2024 Draft Lottery Thread - Sunday May 12, 2024 8:30 ET

[LeBowen]

This is a fair argument but the counter argument is that when you suck you don’t draft out of need. You go with the best prospect and work out the roster logistics later.

Yeah, but none of these guards is a must have prospect.
Topic can't shoot or defend, Dillingham doesn't have NBA body and is an even worse defender. Castle can't shoot at all. Sheppard isn't an actual point guard who can run an offense.

Scoot was a way better prospect and struggled a lot.
If I'm picking someone who's got high bust potential, I'd rather get an athletic wing who could become a solid role player.
All these point guards will be out of the league real soon if they don't live up to their best case scenario potential.

[Russ]

If you look strictly at the post positions, the Spurs get #5 and nothing more (since Toronto gets #6).

Getting #4 and #8 ain't bad.

[slick'81]

Spurs getting that tor pick is fckn gravy:lobt:

[thiste]

This is a fair argument but the counter argument is that when you suck you don’t draft out of need. You go with the best prospect and work out the roster logistics later.

Last year Charlotte didn't pick Scoot who was considered the better player at the time. They made the right choice.

[Leetonidas]

Thanks Masai

[CorrectCrusader]

Happy mothers day ST, make sure to tell your mothers you love them.

Also, LETS GO! 4 and 8! DILLINGHAM AND BUZELIS ARE SPURS!

[td4mvp2k]

I rather Wizards taking Risacher than Rockets getting him. I’m starting to hate Rockets more and more, and Ime making them better makes it worst.
yup. hope he stays out of Houston. Houston and OKC already set to give spurs problems in the future.

[skin27]

How did the spurs got tor pick? Tor wasnt called before 6th pick actually it was spurs got the 8th pick

[Ariel]

For those concerned about salary cap implications of lottery picks: https://www.spotrac.com/nba/cba/rookie-scale/

https://i.postimg.cc/GhtT95bX/rookie-scale.png

[LeBowen]

How did the spurs got tor pick? Tor wasnt called before 6th pick actually it was spurs got the 8th pick

It said "via Toronto" at the bottom of that card. Same goes for Rockets getting the Nets pick and Blazers getting Warriors pick.

[RC_Drunkford]

wild lottery. I guess Dillingham and one of the wings are in play.

[stnick2261]

It sure was nice of Toronto to tank the 2nd half of the season to give us a better draft pick.

[Ariel]

How did the spurs got tor pick? Tor wasnt called before 6th pick actually it was spurs got the 8th pick
The 8th pick was actually Toronto's, they messed up the reveal by not saying it was the Spurs VIA Toronto (like they didn't say Houston's pick at #3 was actually Brooklyn's).

[Raven]

Great for us.

[manufan10]

1789749336697409968

[TimmehC]

How did the spurs got tor pick? Tor wasnt called before 6th pick actually it was spurs got the 8th pick

Reading is hard

https://i.imgur.com/yWLnq6l.jpeg

[manufan10]

1789750272379511050

[Ariel]

1789749336697409968
I wouldn't be surprised if Atlanta and Washington swapped picks, Sarr makes more sense for Washington and Risacher for Atlanta.

[Bruno]

Great lottery for spurs.

A better result for Spurs would have been getting #1/#2/#3 + the Raptors' pick or #4 + #7.

These outcomes represented 21% of the possible ones. There was 77% of worst outcomes for Spurs.

We got pretty lucky (provided you wanted Raptors' pick this year).

[scott]

I'm with LeBowen here that wing is the smart choice at #4 (though I'm also biased in that I believe we should double up on wings here).

Especially if Risacher goes top 3, take your favorite wing because a run on them will begin. In this case, I take Matas. If Dilly falls to 8 great, though I still might prefer Holland with that pick.

Some immediate thoughts ahead of us:



Atlanta getting #1 is fascinating and really alters the complexion of this offseason. Do they stick with Trae and DJM, or do they still look to move one? For us, it might be best if they take Sarr and decide to run it back. I don't think Sarr will have a huge immediate impact in the W/L column so it should put ATL back in the lottery. On the flip side, this might be the opportunity that Atlanta needs to really retool. They could move one of Trae or DJM and build a more coherent roster around the player that is left and their new #1 pick. Trading DJM probably gives them more options to bring back useful players. But does Atlanta even take Sarr? He seems like the best fit here, but do they perhaps like Clingan more? Or do the try to move on from Hunter and Bey and look at Risacher as an ideal fit next to Jalen Johnson?
What will Washington do?!? Yeah, they "need everything" but they have quite the glut of wings. Deni, Kispert, Bilal, Kuzma. If they like those guys, Risacher might not be the direction they want to go. Their favorite PG *or* Clingan (or Sarr if Atlanta goes another direction) seem to make the most sense. From my personal agenda, I hope they fall in love with and take Topic.
Houston... wow. A lot here might depend on if they view Amen as a PG or a wing. Would they take a guy like Clingan and move Sengun to PF? They are loaded with wing depth already. Brooks, Jabari, Whitmore, Eason, Amen if they view him as a wing... My guess is they probably feel like they want to commit to Green (and I think he has shown enough up to now to do so)... so backup off-guard seems like a bad play. PG? Definitely makes sense with FVV entering the last year of his deal. Houston may look at an opportunity to consolidate some of their young talent and this pick and get a win-now veteran. Back to looking at Bridges? Khris Middleton? Maybe big S&T for Paul George? This might be the kind of scenario that Ainge would love to exploit in a deal for Lauri... this is really fascinating to me.

[skin27]

Reading is hard

https://i.imgur.com/yWLnq6l.jpeg

Oh sorry didnt see because i was got intense.lol

[BacktoBasics]

1789750272379511050

I’d rather not.

[ChumpDumper]

1789749336697409968


1789750272379511050

That wouldn't be terrible. Getting good shooting at least. I wish I had more faith in being able to make Williams or Holland into NBA players.

[Brazil]

That’s a great outcome for the spurs tbh..

[KobesAchilles]

ATL- Saar
Was- Dilly
Hous- Sheppard
Spurs- Risacher
Detroit- Clingan
Charlotte- Castle
Portland- Williams
Spurs- Topic
Memphis- Holland
Utah- Buz

[John B]

Atlanta getting #1 pick would make those FRP’s not as good, compared to if they stayed at top 10 tbh. If Sarr pans out, he’s a big target for Trae and makes Hawks better. Plus the emergence of Jalen Johnson as mobile big. Those unprotected FRP’s may not be lottery picks tbh. Yup that’s the worst thing Hawks getting top pick.

[skin27]

ATL- Saar
Was- Dilly
Hous- Sheppard
Spurs- Risacher
Detroit- Clingan
Charlotte- Castle
Portland- Williams
Spurs- Topic
Memphis- Holland
Utah- Buz

Classic spurs way!! drafting international players:lmao

[SayTown]

Last year, once the first 3 balls had been picked, 6 of the remaining 11 would have sent Victor to the Wizards. Only 1 of those 11 balls would give the Spurs the #1 pick and sure enough it came up.

Having big numbers like 10 and 14 makes it much more likely that teams lower in the lottery order like the Hawks and Rockets move up.

I'm guessing the last ball was something like 11 or 12.

C'mon you know them weighted balls were rigged for us

[exstatic]

Yeah, but none of these guards is a must have prospect.
Topic can't shoot or defend, Dillingham doesn't have NBA body and is an even worse defender. Castle can't shoot at all. Sheppard isn't an actual point guard who can run an offense.

Scoot was a way better prospect and struggled a lot.
If I'm picking someone who's got high bust potential, I'd rather get an athletic wing who could become a solid role player.
All these point guards will be out of the league real soon if they don't live up to their best case scenario potential.

Scoot was HYPED more, but if you paid attention,he couldn’t shoot, and in a league with virtually no shot blockers, he couldn’t finish. There are a group of posters here who didn’t buy the hype, and weren’t at all surprised with his struggles. His 0-3 foot FG% this year was a putrid 50%.

[exstatic]

Atlanta getting #1 pick would make those FRP’s not as good, compared to if they stayed at top 10 tbh. If Sarr pans out, he’s a big target for Trae and makes Hawks better. Plus the emergence of Jalen Johnson as mobile big. Those unprotected FRP’s may not be lottery picks tbh. Yup that’s the worst thing Hawks getting top pick.

Doesn’t matter. They already have an elite lob threat, who they’re now going to have to offload, and they finished in the lottery. They don’t suck because Trae has no one to lob to.

[Kevin]

Doesn’t matter. They already have an elite lob threat, who they’re now going to have to offload, and they finished in the lottery. They don’t suck because Trae has no one to lob to.

Wow I actually agree with you on some Trae Young related.

Sarr won’t positively impact winning this season no matter who drafts him.

[paperboy77]

Atlanta: Sarr
Wizards: Zack
Houston: Clingan (ume really wants a defensive center)

so Spurs will get their choice of guard and probably Cody Williams at eight.

Doesnt that create an issue with featuring Sengun? I guess they can afford getting a solid player.

[SpursGenius]

That wouldn't be terrible. Getting good shooting at least. I wish I had more faith in being able to make Williams or Holland into NBA players.
Do t want that 25 yo late development whiteboy. Rather have Salaun

[RC_Drunkford]

Sarr would at least improve ATL's defense though as Capela has fallen off a cliff there

[scott]

If Atlanta takes Sarr, in the immediate term they're essentially just getting a younger Capela. Sarr may have potential to develop into more, but it won't be in year or probably even in year 2. I'm not too worried about the immediate impact on the 25 pick until Atlanta makes other moves to improve.

[mo7888]

Atlanta getting #1 pick would make those FRP’s not as good, compared to if they stayed at top 10 tbh. If Sarr pans out, he’s a big target for Trae and makes Hawks better. Plus the emergence of Jalen Johnson as mobile big. Those unprotected FRP’s may not be lottery picks tbh. Yup that’s the worst thing Hawks getting top pick.

I don't really think anyone in this draft class can have a big enough impact to make a difference in Atl's season next year.

[SayTown]

Hopefully Dillingham or Risacher at 4 no Sheppard please

[Mal]

Atlants should take Sarr, and rebuild, but they dont have picks, so they may not take him at all.

[TimmyBuckets]

Topic and Risacher let’s goooo

[skin27]

Atlants should take Sarr, and rebuild, but they dont have picks, so they may not take him at all.

They dont need to rebuild.. getting sarr and kaeeping trae would be the beat case scenario for them

[thiste]

My guess is they still offload one of Trae or Dejounte and try and rebuild with the other + Sarr.

[ChumpDumper]

Do t want that 25 yo late development whiteboy. Rather have SalaunYou mean "no development." It would be WYSIWYG. I have to squint to see Salaun's making it as well, but I wouldn't really have a problem with the pick either. I have to adjust my perceptions for what these picks can get this time around.

[Pauleta14]

Sarr is a big target for Trae, plus his rim defense, on top of DJ help defense. I’d draft Sarr if I were Hawks.

yep but just imagine how much smarter it would be to trade Trae for the big elite guy they need (and more) and replace him by a younger and maybe better and CHEAPER version?

I might just be jinxing subconsiously but I think Dilli could be the best talent of this draft (recently saw a clip of him eating the Thomson brothers a year ago, he's 2y younger!)

[John B]

The Draft Combine and individual workouts will be huge. I’m hoping Spurs scouts will do their diligence. No more Josh Primo, Samanic, and Joe Dirt (already forgot his name) all performed well at the Combine and falling short.

[exstatic]

I don't really think anyone in this draft class can have a big enough impact to make a difference in Atl's season next year.

The exact reason that this is a good draft to get a high pick, and still be positioned to pick high next year.

[John B]

Topic and Risacher let’s goooo

Risacher and Topic could very well be Spurs picks. Wemby/Topic/Risacher international players like the Big 3

[Barfunk]

We already got Wemby. These picks are icing!

