you said we get that pick to convey

[Mr. Body]

I think only injuries will prevent CHA from making the playoffs next year.

[exstatic]

I think only injuries will prevent CHA from making the playoffs next year.

They've got the right coach for it. Before this year, Steve Clifford had coached two of the saddest franchises of the last 25 years, Orlando and Charlotte, for a total of 8 seasons. He took them to the playoffs 4 times out of 8.

[cjw]

No tie breakers like that for picks, it's a coin flip I think. Those kind of head to head / division / conference won-loss tie breakers are only for playoff seeding.

It’s a coinflip tiebreaker for pick (in this case, only matters if neither team is in top 4 post-lottery). Given balls are same among the worst three it doesn’t come into play, but if teams outside of worst three are tied their lottery balls get split evenly. And imagine if 3rd and 4th worst are tied, they split their balls.

[cjw]

Magic # is 1 game as in Spurs will get the #3 pick?
or
Magic # is 2 games as right now 1 Spurs win / Cha loss would still leave Charlotte a chance to tie thus a coinflip?

Double post, but it wouldn’t be a coin flip that comes into play unless they’re outside the top 4 after lottery (they’d still flip, but might not be relevant). They would just split up balls between the two teams if somehow CHA loses out and Spurs win out.

[Dex]

https://i.imgur.com/DSheUNs.png

With the Spurs' loss to the Utah Jazz last night, they have officially secured a bottom 3 spot, and Charlotte is locked in at 4th.

With the bottom 3 each having 6 games left, it will be a tall task to try to catch Houston and, especially, Detroit. Spurs would need to lose their remaining 6 games, and hope that they win 2 and 4 games respectively.

Rockets are still within reach, but Detroit seems too far out at this point.

I'm in the camp that with bottom 3 now locked up, Pop should let go of the leash and let the guys actually go out and try to win some games to end the season (I may be biased because I am going to the Minessota game in Austin)

[CGD]

https://i.imgur.com/DSheUNs.png

With the Spurs' loss to the Utah Jazz last night, they have officially secured a bottom 3 spot, and Charlotte is locked in at 4th.

With the bottom 3 each having 6 games left, it will be a tall task to try to catch Houston and, especially, Detroit. Spurs would need to lose their remaining 6 games, and hope that they win 2 and 4 games respectively.

Rockets are still within reach, but Detroit seems too far out at this point.

I'm in the camp that with bottom 3 now locked up, Pop should let go of the leash and let the guys actually go out and try to win some games to end the season (I may be biased because I am going to the Minessota game in Austin)

Cool -- now i'd love to see the team ball out the rest of the way, ideally with a SL of Tre, Vassell, Keldon, Sochan, Zach. We haven't really see it yet. Could also be cool to play spoiler to a few team along the way.

[Mr. Body]

With those back-to-back victories the Spurs gifted the Rockets, they essentially locked them into no better than 2nd worst position.

[exstatic]

There's no way we're catching Detroit with 6 games left, and if Detroit happens to win the DET/HOU heavyweight tilt, there's no way we're catching Houston.

[MultiTroll]

There's no way we're catching Detroit with 6 games left, and if Detroit happens to win the DET/HOU heavyweight tilt, there's no way we're catching Houston.
Detroit 100 committed to the Tank.
Saw the end of last nights OKC - Pistons. Pistons doing work.

Basically I'm very happy with 3rd. 2nd would be icing on the cake.

[rjv]

at best, we have a coin flip with houston. nevertheless, a tank job well done.

[exstatic]

If Houston loses that game with Detroit, I want everyone to miraculously get healthy and go out and wreck some fuckers.

[John B]

If Houston loses that game with Detroit, I want everyone to miraculously get healthy and go out and wreck some fuckers.

Tanking has to be consistent notbto cast any grounds for investigation. I doubt Pop would go there. He might try coaching harder though.

[Dex]

If Houston wins against Detroit tonight, and Spurs lose to the Warriors (both seem very possible), we'll be within 6 of the 2nd spot.

[MultiTroll]

If Houston wins against Detroit tonight, and Spurs lose to the Warriors (both seem very possible), we'll be within 6 of the 2nd spot.
Which is why Spurs should go ahead and continue to Tank / Naturally Suck until Houston is out of reach.

