State poll thread index

[Tommy Duncan]

I think it will be interesting to get a perspective on how this election is playing out on a state by state basis. After all, this is a tad bit more relevant to the current presidential election than discussing whether or not the Neocons intend to invade Mars for the benefit of the Illuminati or whatever.

I've created threads for states which have had a recent poll with a spread of less than 10%. If such a poll appears for a state not on the list, then I will create a thread for that state.


Arkansas (http://p090.ezboard.com/ffullsportpressfrm25.showMessage?topicID=1919.topi c) 6 EV
Arizona (http://p090.ezboard.com/ffullsportpressfrm25.showMessage?topicID=1922.topi c) 10 EV
California (http://p090.ezboard.com/ffullsportpressfrm25.showMessage?topicID=1925.topi c) 55 EV
Colorado (http://p090.ezboard.com/ffullsportpressfrm25.showMessage?topicID=1921.topi c) 9 EV
Connecticut (http://p090.ezboard.com/ffullsportpressfrm25.showMessage?topicID=1992.topi c) 7 EV
Delaware (http://p090.ezboard.com/ffullsportpressfrm25.showMessage?topicID=2079.topi c) 3 EV
Florida (http://p090.ezboard.com/ffullsportpressfrm25.showMessage?topicID=1894.topi c) 27 EV
Illinois (http://p090.ezboard.com/ffullsportpressfrm25.showMessage?topicID=1888.topi c) 21 EV
Iowa (http://p090.ezboard.com/ffullsportpressfrm25.showMessage?topicID=1912.topi c) 7 EV
Maine (http://p090.ezboard.com/ffullsportpressfrm25.showMessage?topicID=1913.topi c) 4 EV
Maryland (http://p090.ezboard.com/ffullsportpressfrm25.showMessage?topicID=2001.topi c) 10 EV
Michigan (http://p090.ezboard.com/ffullsportpressfrm25.showMessage?topicID=1896.topi c) 17 EV
Minnesota (http://p090.ezboard.com/ffullsportpressfrm25.showMessage?topicID=1892.topi c) 10 EV
Missouri (http://p090.ezboard.com/ffullsportpressfrm25.showMessage?topicID=1899.topi c) 11 EV
Nevada (http://p090.ezboard.com/ffullsportpressfrm25.showMessage?topicID=1897.topi c) 5 EV
New Hampshire (http://p090.ezboard.com/ffullsportpressfrm25.showMessage?topicID=1917.topi c) 4 EV
New Jersey (http://p090.ezboard.com/ffullsportpressfrm25.showMessage?topicID=1891.topi c) 15 EV
New Mexico (http://p090.ezboard.com/ffullsportpressfrm25.showMessage?topicID=1916.topi c) 5 EV
New York (http://p090.ezboard.com/ffullsportpressfrm25.showMessage?topicID=1898.topi c) 31 EV
North Carolina (http://p090.ezboard.com/ffullsportpressfrm25.showMessage?topicID=1926.topi c) 15 EV
Ohio (http://p090.ezboard.com/ffullsportpressfrm25.showMessage?topicID=1895.topi c) 20 EV
Oregon (http://p090.ezboard.com/ffullsportpressfrm25.showMessage?topicID=1923.topi c) 7 EV
Pennsylvania (http://p090.ezboard.com/ffullsportpressfrm25.showMessage?topicID=1893.topi c) 21 EV
South Carolina (http://p090.ezboard.com/ffullsportpressfrm25.showMessage?topicID=2010.topi c) 8 EV
Tennessee (http://p090.ezboard.com/ffullsportpressfrm25.showMessage?topicID=1924.topi c) 11 EV
Virginia (http://p090.ezboard.com/ffullsportpressfrm25.showMessage?topicID=1927.topi c) 13 EV
Washington state (http://p090.ezboard.com/ffullsportpressfrm25.showMessage?topicID=1920.topi c) 11 EV
West Virginia (http://p090.ezboard.com/ffullsportpressfrm25.showMessage?topicID=1915.topi c) 5 EV
Wisconsin (http://p090.ezboard.com/ffullsportpressfrm25.showMessage?topicID=1911.topi c) 10 EV

[Joe Chalupa]

Thanks for stating your position.

[Joe Chalupa]

Maybe it is just your current state of mind.

[DeSPURado]

Man you mean you could have done it, in one thread?

[Tommy Duncan]

Um no, nagging bitch.

[DeSPURado]

Quit spamming then.

[Tommy Duncan]

Excuse me? Sorry if I am not obsessed with what Bush did 30 years ago.

[DeSPURado]

How many threads were created on that topic in the last week. I counted 3.

[Joe Chalupa]

Bring it on Tommy!

[Tommy Duncan]

Good for you. You've posted incessantly in here about the Bush Guard crap that no one really cares about.

[DeSPURado]

You mean the most popular thread in the politics forum ever?