[BackHome]

The exact reason that this is a good draft to get a high pick, and still be positioned to pick high next year.

I was thinking the same thing as most of these picks are going to be in G League for the majority of there first year so no impact on current teams. I am pretty sure that next year lotto will be very similar to this one barring the Atlanta crazily getting the first pick...

[Mr. Body]

Pretty great result for us. As said, I wasn't enamored with the top 3 picks. Getting the TOR pick is nice gravy. We need the help and there will be a good player there.

ATL - I'm not too bothered by them getting Sarr (maybe). If anything, the pick may make them think they can stay pat, which will just keep them bad. Still think they need to get rid of Murray.

HOU - This is the bad one. They have so much talent. A strong center like Clingan or a good shooter will work to round them off.

[lefty20]

Who is the basketball prospect version of Penix Jr? Buy that bro a ticket to Atl rn.

[The Truth #6]

Atlanta isn't winning shit next year. But the basketball gods won't give ATL (us) the #1 pick next year in the lottery, either

[jjspur]

When was the last year that the worst team got the best pick ? Seems like its been a while. Sucks if you're Detroit and move from like the worst or 2nd worst, to the number 5 pick. Sucks for Detroit , good for us even if we just moved up 1 spot.

[thiste]

Sam Vecenie live rn with a mock draft, they have Risacher at #4 and Dillingham at #8 for us:


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QuRfd6PyqIo

[T Park]

Knecht is NBA ready now and would be a fantastic guy off the bench,

Dillingham has to be the guy, he’s THE point guard to allow you to go all in on a wing. Fantastic result.

[itzsoweezee]

Atlanta isn't winning shit next year. But the basketball gods won't give ATL (us) the #1 pick next year in the lottery, either

That’s ok. A lot of great prospects next year

[DesignatedT]

I wouldn’t mind Dilly and Knecht as it injects some immediate shooting into the roster; however, they will need to add some plus defenders to the roster here at some point.

[BacktoBasics]

I wouldn’t mind Dilly and Knecht as it injects some immediate shooting into the roster; however, they will need to add some plus defenders to the roster here at some point.

Knecht doesn’t strike me as a guy who’s gonna be anything more than what he already is. I rather see us take a bigger swing.

[Mal]

Knecht doesn’t strike me as a guy who’s gonna be anything more than what he already is. I rather see us take a bigger swing.

I would prefer Knecht, rather another swing who will be behind Brahnam and Wesley or Collins at the beginning.

[exstatic]

When was the last year that the worst team got the best pick ? Seems like its been a while. Sucks if you're Detroit and move from like the worst or 2nd worst, to the number 5 pick. Sucks for Detroit , good for us even if we just moved up 1 spot.

It hasn’t happened since the new flat odds lottery was implemented in 2019 for the Zion draft. 2 and 3 seem to win a lot.

The reality is that it’s a coin flip if any of the top 4 teams stay there, and this is the second draft under the new system where 3 of the 4 didn’t.

[Pauleta14]

Knecht doesn’t strike me as a guy who’s gonna be anything more than what he already is. I rather see us take a bigger swing.

Same

I'd hate to see OKC taking Cody Wiliams for ex. I know I'm in the minority on ST but I love his potential and amazing body (length and wingspan)

[RC_Drunkford]

I just hope we get Dilly. To me he‘s by far the player with the highest ceiling, especially with his self creation ability. Wings are plenty to pick from and one will be there at 8

[DesignatedT]

Dilly and Sheppard looked so small standing there next to Castle today. I’ll be looking out for their measurements.

[LeBowen]

I just hope we get Dilly. To me he‘s by far the player with the highest ceiling, especially with his self creation ability. Wings are plenty to pick from and one will be there at 8

But then again if they're really sure about a wing being the real deal, I'd rather have an all-star wing than an all-star point guard.
Combine and workouts will decide their choice. We can only hope they improve their recent draft record.

As I said already, I can't see Pistons, Hornets or Blazers picking Dillingham or even Topic.
If they're available at #4, they'll be available at #8.

Also, if these point guards don't impress them enough, just draft two wings and get DJ/Monk/Tyus.
I'm dreaming of a roster that has Wemby surrounded with long, 3-D wings. Tre and a veteran could do the job for one more year.
It's not like a rookie point guard will make the difference.

[Mr. Body]

I don't know if I see Risacher going to Washington. They're stuffed with wings who like to shoot a lot already. At Houston, I then see it Sheppard or Risacher.

[BatManu20]

Atlanta: Sarr
Wizards: Zack
Houston: Clingan (ume really wants a defensive center)

so Spurs will get their choice of guard and probably Cody Williams at eight.

Wemby vs. Clingan will be a big time matchup moving forward. Think HOU definitely takes him.

[skin27]

But then again if they're really sure about a wing being the real deal, I'd rather have an all-star wing than an all-star point guard.
Combine and workouts will decide their choice. We can only hope they improve their recent draft record.

As I said already, I can't see Pistons, Hornets or Blazers picking Dillingham or even Topic.
If they're available at #4, they'll be available at #8.

Also, if these point guards don't impress them enough, just draft two wings and get DJ/Monk/Tyus.
I'm dreaming of a roster that has Wemby surrounded with long, 3-D wings. Tre and a veteran could do the job for one more year.
It's not like a rookie point guard will make the difference.

Well thats only your opinion. The management will most likely go with a PG at 4Th pick.

[LeBowen]

Well thats only your opinion. The management will most likely go with a PG at 4Th pick.

That's your opinion.
Please do explain why would you use #4 pick on a point guard when the teams picking between two of our picks have Cade, Lamelo and Scoot.
And they all need wings.

#4 should be reserved for the best wing available and I'll keep repeating that until the draft night.
#8 would mean that at least two good wings are gone, with point guards still being available.

[Mr. Body]

That's your opinion.
Please do explain why would you use #4 pick on a point guard when the teams picking between two of our picks have Cade, Lamelo and Scoot.
And they all need wings.

#4 should be reserved for the best wing available and I'll keep repeating that until the draft night.
#8 would mean that at least two good wings are gone, with point guards still being available.

The problem with betting on teams in between is that teams can always jump up and grab who you're waiting to drop.

[skin27]

That's your opinion.
Please do explain why would you use #4 pick on a point guard when the teams picking between two of our picks have Cade, Lamelo and Scoot.
And they all need wings.

#4 should be reserved for the best wing available and I'll keep repeating that until the draft night.
#8 would mean that at least two good wings are gone, with point guards still being available.

You cant bet on hoping other teams wont pick this or that player lmao

I bet that dillingham wont be available anymore at 8. Maybe topic still available.

[baseline bum]

I think we'll see:

1. Hawks: Sarr
2: Wiz: Clingan
3. HOU: Risacher
4. Spurs: Topic
5. Pistons: Sheppard

My best guess is

1. Hawks: Sarr
2. Wizards: Risacher
3. Rockets: Sheppard
4. Spurs: Dillingham
5. Pistons: Buzelis
6. Hornets: Castle

Could see Clingan at 6 too. Portland probably should take Clingan at #7 but might not because of sunk cost fallacy with Ayton.

[Duncan2177]

I like Topic at 4 and Cody at 8.

[Mugen]

Just a really great lottery outcome for the Spurs tbh:

-Getting the Raps pick spreads their upcoming first rounders in a much more effective way. You can give heavy minutes to the rookies this next season and still be bad enough to get another shot at a top pick in '25 + another shot with the Atlanta pick WITHOUT actively tanking.
-Moving from 5th best odds to #4
-The three teams ahead of them are very much in play for Sarr or Clingan, two guys that the Spurs have no use for
-The three teams after them don't really have use for a PG

There's a very realistic scenario where the Spurs get Risacher at #4 and Dillingham/Topic at #8


-

[Atl Spur]

We should trade for the bulls 11 this year for our bulls 25 next year & our #2 second this year. We keep their 25 second we own….

[LeBowen]

The problem with betting on teams in between is that teams can always jump up and grab who you're waiting to drop.


You cant bet on hoping other teams wont pick this or that player lmao

I bet that dillingham wont be available anymore at 8. Maybe topic still available.

I'm not betting on them not picking a player, I'm betting on them not picking a certain archetype.

Pistons need everything except for a point guard because Cade has shown he's got all-star potential. Maybe they take Sheppard and have him play off the ball.
Blazers have Scoot and too many guards.
Hornets have Lamelo.

Unless Dillingham looks like the next big thing in workouts, they're not taking him.
Meanwhile, Spurs will have to take third or fourth choice wing with #8 if they draft Dillingham with #4.

Idk, I just don't see Dillingham as a must pick at #4 with three teams with point guards as centerpieces picking after the Spurs.
I guess we'll have to wait and see how it plays out.

[TD 21]

Wemby vs. Clingan will be a big time matchup moving forward. Think HOU definitely takes him.

Clingan is the antithesis of the archetype suited (mobile, stout big wings) to defending Wembanyama.

[Mugen]

For anybody upset that Atlanta won the lottery, some additional thoughts:
-I don't think this really changes the '25 pick that much tbh. They were never going to blow it up with the Spurs owning control over their next 3 picks.
-I also don't think this would increase their leverage in Trae Young trade talks with San Antonio since the Spurs have two top 10 picks including #4 which the Spurs could just use a Trae Young type guy in Dillingham.

They'll most likely trade Dejounte and draft Sarr who will probably need a year or two of development to lift their ceiling. I DO think this will make their '26 or '27 picks worse in theory because Sarr is a good fit for them. But then again it's the Hawks and they can always find a way to f it up.

[exstatic]

Wemby vs. Clingan will be a big time matchup moving forward. Think HOU definitely takes him.

Houston already has a center who can’t defend Wemby.

[baseline bum]

Sheppard is more a Stockton type, while Dillingham is more an Iverson type. I always preferred the stockton, team first, style. But Iverson was a monster. Wouldn't be unhappy with either.

Not as impressed with Risacher as most here. Prefer a Clingham type, especially if we get Dillingham. If we get Sheppard, then maybe add a more offensive/shooter type.

Gonna be interesting.

Sheppard is more a JJ Reddick or Dell Curry IMO, not really a PG but a dependable shooter. I wish there was a Stockton in this draft, he's so underrated when looking at Utah's success. Dillingham I see more like an Eric Bledsoe with better range.

[Mugen]

My best guess is

1. Hawks: Sarr
2. Wizards: Risacher
3. Rockets: Sheppard
4. Spurs: Dillingham
5. Pistons: Buzelis
6. Hornets: Castle

Could see Clingan at 6 too. Portland probably should take Clingan at #7 but might not because of sunk cost fallacy with Ayton.

Gonna revamp my real time mock to something you might like even more bum...

1. Hawks/Sarr
2. Wizards/Topic - more i think about it, I think Topic screams Wizards pick
3. Rockets/Clingan - I think they'll be real debate about Sheppard here but Ime will push for Clingan (especially if the Wolves make the Finals using KAT/Gobert)
4. Spurs / Risacher
5. Pistons / Buzelis
6. Hornets / Sheppard
7. Blazers / Castle
8. Spurs / Dillingham
9. Grizz / Holland
10. Jazz / Knecht

[LeBowen]

Gonna revamp my real time mock to something you might like even more bum...

1. Hawks/Sarr
2. Wizards/Topic - more i think about it, I think Topic screams Wizards pick
3. Rockets/Clingan - I think they'll be real debate about Sheppard here but Ime will push for Clingan (especially if the Wolves make the Finals using KAT/Gobert)
4. Spurs / Risacher
5. Pistons / Buzelis
6. Hornets / Sheppard
7. Blazers / Castle
8. Spurs / Dillingham
9. Grizz / Holland
10. Jazz / Knecht

Risacher and Dillingham would be my dream scenario.
You're right about the Wizards, they need a point guard.
From what I've seen, Rockets fans are content with Sengun being a C and they want some more shooting. Sheppard, Knect or even trading the pick for a proven player.

