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Go CHA! Thanks for this....yeah I was thinking 2 was our 'magic' I mean 'tragic' number. We got this!
This has been discussed in game threads and other spots but might as well make it official (shout out to exstatic and others for keeping up with this)
I usually try to make a yearly Magic Number thread, but this year the focus has shifted so I present to you...the chase for the Tragic Number:
There are 4 teams officially locked into the bottom 4 spots in the standings. The next closest team is Orlando who is currently 8 losses behind Charlotte, but only have 7 left to play.
As we see, any combination of 2 Spurs losses OR Charlotte wins guarantees the Spurs will finish in the bottom 3 and have a 14% chance at the #1 overall pick (the best possible odds). This currently seems to be the most likely scenario.
The Spurs could still mathematically out-tank Houston and Detroit for a bottom 2 spot, but they would need some help. Even if the Spurs lose their remaining 7 games, we would still be counting on two tanking teams to win multiple games. It's definitely unlikely, but worth watching as we go down the stretch. If those teams mess around and win some games, things could get interesting.
Go CHA! Thanks for this....yeah I was thinking 2 was our 'magic' I mean 'tragic' number. We got this!
Still time to catch HOU.
Tragic Number
Nice.
I'm no draftnik, but there doesn't appear to be a huge difference between picks 5/6/7. If that is true, the Spurs "catching" Houston or Detroit isn't all that important. All three teams have identical odds for each of the top 4 slots.
Someone who gets it.Tragic Number
Nice.
I'm no draftnik, but there doesn't appear to be a huge difference between picks 5/6/7. If that is true, the Spurs "catching" Houston or Detroit isn't all that important. All three teams have identical odds for each of the top 4 slots.
I don't love the slim possibility of being able to drop all the way to pick 7...but if you had told us we would finish in the bottom 3 at the beginning of the season, I think most of us would be happy with that.Tragic Number
Nice.
I'm no draftnik, but there doesn't appear to be a huge difference between picks 5/6/7. If that is true, the Spurs "catching" Houston or Detroit isn't all that important. All three teams have identical odds for each of the top 4 slots.
I continue to be baffled as to why some think this. They could end up in that range and we could easily look back x years from now and realize that there was a significant drop off right before they picked (of course they'll be surprises sprinkled in further down).Tragic Number
Nice.
I'm no draftnik, but there doesn't appear to be a huge difference between picks 5/6/7. If that is true, the Spurs "catching" Houston or Detroit isn't all that important. All three teams have identical odds for each of the top 4 slots.
Dex took Magic # a step further and gave us the scenario odds for all finishes.
Props to Dex.
While I'm much more confortable now with the great likelyhood we close at least 3rd, still want to see the clincher happen.
For you poker players, the River has not been laid down yet. We've all seen the bull 1 and 2 outers that occur.
So finish this out Pop.
For those who say it IS an absolute slam, well a week ago Houston beat the Spurs twice. Next the Spurs beat at the time #1 Denver then rolled Orlando for 2 of 3.
WTH is going on in the NBA, no one knows for sure. Perhaps PATFO are taking no chances with Stern Jr. and the Lakers-Warriors pulling their bread and butter bull . Cheating. I don't want to see some *Investigashun* by Stern Jr. No i don't believe that will happen but i do believe their is a 1% chance those corrupt phucks would consider it to get Wama to the Lakers or Lakers North.
How many times to we have to explain to your dumb ass that the Lakers cannot come out of this draft with Wembanyama?
Add a little more fiber to your diet and perhaps a half a Midol is in order.
How many times do you have to have explained Kwame for MVPau, Lakers - Kings 2002, Zaza, etc.
I never stated it HAD to be via draft, since the Lakers don't own their 1st pick.
#1 picks have been traded before.
If some owner was videotaped being serviced at a Laker owned / Laker ran/ Warrior influenced casino, chit can and has happened.
This is a draft discussion thread. Fret about your conspiracies elsewhere.
Oh and no one is trading Wemby for anything the Lakers have or have on the horizon. They’re washed, and will be for some time.
Rrrrrrright? And baffled as to why some people have defini ely decreted that there's no difference between 5/6/7 even before workouts and combine... Of course you want the highest pick no matter what. One spot could make a huge difference.
Your fold is accepted.
And nobodys trading MVPau for Kwame Brown. Just didn't happen.
Most get it I think. Even me who has been vocal on tracking this for a while understands bottom 3 was 99% of the goal. Anything else is chips fall where they may IMO. Spurs did their job; Im fine finishing 3rd, especially since odds of getting pick 7 anyways are super low. It’s not much different than odds at pick 5/6 even if HOU leaps SA
There’s no doubt I rather have pick 6 than 7, it could be a difference; just that it was the lesser of the important things and that is harder to control. Im rooting for HOU to leap SA, think it’s possible if SA loses 2 of the UTA, POR & DAL games. But I wont be devastated if it doesn’t happen.
Detroit lost by 9, and Houston down big late in the 4th. No help tonight.
We don’t actually need help. By Saturday morning, we could have two more losses, and wrap this up, sooner if CHA wins again.
I'm still hopeful for that #2 spot.
Don't see any way we catch Detroit.
That only matters if you're accurately able to differentiate the better prospects from the worse ones. If you can't confidently tell them apart ahead of the draft, then it makes no difference where you pick EVEN if there was a significant gap, because your chances of coming away with either are about the same.
It's not too big a deal IMO when the talent curve seems to flatten out at after the top 3. The #2 and #3 spot have the exact same odds at picks 1-4, but if the #2 spot drops out of the top 4 it's a 58% chance they pick #5 and 42% they pick #6 while for the #3 spot if they drop out of the top 4 it's a 31% chance they pick #5, a 54.3% chance they pick #6, and a 14.7% chance they pick #7. And even if draft position was a big deal after the top 4, the #2 spot's expected value for the pick if they miss the top 4 is 5.42 while the #3's expected value for the pick if missing the top 4 is 5.84. So the #2 spot over the #3 spot is worth less than half a draft spot on average if you condition on not making the top 4.
Last edited by baseline bum; 03-27-2023 at 09:24 PM.
HOU and DET play each other this Friday. Somebody has to win
Expecting the first tie in NBA history tbhHOU and DET play each other this Friday. Somebody has to win
Correct me if I’m wrong, I think HOU holds the tie-breaker with the better division record? In the event Rockets and Spurs ended with the same record, the Spurs get the 2nd worst record?
No tie breakers like that for picks, it's a coin flip I think. Those kind of head to head / division / conference won-loss tie breakers are only for playoff seeding.
EDIT: nevermind, already made that point in this thread
2 spot is 14% and 3 spot is the same. Why would it matter? Meaning are there any advantages?
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