[TDMVPDPOY]

If Houston wins against Detroit tonight, and Spurs lose to the Warriors (both seem very possible), we'll be within 6 of the 2nd spot.

rockets vs pistons...that will be a lame ass match to see who can outdo the tanking....nba needs to do something about tanking on purpose is no different to matchfixing

[Thomas82]

If Houston wins against Detroit tonight, and Spurs lose to the Warriors (both seem very possible), we'll be within 6 of the 2nd spot.

So far, Houston is looking like they're throwing this game.

[Thomas82]

The Rockets seem to still be trying to clinch the worst record in the NBA.

[MultiTroll]

The Rockets seem to still be trying to clinch the worst record in the NBA.
Which says what about Detroit since they let Houston catch and beat them in the 4th.

Stern Jr. isn't going to do jack shit about purposeful tanking.
For all we know the corrupt part Vulcan part Jew is working on a Detroit - Lakers or Detroit - Warriors deal.

[Biggems]

too bad the NBA doesn't do tiebreakers for seeding purposes for bottom feeders. If the Spurs lose out, they should be the 2 based on tiebreakers. Unfortunately, we go to a coin flip, such a stupid rule.

We just need to lose out and hope Charlotte or Washington lies down in their last game vs Houston.

[Dex]

https://i.imgur.com/iyB6QYP.png

https://media3.giphy.com/media/j6uK36y32LxQs/giphy.gif

[TDMVPDPOY]

fck pistons...

if the spurs missed out on their player to draft, with the cap available...go hard go after dame

[Thomas82]

Which says what about Detroit since they let Houston catch and beat them in the 4th.

Stern Jr. isn't going to do jack shit about purposeful tanking.
For all we know the corrupt part Vulcan part Jew is working on a Detroit - Lakers or Detroit - Warriors deal.

No disagreement here.

[MultiTroll]

Holy Batman the Spurs can still catch Houston.
Not only with a tie and coinflip but could actually win out.


We can't actually PASS Houston, we could only stay a tad higher as a worst case. The Wemby odds are the same, but we can drop to 7, and Houston can only drop to 6. WGAF at that point? If we're not 1,2,3 then we're screwed, whether its 6 or 7.


Houston won tonight so Spurs back in with a chance to tie and a coin flip in the end.
rascal could you explain that to exstatic?

And it's not just by tie and coinflip. Spurs can now also pass Houston in losses.
3 games left for Spurs.
2 games left for Houston.

20-62 Spurs lose out
21-61 Houston with one more miracle Houston win like tonight vs Denver.

[Thomas82]

Holy Batman the Spurs can still catch Houston.
Not only with a tie and coinflip but could actually win out.




rascal could you explain that to exstatic?

And it's not just by tie and coinflip. Spurs can now also pass Houston in losses.
3 games left for Spurs.
2 games left for Houston.

20-62 Spurs lose out
21-61 Houston with one more miracle Houston win like tonight vs Denver.

That would be amazing.

[pookenstein]

Problem is that the Spurs are not unlikely to win at least one of their remaining games as well. Portland at home is easily winnable. The Mavs game to close out the season is also winnable, depending on what the Mavs do.

[JPB]

Problem is that the Spurs are not unlikely to win at least one of their remaining games as well. Portland at home is easily winnable. The Mavs game to close out the season is also winnable, depending on what the Mavs do.

Yeah, could be wrong but HOU is probably losing their last two games now, so it should be all on the spurs to lose their last 3 too.

[CGD]

As far as I’m concerned it’s mission accomplished: spurs wanted to get the best chance possible to land Victor and they did that.

The back end stuff is interesting, but unlike last year this feels like a shallower draft after the first 2-3 guys.

[Dejounte]

Yeah, there’s too many people who don’t understand how the odds work and are fixated on one thing and one thing only even though what they truly want is already secured.

[JPB]

Which says what about Detroit since they let Houston catch and beat them in the 4th.

Stern Jr. isn't going to do jack shit about purposeful tanking.
For all we know the corrupt part Vulcan part Jew is working on a Detroit - Lakers or Detroit - Warriors deal.