[TimmyBuckets]

But what would really be amazing would be if we traded for Trae!

[RC_Drunkford]

Gonna revamp my real time mock to something you might like even more bum...

1. Hawks/Sarr
2. Wizards/Topic - more i think about it, I think Topic screams Wizards pick
3. Rockets/Clingan - I think they'll be real debate about Sheppard here but Ime will push for Clingan (especially if the Wolves make the Finals using KAT/Gobert)
4. Spurs / Risacher
5. Pistons / Buzelis
6. Hornets / Sheppard
7. Blazers / Castle
8. Spurs / Dillingham
9. Grizz / Holland
10. Jazz / Knecht

getting Risacher and Dillingham is like having the #1 and #2 pick. That would be a heist. I don't think it's realistic to get both, but one can hope. If the Rockets really want Clingan, I'm pretty sure they would trade down.

[vy65]

One added thing to consider regarding their flexibility: the two second rounders at 35 and 48. 48 may not have much value, but 35 does. Can they package 4, 35, 48 to move to 2 or 3? Maybe not 3 but WAS is early in their rebuild and might like taking 3 bites at the apple. Alternatively, 8, 35, and 48 for 6 or 7? From a roster-management standpoint alone, I just don’t see them taking 4 rookies into training camp.

[CorrectCrusader]

Doesn’t matter. They already have an elite lob threat, who they’re now going to have to offload, and they finished in the lottery. They don’t suck because Trae has no one to lob to.

Capela is pretty washed so Sarr will definitely be an upgrade, it's just a matter of how long it will take

[Gandalf]

One added thing to consider regarding their flexibility: the two second rounders at 35 and 48. 48 may not have much value, but 35 does. Can they package 4, 35, 48 to move to 2 or 3? Maybe not 3 but WAS is early in their rebuild and might like taking 3 bites at the apple. Alternatively, 8, 35, and 48 for 6 or 7? From a roster-management standpoint alone, I just don’t see them taking 4 rookies into training camp.

I don't know if it's feasible, but I would prefer the Spurs be aggressive, even if it's just to turn #8 into #6 or #7. Someone mentioned any point guard available at 4 will be available at 8, but they're assuming no one trades up to jump the Spurs at 8. If we somehow got Risacher at 4 and the Spurs rest on their laurels assuming Dilly will still be there at 8, everyone in the NBA will expect us to pick Dilly at 8--so if anyone wants him, they'll try to trade into 5-7. Hopefully Brian is too smart to let that happen. Jury's still out on that I think.

[ginobilized]

One added thing to consider regarding their flexibility: the two second rounders at 35 and 48. 48 may not have much value, but 35 does. Can they package 4, 35, 48 to move to 2 or 3? Maybe not 3 but WAS is early in their rebuild and might like taking 3 bites at the apple. Alternatively, 8, 35, and 48 for 6 or 7? From a roster-management standpoint alone, I just don’t see them taking 4 rookies into training camp.

Great points! I see WAS as our ally if we trade up from 4. It allows us to block HOU messing with us. Trading up from 8 CHA might be keen, our rights to their '25 pick might be useable here, too. So many scenarios for wheeling and dealing.

[Mugen]

getting Risacher and Dillingham is like having the #1 and #2 pick. That would be a heist. I don't think it's realistic to get both, but one can hope. If the Rockets really want Clingan, I'm pretty sure they would trade down.

I could see the Pistons (Duren is overrated), Hornets (Mark Williams might never be healthy again), and the Blazers (Dominayton) all having a case to draft Clingan.

I think the Rockets could trade #3 but it'd be for a proven player and not to trade down IMO.

[Dex]

Obviously there are a lot of moving pieces here, but it's hard to complain about how things worked out.

The main goal for today was getting the Raptors pick. They literally tanked the end of the season to keep it, and that came up Spurs.

We also moved up a few spots from our own "owed" pick.

After we were gifted luck from the lottery gods last year, I will not go begging any more.

Spurs got players, and picks, and we got our player for the next generation.

LET'S GO!!!

[Dejounte]

Dilly fans won this draft tbh. I don’t see any teams in the top 3 being interested in him. MAYBE Houston, but doubtful. Word is that Ime really wants a strong defensive team and with no Wemby behind him, I don’t think Rob will work in Houston.

[skin27]

Houston already has a center who can’t defend Wemby.

Brooks can defend wemby

[Degoat]

Sam Vecenie podcast pointed out after the spurs pick at 4… Pistons, Hornets, and Trail Blazers shouldn’t go after a guard so if the spurs want to risk it and wait until 8 to draft a guard they could take that chance

[scott]

Sam Vecenie podcast pointed out after the spurs pick at 4… Pistons, Hornets, and Trail Blazers shouldn’t go after a guard so if the spurs want to risk it and wait until 8 to draft a guard they could take that chance

ESPECIALLY if no PG goes in the top 3, then I really think taking a PG at 4 would be just bad game theory management. If the Top 3 go some order of Sarr/Risacher/Clingan, you really should take your top wing - you'll be assured to get one of Dilly/Topic/Sheppard/Castle at 8, and unless one of the teams behind you trades out you may just have your choice of all 4.

[Ariel]

Dilly fans won this draft tbh. I don’t see any teams in the top 3 being interested in him. MAYBE Houston, but doubtful. Word is that Ime really wants a strong defensive team and with no Wemby behind him, I don’t think Rob will work in Houston.
Doesn't look like 5 through 7 (Detroit, Charlotte, Portland) will draft him either, so if the Spurs don't take him at 4 he might still be available at 8, provided no one jumps above the Spurs in anticipation of this exact scenario. But honestly, this gives me Sengun vibes all over... obvious pick, ends up falling into their lap... and they pass for Salaun or some other project that ends up busting out for some stupid reason. Hope I'm wrong.

[Ariel]

One added thing to consider regarding their flexibility: the two second rounders at 35 and 48. 48 may not have much value, but 35 does. Can they package 4, 35, 48 to move to 2 or 3? Maybe not 3 but WAS is early in their rebuild and might like taking 3 bites at the apple. Alternatively, 8, 35, and 48 for 6 or 7? From a roster-management standpoint alone, I just don’t see them taking 4 rookies into training camp.
Washington and Houston would only accept that if they thought they'd stil got their man at 4, because otherwise a couple 2nd rounders it's not enough compensation to pass on your top target. That would only make sense if the Spurs were trying to avoid someone jumping over them to get their target (think OKC moving from 12 to 10 to get Cason Wallace so that no one could trade for Orlando's 11 pick), which doesn't seem to be the case. The other scenario would be someone taking advantage of Spurs perceived target, so that they can extort some assets from the Spurs (think Houston taking Risacher when they actually want Sheppard). Then they offer the Spurs a swap in return for assets (like Indiana did with Coulibaly and Washington). That is one scenario where I could see something like that unfolding, but none of those are actually "good news" in that you'd be giving up assets to get your guy, more like doing so to keep others from fucking you over.

[Mugen]

Houston already has a center who can’t defend Wemby.

The Rockets defended Wemby better than most teams last year tbh

[Dejounte]

The Rockets defended Wemby better than most teams last year tbh

They did. They made Wemby look pitiful. Rockets’ weakness is rim protection against smaller players, not someone like Wemby. Sengun gets a lot of flak from both his teammates and coaches for not being able to defend the rim well.

[baseline bum]

ATL- Saar
Was- Dilly
Hous- Sheppard
Spurs- Risacher
Detroit- Clingan
Charlotte- Castle
Portland- Williams
Spurs- Topic
Memphis- Holland
Utah- Buz

Would definitely be a really nice scenario. I don't mind Topic at 8 if I can get Risacher at 4. I just don't want such a high risk pick as Topic at 4.

[baseline bum]

1789750272379511050

With having a second pick I definitely want upside with the latter pick: Holland, Castle, Buzelis, Topic, or Williams. Could have sold me on Knecht if the Spurs were only getting pick #8 but at #4 they should be able to get some shooting with at least one of Risacher, Dillingham, or Sheppard almost certainly available.

[td4mvp2k]

no way I'm spending the first pick on a guard especially an undersized one in a league full of them

[BatManu20]

I like Knecht, but I don’t see the Spurs drafting a shorter Doug McDermott when we already have Vassell at the 2 tbh. Could be wrong of course. A lot depends on what we do with that 4th pick. But I’d bet we go best wing available at 4 and then hopefully Dilly or Sheppard at 8.

[Knoxxx]

I like Knecht, but I don’t see the Spurs drafting a shorter Doug McDermott when we already have Vassell at the 2 tbh. Could be wrong of course. A lot depends on what we do with that 4th pick. But I’d bet we go best wing available at 4 and then hopefully Dilly or Sheppard at 8.

The beauty of the “weak” draft is that leaves us with 8-10 players at least that nobody hardly thinks are much better than the other. But, these are a mixture of the top college and international players. The idea that they won’t be upgrades to our current roster because it’s a “weak” draft is silly.

[baseline bum]

ESPECIALLY if no PG goes in the top 3, then I really think taking a PG at 4 would be just bad game theory management. If the Top 3 go some order of Sarr/Risacher/Clingan, you really should take your top wing - you'll be assured to get one of Dilly/Topic/Sheppard/Castle at 8, and unless one of the teams behind you trades out you may just have your choice of all 4.

Billy Beane rolling in his grave with this scenario of favoring upside over current skill in both picks. Outside of Risacher I view the wings as high risk high reward guys while Dillingham and Sheppard should at the least be high quality 6th or 7th men and have a good shot of being decent starters. I have a hard time putting Topic in the same class as Dilly and Shep without a jumpshot nor an in between game and think he has a Shanghai Sharks level floor that isn't hard to see him falling to. Castle has a nice floor as a defensive ace and a wildly high ceiling if you can teach him a jumpshot but IMO has a lower expected value of production than Dilly or Shep. If Holland or Buzelis really impress in workouts maybe you have to take one of them #4 but all things being equal as things stand now I expect one of Dilly or Sheppard to be best player available at #4 and both fit an absolute pressing need.

[Dejounte]

The beauty of the “weak” draft is that leaves us with 8-10 players at least that nobody hardly thinks are much better than the other. But, these are a mixture of the top college and international players. The idea that they won’t be upgrades to our current roster because it’s a “weak” draft is silly.

True. The Spurs should finally get their shot creation upgrade they desperately needed all of this past season.

[DAF86]

ESPECIALLY if no PG goes in the top 3, then I really think taking a PG at 4 would be just bad game theory management. If the Top 3 go some order of Sarr/Risacher/Clingan, you really should take your top wing - you'll be assured to get one of Dilly/Topic/Sheppard/Castle at 8, and unless one of the teams behind you trades out you may just have your choice of all 4.

It doesn't work if your top wing is Risacher, tbh.

If the French is already taken, it all depends on how the Spurs see Buzellis. If they are high on him, then you take him (even if a guy like Dilly is higher on their board) because it seems like he's the Pistons target. Seeing how 5 to 7 aren't likely to draft a PG, Dillingham will likely be there at 8, still.

If they aren't high on Buzellis (or any other wing) you just draft your preferred PG and get whatever wing is available at 8 (Knecht, Williams, Holland, etc.).

[scott]

Billy Beane rolling in his grave with this scenario of favoring upside over current skill in both picks. Outside of Risacher I view the wings as high risk high reward guys while Dillingham and Sheppard should at the least be high quality 6th or 7th men and have a good shot of being decent starters. I have a hard time putting Topic in the same class as Dilly and Shep without a jumpshot nor an in between game and think he has a Shanghai Sharks level floor that isn't hard to see him falling to. Castle has a nice floor as a defensive ace and a wildly high ceiling if you can teach him a jumpshot but IMO has a lower expected value of production than Dilly or Shep. If Holland or Buzelis really impress in workouts maybe you have to take one of them #4 but all things being equal as things stand now I expect one of Dilly or Sheppard to be best player available at #4 and both fit an absolute pressing need.