[Tommy Duncan]

1. Who started it?

2. It was about the docs being fake.

[DeSPURado]

The docs being fake related to what?

[Yonivore]

Related to something Dan Rather made up.

[Tommy Duncan]

That wasn't the primary issue.

[DeSPURado]

Dan Rather made it up? Gee I thought Burkett faxed it to him.

[Yonivore]

And, gee, Rather was warned by everyone to whom he showed the documents that there were SERIOUS questions to their authenticity -- yet, he chose to present them on national T.V. as being the real deal.

Yeah, Dan Rather lied! Big Time.

[DeSPURado]

He messed up, You can't say he lied. Nor can you prove it.

[Yonivore]

Okay, as a journalist...he showed documents to experts who told him they thought they were fakes. He found one that said the signature looked real but that he could not authenticate the provenance of the documents becuase they were copies of copies of...you get it.

So, he goes on national television and says the documents are real, that an expert has authenticated them, and that's that. Nothing about the dissenters.

A non-biased journalist would have also revealed the questions raised.

He lied. His ratings are already showing the public believes he lied. And, the polls are already showing they believe Kerry or his campaign were involved.

Yep, he lied. He withheld exculpatory information because he believed the story he was trying to tell was true but he didn't have any facts to support it...so, he took documents of extremely questionable origin and used them as support for a Dan Rather theory.

I saw an appropriate analogy earlier today:

"A lot of scientific fraud cases are like this. Someone becomes convinced that a theory is true, becomes frustrated in his efforts to prove it and decides to fabricate the evidence to prove it. It is unlikely that Dan Rather did the fabricating, but Rather is like the head of the lab that disregarded all clues that fraud was occurring. Under such circumstances the rules in science would be that Rather would get dismissed too."

[Joe Chalupa]

In Rather's defense...he reported based on the intelligence he had at the time.
Things like this happen.
Sincerely,
Dubya

[exstatic]

^^RACK THAT!!^^
:rollin :rollin :rollin :rollin :rollin :rollin :rollin

[Yonivore]

The difference between Rather and what your implying, with your pithy little comment, is that there are no negative consequence to Rather waiting until he had definitive proof...unless it was his purpose to damage Bush and help Kerry, which is a bigger problem than just rushing to air with a story based on questionable intelligence.

[Tommy Duncan]

Please direct your posts about Dan Rather, Bush's missed meeting 30 years ago, and what not to here (http://p090.ezboard.com/ffullsportpressfrm25.showMessageRange?topicID=1844 .topic&start=501&stop=504). Thanks.

[Joe Chalupa]

Oh come on Yonivore.

My little comment was funny. :p

[Nbadan]

Someone needs to get a administrator to sticky this post on top of the forum for awhile. Anyone?

[Tommy Duncan]

email Kori.

[SpursWoman]

I already did...she's been away from the forum this afternoon.

[Tommy Duncan]

Thanks Kori and SW.

[afe7FATMAN]

Hey Joe

I Liked your joke,

however, did Dan & GWB both have an ulterior motive?

[CrazyOne]

Joe... I laughed... but now I hate myself for it... :depressed

Think I need to drown my guilt in a twelve-pack with Mouse.

[Nbadan]

New Zogby Poll - Bush Continues To Hold Slim Lead Over Kerry (46%-43%);

released: Sunday, Sept. 19

Bush approval rating: 47%

Zogby (http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=867)

--

This is totally doable guys. Incumbents don't get re elected with approval ratings under 50%.

[Tommy Duncan]

First off acting like the 50% level is some kind of absolute minimum is dumb. Bush41 and Carter had approval ratings in the 30s, for example. Again, your attitude typifies the DNC/Kerry campaign approach to this election which was to make it one about Bush personally. That was dumb on multiple fronts, namely that a campaign facing a sitting president is always a vote on the performance of that president and that frankly Bush is a more likable individual than Kerry. Kerry exudes nothing except he wants to be president because he's always wanted to be president. Too bad the Demo base was so embuided with its hatred for the sitting president that it thought nominating a Vietnam vet to run against him would destroy him personally.

As for the other often heard presidential campaign loser themes of "our base's turnout will be high/we're registering voters like mad" one of Dean's minions registered me to vote this past weekend.

Anyways, here are what other national polls have for Bush's job approval rating...

CBS News/NYTimes (http://www.cbsnews.com/htdocs/CBSNews_polls/poll0917.pdf) 50% job approval

CNN/USAToday/Gallup (http://www.usatoday.com/news/politicselections/nation/polls/2004-09-17-gallup-poll.htm) 52% approval

Rasmussen (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Bush_Job_Approval.htm) 53%

Annenberg (http://www.annenbergpublicpolicycenter.org/naes/2004_03_Bush-Suffers-Among-Persuadables_9-15_pr.pdf) 52%

Time (http://www.time.com/time/election2004/article/0,18471,695528,00.html) 56%

and so on.