I'll pass on attacking the looks, and it's one thing calling an NBA commissioner corrupt, but what Stern's religion has to do with anything here exactly? "Part vulcan, part jew", Like jew was about apparence, oldest antisemitic cliché...

[The Truth #6]

Do we drop to 6 or 7, that’s what we’re fighting for at this point, right? Regardless, Pop has pulled most of the good young players already so it’s not like he’s trying to necessarily win.

[JPB]

Yeah, there’s too many people who don’t understand how the odds work and are fixated on one thing and one thing only even though what they truly want is already secured.

You want the best odds possible for anything, and it's not secured yet. Not because you don't get Wemby that you shouldn't care after that. Best odds for #1 is secured, but not the lowest possible pick (7 so far, but possibly 6) and not the best odds for 5 and 6 if you finish bottom 3, or 5 if you finish bottom 2.

[The Truth #6]

Don’t Win More for Whitmore!!

[The Truth #6]

Get Embarrassed for Jarace!!!

[Dex]

https://i.imgur.com/uYUlWB3.png

Spurs still have a long-shot at securing the 2nd worst spot, but would need to lose out and need Houston to win one more game. Rockets remaining games are against the Hornets and Wizards, neither of which are world beaters...so it's not impossible.

To those saying it doesn't matter...it may seem insignificant but the difference between finishing in 3rd instead of 2nd is basically a 6% higher chance of falling into 6th, and a 7% chance of falling as far as 7th. I'd rather keep that 13% percentage in the Spurs favor in case we don't manage to land a top 4 pick.

It would be a real pain in the ass for this tank to result in pick #7, but that would literally be impossible if Spurs finish 2nd worst.

That said, I'm calling it now...Spurs are gonna end up tied with the Rockets and lose the coin-flip to end up in 3rd. At that point, it's up to the lottery gods.

[exstatic]

https://i.imgur.com/uYUlWB3.png

Spurs still have a long-shot at securing the 2nd worst spot, but would need to lose out and need Houston to win one more game. Rockets remaining games are against the Hornets and Wizards, neither of which are world beaters...so it's not impossible.

To those saying it doesn't matter...it may seem insignificant but the difference between finishing in 3rd instead of 2nd is basically a 6% higher chance of falling into 6th, and a 7% chance of falling as far as 7th. I'd rather keep that 13% percentage in the Spurs favor in case we don't manage to land a top 4 pick.

It would be a real pain in the ass for this tank to result in pick #7, but that would literally be impossible if Spurs finish 2nd worst.

That said, I'm calling it now...Spurs are gonna end up tied with the Rockets and lose the coin-flip to end up in 3rd. At that point, it's up to the lottery gods.

That's where it stands right now. Do you really think #6 is substantially better than #7? I don't. I also think if we get 6 or 7, the Spurs will get a pretty good player off their board, since I'm nearly sure both twins are not in their top 10, and both will be gone by that point. That's also why I'm not averse to trading back.

[Dejounte]

You want the best odds possible for anything, and it's not secured yet. Not because you don't get Wemby that you shouldn't care after that. Best odds for #1 is secured, but not the lowest possible pick (7 so far, but possibly 6) and not the best odds for 5 and 6 if you finish bottom 3, or 5 if you finish bottom 2.

Yes, I get that. But the people only concerned with getting a top pick are not even focused on that. They think the worst possible increases their odds at Wemby. They’re not even thinking about 6th or 7th.

[MultiTroll]

https://i.imgur.com/uYUlWB3.png

Spurs still have a long-shot at securing the 2nd worst spot, but would need to lose out and need Houston to win one more game. Rockets remaining games are against the Hornets and Wizards, neither of which are world beaters...so it's not impossible.

To those saying it doesn't matter...it may seem insignificant but the difference between finishing in 3rd instead of 2nd is basically a 6% higher chance of falling into 6th, and a 7% chance of falling as far as 7th. I'd rather keep that 13% percentage in the Spurs favor in case we don't manage to land a top 4 pick.

It would be a real pain in the ass for this tank to result in pick #7, but that would literally be impossible if Spurs finish 2nd worst.