You're higher on the guards than I am. I'm not interested in Topic or Sheppard, and I would rather have Matas or Holland over Dilly. Castle isn't too far behind Dilly, but I'm also not sure if he is really a guard or a wing.

That's just some context for my strategy. Billy Beane and I would be on the same page strategy-wise if we shared the same player evals. Also, why you trying to bury poor Billy alive? :lol

[scott]

It doesn't work if your top wing is Risacher, tbh.

If the French is already taken, it all depends on how the Spurs see Buzellis. If they are high on him, then you take him (even if a guy like Dilly is higher on their board) because it seems like he's the Pistons target. Seeing how 5 to 7 aren't likely to draft a PG, Dillingham will likely be there at 8, still.

If they aren't high on Buzellis (or any other wing) you just draft your preferred PG and get whatever wing is available at 8 (Knecht, Williams, Holland, etc.).

Of course (and my original post should have said "top remaining wing", my apologies. But without knowing the Spurs board (and with all due respect to timvp, I don't think he has any insight either and is just stating his opinions on these players - but if we used timvp's board, he has Cody Williams at 4, in which case you take him and then wait for Dilly at 8), I am only going by mine.

[vy65]

With having a second pick I definitely want upside with the latter pick: Holland, Castle, Buzelis, Topic, or Williams. Could have sold me on Knecht if the Spurs were only getting pick #8 but at #4 they should be able to get some shooting with at least one of Risacher, Dillingham, or Sheppard almost certainly available.

Don’t like Knecht at all. He’s old, entirely duplicative of Vassell, doesn’t have the size to play the three, plays shit defense, and isn’t much of a playmaker. Yes, he can shoot. Yes, he is a 3 level scorer. But the team got torched on the wings defensively. As you point out, they should be able to get one of Holland/Buz/ZR at 4. And, that would leave Topic and/or Reed and/or Dilly there at 8. Unless you get stuck with Holland and Topic, you’re going to get a good amount of shooting with at least one of your picks. You may end up getting shooting and defense depending on how 1-3 go. The team needs size and length and defense on the wings. Knecht doesn’t give us enough of what we need.

[baseline bum]

But then again if they're really sure about a wing being the real deal, I'd rather have an all-star wing than an all-star point guard.
Combine and workouts will decide their choice. We can only hope they improve their recent draft record.

As I said already, I can't see Pistons, Hornets or Blazers picking Dillingham or even Topic.
If they're available at #4, they'll be available at #8.

Also, if these point guards don't impress them enough, just draft two wings and get DJ/Monk/Tyus.
I'm dreaming of a roster that has Wemby surrounded with long, 3-D wings. Tre and a veteran could do the job for one more year.
It's not like a rookie point guard will make the difference.

If you just think Dillingham sucks then don't draft him. At some point teams are going to take best player available, especially if you already took the wing they wanted. Dillingham lasting to #8 seems like a longshot unless he shits the bed in workouts like Cam Whitmore.

[baseline bum]

Don’t like Knecht at all. He’s old, entirely duplicative of Vassell, doesn’t have the size to play the three, plays shit defense, and isn’t much of a playmaker. Yes, he can shoot. Yes, he is a 3 level scorer. But the team got torched on the wings defensively. As you point out, they should be able to get one of Holland/Buz/ZC at 4. And, that would leave Topic and/or Reed and/or Dilly there at 8. Unless you get stuck with Holland and Topic, you’re going to get a good amount of shooting with at least one of your picks. You may end up getting shooting and defense depending on how 1-3 go. The team needs size and length and defense on the wings. Knecht doesn’t give us enough of what we need.

Bolded part redundant after saying duplicative of Vassell tbh

[exstatic]

Don’t like Knecht at all. He’s old, entirely duplicative of Vassell, doesn’t have the size to play the three, plays shit defense, and isn’t much of a playmaker. Yes, he can shoot. Yes, he is a 3 level scorer. But the team got torched on the wings defensively. As you point out, they should be able to get one of Holland/Buz/ZC at 4. And, that would leave Topic and/or Reed and/or Dilly there at 8. Unless you get stuck with Holland and Topic, you’re going to get a good amount of shooting with at least one of your picks. You may end up getting shooting and defense depending on how 1-3 go. The team needs size and length and defense on the wings. Knecht doesn’t give us enough of what we need.

Dean would say to beware of older seniors who just blow up out of the blue. Probably fools gold,like that guy Duarte that Indy drafted out of Oregon a few years back who had a decent rookie year, and then fell off the map when teams developed a book on him.

[baseline bum]

You're higher on the guards than I am. I'm not interested in Topic or Sheppard, and I would rather have Matas or Holland over Dilly. Castle isn't too far behind Dilly, but I'm also not sure if he is really a guard or a wing.

That's just some context for my strategy. Billy Beane and I would be on the same page strategy-wise if we shared the same player evals. Also, why you trying to bury poor Billy alive? :lol



If Buzelis can shoot good how come he doesn't shoot good?
billybeane.gif

[Ariel]

https://twitter.com/tom_orsborn/status/1789740930607579492
OK, did a quick checkup on that and this is what I found:

Assuming ball sequences are sorted and assigned to teams according to seed (140 sequences starting from 1,2,3,4 to seed 1, and so on) then the first 3 balls drawn according to that tweet were consistent with the following sequences:
https://i.postimg.cc/kgLLBcPp/combinations.png

if that's the case, it's true that the Spurs had a winning combination but only 1 out of 11, that is 9,09% which is less than the 10.5% they started with, so chances actually were less than initially. Futhermore, Toronto had the same odds (more than they started with), so the Spurs could have just as easily seen that pick not convey. At the end of the day, Houston and Atlanta each had the best odds at 27.27% each, and they ended up with the pick.

Note that I did this quickly according to how it seemed reasonable they awarded the sequences (sorted by ball number and a lot of consecutive ones are assigned to each seed from 1 to 14, according to their pre-lottery odds). I can't guarantee this is correct, but it would seem logical.

[Russ]

Dean would say to beware of older seniors who just blow up out of the blue. Probably fools gold,like that guy Duarte that Indy drafted out of Oregon a few years back who had a decent rookie year, and then fell off the map when teams developed a book on him.

But there's always a Derrick White every once in a while.

[TekXX]

Dillingham is so small. I wasn't impressed with his last game in the tournament.

[vy65]

ATL: Sarr
WAS: Topic
HOU: ZR
SAS: Matas
DET: Reed
CHA: Castle
POR: Cody or Holland
SAS: Dilly

Figuring out what Houston does is the biggest question mark. Following that, whether DET/CHA/POR trade out and whether WAS opts for a pg or a big (Clingan) to fill in for the space left by Gafford are 2a/2b in open issues. But one of Matas and ZR should be there at 4. I like Matas because he gives you more playmaking on the wing compared to ZR. I think there are open questions about both’s shooting, so I’d err on a more dynamic player considering you want the opportunity to set Wemby up as much as possible.

With Wemby-Sochan-Matas, you have a great amount of size and length, along with a lot of defensive potential on the wings. I get a lot less trepidatious about taking a defensive liability like Dilly as your new point guard. His credentials as a shooter make me less concerned about Matas’ progression too. In some ways, I think Reed would be a better fit than Dilly with that sort of framework, but I don’t see him dropping to 8 given how ready he is to contribute now.

[Degoat]

Matas Buzelis scares me, gives me Samanic PTSD. I’d like to be wrong about him but of all the guys in the 1-8 range he would take the most convincing for me to jump on board with.

[vy65]

Vecenie’s report is that Matas is a high character/hard worker. I think he comes from a ball family, so I don’t share the Samanic concerns

[scott]

If you just think Dillingham sucks then don't draft him. At some point teams are going to take best player available, especially if you already took the wing they wanted. Dillingham lasting to #8 seems like a longshot unless he shits the bed in workouts like Cam Whitmore.

TBH, outside of Sarr and Risacher, I could see any other player dropping to 8 (and those two guys have higher floors based mostly on hype at this point). That's the thing about this draft. Clingan could go anywhere from #1 - 9. Topic realistically could go #2 - 10/11. I see Dilly with the same range as Topic (though I definitely have him higher than Topic).

After Sarr and Risacher, IMO I think Sheppard probably has the highest draft floor, likely a range of #3-7.

I think you really like Dilly, which is why you think it's a longshot he falls to 8, but IMO it's really not. For this reason, I actually think this is going to be one of the most fun drafts we've had in awhile because it's so up in the air.

[scott]

Vecenie’s report is that Matas is a high character/hard worker. I think he comes from a ball family, so I don’t share the Samanic concerns

Choir boy Spurs fans think he has a bad attitude because of some comment he made to "BasketNews" about challenging Risacher to a one-on-one match up. For all we know, Matas knows Risacher and it was a joke... worst case scenario, Matas has balls, since when is that a bad thing?

Don't see Matas as a bad attitude player at all.

[spurraider21]

no way I'm spending the first pick on a guard especially an undersized one in a league full of them
Yeah all these great guards out there like Tre Jones, Blake Wesley, Devonte Graham, and Malaki Branham

[Ariel]

^ Adding to that, I wouldn't be shocked if some picks change hands at the top, especially Atlanta and Houiston. Also the Spurs could have a lot of options to trade up, down or out. That could completely turn around how the draft shapes up.

[vy65]

Choir boy Spurs fans think he has a bad attitude because of some comment he made to "BasketNews" about challenging Risacher to a one-on-one match up. For all we know, Matas knows Risacher and it was a joke... worst case scenario, Matas has balls, since when is that a bad thing?

Don't see Matas as a bad attitude player at all.

Chances are he won’t flash brain to female staffers either. Hard pass (pun intended).

[baseline bum]

TBH, outside of Sarr and Risacher, I could see any other player dropping to 8 (and those two guys have higher floors based mostly on hype at this point). That's the thing about this draft. Clingan could go anywhere from #1 - 9. Topic realistically could go #2 - 10/11. I see Dilly with the same range as Topic (though I definitely have him higher than Topic).

After Sarr and Risacher, IMO I think Sheppard probably has the highest draft floor, likely a range of #3-7.

I think you really like Dilly, which is why you think it's a longshot he falls to 8, but IMO it's really not. For this reason, I actually think this is going to be one of the most fun drafts we've had in awhile because it's so up in the air.

Every argument I see with Dillingham falling that far is based on no one taking him because they already have a PG. I don't buy that all these teams are going to pass on talent and him falling to #8 only makes sense it you think he's an overrated shooter, overrated ballhandler, and overrated attacker off the dribble. God I hope they don't get hung up on size again at the PG position like when they screwed the pooch on Primo's scrub ass.

[baseline bum]

Matas Buzelis scares me, gives me Samanic PTSD. I’d like to be wrong about him but of all the guys in the 1-8 range he would take the most convincing for me to jump on board with.

I don't see that at all in Buzelis. Samanic was just a lazy motherfucker.

[goliath]

Hopefully the spurs don’t play games with their picks. If Dilly is the bpa on their board at 4 just take him. Playing games and hoping no one at 5-7 needs a pg will just end up screwing us.

[Mr. Body]

Matas Buzelis scares me, gives me Samanic PTSD. I’d like to be wrong about him but of all the guys in the 1-8 range he would take the most convincing for me to jump on board with.

He would still be on the team and developing if he wasn't a dick with bad attitude. Maybe he wouldn't be great, but there's no way of knowing since he basically tanked his own career.

[scott]

Every argument I see with Dillingham falling that far is based on no one taking him because they already have a PG. I don't buy that all these teams are going to pass on talent and him falling to #8 only makes sense it you think he's an overrated shooter, overrated ballhandler, and overrated attacker off the dribble. God I hope they don't get hung up on size again at the PG position like when they screwed the pooch on Primo's scrub ass.

If he were as talented as you're making it seem, he'd be the consensus #1 overall pick in this draft. We're not talking about some elite guard prospect here... he's just another guy in the mix of this overall underwhelming class.