[Nbadan]

Bush41 had End-of Presidency approval ratings in the 50's which is way better than I expect W's approval rating to average for the remainder of this election cycle...

End-of Presidency Job Approval Ratings

Bill Clinton (2001) 65%
Ronald Reagan (1989) 64
Dwight Eisenhower (1961) 59
John F. Kennedy (1963) 63
George Bush (1993) 56
Gerald Ford (1977) 53
Lyndon Johnson (1969) 49
Jimmy Carter (1981) 34
Richard Nixon (1974) 24

About.com (http://uspolitics.about.com/library/bl_approval.htm)

Date Organization Approve Disapprove No Opinion Sample Size Notes

President G.W. Bush

8/26-29/04 ABC/WP 50 47 3 1207
8/24-25/04 Fox/OpinDynamics 51 43 6 1000 LV
8/23-25/04 NBC/WSJ 47 48 5 806
8/23-25/04 Gallup/CNN/USA 49 47 4 1004
8/21-24/04 LATimes 52 47 1 1597 RV
8/15-17/04 Battleground 2004 51 46 2 1000 LV
8/15-18/04 CBS 46 45 9 1009
8/10-15/04 Harris 48 51 1 1012
8/9-11/04 Gallup 51 46 3 1017
8/5-10/04 PSRA/Pew/CCFR 46 45 9 1512
8/5-10/04 PSRA/Pew 46 45 9 1512
8/3-4/04 Fox/OpinDynamics 44 48 8 900 RV
8/2-5/04 Democracy Corps 47 50 3 1013
8/2-5/04 TIPP/IBD/CSM 43 49 8 938
7/30-8/1/04 ARG 43 50 7 1100
7/30-8/1/04 CBS 44 49 7 1052
7/30-8/1/04 ABC/WP 46 49 5 1200
7/30-8/1/04 Gallup/CNN/USA 48 49 3 1518
7/30-31/04 Gallup/CNN/USA 47 49 4 1011
7/30-8/2/04 Marist 41 55 4 1075
7/29-30/04 PSRA/Newsweek 45 49 6 1190
7/19-21/04 NBC/WSJ 48 46 6 813 RV
7/17-21/04 LATimes 51 48 1 1788 RL
7/8-11/04 Gallup 47 49 4 1005
7/8-11/04 WashPost 48 50 2 850
7/8-9/04 PSRA/Newsweek 48 46 6 1169
7/6-10/04 TIPP/IBD/CSM 43 48 9 944
7/1-3/04 Amer. Res. Group 44 50 6 1100
6/25-28/04 NBC/WSJ 45 49 6 1025 RV
6/23-27/04 CBS/NYT 42 51 7 1053
6/22-23/04 Fox/OpinDynamics 49 44 7 900 RV


Note: RV = Registered Voters; LV = Likely Voters

The Roper Center (http://roperweb.ropercenter.uconn.edu/cgi-bin/hsrun.exe/roperweb/PresJobRatings40/PresJobRatings40.htx;start=HS_presapproval_home)

[Tommy Duncan]

Not during the election did he. In 1993 it was everyone feel good about the old man now that he's gone.

[Tommy Duncan]

www.rotten.com/library/bi...e-hw-bush/ (http://www.rotten.com/library/bio/presidents/george-hw-bush/)


Okey dokey. Perhaps unsurprisingly, Bush had relentlessly pissed away his unprecedented approval ratings over the previous 18 months, and with them went his lead in the election polls. In his last question of the final Presidential debate, he had to explain why his approval rating had been cut in half:


REPORTER: Mr. President, why have you dropped so dramatically in the leadership polls, from the high 80s to the 40s? And you have said that you will do anything you have to do to get reelected. What can you do in two weeks to win reelection?


Bush41's ratings ended up in the 30s on election day from what I remember. Of course they started to improve once he left office because the man was likable otherwise. The problem for the Demos this year, much like the GOP in 1996 is that they are attacking a likable president personally. In 1992 Clinton and Perot were attacking Bush on his record in office.

[Tommy Duncan]

Forget 30s GHWB was hitting the 20s by the time of the GOP convention. So much for another forum liberal wet dream.

ap.grolier.com/article?as...ticle.html (http://ap.grolier.com/article?assetid=0068080-00&templatename=/article/article.html)


At first Bush's reelection prospects in 1992 seemed promising, but voters began to focus more on their fears about the U.S. economy than on Bush's international successes. Patrick Buchanan, a conservative newspaper columnist, challenged Bush for the GOP (Grand Old Party) presidential nomination, attacking him for reneging on his pledge not to raise taxes. By the time of the Republican convention one survey showed that the president's approval rating had fallen to 29%. Bush and Vice President Quayle were renominated without opposition-Buchanan eventually having endorsed the president-but the strident tone of convention speakers and the party's very conservative platform did not help the national ticket.