That said, I'm calling it now...Spurs are gonna end up tied with the Rockets and lose the coin-flip to end up in 3rd. At that point, it's up to the lottery gods.
Why does your chart (or the chart you posted) have Charlotte physically posted below the Spurs?

And if the Spurs land Wemby is the a chart that shows how many drinks and celebrations will happen among a % of SpursTalk.

Whereas if we fall to 6th or 7th what % will drown their disappointment in pizza and tequila? Hey that could also be the winning Wemby consumption.

[Dex]

Why does your chart (or the chart you posted) have Charlotte physically posted below the Spurs?


Because when I made the chart, Charlotte was the closest in terms of Tragic Number and I've been too lazy to change it tbh

[MultiTroll]

I'll pass on attacking the looks, and it's one thing calling an NBA commissioner corrupt, but what Stern's religion has to do with anything here exactly? "Part vulcan, part jew", Like jew was about apparence, oldest antisemitic cliché...
https://youtu.be/egAMgNY84do
https://youtu.be/egAMgNY84do

[Dex]

That's where it stands right now. Do you really think #6 is substantially better than #7? I don't. I also think if we get 6 or 7, the Spurs will get a pretty good player off their board, since I'm nearly sure both twins are not in their top 10, and both will be gone by that point. That's also why I'm not averse to trading back.

At this point, I'm all for guaranteeing the best odds possible...not only at top 4 (which is already accomplished), but also from falling out of top 5. I'd prefer for us not to even be in the 6 or 7 conversation but that ship has sailed.

[The Truth #6]

Big picture we tanked and are in the bottom 3 without completely losing the team. The young guys get along, players have shown progress. I can’t complain too much. I suppose we have slightly lower odds for picks 2-5 or so but they put up a horrific season with a negative point differential for the ages.

[Dejounte]

Big picture we tanked and are in the bottom 3 without completely losing the team. The young guys get along, players have shown progress. I can’t complain too much. I suppose we have slightly lower odds for picks 2-5 or so but they put up a horrific season with a negative point differential for the ages.

We don’t have lower odds for picks 2-4 for being at 3rd place.

[exstatic]

At this point, I'm all for guaranteeing the best odds possible...not only at top 4 (which is already accomplished), but also from falling out of top 5. I'd prefer for us not to even be in the 6 or 7 conversation but that ship has sailed.

Why is 5 better? Honestly, anything below 3 is not good. The ONLY thing we have going for us if we drop is the inexplicable infatuation with the Thompson Twins. Them being picked in the 4-5 range will allow real players to drop.

[exstatic]

Big picture we tanked and are in the bottom 3 without completely losing the team. The young guys get along, players have shown progress. I can’t complain too much. I suppose we have slightly lower odds for picks 2-5 or so but they put up a horrific season with a negative point differential for the ages.

Pick 1-4 odds are identical for 1,2,3. At position 3, we have smaller odds for 5 (14.8%), greater odds for 6 (26%), and a sliver (7%) odds, for pick 7. It's funny that a pack of posters think we will never get Wemby at 14%, but are sure to fall to #7 at 7%. :lol

[buttsR4rebounding]

https://i.imgur.com/uYUlWB3.png

Spurs still have a long-shot at securing the 2nd worst spot, but would need to lose out and need Houston to win one more game. Rockets remaining games are against the Hornets and Wizards, neither of which are world beaters...so it's not impossible.

To those saying it doesn't matter...it may seem insignificant but the difference between finishing in 3rd instead of 2nd is basically a 6% higher chance of falling into 6th, and a 7% chance of falling as far as 7th. I'd rather keep that 13% percentage in the Spurs favor in case we don't manage to land a top 4 pick.

It would be a real pain in the ass for this tank to result in pick #7, but that would literally be impossible if Spurs finish 2nd worst.

That said, I'm calling it now...Spurs are gonna end up tied with the Rockets and lose the coin-flip to end up in 3rd. At that point, it's up to the lottery gods.

There is no coin flip unless both Houston and San Antonio get kicked out of the top 4. Otherwise whichever team secures the higher pick in the 1st round receives the lower pick in the 2nd round.