[Mr. Body]

If he were as talented as you're making it seem, he'd be the consensus #1 overall pick in this draft. We're not talking about some elite guard prospect here... he's just another guy in the mix of this overall underwhelming class.

I do think Dillingham has an elite skill-set. His variety of shots, shooting, handles, and quickness are all elite. They're just attached to a tiny guard who has pretty bad defense. I've said elsewhere that if you combined this draft with 2023, he'd go 6th after Wemby-BMill-Scoot-Twin-Twin. There's no other player in this draft who I think very obviously goes there. It's just that teams are shy to take him top 3.

[scott]

I do think Dillingham has an elite skill-set. His variety of shots, shooting, handles, and quickness are all elite. They're just attached to a tiny guard who has pretty bad defense. I've said elsewhere that if you combined this draft with 2023, he'd go 6th after Wemby-BMill-Scoot-Twin-Twin. There's no other player in this draft who I think very obviously goes there. It's just that teams are shy to take him top 3.

The "tiny guard who has pretty bad defense" is pretty critical though. Not to dig up this can of worms, but the closest comp I can come up with to this is Trae Young, but Trae was a dominant force in college hoops, whereas Dillingham has not been. Yes, completely different situations and I generally don't like to make these kind of comparisons, but I think if 2018 Trae Young were in this draft, he goes #1 overall because he has that elite skill-set you described matched with the production at the college level. For Dillingham, it's still a bit more of a projection.

[td4mvp2k]

Yeah all these great guards out there like Tre Jones, Blake Wesley, Devonte Graham, and Malaki Branham
theres nothing wrong with jones he'd be great backup on many teams and branham who's still developing isn't a pg.. none of those guys were top 10 picks

[baseline bum]

If he were as talented as you're making it seem, he'd be the consensus #1 overall pick in this draft. We're not talking about some elite guard prospect here... he's just another guy in the mix of this overall underwhelming class.

So you think he's overrated as a shooter, ballhandler, and penetrator? Of course he's not a consensus #1, you gotta be Iverson level talent to be that high at his size.

EDIT: OK a Trae Young type talent too since this is such a weak draft and you mentioned him :lol

[baseline bum]

The "tiny guard who has pretty bad defense" is pretty critical though. Not to dig up this can of worms, but the closest comp I can come up with to this is Trae Young, but Trae was a dominant force in college hoops, whereas Dillingham has not been. Yes, completely different situations and I generally don't like to make these kind of comparisons, but I think if 2018 Trae Young were in this draft, he goes #1 overall because he has that elite skill-set you described matched with the production at the college level. For Dillingham, it's still a bit more of a projection.

No question he'd go #1 in this draft.

[SpursGenius]

Trae young sux. He is a team killer I wish ST would forget the scrub

[sfernald]

I'm not betting on them not picking a player, I'm betting on them not picking a certain archetype.

Pistons need everything except for a point guard because Cade has shown he's got all-star potential. Maybe they take Sheppard and have him play off the ball.
Blazers have Scoot and too many guards.
Hornets have Lamelo.

Unless Dillingham looks like the next big thing in workouts, they're not taking him.
Meanwhile, Spurs will have to take third or fourth choice wing with #8 if they draft Dillingham with #4.

Idk, I just don't see Dillingham as a must pick at #4 with three teams with point guards as centerpieces picking after the Spurs.
I guess we'll have to wait and see how it plays out.

The problem is you’re not seeing the teams lurking in the background ready to pounce and desperate for a point guard. For example, NO wants a new point guard badly to pair with Zion and might be willing to trade Ingram (reportedly wants to trade him) to Detroit, Houston or other teams for picks and players that fit better around Zion (especially a point guard). And there are other teams than just NO. It’s better to just take the best player first and not play games here

[scott]

So you think he's overrated as a shooter, ballhandler, and penetrator? Of course he's not a consensus #1, you gotta be Iverson level talent to be that high at his size.

EDIT: OK a Trae Young type talent too since this is such a weak draft and you mentioned him :lol

That's my point. If you're not consensus #1 in this draft, you're kind just in a glob of a bunch of other players. I don't think Dillingham is a good enough prospect relative to others for teams like DET, CHA and POR to take him over better fits (which was what we were originally talking about). That's how he drops to 8. If he were a better prospect that those teams absolutely can't pass up, then that same thing would be true of everyone picking 1-4.

I don't think Dillingham's skills are overrated, I think they are appropriately rated, which is why he's not the consensus top pick and is in the grinder with all these other guys. That's the appropriate rating.

[scott]

No question he'd go #1 in this draft.

Of course Trae would, which is what I said. But it's because Trae matched all of those skills with elite production. If Dilly had that, he'd go number 1 too. But he doesn't, which is why he isn't the consensus #1.

[sfernald]

Watching Castle defensive videos makes me drool. If he develops a shot he might be the best player in this draft. A fun scenario would be Sarr drops to #4 and then we snag Castle at #8. Then we have one of the best defenses in the league next year. Sure we might shoot less than 30% from three but how would that be different from this year anyway?

[T Park]

the Rob Dillingham slander makes zero sense

[kobyz]

He would still be on the team and developing if he wasn't a dick with bad attitude. Maybe he wouldn't be great, but there's no way of knowing since he basically tanked his own career.

Buzelis is the biggest project as s prospect in the draft, not worth top 8 selection, not even lottery selection...

[SouthernFryd]

Buzelis shot 27% from three.

He's also a little soft.

Moves well and has decent handles for 6'10". But, 27% from 3 and being soft...I dunno. I think 2nd round prospect.

I would trade #4 and Keldon as well as mixing in some of the Atlanta picks we have....for Trae. If they want more, well...look elsewhere. We need more than just Trae. Need at least 1 top 10 pick this year and at 8, we should be able to get something. If you take Brian Wright out of the decision making process.

[exstatic]

But there's always a Derrick White every once in a while.

I would take Knecht at 29 in a heartbeat. Not so much in the lottery.

[exstatic]

Buzelis shot 27% from three.

He's also a little soft.

Moves well and has decent handles for 6'10". But, 27% from 3 and being soft...I dunno. I think 2nd round prospect.

I would trade #4 and Keldon as well as mixing in some of the Atlanta picks we have....for Trae. If they want more, well...look elsewhere. We need more than just Trae. Need at least 1 top 10 pick this year and at 8, we should be able to get something. If you take Brian Wright out of the decision making process.

Weren’t you the one just screaming about defense in another thread? Because Trae ain’t that.

[CGD]

Matas Buzelis scares me, gives me Samanic PTSD. I’d like to be wrong about him but of all the guys in the 1-8 range he would take the most convincing for me to jump on board with.

Why, bc he’s a tall white boy?

He’s the opposite of Luka who hated basketball and was basically a lazy bum riding on some basic talent. Matas is a dog, and maybe a little too confident in his abilities to times. Rather be in a position to reign in the latter, than the the other way around tho.

[Mr. Body]

The "tiny guard who has pretty bad defense" is pretty critical though. Not to dig up this can of worms, but the closest comp I can come up with to this is Trae Young, but Trae was a dominant force in college hoops, whereas Dillingham has not been. Yes, completely different situations and I generally don't like to make these kind of comparisons, but I think if 2018 Trae Young were in this draft, he goes #1 overall because he has that elite skill-set you described matched with the production at the college level. For Dillingham, it's still a bit more of a projection.

Trae had a usage rate of 37% in college. That's astounding. He was also a bang-average shooter. Where he shined was getting to the line and generating assists. He still is a good passer, but is very heliocentric. He's also a bystander on defense at best.

Dillingham is a far, far better shooter than Trae has ever been. There's no real comparison. Trae has a reputation for being a great shooter, but he's not. Yes, shooting at a high volume is a threat in itself, but he doesn't make a tremendous amount of them. Dillingham is well behind him in playmaking, but isn't bad. And he at least as improveable defense.

In the end, there are two things here: 1) we can only draft players who are available, and Dillingham has a very strong skillset and, imo, is the most talented player in the draft, and 2) the Spurs likely aren't going that way anyway.

[TrainOfThought5]

I don't know if it's feasible, but I would prefer the Spurs be aggressive, even if it's just to turn #8 into #6 or #7. Someone mentioned any point guard available at 4 will be available at 8, but they're assuming no one trades up to jump the Spurs at 8. If we somehow got Risacher at 4 and the Spurs rest on their laurels assuming Dilly will still be there at 8, everyone in the NBA will expect us to pick Dilly at 8--so if anyone wants him, they'll try to trade into 5-7. Hopefully Brian is too smart to let that happen. Jury's still out on that I think.

this is exactly what’s going to happen. And it’s my worst fear.

[John B]

Can’t wait for timvp top board on this draft.

[rascal]

Are there any great white players in the league who can't shoot?

[baseline bum]

That's my point. If you're not consensus #1 in this draft, you're kind just in a glob of a bunch of other players. I don't think Dillingham is a good enough prospect relative to others for teams like DET, CHA and POR to take him over better fits (which was what we were originally talking about). That's how he drops to 8. If he were a better prospect that those teams absolutely can't pass up, then that same thing would be true of everyone picking 1-4.

I don't think Dillingham's skills are overrated, I think they are appropriately rated, which is why he's not the consensus top pick and is in the grinder with all these other guys. That's the appropriate rating.

I'll push back on that argument with Cade being a guy the Pistons could play at the 2 and LaMelo being a China doll whose injuries the Hornets might want to hedge against. Scoot has looked incredibly disappointing too. I do think Dillingham is more talented than the glob and the only thing keeping him from consensus #1 is his size. I don't think his size is going to scare everyone off in the first half of the lottery though, not when for example Mike Conley has been an effective point guard 17 years at 6 foot nothing 175 lb without needing to be the explosive scorer Trae Young is. Dillingham has a three point shot, he has an in between game, and he can get to the basket, which is more than you can say for any other guard in this draft right now other than maybe Knecht and he's one of the safer bets in this draft IMO.

[scott]

Trae had a usage rate of 37% in college. That's astounding. He was also a bang-average shooter. Where he shined was getting to the line and generating assists. He still is a good passer, but is very heliocentric. He's also a bystander on defense at best.

Dillingham is a far, far better shooter than Trae has ever been. There's no real comparison. Trae has a reputation for being a great shooter, but he's not. Yes, shooting at a high volume is a threat in itself, but he doesn't make a tremendous amount of them. Dillingham is well behind him in playmaking, but isn't bad. And he at least as improveable defense.

In the end, there are two things here: 1) we can only draft players who are available, and Dillingham has a very strong skillset and, imo, is the most talented player in the draft, and 2) the Spurs likely aren't going that way anyway.

Sounds like you think Dillingham is a better prospect and player than 3-time all star, ROY runner-up, all-NBA 3rd team Trae Young. In that case, he should be your clear cut #1 player in a tier by himself. Is he? Why isn't there more consensus on this?

[scott]

I'll push back on that argument with Cade being a guy the Pistons could play at the 2 and LaMelo being a China doll whose injuries the Hornets might want to hedge against. Scoot has looked incredibly disappointing too. I do think Dillingham is more talented than the glob and the only thing keeping him from consensus #1 is his size. I don't think his size is going to scare everyone off in the first half of the lottery though, not when for example Mike Conley has been an effective point guard 17 years at 6 foot nothing 175 lb without needing to be the explosive scorer Trae Young is. Dillingham has a three point shot, he has an in between game, and he can get to the basket, which is more than you can say for any other guard in this draft right now other than maybe Knecht and he's one of the safer bets in this draft IMO.

If you think DET, CHA or POR are threats to take Dilly and he's your top player... then yeah you have to take him.

My opinion on taking the wing at 4 is based on two things:

1) I don't think those teams would take him and
2) he's not my top player, he's just in my top tier (meaning I'll be just as happy getting other players from that tier).