[exstatic]

There is no coin flip unless both Houston and San Antonio get kicked out of the top 4. Otherwise whichever team secures the higher pick in the 1st round receives the lower pick in the 2nd round.

There absolutely IS a coin flip, pre-lottery, if they're tied. That's what we're talking about. All ties MUST be broken before the lottery takes place. That is done by coin flip in ALL cases. That determines which team has the pre-lottery odds of the #2 spot, worst case of #6 spot post lottery, and which team has the odds of the #3 spot, worst case of #7 overall post lottery. Whoever wins the flip gets #2 lottery odds, and the #33 SRP. The loser of the flip gets #3 lottery odds and the #32 SRP.

Your theory of higher pick, lower second pick is wrong. We could lose the coin flip, be assigned #3 pre lottery position and be assigned #32 pick, WIN THE LOTTERY, and we would still be picking at #32 in the second round. The second round is set before the lottery, strictly by record, taking into account coin flip tiebreakers, which are reversed in the second round.

[MultiTroll]

Cool beans how Spurs control own fate to make it to the coin flip.
Lose all 3, at worst we get the 50/50 flip.

Dallas may be in mega tank mode by the final game? With the protected top 10 pick?
If they're sitting at 10 on the final game wow that could be a real Tank vs Tank if Pop does the right thing.

[rjv]

spurs have a really good shot at beating portland and dallas-especially if we bring back some of the starters for the austin games.

[buttsR4rebounding]

There absolutely IS a coin flip, pre-lottery, if they're tied. That's what we're talking about. All ties MUST be broken before the lottery takes place. That is done by coin flip in ALL cases. That determines which team has the pre-lottery odds of the #2 spot, worst case of #6 spot post lottery, and which team has the odds of the #3 spot, worst case of #7 overall post lottery. Whoever wins the flip gets #2 lottery odds, and the #33 SRP. The loser of the flip gets #3 lottery odds and the #32 SRP.

Your theory of higher pick, lower second pick is wrong. We could lose the coin flip, be assigned #3 pre lottery position and be assigned #32 pick, WIN THE LOTTERY, and we would still be picking at #32 in the second round. The second round is set before the lottery, strictly by record, taking into account coin flip tiebreakers, which are reversed in the second round.

Thank you.

[Dex]

https://i.imgur.com/ibpN9q4.png

Well ladies and gentlemen, that's all she wrote!

After a tank-tastic season, the Spurs are officially tied with the Houston Rockets for the 2nd worst record in the NBA.

It's a tad frustrating we couldn't squeak out one more loss to secure 2nd outright, but just bad luck/timing that we ended up going against a Mavericks team that went from the Western Conference Finals last season to actually tanking harder than San Antonio in their last couple games.

Kidd outright admitted to trying to throw the game against the Bulls on Friday (which now has garnered an investigation by the NBA), and Mavs followed that up with a 42-14 first quarter against the end of the Spurs bench on Sunday. That's some next level losing.

Either way, for tanking purposes it is hard to complain about being tied for 2nd worst. Now we all look forward to May 16th and pray to the lottery gods.

Does anyone know when they do the coin flip?

[exstatic]

https://i.imgur.com/ibpN9q4.png

Well ladies and gentlemen, that's all she wrote!

After a tank-tastic season, the Spurs are officially tied with the Houston Rockets for the 2nd worst record in the NBA.

It's a tad frustrating we couldn't squeak out one more loss to secure 2nd outright, but just bad luck/timing that we ended up going against a Mavericks team that went from the Western Conference Finals last season to actually tanking harder than San Antonio in their last couple games.

Kidd outright admitted to trying to throw the game against the Bulls on Friday (which now has garnered an investigation by the NBA), and Mavs followed that up with a 42-14 first quarter against the end of the Spurs bench on Sunday. That's some next level losing.

Either way, for tanking purposes it is hard to complain about being tied for 2nd worst. Now we all look forward to May 16th and pray to the lottery gods.

Does anyone know when they do the coin flip?

Someone said that the draft tiebreakers were settled about a week after the end of the regular season last year. I'm sure TaT will have them shortly after they are resolved.