If you don't share those opinions, then yeah - my strategy doesn't work

[RC_Drunkford]

Dillingham is not as good as Tre Young and he's not Mike Conley either. Conley has a lot more wingspan than Dillingham. Best case scenario is Dillingham can become a Darius Garland type player, who by the way also got the same height and an inch less wingspan. Anything else is a pipe dream. The real question is can he finish at the rim with his physical limitations and thin frame?

[DPG21920]

He reminds more more of Brandon Jennings

[Mr. Body]

Sounds like you think Dillingham is a better prospect and player than 3-time all star, ROY runner-up, all-NBA 3rd team Trae Young. In that case, he should be your clear cut #1 player in a tier by himself. Is he? Why isn't there more consensus on this?

Yeah, I think Trae Young is a loser.

Dillingham still has a chance of being something.

[vy65]

Updated back of the envelope projection, assuming Topic is out of the top 8

ATL: Sarr
WAS: ZR
HOU: Reed
SAS: Matas
DET: Knecht (they might get fucked the most with Topic gone; they need shooting and Dilly is too redundant)
CHA: Castle
POR: Holland
SAS: Dilly

That's sort of a best case scenario. Another one where WAS opts for a pg is less favorable

ATL: Sarr
WAS: Dilly
HOU: Reed
SAS: ZR
DET: Matas
CHA: Castle
POR: Holland
SAS: Knecht? C. Williams?

Things get pretty dire for #8 in a world where Washington opts for Dilly. In that scenario, ZR is in play at 4 and I worry that we opt for that over Matas. I would absolutely hate to waste a top 10 pick on Dalton fucking Connect.

[rascal]

Updated back of the envelope projection, assuming Topic is out of the top 8

ATL: Sarr
WAS: ZR
HOU: Reed
SAS: Matas
DET: Knecht (they might get fucked the most with Topic gone; they need shooting and Dilly is too redundant)
CHA: Castle
POR: Holland
SAS: Dilly

That's sort of a best case scenario. Another one where WAS opts for a pg is less favorable

ATL: Sarr
WAS: Dilly
HOU: Reed
SAS: ZR
DET: Matas
CHA: Castle
POR: Holland
SAS: Knecht? C. Williams?

Things get pretty dire for #8 in a world where Washington opts for Dilly. In that scenario, ZR is in play at 4 and I worry that we opt for that over Matas. I would absolutely hate to waste a top 10 pick on Dalton fucking Connect.

You forgot Clingan

[scott]

Yeah, I think Trae Young is a loser.

Dillingham still has a chance of being something.

Maybe he is a loser. But he'd still be the consensus #1 in this draft, something Dillingham is not.

[vy65]

You forgot Clingan

Posted this in another thread, but where does Clingan go? Only place that makes sense for him is WAS and maybe CHA.

[Mr. Body]

Maybe he is a loser. But he'd still be the consensus #1 in this draft, something Dillingham is not.

Then Atlanta gets to draft him and then find out he sucks all over again!

[mo7888]

Updated back of the envelope projection, assuming Topic is out of the top 8

ATL: Sarr
WAS: ZR
HOU: Reed
SAS: Matas
DET: Knecht (they might get fucked the most with Topic gone; they need shooting and Dilly is too redundant)
CHA: Castle
POR: Holland
SAS: Dilly

That's sort of a best case scenario. Another one where WAS opts for a pg is less favorable

ATL: Sarr
WAS: Dilly
HOU: Reed
SAS: ZR
DET: Matas
CHA: Castle
POR: Holland
SAS: Knecht? C. Williams?

Things get pretty dire for #8 in a world where Washington opts for Dilly. In that scenario, ZR is in play at 4 and I worry that we opt for that over Matas. I would absolutely hate to waste a top 10 pick on Dalton fucking Connect.

I like both outcomes, but I'd like the 2nd iteration better if we took Matas at #4 since you still have him on the board.

[shaq_h8ter]

#4 SAS: Matas
#8 SAS: Edey
Don't NEED a true PG, Wemby is the defacto PG on the Spurs everything goes through him.
Edey shot 56% from three and had better in the paint movement than Sarr at the combine.

https://www.spurstalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=303311&p=11025579&viewfull=1#post11025579:~:text=but%20nowadays%20th ere%20is%20no%20longer%20traditional%20PG%20or%20C .%20Everything%20is%20switchable

[TrainOfThought5]

the Rob Dillingham slander makes zero sense

I’m perplexed that fans of a franchise that had slim, young Tony Parker turn into FMVP head of the snake would dislike a similar but better shooter in Dilly.

[itzsoweezee]

I’m perplexed that fans of a franchise that had slim, young Tony Parker turn into FMVP head of the snake would dislike a similar but better shooter in Dilly.

It’s not that hard to understand. Even the Spurs thought they would be better with JKidd

[JPB]

I’m perplexed that fans of a franchise that had slim, young Tony Parker turn into FMVP head of the snake would dislike a similar but better shooter in Dilly.

So, let's sum it up...

Dillingham is better than Trae Young, and a better shooting Tony Parker...

Anything more, guys?

I'm taking notes for my big board.

[exstatic]

So, let's sum it up...

Dillingham is better than Trae Young, and a better shooting Tony Parker...

Anything more, guys?

I'm taking notes for my big board.

Hysteria. I don’t think one person here has said that Dilly is better than Trae Young. He’s a higher % 3 point shooter. That’s not even a debate. He’s also come off the bench at UK, and played off the ball, something Trae seems incapable of, and that’s not debatable either after watching the last two Atlanta seasons. Dilly is probably a batter FIT in San Antonio, with his shooting prowess and style of play.

[RC_Drunkford]

Hysteria. I don’t think one person here has said that Dilly is better than Trae Young. He’s a higher % 3 point shooter. That’s not even a debate. He’s also come off the bench at UK, and played off the ball, something Trae seems incapable of, and that’s not debatable either after watching the last two Atlanta seasons. Dilly is probably a batter FIT in San Antonio, with his shooting prowess and style of play.

he's a better 3-point shooter IN COLLEGE. Trae Young plays in the NBA. As if there was no difference :lol

[Mr. Body]

Hysteria. I don’t think one person here has said that Dilly is better than Trae Young. He’s a higher % 3 point shooter. That’s not even a debate. He’s also come off the bench at UK, and played off the ball, something Trae seems incapable of, and that’s not debatable either after watching the last two Atlanta seasons. Dilly is probably a batter FIT in San Antonio, with his shooting prowess and style of play.

Yeah pretty much. One improvement Dillingham made that most observers credit him for was going from a flashy, crowd pleasing chucker in OTE to a system player at Kentucky. He had the green light, but he still played within himself and got his players involved. Trae doesn't do that. He still chucks random bullshit shots. He also does the James Harden thing of pounding the ball or just sitting there staring a defense down before wanting to do anything. Dillingham makes snap decisions and acts quickly.

If I have a concern on offense, leaving the other side out, it's whether Rob can scale down from a 30% usage and where he can do more off-ball. He actually has done well off-ball, to be fair. I do think he may cap out as a bench centerpiece, a Jordan Clarkson type. It's not a bad player to have, but he may never be a starter.

[Mr. Body]

Updated back of the envelope projection, assuming Topic is out of the top 8

ATL: Sarr
WAS: ZR
HOU: Reed
SAS: Matas
DET: Knecht (they might get fucked the most with Topic gone; they need shooting and Dilly is too redundant)
CHA: Castle
POR: Holland
SAS: Dilly

That's sort of a best case scenario. Another one where WAS opts for a pg is less favorable

ATL: Sarr
WAS: Dilly
HOU: Reed
SAS: ZR
DET: Matas
CHA: Castle
POR: Holland
SAS: Knecht? C. Williams?

Things get pretty dire for #8 in a world where Washington opts for Dilly. In that scenario, ZR is in play at 4 and I worry that we opt for that over Matas. I would absolutely hate to waste a top 10 pick on Dalton fucking Connect.

Clingan has to be in play somewhere. Another team may try to get in to grab him if he continues to be available. On their own, Detroit, Charlotte, Portland don't seem to have a need for him. He gets mocked a lot to Memphis, who lost Stephen Adams, so maybe a team might want to leap into that 5-8 range to grab him instead.

[kobyz]

No way Houston not taking Dillingham

[DPG21920]

I’m perplexed that fans of a franchise that had slim, young Tony Parker turn into FMVP head of the snake would dislike a similar but better shooter in Dilly.

He’s no where near TP athletic ability - he wont be getting to the rim and putting pressure on teams like that. It’s a huge reason why his value is questionable. A small guard that’s not an Uber athlete that is not a 3 level scorer but one that relies on jump shots without the ability to penetrate consistently like a TP

[JPB]

Hysteria. I don’t think one person here has said that Dilly is better than Trae Young. He’s a higher % 3 point shooter. That’s not even a debate. He’s also come off the bench at UK, and played off the ball, something Trae seems incapable of, and that’s not debatable either after watching the last two Atlanta seasons. Dilly is probably a batter FIT in San Antonio, with his shooting prowess and style of play.




Dillingham (in his zero NBA seasons) is a far, far better shooter than Trae has ever been. There's no real comparison.




Yeah, I think Trae Young is a loser.

Dillingham still has a chance of being something.


I’m perplexed that fans of a franchise that had slim, young Tony Parker turn into FMVP head of the snake would dislike a similar but better shooter in Dilly.

Who's hysterical here about a kid who has yet to play one NBA game and might not even be as starter in this league, making those kind of comparison with a 3 time all star and an HOFer?

And the way you guys compare college games/stats with NBA game/stats, to say Dilly is this, Dilly is that, or better than Trae at this or that is honestly... hysterical. That's the whole thing about prospects. you can't make those kind of definitive assertions. We know what NBA player Trae is, we don't know what NBA player Dillignham will be. There are things some guys can do in college, they can't in HS. Adam Morrison would be an HOFer otherwise.

And if Dilly was honestly close to how he's described by some here, he'd be a surefire #1. It seems some people are projecting in him everything they' like him to be.

[Ariel]

So, let's sum it up...

Dillingham is better than Trae Young, and a better shooting Tony Parker...

Anything more, guys?

I'm taking notes for my big board.
No, that's not the argument, it's the fact that getting Trae Young costs a hell of a lot more both in terms of assets (multiple picks spanning multiple years) plus a hefty salary that even requires a big extension (you're not going to pay a lot to then let him walk), and under those circumstances and given Trae's known limitations and history, a bunch of us would rather gamble on Dillingham or wait for other opportunities. It isn't rocket science, it's isn;t hard to understand it whether you agree or not, provided you're arguing in good faith.

[Knoxxx]

I’d go Castle at 4 and hope he can at least partly be our PG solution. Edey at 8, he’s running circles around Clingan at the combine just like he did playing against him. Edey is a can’t miss prospect, Brook Lopez on steroids. And yes, he CAN shoot the 3 ball OMG who knew!?!

Mocking Clingan as high as 2, when you could get Edey later, ludicrous!

[JPB]

He’s no where near TP athletic ability - he wont be getting to the rim and putting pressure on teams like that. It’s a huge reason why his value is questionable. A small guard that’s not an Uber athlete that is not a 3 level scorer but one that relies on jump shots without the ability to penetrate consistently like a TP

And that's before talking about TP's off ball movement and BBIQ (underestimated). He was a very smart player, and his agility and abilty to sneak his way under the bigs to pull an early lay up before you could even prepare to block it were unique. He was not just fast running, but very fast in the execution of his moves.

[DPG21920]

And that's before talking about TP's off ball movement and BBIQ (underestimated). He was a very smart player, and his agility and abilty to sneak his way under the bigs to pull an early lay up before you could even prepare to block it were unique. He was not just fast running, but very fast in the execution of his moves.

Exactly. Dillingham is more akin to Patty Mills than TP

[LeBowen]

Exactly. Dillingham is more akin to Patty Mills than TP

No way, Patty's handles were nowhere near as good.
Dillingham is a Lou/Clarkson type player.

I'd say that Sheppard looks like Patty on offense if we talk shooting and the type of shots he takes.

[Mr. Body]

Who's hysterical here about a kid who has yet to play one NBA game and might not even be as starter in this league, making those kind of comparison with a 3 time all star and an HOFer?

And the way you guys compare college games/stats with NBA game/stats, to say Dilly is this, Dilly is that, or better than Trae at this or that is honestly... hysterical. That's the whole thing about prospects. you can't make those kind of definitive assertions. We know what NBA player Trae is, we don't know what NBA player Dillignham will be. There are things some guys can do in college, they can't in HS. Adam Morrison would be an HOFer otherwise.

And if Dilly was honestly close to how he's described by some here, he'd be a surefire #1. It seems some people are projecting in him everything they' like him to be.

Dillingham would be sure-fire #1... if he was a few inches taller. He's legit the most talented player in the draft.

What you Trae dickriders need to realize is that he's NOT a good shooter. He's never been a good shooter. His value is in drawing fouls and getting assists. He's very, very good at those things. But as a shooter, he's average at best. What he DOES do is shoot a lot of them, which is a value unto itself. A volume scorer can get really hot.

Now, what you have to understand is that Dillingham IS a much better shooter than Trae Young. Young shot .360 from deep in his college year. Dillingham shot .444. For all the attention Sheppard gets for his shooting, and rightfully so, Dillingham's shooting percentage is pretty absurd.

Dillingham shot .475 overall in college, which is very good, esp considering that his finishing is only alright.

Now, Trae Young shoots .353 from three for his career in the NBA. The league average for PG and SG is .371!!! Trae Young is actually kind of a terrible shooter for someone who puts them up so much!

Even if Dillingham only shoots like .400 from deep in the NBA, he's still much more of a capable shooter.

One thing people need to do in this world is break out of conceived narratives. One such example is this one. I don't think Dillingham will be a star, but we don't know yet. What seems pretty objectively clear, if you wipe away the Vaseline from the lens, is that Trae Young kind of fucking sucks.

[DPG21920]

No way, Patty's handles were nowhere near as good.
Dillingham is a Lou/Clarkson type player.

I'd say that Sheppard looks like Patty on offense if we talk shooting and the type of shots he takes.

Sure - im just saying in terms of ceiling/floor. Not direct comparison to their games.

[LeBowen]

What you Trae dickriders need to realize is that he's NOT a good shooter. He's never been a good shooter. His value is in drawing fouls and getting assists. He's very, very good at those things. But as a shooter, he's average at best. What he DOES do is shoot a lot of them, which is a value unto itself. A volume scorer can get really hot.


Your takes are sometimes just straight up idiotic, no other (less insulting) word for it.
There aren't even 5 players in the league who would have better 3pt percentage than Trae if they took the same shots he does.
He's a great shooter.

The issue is that he takes bad shots. Some of it is obviously on him and his shot selection, but a lot of it is on the fact that except Bogdan and now DJ, he never had teammates who could create for themselves.
The entire focus of every Hawks opponent ever was Trae. They knew noone else is capable of beating them if Trae has to give the ball up.
They wouldn't be able to do that with Wemby. Because Wemby has to be the entire focus of the defense if they're to stop him.

I'm not the biggest fan of Trae, but getting him makes sense in a lot of ways.
Not perfect, far from it, but you can forget about getting a legit superstar unless we give up more or less everything and are stuck with Wemby, the player we traded for and scrubs.

[spurraider21]

im not letting open gym shooting exhibitions sway my judgment compared to what we've seen in-game.

last time i put up my board, i think i had Castle around 9, so he'd be a viable candidate at #8 if he makes it there. i just wish we saw more of him running sets as a lead ballhandler, or at the very least, more aggressive, physical forays into the lane. if he's just kind of floating around with the ball in his hands and making the right pass, thats not all that exciting for a guy who isnt a shooter and not a top 10%ile athlete

but the defense and bbiq is there, so you could do worse. im not sure he's big/long enough to contend with the good scoring 3's in the league, so imo the path to his ceiling lies with him being a jumbo PG. but without a great and without a great outside shot, the path there seems thin

but putting ceilings aside, a high end hustle defender who can at least be a cog offensively has value

[rjv]

Ryen Russillo on the Bill Simmons podcast said that the #1 pick in this draft could at best net a 4th starter for some team in a straight up trade (based on what he's heard from front office sources).

[lefty]

wait what

I thought the lottery would be before game 1 of the Finals

[RC_Drunkford]

I'm fine with rolling the dice on Dillingham before doing a Trae Young trade. The guy might be a 20 PPG scorer down the line. He does shoot high percentages, even off the dribble and can also be a catch & shoot player. He's very good at relocating once he gives the ball up. Getting to the rim shouldn't be a problem neither since he has elite handles. The question mark is obviously defense and finishing at the rim. Dillingham only shot 53% at the rim in college and that's against much smaller players than he will face in the NBA. Adding some muscle in the weight room might improve that. If we have our PG of the future in him, we gonna be stacked moving forward with all those picks that we still got coming up.

[spurraider21]

wait what

I thought the lottery would be before game 1 of the Finals
it was. game 1 of the finals wont be until june 6. the lottery was on may 12

[Seventyniner]

Ryen Russillo on the Bill Simmons podcast said that the #1 pick in this draft could at best net a 4th starter for some team in a straight up trade (based on what he's heard from front office sources).

Just trade Sochan to the Hawks for #1 then!

[Mitch Cumsteen]

Your takes are sometimes just straight up idiotic, no other (less insulting) word for it.
There aren't even 5 players in the league who would have better 3pt percentage than Trae if they took the same shots he does.
He's a great shooter.

The issue is that he takes bad shots. Some of it is obviously on him and his shot selection, but a lot of it is on the fact that except Bogdan and now DJ, he never had teammates who could create for themselves.
The entire focus of every Hawks opponent ever was Trae. They knew noone else is capable of beating them if Trae has to give the ball up.
They wouldn't be able to do that with Wemby. Because Wemby has to be the entire focus of the defense if they're to stop him.

I'm not the biggest fan of Trae, but getting him makes sense in a lot of ways.
Not perfect, far from it, but you can forget about getting a legit superstar unless we give up more or less everything and are stuck with Wemby, the player we traded for and scrubs.

With all due respect, nobody is forcing Trae Young to take bad shots. Nobody is forcing him to make the game more difficult for himself. Just like nobody is forcing him to give crap effort on defense.

He's had two years with DJM and 4 with Bogdanovich and they are persistently a .500 team. With him playing. With him out injured. With different teammates. With different coaches. It doesn't matter. He puts up the same inefficient numbers no matter what. He's the constant.

[R. DeMurre]

Dillingham weighed in at 164 lbs, or 11 lbs lighter than his previously listed weight of 175. To put that in perspective, that's 21 lbs lighter than Tony Parker, who is considered a smallish PG, and about 30 lbs lighter than Jalen Brunson, who might be the best undersized guy in the league right now.

[Chomag]

I know we need a PG but I think that all the pgs in this draft are flawed in 1 way or another, and could take a few years of development to become something. Would it be maybe be better to draft for a different position and look to make a trade for a PG?

[lefty]

it was. game 1 of the finals wont be until june 6. the lottery was on may 12
ah ok
I'm still celebrating the draft lottery from last year :lol

:lol Rockets

[Chomag]

I'm fine with rolling the dice on Dillingham before doing a Trae Young trade. The guy might be a 20 PPG scorer down the line. He does shoot high percentages, even off the dribble and can also be a catch & shoot player. He's very good at relocating once he gives the ball up. Getting to the rim shouldn't be a problem neither since he has elite handles. The question mark is obviously defense and finishing at the rim. Dillingham only shot 53% at the rim in college and that's against much smaller players than he will face in the NBA. Adding some muscle in the weight room might improve that. If we have our PG of the future in him, we gonna be stacked moving forward with all those picks that we still got coming up.
From all of the tape that I have seen on him I really like him and I think he might be one of the most talented players in this draft but I am concerned about his hight and light frame working for him at the NBA level

[Chomag]

I guess it all depends if we are looking for a good roll player or striking it rich with an nba Allstar talent in this draft

[baseline bum]

it was. game 1 of the finals wont be until june 6. the lottery was on may 12

https://i.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/newsfeed/000/909/991/48c.jpg

[Brazil]

ah ok
I'm still celebrating the draft lottery from last year :lol

:lol Rockets

:lol in before djohn telling us that he rather have Sengun

[baseline bum]

Dillingham weighed in at 164 lbs, or 11 lbs lighter than his previously listed weight of 175. To put that in perspective, that's 21 lbs lighter than Tony Parker, who is considered a smallish PG, and about 30 lbs lighter than Jalen Brunson, who might be the best undersized guy in the league right now.

Supposedly Tony was 172 lb before the draft

http://www.ibiblio.org/craig/draft/2001_draft/Players/parker.shtml
https://www.nbadraft.net/players/tony-parker/

[lefty]

:lol in before djohn telling us that he rather have Sengun


Sengun, Penguin, doesn"t matter, we have a generational talent and 5 > 2


https://preview.redd.it/smoking-on-that-process-pack-v0-k018qm0ec5z81.jpg?auto=webp&acdcfbf7

[scott]

No, that's not the argument, it's the fact that getting Trae Young costs a hell of a lot more both in terms of assets (multiple picks spanning multiple years) plus a hefty salary that even requires a big extension (you're not going to pay a lot to then let him walk), and under those circumstances and given Trae's known limitations and history, a bunch of us would rather gamble on Dillingham or wait for other opportunities. It isn't rocket science, it's isn;t hard to understand it whether you agree or not, provided you're arguing in good faith.

That might be your argument, and it's a valid one, but it's not the argument others are making, as seen in subsequent posts.

[scott]

Dillingham is only slight larger than Caitlyn Clark, who people say wouldn't be able to play with men because she'd get bullied around the court too easily. Just for some perspective :lol

(Dilly still #3 on my board, and I'd take Clark in a heartbeat if the rules allowed)

[exstatic]

Ryen Russillo on the Bill Simmons podcast said that the #1 pick in this draft could at best net a 4th starter for some team in a straight up trade (based on what he's heard from front office sources).

That was a pretty bleak podcast. He had heard from 8 teams, and one said the draft starts with the first 8 picks amputated, and one said the first 10.

[scott]

That was a pretty bleak podcast. He had heard from 8 teams, and one said the draft starts with the first 8 picks amputated, and one said the first 10.

On the bright side, there are plenty of great players in the league who these same NBA front offices overlooked and let slide to the late first/early second. In other words... these front offices kind of suck sometimes too! I'm holding out hope that we get some useful gems here.

[Kevin]

On the bright side, there are plenty of great players in the league who these same NBA front offices overlooked and let slide to the late first/early second. In other words... these front offices kind of suck sometimes too! I'm holding out hope that we get some useful gems here.

And this is why I preferred to reroll the dice on the Raps pick.

[Splits]

ah ok
I'm still celebrating the draft lottery from last year :lol

:lol Rockets


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b6dWw78rEVQ

[scott]

And this is why I preferred to reroll the dice on the Raps pick.

Nah, we already have 2-4 picks coming next year, don't need another one.

[Mr. Body]

That was a pretty bleak podcast. He had heard from 8 teams, and one said the draft starts with the first 8 picks amputated, and one said the first 10.

I disagree a bit. I think we can say the top five picks last year stay in place, even if Scoot looks a bit uncertain. Alien-Miller-Scoot-Amen-Ausar.

But then you have Anthony Black, who is pretty similar to Stephon Castle. Then it's Coulibaly, Jarace Walker, Taylor Hendricks, Cason Wallace, Jett Howard.

I don't think any of those are obvious over the best of the 2024 draft. Most of them, frankly, aren't. In fact, I'd put Dillingham as a firm #6.

[pad300]

Dillingham is only slight larger than Caitlyn Clark, who people say wouldn't be able to play with men because she'd get bullied around the court too easily. Just for some perspective :lol

(Dilly still #3 on my board, and I'd take Clark in a heartbeat if the rules allowed)

Dude, stop day drinking. Ms Clark is a great ladies player, but she'd get killed playing against men. The athleticism gap is just WAY too big.

[Dex]

A lesson for teams with superstitions: the three teams with the best lottery luck today either sent their coach (Rockets) or their GM (Spurs, Hawks) to the lottery.

Stop sending players to this shit.

It was so awkward that they interviewed Scottie Barnes from Toronto and he was like "can't wait to see who we get" and then Toronto loses their pick, LOL

[lefty]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b6dWw78rEVQ
:lmao

[TrainOfThought5]

So, let's sum it up...

Dillingham is better than Trae Young, and a better shooting Tony Parker...

Anything more, guys?

I'm taking notes for my big board.

At their respective ages yes, I would take this Dillingham over that Tony Parker.

[John B]

At their respective ages yes, I would take this Dillingham over that Tony Parker.

Skillsets yes. But 19 yrs old Tony Parker was driven (ever since he stepped in the basketball court). He was going to be better than everybody. We don’t know yet from Dilly. But that “it” factor is what propelled TP to greatness, with much needed help from Timmy of course, allowing TP to become the HOFer that he would be. Does Dilly have that “it?” Time would tell.

[JPB]

At their respective ages yes, I would take this Dillingham over that Tony Parker.

if your point is that Dilly's ceiling > first ballot HOFer, 4 time NBA champion, Finals MVP, 6 time all star, starting at 19 on a contender... well, maybe we should all come down a little and get back to reality reagarding this draft... We'll see but nor Dilly or most of this year's lottery guards might even be starting material.

By curiosity and for perspective, I checked the 2001 draft. And man... (I'll let anyone make the comparisons he wants with this year's). There might be 5 guys around the 20s that I would take top 5 this year, and 10 guys after top 10 I would take top 10 this year.

https://i.ibb.co/WGPGqwN/draft.jpg

[buttsR4rebounding]

I’d go Castle at 4 and hope he can at least partly be our PG solution. Edey at 8, he’s running circles around Clingan at the combine just like he did playing against him. Edey is a can’t miss prospect, Brook Lopez on steroids. And yes, he CAN shoot the 3 ball OMG who knew!?!

Mocking Clingan as high as 2, when you could get Edey later, ludicrous!

100%. What are people thinking? Edey was faster than Clingan, did better in the agility drills than Clingan, is bigger than Clingan, shot better than Clingan and outperformed in head-to-head competition. Could UConn make it to the Final 4 without Clingan--maybe. Would Purdue even be in the tournament without Edey--maybe not. Any GM taking Clingan with Edey still available is a moron.

[buttsR4rebounding]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b6dWw78rEVQ

Never gets old...

[exstatic]

I disagree a bit. I think we can say the top five picks last year stay in place, even if Scoot looks a bit uncertain. Alien-Miller-Scoot-Amen-Ausar.

But then you have Anthony Black, who is pretty similar to Stephon Castle. Then it's Coulibaly, Jarace Walker, Taylor Hendricks, Cason Wallace, Jett Howard.

I don't think any of those are obvious over the best of the 2024 draft. Most of them, frankly, aren't. In fact, I'd put Dillingham as a firm #6.

And you’re free to do so. I’m just passing on info from Ryen who communicates with people actually in NBA front offices.

My opinion is that I’d take Cason Wallace #1 in this draft. He’s more complete than any player in 2024, having the ability to handle, pass, shoot, and play defense. All of the 2024 shooters are shit on defense, and all of the defenders have crap 3 pointers.

[rascal]

At their respective ages yes, I would take this Dillingham over that Tony Parker.

I wouldn't. Parker looked very fast and I knew he would be something special by his ability to blow past people.

[JPB]

And you’re free to do so. I’m just passing on info from Ryen who communicates with people actually in NBA front offices.

My opinion is that I’d take Cason Wallace #1 in this draft. He’s more complete than any player in 2024, having the ability to handle, pass, shoot, and play defense. All of the 2024 shooters are shit on defense, and all of the defenders have crap 3 pointers.

That's the thing about this draft. There don't seem to have any guy with potential as a complete or all around player. That's mainly one or two qualities/ several big flaws players.

That's why, despite his playmaking issues, I guess Risacher, as a long, somehow versatile guy with good defense and a shooting you hope could develop as a reliable/good one to get a solid, two way starting wing if everything goes well, and Sarr as a mobile, rim protector, are that high, and potentially top 2.

I won't go as far as talking about guarantees, but they are the closest, or the least far, to have shown palpable elements you can imagine would transalte in the NBA and make them valuable contributors... It's a bit more uncertain for the other prospects.

[mo7888]

I wouldn't. Parker looked very fast and I knew he would be something special by his ability to blow past people.

I agree with you here. Parker over Dilly at their respective ages, and it isn't even close....

[Ice009]

He’s no where near TP athletic ability - he wont be getting to the rim and putting pressure on teams like that. It’s a huge reason why his value is questionable. A small guard that’s not an Uber athlete that is not a 3 level scorer but one that relies on jump shots without the ability to penetrate consistently like a TP

TP was incredible with his speed and ability to get to the rim and finish. I kind of wanted Gary Payton (Didn't the Sonics put in an offer one of those seasons?), but TP showed that he has "it" in the playoff series against the Sonics going right at Gary Payton. TP also had toughness from the get-go. I don't know the players from this upcoming draft well enough to say if any of them can do what TP did his first couple of years in the league against the competition he went against.

Brings me to an interesting question, I usually look at SGs when looking at this category because they can also finish over the top, but where would you guys rank TP as far as guards, or just PGs go that can penetrate at will and take it to the rack and finish? I remember a few times TP finished as one of the top point scorers in the paint out of all NBA players for some seasons.

I never really think about PGs in this category as they usually can't finish over the top with a dunk or usually have the strength to power through contact and finish, but prime TP has to be up there as far as penetrating and finishing in the paint go.

For shooting guards, the past 30 years or so, I'd have Michael Jordan, Manu, D-Wade as some of the best/most feared penetrators in their athletic primes. These guys in their primes all took it to the rack hard and were looking to score and finish, if they got the foul, it was a bonus, they weren't driving just to draw the foul only. Not sure who I'd have after Manu and D-Wade changed their play style due to injuries/athletic decline 2011/2012 onward, not sure who took over the mantle those seasons. Maybe James Harden, but I find it hard to consider prime James Harden one of them (he is a candidate), but he was looking more to draw contact and/or look for touch fouls more than finishing regardless of the contact. He also took a ton of threes, so again, that kind of takes him out of it for me. A prime Lebron? Maybe more a bully with his physical size rather than a penetrator.

[heyheymymy]

Parker played pro league in France before the draft

People knew he was going to be special, he turned down NCAA offers to go back to play in France for another year.

[lefty]

Parker played pro league in France before the draft

People knew he was going to be special, he turned down NCAA offers to go back to play in France for another year.
Good, not special

Wemby is sipecial

[DPG21920]

TP was incredible with his speed and ability to get to the rim and finish. I kind of wanted Gary Payton (Didn't the Sonics put in an offer one of those seasons?), but TP showed that he has "it" in the playoff series against the Sonics going right at Gary Payton. TP also had toughness from the get-go. I don't know the players from this upcoming draft well enough to say if any of them can do what TP did his first couple of years in the league against the competition he went against.

Brings me to an interesting question, I usually look at SGs when looking at this category because they can also finish over the top, but where would you guys rank TP as far as guards, or just PGs go that can penetrate at will and take it to the rack and finish? I remember a few times TP finished as one of the top point scorers in the paint out of all NBA players for some seasons.

I never really think about PGs in this category as they usually can't finish over the top with a dunk or usually have the strength to power through contact and finish, but prime TP has to be up there as far as penetrating and finishing in the paint go.

For shooting guards, the past 30 years or so, I'd have Michael Jordan, Manu, D-Wade as some of the best/most feared penetrators in their athletic primes. These guys in their primes all took it to the rack hard and were looking to score and finish, if they got the foul, it was a bonus, they weren't driving just to draw the foul only. Not sure who I'd have after Manu and D-Wade changed their play style due to injuries/athletic decline 2011/2012 onward, not sure who took over the mantle those seasons. Maybe James Harden, but I find it hard to consider prime James Harden one of them (he is a candidate), but he was looking more to draw contact and/or look for touch fouls more than finishing regardless of the contact. He also took a ton of threes, so again, that kind of takes him out of it for me. A prime Lebron? Maybe more a bully with his physical size rather than a penetrator.

TP is definitely in elite company when it comes to guard finishing at the rim.

[RC_Drunkford]

From all of the tape that I have seen on him I really like him and I think he might be one of the most talented players in this draft but I am concerned about his hight and light frame working for him at the NBA level

He could be Sexton, but he also could be Maxey/Brunson. You just take a swing at him and hope he develops into the latter.

[OldMan88]

TP always amazed me the way he’d drive into the lane, disappearing into a crowd of defenders, only to see the ball pop up & into the basket as he came squirting out of the crowd falling down on his backside. Then he’d just get up & run back to the other end, or to the FT line for his +1.

[ChumpDumper]

Good, not special
Classic spurfan take.

[scott]

JPB: So Spurstalk thinks Dilly is better than Trae Young and Tony Parker...

Spurstalk: No one is saying that!!!

Also Spurstalk: Here are all the reasons why Dilly is better than Trae Young and Tony Parker...

[lefty]

Classic spurfan take.
Spursy

[TD 21]

He could be Sexton, but he also could be Maxey/Brunson. You just take a swing at him and hope he develops into the latter.

Sexton finished 55th (21st offensively) in the league in EPM (Estimated Plus-Minus), considered one of the best publicly available advanced "catch-all" metrics by stat geeks in and out of the league alike.

Sure, he's not much of a play maker or defender and he doesn't shoot enough 3's, but he's a legitimately explosive/efficient scorer.

[Mr. Body]

JPB: So Spurstalk thinks Dilly is better than Trae Young and Tony Parker...

Spurstalk: No one is saying that!!!

Also Spurstalk: Here are all the reasons why Dilly is better than Trae Young and Tony Parker...

I mean, I think Trae Young completely sucks and will always suck. I get why he gets butts in the seats, but he's a pure loser. Especially if it took trading for him with players and picks, absolutely not. But even if I could get either player with the #4 pick this year, I'd take Dillingham. He's not a ball-stopper (if he may be ball-dominant, a potential problem), he makes snap decisions when Trae doesn't, and he at least has some hope of improving on defense. And he won't cost $40-$60 million a year.

I've never really compared him to Tony Parker, personally. I do think Rob can develop a floater game and improve his interior scoring, although Parker was at another level. They're just very different players.

[RC_Drunkford]

Sexton finished 55th (21st offensively) in the league in EPM (Estimated Plus-Minus), considered one of the best publicly available advanced "catch-all" metrics by stat geeks in and out of the league alike.

Sure, he's not much of a play maker or defender and he doesn't shoot enough 3's, but he's a legitimately explosive/efficient scorer.

Yeah I'm not really comparing Dillingham to anybody, I'm just saying he might be a microwave scorer off the bench or he might be our PG of the future. It's hard to predict, but he is a walking bucket. And although he's short, he's so shifty and got such a good handle that he can always create separation and get his shot off. How efficient he can be at the rim will likely be the key on how high his ceiling is.

[Mitch Cumsteen]

The thing about Parker is that he couldn’t shoot when he came into the league. He could get wherever he wanted to because of his speed, but his jumper was broken. Terrible release, wonky rotation. He probably wouldn’t even get drafted today. All those guys who can’t shoot in this draft look like Klay Thompson next to 19 year old TP.